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**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2010, 01:24 AM

Monday Afternoon Tips

The Monday baseball card involves eight teams playing their home openers, including five during the day. The Phillies will raise their NL pennant flag against the Nationals while the Twins open up Target Field against the Red Sox. We'll begin on the North Side of Chicago with the Cubs and Brewers renewing acquaintances at Wrigley Field.

Brewers at Cubs - 2:20 PM EST

These NL Central rivals have been inconsistent out of the gate, as the Cubs head back to the Friendly Confines following six games on the road. The Brewers began the season facing a pair of playoff teams from a season ago by taking a series from the Rockies while dropping a series to the Cardinals.

Ryan Dempster has seen plenty of success when taking the home mound, but ran into some problems in day starts as a huge favorite. The Cubs dropped three of Dempster's outings under the sun last season as 'chalk' of at least $1.45, including a pair of losses to the White Sox. Dempster opened the season with a solid start against the Braves, scattering three hits in six innings, but the Cubs fell by a 3-2 count. The Cubs won three of Dempster's four starts against the Brewers last season, including both at Wrigley.

Doug Davis looks to bounce back from a shaky Brewers debut. The veteran lefty lasted just four innings while allowing four earned runs and six hits, but the offense bailed out Davis by beating Colorado, 5-4. The southpaw hasn't been afraid of pitching at Wrigley, racking up three quality starts in his last three trips to the North Side. Davis gave up just two earned runs in two outings last season as a member of the Diamondbacks against the Cubs, while winning each time.

The Cubs took 10 of 17 meetings against the Brewers last season, including five of eight matchups at home. Chicago is set as a $1.50 home favorite, but the Cubs are 2-4 the last six home openers.

Nationals at Phillies - 3:05 PM EST

The defending NL Champion Phillies have barely broken a sweat through their first two series, easily taking care of the Nationals and Astros. Washington lost two of the first three to Philadelphia at home to start the season, as the Nats look to avenge that series defeat.

Cole Hamels has owned the Nationals over his career with the Phillies winning six consecutive starts the lefty had made against Washington. The former World Series MVP lasted only five innings in his season debut at Nationals Park by scattering five hits and three runs, but the Phillies came out on top, 8-4. Philadelphia was a money-burning 10-9 last season when Hamels started as a home favorite, losing bettors 7.8 units when backing the lefty.

Jason Marquis was roughed up in his Washington debut, allowing eight hits and six earned runs in four innings of that loss to Hamels and the Phillies. Marquis has always been known as a solid day pitcher, as his teams (Rockies and Cubs) are 5-1 the last six as a road underdog in matinee action.

The Phillies have dominated the Nationals with 16 victories in the last 19 meetings. Washington has had little luck at Citizens Bank Park by dropping eight of the previous nine road meetings in this series, but seven of the last eight have finished 'under' the total. Philadelphia opened as a steep $2.60 home 'chalk,' while the total sits at 9 ½ (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'under').

Red Sox at Twins - 4:10 PM EST

With the Metrodome era now done for the Twins, Minnesota moves into brand-new Target Field and will open up hosting Boston. The Twins have opened the season with five wins in their first seven games, while the Red Sox have split their opening six contests.

Boston will send lefty Jon Lester to the mound, who has struggled against this Twins lineup in his career. Lester has yielded 13 earned runs in three career starts versus Minnesota, while dropping a pair of road starts. The southpaw didn't begin the season strong by lasting just five innings and allowing four earned runs in a 6-4 home loss to the Yankees.

Carl Pavano will christen the mound at Target Field as the Twins' righty was superb in his first start of the season. The veteran gave up six hits and one earned run in seven innings of work as the Twins beat the Angels, 4-2. Pavano was reborn in Minnesota after spending the first half of last season in Cleveland, as the Twins won five of his final seven starts. Pavano shut down the Red Sox at Fenway last May as a member of the Indians with a 9-2 victory as a $1.50 underdog.

The Red Sox claimed four of six meetings last season as the two clubs split four games in Minneapolis. Boston is listed as a $1.45 road favorite while the total is set at 9.

Astros at Cardinals - 4:15 PM EST

Houston is the lone winless team in baseball at 0-6 after getting swept by both San Francisco and Philadelphia at home. The road may be the cure for the Astros, but ending their losing ways won't be easy against the defending division champion Cardinals.

Staff co-ace Adam Wainwright takes the mound for the Redbirds, as the righty looks to capitalize following a 6-3 victory over Cincinnati last Wednesday. Wainwright has been automatic against the Astros in his career with St. Louis winning nine of his last ten starts in this series. The 28-year old finished last season with three consecutive losses at Busch Stadium, despite each start being a quality one.

Wandy Rodriguez is known to struggle on the road, as the Astros went 4-8 in the lefty's 12 away underdog starts in 2009. The Houston southpaw was out-dueled by Barry Zito in his last start as the Astros were shut out by the Giants, 3-0. Rodriguez allowed seven hits and three earned runs in six innings, but received no support from his offense. The Astros were a dreadful 1-4 in Rodriguez's five starts against the Cardinals last season, Houston tallied just two runs in three road losses.

St. Louis captured nine of 15 meetings last season, including a 7-2 mark at home. The Cardinals are a hefty $2.20 favorite with the total set at 7 ½.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2010, 07:26 PM

MLB Evening Picks:

Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +132 500 ( POD )
Baltimore - Over 9 500

Cincinnati - 7:10 PM ET Florida -138 500
Florida - Under 7.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:20 PM ET Toronto +119 500
Toronto - Under 8 500

Pittsburgh - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -155 500
San Francisco - Under 8.5 500 ( TOTAL )

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Monday, April 12Game Score Status Pick Amount

Orlando - 7:00 PM ET Orlando -3.5 500 ( POD )
Indiana - Over 210 500

Miami - 7:00 PM ET Miami -3.5 500
Philadelphia - Under 192 500

Toronto - 7:30 PM ET Detroit -2.5 500 ( POD )
Detroit - Over 204 500

Charlotte - 7:30 PM ET Charlotte -5 500
New Jersey - Over 191 500

Washington - 7:30 PM ET Washington +3.5 500
New York - Over 206.5 500

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee +1 500
Milwaukee - Over 189 500 ( TOTAL )

Minnesota - 8:30 PM ET Minnesota +14.5 500
San Antonio - Over 205 500

Memphis - 9:00 PM ET Memphis +11 500
Denver - Over 208.5 500

Oklahoma City - 10:00 PM ET Portland -2 500 ( POD )
Portland - Over 186.5 500

Houston - 10:00 PM ET Sacramento -2 500 ( POD )
Sacramento - Under 210.5 500

Dallas - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers +11 500
L.A. Clippers - Over 196.5 500

Good Luck Gang !

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2010, 08:04 PM

NBA Playoff slotting in Portland tonight

The Oklahoma City Thunder franchise hasn’t won 50 games in five seasons. But at this point, that is a secondary concern for the Thunder. After falling into eighth place in the Western Conference, the Thunder look to even the season series with the surging Portland Trail Blazers, who could be without leading scorer Brandon Roy.

Trying for the franchise’s first 50-win season since the Seattle SuperSonics went 52-30 in 2004-05 and maintaining a one-game lead for the sixth seed, Oklahoma City (49-31, 47-33 ATS) fell 120-117 at lowly Golden State on Sunday despite leading by as many as 20 points in the first half. “When you lose a game like this, especially in the Western Conference, it can drop you two to three spots,” said Thunder coach Scott Brooks, whose team has lost three of four.

The loss dropped the Thunder into a tie with Portland (49-31, 44-34-2 ATS) and San Antonio, but those teams hold the tiebreaker.

“When the playoff seeding takes shape I hope we don’t look back at this game as the one that got away and affected us,” Kevin Durant said after scoring 40 points with 10 rebounds Sunday. “We all know the Western Conference is tough and we need to make sure we take care of games like this. It’s a tough loss for us.” However, Oklahoma City is 25-7 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season and 12-4 against the spread off a road loss.

If the Spurs defeat Western Conference-worst Minnesota on Monday and Oklahoma City loses to the Trail Blazers, the Thunder will be locked into the eighth seed and open the postseason against the defending champion Lakers.

While a victory Monday could help Oklahoma City move away from that undesirable scenario, Portland helped itself avoid that matchup with a 91-88 win at the Lakers on Sunday.

LaMarcus Aldridge had 24 points and 11 rebounds, Marcus Camby scored 10 points with 17 boards and Martell Webster hit three free throws with 3.1 seconds left as the Trail Blazers, winners of 17 of 22 (14-7-1 ATS), were victorious with Roy playing just 11 minutes due to a sore knee.

“We’re hoping that it’s not too serious,” said coach Nate McMillan of Roy, who is scoring a team-high 21.5 points per game. “We decided to hold him (out of) the second half and get some X-rays, and we’ll look at him again (Monday).”

With Roy sidelined with a hamstring injury, the host Trail Blazers lost 89-77 in the Thunder’s last visit to the Rose Garden on Feb. 9, nevertheless, Portland is 10-1 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.

Durant, the league’s leading scorer with 30.1 points per game, had 33 with 11 rebounds in that matchup. He averaged just 22.5 on 26.3 percent shooting in two home losses to Portland this season. Oklahoma City will try to avoid its first three-game road losing streak since Dec. 14-22.

The Trail Blazers need one victory for back-to-back 50-win seasons for the first time since 1999-2001 and they are two-point favorites at Sportsbook.com with total of 186. The Blazers have been playing outstanding defense in allowing 85.7 points per game in last four contests and are 7-0 ATS after three or more consecutive Under’s this season.

Portland is 11-3 UNDER at home in the second half of the season.
The Thunder is striking 18-7 ATS as a road underdog this season and 12-3 OVER in back to back road games over two days.

This Western Conference clash starts at 10:00 Eastern in local TV markets with the UNDER 10-1 in previous meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2010, 08:16 PM

All Systems Go on NBA Monday

It’s the final three days of the regular season in the NBA, which also means it is the last Monday of taking a look at some of the best systems in professional basketball to get the week started. In this last installment, we find five contests that could provide winning systems for the sports bettor to profit from to begin another work week. Sides and totals from Sportsbook.com.

Miami (-4, 193) at Philadelphia

It’s been a miserable year for the 76ers at 27-53 and they’ve been one of the worst home teams in the league at 12-28 and 11-27-2 ATS. Philadelphia is coming off one of its finest offensive performances of the season, scoring 120 points in rout of Memphis, shooting 57 percent from the field. When there is a contest involving two average three point shooting teams (33-36.5 percent) after 42 or games in the season and the home team made 55 percent or more of their shots with the total between 190 and 199.5 points, the UNDER is 33-11.

Orlando (-3.5, 210) at Indiana

There could well be hope next season for the Pacers if the close of this year is any indication of what the future holds. Indiana has won four in a row and 10 of 12 (8-3-1 ATS), shooting the ball with great proficiency at over 47 percent in eight of those games. The Pacers could be a play again since home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, in a matchup involving two defensive teams holding opponents to 43.5 to 45.5 shooting percentage, who commit 14.5 or less turnovers, facing a poor pressure defense (14.5 or fewer turnovers forced), after 42 or more games, they are 40-13 ATS, 75.5 percent the last 14 seasons.

Minnesota (+14, 205.5) at San Antonio

The Spurs have endured a ruthless April schedule, with this being their seventh contest is 11 days and fifth in the last week. San Antonio has made the playoffs with their 49-31 record and would like to get out of eighth slot in the Western Conference; however the Timberwolves might not bring out the best of what the Spurs have to offer. Look to wager against home favorites with win percentage between 60-75 percent playing their fifth game in seven days, facing a team with a losing record. In the previous three seasons, the home chalk is prosaic 5-22 ATS.

Houston (+2.5, 210) at Sacramento

The Kings have lost 14 of the last 18 encounters, which includes 126-108 beat-down by Dallas on Saturday night. When the line is +3 to -3 in April matchups and the home team is off one or more defeats, they are unsightly 41-75 ATS.

Dallas (-11, 198) at L.A. Clippers

It’s been another fruitless campaign for the Clippers with 28-52 record. They are 28th in the NBA in point differential (-6.4), but at least are off a 107-104 triumph over equally inept Golden State. Here we find it is best to play against home teams being outscored by their opponents by six or more points a game, after a close win by three digits or less. Since 1996, this system is tasty 58-20 ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2010, 08:17 PM

A Plateful of Baseball Home Openers

The Major League Baseball season may be a week old, but for several teams the joy of playing before the home fans begins today. Whether the results have been fruitful (Philadelphia 5-1) or less than desirable (Seattle 2-5), for the home town fans, all is forgiven because the boys of summer are back.

Target Field - 4:10E ESPN

The most anticipated home opener is in Minnesota, where the Twins return to the great outdoors after 28 seasons in the Metrodome. The Twins enjoyed as good as home field advantage as any team in baseball, with its speedy carpet and intimidating sound when the joint was two-thirds full or more.

Part of Minnesota’s edge was opposing teams had no use for the place. “I hated that dome,” Red Sox manager Terry Francona said, whose team will be the first opponent in the new park, adding: “You couldn’t see the ball when it went up. You had those speakers hanging off the thing. I felt like I was in an office building.”

Minnesota won five of their first seven games on the road, thanks to outstanding pitching that has allowed just three runs per game. Carl Pavano makes his second start of the year, being a +140 underdog according to Sportsbook.com to Jon Lester and the Red Sox. Pavano is 11-4 as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons (Team's Record), while Lester and Boston is 60-25 on grass fields.

One difficulty the Red Sox have endured is 3-14 record in road games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last three seasons.

Wrigley Field – 2:20E WGN

Baseball returns to the North Side of Chicago at the Friendly Confines for a 95th season. The Cubs are 2-4 to begin 2010 with offense lacking punch and bullpen more giving than a philanthropist. Chicago is batting Mendoza-like .197 as a team and all four losses have come after leading in the game, the last three given away by the bullpen.

Ryan Dempster is a noted fast starter, as he and Cubs teammates are 14-2 at home in the first half of the season the last two years. Chicago is a -155 money line choice and is National League best 145-97 at home since 2007. The Cubs will try to get into Milwaukee’s bullpen, which blew two saves over the weekend to St. Louis, at least coming back to win yesterday 8-7. The Brewers are 4-15 after a blown blew a save since last year.

Citizens Bank Park -3:05E MASN

The Phillies look every bit as good as the team that has made consecutive World Series appearances, winning it all in 2008, with 5-1 start. They open up before their adoring fans as a decisive -275 money line favorite against everyone’s punching bag Washington. Cole Hamels will get the start against the free-swinging Nationals and the Phils are 51-26 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a contest.

Maybe this won’t be as easy as it appears for Philadelphia as Washington is still .500 this late in the season (good for them) and Hamels and the Phillies are 1-8 in days games dating back to the start of last year. With the total at Un.9.5, the defending National League champs are 15-3 UNDER at home vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs a game.

Progressive Field - 3:05E

Cleveland started just about as expected with 2-4 record on the road and seeks better results against a Texas team that has been a nemesis. The Indians lost eight of nine to the Rangers in 2009 and hope Fausto Carmona can provide another early season victory. Cleveland blew a five run lead in losing to Detroit yesterday 9-8 and is 10-24 after scoring eight runs or more. The Tribe is +110 underdog in their home opener.

Busch Stadium - 4:15E

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing real offensive firepower the first week of the new campaign, scoring 6.2 runs per game on the way to 4-2 record. They will finally get to show the home folks just how explosive they are against a Houston club the has not scratched in the win column in 2010 and is off to their worst start in 27 years at 0-6.

The middle of the line-up has been especially potent with Albert Pujols batting .375 with four home runs and 10 RBIs and Matt Holiday hitting .423 with three home runs and six RBIs. If Adam Wainwright continues to pitch like he has since last year, the -230 ML is well justified for Cards team that is 20-3 a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last two seasons.

PETCO Park – 6:35E Sports South

A home opener means different things to different players. The Padres Kevin Correia grew up in San Diego and used to attend games at Qualcomm Stadium as a kid. In 2008 he signed a minor league contract with San Diego after five years in the San Francisco organization and is on the big club, making the start today in the team’s initial home game of the season.

“It’s exciting to be able to pitch at home and have it be opening day,” Correia told the Padres’ official Web site. “It’s going to be something to look back on and remember.” The Friars are +145 home dogs to Atlanta; however Correia and Pads are 13-6 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss since he became starting pitcher.

Safeco Field – 6:40E

This year is supposed to be different for Seattle, a contender in the AL West, but a 2-5 start has them tied for last in the division and they take on Oakland in their first homestand of the season, the surprising leader out West. The offense was the deepest concern coming into 2010 and those beliefs have founded to be true, batting .230 as a team with .303 on-base percentage and totaling three runs a game. Having lost the last three of four games in series to the A’s, the Mariners are 12-3 in the Great Northwest with double revenge on their minds and are a -120 betting choice.

Rogers Centre – 7:20E RSN

Expectations are very low for the Blue Jays this upcoming season, but at least for the moment those thoughts have given way to optimism with Toronto of to flying 5-1 start. With a rejuvenated pitching staff that was ravaged by injures a year ago, Toronto has permitted 18 runs in first six outings. Brian Tallet will take a second turn this season for Blue Jays squad that is 20-10 in April since 2009 and face Chicago team that is 0-10 in Canada. The White Sox will start Jake Peavy and are -125 ML faves against Toronto team that have won last hour home openers.

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