Sunday Trends and Indexes 4/4 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

[Udog]

NBA


Sunday, April 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers [ABC | 3:30 PM ET]

Spurs: San Antonio can punch their ticket into the playoffs for the 13th consecutive season with a SU win today. Beating the Lakers at the Staples Center won't come easy however, as the Spurs have lost their past 4 games SU in Los Angeles. The Spurs have gone 14-5 SU over their past 19 games, all the more impressive considering they have been successful playing without injured star PG Tony Parker. G George Hill and G Manu Ginobli have really stepped up for San Antonio. Ginobli has averaged more than 25 PPG in his last 14 starts while shooting better than 51% from the field. The Spurs are currently in 7th place in the Western Conference with a record of 46-29 SU and 40-34-1 ATS this year. The Spurs have a half game lead over Portland right now for the 8th and final playoff spot. If the Spurs lose today, it's very possible this match up today could be a preview of a 1st Round Playoff clash. The Spurs are 18-18 SU and 16-20 ATS in road contests this season. The Spurs are also an even 8-8 ATS this season as the listed underdog. All 5 starters average more than 12 PPG for the Spurs this season, led by F Tim Duncan. Duncan is having one of the best statistical seasons of his career, averaging 18 PPG and 10.2 RPG this year.

Spurs are 9-1 ATS last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-2 last 11 vs. a team with a winning SU record.

Key Injuries - G Tony Parker (hand) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 95 (Side of the Day)

Lakers (-6, O/U 194.5): Los Angeles is happy to be back home, after enduring a 5 game road trip that saw them go 2-3 SU. The Lakers crushed the Jazz by 14 PTS in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. Despite whispers of turmoil amongst the Lakers players, they still have a chance of winning 60 games for the 2nd consecutive season. Los Angeles is currently 55-21 SU and 32-41-3 ATS overall this season. The Lakers have all but clinched the best record in the Western Conference, as they have a 5 game lead with only 6 games to play. The Lakers are 33-5 SU and 16-21-1 ATS in home games this season. Los Angeles is 28-34 ATS as the listed favorite this season, including 1-1 ATS as the listed favorite between 3.5 and 6 PTS. The Lakers have struggled in the 2nd half of the regular season, going 10-18 ATS during this time span. The Lakers have won their past 7 games SU at home entering tonight. Kobe Bryant leads the Lakers in scoring, averaging 27.2 PPG this season which is the 4th best scoring average in the NBA.

Lakers are 0-7 ATS last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - C Andrew Bynum (achilles) is out.
F Luke Walton (back) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 96



Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic [6:00 PM ET]

Grizzlies: Memphis is still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, but it would take a major miracle for this dream to come true. Despite everything, Memphis has had a very solid season in building for the future with their young nucleus. The Grizzlies are 39-36 SU and 38-35-2 ATS overall this season. The Grizzlies are still playing hard, as they want to finish with a winning record for the first time in 5 years. Memphis will have to play that much harder now that C Marc Gasol and G Ronnie Brewer sustained season ending injuries. Memphis is 16-20 SU and 20-16 ATS in road contests this season. The Grizzlies are 21-18 ATS as the listed underdog this season. However, Memphis is only 2-6 ATS this season as a road underdog between 9.5 to 12 PTS this season. The Grizzlies have fared well against the Eastern Conference, going 16-11 ATS this season. The Grizzlies have also played well after a double digit SU victory this season, going 11-4 ATS in this specific scenario. 3 Grizzlies currently average 18 PPG or more this season. F Zach Randolph is having a huge year, averaging team highs of 20.8 PPG and 11.7 RPG. F Rudy Gay and G O.J. Mayo combine for nearly 38 PPG this season, and are a huge reason why much will be expected from Memphis next season with their young nucleus.

Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - C Marc Gasol (shoulder) is out.
G Ronnie Brewer (hamstring) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 102

Magic (-10.5, O/U 204): Orlando has all but locked up the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. The Magic lead the Hawks by 4.5 games with 6 games to play in the regular season. Orlando is currently 53-23 SU and 40-34-2 ATS overall this season. The Magic have won 6 of their past 8 games SU, but are coming off a SU loss to San Antonio. The Magic allowed the Spurs to score 112 PTS, the first time they had given up more than 97 PTS in their previous 5 games. The Magic are 30-7 SU and 19-16-2 ATS in home games this season. The Magic are 34-29 ATS as the listed favorite this season, including 8-4 ATS as a home favorite between 10-12 PTS this season. The Magic are 2-1 ATS this season in games following a double digit loss this season. Orlando is 16-11 ATS in the 2nd half of the season entering tonight. Orlando is likely to have revenge on their minds tonight, as they lost earlier this year in Memphis 94-99 SU. Orlando averages 101.8 PPG this season, the 10th best in the NBA. C Dwight Howard is having an MVP type season, leading the Magic with 18.5 PPG and 13.3 RPG this season.

Magic is 19-7-1 ATS last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 112 (OVER - Total of the Day)


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel


Butler vs. Duke
The Blue Devils look to take advantage of a Butler team that is coming off a 52-50 win over Michigan State and is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win. Duke is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, APRIL 5

Game 601-602: Butler vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 69.873; Duke 80.284
Dunkel Line: Duke by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6 1/2)

[Udog]

NCAAB
Long Sheet


Monday, April 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUTLER (33 - 4) vs. DUKE (34 - 5) - 4/5/2010, 9:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
DUKE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
DUKE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
DUKE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
DUKE is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
DUKE is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DUKE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
BUTLER is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 120-86 ATS (+25.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAB
Short Sheet


Monday, 4/5/2010

NCAA Tournament Championship
BUTLER vs. DUKE, 9:15 PM ET CBS
BUTLER: 12-5 ATS after 1+ consecutive unders
DUKE: 6-0 Over after covering the spread in 4+ consecutive games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NCAAB


Monday, April 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9:21 PM
BUTLER vs. DUKE
Butler is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Sunday six-pack

-- Oft-injured pitcher Scott Kazmir starts season on DL for the Angels with a hamstring injury.

-- Power-starved A's surprisingly designated Jack Cust, which means the starting DH in Oakland will be brittle, highly-paid Eric Chavez.

-- Oakland also lost CF/leadoff hitter Coco Crisp for few weeks with a broken pinkie. Teams with no margin for error can't afford injuries.

-- They drew 35,310 fans to Dodger Stadium for Angels-Dodgers in the last spring training game in LA Saturday. Pretty nice crowd.

-- Colorado put closer Huston Street (shoulder) on DL; LSU alum Greg Smith won a spot in the Rockies' rotation.

-- ESPN hired Curt Schilling as a baseball analyst, which means they can fire three other guys, since Schilling talks so damn much.


************************************************** ***********


Sunday's List of 13: Random thoughts on Easter Sunday......

13) Sad to say, but Da'Sean Butler's leg injury is going to give scumweasel agents ammunition to convince kids to leave college early for the NBA, so they can get paid before they get hurt, much like Kenyon Martin's broken leg did eight years ago. Just hope its a sprained knee, not a torn ACL.

12) Shooting isn't a God-given skill; you can get better via practice, but it is still the one skill that seems most lacking in modern basketball. Duke wins because they pass well, they make open shots and when they get in tough spots, they tend to get a call or two (Baylor game, not the West Va game). They are tough and they play with confidence.

11) Cincinnati Reds have a pitcher named Mike Leake who made roster without ever playing minor league ball; kid pitched for Arizona State. He is first big leaguer to skip minors since Darren Dreifort in 1994.

10) Twins' announcers were gushing about the new ballpark Friday night, but it was 65 degrees in Twin Cities, weird for April 2. Lets see how the home folks like it when its 34 degrees on a late April night? Or if Twins ever make World Series again and play night games in November? Yikes.

9) Interesting article on espn.com today about which two golfers will be paired with Eldrick Woods Thursday/Friday. Pairings are expected to be released Tuesday. Masters people don't use the computer as much as most tournaments to make the pairings for first two rounds- they might be asking around for volunteers. Its going to be quite a circus.

8) 75-year old Dick Enberg is working Padres' games this year; so far in his career, Enberg has called 10 Super Bowls, 14 Final Fours, 17 majors in golf, nine Rose Bowls, six Orange Bowls, as well as Nolan Ryan's first two no-hitters, a ton of tennis and eight UCLA national hoop titles. What a career for a guy who has tremendous enthusiasm, and he's still going.

7) Richmond coach Chris Mooney turned down Boston College to sign a 7-year deal with the Spiders, who figure to be strong again next season.

6) If you ran a bigtime hoop program, why would you even think about hiring a coach who runs the Princeton offense? You're going to have team that plays slow-paced games, less fun to watch than the normal college game. Oregon State has improved under Craig Robinson, but they ranked 343-324 (out of 347 teams) in pace of game under Robinson. Wouldn't it be wiser to hire a coach who plays a faster paced game? Has to be easier to recruit kids, and its more fun for fans to come watch?

5) Either way, no matter who you hire, they have to win, no matter how fast or slow they play, but seems to me its easier to recruit good players if you play a style thats fun to play. Also gets you on TV more.

4) Does Butler's success shorten the leash for other mid-major coaches? Will nitwit administrators look at Butler, then look at their school and ask, "Why not us?" It happened a little when Northwestern got to Rose Bowl under Gary Barnett in mid-90's. Everyone else said, "Well, if they can win, why can't we?" Some coaches got fired quickly because of it, so typical of educated jackasses who have no idea what sports are all about.

3) Shouldn't there be an NBA Hall of Fame, a college basketball Hall of Fame and a high school Hall of Fame? Its confusing when Bob Hurley Jr gets into the Basketball Hall of Fame before Jerry Tarkanian and Eddie Sutton, and only a year after Michael Jordan. What is the criteria?

2) Milwaukee's Andrew Bogut broke his hand, dislocated his elbow and is probably out for the year after a horrible fall during the Bucks' win over Phoenix Saturday night. Very bad news for vastly improved Milwaukee.

1) Sigh of relief late Saturday night, as Miami Heat's team plane made an emergency landing in Chicago after a mechanic lapsed into a diabetic coma on the team's flight from Minneapolis to Miami. Dwyane Wade tweeted that it was the pilot who was ill, but thankfully that wasn't true.

[Udog]

NCAAB


Monday, April 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know: Butler vs. Duke
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Butler Bulldogs vs. Duke Blue Devils (-6.5, 129.5)

“The Butler Way”

Barry Collier adopted “the Butler Way” when he coached the Bulldogs from 1989-2000. Ten years later, “the Butler Way” has this group of Bulldogs in the National Championship.

But just what is it?

“It’s just the way we carry ourselves on and off the court,” explained senior forward Willie Veasley. “It’s something when you come here, you live it. It’s a core value, something you take pride in, something you hold yourself accountable for.”

Whatever it is, it has led to an amazing 25 straight victories. Butler (33-4, 17-20 ATS) has not lost since a 67-57 setback at UAB on December 22.

The way these Bulldogs have been winning is with defense and toughness, not jaw-dropping talent or high-powered offense. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo knows that all too well after his team’s 52-50 loss on Saturday night.

“It was one of the more physical game we've been involved in, and playing in the Big Ten, that's saying something,” Izzo remarked. “They play as hard as anybody we've played. They are physical.”

Said Butler forward Gordon Hayward, who came up with a critical blocked shot to preserve a 1-point advantage in the final seconds: “I thought it was fitting that we had to get a defensive stop on that last possession of the game because that's how we've won all season. We had to win the Butler way.”

Three-headed monster

Duke’s “S” trio of Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith has been leading the way for the Blue Devils all season, and more of the same is continuing in this NCAA Tournament.

Singler, Scheyer and Smith combined for 57 of 78 points against Purdue, 54 of 78 against Baylor and 63 of 78 in Saturday night’s blowout win over West Virginia. They combined to shoot a devastating 12-for-23 from beyond the arc at the expense of the Mountaineers.

“We were not going to beat West Virginia without a great performance,” coach Mike Krzyzewski said in a post-game interview with CBS.

While that is almost certainly untrue given the 21-point margin of victory, he certainly got a great performance from his players, including from the star trio’s supporting cast.

Offensive rebounding has been a key to Duke’s success all year long, and Brian Zoubek pulled down five of his 10 boards at the offensive end. Both of Lance Thomas’ rebounds were of the offensive variety and no team does a better job of getting second-chance looks from 3-point range than Duke.

David vs. Goliath…literally

This is not just a mismatch in terms of a “mid-major” team from the Horizon League going up against the ACC Champions.

Duke sports a front line of Zoubek (7-foot-1), Thomas (6-foot-8, 240 pounds) and the 6-foot-10 Plumlee twins (Miles and Mason). Butler’s corps group of players features nobody taller than 6-foot-9 (Hayward).

The Blue Devils have won the rebounding battle in all five of their NCAA Tournament contests and they have reached double-figures on the offensive glass in all five outings. Against Baylor, Duke hauled in a shocking 22 offensive boards. Against Baylor, Duke out-rebounded the Boilermakers 45-22.

Needless to say, the pressure will be on Hayward and 6-foot-8 forwards Avery Jukes and Matt Howard to keep Zoubek and Thomas off the glass.

Something’s gotta give

Butler’s stingy defense against Duke’s clicking offense will be the story of Monday night’s National Championship.

The Bulldogs have not allowed any of their five NCAA Tournament opponents to score 60 points in a game. In fact, Butler has limited 12 of its last 13 opponents to fewer than 60 points.

So good was their defense on Saturday against Michigan State that the Bulldogs still won despite shooting an unimaginably bad 30.6 percent at the other end of the floor.

Duke, on the other hand, has failed to reach the 60-point mark just once this entire season - once in 38 games. The Blue Devils poured in 78 in each of their past two contests, which resulted in wins over Baylor in the South Region final and over West Virginia. Duke drained 13-of-25 3-pointers against the Mountaineers.

Common opponents

The Bulldogs and Blue Devils have faced two common opponents this season, Clemson and Georgetown. Butler fell to the Tigers 70-69 on a neutral court while Duke hammered Clemson on two different occasions (74-53 at home and 60-47 on the road).

Both the Bulldogs and the Blue Devils lost to Georgetown. Butler went down 72-65 in Madison Square Garden and Duke got manhandled by the Hoyas 89-77 at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.

Trending topics

The Bulldogs are 8-3 in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games and 5-1 ATS in their last six overall

The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS during this NCAA Tournament.

Both Butler (15-20 O/U) and Duke (16-22 O/U) have been solid under plays this season. The under is 9-1 in Butler’s last 10 overall and 2-4 in Duke’s last six overall.

Butler's defense has made a mockery of over/under lines during the tourney. Butler's games have finished below the closing total by an average of 15 points in the team's last four games.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------