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**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2010, 11:33 AM

Tuesday's NIT Action

Two tickets to New York City are on the line tonight when four teams square off in the NIT Quarterfinals. The winners will advance to the semifinals, which will be played at Madison Square Garden next Tuesday and then the championship two days later on Apr. 1.
Let’s take a closer look.

Texas Tech (19-15 SU, 16-12 ATS) at Mississippi (23-10 SU, 18-10 ATS)

The Rebels from Oxford could be called the Runnin’ Rebels these days, especially when you look at their two victories in the NIT. Mississippi blasted Troy (84-65) in the first round and then ran past Memphis (90-81) in the second round. The club covered both games as home favorites and the total went 1-1, but the game against the Trojans just slipped ‘under’ the closing total of 150.

Texas Tech wasn’t expected to get out of the first round by the oddsmakers but the team ripped Seton Hall 87-69 as a nine-point underdog. The game got ugly and eventually led to the firing of the Hall’s head coach Bobby Gonzalez. The second round wasn’t as easy for the Red Raiders, who hung on to beat a feisty Jacksonville team 69-64 form Lubbock. T-Tech failed to cover as an 8 ½-point ‘chalk’ and the closing total of 149 ½ was never threatened.

The books are expecting a shootout in Oxford tonight, with the total being listed between 156 and 157. The Rebels have been installed as nine-point favorites over the Red Raiders.

Ole Miss has four starters averaging at least nine points per game, and is led by point guard Chris Warren. He didn’t shoot well (25%) in the win over Memphis, but he still posted 16 points and added seven assists.

The Rebels have gone 14-4 SU and 7-6-1 ATS at home this season and the four losses came to SEC opponents, plus all were by seven points or less. Texas Tech has struggled to a 5-10 SU record outside of Lubbock this season, but they’ve saved some face with an 8-6 ATS mark.

The winner of this game will meet the winner of Illinois and Dayton in the semifinals from N.Y.

North Carolina (18-16 SU, 11-21 ATS) at Alabama-Birmingham (25-8 SU, 17-13 ATS)

Roy Williams and the Tar Heels suddenly have a chance to make something out of nothing after enduring a terrible season for the premier program. North Carolina stopped William & Mary (80-72) at home in the first round before notching a solid victory over Mississippi State (76-74) in Hattiesburg on Saturday. While those games were high-scoring affairs, tonight’s battle should come at a much slower pace against UAB.

The Blazers reached this point by posting double-digit victories over Coastal Carolina (65-49) and N.C. State (72-52) in the first two rounds. UAB’s defense has been great all year and according to VegasInsider.com handicapper Matt Fargo, it should be a big difference tonight.

He said, “UAB forces close to 14 turnovers per game and even better it is ranked 99th in turnover percentage. Playing at home gives it an even greater edge. The Blazers carry a 25-8 record into Tuesday’s game against the Tar Heels at Bartow Arena and even though the opponent is in a huge down year, getting up for the defending National Champions will not be a problem. A packed house is expected for the game with North Carolina, and so is emotion not generally associated with the NIT. The Blazers lost only three games at home this season with one of those coming in overtime to eventual regular season champion UTEP. The résumé includes double-digit home wins over Cincinnati and Butler.”

“North Carolina is just 2-10 ATS this season when playing teams that allow 64 or fewer PPG. That is mainly because the North Carolina offense has been horrid this season. Prior to William & Mary, it had gone 18 straight games without scoring 80 points and it went the entire conference season without putting up 80 points, the first time ever that has happened. It will look like an NCAA Tournament home game tonight in Birmingham.”

Fargo is right about UNC’s inability to score and it’s hurt the team considerably on the road. The ‘Heels are 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS on the road this season, two of those coming in conference play.

UAB opened as a four-point favorite and has already spiked up to five at a few offshore outfits. The total is hovering between 136 and 137.

If UNC survives, they could meet Virginia Tech in the NIT semifinals next Tuesday. The Hokies will meet Rhode Island tomorrow for an opportunity to advance.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2010, 02:44 PM

Two NIT teams headed to Big Apple

Tonight, half the field for the National Invitational Tournament semi-finals will be set, with two quarterfinal games to be played. Both matchups will have a distinctly southern flavor, played in Oxford, MS and Birmingham, AL. Each of the home teams will be favored to win and advance to New York next week.

Mississippi (23-10, 18-10-1 ATS), like many teams that had NCAA Tournaments dreams could have sulked and gone thru the motions and been bounced out of the NIT. But they have not and credit goes to coach Andy Kennedy and the Rebels players, who are playing some of their best basketball of the season.

"We're a couple of bounces away from being in the other tournament," Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy said. "But, this team has won six of the last seven games (6-1 ATS) and has an opportunity to keep playing with a lot of stake."

Mississippi is 17-6 ATS in home non-conference games the last several years and now playing with something at stake, this helps the Rebels program for next season, with many of the principle players returning, including Terrico White who has been the star with 48 points in two tournament games. Ole Miss is a nine-point favorite according to Bookmaker.com with a total of 156.5 and they are 9-2 ATS off a home win this season.

Texas Tech (19-15, 16-12 ATS) was 4-12 in the Big 12 this season, losing their last seven in a row (2-5 ATS) in the conference. In the Big 12 Tourney, the Red Raiders extracted revenge on Colorado and was very competitive with Kansas before falling 80-68 (possibly a sign for the Jayhawks?). This earned Texas Tech a berth in the NIT and they too have made the most of it winning twice.

Contributions are coming from many sources like Brad Reese and frontliners Darko Cohadarevic and D'Walyn Roberts, who have steadier in what they deliver. The Red Raiders held off Jacksonville in their last outing and are 5-17 ATS in road games after a win by six points or less.

The first quarterfinal is on ESPN at 7:00 Eastern with Texas Tech 13-4 OVER away from home after playing a game as favorite.

Immediately following, UAB (25-8, 17-14 ATS) will host North Carolina (18-16, 11-20-1 ATS). The Blazers have already beaten one ACC team in this event, terminating N.C. State 72-52 in last contest. But folks in Birmingham are really excited North Carolina came from behind to beat Mississippi State to force this matchup.

“This is cool to know they won the national championship just a year ago, and now they're coming to little ol' Birmingham to play UAB," guard Aaron Johnson told the Birmingham News. "We're going to be even more pumped because these are the games we dream about -- the Dukes, and North Carolinas and Kansas."

UAB primary strength is its frontcourt players, which also is North Carolina’s main weapon. The Blazers play strong defense, holding teams to 40.7 percent shooting and are 14-3 and 9-5 ATS at home, where a sell-out is expected and so is raucous environment. It's going to be crazy," Coach Mike Davis said. "It's probably going to be the most amazing thing ever from a crowd standpoint."

This isn’t vintage Tar Heels team UAB is going to face (otherwise why would they be in the NIT), however it is one that is trying to ease the stigma of a disappointing season. Coach Roy Williams’ club has shown improvement in recent games. Cutting down turnovers (31 in last three games compared to season average of 15 per contest) and getting real production from freshman John Henson and sophomore Tyler Zeller has made UNC a much better team. Coach Williams hopes Zeller can go after suffering concussion against Mississippi State.

The Tar Heels are 4.5-point underdogs and consecutive road wins as the hunted team in the Carolina blue uniforms would be a real boost for a club that is 4-11 and 5-9 ATS as visitors. North Carolina is 2-10 ATS against opponents allowing 64 or fewer points this season; however UAB is just 1-8 ATS after covering three of their last four against the spread.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2010, 02:45 PM

Key NBA Numbers for Tonight

With only four games on the NBA slate, the handicapping is pretty simple. Find the right numbers that enable one to further build that bankroll. Where in the world are the correct numbers, right here at *******.

Charlotte (-7, 184) at Washington

The Bobcats have lost three of four and are coming off disgusting performance against Miami with 71 total points, shooting a season-low 29.2 percent. Right now Washington is curing everyone’s woes on an 11-game losing streak. Charlotte is 30-13 ATS after scoring 80 points or less and they only allowed 77 to the Heat. The Bobcats are very positive 19-4 ATS after allowing 85 points or less. Oddsmakers like those that Bookmaker.com know what bettors might be thinking about the Wizards, adding points to their opponents and Washington is 17-5 ATS after seven or more consecutive losses, for better or for worse.

Denver (-5.5, 217.5) at New York

The Nuggets embark on five game road excursion starting in the asphalt jungle and are 28-11 ATS after consecutive home games. Denver has enjoyed success against Atlantic Division teams and is 19-8 ATS against them the last three seasons. It’s another sorry state of affairs in New York for the Knicks at 25-45. They played Denver to the end back on Nov. 27, losing in the Mile High City 128-125 as 12.5-point underdogs. Regrettably, New York is 7-19 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

Indiana (+4, 205) at Detroit

It’s a Central Division also-ran showdown. Both teams season will be over in about three weeks and Detroit seems more anxious for that to occur having lost five in a row and not covering once. The Pistons are 7-17 ATS after three or more consecutive losses this season. Indiana at least is showing pride, having won three of previous four and cover the spread eight of last nine (five in a row). Detroit might be the favorite, but they have lost four straight to the Pacers and are 6-17 ATS playing into triple revenge.

L.A. Clippers (+9.5, 207) at Dallas

Is there a more confounding NBA division leader than Dallas? The Mavericks have fallen three of last four times, including losses to beatable teams like New York and New Orleans (though they NEVER win at the Hornets). Dallas is good-sized home favorite in spite of unfathomable 8-27 ATS record in Big D and winning by a miniscule 1.5 points per game. The number from the line maker just tells you how sorry the Clippers are. ESPN’s Bill Simmon’s favorite team is 2-13 ATS against Southwest Division opponents this year.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2010, 02:46 PM

NBA schedules affect bettor’s intuition

Roughly three weeks remain in the NBA regular season and sports bettors are racking their brains trying to come up with the right answers to pick winners. The playoff chase is in high gear and many teams are scrambling for better positions or are trying to round their game into top form.

Among the many factors a NBA bettor has to take into consideration is scheduling, especially at crunch time late in the season. Every day this time of the season, nearly half the games do not have an overnight line due to one injury or another from a myriad of teams and if they are forced to play back to-back games or three in four days with travel involved, determining a winner is just that much more complicated.

While one is left to ponder these unfriendly conditions, here is what the schedule looks like for many of the contenders in each conference.

Western Conference Shoot-Out

At least mathematically, 10 teams in the West still have a chance to secure a playoff spot and as this article was posted, each of them have a winning record in their previous 10 outings, proving what is at stake for all of them.

Unless the Los Angeles Lakers come down with an epidemic, they are fairly secure to wrap up the top slot out West. The second position is like the smog in L.A., not quite as clear. Denver and Dallas are going toe to toe, trying not only to keep teams from hunting them down in their own divisions, but seeking the higher seed should they meet possibly in the West semi-finals with crucial home court advantage at stake.

Both teams have seven road games left and the Mavericks have the edge in that department with 22-12 mark and brilliant 21-13 ATS record as visitors. Besides their exceptional road radiance, Dallas will be either favored or a short underdog in five of those contests.

Denver on the other hand is .500 on the road and 15-16-3 ATS in traveling uniforms. This week they open a five game road trip, visiting rugged outposts like Boston, Orlando and finishing up in Big D, possibly a real deciding matchup. The Nuggets also have a demanding close to the year- @Oklahoma City, home to the Lakers, San Antonio and Memphis and @Phoenix.

Positions four-thru eight will be not only challenge each West contender, but the wits of those putting down the cash to bet the correct side. Three teams in particular will have to literally take it one game at a time and will not have much time to do so. San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Houston all have a heavy workload with 14 games in just over three weeks. The Thunder have the most games on their own floor with eight and is 22-11 and 18-15 ATS, winning by 5.7 points per contest at the Ford Center. OKC will have to earn their postseason spot even at home, facing all contenders except for Minnesota on Apr. 4.

The Spurs have been scorching the last few weeks even without Tony Parker in the lineup. George Hill has proven his value at the point guard and they will need him and the other veterans like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to overcome a hellacious close to the year. The eight road games is hard enough (16-16, 14-18 ATS) at places like Boston, the Lakers, Phoenix, Denver and Dallas. But even when they are back home, Kobe and company pays a visit as does Cleveland and Orlando. If San Antonio doesn’t slip to eighth seed, it would appear to be a miracle, even with how well they have been executing.

Houston looks like a longshot to make the playoffs, down four games in the loss column to Portland and having eight remaining road games, all in groups of two or three. The Rockets are 8-14 as road dogs (10-12 ATS) and need a 11-3 close to even give themselves a chance.

Utah and Phoenix have both been playing solid basketball for some time and are seeking the all important first round home series as a fourth seed. The Suns have the more arduous journey with eight road games in final 12 contests, which includes a five-game trip mostly thru the Midwest. Steve Nash and the gang should at least show a profit as visitors, as they are 19-14 away from the desert, losing by less than a point a game (-0.8).

Utah’s slate is similar to the Suns, with one less roadie and one more in Salt Lake City. The Jazz travels should include being a road favorite in at least five of their stops and they will be favored in all five contests at EnergySolutions Arena.

Eastern Conference battle and positioning

The Boston Celtics have endured a great deal of criticism this season. This team is loaded with veterans, some believe a little too old. The C’s haven’t shown a great deal of heart or are just lacking in talent against the upper echelon clubs since the calendar turned to 2010. From wagering perspective their home record is their most disconcerting aspect at 21-12 and abysmal 10-22-1 spread mark. Eight of their final 13 contests are at TD Banknorth Garden and the Celtics better take advantage or they could fall to fourth seed, which would mean facing Cleveland in East semis.

Barring injuries or an unforeseen major collapse, the Milwaukee Bucks are going to back to the playoffs. The Milwaukee front office deserves a great deal of credit, adding veterans with young players to have this club in the fifth slot in the East, thanks to 14-3 sprint since Feb.19, with 12-3-2 ATS mark. The Bucks can generate further momentum by playing nine of their final 14 games at the Bradley Center where they are 23-9 and 20-11-1 ATS.

The Chicago Bulls still have a chance, but they have fallen out of favor with their 1-10 slide like Sandra Bullock’s husband. That leaves three teams fighting to avoid first round matchup with LeBron James and the fellas.
Miami, Charlotte and Toronto are bunched like bananas and the Bobcats should have the edge. Charlotte has the most remaining home games, eight of last 13, where they are 25-8 and 19-14 ATS. At present, only two of those contests will be against teams with winning records.

The Raptors are playing the poorest of the trio and are equal parts home and away for their remaining conflicts. Toronto could well be saddled with facing Cleveland, because they are the worst defensive team in points surrendered in the East.

The Heat’s biggest strength down the stretch is Dwayne Wade. Miami has eight road games left on their plate (only five at home), which sounds daunting until you take a closer look. Of those, only Milwaukee has a winning record. That leaves it up to Heat players to take grab the proverbial bull by the horns and finish sixth, thus missing the Cavs and Orlando in the opening round of the postseason. Miami is 15-18 on the road with 17-16 ATS record.

This is a great time for all NBA bettors to take stock of each contending team’s situation and think in advance how they season may play out when it comes to the schedule.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2010, 02:50 PM

North Carolina (18-16) at U-A-B (25-8)

DATE & TIME: Tuesday, March 23rd, 9:00 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Bartow Arena (8,500) -- Birmingham, Alabama. Television: ESPN. NIT Record: North Carolina 11-4, UAB 14-10. Series Record: North Carolina leads, 1-0.

GAME NOTES: The defending national champion North Carolina Tar Heels are still alive in the postseason, albeit the NIT, as they invade Bartow Arena this evening for quarterfinal action against the UAB Blazers. The winner of this game will move on to New York City to take on either Virginia Tech or Rhode Island in the semifinals.

Roy Williams' squad struggled greatly this season with consistency. The team posted big wins over the likes of Ohio State and Michigan State early in the year, but faltered in the second half, especially in ACC action (5-11) and comes into this contest with a meager 18-16 overall mark. The team has rallied in this event, with wins over William & Mary (80-72) and Mississippi State (76-74). The fourth-seeded Tar Heels are making their sixth appearance in the NIT and are 11-4 all-time in this event, including winning the whole thing in 1971.

The second-seeded Blazers would like nothing more than to end the defending national champs' season. UAB has had a tremendously successful campaign thus far, sporting 25 victories in all. Two of this wins have come in this event, with UAB making light work of both Coastal Carolina (65-49) and NC State (75-52). The Blazers are participating in their 11th NIT, with a 14-10 record in this tournament, advancing to the NIT semifinals twice in 1989 and 1993.

This is just the second meeting between these two programs. North Carolina won the only other meeting, a 77-59 decision in NCAA Tournament play in 1986.

The Tar Heels have had a down year by Chapel Hill standards, but the team remains a dangerous offensive squad, with the ability to score in bunches. UNC comes into this quarterfinal round averaging a solid 75.4 ppg, getting it done on .446 shooting. The loss of forward Ed Davis (13.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg) to a foot injury a couple of weeks ago has definitely caused some problems for UNC in the paint. Deon Thompson (13.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Tyler Zeller (9.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg) have tried to fill the void. Swingman Will Graves (9.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg) can score both inside and out (team-high 65 three-pointers). The backcourt play is anchored by Larry Drew II (8.3 ppg, 203 assists) and Marcus Ginyard (8.1 ppg). It was a Graves' three-pointer with about 30 seconds remaining that propelled the Tar Heels into the quarterfinals, with a two-point win at Mississippi State last weekend. Graves finished 6-of-10 from the floor, including hitting four three-pointers to lead the team with 17 points. John Henson added 12 points and eight rebounds to the cause, as UNC shot a solid .485 from the floor in Starkville.

The Blazers made light work of the Wolfpack in last weekend's second-round action, as UAB converted just over 50 percent of its shots (26-of-51). The first half told the tale for the Blazers, who took a 20-point lead into the break and never looked back. Elijah Millsap was once again unstoppable for UAB, finishing with a double-double of 27 points and 12 rebounds. Howard Crawford added 13 points in support, while the Blazers turned up the heat defensively as well. UAB limited NC State to only .358 shooting, including a mere 3-of-11 from behind the arc. The 6-6 Millsap is the key to everything for UAB, coming into this game leading the team in scoring (16.0 ppg), rebounding (9.6 rpg) and steals (56). Crawford is next in the scoring column at 12.0 ppg, while Jamarr Sanders rounds out the top threats with 10.2 ppg. Not considered an offensive juggernaut by any stretch, UAB is averaging a modest 67.3 ppg, but is yielding a mere 60.4.

The Blazers get the Tar Heels in Birmingham and although UNC probably has something to prove, the lack of a big time interior presence may allow Millsap to dominate in the paint, pushing the hometown team into the semifinals.

**Spark** · 03-23-2010, 04:26 PM

Good luck bum

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2010, 05:30 PM

Tuesday, March 23Game Score Status Pick Amount

Charlotte - 7:00 PM ET Washington +6.5 500
Washington - Over 182.5 500

Indiana - 7:30 PM ET Indiana +4 500 ( POD )
Detroit - Under 207 500

Denver - 7:30 PM ET Denver -6.5 500
New York - Over 219.5 500 ( NBA TOTAL )

L.A. Clippers - 8:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers +9.5 500
Dallas - Over 207 500

---------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, March 23Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida - 7:00 PM ET Toronto -148 500
Toronto - Under 5.5 500

Columbus - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey -205 500
New Jersey - Over 5.5 500

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Atlanta +105 500
Atlanta - Under 5.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia +105 500 ( POD )
Ottawa - Under 5.5 500

Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Carolina +102 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5.5 500

Dallas - 8:00 PM ET Nashville -160 500
Nashville - Under 5.5 500

San Jose - 8:00 PM ET San Jose -125 500
Minnesota - Under 5.5 500

Phoenix - 8:30 PM ET Phoenix +165 500 ( NHL DOG )
Chicago - Over 5.5 500

Anaheim - 9:00 PM ET Anaheim +134 500 ( NHL DOG )
Calgary - Over 5.5 500

Vancouver - 9:00 PM ET Edmonton +214 500
Edmonton - Over 5.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, March 23Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas Tech - 7:00 PM ET Texas Tech +9 500 ( POD DOG )
Mississippi - Under 156.5 500 ( POD TOTAL )

North Carolina - 9:00 PM ET UAB -4.5 500
UAB - Over 136.5 500

Good Luck All !

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2010, 06:18 PM

Trend Report - Tuesday

Nuggets at Knicks – The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS (5.5 ppg) since February 23, 2004 after a loss in which they had at least 20 offensive rebounds. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS (6.1 ppg) since March 23, 2009 when playing the first game of at least a three game road trip. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since February 27, 2009 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field.

Clippers at Mavericks – The Clippers are 6-0 ATS (17.4 ppg) since November 18, 2002 on the road after a home loss in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The League is 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since February 23, 2008 as a favorite with no rest after a double digit loss in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Mavericks are 0-7-1 ATS (-15.4 ppg) since February 12, 2003 with no rest after a game on the road in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS (6.1 ppg) since April 02, 2006 when they allowed revenge in each of their last two games.

Pacers at Pistons – The Pacers are 7-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since October 29, 2008 versus the Pistons. The Pacers are 7-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since January 22, 2010 when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games. The Pistons are 0-8-1 ATS (-4.8 ppg) since December 19, 2008 when their DPS was minus 15 points or less in their previous game. The Pistons are 0-7-1 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since January 17, 2009 at home when they have lost and failed to covered their last four games.

Bobcats at Wizards – The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS (6.1 ppg) since April 10, 2005 on the road after a loss in which they shot less than 35% from the field. The Wizards are 0-12 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since February 03, 1997 after playing on the road against the Lakers. The Wizards are 6-0 ATS (6.8 ppg) since January 06, 2008 after a game on the road in which they had at least ten more assists than in the game before.

**Sirporkie** · 03-23-2010, 07:19 PM

GL star

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2010, 08:40 PM

Thanks Sir Porkie......nights like this the linemaker really has the edge on us.........i'd rather see a whole slew of games.....owell maybe we know more then he does....NOT....

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2010, 10:28 PM

OMG....i leave to go to the store thinking Tech and the Under was a lock.....only to get screwed by double OT right now.....SHIT

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