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**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2010, 12:16 AM

Wednesday Tips

The Wednesday card in the NBA is loaded with 11 games to wager on, including several marquee matchups. The showdown in the Southeast Division features the Hawks looking to beat the Magic for the first time in three tries, while the Nuggets continue their East Coast swing against the Celtics. Out west, the Lakers begin a lengthy road trip in San Antonio seeking a seventh straight victory. Also, the Thunder tries to snap a two-game skid when they host the Rockets, who have beaten Oklahoma City three times this season.

Magic (50-21 SU, 39-31-1 ATS) at Hawks (45-25 SU, 41-29 ATS)

Time is running out for the Hawks to catch the Magic in the Southeast Division with Atlanta sitting 4 ½ games back with only 12 games remaining. What makes things even more difficult for the Hawks is the fact that the Magic own Mike Woodson's team with six straight victories in the series.

Orlando has won each of the first three meetings this season in pretty convincing fashion by dumping Atlanta by double-digits in each instance. The Magic is 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS the last 12 games, including five straight road victories. The lone hiccup came against the Bobcats with no rest back on March 14, falling to Charlotte, 96-89. Interestingly enough, the Magic is 6-5 SU against the Bobcats, Heat, and Wizards, but have owned the Hawks over the last two seasons.

The Hawks have been involved in plenty of cardiac finishes over the last week by winning two games in overtime and losing a pair of games by less than three points. Atlanta downed Charlotte and San Antonio at home, but the Hawks are just 3-6 ATS the last nine games at Philips Arena. The Hawks managed a cover in a road loss at Milwaukee, the fifth ATS win in the previous six games.

Atlanta has struggled to score points against Orlando, putting up 76, 81, and 86 points in the three losses this season. Taking it back to the end of last season, the Hawks tallied 82 and 87 points in the final two losses to the Magic. The 'under' has been drilled in each of the three meetings between these teams, but the Hawks are 6-1 to the 'over' the last seven at home.

Nuggets (47-23 SU, 31-34-5 ATS) at Celtics (45-25 SU, 29-39-2 ATS)

The Celtics return home from a 2-1 SU/ATS road swing to host a Nuggets squad that is in the midst of a five-game trip. Despite losing at Utah to wrap up the trip, Boston is 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven games. The Nuggets will be playing with no rest after Tuesday's contest at New York.

Boston is a team to back as of late after some struggles through the first four months to consistently cover numbers. The Celtics took care of a pair of Texas squads by knocking off the Rockets and Mavs on a back-to-back. Boston ran out of gas in the second half of a 110-97 loss at Utah, the first time in five games the C's have allowed over 100 points. Doc Rivers' squad has done a better job of covering at home, picking up three consecutive ATS wins at TD Banknorth Garden over the Pacers, Pistons, and Knicks.

The Nuggets have stumbled recently ATS, failing to cover four straight games. Maybe Denver is just trying to slug through the final two weeks of the regular season, but the Nuggets didn't cash during a three-game homestand against the Wizards, Hornets, and Bucks (each team played with no rest). What made things more perplexing for Denver was the fact the Nuggets were 6-2 ATS the previous eight at home against teams on the second of a back-to-back prior to those three ATS losses.

The Celtics ended a successful road trip after the All-Star Break on a losing note at Denver, 115-104. Boston had won the first three games, but fell behind early at the Pepsi Center by 18 after one quarter. The C's rallied back to tie the game in the second half, but the Nuggets made a late charge to cover as 4 ½-point favorites. Denver pulled off an upset at Boston last season, 94-85 as ten-point underdogs. That victory by the Nuggets ended a three-game skid in Beantown dating back to 2006.

Rockets (36-33 SU, 32-37 ATS) at Thunder (42-27 SU, 40-29 ATS)

Oklahoma City is quickly moving backwards in the Western Conference playoff race following consecutive defeats to Indiana and San Antonio. The Thunder is tied for the 6th spot in the West with the Spurs, but OKC loses the series tiebreaker with San Antonio after the Spurs took three of four. Now, the Thunder has to break on through against another Texas team they have had problems with - the Rockets.

Houston wraps up a three-game road trip following a win at New York and a loss at Chicago. The Rockets are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against the Thunder this season, but this is the first meeting since December 19. At the time, Houston was 16-11 while OKC sat at 13-13. Since that time, the Rockets have been playing under .500 basketball and the Thunder are 15 games above .500.

Oklahoma City's best role this season has been off a loss, despite coming off the setback to San Antonio. The Thunder owns a 20-6 ATS mark off a defeat, including a 9-4 SU/ATS ledger at home coming off a loss. Scott Brooks' team has failed to cover consecutive home games only once this season, coming back in January against the Hornets and Pacers (OKC beat Indiana, but the Pacers covered as nine-point 'dogs).

The Rockets have taken care of their business on the road against poor teams, while struggling against better competition. Houston is 3-1 SU/ATS the last four as road 'chalk,' but just 1-4 SU/ATS the previous five games when receiving points on the highway.

Lakers (52-18 SU, 29-38-3 ATS) at Spurs (42-27 SU, 36-32-1 ATS)

San Antonio continues a killer stretch of five games when the Spurs welcome the Lakers to the AT&T Center. The Champs begin a five-game road trip, looking to extend their winning streak to seven games.

The Spurs are coming off a split of a road back-to-back set at Atlanta and Oklahoma City, pushing San Antonio into a tie for the 6th spot in the Western Conference race with the Thunder. After Wednesday's game against the Lakers, the Spurs host Cleveland on Friday followed by a Sunday road meeting in Boston.

Gregg Popovich's club has won six straight at home while going 5-1 ATS since the All-Star Break at the AT&T Center. The last four wins at home have come against below .500 teams (Hornets, Clippers, Knicks, and Warriors), but each victory came by double-digits.

The Lakers are riding a nice hot streak, but motivation to blow out teams recently may not be there. L.A. is coming off consecutive non-covers at home against Minnesota and Washington as substantial favorites, while the largest margin of victory in this span is eight points.

The home teams have split the first two meetings this season with each team winning by double-digits. The Spurs took care of the Lakers, 105-85 on January 12 as 3 ½-point favorites. San Antonio shot 57% from the floor led by Tim Duncan's 25 points and 13 rebounds. Pau Gasol missed that loss with a hamstring injury, but returned for an early February home victory over the Spurs, 101-89. The Lakers easily cashed as 2 ½-point 'chalk,' while both meetings finished 'under' the total.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2010, 06:42 PM

Road teams the play in NIT Quarterfinals?

Last night two teams punched their tickets for a trip to New York next week and two more will do so tonight in the NIT. On Tuesday, both road underdogs covered the spread, with North Carolina winning outright. Is history due to repeat itself in Blacksburg and Champaign or will the home teams stand their ground and get ready to take a bite out of the Big Apple?

Rhode Island (25-9, 11-17-2 ATS) may have worn their road uniforms this month; however they haven’t visited enemy territory in awhile. The Rams haven’t played a true road game since Mar. 6 at Massachusetts, losing 69-67 as 7.5-point favorites. In fact, Rhode Island hasn’t won a road game period, last doing so on Ground Hogs Day at LaSalle. The Rams are 24-12 ATS in non-conference contests the last three years and could use another hot shooting night from Delroy James, who pumped in a career-high 34 points against Nevada two nights ago, to help Rhode Island advance in 85-83 thriller. They are only 2-9 ATS after scoring 80 or more points this season.

Virginia Tech (25-8, 14-12-1 ATS) also had a nail-biter Monday night, finding a way to knock off Connecticut 65-63. The Hokies won in spite of Malcolm Delaney scoring six points on 2-14 shooting. Delaney still found a way to contribute with nine assists.

Sportsbook.com has Virginia Tech as six-point favorite with total of 143 and the Hokies are 13-4 ATS off a close home win by three points or less, while the Rams are 2-8 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or points after 15 or more games this season. This first NIT quarterfinal is on ESPN2 at 7 Eastern with Rhode Island 11-0 UNDER against defensive teams surrendering 42 percent or less shooting percentage past the midway point of the regular season.

Dayton (21-12, 15-15-1 ATS) had an undistinguished regular season, finishing eighth in the A-10 and being bounced in the quarterfinals of the league tourney by Xavier. The Flyers can earn team redemption by winning tonight and moving on to NIT semis with upset of Illinois (21-14, 14-17-2 ATS). Dayton has played extremely well in this tournament, with a 20-point win over Illinois State and taking it to in-state partner Cincinnati 81-66 on their floor. The Flyers have locked up opponents with stifling defense, holding last two to 33.3 percent from the field. However, they are 5-18 ATS playing their second road game in three days.

Illinois was thought to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but they lost five of their last six regular season games and had two chances to knock off Ohio State in Big Ten tourney and failed to do so. Coach Bruce Weber’s squad has put aside that disappointment and is 40 minutes from making trip to Madison Square Garden, winning three of last four and not losing against the spread in those contests (3-0-1 ATS). The Fighting Illini’s win against Kent State was impressive (75-58) and they are 29-13 ATS at home off a home win by 10 points or more.

Dayton is a three-point underdog for this 9:00 Eastern contest on “the deuce” and is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2010, 06:43 PM

Denver visits Boston as underdog

The Boston Celtics faced some of the top teams in the Western Conference on their recent road trip. They return home to face another. The Celtics begin a season-high six-game homestand Wednesday when they take on the Denver Nuggets, who will be without coach George Karl for a while as they try to maintain the No. 2 seed in the West.

Boston (45-25, 29-39-2 ATS) is closing in on a third straight Atlantic Division title and battling Atlanta for one of the top three seeds in the Eastern Conference. It returns home after a successful road trip, which included wins over Houston and Dallas. The Celtics almost completed a sweep of the stretch before giving up a 12-point first half lead in a 110-97 loss to Utah on Monday, which snapped a four-game winning streak.

Boston was ahead by five after the first half, but Utah went on a 9-0 run to start the third quarter and took control by outscoring the Celtics 33-19 in the period. Paul Pierce also cooled off after averaging 28.0 points in the previous three games. He shot 3 for 11 from the field, finishing with 11 points and six rebounds.

"We were kind of reacting to everything they were doing and then before you know it we were down," said Ray Allen, who scored 15 points. Boston is 12-22 ATS after playing a road game this season.

It was the first time in five games the Celtics allowed an opponent to reach 100 points. They have the second-best scoring defense in the NBA, holding opponents to 94.4 points per game. Boston also struggled to contain the Nuggets the last time the two met. Denver (47-24, 32-35-4 ATS) shot 51.3 percent in the 114-105 victory Feb. 21.
While the Celtics will try to get their defense back on track, they will also be looking to improve on some inconsistencies at home. They are 21-12 at TD Garden (10-22-1 ATS) this season after going 35-6 in 2008-09.

It won't be easy though. Boston's first five games of this homestand are against Western Conference teams before it closes the stretch against East-leading Cleveland on April 4. The Celtics have won their last three games at home and eight of 12 (4-7-1 ATS).

Denver, meanwhile, comes in trying to avoid a third consecutive loss after falling 109-104 to the Knicks on Tuesday. It was the eighth straight game Adrian Dantley coached the Nuggets, who announced that George Karl will not return until April as he continues treatment for throat cancer. Denver is 5-3 in those games.

Carmelo Anthony scored 36 points and Chauncey Billups had 25, but the Nuggets allowed the Knicks to close the third quarter on an 11-0 run and never recovered.
It was a tough way to open a five-game road trip for the Nuggets, especially since it now becomes more difficult. Their next four opponents are playoff contenders, and they won't face a team with a losing record until a home game against the Los Angeles Clippers on April 3. In addition, Denver is just 6-16 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days this season.

"I think this is probably our most disappointing loss this season because it just means so much," Billups said.

Denver is tied with Dallas for the No. 2 seed in the West, and it has a one-game lead over Utah in the Northwest. Monday's loss dropped the Nuggets below .500 on the road to 17-18 (15-17-3 ATS).

Boston opened as four point favorite, went to five and has returned to original number at Sportsbook.com with steady total of 206. Besides its deplorable home spread record, the Celtics are also 1-11 ATS on their own floor revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons. Coach Doc Rivers squad is 8-1 OVER in home games after allowing 105 points or more this year. Denver seems perfectly-suited for its role this evening with an 8-0 spread mark as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and is 22-8 UNDER in that same price range.

This contest has a 7:05 Eastern time start on ESPN with Boston 10-3 and 8-5 ATS when the Nuggets pay a visit to Bean Town.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2010, 06:49 PM

Wednesday, March 24Game Score Status Pick Amount

Rhode Island - 7:00 PM ET Rhode Island +6.5 300
Virginia Tech - Over 142.5 300

Boston U - 7:00 PM ET Boston U +11.5 500 ( DOG POD )
VCU - Under 149 500

Creighton - 8:00 PM ET Missouri St. -6.5 500
Missouri St. - Under 137.5 300

Dayton - 9:00 PM ET Illinois -3 500 ( POD )
Illinois - Over 131 500

Princeton - 9:00 PM ET Princeton +4 500 ( IVY POD )
Saint Louis - Under 105 500 ( TOTAL POD )

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Wednesday, March 24Game Score Status Pick Amount

Orlando - 7:00 PM ET Atlanta -1 500
Atlanta - Under 196 500

Denver - 7:00 PM ET Boston -4.5 400
Boston - Under 205.5 400

Minnesota - 7:00 PM ET Minnesota +9.5 500 ( NBA DOG )
Charlotte - Under 196.5 300

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -8.5 300
Indiana - Over 199.5 300

Utah - 7:00 PM ET Utah -3.5 500 ( NBA POD )
Toronto - Under 214.5 500

Sacramento - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey +1.5 500
New Jersey - Over 196 500

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Cleveland -5.5 500
New Orleans - Over 201 300

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -8 500
Oklahoma City - Over 205.5 500

L.A. Lakers - 9:30 PM ET San Antonio -1 500 ( POD )
San Antonio - Over 196 500

Memphis - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +1 500
Golden State - Over 235.5 500 ( NBA TOTAL )

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Wednesday, March 24Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Islanders - 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders +132 500
NY Rangers - Under 5.5 500

Montreal - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo -159 500
Buffalo - Under 5.5 500

St. Louis - 7:30 PM ET St. Louis +164 500 ( NHL DOG )
Detroit - Over 5.5 500 ( NHL TOTAL )

Los Angeles - 9:00 PM ET Los Angeles +112 500
Colorado - Under 5.5 500

Good Luck Gang !

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2010, 07:37 PM

Dayton (22-12) at Illinois (21-14)

DATE & TIME: Wednesday, March 24th, 9:00 p.m. (et).

FACTS & STATS: Site: Assembly Hall (16,618) -- Champaign, Illinois. Television: ESPN2. NIT Record: Dayton 37-20, Illinois 7-3. Series Record: Illinois leads, 4-2.

GAME NOTES: The Dayton Flyers hit the road yet again tonight as they aim to take care of the Illinois Fighting Illini in quarterfinal-round action of the 2010 NIT at Assembly Hall in Champaign.

With a trip to New York City on the line, third-seeded Dayton is again on the road for the second time in three days. After hosting Illinois State and coming up with a 63-42 beating of the Redbirds last week, the Flyers went to Cincinnati on Monday night and pulled off a convincing 81-66 victory at Fifth Third Arena. The win was somewhat surprising given that the Bearcats had an overwhelming record of 38-11 at home versus Dayton over the years.

With the decision Dayton, which won this event back in both 1962 and 1968, is now 37-20 in 22 appearances.

As for the top-seeded Illini, a group that last played in this tournament in 1996 and finished as high as third back in 1980, they've bounced back from a disappointing finish to the regular season to collect a pair of postseason wins. Last week, the team took on Stony Brook in New York, only because Assembly Hall had already booked Cirque du Soleil for the night, and dismissed the Seawolves in a 76-66 final. Monday night saw Illinois move to 7-3 in the tournament all-time with a 75-58 rout of Kent State at home.

In terms of the all-time series between these two schools on the hardwood, the Illini own a 4-2 advantage. In a relationship that began back in 1952 at Chicago Stadium, the most recent meeting took place at Sullivan Arena in Alaska as part of the 1992 Great Alaska Shootout, with Illinois posting an 86-76 overtime victory. In 1982, the Flyers captured a 61-58 win in this same building as part of that year's NIT.

The winner of this meeting will head to New York City and Madison Square Garden for the semifinals against Ole Miss, which defeated Texas Tech last night by a final of 90-87 in double-overtime at C.M. Tad Smith Coliseum.

Dayton shot a mere 1-of-11 behind the three-point line in the second half on Monday night, but that was still better than the Bearcats who connected on only one of their 14 chances out on the perimeter, en route to the home loss in Cincinnati. The Flyers spread the wealth as four scored in double figures, led by Marcus Johnson with his 16 points and seven rebounds, adding four of the squad's 15 assists as well. Rob Lowery tacked on 13 points in just 19 minutes off the bench, followed by Chris Wright and Paul Williams with 11 points apiece as well. Marcus Johnson has been the leading scorer for the group in three of the last four games, yet his is still averaging just 8.8 ppg over the course of his 33 appearances this season. At the top of the scoring list is Wright with his 13.9 ppg to go along with his team-best 7.1 rpg as well, followed by Chris Johnson with 11.3 ppg and 6.8 rpg. Dayton's offense is built on balance as the team generates just under 70 ppg, because really it is the defense that gets the job done on a regular basis by limiting opponents to just 61.9 ppg.

Tied at 31-31 at the break, Illinois turned up the pressure in the second half with an 18-7 run coming out of the locker room and the Golden Flashes never recovered. Demetri McCamey logged a double-double consisting of 15 points and 10 of the team's 19 assists, while Mike Davis had one of his own as he tallied 16 points and ripped down 16 boards to pace the program in that department. Mike Tisdale hit on 7-of-9 shots from the floor as he posted a team-high 17 points to go along with his seven rebounds and game-high four blocked shots. Illinois fought off a mere 3-of-16 shooting behind the three-point line by turning the ball over just seven times on the night. McCamey leads a balanced scoring offense that is generating 70.7 ppg with his 15.1 ppg, stemming from his 103-of-143 at the free-throw line. Perhaps more important is the fact that McCamey is one of the top passers in the entire nation this year with his 244 assists over the course of 35 games. Just as impressive is knowing that he has an assist-to-turnover margin of better than 2-to-1 and that has fueled the Illinois success. Tisdale (12.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), when not getting into foul trouble, is one of the recipients of many of McCamey's efforts, while Davis (10.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg) has learned to work the paint like so few in the Big Ten Conference.

Illinois may start off slow, but having played in so many pressure-packed games in the Big Ten is all that it takes to teach a group like the Fighting Illini how to come back.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2010, 07:50 PM

Trend Report - Wednesday

Timberwolves at Bobcats – The Bobcats are 15-0-1 ATS (12.8 ppg) since March 04, 2008 off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Bobcats are 9-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since April 14, 2007 as a favorite after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field.

76ers at Bucks – The Sixers are 0-9 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since February 17, 2009 on the road after a game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Bucks are 10-0 ATS (6.1 ppg) since December 02, 2009 after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Bucks are 0-6-1 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since January 30, 2008 versus the 76ers.

Nuggets at Celtics – The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since December 03, 2005 with no rest after a loss in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Celtics are 0-9 ATS (-4.1 ppg) since December 06, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since March 18, 2009 off a road loss in which they led by 10+ points.

Magic at Hawks – The Magic are 0-8 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since November 28, 2009 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Hawks are 7-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since December 10, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since January 01, 2010 with at least one day of rest off a loss in which they led by 10+ points.

Cavaliers at Hornets – The Hornets are 0-10 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since April 03, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Hornets are 8-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since January 21, 2009 after a game at home in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Hornets are 7-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since January 23, 2008 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit home win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

Kings at Nets – The Kings are 0-6 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since April 07, 2009 after a home loss in which their DPA was negative. The Nets are 0-7-1 ATS (-7.0 ppg) since February 19, 2010 at home when facing a team they lost to as a dog in their previous same-season match-up.

Wizards at Pacers – The Wizards are 0-7 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since December 03, 1995 on the road after a game at home in which they had at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 03, 2007 with no rest after a loss in which they had more turnovers than assists. The Pacers are 0-10-1 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since March 09, 2003 with no rest when their opponent is off an overtime game.

Jazz at Raptors – The Jazz are 11-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since March 17, 2008 as a favorite when facing a non-conference team they beat in their first match-up of the season. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS (6.4 ppg) since November 10, 2008 after a road win in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.

Lakers at Spurs – The Lakers are 0-11 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since May 05, 2003 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Spurs are 0-6 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since January 11, 2009 at home when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss. The Spurs are 0-6 ATS (-12.2 ppg) since April 23, 2009 when less than 50% of their baskets were assisted for two straight games.

Rockets at Thunder – The Thunder are 9-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since November 22, 2008 after a game at home in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Thunder are 8-0 ATS (18.8 ppg) since April 15, 2009 after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

Grizzlies at Warriors – The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since December 28, 2001 after a double digit win in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (11.5 ppg) since January 16, 2009 at home after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since February 10, 2010 at home after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

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