Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2010, 12:39 AM

Dayton picked to fly home as NIT champions

At this point in time, not sure a college hoops team has a better nickname than the University of Dayton. The Flyers are flying by opposing teams in their four games in the NIT. For this reason, they are favored to be the best of the field when they take on North Carolina in Madison Square Garden for the title.

Dayton (24-12, 17-15 ATS) is a difficult opponent on many levels, they press on defense the entire game to force physical turnovers while anticipating the mental aspect of their performance will also cause teams to falter. Coach Brian Gregory has a veteran cast that he substitutes liberally, as much as 50 times a game. Every player has been taught to get the ball and go on any rebound or made basketball by the opposition and Dayton players fly down the court looking for easy buckets and slam opportunities. It’s not hard to figure why they are 11-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.

So how did Flyers lose a dozen games? The answer was in the semifinal win over Mississippi. Dayton held a few double digit leads; however their frantic style led to Rebels runs, as they took wild off-balance shots or just threw the ball away playing out of control. A patient offensive team can breakdown individual defenders since Dayton players seem almost bored having to guard a player more than 20 seconds. This would explain 4-13 ATS record away from home when they commit 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.

North Carolina (20-16, 13-20 ATS) was hoping to be playing in a different championship, but this one will do after the kind of year the Tar Heels have had. The story all year for Roy Williams’ team has been turnovers and no question point guard play has been part of the issue. Larry Drew has taken heated criticism and much deservedly so, yet upon closer inspection, he’s not the only player to blame.

Drew could do a better job in judgment terms, sometimes throwing errant passes or delivering the ball almost carelessly at his teammates feet, however enough of those in Carolina blue do mediocre work in using their bodies to receive passes, letting defenders work a side to slap the ball away or start into a move without catching the rock first. The last two examples occurred at least a half a dozen times in overtime win over Rhode Island, which was better than a third of the Tar Heels 17 miscues. It’s no wonder North Carolina is 3-10 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points game this season.

Dayton is a three-point favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 136.5. The Flyers pressure defense would appear to be a conundrum for North Carolina the way they handle the ball so loosely and the Flyers have sped to eight non-A-10 covers in a row. Dayton’s previous contest fell below stated total and they are 19-5 OVER after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons.

North Carolina doesn’t act all that thrilled about being in New York for this game, at least from the quote from coach Williams – “We put ourselves in this position because we didn't play as well as we needed to play, but then we accepted that and we tried to do the best we possibly could."

Though the season has not been up to typical Tar Heels standards, you cannot ignore the pedigree and they are 8-1 ATS in a postseason tournament games over the last two years and 11-3 ATS after covering three of their last four against the spread. UNC is 15-4 UNDER playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

The NIT championship has a 7:00 Eastern start time, with Dayton going after third title (1962-68) and North Carolina its first since 1971.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2010, 12:45 AM

NIT Finals, UNC-Dayton

A year ago, Roy Williams’ UNC Tar Heels were getting ready to win a national championship. On Thursday night, they’ll be gunning for another title, albeit one of the second-string variety.

Dayton and UNC had expectations of going to the NCAA Tournament, but those hopes didn’t materialize. Instead, both schools settled for NIT bids that have proved to be a nice springboard into next season.

The Flyers and Tar Heels square off Thursday night at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this game as a pick ‘em, but most books had Dayton (24-12 straight up, 17-15-1 against the spread) listed as a three-point favorite as of Wednesday night. The total was 136 ½ at most spots, while UNC was plus-135 on the money line (risk $100 to win $130).

North Carolina (20-16 SU, 13-21 ATS) advanced to the NIT finals with Wednesday’s 68-67 win over Rhode Island in overtime. The Tar Heels won outright as one-point underdogs, while the 135 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 152 ½-point total despite the extra session.

Senior power forward Deon Thompson recorded his second straight double-double, scoring 16 points and pulling down 13 rebounds against the Rams. William Graves added 14 points and seven boards, while Tyler Zeller came off the bench to produced 12 points, four rebounds and a pair of blocked shots in just 20 minutes of playing time.

Brian Gregory’s team came up short in its quest for a third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament, but the Flyers have been making up for it in the NIT. They have gone on the road and won – somewhat comfortably – at Cincinnati and at Illinois.

In the semifinals, Dayton sent Ole Miss home with a 68-63 win as a one-point favorite. The 131 combined points settled ‘under’ the 142-point tally.

Chris Johnson was the catalyst against the Rebels, tallying 22 points, 10 rebounds and four steals. Chris Wright struggled to a 1-for-10 effort from the field, but his floor game was exemplary. Wright finished with nine points, 11 boards, five assists, three blocked shots, two steals and only one turnover.

Dayton’s defense was instrumental against Ole Miss. The Flyers, who have now covered the number in four consecutive contests, held the Rebels to a 34-percent shooting night, forcing the combination of Terrico White (6-17) and Chris Warren (5-14) to shoot a combined 11-of-31 from the field.

Dayton is 8-5 ATS in 13 previous games as a single-digit favorite. Meanwhile, North Carolina has won outright in three straight games as an underdog. However, for the season, the Tar Heels are an abysmal 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS as ‘dogs.

The ‘under’ is on an incredible 20-7 run for UNC in its last 27 games. The Tar Heels have only had totals in the 130s three times this year, with the ‘over’ actually cashing at a 2-1 clip in those three situations.

The ‘under’ is 17-14 overall for Dayton, but the ‘over’ is 5-2 in their last seven outings.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Kentucky’s Daniel Orton is testing the NBA Draft waters but won’t hire an agent, leaving open the possibility of returning to UK for his sophomore season. Orton had a hard time getting extended minutes in 2009-2010, playing behind DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.

--Austin Rivers, the son of Doc who is a high-school phenom in the Orlando area, verbally committed to Florida more than a year ago as part of the 2011 class. For the last several months, there has been wide speculation that Duke is very much in the mix for Rivers’ services. And now, a recent Orlando Sentinel report indicates that North Carolina is also heavily courting Rivers. Of course, verbal commitments like Rivers can change their mind at any point.

--Mississippi St. center Renardo Sidney, who was ineligible throughout his freshman campaign, saw his appeal to the NCAA denied. The NCAA recently ruled that Sidney must also sit out the first nine games of the 2010-2011 season.

--LSU head coach Trent Johnson has suspended Bo Spencer from the team indefinitely. Johnson said the suspension was due to a “lack of fulfillment in responsibility to his academics.” If Spencer gets back in Johnson good graces and is allowed to return to the team, he will be the squad’s only senior in 2010-2011. Spencer averaged 14.5 points per game this past season.

**Spark** · 04-01-2010, 05:42 PM

Good Luck bum

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2010, 05:50 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

03/31/10 18-7-1 72.00% +4740 Detail

Thursday, April 1Game Score Status Pick Amount

Orlando - 8:00 PM ET Orlando -2.5 500
Dallas - Under 197.5 500

Portland - 10:30 PM ET Portland +5 500
Denver - Over 199 500

----------------------------------------------------------

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
03/31/10 8-6-0 57.14% +485 Detail
03/30/10 9-9-0 50.00% +620 Detail
03/29/10 6-3-1 66.67% +1565 Detail

Thursday, April 1Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida - 7:00 PM ET Florida +214 500
Boston - Over 5 500

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo -102 500
Toronto - Under 5.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders +117 500
NY Islanders - Over 5.5 500

Atlanta - 7:00 PM ET Atlanta +232 500 ( NHL DOG )
Washington - Over 6.5 500

Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Carolina +165 500 ( NHL DOG )
Ottawa - Under 5.5 500

Columbus - 7:30 PM ET Columbus +254 500 ( NHL BIG DOG )
Detroit - Over 5.5 500 ( NHL TOTAL )

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET Nashville -125 500
Nashville - Over 5.5 500

Vancouver - 10:30 PM ET Los Angeles -103 500
Los Angeles - Under 5.5 500

---------------------------------------------------------

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

03/31/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Thursday, April 1Game Score Status Pick Amount

North Carolina - 7:00 PM ET North Carolina +3 500
Dayton - Over 139 500

Good Luck Gang !

**Chado1** · 04-01-2010, 06:52 PM

GL tonight BUM!!!

**bryce** · 04-01-2010, 06:54 PM

Good luck Stardust

**BOOKBEATER** · 04-01-2010, 07:07 PM

knock em down tonight stardust

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2010, 07:20 PM

Yep hope so...caught a big one last night in the NHL as the 2 dogs came thru for a nice +299......College hoops went 2 -0 and NBA did not so bad so hoping for some good things again......good luck to all of you...

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2010, 07:22 PM

Trend Report - Thursday

Magic at Mavericks – The Magic are 8-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since March 05, 2005 on the road after a home win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Magic are 7-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since April 13, 2006 on the road when facing a non-conference team they lost to by double digits in their first match-up of the season. The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since March 17, 2009 at home when facing a non-conference team they beat on the road in their first match-up of the season. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since November 16, 2004 at home when they stole the ball from their opponent at least ten times in each of their last two games.

Trail Blazers at Nuggets – The Trail Blazers are 8-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since April 16, 2008 on the road with at most one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Trail Blazers are 0-7 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since April 08, 2002 as a road dog with at most one day of rest after a home win in which they had at least 12 steals. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since January 23, 2001 at home after a road loss against the Mavericks. The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since March 15, 2010 after a game in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2010, 07:22 PM

Thursday's Tips

The Thursday NBA card provides bettors with two nationally televised games that have major implications in the Western Conference playoff race. The Mavs try to stay hot at home against the equally hot Magic, while the Nuggets look to end their skid against the Blazers.

Magic (52-22 SU, 39-33-2 ATS) at Mavericks (50-25 SU, 32-42-1 ATS)

Orlando begins a two-game swing through Texas with revenge on its minds against Dallas. The Magic has been off since Sunday's 103-97 victory over the Nuggets, improving to 16-4 SU since the All-Star Break. The Mavs are also fresh off a win against Denver, just their second cover in the last eight at home.

It's been documented all season long that Dallas has struggled at home, going 5-26-1 ATS since November 20. But the Mavs have managed covers in each of their last two at American Airlines Center with wins over the Clippers and Nuggets. The 'under' has become profitable for Rick Carlisle's squad of late, hitting in four of the last five games.

The Magic has turned into road warriors since the break, winning six of eight away from Amway Arena. The last time Orlando hit the highway, Stan Van Gundy's team lost at the buzzer to Atlanta, 86-84 as one-point 'dogs. Orlando's defense continues to step up by limiting 13 of its past 14 opponents to below 100 points.

Dallas needs every game down the stretch if it wants to clinch the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs. The Mavs are already in the postseason, while sitting 4 ½ games ahead of the Spurs in the Southwest Division with seven games remaining. However, the gap from second to fifth is just 1 ½ games separating the Mavs, Jazz, Suns, and Nuggets.

Orlando fell at home to Dallas on February 19 with a 95-85 setback as seven-point 'chalk.' The Magic was limited to just 38 points in the second half after scoring 33 points in the opening quarter. The key numbers which ruined Orlando were the 4-25 (16%) shooting from beyond the arc and the 12 attempted free throws.

Blazers (46-29 SU, 41-32-2 ATS) at Nuggets (48-27 SU, 31-38-6 ATS)

These two Northwest Division rivals meet for the final time in the regular season as Denver looks to clinch the season series against Portland. The Nuggets are in a free-fall with losses in five of their last six games while the Blazers are hitting their stride by winning nine of ten.

On March 19, the Nuggets were 47-22 and held a four-game advantage over the Jazz in the division. In less than two weeks, Denver has dropped from the second seed in the West to second place in its own division, while the Jazz have leap-frogged the Nuggets. Denver will try to rebound after its offense has been downright offensive by being held to below 100 points in seven of the last eight contests. The Nuggets are 0-8-1 ATS the previous nine games with only three straight-up wins over the Wizards, Hornets, and Raptors.

For the exception of battling the Clippers on Saturday, the Nuggets face all opponents above .500 in the final five games of the season (Thunder, Lakers, Spurs, Grizzlies, and Suns). The Nuggets were hoping to avoid the Lakers until the Western Conference Finals, but there is a shot they could see the Champs in the second round (assuming they advance past the first round).

The Blazers obviously struggled when Brandon Roy was on the shelf for a month, but Portland has rebounded nicely with a 14-5 SU mark the last 19 games. The road has been kind to Nate McMillan's club, covering eight of the previous 12 away from the Rose Garden including victories at Oklahoma City, New Orleans, and Memphis.

The last SU/ATS road loss by the Blazers came at the Pepsi Center on March 3 in a 118-106 setback. Denver cruised to a cover as seven-point 'chalk,' while the 118 points allowed by Portland was tied for the most given up this season (Utah scored 118 on February 3). The Blazers and Nuggets split a pair of games at the Rose Garden earlier this season, while Denver has claimed three straight meetings at home in this series.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- Charlotte is creeping closer to its first-ever playoff berth, this coming off a 3-9 start to the season. Obviously the acquisition of Stephen Jackson the second week of the season energized this franchise, but Captain Jack wanted to go to an established playoff team at the time. What has Jackson done since coming to Charlotte? Only averaging a career-high 20.8 ppg, while leading the Bobcats to a 42-31 ATS mark.

-- It's amazing how many people thought the Heat could possibly miss the playoffs when the month of February ended. Miami was 29-31 and sitting in the ninth spot, but the Heat has won 12 of 15 to pull into the sixth position. Dwyane Wade and the Heat own the easiest schedule the rest of the way, playing all teams out of playoff contention. It hasn't been a bad investment to back the Heat as Miami is 9-4-1 ATS the last 14 games.

-- The Raptors were involved in a nosedive earlier this month, but Toronto is trying to claim the final playoff spot in the East. The Raps are 6-1 ATS the previous seven games, including four straight covers on the road. Four of Toronto's final eight contests come against teams playing out the string, but the crucial showdown happens on April 11 at home versus Chicago. The Raptors own the season series, but seeing Toronto's track record this season, that could be the game that will determine who will lose to Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2010, 07:24 PM

Injury Update

There are NBA pundits that will claim the Celtics and Lakers can still turn it on when they want, however, PT Barnum said it best, "there is a sucker born every minute."
There is not one dominate team in the league this year; this includes everyone in the West and the two best in the East, Cleveland and Orlando. The Association Championship has never been more wide open.

The Prez hits the backboards for his daily review of the NBA.

BOSTON

Kendrick Perkins returned to active duty from a sore knee and had six points, six boards and three blocks in the Celtics Wednesday night loss to the Thunder.

Paul Pierce played through a shoulder injury and hit 5-of-10 shots for 15 points, six boards, six assists, two steals, a block.

When Boston secures their slot in the East, Pierce and the rest of the Celtic starters will see their minutes drastically cut and possible DNP's.

The Celtics are simply too old to play the defense that won them a championship two seasons ago. They lost despite hitting 60 percent from the floor on Wednesday night..

After tonight's loss to one of the West's playoff bound teams, Boston is now a middling 20-18 at home against the spread. Not only are the Celtics giving up far too many layups this season, the Thunder capitalized on nine Boston turnovers to score 10 of their 30 points in the first quarter.

CHARLOTTE

Tyrus Thomas (ankle) dressed for Wednesday's game against the Sixers but did not play.

Watch the Sixers closely moving forward. It's still unclear whether the Philly coaching staff will shut down Andre Iguodala and his plantar fasciitis. Iggy played through the injury on Wednesday and finished with 14 points, six rebounds and four assists in 33 minutes of action. Before the game, coach Eddie Jordan said that Iguodala's minutes would have to be monitored. However, Iguodala played his usual 18 minutes in the first half and after the Sixers became lame ducks in Charlotte he found the end of the bench.

CLEVELAND

As expected, with very little to play for, the Cavs were flat and sorely missed energetic forward Anderson Varejao, who didn't dress for his second straight game because of a sore hamstring.

With Wednesday's no-cover against the Bucks the Cavs went 13-2 SU and 9-6 ATS in March.

DALLAS

Brendan Haywood left Wednesday night's game in Memphis with an undisclosed injury and didn't return. Haywood has been dealing with a finger injury, which he may have aggravated. Consider the center day-to-day. The Mavs have a big game against Orlando tonight and without a back-up center one would logically expect the Magic, and Dwight "Superman" Howard to go right at Eric Dampier.

Caron Butler (flu) and J.J. Barea (knee) are both probable for tonight's game against the Magic. Despite missing the morning shoot-around with a stomach ailment, Butler played 27 minutes on Wednesday night, helping the Mavs beat the Grizzlies in overtime. Butler shot just 4 of 10 from the field to score 11 points and doubled up with 13 boards. Barea has missed two games with the injury and was upgraded to probable for Thursday's game against Orlando after the Mavs won in Memphis on Wednesday.

DETROIT

Ben Gordon had just nine points in 23 minutes even though Richard Hamilton (ankle) was inactive on Wednesday. Gordon has been a bust this year and can't seem to break out of his season-long funk, even when Hamilton is out of action.

Rodney Stuckey drew the start at shooting guard making his first start since March 5. Stuckey finished with 18 points, five assists and three steals. Stuckey only started because Hamilton (ankle) didn't dress, and played 32 minutes of productive ball, despite the Pistons loss.

Ben Wallace (knees) returned to action and registered four points, six rebounds, two blocks and a steal. It was a surprise to see Wallace play again this year. Just as interesting will be how his knees respond.

Jason Maxiell (back) left tonight's game against the Heat and didn't return. He is considered day-to-day.

GOLDEN STATE

Ronny Turiaf missed Wednesday's game with the flu. There is a good chance it is the same bug that has lingered in the Warriors locker room causing Monta Ellis to miss the team's last two contests.

Chris Hunter was struck by friendly fire in Wednesday night's game in Utah. Hunter was hit in the nose with an elbow from teammate Corey Maggette in the first quarter of action and didn't return to the game.

HOUSTON

Kevin Martin missed his third straight game on Wednesday against the Spurs due to his shoulder injury. His return is in question, reports Rockets.com. He could return on Friday against the Celtics but is currently considered day to day.

Center David Andersen has now missed seven straight games with his back injury. He is considered day to day. The Rockets have a very shot bench with due to a multitude of injuries.

LA CLIPPERS

After Wednesday's lopsided loss to Toronto the Clippers are 0-11 SU since the first of the year in the second tilt of back-to-backs

LA LAKERS

Sasha Vujacic has been benched by the Lakers for a run-in with assistant coach Brian Shaw. Vujacic referred to the Lakers as 'they' instead of 'we' in interviews and Phil Jackson says he'll have to atone for his mistakes before playing again.

Jackson told the NBA Network that Luke Walton (back) might return Sunday when the Lakers host the Spurs, but added that Andrew Bynum (Achilles' strain) won't return for at least another week.

MIAMI

Starting in place of Jermaine O'Neal (knee), Joel Anthony had three points, five rebounds and two blocks on Wednesday night. Anthony is an elite shot blocker, but his scoring upside is very limited.

The Heat still found a way to win against a undermanned Pistons team but without O'Neal's scoring in the paint the Heat will struggle when the postseason schedule rolls around.

It's rare that Miami is a 6.5 point road favorite this season. Tonight's win makes the Heat 2-1 ATS in this situation, 5-2 as a road favorite this season.

MILWAUKEE

There is a battle for minutes at the point guard spot for the Bucks. Brandon Jennings played just 19 minutes, hitting 2-of-9 shots for five points and two steals, but was benched in favor of Luke Ridnour (11 points, 11 assists). It will be interesting to see what transpires from Scott Skiles does moving forward.

Since the end of January the Bucks are 8-1 ATS in the second tilt of a back-to-back and they have failed to cover as an underdog just once, on February 2nd in Orlando. Milwaukee closed the month with two road covers as double digit dogs; both in the second leg of back to backs, the first at altitude, in Denver, straight up, while getting 10 points in the contest and the second last night in Cleveland.

The oddsmakers opened the total for Wednesday's game in Cleveland at 189 and the Bucks are 20-7 ATS when the opening number is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last two seasons, winning outright in this situation by an average margin of four points.

The Bucks are 15-3 this season in the second game of back-to-backs, 8-1 ATS after a home win of 10 points or more and 13-3 ATS following a game they scored 105 points or more.

MINNESOTA

The Timberwolves played Wednesday against the Kings without forward Damien Wilkins, who missed the game because of an upper respiratory illness. The Wolves shooting guard is day to day.

NEW JERSEY

Chris Douglas-Roberts missed Wednesday's game against the Suns with back spasms.

Devin Harris is now dealing with a bad back after Wednesday's game against the Suns. Harris shot only 2 for 10 and was seen leaving the locker room for the second half with his back wrapped. He said he fell on a photographer's knee in a recent game. Consider the Nets point guard day-to-day with a probable status for Saturday's contest against New Orleans.

NEW YORK

Wilson Chandler has been shut down for the remainder of the season with a left groin injury.

PHOENIX

Backers of the Suns and Steve Nash were concerned that his minutes might be limited in back-to-back situations considering his age and his bad back. However, the MVP guard had 24 points, 14 rebounds and found the bottom of the net with three treys in Wednesday's win over the Nets. On more than one occasion since the All Star break Nash has told the media that after every game that his back is killing him.

PHILADELPHIA

Rodney Carney did not play on Wednesday because of an injured big right toe. He is considered day to day. The Sixers' bench is currently shorthanded with Willie Green as the only healthy reserve guard. Green had 12 points, five rebounds and five assists in Wednesday's loss to the Bobcats

SACRAMENTO

Spencer Hawes didn't dress for Wednesday's game in Minnesota with a left hamstring contusion. The Kings center returned from a back injury to play on Tuesday, but suffered a hamstring injury during that game.

Omri Casspi was expected to return from an illness on Wednesday against the Wolves but didn't dress via coach's decision. Casspi remains day to day.

Francisco Garcia missed his third straight game to a wrist injury and is considered day to day.

Sean May has missed three straight games with a knee injury and could not play Wednesday at Minnesota. May has a bruised right knee and is one of several Kings listed as day to day.

SAN ANTONIO

Manu Ginobilli (back) and Roger Mason Jr (finger). both played Wednesday against the Rockets.

TORONTO

Hedo Turkoglu played just 17 minutes off the bench on Wednesday, finishing with six points, three boards and six assists. It was the second straight game that the Turk has come off the bench since being spotted out partying the same night he missed a game with the flu.

The Raptors have won 12 of their 24 home victories by 10 points or more. Before tonight they had been a home favorite of 10 points or more only once, against Detroit, a game the won by nine points.

UTAH

Jazz forward Andrei Kirilenko (strained left calf) didn't dress for Wednesday night's game against Golden State and will not travel to Los Angeles for Friday's contest against the Lakers. Kirilenko has missed eight of the past 10 games with calf problems.

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