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**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2010, 12:48 AM

Diamond Tips

How to Profit from Betting Baseball

Although baseball is often overlooked in terms of a sport that can build the bankroll, over the course of the season there is no question that you can bang out a profit betting the boys of the summer. The important thing is to look at betting baseball as a long-term investment, and throughout the grind of an entire season, baseball can be an efficient and manageable way to cash tickets.

It is important to recognize and respect the fact that baseball is a marathon of 162 games where anything can happen on a nightly basis. This means that even the best teams lose close to 40 percent of their games, allowing the handicapper to capitalize on underdogs more often than other sports.

Avoiding the considerable favorites is a crucial factor here, as the St. Louis Cardinals lost close to 10 units last season despite their great overall record, simply because they were such heavy favorites on a nightly basis. Be careful betting teams posted at -165 or more, and look for value in underdogs.

Riding the wave of a hot or cold streak is also an essential rule to abide by. Sometimes it can be tempting to clash with a streak and go against the grain thinking the team is “due” to break the trend. An example is the Colorado Rockies winning streak at the end of the 2007 season, as they won 21 of 22 games, and cashed in as underdogs many of those nights riding the momentum.

Betting baseball totals is another way to produce winnings throughout the summer. Totals usually come at a reduced price, meaning that if someone finds a comfort zone playing over/unders, winning -120 or better can go a long way to handicapping success. Factors to take into account when wagering on totals are team defence, bullpen ERA, and the starting pitchers BB/K ratio, as well as team batting average.

Maybe one of the most overrated factors when handicapping baseball is the value that is placed on starting pitching. While the value of the starting rotation can dictate the outcome of a game, it is one of many factors that needs to be considered when handicapping baseball. Much of the public misconstrues the importance of starting pitching, and oddsmakers know this when setting the line.

With teams changing their rotations constantly and often going with as many as six interchangeable starters, it is better to draw statistics from the teams recent games than overvalue the starting slinger. In 2008/2009 the Houston Astros had the second best team ERA in the National League but managed to finish only two games over .500 and failed to make the post-season.

When analyzing a starting pitcher, it is better to take into consideration the dynamics of a lefty/righty match-up, and how they perform in certain situations. Overall, the starting pitcher and the bullpen make up half of the outcome of a game, and other stats are important to consider when breaking down match-ups.

With 2430 games played per season, there is no shortage of games on the board to choose from, and it is best to not dive in too hard at the start of the season. Baseball gamblers get a feel for what angle they like to take on a nightly basis, and attempt to gain an edge on the betting line. There is no doubt that one can earn a formidable profit throughout the course of an entire baseball campaign, or at least finance a bankroll for football season.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2010, 05:33 PM

Monday, March 29Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Toronto +9 500
Charlotte - Over 196 500

San Antonio - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey +8 500
New Jersey - Under 191 500

L.A. Lakers - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans +6 500
New Orleans - Over 201 500

Denver - 8:30 PM ET Denver +5 500
Dallas - Over 209.5 500

New York - 9:00 PM ET Utah -11 500
Utah - Under 217 500

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Monday, March 29Game Score Status Pick Amount

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo +129 500
Boston - Over 5 500

Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Carolina +115 500 ( NHL POD )
Atlanta - Over 6 500

Nashville - 7:30 PM ET Nashville -127 500
Florida - Under 5.5 500

Los Angeles - 9:00 PM ET Los Angeles -111 500
Minnesota - Under 5.5 500

Dallas - 10:00 PM ET Anaheim -132 500
Anaheim - Over 5.5 500

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Monday, March 29Game Score Status Pick Amount

Saint Louis - 7:00 PM ET VCU -9 500
VCU - Over 128.5 500

Good Luck Gang !

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2010, 06:09 PM

Monday Means all Systems Go in NBA

The big game of the evening features Denver at Dallas, with both teams trying to hold off pursuers in division play, while looking to earn second slot in the West behind the Lakers. One of these clubs is in a better system along with three other matchups that have top notch super situations to consider on the last Monday of March. Take a gander of the wagering possibilities tonight in professional hoops. Sides and totals from Sportsbook.com.

Toronto (+8, 195.5) at Charlotte

The Bobcats have taken advantage of a break in the schedule, winning and covering three games in a row. With Toronto having lost three straight (the last two by four total points) and nine of last 12, one might expect Charlotte’s good fortune to continue, yet underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a contest involving two average teams (+/- three points per game differential) after 42 or more games, after two straight losses by six points or less are 35-12 ATS.

L. A. Lakers (-6, 201.5) at New Orleans

Los Angeles was pathetic offensively in loss to Oklahoma City, scoring 75 points on 39.2 percent shooting Friday night. The Lakers immediately came right back, converting on 57.5 percent of shot attempts at Houston in 109-101 victory the next night. When road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points play after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points in the second half of the season, they are 37-10 ATS the last three seasons.

Denver (+5.5, 211) at Dallas NBA-TV 8:30E

In this important battle for second place in the Western Conference, neither Denver nor Dallas is playing their best basketball. The Nuggets have lost four of five and have not covered a spread in eight games, while the Mavs are 3-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in previous eight outings. The Mavericks appear to still have the edge since home favorites are 40-17 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread, in a game involving two teams with 60% to 75% win percentage.

New York (+11, 213.5) at Utah

The Knicks haven’t played Utah since way back on Nov. 9, losing at home 95-93 as 5.5-point home underdogs. New York opened their five game west trip by being thumped by Phoenix 132-96 two days ago. When these circumstances come together, look towards the total, as revenging teams off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, with the total at 210 or higher, are 55-24 UNDER the last 14 years.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2010, 06:11 PM

CBI Finals Commence

You have to tip your hat to this tournament; at least they have an interesting twist to the festivities with the finals a NBA-playoff like best two of three. The finalists for this event are St. Louis (23-11, 17-11-1 ATS) and Virginia Commonwealth (25-9, 17-14-1 ATS), who opens at their own floor at Siegel Center.

The Rams have a decided edge playing at home, where they are 17-1 (10-6 ATS) this season, which includes 10-game winning streak. VCU prefers up-tempo pace, using a full-court trapping defense and if that doesn’t frustrate the opposition, having center Larry Sanders as the last line of defense certainly will. Like most teams, Virginia Commonwealth also shoots the ball better in more familiar surroundings, knocking down 47.9 percent from the field and 39.4 percent from behind the three-point line which adds up to 79.9 points per contest.

The Rams last two games in this tournament have been high scoring affairs at home and they are 8-2 ATS after two or more consecutive Over’s this season.

St. Louis win total is the highest in 15 seasons and they will shoot for the upset before returning home Wednesday. The Billikens are not especially effective on the offensive end, particularly in visiting uniforms. They average only 58.5 points per contest and shoot a desultory 40.5 percent from the field accounting for 5-8 and 6-7 ATS record. St. Louis depends on their sticky defense that only allows 59.7 points per contest. The Billikens have kept up the defensive effort in this tourney and is 9-1 ATS after allowing 65 points or less three straight games this season.

Sportsbook.com has Virginia Commonwealth as 9.5-point favorites with total of 129. Based on the total, St. Louis should have chance to cover as oddsmakers are suggesting a 69-60 final score, with the pace more to the Billikens liking and they are 10-0 ATS after three consecutive contests where both teams score 70 points or less. Nonetheless, Virginia Commonwealth will do what they can to make a more frantic encounter and are 12-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this year.

Game 1 of the finals is on HD Net at 7:00 Eastern, with St. Louis 7-0 UNDER having won four of their last five and VCU 8-1 UNDER at home after playing three consecutive games as favorite this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2010, 06:16 PM

NHL Division rivals seek superiority

The Boston Bruins have work to do if they want to join the Buffalo Sabres in the postseason, but they might feel pretty good if they are matched up with their Northeast Division rivals should they get there. Boston looks for its fourth win in five games against the division-leading Sabres on Monday night at TD Garden, the first of two remaining meetings in what could be a first-round playoff preview.

Buffalo (41-23-10, 41-33 SU) has a five-point lead and two games in hand on Ottawa, its closest pursuer in the Northeast, while the Bruins (34-28-12, 34-40 SU) are in fourth place in the division and only two points up on Atlanta for the eighth playoff spot.

Boston, however, has taken three of four from Lindy Ruff’s team - winning twice in Buffalo - behind Tuukka Rask, the NHL leader with a 2.11 goals-against average. Rask has a 1.72 GAA in four starts against the Sabres, all coming this season. His emergence has relegated reigning Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas to the role of high-profile backup, but the Bruins have still struggled to stay in playoff position due to inconsistent offensive play.

Their power play (ranked 17th in the league) went silent from March 11-25, going 0 for 22. Boston managed to go 4-4-0 in that stretch behind Rask’s strong play, but saw how good it can look when converting with the man advantage Saturday. The Bruins broke out of their slump in a big way, getting three power-play goals in a 5-0 victory over visiting Calgary as Thomas made his first start in six games.

“The big thing was our power play,” coach Claude Julien said. “We made better play selection, we moved the puck a lot better tape to tape, and when we had an opportunity to shoot, we shot the puck.

“We clarified some of the things that we weren’t doing well. … You’ve gotta hope that it keeps going like that.” The Bruins have won just once in last six games after surrendering two or less goals.

Buffalo was 3 for 46 with the man advantage during a 4-7-3 stretch from Feb. 3-March 16, but has started to win games as the power play has gotten better. The Sabres scored 25 goals in winning five of their last six, going 7 for 29 (24.1 percent) with the man advantage. Derek Roy had a hat trick in a 7-1 victory over Tampa Bay on Saturday, scoring two of Buffalo’s three power-play goals to help his team clinch its first playoff berth since 2007.

“To get in with the game we played was real good,” Ruff said. “I might even smile.” The Sabres are 5-2 following a win of late.

Patrick Lalime started Saturday, but Ryan Miller - second in the East in GAA behind Rask at 2.21 - should be back in net Monday. Miller has started three of the four games against Boston, going 1-0-2 with a 1.61 GAA. All of those starts came at HSBC Arena, and Miller has not been nearly as sharp recently at TD Garden. He was 1-2-0 with a 4.47 GAA on the Bruins’ home ice last season, getting pulled after giving up seven goals on 20 shots in a 7-4 loss Nov. 19, 2008. Buffalo however has won last five contests against teams with a losing record.

Sportsbook.com has Boston as -155 money line favorites with total of five, but the Bruins have been underwhelming on home ice with 3-12 record since Jan. 7 and have only two wins facing a team with a winning record in last 11 attempts. The NHL’s poorest scoring team is 20-8-4 UNDER at home.

With Boston’s home woes, Buffalo has an opportunity to improve on 4-10 road record since Jan. 19 and they are 7-3 as visitors if opponent has losing home record. The Sabres are 8-2-1 UNDER after lighting the lamp five or more times in previous contest.

This is Northeast Division tussle in on VERSUS at 7:00 Eastern, with the home team having taken seven of last 10.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2010, 06:19 PM

CBI Results

CBI Tournament

Date Matchup ATS Result
First Round
Mar. 16 Indiana State 54 at Saint Louis (-7.5) 63 Favorite-Under (119)
Mar. 16 VCU (-2.5) 79 at George Washington 73 Favorite-Over (142)
Mar. 17 Wisconsin-Green Bay (+7) 70 at Akron 66 Underdog-Over (134)
Mar. 17 Charleston (+3.5) 82 at Eastern Kentucky 79 Underdog-Over (145.5)
Mar. 17 Boston University (+7) 96 at Oregon State 78 Underdog-Over (122)
Mar. 17 Colorado State 60 at Morehead State (-8.5) 74 Favorite-Over (132)
Mar. 17 IUPUI (+3) 74 at Hofstra 60 Underdog-Under (144)
Mar. 17 Duquesne 51 at Princeton (-4.5) 65 Favorite-Under (121)
Date Matchup ATS Result
Quarterfinals
Mar. 22 College of Charleston 86 at VCU (-12.5) 93 Underdog-Over (153)
Mar. 22 Princeton (+6) 74 at IUPUI 68 Underdog-Over(118)
Mar. 22 Morehead State 89 at Boston University (-1.5) Favorite-Over (139)
Mar. 22 Wisconsin-Green Bay 62 at St. Louis (-7) 68 Underdog-Over (122)
Date Matchup ATS Result
Semifinals
Mar. 24 Boston University 75 at Virginia Commonwealth (-11) 88 Favorite-Over (150)
Mar. 24 Princeton 59 at St. Louis (-4.5) 69 Favorite-Over (106)
Date Matchup ATS Result
Championship (Best-of-Three)
Mar. 29 Virginia Commonwealth vs. St. Louis
Mar. 31 St. Louis vs. Virginia Commonwealth
Apr. 2 (*If Necessary) Virginia Commonwealth vs. St. Louis

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2010, 06:21 PM

Trend Report - Monday

Raptors at Bobcats – The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since January 16, 2008 at home after a win in which their DPA was positive. The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since February 06, 2009 at home when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they led at the half.

Lakers at Hornets – The Lakers are 0-6 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since February 27, 2009 on the road when they scored at least 25 more points in their previous game than in the game before. The Hornets are 0-9 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since April 13, 2009 after a game at home in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Hornets are 0-9 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since January 15, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

Knicks at Jazz – The Knicks are 10-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since February 07, 2005 versus the Jazz. The Knicks are 9-0 ATS (6.7 ppg) since April 06, 2000 with two or more days of rest after a double digit road loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Jazz are 7-0-1 ATS (6.1 ppg) since April 07, 1997 at home after a double digit road win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.

Nuggets at Mavericks – The Mavericks are 11-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since June 18, 2006 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they were out-rebounded by double-digits. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since May 29, 2003 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit road win in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less.

Spurs at Nets – The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since June 08, 2003 on the road versus the Nets. The Nets are 0-10 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since February 25, 2005 at home after a double digit loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

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