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**StarDust Bum** · 04-08-2010, 02:10 AM

Thursday Afternoon Tips

The Thursday afternoon baseball card is filled with six games for bettors to wager on, including the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Phillies all concluding their first road series. We'll take a look at those contests as well the handful of American League matchups under the sun.

Cardinals at Reds - 12:35 PM EST

Brad Penny makes his St. Louis debut at the Great American Ballpark as the Cards and Reds close out their series. Bronson Arroyo is coming off consecutive 15-win seasons, as the Cincinnati righty takes the mound for the Reds.

Arroyo was a solid 'under' pitcher last season, hitting the 'under' in 20 of 30 starts in 2009. Eight of his final nine home starts finished 'under' the total, including a 6-1 victory over the Cardinals on September 30 in which Arroyo tossed 8.1 innings of four-hit ball. Arroyo's day numbers have never been strong, as the Reds were 1-5 at home last season in matinees.

Penny split time between the Red Sox and Giants in 2009, but finished 4-1 in six starts with San Francisco. The veteran righty still has plenty of gas left in tank evidenced by five quality starts with the Giants, allowing two earned runs or less in those outings. However, in 13 road starts last season, Penny's teams went 4-9. Penny did beat three playoff teams on the highway with victories over the Angels, Twins, and Phillies.

The Cardinals and Reds split 16 meetings last season, but St. Louis captured the Opening Day contest with an 11-6 triumph. Albert Pujols provided the offensive jolt with a pair of homers, as the Cards knocked out four home runs.

Dodgers at Pirates - 12:35 PM EST

Los Angeles didn't get the season started the way it wanted to after an 11-5 loss to Pittsburgh on Monday. The Dodgers send righty Chad Billingsley to the hill, trying to improve on a 12-11 mark from last season, a four win drop-off from 2008. Paul Maholm finished 2009 with single-digit victories for the second straight season, as the Pirates' lefty went 4-3 in 16 home starts.

Billingsley didn't wrap up 2009 on a strong note as the Dodgers dropped six of his final seven starts. In that span, Billingsley fell short in four of five road outings, while not lasting past the sixth inning one time. Not finding the strike zone consistently has been an issue for Billingsley, who finished fifth in the National League by issuing 86 walks last season. The good news for Billingsley is the Pirates ranked 22nd in baseball in walks, so Pittsburgh will chase plenty of pitches.

Maholm has been the model of inconsistency over his career, compiling a 17-18 mark the last two seasons. The Pittsburgh southpaw has struggled against the Dodgers in his career, beating L.A. once in six outings. Maholm put together a quality start when he faced the Dodgers last September (7 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER), but the Pirates fell 8-4.

Since September 18, 2009, the Dodgers are 2-9 against left-handed starting pitchers, including Monday's loss to Zach Duke and the Pirates (0-6 on the road in this span). The Pirates finished last season at 9-15 when playing the third game of a series at home, but were just 5-14 against right-handed starters.

Phillies at Nationals - 4:35 PM EST

Philadelphia goes for the series victory over Washington, while going 16-3 the last 19 meetings in this series. The Phillies send Kyle Kendrick to the mound while young righty Craig Stammen takes the bump for Washington.

Kendrick made only two starts last season, but is getting an opportunity with Joe Blanton currently on the disabled list. The 25-year old Kendrick finished the spring strong with a 1.46 ERA in seven appearances (five starts). Facing Washington is usually a winning proposition for most pitchers and that's the case with Kendrick, who is 4-2 in six career starts. All three starts Kendrick made against the Nationals in 2008 each finished 'over' the total, but the righty lasted just four innings in two of three starts.

Washington was a profitable 5-4 last season when Stammen started at Nationals Park, including wins in the underdog role against the Giants, Marlins, and Brewers. Stammen's biggest victory came at Yankee Stadium as a $2.30 underdog, blanking the Champs, 3-0. Stammen is not afraid of facing big-time lineups, but the righty needs to pitch into the seventh inning to avoid the Washington bullpen giving up any potential lead.

The Nationals are 1-6 their last seven as a home underdog dating back to September, while being listed as a $1.50 'dog or higher five times in this span. Seven of the last eight meetings in D.C. have finished 'over' the total with seven games seeing at least double-digit runs scored.

What else to watch for:

-- C.J. Wilson makes first start for the Rangers since 2005 after predominantly being in the Texas bullpen. The southpaw opposes Toronto's Ricky Romero, who is coming off a successful 13-9 campaign, while owning an ERA of 4.30. Romero concluded last season with losses in five of his final six road starts, but began the season at 7-3. The Rangers are 5-1 the last six home meetings with the Blue Jays, while Texas has been listed as a $1.40 favorite or more each time.

-- Dontrelle Willis looks to resurrect his once-promising career when the Tigers and Royals conclude their series in Kansas City. The former Cy Young runner-up in the National League has won only one game in two seasons with Detroit since being dealt from Florida in 2008. Willis has never faced the Royals in his career, as the lefty will be opposed by Brian Bannister. Kansas City finished 5-7 in Bannister's 12 home starts last season, but the righty has beaten Detroit four of the last five outings.

**BOBBYW63** · 04-08-2010, 05:21 AM

Thanx for the pix bum and gltus.....

Did you make a play in the masters?

**StarDust Bum** · 04-08-2010, 06:31 PM

Yes i did.......

Here they are:

Rory Sabbatini

Zach Johnson

Steve Stricker

YE Yang

Camilo Villegas

Lee Westwood

Jim Furyk

Tiger Woods

Ernie Els

Fred Couples

**StarDust Bum** · 04-08-2010, 06:36 PM

Evening MLB Picks:

Baltimore - 7:10 PM ET Baltimore +151 500
Tampa Bay - Over 9.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +161 500 ( POD )
Atlanta - Under 8 500

Florida - 7:10 PM ET Florida +104 500 ( POD )
NY Mets - Over 9 500 ( POD )

Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Cleveland +123 500 ( POD )
Chi. White Sox - Over 8.5 500

Minnesota - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -119 500
LA Angels - Under 9.5 500

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/07/10 10-15-1 40.00% -3350 Detail
04/06/10 15-3-0 83.33% +5370 Detail
04/04/10 10-6-0 62.50% +1200 Detail
04/03/10 10-6-0 62.50% +1580 Detail
04/02/10 7-5-1 58.33% +900 Detail
04/01/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
Totals 55-36-2 60.44% +6650

Thursday, April 8Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -2.5 500
Chicago - Under 196 500

L.A. Clippers - 10:00 PM ET Sacramento -7 500
Sacramento - Under 200.5 500

L.A. Lakers - 10:30 PM ET Denver -2 500
Denver - Under 204.5 500

I love all 6 of these picks and will be a 6 team parlay for fun....

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Thursday, April 8Game Score Status Pick Amount

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo +156 500 ( NHL POD )
Boston - Over 5.5 500

Montreal - 7:30 PM ET Montreal -108 500
Carolina - Over 5.5 500

NY Islanders - 7:30 PM ET Pittsburgh -210 500
Pittsburgh - Under 5.5 500

Ottawa - 7:30 PM ET Ottawa -135 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5.5 500

New Jersey - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey -175 500
Florida - Under 5 500

Anaheim - 8:30 PM ET Anaheim +161 500 ( NHL DOG )
Dallas - Over 5.5 500

Minnesota - 9:30 PM ET Calgary -175 500
Calgary - Under 5 500

Phoenix - 10:30 PM ET Phoenix +152 500
Los Angeles - Under 5 500 ( NHL TOTAL )

Vancouver - 10:30 PM ET San Jose -175 500
San Jose - Over 5.5 500

Good Luck !

**Chado1** · 04-08-2010, 06:38 PM

GL tonight BUM!!!

**shoeman530** · 04-08-2010, 06:56 PM

Good luck sdb

**StarDust Bum** · 04-08-2010, 07:26 PM

Inside the Paint - Thursday

We’ve reached the final TNT double-header of the regular season, which means the playoffs are right around the corner. Three of the four squads on tap this week have already booked tickets to the second dance and one is waiting in line. The first contest tips at 8:05 p.m. EDT. Let’s break ‘em down!
Cleveland (61-17 SU, 38-40 ATS) at Chicago (37-40 SU, 39-36 ATS)

Chicago has had every opportunity to make the playoffs this season but it appears that Vinny Del Negro’s team can’t press the right buttons at the right time. The Bulls trail Toronto by a 1/2 game for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but the Raptors own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bulls. A victory tonight would force a tie for the No. 8 seed, with four games left, including a showdown between the two on Sunday from Air Canada Centre.

On Tuesday, the Bulls had a chance to pull even with the Raptors but they lost to Milwaukee (74-79) at home. The offense put forth the worst effort of the season and nobody could stop John Salmons (26 points), who was traded from the Bulls to the Bucks in February. What do they say about Karma?

Including tonight’s contest against Cleveland, the Bulls only play two of their final five games at home. Fortunately for Chicago, the Cavaliers might rest some starters for tonight after the team clinched the overall top seed in the playoffs by beating Toronto (113-101) at home on Tuesday.

This will be the front end of a back-to-back set for Cleveland, with a home battle versus Indiana slated for Firday. The team wraps up the season against two playoff contenders, Orlando and Atlanta. Does Mike Brown rest his guys for the next two then step up against the Magic and Hawks? When asked what his plans were after locking up the No. 1 seed, Brown said “I look at these games as a high-level practice. If we don’t win, it doesn’t really matter.”

Chicago beat Cleveland 86-85 at Quicken Loans Arena on Nov. 5 as an 11 ½-point underdog. Since that win, the Cavaliers have captured the next two meetings, including a 92-85 decision in the Windy City on Mar. 29. The Bulls did save face by covering as 10-point home ‘dogs.

The ‘under’ has cashed in all three battles between the two teams this season and is on a 4-0 run going back to last year. Chicago has also watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 in it last 10, but the Cavs are on a 3-1 ‘over’ run.

After this game, the Bulls will face New Jersey on zero days rest tomorrow before heading to the aformentioned showdown versus Toronto on Sunday for what looks like a play-in game. Chicago finishes up the final week with another back-to-back set, home versus Boston and then at Charlotte.

L.A. Lakers (55-22 SU, 33-41 ATS) at Denver (51-27 SU, 33-40 ATS)

This will be the fourth and final encounter between the Lakers and Nuggets takes place from Pepsi Center on Thursday at 10:35 p.m. EDT. This game means a lot more for Denver, who can finish as high as the second seed in the Western Conference or even drop all the way down to the eighth spot.

Ever since head coach George Karl announced that he would leave the team to fight throat and neck cancer, the Nuggets haven’t been the same. Denver has gone 6-6 SU and a miserable 2-9-1 ATS over the last 12. Seven of the 12 were on the road, but even the home games saw lackluster performances, especially on offense. The attack was held under 100 in four of their five contests in Denver.

Despite the sluggish stretch, Denver has still been a force at home (32-6 SU, 18-19 ATS) this season. The Nuggets have averaged 111 points per game at home, which has helped the ‘over’ go 21-17. Los Angeles has gone 22-16 SU and 17-21 ATS on the road this season, and its 2-3 in its last five away from home.

Fatigue could play a part tonight, since Denver will be facing a back-to-back situation on Thursday after rally past Oklahoma City (98-94) last night and the Lakers have been off since Sunday. The Nuggets have gone 9-11 SU and 6-12-2 ATS on zero days rest this season and that includes a 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS record in the last three back-to-back spots.

Los Angeles still hasn’t clinched the top spot in the West but can do so with one win over its final five games or losses by the teams chasing the Purple and Gold. The Lakers are coming off an embarrassing home setback to San Antonio (81-100) on Sunday and they’re 2-4 both SU and ATS in their last six. If you go back to the All-Star break, L.A. has gone 14-9 SU and 7-15-1 ATS in the second-half of the season.

Denver has captured two of the first three meetings against the Lakers this year, including a 105-79 win on Nov. 13 as a four-point home favorite. The combined 184 points never threatened the closing total of 212. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the three contests this season.

Los Angeles center Andrew Bynum (Achilles) should be ready by the playoffs but he could see action in this spot. The Lakers have gone 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS during his absence and the ‘under’ has posted a 5-3 mark over this span.

After tonight, the Lakers travel to Minnesota for their final game of the season on zero days rest. Denver stays at home for two more, with San Antonio visiting on Saturday and Memphis on Monday. Then, the Nuggets close their season at Phoenix next Wednesday.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-08-2010, 07:27 PM

Trend Report - Thursday

Cavaliers at Bulls – The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since November 15, 2008 when they had at least ten more assists in their previous game than in the game before. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since December 06, 2008 on the road after a double digit home win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since January 08, 2010 after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent.

Clippers at Kings – The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since February 22, 2009 on the road when facing a team that covered by double digits against them in their previous same-season meeting at home. The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since May 02, 2006 after playing at home against the Spurs. The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since April 07, 2009 after a home loss in which their DPA was negative. The Kings are 0-6 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since March 16, 2010 after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

Lakers at Nuggets – The Lakers are 0-8 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since May 05, 2003 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted. The Lakers are 7-0-1 ATS (5.1 ppg) since December 28, 2008 with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Nuggets are 0-12 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since March 24, 2000 as a favorite with no rest after a game in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS (16.4 ppg) since December 13, 2008 when seeking revenge for a loss as a road dog in which they led by double digits.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-08-2010, 07:29 PM

Under the Lights

Gamblers have 11 MLB games on today’s slate. Kevin Rogers has the afternoon tilts broken down, so we’ll take a look at the five contests to be played under the lights. Let’s start with the Cubs-Braves and Twins-Angels before touching on the three other games in Bonus Nuggets.

**Cubs at Braves**

--As of this morning, most betting shops had the Braves listed as minus-200 favorites with a total of eight ‘under’ (minus-115). Bettors can bypass the expensive straight price and take Bobby Cox’s club on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).

--Atlanta (2-0, +200) has a chance to break out the brooms and sweep its first series of the season tonight. Jason Heyward has been the catalyst in a pair of victories over the Cubs, blasting a jaw-dropping three-run homer in Monday’s 16-5 season-opening win. The rookie right fielder hit a two-out RBI double in last night’s 3-2 triumph.

Cox will turn to second-year RHP Tommy Hanson for his 2010 debut in the series finale. As a rookie, Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 21 starting assignments. This is his first career appearance against the Cubs.

--Chicago’s Randy Wells will take the slab tonight at Turner Field. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in a pair of career starts against Atlanta. In those outings, Wells has fanned eight batters without issuing any free passes.

--Like Hanson, Wells was outstanding as a rookie in 2009. He compiled a 12-10 record and 3.05 ERA in 27 starts.

--Atlanta CF Nate McLouth is 2-for-3 against Wells with one homer, while Chipper Jones is 2-for-6 against the righty.

--In last night’s 3-2 Atlanta win, Billy Wagner collected his first save as a member of the Braves. The veteran southpaw closer struck out the side.

**Twins at Angels**

--As of this morning, most books had Los Angeles (1-2, -172) listed as a minus-125 favorite with a total of 9 ½ flat (minus-110 either way). Bettors can take the Angels on the run line for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).

--Minnesota (2-1, +156) won a 4-2 decision over the Halos as a plus-125 underdog last night. Justin Morneau and J.J. Hardy both popped their second homers of the year, while Carl Pavano worked seven sharp innings. Pavano gave up just one earned run and fanned six without walking a batter.

--The Angels won the series opener by a 6-3 count thanks to the heroics of newly acquired outfielder Hideki Matsui, who drove in the go-ahead run in the fifth inning and added an eighth-inning homer for insurance.

--Ron Gardenhire’s squad bounced back from the opening-day loss by winning a 5-3 decision Tuesday night in Tinseltown. Nick Blackburn worked 6 2/3 solid innings en route to his first victory of the year, while Jon Rauch threw a perfect ninth to record the save. Rauch struck out a pair of batters in the final inning. Joe Mauer, Morneau and Hardy each belted homers to provide the Minnesota offense.

--Minnesota RHP Kevin Slowey will get the starting nod in this spot. Slowey posted a 10-3 record and 4.86 ERA in 2009. The righty is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA in four career starts against the Halos.

--Joel Pineiro will toe the rubber for L.A. The right-hander has had tough luck against the Twins, posting a 2-6 record despite a decent 4.32 ERA. Pineiro went 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA while playing for St. Louis last season.

--The first pitch is scheduled for 10:05 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Tampa Bay will play host to Baltimore at 7:05 p.m. Eastern tonight at The Trop in St. Pete. Most spots had the Rays favored in the minus 170-180 range as of this morning. Joe Maddon’s club has taken the first two games from the O’s, including last night’s 4-3 win as a minus-210 ‘chalk.’ The ‘under’ has cashed in the first two meetings between these AL East rivals.

--The White Sox and Indians will collide tonight for the rubber game of their series in the Windy City. Most books are listing Chicago as a minus-135 favorite.

--The Mets and Marlins have split the first two games of their season-opening three-game set. Florida won a 7-6 decision in 10 innings last night. Ronny Paulino hit a pinch-hit single to plate Wes Helms with the winning run in the 10th. The Fish wasted a stellar effort from Ricky Nolasco when the bullpen let a 6-1 lead get away in the seventh and eighth innings.

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