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**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2010, 12:19 PM

NBA Playoff Betting Preview – Sunday Edition

The second day of Commissioner David Stern’s tournament has the most talked about enigma starting the day, the Los Angeles Lakers. The basketball world is waiting to see how Kobe and company will perform against a young and inspired bunch from Oklahoma City, led by Kevin Durant. Charlotte returns to the postseason under a different nickname, with Orlando a significant favorite. Another battle of Texas commences in Dallas, with the Mavericks and Spurs going at it again. The final first round matchup has the Phoenix Suns focused on Portland, who lost their top player. All lines courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City

You would have thought the Clippers were getting the No. 1 seed in the West with all the negative talk about the Lakers. Los Angeles has been getting much the same reception as Whitney Houston’s concert stops, nobody’s impressed. Andrew Bynum is not healthy; Kobe Bryant is showing the affects of compounding injuries and his shooting has been off. Derek Fisher can still make big shots, but is having trouble guarding his own shadow and the trio of Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and Pau Gasol are noted “thinkers”, not always bringing A-game when needed and wanted. The Lakers have been uninspired for over a month and are 6-10 ATS and have covered back-to-back spreads once since Feb. 11.

Oklahoma City is everything the Lakers are not, young, eager and lacking playoff experience. Phil Jackson lobbed the first salvo, wondering how the NBA’s youngest scoring champ Kevin Durant gets to the line so frequently, insinuating preferential treatment from the zebras. (This from the same coach whose had Bryant and Michael Jordan during his career, I digress) But Durant took the bait and replied, professionally, yet made it more an issue by commenting. The Thunder are not all about Durant, as Russell Westbrook is among the top six point guards in the league and Thabo Sefolosha is undervalued within coach Scott Brooks schemes.

OKC did lose four of last six to draw the defending champs, however they won 50 games (48-34 ATS) and showed uncommon poise with 23-18 and 26-15 ATS road record. The Lakers won three of four, but in only meeting in 2010, the Thunder struck with 16-point shellacking at home over L.A. If the Lakers continue to play with indifference, this series will have some length to it and Ford Center faithful will be loud and proud for first taste postseason action.

Pick- L.A. Lakers (-800) in six over Oklahoma City (+500)

(2)Orlando vs (7) Charlotte

The Magic backed up their trip to last year’s NBA Finals with a strong regular season and look to duplicate that feat while creating a better ending. Orlando presents matchup problems for most teams as traditional defensive-mentality is to play inside the three-point circle and help off the wings and clog the lane. The Magic launch a myriad (most in NBA history this season) of three-pointers which frees up Dwight Howard to operate by himself in the paint, with an offensive game that is modestly improved from the past. Orlando is a good, not great defensive team individually, but having Howard as the last line of defense is the great equalizer, which is why the Magic led the league in field goal percentage defense. Focal point for Orlando will be Vince Carter, since Hedu Turkoglu was so clutch in last year’s playoffs; can an aging Vin-sanity play at the same level or beyond?

Charlotte is in the playoffs for the first time in their second spin as NBA franchise, now headed by Michael Jordan’s group. On paper or computer screen this doesn’t appear to be much of matchup and it might not be, but the Bobcats have angry dudes who will give their all. Gerald Wallace is a proven All-Star and contributes in all facets of the game. Stephen Jackson is big time and loves the moment as Dallas will attest to two seasons ago when they lost to Golden State with Jackson being one of the key components why. With Larry Brown as coach, Charlotte will be prepared and his players don’t hate him, yet, which means more inspired play. The larger question is will Brown end up coaching the entire series or be working on resume at Ladders, since he was quoted as saying this is where he wants to finish coaching career. (Nod if you’ve heard that before five or more times). The Bobcats are 23-11 ATS against top-level teams with 70 percent or higher win percentage the last three years.

This isn’t a good match for Charlotte, having lost 10 of 11 to Orlando (5-6 ATS) and if they lose the first two games in Mickey’s town, will the fickle Bobcats fan even bother to sellout two games for their team? The Magic are magical 19-3 and 15-6-1 ATS since March 1.

Pick- Orlando (-1000) in five over Charlotte (+600)
(2) Dallas vs (7) San Antonio

This marks the fifth time the Mavericks and Spurs will square off in a Texas tussle in the playoffs with Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki on opposite benches. Without Bruce Bowen, the animosity has subsided in the last couple of years between these division rivals, but that could heat up again in this series, considering what is at stake.

Dallas had the perfect opportunity to already be a NBA champion in 2006, but gagged a 2-0 lead in the finals against Miami, losing the next four contests. Since that time, owner Mark Cuban has been patient until this season, believing the pieces were in place for title run. This year he jettisoned players he felt were no longer committed to being champions like Josh Howard and retooled roster with the likes of Caron Butler and Brendon Haywood, giving them size and more scoring versatility. Here is what is troubling about the Mavs. Despite winning 55 games and being the second seed, their score differential is only +2.7, the lowest of the Western teams in the playoffs. Dallas is sixth (among West playoff teams) in home court record at 28-13 and they were 30th against the spread at home with 10-29-2 ATS mark.

San Antonio on the other hand manufactured (in the truest since) a 50-win campaign. This is no longer Tim Duncan’s team, his aching knees and aging body are ineffective in back to back games and his post-moves are noticeably slower, not getting off shots like he used to and drawing fouls. That puts the ball in Tony Parker’s hands, but he too has been on the shelf, which led to Manu Ginobili drinking from the fountain of youth and being the leading performer in the second half. The “Spurs way” is next man up and George Hill has been invaluable at guard. In a slower series, this could mean rookie DeJuan Blair could have a bigger impact for San Antonio squad that was 6.3 points better defensively after the All-Star break.

If ever a series had seven games written all over it, this is the one. Let’s go with the upset picking San Antonio, with road team winning four times outright in this physical tight series that marks the end of Mavericks as we know them.

Pick- San Antonio (+135) in seven over Dallas (-165)
(3) Phoenix vs (6) Portland

For the NBA bettor who prefers to play a streak, Phoenix is the perfect team to match the group Power Station’s 1985 hit “Some Like it Hot”. The Suns closed the season 14-2 (11-4-1 ATS) and the two defeats were a five point loss at equally hungry Oklahoma City and failing to ignite at Milwaukee on the last night of four road games in five nights. Their last six wins have been pulverizing, winning by 13.8 points a game. Phoenix tried to move Amare Stoudemire before the All-Star game, but couldn’t find the right compensation. This ended up being the reason the Suns had the best record in the NBA at 23-6 (20-8-1) after the break. Stoudemire was the second half MVP and he and Nash resembled Stockton and Malone running the pick and roll whenever they needed points. Phoenix still runs high-octane offense (110.2 PPG) but plays enough defense (11th in field goal percentage) and has solid core of frontcourt role players who do their job expertly.

It’s unfortunate, a visit this past week to Dictionary.com to look up the word “snake-bit” revealed a picture, that of the Portland Trailblazers. Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla and now Brandon Roy are all lost due to injury. Portland’s one chance is to control the action in the frontcourt and lane area with Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge. If they can maintain a steady flow of points near the bucket, that creates space for Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster and Nicolas Batum among others. The Trailblazers do have depth and were 25-14-2 ATS on the road.

With Roy, this could have been one of the most entertaining first round matchups as Portland had taken four out five, however with the way Phoenix is playing and the Blazers without their best player, chances of upset are greatly diminished. One should not expect Portland to roll over like a dog, they can run with the Suns in short stretches and will look to frustrate Nash with ball pressure and control tempo.

Pick- Phoenix (-600) in six over Portland (+400)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2010, 12:49 PM

Grabbing edge or survival Sunday in NHL

In today’s Stanley Cup contests, four series commence in new locations, all tied up at 1-1, the most appealing of the group is Phoenix paying a visit to Motown, who will have two tries to regain home ice advantage. The first is nationally televised tilt on NBC.

You work all year for the playoffs and home ice, and in 60 minutes it can disappear as Chicago found out. Thus far all four higher seeds that lost initial game have come back to even series, can the Blackhawks do the same?

Phoenix at Detroit 3:00E NBC

The Coyotes knew they couldn’t match the speed and skill of the Red Wings in end to end hockey which is the very reason they lost 7-4 in Game 2. Phoenix has to button down the defense and play like they did in the series opener or they will trail for the first time in the series.

“We know when we play our game we’re capable of beating anybody, but we didn’t play our game,” captain Shane Doan said. “I’m sure it was fun to watch, but it wasn’t our type of game.” Phoenix is 15-6 off a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons.

The high-scoring affair didn’t bother Detroit, who has won 50 consecutive games when scoring four or more goals in the postseason. “It sure helps winning the game last night instead of coming back being down 2-0,” Detroit captain Nicklas Lidstrom said Saturday. “We’re happy with the split.”

The Red Wings were mediocre 25-11 by their standards at Joe Louis Arena this season, however won eight of last nine in their own rink and are 45-10 in home games after scoring four goals or more in their previous game since 2007-08 campaign.

Sportsbook.com has Detroit as -200 money line favorites, with total Ov5. The Wings are 24-4 after a blowout win by three goals or more and 9-0 UNDER at home after two exact road encounters. Phoenix has one victory is last six tries at “The Joe” and is 8-2 UNDER in road conflicts after both teams scored four goals or more.

Nashville at Chicago 8:30E TSN

The first contest was a battle of playoff newbies in net. Both played well for two periods, with Chicago leading 1-0. J.P. Dumont of Nashville flipped the puck towards the Blackhawks net and goalie Antti Niemi let the rubber play him and the game was tied.

That fluky goal gave the Predators the confidence to believe and Chicago was stunned and caved in. “I think that lucky bounce gave us momentum and gave us that hope, and I think we kind of got going after that,” Predators defenseman Shea Weber said. “That kind of woke us up.”

In less than 20 minutes the Hawks has lost home ice advantage and is faced with uncertainly and must win situation.

“I saw it coming to the net. I don’t know how it bounced or why,” Neimi said. “It had nothing to do with the ice. … It was just a terrible goal. We were handling things that far really good in the game.”

That was Nashville’s first postseason road win in 11 tries and they are 7-2 against good defensive teams conceding 27 or fewer shots on goal and allowing less than 15 percent on the power play.

“They get you when you are trying to make plays in the middle, they all come back really hard and when you try to go east-west, they end up taking it the other way,” Chicago’s Andrew Ladd said Saturday, describing the Predators’ defense.

Ladd and his teammates are -260 money line favorites with total Ov5 and are 16-4 after consecutive home games and 12-5 UNDER after allowing two goals or more in the third period last game this season.

Nashville goes for decisive lead in the series and has four wins in previous 11 visits to the Windy City and is 19-11 OVER having won two of three.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2010, 12:57 PM

Lakers-Thunder Outlook

No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 8 Oklahoma City Thunder

Series Price: L.A. Lakers -700, Oklahoma City +560

Series Format: L.A. Lakers, 2-2-1-1-1

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
50-32 48-34 27-14 23-18 43-36-3 101.5 98.0
57-25 33-46-3 34-7 23-18 35-46-1 101.7 97.0

2009-10 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
03/26/10 L.A. Lakers 75 @ Oklahoma City 91 (+1) UNDER 200
12/22/09 Oklahoma City 108 @ L.A. Lakers 111 (-10) OVER 197.5
11/22/09 Oklahoma City 85 @ L.A. Lakers 101 (-10.5) UNDER 200
11/03/09 L.A. Lakers 101 (-7) @ Oklahoma City 98 - OT OVER 193.5

Skinny: The Lakers have had the top seed in the Western Conference locked up for awhile now, but the Champs found out on Monday that they would take on the upstart Thunder in the first round. Oklahoma City slipped to the eighth spot down the stretch, despite an impressive season in which the Thunder won 50 games.

Kobe Bryant sat out the final two regular season games to give himself a rest from the rough 82-game stretch. The Lakers' star will be set for the playoffs, as the team is hoping to get center Andrew Bynum back in the lineup after missing 13 games with an Achilles injury. Los Angeles stormed out of the gate with a 28-6 mark through the first two months of the season, as Phil Jackson's squad finished 29-18 since January 6

The Thunder is led by scoring champ Kevin Durant, who has paced this young Oklahoma City squad to its best record since the 2004-05 season in Seattle. For the first time since that 52-win campaign, the Thunder has held its opponents to below 100 ppg (97.9). OKC had opportunities to finish higher than the eighth seed, but Scott Brooks' team dropped four of five down the stretch, including losses to the Jazz, Nuggets, and Blazers.

The Lakers captured three of four regular season meetings, but the Thunder managed to cover three times as underdogs. Los Angeles edged OKC by three points twice, including an overtime triumph at the Ford Center in early November. The Thunder blew a 12-point lead at Staples Center on December 22 in a 111-108 setback, but cashed tickets as ten-point underdogs. OKC finally broke through against L.A. with a 91-75 pasting of the Lakers at home in late March, limiting the Lakers to 34 first-half points.

Gambling Notes: The Lakers won't likely be laying double-digits in this series, so we'll focus on a more limited sample. Los Angeles finished 6-9-2 ATS when laying single-digits at Staples Center, while 12 of 17 games went 'under' the total. The road wasn't friendly for Lakers' backers as Los Angeles compiled a 6-11-1 ATS mark as 'chalk' of less than six points on the highway.

Oklahoma City was a fantastic play as a road underdog this season, going 18-8 ATS when receiving points away from the Ford Center. If the Thunder falls in the series opener, keep an eye on OKC in Game 2 as the Thunder went 9-3 ATS as a road 'dog off a loss (8-4 to the 'over'). Despite knocking off the Lakers in March, OKC was just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS as a home underdog, while breaking 100 points only once.

Series Outlook: The Thunder will be a tough out, especially with Durant able to score at will. Once Bryant and Bynum are back in the lineup, the Lakers will revert back to the team that started the season on fire. Oklahoma City can steal a game at Staples Center since the Thunder isn't scared of the highway. The Lakers will advance on, but it will take the Champs six games to move onto the second round and eliminate the feisty Thunder.

**jt4545** · 04-18-2010, 12:57 PM

Thanks and good luck

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2010, 12:58 PM

Magic-Bobcats Outlook

**No. 2 Orlando vs. 7 Charlotte

Series Price: Orlando -900 Charlotte +550

Series Format: Orlando 2-2-1-1-1

Head to Head Comparisons
Team SU ATS Home Away O/U PPG DPPG
59-23 44-35 34-7 25-16 35-47 102.8 95.3
44-38 44-37 31-10 13-28 43-38 95.3 93.8

2009-10 Head to Head Meetings
Nov. 11, 2009 Orlando (-4) 93 at Charlotte 81 UNDER 182
Nov. 16, 2009 Orlando (-12) 97 vs. Charlotte 91 OVER 184
Jan. 23, 2010 Orlando (-1) 106 at Charlotte 95 (OT) OVER 190.5
Mar. 14, 2010 Charlotte (+8.5) 96 vs. Orlando 89 UNDER 189

Skinny: Charlotte’s first postseason trip in franchise history could be forgotten quickly when they meet the second-overall seed in the playoffs, Orlando. The Magic are the defending Eastern Conference champions and some might argue that this year’s squad has improved from last season.

The addition of Vince Carter (16.6 PPG) and Matt Barnes (8.8 PPG) brings experience and toughness to an already sound squad, led by Dwight Howard (18.3 PPG, 13.2 RPG). Plus the team has a healthy Jameer Nelson (5.4 PPG) running the point this postseason.

Howard’s ability to command double teams in the paint leaves the outside wide open, which is Orlando’s strength. The Magic posted a league-record 841 bombs from 3-point land during the regular season. The club has eight legitimate players that can hoist up the long ball, including Rashard Lewis (168), who led the team in 3-pointers made. If needed, head coach Stan Van Gundy can use all 12 players on his team, which tells you how deep Orlando is.

Most pundits believe Larry Brown and the Bobcats will let Howard get his points and not double-team. Charlotte will use 18 fouls from Tyson Chandler, Nazr Mohammed and Theo Ratliff to try to contain the All-Star center. The trio has done a nice job all year on the defensive side, but the team gets nothing from them offensively.

That duty goes to Stephen Jackson (21.1 PPG) and Gerald Wallace (18.2 PPG). The pair has played well together and Jackson’s scoring punch was a major reason why Charlotte is in this playoff position. Wallace’s game is driving to the basket and getting to the foul line, while Jackson (118 treys made) like’s to shoot the long ball. Unfortunately for Wallace, the paint will be clogged up by Howard and Jackson’s 3-point accuracy (33.4%) is very shaky at times. The Bobcats do have some role players in Boris Diaw (11.3 PPG) and Tyrus Thomas (10.1 PPG) that have playoff experience, but they’re both limited offensively too.

During the regular season, the Magic beat the Bobcats three out of the four meetings, but gamblers might want to toss out the first two wins by Orlando back in November. It's hard to ignore the fact that the Magic stifled Charlotte to 81 and 91 points in the two wins, but that was before the Jackson trade from Golden State.

Captain Jack did play in the two games in 2010 and his presence played a part. In January, the Bobcats fell in overtime at home (95-106) but they showed some toughness to force the extra session after being down 10 heading into the fourth quarter.

Larry Brown's team proved that the effort in January was no fluke, as his squad captured a 96-89 win at Orlando on Mar. 14. Jackson finished with 28 points on 10-of-20 shooting to go with six rebounds and six assists in the victory.

Gambling Notes: Most sportsbooks opened the Magic up as 9 ½-point home favorites for Game 1 against the Bobcats, which means that they should be favored when they head to Charlotte for Game's 3 and 4 as well.

It's hard to overlook Orlando's solid record at home (34-7 SU, 23-16 ATS), plus Charlotte has the least amount of road wins (13) out of all the playoff teams. The 'Cats did manage to produce a 20-18 ATS mark, but it's hard to grab points on a team that loses 70 percent of the time when they travel.

It will be interesting to see how Charlotte responds at home, especially after the first two games. Brown and company have gone 31-10 SU and 23-18 ATS on their homecourt, which includes a 7-5 ATS mark as home 'dogs. While those numbers are strong, Orlando's road ledger (25-16 SU, 20-17 ATS) is one of the best around. Most would figure the Magic to be laying anywhere from 3-6 points on the road, and they've gone 10-4 ATS in those situations.

The total is hovering between 187 and 188 for Game 1 and don’t be surprised to see this number drop as the series continues. Before Jackson joined the ‘Cats, it wasn’t surprising to see some of their games with totals listed in the seventies (170-179). Even though the Magic were deadly from 3-point land during the regular season, the team saw the ‘under’ go 47-34. Also, Charlotte does put defense first but it managed to post a 43-38 ‘over’ ledger.

Outlook: Unless you have deep pockets, betting on Orlando to win this best-of-seven series isn’t a sound investment and even then it’s probably risky. The Magic were once an easy one and done in the NBA playoffs but that’s changed since Van Gundy took over on the sidelines. He hasn’t lost a first round series in his two seasons, but also hasn’t swept anybody either. Brown hasn’t danced in the postseason since his days with the Pistons (2004-05) but it’s hard to see him get swept in his first visit back.

While it's good to see some new blood in the NBA playoffs, Charlotte is overmatched in a lot of areas against Orlando. The only chance the Bobcats can keep this series competitive is if they hit a high percentage from the outside and get Howard into foul trouble. Unfortunately, Charlotte is the third-worst shooting team in the playoffs and they don't have a true post-up player that can threaten Howard. Look for Orlando to break out the broom if they can get past Game 3 in Charlotte or finish it off in Game 5 a few days later at home. If this goes to six or seven, it would be very surprising.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2010, 12:59 PM

Mavericks-Spurs Outlook

No. 2 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs

Series Price: Dallas -150, San Antonio +130

Series Format: Dallas, 2-2-1-1-1

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
50-32 44-37-1 29-12 21-20 37-43-2 101.4 96.3
55-27 37-44-1 28-13 27-14 43-39 102.0 99.3

2009-10 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
04/14/10 San Antonio 89 @ Dallas 96 (-5) UNDER 199
01/08/10 Dallas 112 (+4.5) @ San Antonio 103 OVER 194.5
11/18/09 San Antonio 94 @ Dallas 99 (-3) - OT UNDER 196
11/11/09 Dallas 83 @ San Antonio 92 (+1.5) OVER 209

Skinny: These two Texas rivals get together for the second straight postseason as the Spurs look to avenge last year's first round defeat to the Mavs in five games. Dallas wrapped up the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs by knocking off San Antonio on Wednesday, as the Spurs fell down to the seventh spot.

The Mavs were a struggling squad heading towards the All-Star Break, dropping five of six games. Dallas pulled the trigger on a deal that changed its bad luck into good fortune with the acquisitions of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from Washington for Josh Howard. Following a loss at Oklahoma City, the Mavs ran off 13 straight victories to take control of the Southwest Division. Dallas concluded the season with five consecutive wins, while covering each game in this span.

The Spurs may not have home-court advantage in this round, but San Antonio has played solid basketball since the end of February. Gregg Popovich's club won 18 of its final 26 games, while going 12-4 with Tony Parker out due to a hand injury. San Antonio couldn't get over the hump in the division, as the Spurs lost the tiebreaker for the sixth spot by losing two of three to the Blazers.

Dallas took three of the four regular season meetings with San Antonio, including the season finale victory at home. The Spurs played without Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, as San Antonio fell by a 96-89 count. The Mavs edged the Spurs in the other home contest in overtime, 99-94 back in November as three-point favorites. The two teams split the two matchups at the AT&T Center, as San Antonio won without Parker and Duncan in mid-November, 92-83. The Spurs drilled 14 three-pointers in that victory, while cashing as 1 ½-point home 'dogs. Dallas avenged that loss with a huge fourth-quarter rally in early January, outscoring San Antonio, 42-23 for a 112-103 triumph.

Gambling Notes: The Mavs were a notoriously horrible home favorite this season, going through a 2-26-1 ATS stretch from November 20 through March 20. Dallas finished strong as home 'chalk,' by covering four of its final five. Rick Carlisle's squad was money on the road down the stretch, cashing ten of the last 12 on the highway.

The Spurs ended the season by compiling a 9-2 ATS mark at home, while finishing 'over' the total in seven of the last ten at the AT&T Center. San Antonio picked up several quality road underdog victories over the last month including wins over the Lakers, Celtics, Nuggets, Thunder, and Heat.

Dallas covered in all four victories in the playoff series last season, even though San Antonio did own home-court advantage. For the exception of the 105-84 Game 2 win, the Spurs were held to under 100 points in each of the four losses.

Series Outlook: This will be one of the two most competitive series in the Western Conference, along with Denver and Utah. These teams know each other very well, and the Spurs have been at this stage plenty of times. With the pick-up of Butler in February, the Mavs now own one of the most complete starting lineups in the league, to go along with Jason Terry coming off the bench. San Antonio will give Dallas everything they have, but the Mavs will come out on top in six games.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2010, 01:00 PM

Suns-Blazers Outlook

No. 3 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 6 Portland Trailblazers

Series Price: Phoenix -550, Portland +450

Series Format: Phoenix, 2-2-1-1-1

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG
50-32 44-36-2 26-15 24-17 43-39 110.2 105.3
54-28 48-33-1 32-9 22-19 36-43-3 98.1 94.8

2009-10 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
03/21/10 Portland 87 @ Phoenix 93 (-6) UNDER 207.5
02/10/10 Portland 108 (+9.5) @ Phoenix 101 UNDER 209.5
12/17/09 Phoenix 102 @ Portland 105 (-1.5) OVER 203.5

Skinny: The Suns finished off a strong season by going 22-5 the last 27 games to wrap up the third seed in the Western Conference playoffs. Phoenix takes on a Portland squad that is down its best player with Brandon Roy missing the postseason due to torn meniscus in his right knee.

Phoenix bounced back after missing the playoffs last season by picking up 54 victories, the fifth time in the last six years in which the Suns have racked up at least 50 wins. The Suns turned it on following the All-Star Break as the Amar'e Stoudemire trade rumors were put to bed. The five losses suffered over the final two months of the season all came to playoff teams, while going 19-7-1 ATS in this stretch. The Suns led the league once again in PPG with 110.2, as Alvin Gentry's club also finished atop the league in FG% and 3-point FG%.

The Blazers are used to playing without Roy, as Portland finished 8-9 SU and 10-7 ATS in the 17 games with their leading scorer out. Portland makes its second straight playoff appearance after getting eliminated in six games by Houston in last season's first round. The Blazers helped themselves with the acquisitions of Andre Miller and Marcus Camby to give a solid veteran presence to this young squad. Portland was not scared to play away from the Rose Garden, finishing 24-17 on the highway.

These teams played only three times this season as Portland grabbed two victories. The Blazers rallied late at home to upend the Suns in mid-December, 105-102, thanks to 29 points off the bench from Jerryd Bayless. Portland stunned Phoenix in the Valley as 9 ½-point underdogs without Roy, 108-101, prior to the All-Star Break as the Blazers shot a scorching 58% from the floor. The Suns avoided the season sweep with a defensive-minded 93-87 win over the Blazers in late March. Both teams shot below 40% from the field, as Phoenix outscored Portland, 29-19 in the final quarter to pull out the victory.

Gambling Notes: The Suns were money as home favorites since late February, going 12-2-1 ATS, including victories over the Spurs, Jazz, Hawks, and Nuggets twice. Phoenix was solid as single-digit home 'chalk,' compiling a 17-7 SU and 15-8-1 ATS mark. The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings in this series, while going 5-2-1 ATS.

Nate McMillan's team went 15-6-1 ATS since January 20 on the road, including an 8-3-1 ATS ledger when receiving points away from the Rose Garden in this span. The Blazers didn't finish strong at home, putting together a 7-7 ATS mark since the start of February, but six games of those came without Roy. The 'over' hit at a nice rate as a road underdog, going 15-8, while getting drilled in five of seven instances with Roy injured.

Series Outlook: Playing without Roy will obviously be a hurdle for Portland, but the Blazers have proven they can hang around with their leading scorer hurt. The Blazers have held their own against the Suns, but beating Phoenix four times will be a challenge. Phoenix will likely advance in six games, even though the Suns have to work for every win against this tough-minded Blazers squad.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2010, 01:01 PM

Playoff Results - First Round

First Round Results

Favorites have gone 7-8
Home teams have gone 7-8
The 'under' is 6-6-3 through 15 games
Favorites that have won are 2-5 on the puck-line

Home Visitor Time/Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER
Wed Apr 14, 2010

Penguins Senators (+180) 5-4 UNDERDOG OVER 5.5
Devils Flyers (+145) 2-1 UNDERDOG UNDER 5
Coyotes (+100) Red Wings 3-2 UNDERDOG PUSH 5
Sharks Avalanche (+200 2-1 UNDERDOG UNDER 5.5

Thu Apr 15, 2010
Capitals Canadiens (+240) 3-2 UNDERDOG UNDER 6
Sabres (-155) Bruins 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5
Canucks (-185) Kings 3-2 (OT) FAVORITE UNDER 5.5

Fri Apr 16, 2010
Penguins (-300) Senators 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER 5.5
Devils (-180) Flyers 5-3 FAVORITE OVER 5
Blackhawks Predators (+210) 4-1 UNDERDOG PUSH 5
Coyotes Red Wings (-135) 7-4 FAVORITE OVER 5
Sharks (-270) Avalanche 6-5 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 5.5

Sat Apr 17, 2010
Sabres Bruins (+135) 5-3 UNDERDOG OVER 5
Capitals (-360) Canadiens 6-5 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 6
Canucks Kings (+160) 3-2 (OT) UNDERDOG PUSH

Sun Apr 18, 2010

Red Wings Coyotes 3:00 p.m. EDT - -
Flyers Devils 6:00 p.m. EDT - -
Senators Penguins 6:30 p.m. EDT - -
Blackhawks Predators 8:30 p.m. EDT - -
Avalanche Sharks 9:30 p.m. EDT

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2010, 01:58 PM

Mets at Cardinals

This week’s prime-time game for Sunday takes us to St. Louis, where the Cardinals are poised to host the Mets in the series finale of this three-game set at Busch Stadium.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Tony Larussa’s club as a minus-270 favorite with a total of 8 ½ ‘under’ (minus-120). As of early this morning, most betting shops had St. Louis adjusted into the minus 240-260 range. Bettors can take the Cards on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) at a minus-110 price.

New York (4-7, -397) won a 20-inning marathon by a 2-1 count Saturday. The teams remained scoreless for the first 18 innings until both teams scored a run in the 19th. In the 20th, Jose Reyes plated Angel Pagan with a sacrifice fly.

In the bottom frame, St. Louis (7-4, +178) put a pair of runners on base, but New York starter Mike Pelphrey collected his first career save after inducing a ground-ball out to complete the game that lasted nearly seven hours and saw 19 different pitchers used. The Mets cashed tickets as a slight underdog or for even-money at some books.

Coming off the longest MLB game in two years, both teams would love to get quality starts tonight to give their respective bullpens some rest. That task falls to Adam Wainwright (2-0, 1.20 ERA) for the Cards, who will be hoping to improve on their 3-2 home record.

Wainwright got shelled in his only career appearance against the Mets, giving up four earned runs in only two innings of work. The right-hander threw eight shutout innings against the Astros in his last outing, improving to 8-1 for his career versus the division rivals. Wainwright, who threw 105 pitches against Houston, beat the Reds in his 2010 debut, limiting them to a pair of runs over seven innings.

Jerry Manuel will give the starting nod to John Maine (0-1, 13.50), who hasn’t fared well against St. Louis in the past. The struggling righty is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA in four lifetime starts against the Cards.

St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols, who is hitting .364 after going 2-for-5 and walking four times yesterday, is 5-for-11 off Maine with a pair of homers.

Larussa’s club remains in first place in the NL Central, one game in front of second-place Pittsburgh. The Mets are in the NL East cellar, four games back of division-leading Philadelphia.

The ‘under’ is 8-3 overall for the Cards, 5-0 in their home games. As for the Mets, they have watched the ‘under’ go 6-5 overall, 3-2 in their road assignments.

The first pitch on ESPN is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez threw the first no-hitter in franchise history in last night’s 4-0 Rockies’ win at Atlanta. The two teams will meet in the series finale today at Turner Field. Most spots are listing the Braves as minus-145 favorites.

--The Cards were an abysmal 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position during yesterday’s loss.

--Cubs RHP Ryan Dempster will face the Astros this afternoon at Wrigley Field. The right-hander is 4-10 with a 4.44 career ERA against Houston. The ‘Stros will counter with LHP Wandy Rodriguez, who is 4-4 with a 3.84 lifetime ERA against the Cubbies.

--Milwaukee’s Doug Davis has an excellent 2.91 career ERA against the Nats, but he has a 1-5 record in eight career starts versus Washington.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-18-2010, 01:59 PM

Flat Brew in Milwaukee

Two years ago, the Brewers found themselves in the playoffs for the first time since Ronald Reagan was running the country. Expectations were tempered slightly in 2009 as Milwaukee posted a respectable 80-82 record. Fans were expecting a little lightning to strike Ken Macha’s club this season. And who could argue with them after what they’ve seen from the Brew Crew recently.

What Milwaukee’s supporters weren’t expecting was their team stumbling out of the gate. The Brewers have finished the second full week of the regular season with a 4-7 mark. That doesn’t sound all that terrible in what is a 162-game campaign. The thing that is terrible about how the Crew are playing is that they have lost six of their last eight contests. Perhaps even more depressing is two losses have came against the Cubs (who are garbage) and the Nationals (it should say “awful” on their business cards).

You can’t pin the blame on the offense as they rank ninth team batting average (.271) and are 13th in runs scored (50) in this young season. Ryan Braun is hitting .400 to log in at No. 4 on that list and Casey McGehee is seventh with a .378 average. McGehee even has four homers so far, with Braun right behind him at three round-trippers.

The Brewers’ downfall so far has been what has been happening on the mound. They have a team earned run average of 5.79, which puts them at 28th overall.

I will give Milwaukee some credit in that they tried to bolster its starting rotation. It’s just too bad they tried doing it by adding Doug Davis over the winter. Davis had gone 15-22 in his last two years with the Diamondbacks. Evidently that is good enough for the Brewers to sign him to a one-year, $8.75 Million deal to make him their highest paid player in 2010. He’s proven to be a bigger crook than Bernie Madoff as he’s not lasted more than four innings in two starts. And Davis has given up 10 earned runs in those outings to provide a robust 12.27 ERA.

Dave Bush has had some hard luck in his two starts this season. Bush left the mound on April 14 with a 3-2 lead after working six strong innings against the Cubs. He wound up with no decision as the Brewers wound up losing 7-6 at Wrigley Field as $1.25 road pups to Chicago. In his April 9 start, Bush had a 4-3 lead against St. Louis after pitching 5.2 innings. Milwaukee ended up losing 5-4 as a $1.05 home “chalk” to the Cards.

Bush got screwed in large part to a bullpen that doesn’t have his back. The Brew Crew’s relievers have a collective 3.80 ERA and have given up five home runs (most allowed by a ‘pen in MLB, by the way) en route to two blown saves in four save opportunities.

There are two culprits in the Brewers’ futility in the ‘pen: LaTroy Hawkins and Trevor Hoffman. Hawkins has blown two saves by allowing seven earned runs in 5.1 innings of work. Hoffman has also blown a pair of saves so far this season. The most damning for the longtime Padre coming in the form of a two-run blast by St. Louis’ Nick Stavinoha on April 9.

Is there any hope for gamblers looking to back Milwaukee next week? Yes and no. After wrapping up their three-game set in Washington, the Brewers get a day off before opening a three-game series in Pittsburgh on April 20.

The Brew Crew went 9-5 in 2009 against the Pirates, which is pretty good. What bettors should keep in mind is that they have lost five of their last six contests at PNC Park, losing by at least two runs in four of those five setbacks. The ‘over’ went 9-5 in last year’s clashes between these National League Central foes.

The opening game of against the Pirates will have Bush going up against Charlie Morton. Pittsburgh’s Morton is 0-2 with an ERA of 13.50 so far this season. But people going to the betting window should keep in mind that Milwaukee is 5-7 in Bush’s last 12 road starts with the ‘over’ currently on a 6-0 run.

Another spot to watch out for is the second game of that set when Yovani Gallardo takes on lefty Zach Duke at 7:05 p.m. EDT on Wednesday. The Pirates’ southpaw has done well this year at 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA. But the Brew Crew have gone 7-3 in their last 10 night tilts on the road against lefties with the ‘over’ going 6-4.

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