Tweet
In NFL, form holds up
LAS VEGAS - Despite all the talk about parity, the NFL regular season ran pretty much to form.
According to division odds released last spring by the Imperial Palace, five of the eight division winners were the favorites (Steelers at 1-3, Raiders at 6-5, Eagles at 5-9, Packers at 5-8, and Buccaneers at 1-2), three were short-priced second choices (Titans at 6-5 and 49ers at 2-1), and only one was a third choice (Jets at 11-5). If the Dolphins hadn't blown an 11-point fourth quarter lead over the Patriots on Sunday, it would have been six favorites and two second choices.
In fact, 22 of the 32 teams finished in the exact spot where the IP oddsmakers put them. That's pretty incredible when you consider that if one team is out of place, then another team must also be out of place. Again, the Dolphins and Jets were the only two that were two spots removed from their predicted order of finish.
Season over/under totals
That Patriots-Dolphins finale also caused a lot of money to change hands in the Imperial Palace's over/under season win totals proposition wagers. The total that caused the most conversation last summer was the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots at over/under 8 1/2 wins. The oddsmakers ended up setting a very solid number. The Pats entered Sunday's game with 8 wins and it looked like they would finish under. But their comeback not only put them over the total, but it also kept the Dolphins (whose total was pegged at 9 1/2) from going over their number.
In all, 14 teams finished within a game of their betting total with two landing exactly on the number. The 49ers had a total of 10 and won 10 (those over bettors had to be kicking themselves after the 49ers blew a 20-3 fourth-quarter lead to the Rams on Monday night). The Steelers also landed on their total of 10, and over bettors had a bad beat in a different sort of way. The house rules specify that that only regular-season wins are counted, so the tie with the Falcons doesn't count for half a win.
The biggest underachievers were the Bengals (with an over/under of 7, they won only 2), Rams (with an over/under of 11 1/2, they only managed 7 wins) and Bears (over/under of 8 1/2, and a final record of 4-12).
The Buccaneers and Giants both exceeded their totals by 2 1/2 wins. The Bucs' total was 9 1/2 and they won 12, while the Giants' total was 7 1/2 and they won 10.
NFL betting trends
As for the week-to-week betting, underdogs finished the season with a 10-6 record against the spread in week 17, bringing their season mark to 141-107 (57 percent) with six pushes.
Home dogs were especially successful, going 5-2 (including four straight up wins) to close the season at 53-36 (60 percent) with two pushes. That probably won't be relevant in the playoffs as we're unlikely to see any home teams installed as underdogs.
Another stat that can be discarded is that home and road teams finished at .500, going 125-125-6 during the regular season. Over and unders were nearly even, as overs (despite finishing 12-20 the past two weeks) closed with a narrow 127-125-3 edge. Note: There's one game missing as the Eagles-Texans game in week 4 didn't have a total.
College bowl betting trends
The college bowl season reached the halfway point following Monday's games as 14 games had been played in 14 days. There were then 14 games to be played Tuesday through Friday.
Through the first 14 games, underdogs had won eight straight up and were 9-4-1 against the spread.
The over/unders were an even seven apiece.
For those who follow the opening bowl line moves posted from the Stardust lottery of Dec. 9, the early bettors were hitting at a 75 percent clip through Monday's bowl games, going 6-2 on sides and 3-1 on totals.
Miami is just too good By DAVE TULEY
The college football season comes to a conclusion Friday night with the Fiesta Bowl/BCS Championship Game between the No. 1-ranked Miami-Fla. Hurricanes and No. 2 Ohio St. Buckeyes.
Miami opened as a 10 1/2-point favorite and was steadily bet up to a 13-point choice. As of noon Wednesday, the line was bouncing back and forth between 12 1/2 and 13. The betting public, made up mostly of tourists in Las Vegas this week for the New Year's festivities, is on the Hurricanes' side, while the professional bettors keep taking the points with the Buckeyes when the game gets bet back up to 13. No book has had to move the line to 13 1/2 to action back on the 'Canes, so it looks like 13 will be the closing number by game time Friday.
I love betting underdogs, and usually don't like being on the side of the public, but I have to back Miami in this game. The Hurricanes just have too much talent; their second string would be pretty close to undefeated.
Both teams have allowed inferior teams to stick around, but Miami has shown the ability to still turn those games into routs. This has been Miami's goal all season, so while the 'Canes have been guilty all season of looking past teams, that won't happen here.
They are additionally motivated by the fact that neither QB Ken Dorsey nor RB Willis McGahee won the Heisman Trophy, plus they've been hearing all week how Maurice Clarett gives the Buckeyes a chance because Miami has been vulnerable against running teams this season. I'd be surprised if he surpasses 100 yards, and I'll be looking for proposition bets on over/under his number of yards or Clarett vs. McGahee.
Of the first 23 bowl games played this year, 13 have been decided by 14 or more points. You often see in bowl games (and in national title games) that the better team gets a lead and then keeps rolling to a big victory.
As exciting as it would be for Ohio St. to pull the upset, I have to go with the chalk.
PLAY: Miami (-12 1/2) for 1 unit.
Handicapping champions crowned
While the NCAA national championship will be decided Friday night, the professional handicapping championships were decided last weekend in Las Vegas.
This year's top winner was "I Walk a Beat," who won $168,600 in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest. The Hilton had a record 281 entrants at $1,500 apiece this year, with the winner taking home 40 percent.
"I Walk a Beat" went 4-1 with his final plays last weekend (SuperContest players pick five NFL sides per week) to finish with a record of 56-29 (65.9 percent winners). He came within a game of earning a $10,000 bonus for hitting 67 percent. His lone loser last weekend was the Falcons (-2 1/2), who squandered a 16-10 fourth-quarter lead and lost 24-16 to the Browns.
"Jersey Red" also went 4-1 to finish only a half-game back at 55-29-1 and claim the second prize of $67,440. "Little Awful Andy," the alias of professional handicapper Andy Iskoe, finished third at 54-31 and receives $33,720, while "Specialists," a group of five men who put up $300 apiece, closed strongly to finish fourth at 53-31-1 and will split earnings of $21,075. Fifth through 10th pays $14,752 and 11th through 20th pays $4,215.
This year, locals casino giant Station Casinos entered the high-end tournament fray with a $1,000 buy-in that attracted 129 entries. R.G. Sports #II went 4-1 last weekend to claim the inaugural event's first-place prize of $64,500 (50 percent of the prize pool) with a record of 53-30-2. Robert Burns and Roland Phillip tied for second at 52-33 and split second- and third-place money for $9,675 apiece. Phillip would have claimed sole possession of second place if the 49ers had held their lead Monday night versus the Rams. Burns was on the Rams. Three contestants tied for fourth and receive $3,010 apiece.
Stations spreads the wealth
While the above competitors were playing for themselves, a season-long media contest at the Station Casinos was held for charity with $1,000 being donated in the name of the media member picking the most straight-up winners in the NFL each week, and $8,000 more being distributed to charity at the end of the season.
Craig Williams of KOMP radio finished with a record of 160-91 to win $3,000 for Ronald McDonald House. David Stratton of GamingToday was second at 155-96 to win $1,000 for the Nevada Chinese Academy, and Richard Eng of the Las Vegas Review-Journal was third at 154-97 to win $500 for Lied Animal Shelter. Eng, also a DRF columnist, went 12-2 the final week (losing the tiebreaker for the $1,000 weekly prize) but vaulted past four people to claim third.
Stations also allotted prize money for those picking the most losers. I finished with the third-most losers and $500 will go to the Sun Camp Fund. Tony Bonnici of Lotus Broadcasting had the most losers and won $2,000 for the Ronald McDonald House and Douglas Marsh of KOMP radio was second to last and also won $1,000 for Ronald McDonald House, which was the biggest winner in the contest with a total of $10,000 of the $25,000 winnings during the contest going to that charity.
Cannery moves up opening day
The Cannery, the Las Vegas valley's newest casino, had its unveiling moved up a day and was to open its doors at 10 p.m. Thursday.
The Cannery, located just west of Interstate 15 on Craig and Lossee roads, has a 1940's industrial theme, complete with smokestack out front, and will market to the booming locals population in North Las Vegas. As such, a huge emphasis will be on the slot floor, which will feature 1,278 machines.
The sports book will gets its odds from The Rampart in Summerlin. There is no race book.
torontopaul
LAS VEGAS - Despite all the talk about parity, the NFL regular season ran pretty much to form.
According to division odds released last spring by the Imperial Palace, five of the eight division winners were the favorites (Steelers at 1-3, Raiders at 6-5, Eagles at 5-9, Packers at 5-8, and Buccaneers at 1-2), three were short-priced second choices (Titans at 6-5 and 49ers at 2-1), and only one was a third choice (Jets at 11-5). If the Dolphins hadn't blown an 11-point fourth quarter lead over the Patriots on Sunday, it would have been six favorites and two second choices.
In fact, 22 of the 32 teams finished in the exact spot where the IP oddsmakers put them. That's pretty incredible when you consider that if one team is out of place, then another team must also be out of place. Again, the Dolphins and Jets were the only two that were two spots removed from their predicted order of finish.
Season over/under totals
That Patriots-Dolphins finale also caused a lot of money to change hands in the Imperial Palace's over/under season win totals proposition wagers. The total that caused the most conversation last summer was the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots at over/under 8 1/2 wins. The oddsmakers ended up setting a very solid number. The Pats entered Sunday's game with 8 wins and it looked like they would finish under. But their comeback not only put them over the total, but it also kept the Dolphins (whose total was pegged at 9 1/2) from going over their number.
In all, 14 teams finished within a game of their betting total with two landing exactly on the number. The 49ers had a total of 10 and won 10 (those over bettors had to be kicking themselves after the 49ers blew a 20-3 fourth-quarter lead to the Rams on Monday night). The Steelers also landed on their total of 10, and over bettors had a bad beat in a different sort of way. The house rules specify that that only regular-season wins are counted, so the tie with the Falcons doesn't count for half a win.
The biggest underachievers were the Bengals (with an over/under of 7, they won only 2), Rams (with an over/under of 11 1/2, they only managed 7 wins) and Bears (over/under of 8 1/2, and a final record of 4-12).
The Buccaneers and Giants both exceeded their totals by 2 1/2 wins. The Bucs' total was 9 1/2 and they won 12, while the Giants' total was 7 1/2 and they won 10.
NFL betting trends
As for the week-to-week betting, underdogs finished the season with a 10-6 record against the spread in week 17, bringing their season mark to 141-107 (57 percent) with six pushes.
Home dogs were especially successful, going 5-2 (including four straight up wins) to close the season at 53-36 (60 percent) with two pushes. That probably won't be relevant in the playoffs as we're unlikely to see any home teams installed as underdogs.
Another stat that can be discarded is that home and road teams finished at .500, going 125-125-6 during the regular season. Over and unders were nearly even, as overs (despite finishing 12-20 the past two weeks) closed with a narrow 127-125-3 edge. Note: There's one game missing as the Eagles-Texans game in week 4 didn't have a total.
College bowl betting trends
The college bowl season reached the halfway point following Monday's games as 14 games had been played in 14 days. There were then 14 games to be played Tuesday through Friday.
Through the first 14 games, underdogs had won eight straight up and were 9-4-1 against the spread.
The over/unders were an even seven apiece.
For those who follow the opening bowl line moves posted from the Stardust lottery of Dec. 9, the early bettors were hitting at a 75 percent clip through Monday's bowl games, going 6-2 on sides and 3-1 on totals.
Miami is just too good By DAVE TULEY
The college football season comes to a conclusion Friday night with the Fiesta Bowl/BCS Championship Game between the No. 1-ranked Miami-Fla. Hurricanes and No. 2 Ohio St. Buckeyes.
Miami opened as a 10 1/2-point favorite and was steadily bet up to a 13-point choice. As of noon Wednesday, the line was bouncing back and forth between 12 1/2 and 13. The betting public, made up mostly of tourists in Las Vegas this week for the New Year's festivities, is on the Hurricanes' side, while the professional bettors keep taking the points with the Buckeyes when the game gets bet back up to 13. No book has had to move the line to 13 1/2 to action back on the 'Canes, so it looks like 13 will be the closing number by game time Friday.
I love betting underdogs, and usually don't like being on the side of the public, but I have to back Miami in this game. The Hurricanes just have too much talent; their second string would be pretty close to undefeated.
Both teams have allowed inferior teams to stick around, but Miami has shown the ability to still turn those games into routs. This has been Miami's goal all season, so while the 'Canes have been guilty all season of looking past teams, that won't happen here.
They are additionally motivated by the fact that neither QB Ken Dorsey nor RB Willis McGahee won the Heisman Trophy, plus they've been hearing all week how Maurice Clarett gives the Buckeyes a chance because Miami has been vulnerable against running teams this season. I'd be surprised if he surpasses 100 yards, and I'll be looking for proposition bets on over/under his number of yards or Clarett vs. McGahee.
Of the first 23 bowl games played this year, 13 have been decided by 14 or more points. You often see in bowl games (and in national title games) that the better team gets a lead and then keeps rolling to a big victory.
As exciting as it would be for Ohio St. to pull the upset, I have to go with the chalk.
PLAY: Miami (-12 1/2) for 1 unit.
Handicapping champions crowned
While the NCAA national championship will be decided Friday night, the professional handicapping championships were decided last weekend in Las Vegas.
This year's top winner was "I Walk a Beat," who won $168,600 in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest. The Hilton had a record 281 entrants at $1,500 apiece this year, with the winner taking home 40 percent.
"I Walk a Beat" went 4-1 with his final plays last weekend (SuperContest players pick five NFL sides per week) to finish with a record of 56-29 (65.9 percent winners). He came within a game of earning a $10,000 bonus for hitting 67 percent. His lone loser last weekend was the Falcons (-2 1/2), who squandered a 16-10 fourth-quarter lead and lost 24-16 to the Browns.
"Jersey Red" also went 4-1 to finish only a half-game back at 55-29-1 and claim the second prize of $67,440. "Little Awful Andy," the alias of professional handicapper Andy Iskoe, finished third at 54-31 and receives $33,720, while "Specialists," a group of five men who put up $300 apiece, closed strongly to finish fourth at 53-31-1 and will split earnings of $21,075. Fifth through 10th pays $14,752 and 11th through 20th pays $4,215.
This year, locals casino giant Station Casinos entered the high-end tournament fray with a $1,000 buy-in that attracted 129 entries. R.G. Sports #II went 4-1 last weekend to claim the inaugural event's first-place prize of $64,500 (50 percent of the prize pool) with a record of 53-30-2. Robert Burns and Roland Phillip tied for second at 52-33 and split second- and third-place money for $9,675 apiece. Phillip would have claimed sole possession of second place if the 49ers had held their lead Monday night versus the Rams. Burns was on the Rams. Three contestants tied for fourth and receive $3,010 apiece.
Stations spreads the wealth
While the above competitors were playing for themselves, a season-long media contest at the Station Casinos was held for charity with $1,000 being donated in the name of the media member picking the most straight-up winners in the NFL each week, and $8,000 more being distributed to charity at the end of the season.
Craig Williams of KOMP radio finished with a record of 160-91 to win $3,000 for Ronald McDonald House. David Stratton of GamingToday was second at 155-96 to win $1,000 for the Nevada Chinese Academy, and Richard Eng of the Las Vegas Review-Journal was third at 154-97 to win $500 for Lied Animal Shelter. Eng, also a DRF columnist, went 12-2 the final week (losing the tiebreaker for the $1,000 weekly prize) but vaulted past four people to claim third.
Stations also allotted prize money for those picking the most losers. I finished with the third-most losers and $500 will go to the Sun Camp Fund. Tony Bonnici of Lotus Broadcasting had the most losers and won $2,000 for the Ronald McDonald House and Douglas Marsh of KOMP radio was second to last and also won $1,000 for Ronald McDonald House, which was the biggest winner in the contest with a total of $10,000 of the $25,000 winnings during the contest going to that charity.
Cannery moves up opening day
The Cannery, the Las Vegas valley's newest casino, had its unveiling moved up a day and was to open its doors at 10 p.m. Thursday.
The Cannery, located just west of Interstate 15 on Craig and Lossee roads, has a 1940's industrial theme, complete with smokestack out front, and will market to the booming locals population in North Las Vegas. As such, a huge emphasis will be on the slot floor, which will feature 1,278 machines.
The sports book will gets its odds from The Rampart in Summerlin. There is no race book.
torontopaul
Comment