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**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2010, 01:01 PM

Late Sunday Tips

The first full Sunday card in baseball is filled with plenty of solid pitchers taking the mound including Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Johan Santana, and Justin Verlander during the day. Later on, several key matchups take center-stage including a pair of contests out west. Also, we'll take a look at the ESPN Sunday Night showdown between the Cardinals and Brewers. Let's start in Anaheim as the A's try to stay hot with their series finale against the Angels.

Athletics at Angels - 3:35 PM EST

The Halos have started slow out of the gate after dropping four of their first six games, wrapping up things with the A's. Oakland's offense has picked up recently by tallying 25 runs in the last four games. Los Angeles ended a four-game skid on Saturday thanks to a Hideki Matsui walk-off single to beat Oakland, 4-3.

Joe Saunders looks to bounce back from a poor debut to the season, allowing 5 ER in 5 innings of a 5-3 loss to Minnesota. The Twins went deep on Saunders three times, equaling the amount of homers the southpaw gave up in his final six starts of last season. Saunders has had success against Oakland with four wins in five outings in 2009, allowing 2 ER or less in each victory.

The A's counter with Dallas Braden, who is coming off one of the best starts of his career. The lefty scattered four hits and one run in seven innings of work as Oakland edged Seattle, 2-1 in ten innings. Braden's luck hasn't been there against the Angels with Oakland going 1-4 in his five lifetime starts versus Los Angeles. All five of those games have finished 'under' the total with the A's crossing the plate just nine times.

The Angels are listed as a $1.30 favorite, while the total is set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'under'). The A's are 0-5 the last five on the road against left-handed starters, while the Angels have won five straight series finales against Oakland.

Braves at Giants - 4:05 PM EST

San Francisco has been impressive out of the gate as they send out reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum to the mound against Atlanta. The Braves have struggled against the Giants' ace, as Kenshin Kawakami tries to slow down San Francisco's offense.

Lincecum has beaten the Braves in five of six career starts, including a home shutout of Atlanta last May by a 4-0 count. The Braves got revenge on Lincecum with a 4-2 victory last July at Turner Field as the righty lasted only five innings. Each outing against the Braves has seen low-scoring affairs with five 'unders' getting cashed. Lincecum didn't suffer a Cy Young hangover with a 5-2 win at Houston in the season opener, allowing four hits in seven scoreless innings.

Kawakami hasn't made a start since last August as the Braves' righty finished last season at 7-12 with an ERA of 3.86. Atlanta won seven of Kawakami's 13 road starts, but fell as an away favorite at AT&T Park last May, 6-3. The Giants figured out the 34-year old twice last season as underdogs, including a 5-1 road victory in late July as $1.60 'dogs.

The Braves were a perfect 3-0 last season as road underdogs of $1.60 or higher, while the Giants are 6-1 the last seven starts Lincecum has made as a home favorite of at least $2.00. San Francisco opened up as a $2.00 'chalk,' with the total set at 7.

Cardinals at Brewers - 8:05 PM EST

Milwaukee tries to avoid the sweep at home as the Brewers face former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals. The Redbirds rallied off Trevor Hoffman in Friday's 5-4 victory, followed up by a 7-1 blowout on Saturday afternoon.

The Brewers send Randy Wolf to the hill to stop the bleeding. The veteran lefty picked up a victory in his Milwaukee debut with a 7-5 triumph over Colorado. Wolf gave up nine hits and 4 ER in 6.2 innings while striking out eight. The ex-Dodger lasted just under four innings in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cardinals last season, but L.A. managed a 5-3 win. The losing pitcher in that game was Carpenter, just the third loss in the last 11 road starts for the Cardinals when the righty takes the mound on the highway.

Carpenter looked outstanding in his season debut by scattering five hits and 2 ER in six innings of work in an 11-6 win at Cincinnati. The St. Louis ace has dominated Milwaukee, allowing 11 hits and 3 ER in three starts last season. The Cardinals won two of the three outings, with the lone loss coming in a 1-0 setback at Miller Park last May (8 IP, 2 hits, and 10 K's).

The Cardinals are listed as a $1.40 road favorites with the total set at 7 ½. St. Louis has struggled in the third game of a series dating back to last season, going 1-8, including Thursday's walk-off loss at Cincinnati. On the flip side, the Brewers are a solid 7-1 in the third game of a series the last eight opportunities.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2010, 01:03 PM

Diamond Trends - Sunday

Athletics at Angels – The Angels are 13-1 since September 02, 2006 when Joe Saunders starts after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $1295 The Angels are 12-1 since August 22, 2006 when Joe Saunders starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $1135

Phillies at Astros – The Astros are 14-2 since October 17, 2004 when Roy Oswalt starts at home when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $1055

Cardinals at Brewers – The Brewers are 14-3 since August 23, 2005 as a home dog when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $1420

Pirates at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 13-1-1 OU since May 13, 2004 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $1195 when playing the over. The Diamondbacks are 9-0 OU since August 23, 2005 as a home 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a favorite for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.

Braves at Giants – The Giants are 13-1 since August 17, 2008 as a favorite after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1125 The Giants are 14-1 since June 01, 2008 when Tim Lincecum starts as a home 140+ favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1230

Nationals at Mets – The Mets are 10-0 OU since September 26, 2007 as a 200+ favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over.

Blue Jays at Orioles – The Blue Jays are 9-0 OU since August 05, 2009 when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.

Yankees at Rays – The Yankees are 15-1 since September 19, 2007 after shutting out their opponent and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1375 The Rays are 11-1 OU since September 02, 2004 as a favorite after being shutout for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over. The Rays are 0-9 since August 26, 2008 when James Shields starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1170 when playing against.

Padres at Rockies – The Rockies are 11-1 since May 06, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts as a 140+ favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $945

Red Sox at Royals – The Royals are 1-13 since June 29, 2008 at home and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $1295 when playing against.

Indians at Tigers – The Indians are 0-13 since September 03, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1300 when playing against.

Twins at White Sox – The White Sox are 10-0 since May 16, 2004 when Mark Buehrle starts at home after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start at home for a net profit of $1030 The White Sox are 15-2 since April 18, 2008 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $1330 The Twins are 2-13 OU since May 06, 2008 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last four games for a net profit of $1090 when playing the under. The White Sox are 0-10 OU since June 21, 2004 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2010, 01:57 PM

Inside the Paint - Sunday

Similar to other professional sports, handicapping the last week of the regular season has its share of risks and rewards. Only four days remain before 14 teams pack it up for the summer and the other 16 will set their eyes toward the playoffs. With that being said, some of the games listed on the betting board have postseason implications, while others are meaningless. Despite the lack of uncertainty, gamblers still have the options to press or pass.
Let’s take a closer look at the complete card.

Orlando at Cleveland: It’s not fair to call this game meaningless, since it features the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference, but there isn’t much to gain in this spot. Technically, Orlando still has a chance to earn homecourt in the NBA Finals and it’s a good shot, considering Stan Van Gundy’s team is tied with the L.A. Lakers, the top seed in the Western Conference. LeBron James has sat out the last two games for the Cavs and the team lost by a combined four points to the Bulls (108-109) and Pacers (113-116). Will he suit up on Sunday? The answer is still up in the air and so is the opening number. The Magic will plan to suit up a full roster and carry their momentum into the postseason. Orlando is 20-5 SU and 15-10 ATS in the second-half of the season, plus it enters this game with a 4-1 run both SU and ATS in the last five. With LeBron on the court, the Cavs won and covered two of the three battles against Orlando this year. The ‘over’ went 2-1.

Portland at L.A. Lakers: The Lakers locked up the No. 1 seed in the West on Friday after beating Minnesota (97-88) and have been preparing for another championship run. Kobe Bryant (rest) sat out both contests and the Lakers went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. Los Angeles has put itself into a position to coast through the last month and that’s what the team has done. In the second-half of the season, the Lakers are 16-9 SU and 9-15-1 ATS. Portland can finish as high as fifth, but seeds six through eight look more probable, especially after the team lost at home to Dallas (83-77) on Friday. The Blazers and Lakers split the first two meetings of the regular season, both games played at the Rose Garden. Ironically, Los Angeles was without Kobe in its 99-82 win on Feb. 6 over Portland, but the Blazers didn’t have All-Star Brandon Roy in the lineup either. The Lakers have won five straight and 14 of the previous 16 battles at Staples Center versus the Blazers. Total players should make a note that the 'under' has gone 5-0 in the Lakers' last five games without Kobe.

Miami at New York: The Heat had their nine-game winning streak snapped Friday at home against Detroit (99-105). The defense was solid during the run, holding all nine clubs under the century mark. Miami will either finish the season as the fifth or sixth seed in the East, which means they’ll face Atlanta or Boston in the first round. New York’s chances of making the playoffs were eliminated a long time ago, but the club is playing for pride. The team is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four, but New York hasn’t had much success against Miami lately. The Knicks have dropped a pair of encounters both SU and ATS to the Heat this season and are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in the last four. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of the previous six in this series.

Chicago at Toronto: If there is one contest that has any meaning today, then it’s this battle from Air Canada Centre. The Bulls and Raptors are tied for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference with just three games left. Chris Bosh (face) is expected to miss another game for Toronto tonight, which is why Chicago has been installed as a two-point road favorite in this spot. The Raptors have won and covered five straight against the Bulls, including the two victories this season. However, the pair hasn’t squared off since Dec. 5. Even if Chicago wins in this spot, it could still lose the final seed due to the head-to-head tiebreaker. Chicago has gone 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS over its last 10, while Toronto is mired in a 3-7 SU and 6-4 ATS drought. It's hard to make a case for either club here but we do know that one of these two teams are going to have meet Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs, which means the NBA Draft Lottery looks more promising.

Minnesota at New Orleans: This game is a complete toss-up and could be a fun one to watch, since the atmosphere and tempo should be loose. New Orleans has won the first three regular season battles, but Minnesota covered all three. And all three went ‘under’ the number. The Timberwolves are 1-9 in their last 10, and the Hornets are 2-8. Hard to make a case for either team in this spot, but the ‘over’ could be worth a look. Before you run to the counter, make a note that the Wolves are on a 6-1 'under' roll.

Houston at Phoenix: The Suns were cooled off Friday in a loss at Oklahoma City (91-96), but it’s hard to overlook their impressive 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS run. Phoenix has won six straight at home (5-1 ATS) and the lone non-cover barely missed by a ½-point. The Rockets will be looking to avoid a four-game season sweep to the Suns on Sunday. Even though Houston already lost three games to Phoenix this year, the largest margin was eight points. The point-spread for this game opened at nine, and the Rockets are banged-up but they have gone 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five and the victories came against quality competition (Celtics, Grizzlies, Jazz, Bobcats) too. Houston has been known to push the pace on the road, evidenced by a 9-2 'over' run in its last 11 games away from home. Phoenix can earn the No. 2 seed in the West if its wins out and gets some help too.

Oklahoma City at Golden State: The Thunder has won all three meetings (2-1 ATS) against the Warriors this season, including a 104-95 road victory on Feb. 6. Golden State has won 17 of its 24 games at home, but it will be facing a back-to-back situation after losing to the Clippers (104-107) in Los Angeles last night. Don Nelson’s team is 5-13 SU on zero days rest but a respectable 11-7 ATS. Oklahoma City's seed and first-round playoff matchup are up in the air as of Sunday. The team can fall anywhere between the sixth and eighth spot.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2010, 02:19 PM

NBA Sunday Wagering Options

There are two games on ABC and one of them doesn’t mean much. That means we’ll pass on the Orlando and Cleveland contest and instead focus on Chicago and Toronto, who are battling for the right to have their season officially ended by the Cavaliers at a later date. The second half of the twin-bill on the American Broadcast Company network has a great deal of meaning to one team, with the other having at least a passing interest for a number of reasons.

Portland at L.A. Lakers 3:30E ABC

The Trailblazers (48-31, 43-34-2 ATS) would prefer to stay away from a rematch against Los Angeles next weekend, finishing either sixth or seventh in the Western Conference and a victory at the Staples Center would go a long way in making that happen.

Portland has been one of the best road teams all season with 23-17 record and 24-14-2 spread mark. The Blazers have chosen the approach of only doing what they can to improve position and let the rest take care of itself.
"But we're not going to worry about any of that stuff.” said Portland’s Juwan Howard. “We'll just go out there and get our wins and see what happens in the end." The Trailblazers are 13-6-1 ATS if opponent has winning home record.

The Lakers (56-23, 34-43-2 ATS) are a shell of the team that won the NBA title a season ago. Andre Bynum has been out for some time and his return is not imminent. Kobe Bryant’s legs are aching and that broken finger is throbbing, accounting for several off-shooting nights, as his team has lost five of their last eight, scoring less than 100 points six times in their last seven defeats.

When coach Phil Jackson was asked when was the last time his team played up to its potential, he uttered “Phoenix” whom the Lakers beat on the road 102-96 on Mar. 12, 14 games ago. Off their win at Minnesota Friday, L.A. is 1-7 ATS after covering the spread.

The Lakers are the home favorites and the home-standing team is on 6-1 ATS run. Los Angeles will come in 7-2 UNDER in last nine off a SU triumph. Portland suffered a disappointing home loss to Dallas two days ago and is 7-2 UNDER after a defeat, yet has covered the number in four of previous five after that circumstance.

Chicago at Toronto 6:00E TSN

The Bulls and Raptors are in a dead heat, making this a must game for each team with just two to play after today. Chicago (38-41, 39-38-2 ATS) is the healthier team at the moment and has won seven of last 11 outings to give themselves a chance.

"We've been through a lot this year. To be in this situation is great," center Joakim Noah said. "We've just got to be focused and understand what's at stake and hopefully play Cleveland in the playoffs." Their 11-point loss at New Jersey in last contest was certainly a blow and Chicago is 13-24 and 14-22-1 ATS following a spread misfortune.

Toronto (38-41, 36-41-2 ATS) is not even close to the same situation as Chicago. The Raptors are trying to manufacture on the run, losing their best player Chris Bosh to facial surgery and a number of Toronto players have various maladies, trying to get by and find a way into postseason.

"(It's) kind of tough right now but everyone's banged up a little bit," said Jose Calderon. "(Jarrett) Jack sprained his ankle a little bit, everybody has something. It's not like we have bodies to go there and practice... We have to be ready for the games and that's what it is." Toronto has fallen four straight times.

Toronto is 2-10-1 ATS in recent contests at the Air Canada Centre and is a 2.5-point underdog at Sportsbook.com with total of 202. The Raptors are 8-2 UNDER as on home underdog of 4.5 or less and are perfect 5-0 ATS against Chicago.

The Bulls will seek to take advantage of Toronto’s defensive shortcomings and are 20-12 ATS versus teams surrendering shooting percentage of 46 percent or higher. Chicago is 8-4 UNDER in last 12 outings.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2010, 02:24 PM

Sunday Night Baseball Central Showdown

The St. Louis Cardinals are again off to a strong start. Based on Chris Carpenter’s recent outings at Miller Park, that could continue through Sunday night. Carpenter will try to add to his 17-inning scoreless streak in Milwaukee and help the Cardinals to their seventh consecutive road win over the Brewers.

St. Louis opened last season by winning eight of its first 11 en route to a Central Division title. In 2008, the Cardinals got off to an 11-4 start before eventually finishing fourth. A 7-1 victory the Brewers on Saturday was the Cardinals’ fourth in five games to open 2010.

St. Louis, batting only .238 this season, had eight hits in the win but benefited from a pair of timely ones - Yadier Molina’s three-run homer in the second inning and Albert Pujols’ two-run single in the fifth, which moved the Cardinals to 20-8 in April the last couple of years.

The Cardinals took Friday’s series opener 5-4 thanks to two-out, two-run homers from Matt Holliday and pinch-hitter Nick Stavinoha, who drove in the go-ahead runs in the ninth inning. Those victories have paved the way for Carpenter (1-0, 3.00 ERA) to try to help the Cardinals complete consecutive three-game sweeps at Miller Park. The right-hander is 40-22 in road games in the first half of the season in his career. (Team's Record)

“It’s very important to win the series and tomorrow we have a chance to sweep them,” Molina said. “We have Carp on the mound and everybody knows Carp, he’s a great pitcher.”

Carpenter opened this season by allowing two runs and five hits over six innings in Monday’s 11-6 win in Cincinnati. In his previous start in Milwaukee on Sept. 7, he recorded his only shutout of last season—a one-hitter with 10 strikeouts in a 3-0 victory. The righty was 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA last year, and finished second in the NL Cy Young Award voting to San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum.

Carpenter is 25-5 with the Cards on five days rest and also beat the Brewers in St. Louis on Sept. 2, but did not get a decision in Milwaukee on May 25 despite allowing two hits over eight innings. Instead, a two-out single from Bill Hall in the 10th gave the Brewers a 1-0 victory.

Since then, Milwaukee (2-3) has dropped nine of 10 at home to the Cardinals. The Brewers have been outscored 12-5 in the first two games of this series and have batted .177 and they are 0-8 revenging a home loss vs. opponent of six runs or more.

Milwaukee, also hitting .238 overall, will likely need to give left-hander Randy Wolf (1-0, 5.40) a little more support. The Brewers had four hits Saturday including two from Corey Hart in his second start this season.
“That was very encouraging,” manager Ken Macha told the team’s Web site. “I was looking at how the thing go the next three or four games, and he’s got a chance he’s going to be in there (Sunday).”

Wolf, 0-2 with a 3.57 ERA in his last three starts versus the Cardinals, allowed two runs over six innings in his only outing against them last season for the Los Angeles Dodgers but was outdueled by Carpenter in a 6-1 defeat on July 27, however he’s 24-6 pitching at home in a night game the last three seasons. (Team’s record)

Wolf, who hasn’t earned a win over St. Louis since May 16, 2007, got five runs of support in his Brewers debut - Tuesday’s 7-5 win over visiting Colorado. He allowed four runs and nine hits over 6 2-3 innings, but also struck out eight and walked none.

Sportsbook.com has St. Louis as -146 money line favorites with total Ov7.5 and they are 29-7 vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season since last year and they are 37-20 UNDER after three or more consecutive road games. Milwaukee is counting on Wolf to come up with big effort to avoid the sweep and he is 13-1 at home vs. a NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last three seasons. (Team's Record)

This is the ESPN Sunday Night contest and it will start at 8:05 Eastern, with the Brewers 11-1 OVER after four straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base.

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