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**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2010, 01:25 AM

Sunday's Elite 8 Action

Sunday’s college basketball slate features two more regional finals on tap and both of the matchups are intriguing. Michigan State and Tennessee will open up the action in the Midwest Bracket from St. Louis in an expected grinder. The two schools have walked through similar paths this season, with the Spartans overcoming injuries and the Volunteers playing through suspensions. The late game happens in the South Bracket, when Duke squares off against Baylor from Houston in what should be considered a road contest for the Blue Devils.
If you handicap this pair of games based on coaching, then most would run to the counter and lay serious cash on Michigan State and Duke here. Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski have been in this game a lot longer than Bruce Pearl and Scott Drew, and the two legends have made their names in situations like this.

Elite Eight History
Year Matchup
Duke, Mike Krzyzewski
1986 Duke 71 Navy 50
1988 Duke 63 Temple 53
1989 Duke 85 Georgetown 77
1990 Duke 79 UConn 78 (OT)
1991 Duke 78 St. Johns 61
1992 Duke 104 Kentucky 103 (OT)
1994 Duke 69 Purdue 60
1998 Duke 84 Kentucky 86
1999 Duke 85 Temple 64
2001 Duke 79 USC 69
2004 Duke 66 Xavier 63

Michigan State, Tom Izzo
1999 Michigan State 73 Kentucky 66
2000 Michigan State 75 Iowa State 64
2001 Michigan State 69 Temple 62
2003 Michigan State 76 Texas 85
2005 Michigan State 94 Kentucky 88 (2 OT)
2009 Michigan State 64 Louisville 52

Looking at the above table, the two coaches are a combined 15-2 in Elite Eight matchups. Granted, Duke hasn’t been to the regional final since 2004 but when Coach K gets there he wins and six of the victories came by nine points or more. His lone loss was in 1998, a two-point decision (84-86) to Kentucky, who wound up cutting down the nets under head coach Tubby Smith.

Izzo has been nearly as automatic as Coach K in the regional finals and he was there last year too. In his previous six trips to the Elite Eight, the Spartans have gone 5-1 under Izzo with the lone loss happening in 2003 to a talented Texas squad led by point guard T.J. Ford.

Even though the pedigree edge sides with Duke and Michigan State, any handicapper will tell you that current form is just as important.

With that being said, let’s look at each matchup for Sunday.

Midwest Regional - No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 5 Michigan State

Tennessee (28-8 SU, 15-16 ATS) didn’t get much respect heading into the tournament and deservingly so. Bruce Pearl’s team was blasted by Kentucky (45-74) in the SEC Tournament semifinals, plus they were pitted in the first round against San Diego State. The Aztecs got a lot of love from the locals in Las Vegas after watching them win the Mountain West Conference over UNLV.

Despite those accolades, the Volunteers nipped San Diego State 62-59 before cruising past Ohio 83-68 in the second round. Not a lot of pundits expected Tennessee to compete with No. 2 Ohio State in the Sweet Sixteen, but Pearl and company earned a hard fought 76-73 win on Friday.

The Vols shot 47 percent from the field and dominated the Buckeyes on the boards (36-21) en route to their first Elite Eight appearance in school history. Wayne Chism posted 22 points and 11 rebounds and J.P. Prince added 14 points to go with a big block at the buzzer on Ohio State’s Evan Turner, who finished with 31 points. The outcome could’ve been bigger considering Tennessee’s defense held Ohio State to 43 percent from the field, but the Buckeyes countered with nine 3-pointers.

UT’s defense will have to step on Sunday when it meets its second straight Big 10 opponent, Michigan State (27-8 SU, 14-20 ATS). The Spartans rallied past Northern Iowa 59-52 in the Sweet Sixteen by outscoring the Panthers by 14 points (37-23) in the final 20 minutes. Michigan State’s defense was intense in the second half, holding UNI to just five field goals. Even more impressive, UNI had 10 points in the final 10 minutes, all coming from the free throw line.

The 23 points scored by the Spartans in the opening 20 minutes on Friday was a little bit of a surprise, considering they posted 42 and 48 first-half points in tournament victories over New Mexico State (70-67) and Maryland (85-83) respectively. However, UNI likes to slow down the tempo and MSU was playing its first game without leading scorer Kalin Lucas, who ruptured his Achilles’ tendon in the second round win last weekend.

His backup Korie Lucious (10 points) wasn’t sensational but he did the little things (6 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals) to help the Spartans hold off UNI. His backcourt mate Durrell Summers (19 points) kept the Panthers in check as well, with four big bombs from 3-point land.

Michigan State owns an all-time record of 4-2 over Tennessee but the two schools haven’t played since 1994. Pearl owns a 2-3 record versus Big 10 schools since taking over the head coaching duties in Knoxville. For what it’s worth, Tennessee has thrived playing on CBS this season. Including their 3-0 mark in the tournament, the Vols have defeated Kansas (76-68), Florida (61-60) and Kentucky (74-65) on the network this season. Also, UT has gone 3-0 on Sunday’s this season.

Oddsmakers opened the Volunteers as 1 ½-point favorites and the line moved to 2 quickly. The total has been hovering between 135 and 136. Betting the ‘under’ on Tennessee (19-9) and Michigan State (18-15) has been profitable for both schools.

The winner of this game will meet Butler in the Final Four.

Tip off for this contest is slated for 2:20 p.m. EDT.

South Regional - No. 1 Duke vs. No. 3 Baylor

Baylor (28-7 SU, 18-10 ATS) caught a nice draw in the South Regional and the school from Waco has taken advantage of it. The Bears stopped Sam Houston State (68-59) in a lackluster effort in the first round before holding off Old Dominion (76-68) two days later. While those wins were expected, not many could’ve predicted a 23-point (72-49) win over St. Mary’s in the Sweet Sixteen. The game wasn’t as close as the final outcome, as the Bears led by as many as 31over the Gaels and coasted from the start.

The backcourt of LaceDarius Dunn (23) and Tweety Carter (14) combined for 37 points, 21 of them coming from 3-point land. Baylor led 46-17 at halftime, largely due to a St. Mary’s squad that couldn’t buy a shot (35%) all night. The Bears won despite getting nothing out of their brusing forward Ekpe Udoh (eight points).

Baylor is more known for its up-tempo style that averaged 77.1 PPG this season but the attack has failed to eclipse that number in the tournament. Conversely, the defense only allowed 65.3 PPG prior to the tournament and two of the three opponents in the tourney were held under that number.

Duke (32-5 SU, 21-13 ATS) was ranked 25th nationally in scoring (77.4 PPG) but the offense was less than stellar in opening round wins over Arkansas-Pine Bluff (73-44) and California (68-53). Fortunately, the Blue Devils found their groove late in the Sweet 16 against Purdue en route to a 70-57 victory. Duke put up a 46-spot in the second half over the Boilermakers, which helped them cover as an eight-point favorite. Kyle Singler led all scorers with 24 points and Jon Scheyer added 18 points after a terrible start.

The only constant for the Blue Devils this season has been their defense, which has been even better lately. Eight of the last 10 opponents for Duke have been held to 61 or less and the ‘under’ has cashed in all of those contests. Only five schools have beaten Duke this season – Wisconsin (73), Georgia Tech (71), N.C. State (88), Georgetown (89), Maryland (79) – and all five scored 70-plus points. If you want to beat Duke, you better hit your shots and get to the free throw line.

Sportsbook.com has installed Duke as a four-point favorite, while the total is listed at 140. Gamblers expecting Baylor to cut down the nets in its backyard can take a shot at a plus-175 (Bet $100 to win $175) price on the money-line.

This contest is expected to tip at 5:05 p.m. EDT.

Duke or Baylor will meet Kentucky or West Virginia in the Final Four next Saturday from Indianapolis.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2010, 01:27 AM

Is Baylor REALLY this good?

The NCAA Tournament has enjoyed a number storylines this March, with lower seeds pulling off unpredictable upsets and destroying brackets from coast to coast. One story that isn’t getting enough press, but will explode if they win in Houston is the Baylor Bears.

It was just seven years ago Baylor was rocked with a scandal in the death of basketball player Patrick Dennehy. His teammate Carlton Dotson pleaded guilty to the homicide and coach Dave Bliss was believed to be in a cover-up, which also happened to dig up recruiting violations by Bliss, forcing him to resign. The Baylor basketball program was dead.

Scott Drew was told by almost everyone that the Baylor basketball job was a suicide mission for someone young with upward mobility. Drew took the job anyway and what he has accomplished in this short period of time is as good or better than any Cinderella story in March.

Baylor (28-7, 18-10 ATS) has as much physical ability as any team left in the tournament. LaceDarius Dunn is dominant scorer (witness the 23 points vs. St. Mary’s), Tweety Carter can scorch the nets and distribute dimes with regularity. Ekpe Udoh and Josh Lomers are big bodies around the rim, with Udoh a terrific specimen, just tapping into his potential. The Bears are versatile and have experience and are 12-2 ATS having won four of their last five games this season. One more thing, until 10 days ago, the last time Baylor won a NCAA tournament game was 1950. Gulp.

Standing in their way is one of the dominant programs in recent college basketball history (10 Final Four’s under Coach K), the Duke Blue Devils (32-5, 21-14-1 ATS). In what has been an unusual basketball season, even the Duke-haters have been surprisingly quiet. It’s not like the Duke has snuck up on anyone this year, being co-champions of the ACC, winning the conference tournament and elected as a top seed, yet all this has happened with very little clamor.

Maybe it’s because of the Blue Devils failures in the previous couple of tournaments or lack of superstar talent on the roster. Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith are the three best perimeter players in the country on the balance of the season. None of them carries much of a “wow” factor, yet each is coldly efficient. Even oddsmakers haven’t been able to beat Duke, since they are regularly shaded with additional baggage and they are 10-1 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

Where coach Mike Krzyzewski’s team has made the biggest strides is the frontline players add defense and rebounding, two qualities lacking of late. Opposing teams are scoring only 60.5 points per contest against Duke on 40 percent shooting. The combinations of Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers have stifled opposing offenses and the Blue Devils are 9-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last outing.

Duke is a four-point pick at Sportsbook.com and will be in unfriendly environment, with Houston crowd pro-Baylor. The Dukies are 7-3 ATS as neutral site favorites and 16-6 UNDER after five or more consecutive victories. Baylor will be able to feed off the energy from the crowd and are 9-1 ATS after two games as chalk. Their mission in 2-3 zone is to keep what appears to be a tired Jon Scheyer in shooting slump and control the boards. The Bears are 10-1 OVER after a win by 15 points or more this season.

The 1 vs. 3 Elite Eight conflicts show there is not much difference between the teams with 10-8 SU edge for the higher seed. Where separation occurs is when the top seed has won nine of 10 games before the tournament (Duke 12-1 SU), they are 7-2 SU and if the lower seed has inexperienced coach in the Big Dance, they are 2-7 SU.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2010, 01:28 AM

Something old and something new in Midwest Final

Michigan State is back in the Elite Eight, trying to make their sixth Final Four appearance in a dozen years. Tennessee on the other hand is making their debut as one of the eight finalists in contention for the national championship. Each has endured the most unlikely of circumstances to arrive at this point.

The Spartans (27-8, 14-20 ATS) are battered, bruised and one other factor, still playing. Durrell Summers seems to have taken it upon himself to be the leader with leading scorer Kalin Lucas out. Summers had 19 points in the win over Northern Iowa (26 vs. Maryland) and he and his teammates still believe they have ways to go. “It feels great to be back," forward Draymond Green said of being among the last eight teams. "We've still got bigger dreams."

Michigan State has been thru winning streaks, injuries, suspensions and benching, yet continues to press on. "That's kind of enjoyable, to find a way," coach Tom Izzo said. "It's somewhat more rewarding than the last two." Michigan State has covered 21 of their last 29 Sunday games.

Tennessee (28-8, 15-17-1 ATS) head coach Bruce Pearl knows his team and knows his math which led to upset of Ohio State. “I told our team, 'It's our team vs. their six,"' Pearl said. "We were a better 10 than their six." For Vols fans and backers, the Elite Eight is a better number than the Sweet 16.

Wayne Chism and Brian Williams used their size and bulk to dominate Ohio State in the paint, out-rebounding the Buckeyes 41-29 and scoring 50 of their 76 points in the lane area. Pearl has taken a collection of players that could have folded their tent and disappeared when their leading scorer Tyler Smith was suspended for the year and three other players were disciplined for varying lengths of time, instead he sold them on team and different leaders emerged, leading to Tennessee on 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) closing run. The Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven matchups with teams with winning records.

Tennessee is a two-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, with total of 135.5 and they are 5-1-1 ATS against the Big Ten of late. The Vols will have to continue to play great defense and be prepared for Spartans transition game. Rebounding will be huge factor for Tennessee, as Michigan State is 25-3 SU (11-16 ATS) when they grab more boards than the opponent. Look for Volunteers to again work the ball inside where Izzo’s team doesn’t have a great deal of height.

The Spartans will need a complete team effort once again. Summers and Raymar Morgan need to be the scoring leaders and receive plenty of moxie from Korie Lucious and Green, who comes off the bench. Michigan State is 7-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament tilts and 6-2-1 ATS as a neutral site underdog.

Concerning the total, Michigan State is 7-3-1 UNDER after a cover and Tennessee is 8-2 UNDER since Jan. 31 as a favorite.

Whatever the outcome, the winner will be the lowest seed in the Final Four since 2006 when 11th seeded George Mason waltzed into the surroundings.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2010, 12:00 PM

Sunday, March 28Game Score Status Pick Amount

Sacramento - 3:00 PM ET Cleveland -13.5 500
Cleveland - Under 197.5 500

Memphis - 3:00 PM ET Memphis +3.5 500 ( NBA DOG )
Milwaukee - Under 193.5 500

Indiana - 3:30 PM ET Indiana +8 500
Atlanta - Over 207.5 500

Chicago - 6:00 PM ET Chicago +2 500
Detroit - Under 198.5 500

Toronto - 6:00 PM ET Miami -6.5 500
Miami - Under 193 500

Denver - 6:00 PM ET Orlando -5.5 500 ( NBA POD )
Orlando - Over 208 500

Phoenix - 7:00 PM ET Phoenix -9 500
Minnesota -

Portland - 7:00 PM ET Portland +4.5 500
Oklahoma City -

San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET Boston -3.5 500 ( NBA POD )
Boston -

Golden State - 9:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -5 500
L.A. Clippers -

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2010, 12:09 PM

Sunday, March 28Game Score Status Pick Amount

Calgary - 3:00 PM ET Calgary +226 500 ( NHL DOG )

Washington - Under 6 500

Toronto - 5:00 PM ET Toronto +192 500
Pittsburgh - Under 5.5 500

Edmonton - 6:00 PM ET Edmonton +206 500
St. Louis - Over 5.5 500

New Jersey - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey -104 500
Philadelphia - Under 5.5 500

Columbus - 7:00 PM ET Columbus +268 500 [B]( NHL BIG DOG )
B]
Chicago - Over 5.5 500

Colorado - 8:00 PM ET San Jose -220 500
San Jose - Under 5.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2010, 12:12 PM

Yesterday's Parlay Failed as i went 3 - 1......Today's hopefully will not fail.......going with another one.

Sunday, March 28Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tennessee - 2:20 PM ET Michigan St +1.5 500
Michigan St - Under 136.5 500

Baylor - 5:05 PM ET Baylor +5 500
Duke - Under 139 500

**MarkLemke** · 03-28-2010, 12:23 PM

good luck sdb...

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2010, 03:17 PM

Good Luck to you also Lemke...and the rest of you.....

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2010, 03:39 PM

Sunday Tips

The final Sunday of March provides NBA bettors with ten games to wager on, including several key night tilts. Two non-conference games take center-stage with the Magic hosting the Nuggets, while the Spurs travel to Boston. Also, the Blazers look to avenge a home loss to the Thunder when the two teams hook up in Oklahoma City. We'll start things in South Florida with the suddenly-hot Heat entertaining the slumping Raptors.

Raptors (35-36 SU, 32-39 ATS) at Heat (39-34 SU, 37-35-1 ATS)

Miami is turning up the heat at just the right time with four consecutive wins as Toronto invades the American Airlines Arena (6:00 PM EST). The Heat pulled off a sweep of a three-game road trip with double-digit victories at New Jersey, Chicago, and Milwaukee. Miami will now try to even the season series with Toronto at two games apiece.

The Raptors are still sitting in the eighth position inside the Eastern Conference playoff race, but Toronto is 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS the last 11 games. Jay Triano's club dropped consecutive home games to the Jazz and the Nuggets, as Denver burned Toronto with a last-second jumper. The Raptors are riding a nice 'under' run, doing so in five straight games.

The Heat is protecting their home-court much better than they were earlier in the season by winning seven of nine. Miami is helping bettors cash as a home favorite with a 4-1-1 ATS run at the AAA, including three covers as 'chalk' of 6 ½ points or more. This contest is in an odd scheduling spot as the Heat plays six road games surrounding this matchup. Miami hits the road again on Wednesday for a three-game trip that begins in Detroit.

The home team is 3-0 SU/ATS in the season series as the Heat beat down the Raptors, 115-95 back on December 15. Toronto avenged that loss with a 111-103 home victory in late January, as the Raps were in the midst of a 7-1 SU run at the time. The 'over' has profited during the last two seasons between these teams, hitting in six straight meetings.

Nuggets (48-25 SU, 31-37-5 ATS) at Magic (51-22 SU, 39-33-1 ATS)

Denver continues a five-game road trip as it travels south to Orlando, looking for a season sweep of the Magic (6:00 PM EST). The Nuggets ended a two-game skid with Carmelo Anthony's buzzer-beating shot against the Raptors on Friday, but Denver is now 0-7 ATS the last seven games. The Magic took care of business against the lowly Wolves at home, but failed to cover as hefty 15 ½-point favorites.

The Nuggets are 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS the last four on the front-end of a back-to-back, as Denver travels to Dallas for a crucial showdown with the Mavs on Monday. Denver's offense has slumped recently by scoring below 100 points in five of the last six games, which has resulted in five 'unders.'

The Magic are coming off consecutive non-covers, but that is unusual for Stan Van Gundy's team over the last two months. Since January 30, Orlando is 8-2 ATS off an ATS loss with the two defeats coming in SU wins over the Lakers and Wolves. The Magic has stepped up their defense in March, limiting 11 of their last 12 opponents to less than 100 points. The lone team to break that barrier was the Heat, but Miami needed overtime to reach 102 points in a six-point Magic victory on March 18.

The Nuggets ran the Magic out of the Pepsi Center, 115-97 on January 13 as 5 ½-point favorites. Orlando concluded that road trip at 1-3, but the Magic are 25-7 since that horrendous trip. Denver's 82-73 win at Amway Arena last February snapped a 13-game losing streak in Orlando which dated back to 1994.

Blazers (44-29 SU, 39-32-2 ATS) at Thunder (44-27 SU, 42-29 ATS)

These two Northwest Division rivals are fighting to the end for better positioning in the Western Conference playoff race (7:00 PM EST). The Blazers are hitting their stride right now with 12 wins in their last 15 games, while the Thunder is coming off a pair of dominating performances over the Rockets and Lakers.

Oklahoma City is fresh off two revenge victories, snapping a 13-game skid against Houston and a 12-game losing streak to Los Angeles. The Thunder is the hunted on Sunday evening as OKC took care of Portland at the Rose Garden on February 9 with an 89-77 victory. Scott Brooks' squad is 7-2 ATS the last nine at home against teams currently above .500.

The Blazers will be on the second of a back-to-back following Saturday's win at New Orleans. Portland has been tremendous with no rest this season, compiling a 13-3 SU/ATS mark. On the flip side, the Thunder is 2-8 ATS when facing teams without rest, including recent losses to the Bobcats and Thunder as favorites.

Since blowing a 25-point lead in an overtime loss to the Jazz on February 21, the Blazers are 5-3-1 ATS and 6-3 SU as a road underdog. Some may argue that Portland has simply cleaned up against mediocre-to-poor competition in this stretch, as ten wins have come against teams below .500. However, the Blazers need every win they can get to avoid the eighth spot and a date with the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs.

In Portland's last trip to the Ford Center back on November 1, the Blazers put together one of their best defensive efforts by limiting the Thunder to 34% shooting from the floor in an 83-74 triumph. Nine of the last ten meetings between these teams have finished 'under' the total dating back to Kevin Durant's rookie year in Seattle in 2007.

Spurs (43-28 SU, 37-33-1 ATS) at Celtics (47-25 SU, 30-40-2 ATS)

San Antonio concludes a rough stretch over the last week as the Spurs head to Boston to take on the Celtics (8:00 PM EST). Gregg Popovich's team came back to beat the Cavs on Friday, avenging a two-point loss at Cleveland earlier this month. Now, the Spurs will try exact revenge for a home setback to the Celtics on December 3.

Boston has won six of seven since falling at Cleveland two weeks ago, pushing the Celtics ahead of the Hawks for the third seed in the Eastern Conference. The C's are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS the last eight at home coming off the embarrassing loss to the Nets in late February.

The Spurs' gauntlet this past week has consisted of wins over the Thunder and Cavs, but losses to the Hawks and Lakers. Similarly to Portland, San Antonio went through a nice stretch of wins over less than substantial opponents, pushing the Spurs to the seventh spot in the West. San Antonio is a profitable 6-4 ATS the last ten games as a road underdog, dating back to mid-January.

The road team has ruled this series recently with six of seven victories coming from the away club. Boston slowed down San Antonio at the AT&T Center, 90-83, the fourth straight win for the C's in the Alamo. The Spurs knocked off the Celtics last February in Boston, 105-99 as 6 ½-point underdogs. Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner each put in 23 points in the victory for San Antonio, who won despite allowing Boston to shoot 50% from the floor.

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