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**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2010, 09:58 AM

2010 American League Central Preview

In the AL Central, believe the axis of power revolves around Jake Peavy pitching all year in the Windy City and Joe Nathan being a bystander in Minnesota’s new park, giving the nod to Chicago. After the Twins, Detroit lost two valuable offensive threats and is depending on middle-aged (in baseball terms) players coming off of rotten years to get them back toward the top. Kansas City and Cleveland pick up the rear in this Midwestern division, with the Tribe in fourth place having more Indians that can hit. Here is a look at what to expect from each team in the A.L. Central in 2010, including a take on their Regular Season Win Props and a predicted finish.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: OZZIE GUILLEN
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 79-83 (48.8%), -8.0 Units (#18 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 62-96-4
******* Power Rating: 106.5 (#12 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 43-38 (-5.2 Units)
Road Games: 36-45 (-2.8 Units)
vs. Division: 34-38 (-7.3 Units)
Interleague Games: 12-6 (7.2 Units)
Day Games: 27-35 (-9.5 Units)
Night Games: 52-48 (1.6 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 25-24 (-0.4 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 54-59 (-7.6 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.47 (#19 of 30) - Allowed: 4.52 (#10 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.049 (#18 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.258 (#23 of 30) - Opponent: 0.261 (#13 of 30)
Home Runs: 184 (#8 of 30)
OPS: 0.74 (#20 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 970 (#5 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.14 (#7 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.351 (#7 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 4.06 (#9 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.439 (#23 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 36 (#24 of 30) - Save%: 66.7% (#16 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Juan Pierre - LF
2. Gordon Beckham - 2B
3. Carlos Quentin - RF
4. Paul Konerko - 1B
5. A.J. Pierzynski - C
6. Andruw Jones - DH
7. Alex Rios - CF
8. Mark Teahen - 3B
9. Alexei Ramirez - SS
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Mark Buehrle - LH
2. Jake Peavy - RH
3. John Danks - LH
4. Gavin Floyd - RH
5. Clay Buchholz - RH
Closer. Bobby Jenks - RH

Key Offseason additions: Mark Teahan (3B); Omar Vizquel (SS); Andruw Jones (OF); J.J. Putz (RHP); Juan Pierre (OF)
Key Offseason subtractions: Jermaine Dye (OF); Dewayne Wise (OF); Scott Podsednik (OF); D.J. Carrasco (RHP); Octavio Dotel (RHP)

Strengths: One of the finest starting staffs in the American League. The outfield has a chance to be special with Carlos Quentin, Juan Pierre and Alex Rios, with Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones as backups. Infield is good, but not spectacular. GM Kenny Williams is not afraid to make any deal, thinking in the moment and ahead.

Weaknesses: Definitely need Quentin and Rios to have bounce back years or scoring runs becomes issue. Alexei Ramirez offensive stats were not the same as rookie season and his defense was atrocious at shortstop. Depending on how the season is going, Ozzie Guillen can be a positive or negative influence as skipper.

Rotation Outlook:> Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd, whew four guys that know how to pitch and have post-season experience to boot. Freddie Garcia is lone question mark.

Bullpen Situation: Bobby Jenks was encouraged to drop some pounds and did after posting 3.71 ERA as closer. Newly acquired J.J. Putz was a puttz for the Mets last year and is close to 100 percent, which suggests he can start again challenging hitters with 95+ fastball and tilted slider. One White Sox pitchers that does not receive much pub outside of U.S. Cellular Field is left-hander Matt Thornton. He’s been dynamite the last two years.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 84/Under 84
******* Doug's Take: Has the right look of a club that should rebound from losing season, especially with division not that strong. Chicago could be one of the easier Over plays of the season.
Projected Finish: 1st in AL Central

Take to the bank: Going with not a chance in Hades the Pale Hose are 13-6 against the National League in 2010.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: MANNY ACTA
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 65-97 (40.1%), -32.1 Units (#30 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 77-76-9
******* Power Rating: 88.1 (#23 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 35-46 (-16.3 Units)
Road Games: 30-51 (-15.9 Units)
vs. Division: 30-42 (-11.6 Units)
Interleague Games: 5-13 (-10.5 Units)
Day Games: 25-35 (-7.4 Units)
Night Games: 40-62 (-24.7 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 17-23 (-5.2 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 48-74 (-27.0 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.77 (#12 of 30) - Allowed: 5.34 (#28 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.568 (#24 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.264 (#10 of 30) - Opponent: 0.280 (#29 of 30)
Home Runs: 161 (#15 of 30)
OPS: 0.756 (#12 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 915 (#11 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 5.06 (#10 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.512 (#8 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 4.66 (#28 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.426 (#19 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 25 (#30 of 30) - Save%: 58.1% (#30 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Asdrubal Cabrera - SS
2. Grady Sizemore - CF
3. Shin-Soo Choo - RF
4. Travis Hafner - DH
5. Jhonny Peralta - 3B
6. Matt LaPorta - 1B
7. Michael Brantley - LF
8. Lou Marson - C
9. Luis Valbuena - 2B
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Jake Westbrook - RH
2. Fausto Carmona - RH
3. Justin Masterson - RH
4. Mitch Talbot - RH
5. Aroldis Chapman - LH
Closer. Kerry Wood - RH

Key Offseason additions: 1B Russell Branyan, C Mike Redmond, SP Mitch Talbot, OF Austin Kearns, 2B Mark Grudzielanek, OF Shelley Duncan, 3B Brian Buscher, RP Saul Rivera, RP Jamey Wright, RP Jason Grilli
Key Offseason subtractions: INF Jamey Carroll, C Kelly Shoppach, SP Jose Veras, RP Tomo Ohka, RP Zach Jackson

Strengths: A batting order that has Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner and Jhonny Peralta can’t be half bad, as long as they are not limping around or being assigned to the disabled list. There is also excitement with youngsters like LF Michael Brantley and SS Asdrubal in the starting lineup.

Weaknesses: It is virtually impossible to believe Cleveland was one game away from World Series less than three years ago. Injuries and overachievers took the life out of the Indians and all Cleveland fans keep asking is “What happened?” It is the dawning of new era in this Lake Erie town and though they might score runs during hot streaks, the pitching will determine their fate.

Rotation Outlook:> Scouts were astounded when Fausto Carmona won 19 games in 2007 with 2.55 ERA, as nothing prior to that in his professional career had suggested he would be anything more than a No. 4 or 5 starter. With 13-19 record and ERA over five since, it’s up to Carmona to prove the critics wrong. Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson and David Huff set up to fill spots 2-4, however this could be revolving door even for a team that used 29 pitchers a year ago.

Bullpen Situation: Kerry Wood pretty much threw wood on the fire in his initial season as closer in Tribe uniform. Chris Perez begins the year as ninth inning specialist and is strikeout pitcher. Similar to Wood, can Perez corral command of his fastball each time he’s called to the hill?

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 74.5/Under 74.5
******* Doug's Take: Last year I actually picked Cleveland to win the division and that prognostication was blown to pieces by the end of April. I still see this team better than 65 wins a year ago, however 74 victories is a trifle ambitious, bet the Under.
Projected Finish: 4th in AL Central

Take to the bank: If the heart of the lineup can stay intact, Cleveland will be much better vs. right-handed starters after 48-74 campaign.

DETROIT TIGERS

Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: JIM LEYLAND
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 86-77 (52.8%), -2.2 Units (#15 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 70-86-7
******* Power Rating: 93.2 (#20 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 51-30 (10.5 Units)
Road Games: 35-47 (-12.7 Units)
vs. Division: 39-34 (-1.1 Units)
Interleague Games: 10-8 (0.5 Units)
Day Games: 33-26 (3.6 Units)
Night Games: 53-51 (-5.8 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 29-20 (6.2 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 57-57 (-8.4 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.56 (#16 of 30) - Allowed: 4.57 (#12 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.012 (#16 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.26 (#17 of 30) - Opponent: 0.262 (#15 of 30)
Home Runs: 183 (#9 of 30)
OPS: 0.747 (#14 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 956 (#5 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.29 (#11 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.412 (#10 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 4.34 (#20 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.46 (#26 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 42 (#13 of 30) - Save%: 65.6% (#18 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Austin Jackson - CF
2. Johnny Damon - LF
3. Magglio Ordonez - RF
4. Miguel Cabrera - 1B
5. Carlos Guillen - DH
6. Brandon Inge - 3B
7. Gerald Laird - C
8. Adam Everett - SS
9. Scott Sizemore - 2B
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Justin Verlander - RH
2. Rick Porcello - RH
3. Max Scherzer - RH
4. Jeremy Bonderman - RH
5. Jason Hammel - RH
Closer. Jose Valverde - RH

Key Offseason additions: Jose Valverde (RHP), Johnny Damon (OF), Phil Coke (LHP), Max Scherzer (RHP), Daniel Schlereth (LHP), Brad Thomas (LHP)
Key Offseason subtractions: Curtis Granderson (OF), Edwin Jackson (RHP), Placido Polanco (IF), Aubrey Huff (1B), Brandon Lyon (RHP), Fernando Rodney (RHP), Freddy Dolsi (RHP), Jarrod Washburn (LHP); Nate Robertson (LHP)

Strengths: Ace starter Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello are good starters for Detroit and solid potential rests with Max Scherzer and others. Bullpen packed with arms that throw smoke. Miguel Cabrera is a terrific hitter with extreme power to hit rockets to all fields. Improved defense saved the Tigers a lot of runs compared to 2008.

Weaknesses: Possible hangover from being the fourth team in baseball history to have seven or more game lead on Labor Day and not make postseason. Offense will be down after not being able to keep Curtis Ganderson and Placido Polanco and GM Dave Dombrowski made awful decisions in retrospect paying Maglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Dontrelle Willis big bucks and not receiving anywhere close to equivalent value.

Rotation Outlook:> Verlander is top tier starting pitcher in the American League, with great stuff and mechanics like Brett Favre, in other words they work for him. Porcello had breakout rookie campaign and teams like working behind him since he is quick worker. Scherzer and Armando Galarraga both are capable of being few games over .500 if location is not a major problem. Willis earned fifth starter role, now can he keep it?

Bullpen Situation: Joel Zumaya and Jose Valverde can race the horsehide up to the dish in a hurry and be unhittable. Both also could walk Kevin Garnett on four pitches if the plate was three feet across. Phil Coke brings a World Series ring over from New York and can pitch inside to lefties, being one himself. If his pitches are up, batter will take him yard.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 80.5/Under 80.5
******* Doug's Take: Like many of the squads in the AL Central, every strength is negated by a weakness to a certain degree. Detroit does have bankable pitching, but relievers will either save the day or go bust. Ordonez and Guillen were stealing money last year, if they still have ability in their mid-30’s, they owe it to organization to give their best for the kind of money they are making. The call on Tigers is .500 and would suggest passing.
Projected Finish: 3rd in AL Central

Take to the bank: If Tigers are to remain contenders in division the bullpen has to give more help, since this MoTown team was 27-38 in contests decided by four runs or more.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: TREY HILLMAN
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 65-97 (40.1%), -24.3 Units (#28 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 76-78-8
******* Power Rating: 75.6 (#30 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 33-48 (-17.0 Units)
Road Games: 32-49 (-7.4 Units)
vs. Division: 32-40 (-3.5 Units)
Interleague Games: 8-10 (-2.1 Units)
Day Games: 22-31 (-5.7 Units)
Night Games: 43-66 (-18.6 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 20-36 (-14.9 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 45-61 (-9.5 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.23 (#23 of 30) - Allowed: 5.2 (#27 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.963 (#29 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.259 (#20 of 30) - Opponent: 0.268 (#22 of 30)
Home Runs: 144 (#24 of 30)
OPS: 0.724 (#24 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 949 (#8 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.83 (#14 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.463 (#13 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 5.02 (#27 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.545 (#29 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 34 (#25 of 30) - Save%: 60.7% (#27 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Scott Podsednik - LF
2. Jason Kendall - C
3. David DeJesus - RF
4. Billy Butler - 1B
5. Jose Guillen - DH
6. Alberto Callaspo - 3B
7. Rick Ankiel - CF
8. Yuniesky Betancourt - SS
9. Chris Getz - 2B
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Zack Greinke - RH
2. Gil Meche - RH
3. Luke Hochevar - RH
4. Brian Bannister - RH
5. Brian Moehler - RH
Closer. Joakim Soria - RH

Key Offseason additions: Rick Ankiel (OF); Scott Podsednik (OF); Jason Kendall (C); Chris Getz (2B); Josh Fields (INF); Brian Anderson (OF); Edgar Osuna (LHP); Gaby Hernandez (RHP)
Key Offseason subtractions: Coco Crisp (OF); Miguel Olivo (C); Mike Jacobs (1B); John Buck (C); Mark Teahan (INF); Bruce Chen (LHP); John Bale (LHP); Doug Waechter (RHP); Jamey Wright (RHP)

Strengths: Zach Greinke, 1B/DH Billy Butler and closer Joakim Soria. If “considerable doubt” was a strength, Kansas City would be on par with Boston and New York.

Weaknesses: The Royals begin the year with a good number of players on the DL, which isn’t good news for manager Trey Hillman, who is in “must win” season. “I understand the fans frustration” said Hillman. GM Dayton Moore has made curious moves, some worked, others haven’t and he is sensitive to critics, which he should not be for team that has lost 93 games or more seven of the past nine seasons.

Rotation Outlook:> After Grienke, the drop is similar to tumbling down Mt. Everest. If Gil Meche can come back to 2008 form, that helps however the rest sets up for Over’s in first five inning bets.

Bullpen Situation: Soria is a pleasure to watch, even in Royals uniform. He gets ahead of hitters quickly by throwing strikes. Is in 92-94 MPH range with fastball and will cut it when ahead in the count. Cross-state rival St. Louis would average more wins easily with this Mexico native. Kyle Farnsworth has a job in the major leagues because the radar gun still reaches 98, but serves up WAY too many “room service” pitches to be effective on a good team, let alone the K.C.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 72/Under 72
******* Doug's Take: The people of Kansas City deserve better. A great ball yard to watch a game made even better with recent improvements. You would think playing in the same division as Minnesota, you would learn how to contend or at least get to .500. The feeling is too many things have to fall into place to win 72 games, just doesn’t look like that will happen.
Projected Finish: 5th in AL Central

Take to the bank: Bullpen pitchers before Soria have to compete better or 16-25 record in one run games will be a repeat.

MINNESOTA TWINS

Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: RON GARDENHIRE
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 87-79 (52.4%), -0.8 Units (#14 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 73-82-11
******* Power Rating: 106.2 (#13 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 49-34 (3.6 Units)
Road Games: 38-45 (-4.4 Units)
vs. Division: 46-27 (15.1 Units)
Interleague Games: 12-6 (4.4 Units)
Day Games: 27-32 (-8.8 Units)
Night Games: 60-47 (8.0 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 28-34 (-9.7 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 59-45 (8.9 Units)
Playoffs: 0-3 (-3.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 5.01 (#5 of 30) - Allowed: 4.69 (#17 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 0.319 (#9 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.274 (#3 of 30) - Opponent: 0.272 (#25 of 30)
Home Runs: 172 (#13 of 30)
OPS: 0.774 (#7 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 934.7 (#12 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.50 (#3 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.382 (#3 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.87 (#16 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.358 (#11 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 48 (#4 of 30) - Save%: 75.0% (#7 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Denard Span - LF
2. Orlando Hudson - 2B
3. Joe Mauer - C
4. Justin Morneau - 1B
5. Jason Kubel - DH
6. Michael Cuddyer - RF
7. Delmon Young - LF
8. J.J. Hardy - SS
9. Brendan Harris - 3B
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Scott Baker - RH
2. Carl Pavano - RH
3. Nick Blackburn - RH
4. Manny Parra - LH
5. Francisco Liriano - LH
Closer. Matt Guerrier - RH

Key Offseason additions: J.J. Hardy (SS); Clay Condrey (RHP); Jim Thome (1B/DH); Orlando Hudson (2B)
Key Offseason subtractions: Boof Bonser (RHP); Carlos Gomez (OF); Justin Huber (INF); Orlando Cabrera (SS); Joe Crede (3B); Mike Redmond (C); Jason Pridie (OF); Bobby Keppel (RHP)

Strengths: Forget “Money Ball” the way to compete (not necessarily beat those with deeper pockets) should be known as “Twinkies Rule”. Going on two decades, Minnesota puts out a representative product almost every year the fans can get behind, unless someone in the AL Central runs away and hides. Minnesota has two truly great players in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. The rest is filled in the type of player’s manager Ron Gardenhire prefers, hustlers that go all out for nine innings that have more than one skill set.

Weaknesses: The loss of Joe Nathan is bigger than Minneapolis and St. Paul combined. The term “bullpen by committee” is akin to football’s “prevent defense”, in other words, a negative. The new Target Field while exciting for the team and city, takes away some of the speed element of playing on the carpet and balls that used to be “gappers” might be cut off for singles.

Rotation Outlook:> Above average collection of starters with Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano among others. This group could really use a return to form of Francisco Liriano, who looked like the second coming of Johan Santana before elbow surgery in 2007. Velocity isn’t his problem, its mechanics and stubbornness.

Bullpen Situation: At least the Twins had virtually the entire spring training to get over the shock of losing Nathan. Among the names who will show up in the final frame with Minnesota either leading or tied is Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch and Matt Guerrier. Far from an ideal situation.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 83.5/Under 83.5
******* Doug's Take: While there is no way to know the precise impact Nathan’s injury will have on the Twins, it’s reasonable to assume three to five wins could come into question. If that thought process is accurate, Minnesota is a slightly above .500 team, making this chancy wager either way.
Projected Finish: 2nd in AL Central

Take to the bank: Last season’s 49-32 at home was a splendid record, will new digs be able to show the same results or are Twins to be discounted playing at Target (Field)?

**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2010, 09:59 AM

2010 American League West Preview

Definitely a division on the rise and all games matching these teams should be very competitive. The Angels from Anaheim still have enough in the tank to stay on top with Texas and Seattle really gunning for them using some of their former players against them. Having the best manager is a plus for L.A. The Rangers and Mariners both made improvements, nevertheless do have areas of concern that will have to play out during the season. Oakland is rebuilding with pitching while still holding out hope for new ball yard. Here is a look at what to expect from each team in the A.L. West in 2010, including a take on their Regular Season Win Props and a predicted finish.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Manager: MIKE SCIOSCIA
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 102-69 (59.6%), +23.6 Units (#1 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 85-78-8
******* Power Rating: 118.6 (#4 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 53-33 (7.5 Units)
Road Games: 49-36 (16.2 Units)
vs. Division: 30-27 (-6.2 Units)
Interleague Games: 14-4 (10.7 Units)
Day Games: 37-15 (23.7 Units)
Night Games: 65-54 (-0.1 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 39-20 (15.2 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 63-49 (8.4 Units)
Playoffs: 5-4 (1.2 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 5.45 (#2 of 30) - Allowed: 4.7 (#18 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 0.753 (#4 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.285 (#1 of 30) - Opponent: 0.272 (#24 of 30)
Home Runs: 174 (#11 of 30)
OPS: 0.792 (#3 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 961.7 (#9 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.45 (#15 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.409 (#14 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 4.49 (#24 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.457 (#25 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 51 (#2 of 30) - Save%: 76.1% (#5 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Erick Aybar - SS
2. Bobby Abreu - RF
3. Kendry Morales - 1B
4. Torii Hunter - CF
5. Hideki Matsui - DH
6. Juan Rivera - LF
7. Howie Kendrick - 2B
8. Brandon Wood - 3B
9. Mike Napoli - C
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Jered Weaver - RH
2. Joe Saunders - LH
3. Joel Pineiro - RH
4. Kyle Davies - RH
5. Ervin Santana - RH
Closer. Brian Fuentes - LH

Key Offseason additions: DH Hideki Matsui, SP Joel Pineiro, RP Fernando Rodney, RP Brian Stokes
Key Offseason subtractions: 3B Chone Figgins, DH Vladimir Guerrero, SP John Lackey, OF Gary Matthews Jr., RP Darren Oliver, RP Jose Arredondo, RP Justin Speier

Strengths: Manager Mike Scioscia creates stable environment for National League-style squad that takes the extra base whenever possible and doesn’t give away many runs. Los Angeles scored a franchise record 883 runs in 2009, often playing like a slow-pitch softball team moving runners around the bases. Kendry Morales had a breakout year at first base and collectively the outfielders put up exceptional numbers. Hideki Matsui can put up comparable numbers to departed Vladimir Guerrero at this juncture, but does not have clubhouse presence.

Weaknesses: The self-proclaimed farm system is not yielding the kind of results necessary and division rivals are coming ever so closer. You don’t replace Chone Figgins 114 runs and defense with Brandon Wood at third base. John Lackey was a workhorse and his spot is being taken by Scott Kazmir who has been fragile the last couple of seasons.

Rotation Outlook: Jered Weaver inherits the No. 1 spot in the rotation and showed tangible progress as maturing pitcher and fierce competitor. Los Angeles will need more from Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana in 2010 if the Angels are to remain the class of the AL West. Kazmir in many ways holds the key for Halos. Strikeouts are down; hits allowed are up, two nasty traits from a pitcher being counted on as a 1, 2 or 3.

Bullpen Situation: Brian Fuentes had 48 saves, but had ERA of 3.93 and surrendered 77 baserunners (hits+walks) in 55 innings of work. Kevin Jepsen was one of the most trusted relievers in the second half of last season and they added Fernando Rodney, who throws hard, yet gives out too many free passes. Scioscia usually finds a way to make this work.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 84/Under 84
******* Doug's Take: Always considered step below the Yankees and Red Sox in the American League, the Angels are thought to be really pushed in the AL West this upcoming year. No doubt the replacements don’t look as good as departures, however does a team that started last year without 60 percent of starting rotation, played extensively without Guerrero and Torii Hunter and still won 97 games, fall below 84 wins? Play the Over.
Projected Finish: 1st in AL West

Take to the bank: Part of winning 28 of 46 one run games was blowing late innings leads only to score in last at bat. Will good fortune shine on Angels again or does bullpen do better job. Baseball gods give you only so many chances.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Manager: BOB GEREN
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 75-87 (46.3%), +2.9 Units (#13 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 79-80-3
******* Power Rating: 104.2 (#14 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 40-41 (-3.4 Units)
Road Games: 35-46 (6.2 Units)
vs. Division: 23-34 (-6.6 Units)
Interleague Games: 5-13 (-9.3 Units)
Day Games: 24-28 (-0.1 Units)
Night Games: 51-59 (3.0 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 19-31 (-8.6 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 56-56 (11.4 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.69 (#14 of 30) - Allowed: 4.7 (#19 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.012 (#17 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.262 (#15 of 30) - Opponent: 0.265 (#19 of 30)
Home Runs: 135 (#27 of 30)
OPS: 0.726 (#23 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 888 (#15 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.26 (#6 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.388 (#10 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.56 (#15 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.259 (#2 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 38 (#21 of 30) - Save%: 76.0% (#6 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Coco Crisp - CF
2. Rajai Davis - LF
3. Ryan Sweeney - RF
4. Jack Cust - DH
5. Kurt Suzuki - C
6. Kevin Kouzmanoff - 3B
7. Daric Barton - 1B
8. Mark Ellis - 2B
9. Cliff Pennington - SS
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Ben Sheets - RH
2. Justin Duchscherer - RH
3. Brett Anderson - LH
4. Javier Vazquez - RH
5. Trevor Cahill - RH
Closer. Andrew Bailey - RH

Key Offseason additions: Ben Sheets (RHP), Coco Crisp (OF), Jake Fox (OF), Aaron Miles (2B)
Key Offseason subtractions: Bobby Crosby (1B), Nomar Garciaparra (1B), Scott Hairston OF), Aaron Cunningham (RF), Adam Kennedy (2B), Santiago Casilla (RHP), Jeff Gray (RHP)

Strengths: Oakland’s kiddie corps brought back memories of the Hudson-Mulder-Zito days. Lefty Brett Anderson is the best of this batch, with Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, Vic Mazzaro and Gio Gonzalez all battling for spots. The bullpen was the best in the American League with 3.54 ERA. Andrew Bailey made a strong first impression as closer and rest of pen should be strength again this season.

Weaknesses: GM Billy Beane used to be the smartest guy on the block, but his relevance is about the same as a bag phone. Oakland had the fewest home runs in junior circuit and its slugging percentage was below .400. Catcher Kurt Suzuki is the closest thing to being best as his position in the division. Eric Chavez is a nice fellow, but five surgeries later, his body isn’t going to hold up no matter where the A’s try and play him.

Rotation Outlook: Anderson has great poise and polish for a young hurler and should only get better. Mazzaro made good impression and needs increased stamina to help club. Braden has deceptive delivery, but fastball tops out around 90 and has to hit locations to be efficient. Scouts love Gonzalez, but his quirky temperament worries people.

Bullpen Situation: Bailey is converted starter and has good command of three pitches. Opposing batters hit .167 against him. Chad Gaudin returns to wear the green and gold and will be welcomed addition to the bullpen. Will non-starters be as effective again this year, probably not, however should still be the best in division.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 79/Under 79
******* Doug's Take: The rest of the AL West is improving behind the Angels, with Oakland treading water. Chad Fox will help with offense as DH or wherever they decide to hide his iron glove. Outfield could be improved with additional seasoning, but lacks any thump at the plate. If this was Scottrade, after three years of 76, 75, 75 wins, the prospects to reach 78 wins seem small.
Projected Finish: 4th in AL West

Take to the bank: Oakland hitters have to find answers for left-handed pitchers (19-31 LY) or zero chance for improvement.

SEATTLE MARINERS

Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Manager: DON WAKAMATSU
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 85-77 (52.5%), +12.5 Units (#6 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 66-88-8
******* Power Rating: 96.5 (#18 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 48-33 (12.6 Units)
Road Games: 37-44 (0.0 Units)
vs. Division: 31-26 (5.7 Units)
Interleague Games: 11-7 (4.5 Units)
Day Games: 26-21 (7.1 Units)
Night Games: 59-56 (5.5 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 28-30 (-1.2 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 57-47 (13.7 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 3.95 (#29 of 30) - Allowed: 4.27 (#6 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.321 (#21 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.258 (#21 of 30) - Opponent: 0.247 (#4 of 30)
Home Runs: 160 (#17 of 30)
OPS: 0.716 (#26 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 961.3 (#4 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 3.87 (#6 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.303 (#4 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.83 (#8 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.335 (#9 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 49 (#3 of 30) - Save%: 63.6% (#23 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Ichiro Suzuki - RF
2. Chone Figgins - 2B
3. Jose Lopez - 3B
4. Milton Bradley - LF
5. Franklin Gutierrez - CF
6. Ken Griffey Jr. - DH
7. Casey Kotchman - 1B
8. Rob Johson - C
9. Jack Wilson - SS
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Felix Hernandez - RH
2. Cliff Lee - LH
3. Ryan Rowland-Smith - LH
4. Jonathan Sanchez - LH
5. Jason Vargas - RH
Closer. David Aardsma - RH

Key Offseason additions: Cliff Lee (LHP); Chone Figgins (3B); Milton Bradley (LF); Brandon League (RHP); Eric Byrnes (OF); Josh Bard (C); Kanekoa Texeira (RHP)
Key Offseason subtractions: Adrian Beltre (3B); Russell Branyan (1B); Bill Hall (UTIL); Kenji Johjima (C); Carlos Silva (RHP); Chris Jakubauskas (RHP); Endy Chavez (OF)

Strengths: Seattle is psyched for baseball in 2010 with a number off-season moves they’ve made. Chone Figgins gives the Mariners electricity at the top of batting order with Ichiro Suzuki. Seattle keeping fingers crossed the good Milton Bradley returns after regrettable year with the Cubs. Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez are supposed to keep opponents off the bases like they have the last couple of years, but first Lee has to get completely healthy.

Weaknesses: After Ichiro and Figgins, the rest of the batting order becomes much less imposing. Casey Kotchman has hit .270 the last two years with a grand total of 21 home runs, not exactly No. 3 hitter material. Milton Bradley has been a good hitter in the past but batting cleanup for a club supposedly a division contender? Mike Sweeney or Ken Griffey Jr. in the five-hole leaves more to be desired. Doesn’t remind M’s fans of 1997 lineup that had a much younger Junior, A-Rod and Edgar Martinez.

Rotation Outlook: Seattle is going to need Lee to get healthy in a hurry; otherwise the starting staff is very similar to a season ago. Ryan Rowland-Smith will be given a chance from Day One to prove he can pitch in regular rotation. After that, with no Lee it is King Felix, Ian Snell, Doug Fister and Jason Vargas, the last three hardly frightening.

Bullpen Situation: David Aardsma burst onto the scene with 38 saves and 2.52 ERA after being a flame-throwing journeyman reliever. The Mariners have Mark Lowe who throws heat and Sean White shows promise and gets inside on right-hand hitters.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 83.5/Under 83.5
******* Doug's Take: The initial response would be this easy winner. Seattle made several moves to improve club, their defense with CF Franklin Gutierrez chasing down a number of outs and the defense in the infield will only get better with Figgins and Kotchman reunited from Anaheim days. The offense is still a concern and if this team was really that much better why have oddsmakers presented lower total than what the M’s finished with when they won 85 games. As long as Lee comes back in April, the Over is possible, but I’m going contrarian and taking the Under, not sold on Seattle.
Projected Finish: 3rd in AL West

Take to the bank: One run wins and losses tend to be random events. The M’s were 35-20 in 2009, which should reality check in this campaign.

TEXAS RANGERS

Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Manager: RON WASHINGTON
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 87-75 (53.7%), +12.5 Units (#5 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 61-92-9
******* Power Rating: 102.2 (#15 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 48-33 (7.9 Units)
Road Games: 39-42 (4.7 Units)
vs. Division: 30-27 (1.8 Units)
Interleague Games: 9-9 (-1.7 Units)
Day Games: 24-20 (6.4 Units)
Night Games: 63-55 (6.2 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 29-27 (1.1 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 58-48 (11.4 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.84 (#10 of 30) - Allowed: 4.57 (#13 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 0.272 (#12 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.26 (#19 of 30) - Opponent: 0.260 (#12 of 30)
Home Runs: 224 (#3 of 30)
OPS: 0.764 (#10 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 950 (#7 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.38 (#6 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.368 (#11 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.95 (#11 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.32 (#4 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 45 (#5 of 30) - Save%: 78.9% (#1 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Julio Borbon - CF
2. Michael Young - 3B
3. Josh Hamilton - LF
4. Vladimir Guerrero - DH
5. Ian Kinsler - 2B
6. Nelson Cruz - RF
7. Chris Davis - 1B
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - C
9. Elvis Andrus - SS
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Scott Feldman - RH
2. Rich Harden - RH
3. C.J. Wilson - LH
4. Jeff Niemann - RH
5. Matt Harrison - LH
Closer. Frank Francisco - RH

Key Offseason additions: Vladimir Guerrero (DH); Chris Ray (RHP); Darren Oliver (LHP); Clay Rapada (LHP); Endy Chavez (OF); Matt Treanor (C); Gregorio Petit (INF)
Key Offseason subtractions: Kevin Millwood (RHP); Ivan Rodriguez (C); Omar Vizquel (INF); Andruw Jones (OF); Eddie Guardado (LHP); Marlon Byrd (OF); Joe Inglett (INF); Joaquin Benoit (RHP); Hank Blalock (1B/DH); Jason Jennings (RHP)

Strengths: Hitting and scoring runs. Having Rangers Ballpark almost assures Texas will score runs and they believe a healthy Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero will only enhance their ability to circle the bases. 3B Michael Young is a professional hitter and Ian Kinsler is a dead fastball hitter with his quick bat. Nolan Ryan has altered the organizational though process for pitching to stop worrying about the park and instead have aggressive hurlers that throw strikes and the results yielded first winning season since 2004. Another positive and potential strength for the Rangers, a great attitude knowing they can hit and pitch most nights.

Weaknesses: No question the atmosphere has changed under Ryan’s guidance, but many of the pitchers are going to see a second tour of duty, this time with expectations. Baseball insiders wondered if Hamilton’s past would lead to physical breakdowns and last year they were correct. Will the 28-year return to health or is 100 -120 games going to be the max? Vlad Guerrero should love swinging half a season in Arlington, but will beat-up body hold up in the Texas heat even if he is only DH.

Rotation Outlook: Texas took a calculated risk signing Rich Harden. The former A’s and Cubs right-hander hasn’t pitched more than 150 innings in years, but still is strikeout pitcher with a couple different fastballs and mixes in slider. Last season his mechanics were flawed and gave up to many home runs, needs a return to form to be beneficial to new team. Scott Feldman had bust-out campaign in winning 17 games and flourished being more aggressive going after hitters instead of nibbling. Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis will be counted on to be innings-eaters and C.J. Wilson moves up from the pen.

Bullpen Situation: This has become a dependable area instead of one that needed a fire truck nearby. Frank Francisco spots mid-90’s fastball as closer and newly added Darren Oliver and Chris Ray are proven set-up men along with holdover Darren O’Day. As long as this group is not overworked, results expected to be quite good.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 83.5/Under 83.5
******* Doug's Take: If the pitching can again rank above American League average for ERA, no reason the Texas shouldn’t come very close to matching last year’s total of 87 wins. Play Over.
Projected Finish: 2nd in AL West

Take to the bank: With most double-headers makeup games as opposed to scheduled, even if were to happen again Texas would end up playing in four of them, hard pressed to believe they would match 7-1 record from last year.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2010, 10:00 AM

2010 National League East Preview

The Florida Marlins keep putting a representative product in the field, in spite of the ownership. Kind of like the Cleveland Indians in the first “Major League” movie. Atlanta has made a few strides and manager Bobby Cox announced he won’t be sitting in Braves dugout after this year. The Mets have as many questions as Ask.com gets in a day and while Washington FINNALY has some long term hope with prospects, the short term is dismal yet again. That leaves the best team in the National League Philadelphia, to yet again reign supreme in the NL East. Here is a look at what to expect from each team in the N.L. East in 2010, including a take on their Regular Season Win Props and a predicted finish.

ATLANTA BRAVES

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Manager: BOBBY COX
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 86-76 (53.1%), -10.7 Units (#20 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 71-84-7
******* Power Rating: 120.1 (#2 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 40-41 (-22.9 Units)
Road Games: 46-35 (12.2 Units)
vs. Division: 41-31 (0.7 Units)
Interleague Games: 7-8 (-0.8 Units)
Day Games: 24-21 (-0.4 Units)
Night Games: 62-55 (-10.3 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 31-22 (5.7 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 55-54 (-16.4 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.54 (#17 of 30) - Allowed: 3.96 (#4 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 0.580 (#6 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.263 (#11 of 30) - Opponent: 0.254 (#6 of 30)
Home Runs: 149 (#22 of 30)
OPS: 0.744 (#17 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 986 (#2 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 3.58 (#3 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.319 (#5 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.68 (#3 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.42 (#18 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 38 (#22 of 30) - Save%: 65.5% (#19 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Nate McClouth - CF
2. Martin Prado - 2B
3. Chipper Jones - 3B
4. Troy Glaus - 1B
5. Brian McCann - C
6. Yunel Escobar - SS
7. Jason Heyward - RF
8. Matt Diaz - LF
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Derek Lowe - RH
2. Jair Jurrjens - RH
3. Tommy Hudson - RH
4. Tim Hudson - RH
5. Rodrigo Lopez - RH
Closer. Billy Wagner - LH

Key Offseason additions: RP Billy Wagner, OF Melky Cabrera, RP Scott Proctor, RP Takashi Saito, RP Jesse Chavez, 1B/3B Troy Glaus, RF Eric Hinske, INF Joe Thurston
Key Offseason subtractions: SP Javier Vazquez, LF Garret Anderson, OF Ryan Church, RP Mike Gonzalez, RP Rafael Soriano, 2B Kelly Johnson, 1B Adam LaRoche, 1B/OF Greg Norton, SP Buddy Carlyle, RP Boone Logan

Strengths: The steadying influence of Bobby Cox as manager. Though he has just one World Series ring in his 25 years as Atlanta manager (two stints) he reeled off 14 consecutive post-season appearances and has a club that could get back to playoffs in 2010, in what he has said is his final year as Braves skipper. Atlanta has the best starting staff in the division and had the third best record in the National League from June 28 out. Watch for Jason Hayword, a special talent.

Weaknesses: Old and injury-prone at the corners with Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones. Outfield hitting bats are more inconsistent than preferred, though the acquisition of Nate McLouth was a plus. The lineup lacks balance with mostly left-handed hitters.

Rotation Outlook: Easily the best in the NL East. No official ace to the staff, but starting pitchers that would No. 2 or No. 3’s wherever they were. Tim Hudson has given the appearance he’s all the way back from surgery and Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are a quality blend.

Bullpen Situation: Atlanta’s bullpen gave away several games early last season and change has occurred to upgrade. Long-time veterans Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito were added, putting sidewinder Peter Moylan in set-up role. Should no longer be a weakness.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 86/Under 86
******* Doug's Take: The hitting might go thru some rough spots during the course of the year, like any club, yet the pitching looks good enough to carry them past those periods. Pencil the Bravos in for 87 wins with a chance at making the playoffs in Bobby Cox final year.
Projected Finish: 2nd in NL East

Take to the bank: Atlanta wins more than 40 home games this season.

FLORIDA MARLINS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Manager: FREDI GONZALEZ
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 87-75 (53.7%), +9.0 Units (#7 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 82-70-10
******* Power Rating: 109.3 (#10 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 43-38 (-5.8 Units)
Road Games: 44-37 (14.8 Units)
vs. Division: 42-30 (12.3 Units)
Interleague Games: 10-8 (4.6 Units)
Day Games: 23-24 (-3.0 Units)
Night Games: 64-51 (11.9 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 29-22 (6.9 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 58-53 (2.1 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.77 (#13 of 30) - Allowed: 4.73 (#20 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 0.043 (#15 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.268 (#8 of 30) - Opponent: 0.257 (#8 of 30)
Home Runs: 159 (#19 of 30)
OPS: 0.756 (#13 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 903 (#6 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.29 (#12 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.401 (#11 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.89 (#19 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.43 (#21 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 45 (#8 of 30) - Save%: 67.2% (#14 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Chris Coghlan - LF
2. Cameron Maybin - CF
3. Hanley Ramirez - SS
4. Jorge Cantu - 3B
5. Dan Uggla - 2B
6. Cody Ross - RF
7. Gaby Sanchez - 1B
8. John Baker - C
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Josh Johnson - RH
2. Ricky Nolasco - RH
3. Anibal Sanchez - RH
4. Chris Volstad - RH
5. Dontrelle Willis - LH
Closer. Leo Nunez - RH

Key Offseason additions: RP Jose Veras, RP Seth McClung, INF Hector Luna, INF Mike Lamb, INF Brian Barden
Key Offseason subtractions: RP Scott Proctor, 1B Ross Gload, RF Jeremy Hermida, 1B Nick Johnson, RP Brendan Donnelly, RP Kiko Calero, RP Matt Lindstrom, OF Alfredo Amezaga

Strengths: Florida continues to put a product on the field that is the envy of teams that actually can and want to spend money, just not wisely. The Marlins front office has always had an eye for talent and been able to find a Hanley Ramirez and other lesser names that can hit and run. If starting pitchers meld together, could be another surprising season that nobody cares about in South Florida.

Weaknesses: Ownership. Jeff Loria has a farm system that continues to deliver well beyond expectations despite his penny-pinching ways. Fredi Gonzalez is not Tony LaRussa in the baseball hierarchy of managers, but he’s dealing with unrealistic expectations from an owner who wants a playoff team, despite laughable payroll and dead ballpark with low attendance. With baseball’s emphasis on defense, Florida doesn’t measure up.

Rotation Outlook: Josh Johnson and Rick Nolasco are potentially as good a twosome as you will find in the division. Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller have to work harder to be more consistent, since talent-wise the goods are there, but the mental aspect needs improvement. Both need mechanics that offer same arm slot on various pitches.

Bullpen Situation: Leo Nunez is the closer, however the rest of the bullpen is like it has been the last several seasons with this ownership, a tryout camp that more or less works by the middle of the season.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 80.5/Under 80.5
******* Doug's Take: Talent-wise Florida is a contender if the bullpen is figured out by May. The rub is will the ownership keep the club together or do they move Dan Uggla to save money? Enough hitting and pitching to climb Over the total, but only if management wants to win.
Projected Finish: 3rd in NL East

Take to the bank: Fish won’t be so lucky to be 30-20 in one run games this season.

NEW YORK METS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Manager: JERRY MANUEL
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 70-92 (43.2%), -15.0 Units (#23 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 72-81-9
******* Power Rating: 81.7 (#27 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 41-40 (-1.1 Units)
Road Games: 29-52 (-13.9 Units)
vs. Division: 28-44 (-15.4 Units)
Interleague Games: 5-10 (-3.1 Units)
Day Games: 30-26 (9.1 Units)
Night Games: 40-66 (-24.1 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 16-27 (-9.7 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 54-65 (-5.4 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.14 (#25 of 30) - Allowed: 4.68 (#16 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.537 (#23 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.270 (#5 of 30) - Opponent: 0.264 (#17 of 30)
Home Runs: 95 (#30 of 30)
OPS: 0.729 (#22 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 924.3 (#13 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.45 (#4 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.45 (#4 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.89 (#12 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.429 (#20 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 39 (#19 of 30) - Save%: 66.1% (#17 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Jose Reyes - SS
2. Luis Castillo - 2B
3. David Wright - 3B
4. Jason Bay - LF
5. Daniel Murphy - 1B
6. Jeff Francoeur - RF
7. Angel Pagan - CF
8. Rod Barajas - C
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Johan Santana - LH
2. Mike Pelfrey - RH
3. John Maine - RH
4. Kevin Slowey - RH
5. Jonathon Niese - LH
Closer. Francisco Rodriguez - RH

Key Offseason additions: LF Jason Bay, CF Gary Matthews Jr., RP Ryota Igarashi, C Rod Barajas, RP Kelvim Escobar, INF Alex Cora, C Henry Blanco
Key Offseason subtractions: 1B Carlos Delgado, RP J.J. Putz, LF Gary Sheffield, C Brian Schneider, RP Brian Stokes, SP Tim Redding, OF Cory Sullivan, OF Jeremy Reed, RP Lance Broadway

Strengths: Have a great deal of individual talent in the everyday lineup and in the pitching staff. David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are All-Star material if healthy and having Johan Santana at the top of the rotation and Francisco Rodriguez as closer gives this team a chance. Jason Bey adds offensive punch, however interesting to watch ballpark effect on him.

Weaknesses: Beyond the aforementioned players are lots of holes and question marks. Injuries knocked out Beltran and Reyes and the shortstop is attempting to overcome elevated thyroid hormone blood levels. Their replacements added nothing. Watch how the Mets adjust to playing in cavernous Citi Field, where home runs went to die at least for the Mets. Despite Metropolitans fans thinking they had the right kind of players to flourish, New York was out-homered 81-49 at home and only had 46 over the fence on the road. Not exactly the Yankees.

Rotation Outlook: After Santana, almost impossible to predict. John Maine and Mike Pelfrey are in pitchers park and neither did a thing last season, will they be better in 2010? Oliver Perez and Jon Niese are thought to be in the four and five spots, but Nelson Figeroa had an excellent spring and might see spot duty.

Bullpen Situation: This is undetermined at this juncture as Jerry Manuel is trying to find the right pieces to match with K-Rod. Rodriguez doesn’t throw as hard as he used to, however his curve and changeup cause a lot of swings and misses.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 81/Under 81
******* Doug's Take: I would stay away from this one. If completely healthy and things fall into place, 85 wins a possibility. However, if Reyes isn’t playing 145 games at top speed and the pitching staff remains inconsistent, 75 wins is also a possibility. With less pressure to perform, the slightest of leans for 82 wins.
Projected Finish: 4th in NL East

Take to the bank: Metropolitans improve on 29-52 road record from a year ago.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Manager: CHARLIE MANUEL
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 102-75 (57.6%), +4.4 Units (#11 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 81-88-8
******* Power Rating: 119.9 (#3 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 50-39 (-8.2 Units)
Road Games: 52-36 (12.6 Units)
vs. Division: 44-28 (6.5 Units)
Interleague Games: 8-16 (-8.7 Units)
Day Games: 31-18 (7.8 Units)
Night Games: 71-57 (-3.5 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 32-19 (9.5 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 70-56 (-5.2 Units)
Playoffs: 9-6 (3.3 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 5.06 (#4 of 30) - Allowed: 4.38 (#7 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 0.685 (#5 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.258 (#22 of 30) - Opponent: 0.264 (#18 of 30)
Home Runs: 224 (#2 of 30)
OPS: 0.781 (#6 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 963.7 (#9 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.16 (#8 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.352 (#8 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.88 (#10 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.38 (#14 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 44 (#11 of 30) - Save%: 66.7% (#15 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Jimmy Rollins - SS
2. Placido Polanco - 3B
3. Chase Utley - 2B
4. Ryan Howard - 1B
5. Jayson Werth - RF
6. Raul Ibanez - LF
7. Shane Victorino - CF
8. Carlos Ruiz - C
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Roy Halladay - RH
2. Cole Hamels - LH
3. Joe Blanton - RH
4. Dallas Braden - LH
5. Jamie Moyer - LH
Closer. Brad Lidge - RH

Key Offseason additions: SP Roy Halladay, 3B Placido Polanco, RP Danys Baez, C Brian Schneider, SP/RP Jose Contreras, INF Juan Castro, 1B Ross Gload
Key Offseason subtractions: SP Cliff Lee, RP Scott Eyre, 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Brett Myers, RHP Clay Condrey, INF Eric Bruntlett, SP Pedro Martinez, RP Chan Ho Park

Strengths: The model franchise of the National League. No team has as many top of line every day players that can score runs and play defense. Because the Phillies hit home runs, they are less prone to scoring droughts if a couple of guys are in hitting slumps for a period of time. The pitching staff became considerably better with the addition of Roy Halladay. Manager Charlie Manuel won’t be listed among the best managers in the game, however he is perfect fit for this bunch.

Weaknesses: The bullpen if Brad Lidge is an issue again. How does Placido Polanco handle playing third base? Beyond this need a microscope to find many warts.

Rotation Outlook: If Cole Hamels regains confidence, the 1-2 punch of him and Doc Halladay gives Philadelphia a chance to take a number of three games series when the schedule fall that way. J.A. Happ really came into his own last year with 12-4 campaign and was the Phils best pitcher when they were scuffling in the early going of 2009. Joe Blanton is good for five to six innings and “older than dirt” Jamie Moyer fills out a good rotation.

Bullpen Situation: Ryan Madsen was the most valuable component to the pen last year and he will no less so in 2010. Throws in the low to mid-90’s and proved he could close if Lidge were to get off to rocky start again. J.C. Romero should be back to health and ready to shutdown lefty hitters. (Note: Lidge and Romero start season on DL)

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 92.5/Under 92
******* Doug's Take: What is not to like about the Phillies? Home run power, players that get on base with plate discipline and tough-minded willingness to not give up. They have won 92 and 93 games the last two seasons, thus the number is spot on. I’m expecting the division competition to be a little stronger, making this an Under call at 89 or 90 wins.
Projected Finish: 1st in NL East

Take to the bank: Phillies don’t top 48 road wins in 2010.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Manager: JIM RIGGLEMAN
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 59-103 (36.4%), -26.3 Units (#29 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 72-83-7
******* Power Rating: 81.1 (#28 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 33-48 (-12.3 Units)
Road Games: 26-55 (-14.1 Units)
vs. Division: 25-47 (-12.4 Units)
Interleague Games: 7-11 (-1.4 Units)
Day Games: 21-26 (0.2 Units)
Night Games: 38-77 (-26.5 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 10-23 (-11.8 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 49-80 (-14.6 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.38 (#22 of 30) - Allowed: 5.4 (#29 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -1.012 (#30 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.258 (#24 of 30) - Opponent: 0.276 (#28 of 30)
Home Runs: 156 (#21 of 30)
OPS: 0.743 (#18 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 901.3 (#9 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 5.00 (#8 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.518 (#13 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 5.09 (#30 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.581 (#30 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 33 (#26 of 30) - Save%: 60.0% (#28 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Nyjer Morgan - CF
2. Ian Desmond - SS
3. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B
4. Adam Dunn - 1B
5. Josh Willingham - LF
6. Adam Kennedy - 2B
7. Ivan Rodriguez - C
8. Willie Harris - RF
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. John Lannan - LH
2. Jason Marquis - RH
3. Craig Stammen - RH
4. Marc Rzepczynski - LH
5. Garrett Mock - RH
Closer. Matt Capps - RH

Key Offseason additions: C Ivan Rodriguez, SP Jason Marquis, SP Chien-Ming Wang, RP Brian Bruney, RP Tyler Walker, 2B Adam Kennedy, OF Willy Taveras, SP/RP Miguel Batista
Key Offseason subtractions: RP Mike MacDougal, OF Austin Kearns, 1B Dmitri Young, C Josh Bard, RP Saul Rivera, RP Ron Villone, OF Elijah Dukes

Strengths: There aren’t many, however the middle of the lineup that has Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham at least gives Washington a chance to score runs. After that, the best news is pitcher Stephen Strasburg is in the pipeline to be starting pitcher as soon as he’s ready.

Weaknesses: Because of size constraints, have to just stick with the basics. Yes, Jason Marquis won 15 games in Colorado and might have had the best attitude of any pitcher in baseball, not letting the thin air of the Rocky Mountains get to him. His cherry disposition will be tested playing for the Nationals. Many of last year’s pitchers that had a collective ERA of 5 (that means you have to score six to win) are back and Washington was the worst fielding team in the majors.

Rotation Outlook: Marquis at least knows how to pitch, even if he is a third/fourth starter on average teams. Scott Olson, John Lannan and Garrett Mock are all serviceable, but none are overwhelming, meaning they have to nail locations or are quite hittable. Pudge Rodriguez might help them in terms of pitch sequence finding same arm slot for added consistency, but not much else as 38-year old receiver.

Bullpen Situation: Newly acquired Matt Capps and Brian Brunley should be upgrade along with Tyler Clippard and Jason Bergmann. This is still major area of concern and Capps needs to regain form after season in Pittsburgh with 5.80 ERA and teams batting robust .324 against him.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 72/Under 72
******* Doug's Take: This team is years away from being average. I’d move Dunn to American League team for draft choices and improve defense to at least help the pitching staff. Strasburg could sell tickets, but if he’s not ready and gets hurt, than what? Keep him in the minor leagues and if he’s doing as well as expected, the Nats can sell an extra 5,000 tickets for his starts in August and September. Here is the win totals since moving to D.C. – 71, 73, 59 and 59. Seems rather easy to bet the Under.
Projected Finish: 5th in NL East

Take to the bank: Top draft pick Steve Strasburg makes six to eight starts in minors before being called up to wear a hat with “W” on it.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2010, 10:01 AM

2010 National League Central Preview

The off-season brought very little change to this division, with every team losing a few players and adding others for re-tooling more than truly upgrading. The Cardinals look like the class of the Central with tremendous starters at the front of rotation and the game’s best hitter. The Cubs have new owners who said all the right things Chicago fans wanted to hear, but it did not include spending additional money to make the team better. If the Milwaukee offense and the Cincinnati pitchers could be combined into one team, they could push the Redbirds. The Astros are going nowhere and Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh. Here is a look at what to expect from each team in the N.L. Central in 2010, including a take on their Regular Season Win Props and a predicted finish.

CHICAGO CUBS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: LOU PINIELLA
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 83-78 (51.6%), -16.6 Units (#24 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 67-86-8
******* Power Rating: 107.7 (#11 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 46-34 (-6.4 Units)
Road Games: 37-44 (-10.3 Units)
vs. Division: 47-32 (4.6 Units)
Interleague Games: 6-9 (-5.0 Units)
Day Games: 44-34 (-3.3 Units)
Night Games: 39-44 (-13.4 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 16-16 (-3.5 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 67-62 (-13.1 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.39 (#21 of 30) - Allowed: 4.17 (#5 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 0.217 (#13 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.255 (#26 of 30) - Opponent: 0.246 (#3 of 30)
Home Runs: 161 (#14 of 30)
OPS: 0.738 (#21 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 961 (#6 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 3.84 (#5 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.325 (#6 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 4.11 (#14 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.394 (#16 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 40 (#18 of 30) - Save%: 71.4% (#10 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Ryan Theriot - SS
2. Kosuke Fukudome - RF
3. Derrek Lee - 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez - 3B
5. Marlon Byrd - CF
6. Alfonso Soriano - LF
7. Mike Fontenot - 2B
8. Geovany Soto - C
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Carlos Zambrano - RH
2. Ryan Dempster - RH
3. Randy Wells - RH
4. Carlos Silva - RH
5. Freddy Garcia - RH
Closer. Carlos Marmol - RH

Key Offseason additions: CF Marlon Byrd, 1B Chad Tracy, OF Xavier Nady, RP Jeff Gray, RP Carlos Silva
Key Offseason subtractions: RF Milton Bradley, SP Rich Harden, RP Kevin Gregg, IF Aaron Miles, IF Jake Fox, OF Reed Johnson, RP Aaron Heilman

Strengths: The Cubs still have players that can ignite the offense in Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Geovany Soto. The organization took a calculated risk in Milton Bradley and it blew up in their faces last season. Chicago presumes the addition of Marlon Byrd from Texas is a good fit in the middle of the lineup, both from run-production and clubhouse character. Lou Pinella is optimistic the 15 different players that were on the disabled list a year ago will help turnaround season that saw runs scored collapse by 148.

Weaknesses: New ownership brought talk, but not improvement to team that lost 14 more games from 2008 to ’09. Soriano is being moved to the six spot in the batting order; however no true leadoff batter is still available as table-setter, with Ryan Theriot being given the job by default. Defensively, strong at the infield corners, but average at best up the middle.

Rotation Outlook: The Cubs starting pitching was among the best in the senior circuit and that was with Carlos Zambrano winning nine games and being generally disappointing. Big Z is smaller this year, with significant weight loss. Zambrano has promised to be on best behavior (the over/under on explosions is 3.5), while Ryan Dempster looks to regain 2008 form and Ted Lilly and Randy Wells in particular look to be as sharp as they were most of last season.

Bullpen Situation: Witnessed Chicago in spring training and two pitches summed up Carlos Marmol. The first was a sick slurve that one percent of the players in baseball would have even got a bat on, let alone hit fair for a base hit. The very next pitch was a 400-foot home run to the following batter. The rest of the bullpen will have to prove itself like Marmol and Cubs front office would prefer to see Jeff Samardzija start earning the money they overpaid for him.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 83.5/Under 83.5
******* Doug's Take: After three consecutive winning seasons for the first in four decades, the North Siders are at crossroads. The club should be in its prime in terms of players’ ages and probably isn’t as good as the team that won 97 games two years ago, nor as unfulfilling as the squad that labored to win 83. Play the Cubbies for Over based on health should be better.
Projected Finish: 2nd in NL Central

Take to the bank: Cubs improve on 10-28 record as underdog.

CINCINNATI REDS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: DUSTY BAKER
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 78-84 (48.1%), +4.6 Units (#10 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 64-90-8
******* Power Rating: 89.9 (#22 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 39-41 (-3.7 Units)
Road Games: 39-43 (8.3 Units)
vs. Division: 46-34 (18.5 Units)
Interleague Games: 6-9 (-3.2 Units)
Day Games: 23-29 (-3.1 Units)
Night Games: 55-55 (7.7 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 19-25 (-5.8 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 59-59 (10.4 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.15 (#24 of 30) - Allowed: 4.46 (#9 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.309 (#20 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.247 (#29 of 30) - Opponent: 0.258 (#11 of 30)
Home Runs: 158 (#20 of 30)
OPS: 0.712 (#27 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 962.7 (#10 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.18 (#9 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.369 (#7 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.56 (#5 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.323 (#5 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 41 (#14 of 30) - Save%: 77.4% (#2 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Drew Stubbs - CF
2. Orlando Cabrera - SS
3. Joey Votto - 1B
4. Brandon Phillips - 2B
5. Scott Rolen - 3B
6. Jay Bruce - RF
7. Jonny Gomes - LF
8. Ramon Hernandez - C
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Aaron Harang - RH
2. Bronson Arroyo - RH
3. Johnny Cueto - RH
4. Homer Bailey - RH
5. Tom Gorzelanny - LH
Closer. Francisco Cordero - RH

Key Offseason additions: SS Orlando Cabrera, LHP Aroldis Chapman
Key Offseason subtractions: OF Willy Taveras

Strengths: Cincinnati was the hot choice to be a sleeper team and move up the Central Division ladder with its young talent in the field and on the mound. This perception never clicked and the Reds suffered a ninth consecutive losing season. GM Walt Jocketty hopes it was an aberration and players like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce can take the next step in making Cincy a winning club again.

Weaknesses: In the Queen City, debates resound in blogs, bars and chat rooms if Dusty Baker is the best manager for a young team. Baker has always preferred veteran experience and isn’t known for warm and fuzzy side in helping youngsters who go into slumps. Beyond Bruce in right field, the rest of the outfield is less certain production wise.

Rotation Outlook: This will be the area that will determine if Cincinnati enjoys first winning season in years. Johnny Cueto is a strikeout pitcher, Bronson Arroyo is innings-eater who runs like Moen faucet (hot and cold), Aaron Harang thinks he found what has caused him go 12-31 the last two years and Homer Bailey finally tapped into expected potential with 6-1 record in last nine starts with 1.70 ERA. Edinson Volquez is expected back from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break, however his contribution would be minimal.

Bullpen Situation: Francisco Cordero is elite closer with durable arm. The only concern with him is strikeouts have fallen each of the last two seasons. Cordero is backed by Nick Masset and ageless Arthur Rhodes from a group that was third in bullpen ERA behind the Dodgers and Giants last season.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 80/Under 80
******* Doug's Take: While the Reds have several good players under 30, Phillips is the closest to being among the best at his position, the rest are merely average to above. If the pitching evolves as expected, Cincinnati can be expected to have first winning season since 2000.
Projected Finish: 3rd in NL Central

Take to the bank: Reds do better than .500 against right hand starting pitchers.

HOUSTON ASTROS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: BRAD MILLS
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 74-88 (45.7%), -9.1 Units (#19 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 69-87-6
******* Power Rating: 82.6 (#26 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 44-37 (3.0 Units)
Road Games: 30-51 (-12.1 Units)
vs. Division: 31-47 (-15.8 Units)
Interleague Games: 6-9 (-2.1 Units)
Day Games: 24-24 (3.8 Units)
Night Games: 50-64 (-12.9 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 17-21 (-0.9 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 57-67 (-8.3 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 3.97 (#27 of 30) - Allowed: 4.75 (#21 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.784 (#25 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.26 (#18 of 30) - Opponent: 0.275 (#26 of 30)
Home Runs: 142 (#25 of 30)
OPS: 0.719 (#25 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 895.7 (#7 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.54 (#13 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.445 (#12 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 4.16 (#26 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.456 (#24 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 39 (#20 of 30) - Save%: 60.9% (#26 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Michael Bourn - CF
2. Kazuo Matsui - 2B
3. Lance Berkman - 1B
4. Carlos Lee - LF
5. Hunter Pence - RF
6. Pedro Feliz - 3B
7. J.R. Towles - C
8. Tommy Manzella - SS
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Roy Oswalt - RH
2. Wandy Rodriguez - LH
3. Brett Myers - RH
4. Bud Norris - RH
5. Nate Robertson - LH
Closer. Brandon Lyon - RH

Key Offseason additions: 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Brett Myers, RP Brandon Lyon, OF Cory Sullivan, RP Matt Lindstrom
Key Offseason subtractions: SS Miguel Tejada, SP Mike Hampton, RP Jose Valverde, C Chris Coste, OF Darin Erstad, RP LaTroy Hawkins, RP Doug Brocail

Strengths: Familiar names like Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and to a lesser degree Hunter Pence are still the leaders of a team that had 10 winning season in 11 years from 1996 to 2006. Michael Bourn is a top of the order catalyst and outstanding centerfielder. Wandy Rodriguez was one of the best lefty hurlers in the NL in 2009.

Weaknesses: Owner Drayton McLane infatuation with big names has hog-tied GM Ed Wade’s ability to make deals, with payroll top heavy. Oswalt, Berkman and Lee control about 40 percent of the payroll and all are on the backside of careers. The farm system is ranked the poorest by Baseball America.

Rotation Outlook: Ace Oswalt won just eight games a year ago and the 32-year old is even talking retirement once his contract is up as the assortment of nagging injuries mount on his 6’0 185-pound frame. Left-hander Rodriguez was always difficult to beat at Minute Maid Park, but he discovered how to be effective on the road last season in winning 14 games. His further reliance on curveball and improved pitch sequence helped Wandy win. Bud Norris has upside.

Bullpen Situation: Astros had league-worst 26 blown saves and will turn the ball over to fairly reliable Brandon Lyon and hard-throwing Matt Lindstrom. Both have been capable and combustible as closers. The rest of the staff is unproven commodities.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 73.5/Under 73.5
******* Doug's Take: The ‘Stros can thank Pittsburgh for being in the division; otherwise they would occupy the sea floor. First year manager Brad Mills brings intelligence and winners knowledge as bench coach in Boston the last six years, however he’ll quickly find you can’t squeeze bad oranges to make quality orange juice at Minute Maid Park. The total looks right on, possibly falling a game either way.
Projected Finish: 5th in NL Central

Take to the bank: Houston will be +200 underdog more than five times in 2010, compared to last season.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: KEN MACHA
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 80-82 (49.4%), -4.8 Units (#17 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 86-71-5
******* Power Rating: 91.1 (#21 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 40-41 (-11.4 Units)
Road Games: 40-41 (6.6 Units)
vs. Division: 42-37 (4.2 Units)
Interleague Games: 5-10 (-5.2 Units)
Day Games: 23-31 (-9.3 Units)
Night Games: 57-51 (4.5 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 21-18 (3.4 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 59-64 (-8.1 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.85 (#9 of 30) - Allowed: 5.05 (#26 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.204 (#19 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.262 (#14 of 30) - Opponent: 0.268 (#21 of 30)
Home Runs: 182 (#10 of 30)
OPS: 0.767 (#9 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 891 (#11 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.83 (#2 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.467 (#2 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.97 (#23 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.331 (#6 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 44 (#10 of 30) - Save%: 69.8% (#12 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Rickie Weeks - 2B
2. Alcides Escobar - SS
3. Ryan Braun - LF
4. Prince Fielder - 1B
5. Casey McGehee - 3B
6. Corey Hart - RF
7. Gregg Zaun - C
8. Carlos Gomez - CF
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Yovani Gallardo - RH
2. Randy Wolf - LH
3. Doug Davis - LH
4. Hiroki Kuroda - RH
5. Jeff Suppan - RH
Closer. Trevor Hoffman - RH

Key Offseason additions: C Gregg Zaun, CF Carlos Gomez, SP Randy Wolf, SP Doug Davis, C George Kottaras, IF Joe Inglett, OF Jim Edmonds, RP LaTroy Hawkins
Key Offseason subtractions: C Jason Kendall, 2B Felipe Lopez, SS J.J. Hardy, CF Mike Cameron, SP Braden Looper, C Mike Rivera, OF Frank Catalanotto, RP David Weathers, RP Seth McClung

Strengths: Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are one of best lefty-righty combos at the dish in the National League. Casey McGehee is dangerous fastball hitter as third sacker and rookie Alcides Escobar is ready for regular shortstop duty. Centerfielder Carlos Gomez is a good leather-man between two outfielders whose names don’t come up for Golden Gloves.

Weaknesses: Pitching, more on that in a moment. The hometown nine in Milwaukee are not going to run down many balls and their range tends to be how far they can fall in any direction. Ken Macha is at best a middle of the road skipper.

Rotation Outlook: The Brewers pitching staff was a like a punching bag at the local gym, they kept getting hit. Yovani Gallardo is still a blossoming talent at 24, but the rest of the first line starters are pitch-to-contact guys and with a mediocre defense behind them, their frailties are enhanced. Randy Wolf should help, but Miller Park isn’t Dodger Stadium.

Bullpen Situation: How long can Trevor Hoffman stay effective? Hoffman’s ERA of 1.83 was his lowest since 1998 (1.48). Much traveled LaTroy Hawkins almost has to improve a bullpen that contributed to the Brew Crew losing 24 games by five or more runs.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 81/Under 81
******* Doug's Take: This Milwaukee team can finish over .500 if the pitching improves in combination with a steady offense. The only thing, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Projected Finish: 4th in NL Central

Take to the bank: Milwaukee does no better than last year’s 5-10 against the American League.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: JOHN RUSSELL
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 62-99 (38.5%), -23.1 Units (#26 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 70-85-6
******* Power Rating: 76.2 (#29 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 40-41 (2.1 Units)
Road Games: 22-58 (-25.1 Units)
vs. Division: 24-52 (-23.3 Units)
Interleague Games: 8-7 (3.4 Units)
Day Games: 17-38 (-17.0 Units)
Night Games: 45-61 (-6.1 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 18-26 (-2.9 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 44-73 (-20.2 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 3.95 (#28 of 30) - Allowed: 4.77 (#24 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.820 (#27 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.252 (#28 of 30) - Opponent: 0.276 (#27 of 30)
Home Runs: 125 (#28 of 30)
OPS: 0.705 (#28 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 952 (#10 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.59 (#9 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.448 (#9 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 4.61 (#22 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.499 (#27 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 28 (#28 of 30) - Save%: 65.1% (#21 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Andrew McCutchen - CF
2. Akinori Iwamura - 2B
3. Garrett Jones - RF
4. Ryan Doumit - C
5. Lastings Milledge - LF
6. Jeff Clement - 1B
7. Andy LaRoche - 3B
8. Ronny Cedeno - SS
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Zach Duke - LH
2. Ross Ohlendorf - RH
3. Paul Maholm - LH
4. J.A. Happ - LH
5. Daniel McCutchen - RH
Closer. Octavio Dotel - RH

Key Offseason additions: Octavio Dotel (RHP); Bobby Crosby (INF); Akinori Iwamura (2B); Chris Jakubauskas (RHP); Javier Lopez (LHP); Ryan Church (OF); D.J. Carrasco (RHP); Brendan Donnelly (RHP)
Key Offseason subtractions: Jesse Chavez (RHP); Phil Dumatrait (LHP); Matt Capps (RHP)

Strengths: Let’s be truthful, you have no strengths when you have doled out 17 consecutive seasons. Hope does come in centerfielder Andrew McCutchen. Three players in Triple-A could make their way onto the Pittsburgh 25-man roster for manager John Russell, with Pedro Alvarez the most highly thought of.

Weaknesses: Five hurlers that would be back of the rotation performers even on ordinary teams. The field position players are mostly castoffs, deemed expendable by other teams with better players ready to take their place, but more than good enough to hit the field every day in Pirates garb.

Rotation Outlook: Paul Maholm, Zach Duke and Ross Ollendorf were not terrible; nevertheless the term “quality starts” doesn’t come up frequently either. Charlie Morton and Kevin Hart are two more non-descript chuckers.

Bullpen Situation: With Matt Capps gone to Washington, max-effort Joel Hanrahan is closer because he is the least likely to make matters worse. The rest of the pen is best described this way – Bucs relief pitchers threw the third fewest innings but gave up the sixth most hits in the NL.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 69.5/Under 69.5
******* Doug's Take: According to GM Neal Huntington, the salary dump is over and this is the beginning of the foundation of new Pittsburgh era. (Be still my heart) The team’s end of the season payroll was less than what Alex Rodriguez made (23M vs. 25M) yet the owners cleared 15M and have said they’ve put into scouting and the minor leagues. (Wink, wink) The Bucs haven’t won 70 games since 2004, why would they now?
Projected Finish: 6th in NL Central

Take to the bank: Pirates won’t match last season 18-16 winning record over the NL East.

ST LOUIS CARDINALS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: TONY LARUSSA
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 91-74 (55.2%), -2.4 Units (#16 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 69-88-8
******* Power Rating: 112.1 (#9 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 46-36 (-6.7 Units)
Road Games: 45-38 (4.3 Units)
vs. Division: 46-34 (1.7 Units)
Interleague Games: 9-6 (2.3 Units)
Day Games: 29-31 (-11.2 Units)
Night Games: 62-43 (8.8 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 28-23 (-1.8 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 63-51 (-0.5 Units)
Playoffs: 0-3 (-4.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.51 (#18 of 30) - Allowed: 3.95 (#3 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 0.556 (#7 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.263 (#12 of 30) - Opponent: 0.258 (#9 of 30)
Home Runs: 160 (#18 of 30)
OPS: 0.747 (#15 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 1003.7 (#1 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 3.66 (#4 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.296 (#3 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.67 (#1 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.332 (#7 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 43 (#12 of 30) - Save%: 76.8% (#4 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Skip Schumaker - 2B
2. Brandan Ryan - SS
3. Albert Pujols - 1B
4. Matt Holliday - LF
5. Ryan Ludwick - RF
6. Colby Rasmus - CF
7. Yadier Molina - C
8. David Freese - 3B
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Chris Carpenter - RH
2. Adam Wainwright - RH
3. Kyle Lohse - RH
4. Ian Snell - RH
5. Jaime Garcia - LH
Closer. Ryan Franklin - RH

Key Offseason additions: IF Felipe Lopez, SP Brad Penny
Key Offseason subtractions: 3B Mark DeRosa, SP Joel Pineiro, SP John Smoltz, IF Joe Thurston, IF Troy Glaus, OF Rick Ankiel, RP Todd Wellemeyer, RP Brad Thompson

Strengths: Albert Pujols has lineup protection in Matt Holliday and the rest of the starters have varying hitting skills that to generate runs, just not as many as you mightthink. Almost miraculously SS Brendan Ryan and 2B Skip Schumaker formed a union in the middle of the infield. Yadier Molina is the defensive standard in baseball today and is good contact hitter. Ryan Ludwick has fluid stroke with pop in the bat and is prototypical right-fielder who reads the ball off the bat correctly and has good arm with accuracy. Top of the rotation as good as there is.

Weaknesses: Beyond its heavyweights, the rest of team is basically complimentary. Can Ryan Franklin continue to be a shut-down closer or was the playoff meltdown a sign of things to come?

Rotation Outlook: Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright led a rotation that had sparkling 3.66 ERA. Having pitching coach Dave Duncan return is extremely important and he’ll look to fix Brad Penny like he has so many others from the scrap heap. When Duncan does retire, the Cardinals should give him 20 million going away present, since he saved them more than twice that in turning low-priced pitchers into value for Redbirds over the years.

Bullpen Situation: One of manager Tony LaRussa strength’s is mixing and matching pitchers from the middle innings on, with whomever he has. The contingent is well-stocked and again will be valuable asset.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 87.5/Under 87.5
******* Doug's Take: The Central Division is undistinguished, where St. Louis should beat-up on the Pirates, Reds and Astros and hold their own against the Cubs and Brewers. Being able to play Seattle and Oakland at home and weaker American League clubs like Toronto and Kansas City on the road is presumed to add up to 90+ wins again.
Projected Finish: 1st in NL Central

Take to the bank: Cardinals seldom play well against NL West and continue to struggle.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-03-2010, 10:02 AM

2010 National League West Preview

This division is being trumpeted as the best in baseball after three teams won 88 or more games a season ago. This may turn out to be true, yet three of the teams in the division did nothing to improve their teams (Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego) and the weaknesses that existed previously are still there. The NL West is blessed with tremendous young every day players like Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Pablo Sandoval, all 25 years old or younger. Colorado looks like the class, but if the Dodgers develop starting pitching, a season long compelling race is possible. Here is a look at what to expect from each team in the N.L. West in 2010, including a take on their Regular Season Win Props and a predicted finish.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Manager: A.J. HINCH
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 70-92 (43.2%), -23.7 Units (#27 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 74-78-10
******* Power Rating: 93.9 (#19 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 36-44 (-15.9 Units)
Road Games: 34-48 (-7.8 Units)
vs. Division: 30-42 (-11.4 Units)
Interleague Games: 5-10 (-5.3 Units)
Day Games: 18-28 (-12.1 Units)
Night Games: 52-64 (-11.6 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 17-30 (-15.6 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 53-62 (-8.1 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.44 (#20 of 30) - Allowed: 4.83 (#25 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.383 (#22 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.253 (#27 of 30) - Opponent: 0.263 (#16 of 30)
Home Runs: 173 (#12 of 30)
OPS: 0.742 (#19 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 967.7 (#7 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.42 (#1 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.378 (#1 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 4.61 (#25 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.437 (#22 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 36 (#23 of 30) - Save%: 65.5% (#20 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Stephen Drew - SS
2. Conor Jackson - LF
3. Justin Upton - RF
4. Adam LaRoche - 1B
5. Mark Reynolds - 3B
6. Miguel Montero - C
7. Chris Young - CF
8. Kelly Johnson - 2B
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Brandon Webb - RH
2. Dan Haren - RH
3. Edwin Jackson - RH
4. Ian Kennedy - RH
4. Livan Hernandez - RH
Closer. Chad Qualls - RH

Key Offseason additions: RHP Edwin Jackson, RHP Ian Kennedy, 2B Tony Abreu, RHP Aaron Heilman, RHP Bobby Howry, 2B Kelly Johnson, 1B Adam LaRoche
Key Offseason subtractions: RHP Max Scherzer, LHP Daniel Schlereth, 1B Josh Whitesell, LHP Doug Davis, 3B/1B Chad Tracy, OF Eric Byrnes.

Strengths: Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton and Dan Haren are the backbone of this club. Reynolds and Upton supply power and RBI’s (however a reduction in strikeouts would be a big plus) and each is just coming into their own at 26 and 22 years old respectively. Haren proved he could be the ace of the staff when Brandon Webb went down and shouldn’t be as snake-bit (intentional play on words) as last season with run support.

Weaknesses: Thought to be a team on the rise with division title in 2007 with bountiful young players, Arizona finished last in the NL West last season. This will be the determining year if Stephen Drew and Chris Young just suffered off-years and return to upward career path or if it’s time to move on. Manager A.J. Hench has too many players that strike-out too often and are dismissive of defense (29th last season).

Rotation Outlook: Diamondbacks’ fans need a reason to go to park (winning) and the front office decided they needed more veteran pitchers in Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to win now and move prospects that could help in the years to come. Despite talk to the contrary, Arizona is fooling themselves to expect much out of Webb after major surgery.

Bullpen Situation: Chad Qualls is back to close after knee cap injury and once established, throws fastball with late downward movement. Juan Gutierrez is a tough task for right-handed hitters and Aaron Heilman and Bobby Howry should improve bullpen.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 82.5/Under 82.5
******* Doug's Take: The D-Backs have to make better contact, since they put so little pressure on defenses with all the K’s. The defense should be better with Kelly Johnson at second base and manager Hench hopes he meshes quickly with Drew for more double plays. Arizona is better than a season ago, but facing the Yankees, Boston and Detroit keeps them Under the total.
Projected Finish: 4th in NL West

Take to the bank: Arizona will have more than 36 wins at Chase Field this year.

COLORADO ROCKIES

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Manager: JIM TRACY
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 93-73 (56.0%), +13.1 Units (#4 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 75-80-11
******* Power Rating: 116.1 (#7 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 51-32 (7.0 Units)
Road Games: 42-41 (6.1 Units)
vs. Division: 33-39 (-13.4 Units)
Interleague Games: 11-4 (7.9 Units)
Day Games: 32-24 (6.8 Units)
Night Games: 61-49 (6.3 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 28-29 (-4.6 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 65-44 (17.7 Units)
Playoffs: 1-3 (-1.6 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.96 (#6 of 30) - Allowed: 4.41 (#8 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 0.549 (#8 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.261 (#16 of 30) - Opponent: 0.261 (#14 of 30)
Home Runs: 190 (#7 of 30)
OPS: 0.784 (#4 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 971.3 (#4 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.22 (#10 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.359 (#9 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 4.53 (#18 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.364 (#13 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 45 (#6 of 30) - Save%: 73.8% (#8 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Carlos Gonzalez - LF
2. Dexter Fowler - CF
3. Todd Helton - 1B
4. Troy Tulowitzki - SS
5. Brad Hawpe - RF
6. Chris Iannetta - C
7. Ian Stewart - 3B
8. Clint Barmes - 2B
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Ubaldo Jimenez - RH
2. Jeff Francis - LH
3. Aaron Cook - RH
4. Jorge De La Rosa - LH
5. David Huff - LH
Closer. Huston Street - RH

Key Offseason additions: 3B Melvin Mora, C Miguel Olivo, RHP Tim Redding, C Paul Lo Duca, OF Jay Payton
Key Offseason subtractions: 3B Garrett Atkins, RHP Jason Marquis, OF Matt Murton, INF Mike McCoy, RHP Jose Contreras, C Yorvit Torrealba, RHP Joel Peralta, RHP Ryan Speier, RHP Matt Herges, RHP Josh Fogg, LHP Joe Beimel, LHP Alan Embree

Strengths: Colorado has followed the plan laid out by VP and GM Dan O’Dowd, bring up home grown talent to build a solid foundation. This has helped the Rockies win 90 or more games in two of the last three years. Troy Tulowitzki is the established leader of Colorado and Todd Helton has become more of complimentary leader helping the younger players dealing with slumps and the everyday grind. Colorado has four very good outfielders that don’t get a lot of ink but are very productive. Rockies rule at Coors Field.

Weaknesses: This team is prone to funks along with scorching hot streaks. Manager Jim Tracy was the right anecdote for Colorado after being in-season replacement and seeing his team finish 74-42 to make the playoffs. Tracy did not have great success with the Dodgers or Pittsburgh, will this team respond as well now more familiar with his methods. Pitching always a concern.

Rotation Outlook: While the everyday players have received most of the publicity for Rockies rise, it has been the pitching that has taken Colorado from also-ran status to contender. Ubaldo Jimenez has harnessed curve and slider, making his 95+ fastball almost unhittable. Jorge De La Rosa and Aaron Cook help make up what is now solid starting staff.

Bullpen Situation: Huston Street had 35 saves and opposing hitters batted just .194 against him, however he’s still prone to durability issues (starts season on DL) not being big man and definitely wore down late in the season and playoffs. The rest of the pen doesn’t have many names, but each is effective in their own way, especially Franklin Morales.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 85/Under 85
******* Doug's Take: If anything the pitching and defense should be better over the entire season and as long as Colorado plays close to .500 on the road, no reason to believe this club won’t be near or at 90 wins again, putting them Over the total.
Projected Finish: 1st in NL West

Take to the bank: Rockies will do worse against the NL Central (31-11 LY) and better vs. their own division (33-39).

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Manager: JOE TORRE
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 99-71 (58.2%), +7.7 Units (#8 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 76-81-13
******* Power Rating: 118.2 (#5 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 53-32 (3.9 Units)
Road Games: 46-39 (3.9 Units)
vs. Division: 46-26 (10.3 Units)
Interleague Games: 9-9 (-1.7 Units)
Day Games: 29-19 (5.7 Units)
Night Games: 70-52 (2.1 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 27-23 (-6.0 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 72-48 (13.8 Units)
Playoffs: 4-4 (0.4 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.81 (#11 of 30) - Allowed: 3.77 (#1 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 1.043 (#1 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.270 (#4 of 30) - Opponent: 0.233 (#1 of 30)
Home Runs: 145 (#23 of 30)
OPS: 0.758 (#11 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 920.3 (#10 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 3.41 (#1 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.255 (#1 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.17 (#4 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.262 (#3 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 44 (#9 of 30) - Save%: 62.9% (#24 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Rafael Furcal - SS
2. Matt Kemp - CF
3. Andre Ethier - RF
4. Manny Ramirez - LF
5. James Loney - 1B
6. Casey Blake - 3B
7. Russell Martin - C
8. Blake DeWitt - 2B
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Vicente Padilla - RH
2. Clayton Kershaw - LH
3. Chad Billingsley - RH
4. Scott Kazmir - LH
5. Eric Stults - LH
Closer. Jonathan Broxton - RH

Key Offseason additions: RHP Josh Towers, INF Jamey Carroll, RHP Justin Miller, INF Nick Green, OF Reed Johnson, UT Alfredo Meagan, OF Brian Giles, RHP Eric Gagne.
Key Offseason subtractions: LHP Randy Wolf, INF Juan Castro, OF Juan Pierre, INF Mark Loretta, 1B Jim Home, RHP Jon Garland, RHP Guillermo Mota, 2B Orlando Hudson, LHP Eric Milton, RHP Jason Schmidt.

Strengths: The Dodgers have a talented core of young players that are the nucleus of the club, with Matt Kemp, Andre Either, James Loney, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw and Jonathan Broxton. They are complimented with vets like Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake, with the former promising a better season after getting away from what he called “my hitting fundamentals”.

Weaknesses: The most impactful element to Los Angeles success has nothing to do with the product on the field. The owner Frank McCourt and his estranged wife Jamie are going thru very public divorce proceedings. During the offseason, GM Ned Colletti was forced to sit on the sidelines to improve his club with this messy situation. The Dodgers needed a few free agents to shore problem areas and were not able to and selling the team might be the only way for McCourt’s to solve situation, since neither would have the individual resources to maintain club.

Rotation Outlook: Chad Billingsley was 3-7 with ERA over five and wasn’t even a postseason starter at the conclusion of the season. His mental makeup will be tested from opening day. Kershaw is a top of the rotation hurler, but still needs polish to go with “Uncle Charley” curveball and not trail in the count as often. After Hiroki Kuroda, the back of the rotation is unsettled.

Bullpen Situation: Broxton and George Sherrill gave the Dodgers a chance to win when ahead, with their ability to shorten the game and closing down opponents. The greater concern is the middle relief, which threw a ton of innings last season and with the starting staff even less reliable, this group could be worn out by midseason.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 84.5/Under 84.5
******* Doug's Take: We saw what a divorce did to the San Diego Padres and though the Dodgers have far more talented players, the troops behind them are thin and the starting pitching is really troublesome. If L.A. can manufacture a suitable amount of runs to offset the pitching, they would have a chance for Over, however an injury or two or Manny hitting like he did in the second half, leaves this club just over .500 and up for UNDER consideration.
Projected Finish: 2nd in NL West

Take to the bank: Owner McCourt’s soon to be former wife doesn’t get the million a month alimony she’s asking for.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Manager: BUD BLACK
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 75-87 (46.3%), +3.5 Units (#12 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 78-81-3
******* Power Rating: 82.8 (#25 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 42-39 (3.0 Units)
Road Games: 33-48 (0.5 Units)
vs. Division: 33-39 (1.1 Units)
Interleague Games: 5-10 (-4.0 Units)
Day Games: 19-27 (-5.4 Units)
Night Games: 56-60 (8.8 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 26-29 (2.1 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 49-58 (1.4 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 3.94 (#30 of 30) - Allowed: 4.75 (#22 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.809 (#26 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.243 (#30 of 30) - Opponent: 0.258 (#10 of 30)
Home Runs: 141 (#26 of 30)
OPS: 0.701 (#29 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 879 (#11 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.37 (#10 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.396 (#10 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.75 (#21 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.382 (#15 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 45 (#7 of 30) - Save%: 68.2% (#13 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Tony Gwynn Jr. - CF
2. David Eckstein - 2B
3. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B
4. Chase Headley - 3B
5. Kyle Banks - LF
6. Will Venable - RF
7. Nick Hundley - C
8. Everth Cabrera - SS
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Jon Garland - RH
2. Chris Young - RH
3. Kevin Correia - RH
4. Charlie Morton - RH
5. Mat Latos - RH
Closer. Heath Bell - RH

Key Offseason additions: OF Scott Hairston, OF Aaron Cunningham, RHP Jon Garland, C Yorvit Torrealba, INF/OF Jerry Hairston Jr., OF Matt Stairs, C Dusty Ryan, RHP Radhames Liz
Key Offseason subtractions: 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, OF Brian Giles, C Henry Blanco, C Eliezer Alfonzo, INF Edgar Gonzalez, INF Luis Rodriguez, RHP Shawn Hill, RHP Mike Ekstrom, OF Cliff Floyd, RHP Walter Silva, RHP Cha Seung Baek

Strengths: After 100 games in 2009, San Diego stood at 38-62 and seemed destined for 100 loss season. Instead, despite fielding what looked like a JV team besides Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres were 37-25 the rest of the season and bring hope if not talent into 2010. The ownership is stabilized and Jed Hoyer is young GM in first year having learned his trade in Boston organization.

Weaknesses: Beyond Gonzalez, San Diego is faceless team and most figure the sweet-swinging first baseman will be moved at some point during the season. New owner Jeff Moorad bought the Pads on the cheap and insiders believe his group doesn’t have the financial muscle to turnaround depleted farm system and big league club around anytime in the near future.

Rotation Outlook: With Jake Peavy in the American League, Chris Young is now the bell-cow of San Diego pitchers. He is backed up by journeyman Kevin Correia who benefitted by pitching in baseball’s version of the Grand Canyon. Hard-throwing Mat Latos and Clayton Richard both have upsides and will benefit from pitching at Petco Park, however all starters are under pressure with lack of run support. Much traveled Jon Garland joins them.

Bullpen Situation: Among the reasons the Padres exceeded expectations was Heath Bell who took over closer’s role and led the National League with 42 saves. He’s delivers a riding fastball the touches the mid-90’s and loves to setup hitters using a hard curve earlier in the count. Most San Diego fans don’t know the rest of the pitchers in the bullpen.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 71/Under 71
******* Doug's Take: Last year I thought San Diego would be the worst team in baseball and they were not even the worst team in the NL West. Take note the Friars were -131 in run differential (14th in NL) and 23-19 in one run games. Without noticeable improvement of the roster I’ll still call for the Padres to fall short of 70 wins, making them UNDER wager.
Projected Finish: 5th in NL West

Take to the bank: The Friars will have poorer record as an underdog (53-68) this upcoming campaign.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Manager: BRUCE BOCHY
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2009 Record: 88-74 (54.3%), +13.1 Units (#3 of 30)
2009 Totals (O-U-P): 68-82-12
******* Power Rating: 114.4 (#8 of 30)

2009 Situational Records:

Home Games: 52-29 (17.4 Units)
Road Games: 36-45 (-4.4 Units)
vs. Division: 38-34 (4.9 Units)
Interleague Games: 9-6 (2.4 Units)
Day Games: 31-24 (6.1 Units)
Night Games: 57-50 (7.0 Units)
vs. LH Starters: 23-21 (1.6 Units)
vs. RH Starters: 65-53 (11.5 Units)
Playoffs: 0-0 (0.0 Units)

Key 2009 Regular Season Team Stats:

Runs - Scored: 4.06 (#26 of 30) - Allowed: 3.77 (#2 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): 0.284 (#11 of 30)
Batting Average: 0.257 (#25 of 30) - Opponent: 0.236 (#2 of 30)
Home Runs: 122 (#29 of 30)
OPS: 0.699 (#30 of 30)
Starting Pitcher Innings: 985 (#3 of 30)
Starting Pitcher ERA: 3.55 (#2 of 30)
Starting Pitcher WHIP: 1.281 (#2 of 30)
Bullpen ERA: 3.49 (#2 of 30)
Bullpen WHIP: 1.343 (#10 of 30)
Bullpen Saves: 41 (#16 of 30) - Save%: 71.9% (#9 of 30)

Probable Lineup
Order - Player (Pos)
1. Aaron Rowand - CF
2. Juan Uribe - 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval - 3B
4. Aubry Huff - 1B
5. Mark DeRosa - LF
6. Bengie Molina - C
7. Edgar Renteria - SS
8. Nate Schierholtz - RF
Probable Starting Rotation
Order- Player (Throws)
1. Tim Lincecum - RH
2. Barry Zito - LH
3. Matt Cain - RH
4. Clayton Richard - LH
5. Todd Wellemeyer - LH
Closer. Brian Wilson - RH

Key Offseason additions: INF/OF Mark DeRosa, 1B Aubrey Huff, LHP Horacio Ramirez, RHP Guillermo Mota, RHP Todd Wellemeyer
Key Offseason subtractions: RHP Brad Penny, RHP Justin Miller, RHP Bobby Howry, LHP Randy Johnson, RHP Merkin Valdez, OF Randy Winn, 1B Ryan Garko, INF Rich Aurilia, LHP Noah Lowry

Strengths: Loaded with pitching, that has a chance to be even better. Pablo Sandoval is a pure hitter and has worked on conditioning. San Francisco wants to believe Freddy Sanchez can regain stroke that allowed him to hit .344 in 2006. Mark DeRosa will help somewhere. Did I mention pitching?

Weaknesses: As good as the pitching is the starting lineup doesn’t even make an opposing fifth starter feel distressed. Besides Sandoval and Sanchez, no bats to fear with Aaron Rowland at least having some pop in the bat to take mistakes yard. Many baseball experts credit Bengie Molina for bringing along this many youthful pitchers, but his expertise and 90 RBI’s are gone and top prospect Buster Posey is behind the dish with limited even minor league experience.

Rotation Outlook: Tim Lincecum is the premier pitcher in baseball and with greater run support would meet next goal of being 20-game winner. Matt Cain harnessed his immense talent, increasing strikeouts and lowering walks. Jonathan Sanchez showed his ability with July 10 no-hitter and threw more confidently the rest of 2009. Even Barry Zito looked like he belonged on Major League roster more often. Young pitchers can have different results from one year to the next, thus a trickier read.

Bullpen Situation: Brian Wilson is your quintessence closer, with mid-to-high 90’s heater and “hit it if you can” mentality. The remainder of the bullpen is more than sufficient with many interchangeable parts. If left-hander Dan Runzler continues quick ascension, Giants might have to consider moving him into closer role and trading Wilson for another stick.

Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 82.5/Under 82.5
******* Doug's Take: Have to be leery of any team that improves 16 games in a season and still has visible weaknesses. Though Cain and Sanchez made outstanding strides as pitchers, they are now throwing to catcher not wise in calling games at this level. San Francisco seemed to catch the right amount of luck last season and again finishes third with 82 or 83 victories.
Projected Finish: 3rd in NL West

Take to the bank: Despite meager offense, Giants were 37-28 in games

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2010, 08:52 AM

Opening night adds new twist to rivalry

By HOWARD ULMAN AP Sports Writer

BOSTON(AP) -- The rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox is already intense. Throw in a couple of new twists and the hype soars.

Sunday night's game between the storied franchises is the first of the 2010 season, a prime-time showcase all to themselves while other teams wait until Monday for opening day.

And New York starts off as defending champions for the first time since its 2001 opener.

"It's special," Mark Teixeira said. "You're not going to be able to go into the season as defending World Series champs every single year. So when you get a chance to do that, it makes the start of the season that much more fun."

A handful of Boston's players know what that's like. The Red Sox were hailed as champions after winning the 2007 World Series then had to refocus.

"We spent the whole spring telling everybody to move on, so it was kind of a mixed message," manager Terry Francona said.

It will be hard to glean anything from Sunday night's game, though there's sure to be some hand-wringing by the losing team's rabid fan base. The Red Sox won their opener last year and were swept by the Los Angeles Angels in the AL division series. The Yankees started with a loss and finished with their 27th World Series title.

"Opening Night is special regardless of who you're playing," Francona said. "I'm sure there will be a little extra anticipation. I think we just need to win, regardless of who we play."

Boston's Josh Beckett and New York's CC Sabathia will make their second consecutive opening-day starts in what is expected to be unseasonably warm weather.

Last year's Red Sox opener was rained out, but Beckett sparkled in a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay the next day in Boston, allowing one run and two hits with nine strikeouts in seven innings.

Sabathia's opener? Not quite the same.

He looked nothing like the pitcher the Yankees expected when they signed him before the season to a $161 million, seven-year contract. The left-hander allowed six runs and eight hits in 4 1-3 innings with five walks and two wild pitches in a 10-5 loss at Baltimore. He had no strikeouts for the first time since July 25, 2005, at Oakland.

When the season ended, though, he was 19-8 with a 3.37 ERA.

"CC's personality is perfect," Yankees captain Derek Jeter said. "He doesn't get fazed by much. He wants to pitch."

The game originally was scheduled for Monday before being switched, giving the spotlight to teams which have won three of the last six World Series - an attractive matchup for television viewers.

"Opening day, there's always a certain amount of anxiety to go along with the excitement," Francona said. "When's the first pitch? 8:09? That's a long day. There's no way I'm going to go to the ballpark later because it's a later (start). It just doesn't work that way. Get there early and do a lot of sitting around."

The Yankees made the big moves in free agency before last season, adding Sabathia, Teixeira and right-hander A.J. Burnett. The Red Sox nabbed the big name before this season by signing John Lackey, the top starter with the Angels but the No. 3 behind Beckett and lefty Jon Lester with Boston.

How is Beckett looking?

"Good, driven," Francona said. "He's ready to go."

The Yankees let World Series MVP Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon leave as free agents over the winter and traded Melky Cabrera. They picked up center fielder Curtis Granderson, designated hitter Nick Johnson and right-hander Javier Vazquez.

New York also is looking forward to a full year from Alex Rodriguez, who missed the first 28 games last year after hip surgery.

Boston lost left fielder Jason Bay in free agency but upgraded its defense by signing Gold Glovers Mike Cameron to play center and Adrian Beltre for third base. Marco Scutaro takes over at shortstop for Alex Gonzalez.

"I've played the Yankees before," Cameron said. "It's built up more by (the media) than the players. For us, it's always big. Playing here every day is big. I'm not going to try and make it any bigger than it is.

"It's good to see how you match up. They've got a lot of new players. We have a few new players."

The Yankees also take it for what it is, just the first of 162 regular-season games.

"The motivation is simple," Jeter said. "You want to win."

This will be the fourth time in 26 years that the rivals have met in the opener. New York won the last two in 1992 and 2005, both in Yankee Stadium. Boston won at Fenway Park in 1985 and is opening the season at home for just the third time since 1996.

"Going there is always special," said Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte, looking forward to his 16th opening day. "It's fun. The fans make it fun. The atmosphere is always great. The reason why it's so great is the excitement when you walk out of that dugout, the buzz. It doesn't get old."

Pettitte is scheduled to face Lackey in Wednesday's finale of the three-game series. Lester goes against Burnett on Tuesday.

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