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**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 12:57 AM

Sweet 16 & Elite 8 Tendencies

With the NCAA tournament moving into the Sweet 16 round on Thursday, then the Elite 8 round on Saturday, here are some trends you’ll want to use this weekend as the field narrows further. Plus, stay tuned throughout the next few days as we take a closer look at each of the games. Included in this piece are round-by-round notes from our friend at Playbook.com, Marc Lawrence.

Sweet 16 Round

The Sweet 16 round is typically the end of the run for most “Cinderella” teams. Better seeds & favorites have only lost six of the 32 games in this round over the L4 years. They are 10-6 ATS the last two years.

Since ‘03 there have been 20 favorites of 5-1/2 points or more in the Sweet 16 round. Those teams are 20-0 SU & 12-7-1 ATS (63%), holding their opponents to just 64.4 PPG while winning by 12.1 PPG.

#1 seeds are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in the Sweet 16 round over the last two years. However, they are just 5-5 SU & 2-7-1 (22%) in their L10 of this round when favored by 5-points or less.

In the last seven games where two teams seeded #6 or worse met in the Sweet 16, the lesser seed is 6-1 SU & ATS (86%).

Double-digit seeded teams are just 2-10 SU & 4-8 ATS in the Sweet 16 round since ’03.

Oddsmakers have provided a good blueprint on totals in one sense in the Sweet 16, as in games with posted totals of 128 points or less, UNDER the total is 11-2 (85%) since ’99.

Marc Lawrence's Sweet 16 Notes
• #1 Seed favs < 11 pts off BB SUATS wins are 10-2 ATS

• #2 Seeds are 12-5 ATS vs opponents off a SU dog win

• #4 Seed dogs are 2-8 ATS vs foes off BB SUATS wins

• #5 Seeds are 1-4 ATS vs foes off BB SUATS wins

• #6 Seeds off a DD SU win are 2-6 ATS

• #9 or higher seed dogs > 2 pts are 3-10 ATS

• Favorites off a SU win of 30 > pts are 4-0 ATS

• Favorites off BB SU wins of 15 > pts are 10-2 ATS

• Underdogs who scored < 65 pts last game are 7-3 ATS

• Underdogs off BB dog wins are 2-9 ATS

• Underdogs who scored 85 > pts last game are 2-7 ATS

Best Team SU & ATS records in this round
Xavier: 3-0 ATS, Michigan St: 5-1 SU & ATS, Kentucky: 10-2 SU / 9-3 ATS, West Virginia: 3-1 ATS

Worst Team SU & ATS records in this round
Butler: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Tennessee: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Washington: 0-3 SU, Duke: 1-5 SU & ATS, Syracuse: 1-4 SU / 0-4-1 ATS, Purdue: 1-3 SU & ATS.

Best Conference ATS records in this round
Atlantic 10: 6-0, SEC: 8-2 as dogs, Big 10: 14-5.

Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big East: 0-5 as favs < 7 pts, Pac 10: 1-6 as dogs, Big 12: 1-5 as favs 10 < pts, ACC: 3-11 as favs 8 < pts.

Elite 8 Round (Quarterfinals)

Lesser seeds hold an overall advantage in this round since 1998, going 29-17-2 ATS (63%).

Since eight straight covers by lesser seeds in the Elite 8 round games of 2005 & 2006, better seeds, all #1’s, have gone 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS.

In Elite 8 games that have had pointspreads of 3-points or less, the lesser seeds are on an incredible run of 17-4 SU & 16-5 ATS (76%), including 13-3 SU & ATS as underdogs!

Teams favored by 8-points or more in the quarterfinal round have lost just two of the last 12 games outright, but are just 3-9 ATS (25%).

Teams seeded #4 or worse and taking on a better seed are on a 15-5 ATS (75%) run in the quarterfinal games.

There has only been one upset in the Elite 8 round since ’98 when the difference between the seeds has been five or more. In such game, the better seeds are 12-1 SU but 4-8-1 ATS (33%).

The Elite 8 round has been the highest scoring of any round over the last eight years, with games averaging a total of 147.5 PPG while going 28-15-1 OVER (65%).

In games with totals less than 145, the OVER has been spectacular, 22-7 (76%). In games between “A” level conference teams, the OVER is 20-9 since ’99.

Marc Lawrence's Elite 8 Notes
• #1 Seed favs > 7 pts are 0-7 ATS vs foe off BB ATS wins

• #2 Seeds are 2-9-1 ATS off a DD ATS win

• #3 Seeds are 1-4 ATS

• #4 Seeds are 7-1 ATS

• #5 Seeds are 4-0 SU and ATS

• #6 Seeds are 0-6 SU

• #8 or higher seeds are 6-2-2 ATS

• Teams off BB ATS losses are 6-2 ATS

• Teams with Revenge are 12-4-1 ATS

• Favs who scored < 65 pts last game are 0-5 ATS

• Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 1-4-1 ATS

• Dogs who scored 85 < pts last game are 1-4 ATS

COACH ME IF YOU CAN:

• Jim Boeheim is 1-5-1 ATS in Sweet 16 games, but 6-0 ATS from the Elite 8 out

• Tom Izzo is 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games

• Bob Huggins is 1-9 ATS as an NCAA tourney dog or favorite of less than two points

THE IDES OF MARCH:

• Xavier is 25-12 SU and 24-12-1 ATS during the month of March since 2004, including 14-1-1 ATS in the NCAA tourney.

Title Odds
Here is a look at each team's title odds according to Sportsbook.com, along with my thoughts on their chances...

Baylor +2500: Perhaps the least publicized of any Sweet 16 team, yet favored to reach Elite 8. I don’t see it though.

Butler +5000: Don’t believe this team has the horses to get by Syracuse.

Cornell +7500: Honestly…performance this weekend was un-Cinderella-like. Kentucky must be on-guard.

Duke +500: Very long odds for highest remaining ******* Outplay Factor team. My new pick for title.

Kansas State +600: Toughest remaining road to title of any high seed. Longshot.

Kentucky +175: Most dominant team in first two rounds. Yet to be tested, but still the favorite.

Michigan State +3000: Lucas injury devastating. Will be lucky to survive UNI.

Northern Iowa +5000: If 3-point shots continue to fall, Final Four berth possible. That’s it.

Ohio State +800: Favorite in Midwest Region, best player, best defense.

Purdue +6000: Heavy underdog to Duke, has matched up poorly in recent head-to-head play.

St Marys (CA) +5000: Samhan the player-of-the-tournament thus far. One more win possible.

Syracuse +400: Written off after Onuaku injury, yet West Region looks there for the taking.

Tennessee +3500: Playing much better than expected. Buckeyes a stern test though.

Washington +4000: Is a Pac 10 team really a Cinderella? Seem to be coming back together at right time.

West Virginia +600: Defense was superb for the last 2-3 weeks. East Region final matchup vs. UK would be outstanding.

Xavier +4000: New game plan, same tourney results, now 14-1-1 ATS in L16 tourney games. Wow.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 12:57 AM

Midwest Region Semifinals

The Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, Missouri is the locale for the Midwest Region semifinals on Friday night. Things get kicked off with Ohio State taking on Tennessee in a rematch of the 2007 South semis. After that game goes final, Northern Iowa will look to shove its foot back into the glass slipper when they face Michigan State in the nightcap.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants initially opened the Buckeyes up as 4 ½-point favorites with a total of 135. Most betting shops have adhered to that same spread, but the total has shrunk slightly to 134. For those bettors wanting to back Tennessee (27-8 straight up, 13-16-1 against the spread), they’ll get a plus-175 return (risk $100 to $175) on the outright win.

Ohio State (29-7 SU, 17-14 ATS) comes into its second Sweet Sixteen berth in four years after dumping the 15th-seeded Gauchos in the first round and sending the 10th-seeded Yellow Jackets packing.

The Bucks failed to cover as 17 ½-point faves in their 68-51 win over Cal-Santa Barbara, but were never in danger of falling in this tilt. Evan Turner was tossing up cinder blocks in that opener with nine points on 2-of-13 shooting from the field. John Diebler was there to pick up the slack with 23 points as he went 7-of-12 from beyond the arc.

OSU needs Turner and Diebler to put up strong numbers every time out because things get pretty thin for the team outside of the starting five. To give you an idea of how little depth Thad Matta’s squad has, just consider the playing time against Georgia Tech. Turner, Diebler and William Buford all played 40 minutes. Dallas Lauderdale put in 31 minutes of work, while David Lighty was on the floor for 36 minutes. In the first two rounds of this tourney, Ohio State’s starters played in 312 of a possible 320 minutes of action.

The Volunteers reached the regional semifinals after surviving a scare against 11th-seed San Diego State, then pushing 14th-seed Ohio back to a curb somewhere in Athens. Bruce Pearl’s crew is playing strong at just the right time, going 7-1 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in its last eight contests.

Tennessee came awfully close to not even being in this spot after holding onto a 62-59 over the Aztecs. Wayne Chism made two clutch free throws in the final eight seconds of the game to create the final margin of victory; he wound up with nine points altogether against SDSU. J.P. Prince paced the Vols with 15 points and six boards in the victory.

The Vols didn’t have any issues in running away late against Ohio in an 83-68 triumph as 8 ½-point faves last Saturday. Prince came up big once again with 18 point and four rebounds against the Bobcats.

Tennessee has been listed as an underdog nine times this season, going 4-5 SU and 4-4-1 ATS. In the last six spots, they are 2-4 SU and ATS.

Ohio State is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS when tabbed as a single-digit “chalk” this year. The ‘over’ has gone 7-4 in those spots as well.

These two teams met in the 2007 South Region semifinals with OSU as a 4 ½-point favorite. Yet the Bucks looked nothing like a team worthy of making a run to the championship game after going down 20 points. Ohio State found a way to fight back and win 85-85 on the strength of a Greg Oden block with 0.2 seconds left.

The Vols did exact some revenge the following season with a 74-69 win in Knoxville, but Ohio State covered as a 11 ½-point road pup.

All told, the Buckeyes are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in their last three showdowns with UT. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in those contests as well.

You’ll see this game tip-off on CBS at 7:10 p.m. EDT.

About 30 minutes after the first game goes final, Northern Iowa (30-4 SU, 22-10-1 ATS) will look to continue its Cinderella run against the Spartans.

There is no discounting how good the Panthers are after looking at their road to the Sweet Sixteen. They opened up with a white-knuckle 69-66 win over UNLV in the first round as one-point favorites. This game appeared to be heading to an extra session with a 66-66 score until Ali Farokhmanesh drilled a three-point jumper with 4.2 seconds left.

Farokhmanesh wasn’t satisfied by showing he had the stones to drop the Rebs. Oh no, he was going to cement his flair for the clutch shot against No. 1 overall seed Kansas. UNI held a comfortable lead for much of the game…that was until the Jayhawks pulled within one at 63-62. The Panthers’ senior guard nailed a three-pointer with 35 seconds on the clock to essentially put the game out of reach. KU made a bucket late, but the UNI walked away with a 69-67 upset as an 11 ½-point underdog. And those gamblers that had the guts to take Ben Jacobson’s club to win outright were rewarded with a plus-700 return (risk $100 to win $700).

Farokhmanesh led Northern Iowa scorers with 16 points, while Jordan Eglseder popped in 14 points with five boards.

Michigan State (26-8 SU, 13-20 ATS) has had to work for this spot in the regional semifinals. The Spartans survived a thriller against 12th-seed New Mexico State 70-67, but failed to cover as 13-point faves. And it didn’t get any easier against for MSU against the No. 4 Terrapins as they won 85-83 as a 1 ½-point pup on Korie Lucious’ three-pointer at the buzzer.

The Spartans’ win over Maryland could be considered one of Tom Izzo’s finer coaching effort considering they were without Kalin Lucas for the final 22 minutes of the game. At first it didn’t look like Lucas’ absence would matter as Michigan State pulled out to a 16-point lead in the second half. But the Terps weren’t going away quietly with Greivis Vasquez scoring 10 points in the final two-minutes of the game. Luckily for the kids from East Lansing that Lucious was able to hit his game-winner from the top of the key.

We’re going to get see if Izzo can paint another masterpiece this weekend as Lucas is out for the tournament with a ruptured left Achilles’ tendon. That means Lucious will be getting the lion’s share of playing time in his absence. While the sophomore can make a clutch shot, his ball-handling and leadership skills are nowhere near what we’ve seen with Lucas over the past three years.

The Spartans have been nothing more than a coin flip this season as single-digit faves, evidenced by a 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. In the last five instances under this situation, Michigan State has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five matches.

Northern Iowa have posted a great 6-1 SU and ATS record when listed as an underdog this season with the ‘under’ going 5-1.

The Panthers also have a pristine 4-0 SU and ATS mark when facing teams from the power conference this season. The ’under’ was 2-1 in those games.

UNI has seen the ‘under’ go 17-6 for the entire season, but the ‘over’ has hit in three straight games.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 12:58 AM

East Region Semifinals

After this, all that’s left is kids and memories so we want this to last as long as possible.” -- Cornell senior point guard Louis Dale

The East Region semifinals will take place Thursday at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, NY. In the lid-lifter, West Virginia will square off against Washington, followed by Cornell vs. Kentucky.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Mountaineers as 3 ½-point favorites with a total of 140. As of early Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Bob Huggins’ team favored by four or 4 1/2 with the total at 142. Bettors can back the Huskies to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

West Virginia (29-6 straight up, 15-19 against the spread) advanced to the Sweet 16 by sending home 15th-seeded Morgan St. and 10th-seeded Missouri. The ‘Neers got off to an inauspicious start in their first-round game against the Bears, trailing by a 10-0 count out of the gate. Nevertheless, they recovered to cruise to a 77-50 win as 17-point favorites.

Kevin Jones scored a game-high 17 points and grabbed eight rebounds, while Devin Ebanks posted a double-double with 16 points and 13 boards.

Next, WVU dropped Missouri 68-59 to take the cash as a six-point ‘chalk.’ Da’Sean Butler erupted for 28 points, while Butler and Jones went for 14 and 13 points, respectively, against the Tigers.

During Tuesday’s practice, WVU starting point guard Darryl ‘Truck’ Bryant broke his foot. The sophomore's loss is big, but not a complete deal-breaker in my opinion. The Mountaineers will turn to junior guard Joe Mazzulla, who plays an excellent floor game and has loads of experience. However, due to a shoulder injury that has bothered him throughout the last two seasons, Mazzulla’s perimeter shooting has been rendered completely ineffective.

In fact, he hasn’t hit a 3-pointer all year, missing all five attempts. Mazzulla’s free-throw percentage has dipped to 55%. Bryant, who attended St. Raymond’s High School in the Bronx, was second on the team in 3-pointers made and free throws made.

Washington (26-9 SU, 16-18 ATS) has caught fire at the right time, winning nine straight games while compiling an 8-1 spread record. The Huskies beat Marquette in one of the best games of the tournament so far, rallying for an 80-78 win on Quincy Pondexter’s game-winning bucket with 1.7 seconds remaining. They cashed tickets as one-point underdogs in the opening-round win over the Golden Eagles.

Lorenzo Romar’s squad was dominant in the second round, trouncing New Mexico by an 82-64 count as a two-point favorite. Pondexter scored a team-high 18 points, while Isaiah Thomas had 15 points and seven assists.

Washington is 2-4 both SU and ATS in six underdog spots. Meanwhile, WVU owns an 8-10 ATS ledger in 18 games as a single-digit favorite.

The ‘under’ has cashed in six consecutive games for West Va, improving to 18-14 overall. The ‘over’ is 16-14 overall for the Huskies.

This game will come off the board at 7:25 p.m. Eastern.

As we move our conversation to Cornell-Kentucky, let’s get a few things straight right off the bat. For starters, let’s be crystal clear that Cornell’s presence in the Sweet 16 is no joke and, to loyal readers of this space, no surprise whatsoever. We’ve been hyping this senior-laded club since it spanked Alabama in Tuscaloosa in its season opener.

Steve Donahue’s squad showed remarkable offensive efficiency against two of the best defenses in the nation last weekend. The Big Red stroked fifth-seeded Temple 78-65 as a three-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-140 payout at tip time (the money-line play was as generous as plus-170 earlier in the week).

Louis Dale had 21 points and seven assists against the Owls, while Ryan Wittman had 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting from the field and 4-of-6 on attempts from 3-point range. Jeff Foote, the senior 7-foot center, had 16 points and seven rebounds.

After the win over Temple, some thought Cornell (29-4 SU, 18-10 ATS) would be like Vermont in 2005 or Princeton in 1996 and 1998. In other words, it was a nice story but it was going no further.

Wrong!

Cornell jumped all over fourth-seeded Wisconsin early and often, taking a 72-43 lead with 10:53 left after Dale completed a three-point play the hard way. The Badgers, notorious for tenacious defense during Bo Ryan’s tenure that’s produced NCAA Tournament appearances every season, had allowed more than 72 points in just two games this year.

They surrendered 74 points to Gonzaga in Hawaii way back in November. Also, Wisconsin-Green Bay put up 88 on Wisky in an overtime game (just 75 at the end of regulation). And Cornell had produced a 72-spot in only 29 minutes against Ryan’s bunch that had wins over Duke, Michigan St., Purdue, Ohio St., Maryland and Marquette.

After icing the clock down the stretch against Wisconsin, Cornell cruised to an 87-69 victory as a 4 ½-point underdog. Most gamblers taking the Big Red to win outright were rewarded with a plus-160 payout (paid $160 on $100 wagers).

Dale was spectacular once again, finishing with a game-high 26 points. Wittman had 24 points on 10-of-15 shoting, scoring on an array of catch-and-shoot jumpers (just like his Daddy coming off screens and getting passes from Doc Rivers for my Hawks back in the ‘80s!). Wittman also has an excellent knack for creating space for himself off the dribble and taking a fadeaway mid-range jumper.

Foote had 12 points, seven rebounds and four assists against the Badgers. Foote certainly doesn’t have the bulk of Kentucky’s DeMarcus Cousins, but he’s got excellent footwork around the basket, a nice touch on his shot and he’s an outstanding passer for a big man (sort of reminding me of Florida’s Dwayne Schintzius circa late ‘80s).

Like Cornell, Kentucky (34-2 SU, 19-15 ATS) was dominant last weekend. The ‘Cats took East Tennessee St. behind the woodshed from the get-go, capturing a 101-70 win to easily hook up their backers who were laying 18 ½ points. Eric Bledsoe had a game-high 29 points, draining 8-of-9 shots from beyond the arc. Patrick Patterson had 22 points, while John Wall finished with 17 points and 11 assists.

In its second-round game against Wake Forest, UK delivered another shellacking, this time in the form of a 90-60 clubbing as a 9 ½-point favorite. Darius Miller went for 20 points and nine rebounds, while Cousins scored 19 points and pulled down eight boards. Wall added 14 points and seven assists, although we should note his five turnovers.

Cornell has been listed as an underdog seven times, posting a 5-2 SU record and a 6-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, John Calipari’s team owns a 10-5 spread record in 15 games as a single-digit favorite.

The ‘over’ has hit in three straight UK games to improve to 18-15 overall.

The ‘under’ is 12-10 overall for Cornell, although the ‘over’ prevailed in both of its games last weekend.

This game will be played 30 minutes after WVU-Washington concludes. You can be assured that at least 12-15 thousand UK fans will find their way into the Carrier Dome. Likewise, a strong Cornell contingent will be on hand, as the school’s campus in Ithaca is just a one-hour drive to Syracuse. Also, it’s a given that every non-UK fan in attendance will be rooting for the Big Red.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--For bettors thinking Kentucky’s athleticism will be like nothing Cornell has seen, think again. The Big Red played at Kansas this year and had a one-point lead in the final minute before Sherron Collins made several big plays to lead KU to a 71-66 win. Donahue’s team has also played at the Carrier Dome this year, losing 88-73 to the Orange in a game the ‘Cuse led 42-36 at halftime.

--West Va. and Washington shared three common foes this season – Marquette, Georgetown and Texas A&M. The ‘Neers beat the Hoyas twice and also won against the Golden Eagles and Aggies. The Huskies beat Marquette and Texas A&M, but they lost to Georgetown by a 74-66 count.

--I love it when ESPN’s Doug Gottlieb talks about players being ineffective offensively. Gottlieb, a point guard, had a career free-throw percentage of 45.7%, which is obviously pathetic. When I was eight years old, I could hit 60-percent from the charity stripe. In a four-year collegiate career at Notre Dame (one year) and Oklahoma St. (three years), he shot 36.8% from the floor and 24% from 3-point land. Just the facts, folks, just the facts.

--Since I got in a St. Raymond’s High School reference earlier in regards to Truck Bryant, let’s get a shout-out in to my favorite all-time point guard from St. Raymond’s, former UTEP point guard Eddie Rivera, who absolutely dominated the now-defunct Governor’s Cup Tournament in Tallahassee at the Leon Co. Civic Center (where FSU plays) during the 1989 Christmas Holidays. Other big-time players that once played in the Governor’s Cup include Andrew Moten (Florida), Dwayne Schintzius (Florida), Toney Mack (Georgia), Robert Horry (Alabama), Avery Curry (FSU and Idaho) and Darryl Prue (West Va.).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 12:59 AM

Big Men to play big roles in South Region

This time of year the mantra of winning college basketball is having great guard play. Every team reportedly needs a player that can control the tempo, knockdown shots and defend the perimeter. But what about a big fella in the middle? One who can score in the paint area and draw fouls to help his team get in the bonus shooting free throws sooner, resulting in fewer empty trips. Another example would crashing the offensive boards on errant shots for demoralizing baskets and what about having an intimidating defensive presence that makes shooters wary when they are within several feet of the rim! All four teams have individual or collective players that could be the reason they move on to Sunday’s Elite Eight.

Omar Samhan vs. the Waco Gang

Tenth-seeded St. Mary’s has much the same feel as the conference partner Gonzaga had back in 1999. That Gonzaga team went to the Elite 8, with three consecutive upsets, led by guards Matt Santangelo and Richie Frahm. Watching that team play, you were struck by the fact they looked like a collection of guys that would be playing at the health club in the not too distant future, not being Mickey D’s All-Americans with a professional career in their future.

Taking a gander at St. Mary’s (28-5, 22-9-1 ATS), their team has many of those same qualities except for one person, Omar Samhan. The Gaels big man is one of the finest centers in the country and a terrific example of someone who benefitted from four years of collegiate ball. He has an assortment of moves around the basket and always works to make himself available for passes to the post, which is how he’s scored 61 points in two games. Samhan this season has become a more skilled passer, able to find open shooters on the weak side as double-teams are about to arrive. He’s a very big reason why St. Mary’s is 16-6 ATS facing defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers game this season.

He and 6’11 Ben Allen will be dueling with Baylor’s big men.

The Bears (27-7, 17-10 ATS) have the size and quickness edge in the paint with 7’0 Josh Lomers and 6’10 Ekpe Udoh. It appears Udoh will probably draw Samhan on defense and he has the quickness and arm length to play denial defense and shot-blocking skill to make him hesitant. Lomers also will undoubtedly take a few turns and he has the bulk to match strength with St. Mary’s big men.

Udoh is also a rim-runner, able to play at accelerated pace, which makes him devastating dunker and exceptional offensive rebounder. Baylor’s length at several positions on the floor allows them to be 7-0 ATS vs. excellent three point shooting teams converting 41 or better of their attempts.

Baylor is a 4.5-point favorite, with total having dipped to 142.5 at Sportsbook.com. Though Waco is a long way from Houston (where this game is being played), Texans tend to stick together and the Bears will have partisan fan-base. The Bears are 11-2 ATS having won four of their last five games and are 14-3 OVER after playing a game as favorite this season. Don’t expect St. Mary’s to be intimidated, with the gregarious Samhan always having something to say.

The Gaels are 8-1 ATS in any tournament game this year and 10-seeds are 4-7 SU against three seeds in this round. One bad note for St. Mary’s, if this 10-seed didn’t make the tournament last year (which the Gaels did not), they are 0-7 SU.

JaJuan Johnson takes on Duke brigade

Purdue (29-5, 15-18-1 ATS) lacked size before Robbie Hummel went down, now they have to find other ways to win. Coach Matt Painter has dug into the old Southern Illinois playbook (his last stop), where he made size not matter. To upset Duke as 8.5-point underdogs, the Boilermakers are going to have to win the battle on the perimeter and have Johnson create a stalemate inside.

Johnson has good moves around the basket, however, as he exhibited against the stronger Texas A&M big men, he can go outside and bank 15-footers and comfortably make 18-footers, which opens the middle for cutters. Much like the win over the Aggies, Purdue has to manufacture points and have a high number of points per possession. The Boilers have cashed eight of previous 11 tickets as neutral site pooches.

Duke (31-5, 20-14-1 ATS) can bring tall, strong players in waves. Center Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas start things off with solid defense and score enough to have to be guarded by opponent. Next comes the Plumlee brothers, both are aggressive rebounders on each of the floor and what they lack in quicks, they make-up for by using bodies to stay fundamentally sound. Like Purdue, the Blue Devils permit 61 points per game and their opponents only convert 40.1 percent of the time. With Duke’s defense, they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this year.

The oddsmakers believe Purdue will control the tempo, with 127 listed total. The Boilermakers can’t allow many short Duke runs of 6-0 or 8-2, since they lack the firepower to run with the Blue Devils and are 6-13-1 ATS after a cover dating back to last season. Jon Scheyer and teammates only committed five turnovers against California last Sunday and are 8-1 ATS after a game committing eight or less miscues.

This was the only region to have expected 1 vs 4 matchup. The top seeds are 26-10 SU, winning by 8.6 points per game. A key number for the lower seed is score differential to pull the upset. Four seeds that win by 10 or more points are 7-6 when these seeds collide; all others are 3-18 SU. (Purdue is +9.9)

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 01:00 AM

Midwest flavor in Midwest Regional

Three of the four teams in St. Louis for the NCAA Tournament are manageable distances, being from the Big Ten or Missouri Valley conferences. Tennessee is the only outsider, however is closer to the city with The Arch by just over 30 miles compared to those from Columbus, Oh. By the end of Friday night, at least one team from the heartland will have a chance to make a trip to the Final Four in Indianapolis and quite possibly two.

Unusual Meeting

To say Northern Iowa and Michigan State facing off against one another is peculiar, that would be like President Obama inviting Republicans over to the White House for a barbeque to celebrate the signing of health care bill. Since the NCAA Tournament was expand to field of 64 (65) teams, only once has a five seed squared off against a nine-seed in the Sweet 16 and that was Boston College against Indiana 16 years ago, when a certain “general” was still patrolling the sidelines at IU.

Northern Iowa (30-4, 23-10 ATS) pulled the biggest surprise of the tournament, knocking off top-ranked Kansas in impressive manner. The Panthers didn’t corral the Jayhawks in fluky fashion, after trailing 3-2, UNI was never again on the wrong side of the scoreboard and shot below their season average of 43 percent (40%) in engineering the upset.

Northern Iowa is fearless, with players like Adam Koch and Ali Farokhmanesh willing to take big shots and making them. The Panthers have won six straight and are 10-3 ATS after five or more consecutive wins with some of their strengths largely unnoticed. They hold opponents to 40.6 percent shooting and coach Ben Jacobson has taught them to hand off players on the move, yet seldom are caught in bad matchups. Quietly, UNI goes about their business and has 10 players that are productive in one form or another without a drop-off in output.

Michigan State (26-8, 13-20 ATS) will have to overcome the loss of floor leader Kalin Lucas. Coach Tom Izzo has spent the week preaching to Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green and Durrell Summers about their responsibility to their teammates and about elevating their level of play with their leading scorer out. The Spartans rose to the challenge against Maryland and are not in shock, since Lucas missed five games earlier in the season.

The Spartans are a one-point favorite with total of 122.5 at Sportsbook.com and are 6-15 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season. Northern Iowa has thrived in this situation, sporting an 8-1 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Though the total is up two points from opening figure, the Panthers are 16-4 UNDER when playing only their second game in a week and Michigan State is 6-2-1 UNDER off a cover.

Buckeyes look to avoid Orange Crush

Last weekend after Kansas and Georgetown were dismissed from the tournament, Ohio State (29-7, 18-16 ATS) was given a free pass to the Final Four by many television types. One aspect overlooked was the quality of the Buckeyes next opponent, Tennessee (27-8, 14-17 ATS).

The Volunteers turn of the calendar issues have been well documented, however that strife might well have made them a better team, having to lean on each other, rather than particular players. Center Brian Williams has become more of a force, giving Wayne Chism more help on the glass. Guards J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson were presented with more shot opportunities and Bruce Pearl’s club has knocked off highly ranked teams like Kentucky and Kansas, proving they belong in the Sweet 16.

Coach Pearl also has his squad playing defense, holding teams to 39.3 percent and they are 25-14 ATS versus teams making 37 or more percent from beyond the arc. Tennessee is a 4.5-point underdog and is 11-21 ATS after being favored in back-to-back contests, plus is 8-0 UNDER after making 55 percent or better of their shot attempts.

Sixth seeds like the Vols are 2-6 ATS after a double digit triumph in this round of action.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 01:56 PM

Suns in blazing hot system

In sports, one of the old sayings is – sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make. For Phoenix, this has turned out to be abundantly true. It was known all over the league the Suns front office was trying to move Amare Stoudemire and were reportedly very close with both Cleveland and Miami, however Phoenix didn’t pull the trigger on either deal and Stoudemire stayed. This non-move has turned out to be the best move for the franchise.

At the trade deadline, the Suns (45-26, 39-30-2 ATS) were bouncing back between seventh and eighth position for NBA playoffs, but no more. Phoenix has won 13 of last 16 (11-4-1 ATS), including last five in a row. Not only have the Suns moved up to fifth spot in Western Conference, they are one loss behind Dallas, Denver and Utah to potentially rise as high as the No. 2 slot out West with 11 games to play.

Among the varied reasons for this upheaval is Stoudemire. Often thought to be a malcontent, more worried about personal stats than winning, he has been absolutely domineering with 30.8 points while adding 10.0 rebounds over the last 11 games.

“He’s been great,” coach Alvin Gentry said of the forward, who leads the team with 22.9 points and 8.8 boards per game. “We try to take advantage of situations where they try to put undersized guys on him.

“He’s come through for us big time. He’s played great. The last month and a half, I think he’s been the best player in the NBA.”

The Suns are 3-1-1 ATS during this latest winning streak, which including titillating 152-114 explosion over Minnesota. Phoenix has shot 52.7 percent or better in four of last five outings.

The person that led the Suns revival is now the coach of the New York franchise, Mike D’Antoni. Thus far in taking over the Knicks he has been similar to his predecessors, unsuccessful at 26-45. The roster lacks many of the attributes he had in the desert, namely a point guard even remotely similar to Steve Nash.

New York isn’t all that interesting to watch either, ranked 11th in scoring at 101.7 points per game and has played UNDER in eight of last 11 contests.

The folks at Sportsbook.com have Phoenix as 10.5-point favorites, with total of 224 and that spread could be beatable with this super system.

Play On favorites of 10 or more points after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, against opponent after going Under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.

This isn’t a system that comes up frequently, just over two times a season on average since 1996. While it doesn’t pop up often, the results certainly do stand out with 25-5 ATS record, 83.3 percent. Among the comforting aspects are the favorite has NEVER lost and the average winning margin is 17.9 points per game. This system has also stayed consistent, 13-2 ATS the last five seasons.

To further enhance to probability of this system being correct, Phoenix is off a 133-131 squeaker over Golden State Monday night and the blazing hot Suns are 11-1 ATS after a close win by three points or less over the last three seasons.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 02:03 PM

Friday, March 26Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ottawa - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo -152 500
Buffalo - Under 5 500

Minnesota - 7:30 PM ET Minnesota +275 500
Detroit - Over 5.5 500

Anaheim - 9:00 PM ET Anaheim -129 500
Edmonton - Under 5.5 500

===============================================

Friday, March 26Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte -10 500
Charlotte - Under 181.5 500

Utah - 7:00 PM ET Utah -5 500 ( NBA POD )
Indiana - Under 211.5 500

Minnesota - 7:00 PM ET Minnesota +15 500
Orlando - Over 211 500

Atlanta - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia +5 500
Philadelphia - Under 195 500

Denver - 7:00 PM ET Toronto +5.5 500
Toronto - Over 217 500

Sacramento - 7:30 PM ET Boston -12 500
Boston - Under 197 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET New Jersey -1.5 500
New Jersey - Under 192.5 500

L.A. Lakers - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City +1.5 500 ( NBA DOG )
Oklahoma City - Under 200.5 500

Miami - 8:30 PM ET Milwaukee -3 500
Milwaukee - Over 182.5 500 ( NBA TOTAL )

Cleveland - 8:30 PM ET San Antonio +1 500 ( POD )
San Antonio - Over 194.5 500

New York - 10:00 PM ET Phoenix -10.5 500 ( POD )
Phoenix - Over 224.5 500

**bryce** · 03-26-2010, 03:35 PM

Good luck Stardust!!

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 05:38 PM

Thanks Bryce....i need some luck...last night was a nightmare....omg........maybe tonight will be better......

**bryce** · 03-26-2010, 05:43 PM

I know the feeling...thanks for posting good info and good reads everyday!
Gl again

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 05:46 PM

Friday, March 26Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tennessee - 7:05 PM ET Tennessee +4.5 500 ( SEC DOG )
Ohio St. - Under 135 300

St. Mary's - 7:25 PM ET Baylor -5 500 ( BIG 12 POD )
Baylor - Over 142 500 ( TOTAL POD )

Northern Iowa - 9:35 PM ET Northern Iowa +1 500 ( SLEEPING DOG OUTRIGHT )
Michigan St - Under 120.5 500

Purdue - 9:55 PM ET Duke -8.5 500 ( ACC POD )
Duke - Over 126 300

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 05:53 PM

Trend Report - Friday

Wizards at Bobcats – The Wizards are 0-9 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since January 02, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they were out-rebounded by double-digits. The Wizards are 8-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since April 13, 2007 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since January 16, 2008 at home after a win in which their DPA was positive.

Heat at Bucks – The Bucks are 0-6-1 ATS (-7.1 ppg) since February 21, 2006 at home with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they had at least 12 steals. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since January 02, 2010 after a double digit loss in which they were outshot by at least 10 percent.

Kings at Celtics – The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since January 12, 2007 when they suffered a double digit ATS loss for two straight games. The League is 9-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since April 16, 2008 at home after a double digit win in which they had at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent. The Celtics are 0-8 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since April 16, 2000 at home with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they were whistled for at least 30 personal fouls.

Timberwolves at Magic – The Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since December 09, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Magic are 10-0-1 ATS (5.2 ppg) since April 28, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Magic are 7-0 ATS (14.5 ppg) since December 03, 2008 at home with at most one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak.

Pistons at Nets – The Pistons are 0-9-1 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since December 19, 2008 when their DPS was minus 15 points or less in their previous game. The Nets are 0-9 ATS (-12.1 ppg) since November 02, 2007 at home after a game at home in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.

Jazz at Pacers - The Jazz are 9-0 ATS (14.9 ppg) since April 13, 1997 on the road with at most one day of rest after a win in which their opponent shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than 25% of them. The Pacers are 11-0-1 ATS (9.3 ppg) since January 25, 2000 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them.

Nuggets at Raptors – The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since February 23, 2004 on the road when they allowed revenge in each of their last two games. The Raptors are 9-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since November 23, 2005 with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists.

Hawks at 76ers – The Hawks are 5-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since November 11, 2009 on the road with at least one day of rest after a home win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Sixers are 0-6 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since March 02, 2009 at home when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss.

Cavaliers at Spurs – The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since December 06, 2008 on the road after a double digit win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since January 26, 2007 when playing the second game of a two game homestand after losing the first. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since March 31, 2009 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they led at the half.

Knicks at Suns – The Suns are 11-0-1 ATS (9.0 ppg) since May 09, 2005 with at least one day of rest after a road win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Suns are 6-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since January 25, 2009 after a game on the road in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four.

Lakers at Thunder – The Lakers are 0-9 ATS (-12.3 ppg) since December 01, 2004 on the road after a road win in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Lakers are 8-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since November 12, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a win in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since March 24, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 05:54 PM

Friday Tips

The Friday NBA card is filled to the brim with 11 games to wager on. Less than three weeks remain in the regular season as playoff spots are getting clinched by the day. Four games involve both teams in playoff contention including a pair of non-conference matchups with the Spurs hosting the Cavs and the Nuggets battling the Raptors. We'll start north of the border to see which struggling team will bounce back.

Nuggets (47-25 SU, 31-36-5 ATS) at Raptors (35-35 SU, 31-39 ATS)

Denver and Toronto are each not playing its best basketball down the stretch, especially from an ATS standpoint. The Nuggets have dropped three consecutive games, while failing to cover six in a row as they head to Toronto (7:00 PM EST). The Raps are 4-11 SU the last 15, as Toronto has covered only three times in this span.

The Nuggets are playing without George Karl patrolling the sidelines as the head coach is undergoing cancer treatment. Denver has stumbled as a favorite, going 0-5 ATS the last five when laying points, including outright road losses at New York and Houston. The scoring has taken a hit recently since the Nuggets averaged 117 ppg for a seven-game stretch from March 3 to March 15. In the last five games, Denver is averaging just 98 ppg while breaking the 100-point barrier only once.

The Raptors had a modest two-game winning streak come to an abrupt halt in a 117-83 home setback to the Jazz. Toronto is "lacking fire," according to leading scorer Chris Bosh, as the Raps are 0-9 ATS the last nine at Air Canada Center. Since the All-Star Break, out of six victories the Raptors have beaten one team over .500 (Hawks).

Both these teams have been nice 'under' plays of late with the Raptors hitting it in four straight, while the Nuggets drilled the 'under' in four of five. Toronto has not been strong off a double-digit loss, compiling an 8-12 SU and 6-14 ATS mark. Denver has won nine of the last ten meetings, including four of the last five in Toronto.

Lakers (53-18 SU, 30-38-3 ATS) at Thunder (43-27 SU, 41-29 ATS)

The Thunder finally broke through against the Rockets following a 13-game losing streak by running Houston out on Wednesday, 122-104. Now, Oklahoma City will try to snap a 12-game skid against the Lakers when the two teams meet up for the final time in the regular season (8:00 PM EST).

The Champs are in the midst of a five-game road trip that began with a 92-83 victory over San Antonio, the seventh straight win for the Lakers. Since allowing 121 points to the Warriors ten days ago, L.A. has limited each of its last four opponents to less than 100 points, resulting in four consecutive 'unders.'

The 122 points scored by OKC against Houston was the second-most put up by the Thunder this season, falling five points short of the 127 scored against Washington in mid-November. The Thunder has not been listed as a home underdog since a December 16 loss to Dallas, as Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS when receiving points at the Ford Center.

One of those covers came back on November 3 when the Lakers staved off the Thunder in overtime, 101-98, but OKC cashed as seven-point underdogs. Phil Jackson's club took care of business at Staples Center three weeks later with a 101-85 victory as 10 ½-point 'chalk.' The Thunder hung around in the next meeting on December 22 in Los Angeles, falling 111-108 as ten-point 'dogs.

Heat (38-34 SU, 36-35-1 ATS) at Bucks (39-31 SU, 44-25-1 ATS)

Milwaukee looks to bounce back from a horrific performance against Philadelphia when the Heat invades the Bradley Center (8:30 PM EST). The Bucks are 2-4 ATS the last six games since 11 consecutive covers from February 19 to March 12. The Heat, meanwhile, tries to break on through against the Bucks for the first time in four tries this season.

The Bucks were coming off solid wins over the Nuggets and Hawks before the stinker against the Sixers on Wednesday. Milwaukee shot 40% from the floor while allowing the offensive-challenged Sixers to break 100 points for just the second time in the last ten games. Despite the Bucks allowing 101 points, the 'under' has hit in seven straight at home.

The Heat will be on the second of a back-to-back following Thursday's blowout win at Chicago. Since Dwyane Wade returned to the Miami lineup on February 28, the Heat is 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS. Miami has played only a handful of road games during this stretch, but owns a 5-2 ATS mark the last seven as a road underdog.

The final game the Heat played without Wade came against the Bucks in a Saturday afternoon in South Florida. Milwaukee dominated from start to finish with a 94-71 drubbing of Miami as two-point 'dogs. All three victories by the Bucks this season have come by double-digits, while each game has finished 'under' the total.

Cavs (57-15 SU, 36-35-1 ATS) at Spurs (42-28 SU, 36-33-1 ATS)

Cleveland and San Antonio hook up for the second time this month, but this time LeBron James will be playing after he missed the last meeting with a sprained ankle (8:30 PM EST). The Spurs are on a bit of a roller-coaster by alternating wins and losses each of the last six games. The Cavs, meanwhile, are hitting their stride with eight consecutive victories.

This winning streak began for Cleveland with a two-point home victory over San Antonio, 97-95 on March 8. That was the second game James missed resting a bum ankle, but the last five victories in this hot streak have come against teams on the outside looking in the playoff race. The defense has been stellar as the Cavs have limited opponents to less than 95 points in 12 of the last 13 games.

The Spurs are in the midst of an eventful stretch in which they have battled the Hawks (loss), Thunder (win), and Lakers (loss), while getting set to battle the Celtics on Sunday in Boston. San Antonio was limited to 37% shooting from the floor in Wednesday's defeat to the Lakers. The Spurs are 6-4 SU/ATS since Tony Parker broke his hand against Memphis on March 6, as the point guard is expected back in April.

The Cavs are 6-1 ATS this season when the pointspread range is between pick-em and 2 ½ points, while beating the Spurs in four of the last five meetings since the 2007 NBA Finals.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-26-2010, 06:50 PM

Northern Iowa (30-4) vs. Michigan State (26-8)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Edward Jones Dome (39,647) -- St. Louis, Missouri. Television: CBS. NCAA Tournament Record: UNI 3-5, MSU 50-22. Series Record: First-ever meeting.

GAME NOTES: Making their first-ever Sweet 16 appearance, the ninth-seeded Northern Iowa Panthers take on the fifth-seeded Michigan State Spartans tonight in the NCAA Tournament's Midwest Regional at the Edward Jones Dome. The victor will move on to the regional finals on Sunday against the winner of the Ohio State/Tennessee matchup.

The Panthers shook up the NCAA Tournament last Saturday, as they knocked off the No.1 overall seed in the event with a 69-67 decision over Kansas on Saturday. UNI, which pulled out a late 69-66 win over UNLV in the first round, hadn't won an NCAA Tournament game in 20 years prior to this year's run. The Panthers, carrying their highest seed ever in this event, have now won a school-record 30 games on their way to the program's first-ever Sweet 16 appearance.

The Spartans meanwhile, are in familiar territory, as they are appearing in the Sweet 16 for the ninth time in 13 seasons. MSU is 6-2 in the Sweet 16 under head coach Tom Izzo and that includes wins in six of its last seven bouts in this round. Getting to this stage wasn't easy however, as the Spartans had to hold off 12th-seeded New Mexico State (70-67) in the first round before pulling out a dramatic 85-83 win over fourth-seeded Maryland on Sunday.

Tonight's game marks the first-ever meeting between MSU and UNI on the hardwood.

Timely shooting and tough defense lifted UNI to the major upset of Kansas, as the Panther drained nine three-pointers and limited the Jayhawks' potent attack to just 67 points in the win. With the Panthers hanging onto a one- point lead, Ali Farokhmanesh calmly drained a three-pointer with 35 seconds left to prevent a comeback, while UNI forced 15 Kansas turnovers. Farokhmanesh, who finished with 16 points, has proven too be one of the most clutch shooters in the tourney, as he also hit the game-winning trey with 4.9 seconds remaining against UNLV in the first round. Jordan Eglseder added 14 points and five boards in the win over Kansas, and the seven-foot center paces UNI with 12.0 ppg and 7.3 rpg for the season. Adam Koch and Kwadzo Ahelegbe check in with 11.6 and 10.6 ppg, respectively, for UNI, which ranks second in the nation in scoring defense (55.0 ppg).

Replacing injured star Kalin Lucas, Korie Lucious drained a three-pointer at the buzzer, giving the Spartans a dramatic 85-83 win over Maryland. Lucious took over after Lucas went down with a foot injury and he finished with 13 points for MSU, which had blown a 16-point second-half advantage. Unfortunately, the win was bittersweet, as Lucas has a ruptured Achilles tendon in his left foot and will miss the remainder of the tournament. That is not only a big loss due to the fact Lucas leads the team in scoring (14.8 ppg) and assists (4.0 apg), but because he is also the team's leader. Durrell Summers is one player who will be asked to pick up the slack and he did so against Maryland, matching his career-high with 26 points. He had 40 points through the first two rounds and is now averaging 10.7 ppg for the season. With Lucas out, that leaves Raymar Morgan as the team's top scorer at 11.6 ppg, and he had 17 points and nine boards in the win over Maryland. Draymond Green, a reserve that can do it all, should also see an increase in time and he turns in 9.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg and 3.1 apg for the season.

The Spartans are going to be without their top player, so that obviously hurts and gives the Panthers an even better chance. Still, MSU matches up pretty well with UNI and should prevail late in what will likely be a defensive battle tonight.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Michigan State 65, Northern Iowa 62

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