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**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2010, 12:30 PM

NIT Update

Gamblers have 12 games in three different tournaments tonight, including a Big East/ACC showdown between Virginia Tech and UConn in Blacksburg. Most books are listing the Hokies as four-point home favorites with a total of 136. Bettors can take the Huskies to win outright for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

Seth Greenberg’s team has won 16 of its 17 home games, compiling a 6-6 spread record in Blacksburg. Meanwhile, Jim Calhoun’s squad has lost four of its last five games, going winless ATS. In addition, UConn has mostly looked disinterested and its nail-biting two-point home win over Northeastern was no exception.

The ‘under’ is on an 8-3 run for the Huskies, while the ‘over’ has hit at a 13-10 overall clip for the Hokies.

ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Then at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, Cincinnati will play host to Dayton. LVSC opened the Bearcats as four-point favorites with a total of 131. As of early this morning, most betting shops had Cincy down to 3 ½ with the total in the 127-128 range. Gamblers can back the Flyers on the money line for a plus-145 payout (risk $100 to win $145).

Mick Cronin’s team has played well since the Big East Tournament. Cincy beat Rutgers and Louisville before losing to West Virginia on a buzzer beater off the backboard. Nevertheless, the Bearcats came out and took care of business in their NIT opener, besting Weber St. 76-62 as 9 ½-point home favorites. Deonta Vaughn led the winners with 16 points, seven assists and five rebounds.

The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run in Cincy games and is 17-11 overall for the Bearcats.

Dayton is mired in a 2-7-1 ATS slump, although it did hook up its backers in a 63-42 home win over Illinois St. as a 7 ½-point favorite in the first round of the NIT.

Tip-off is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

In other NIT action, most books are listing Rhode Island as a 7 ½-point home favorite vs. Nevada. This game will come off the board early at 6:00 p.m. ET. After winning at Stony Brook, Illinois will take on Kent St. as an eight-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 133 ½.

In Tuesday’s NIT quarterfinals, UAB will host North Carolina at Bartow Arena. The Tar Heels won Saturday at The Hump against Mississippi St. on Larry Drew II’s game winner over Jarvis Varnado, the NCAA’s all-time leader in blocked shots. Meanwhile, the Blazers rolled to an easy home win over N.C. St.

Most spots have UAB as a four-point favorite with a total of 136.

In the other NIT quarterfinal showdown on Tuesday, Ole Miss will host Texas Tech as a rich nine-point home favorite. The Rebels beat Memphis and covered in Friday’s home game at the Tad Pad in Oxford.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2010, 02:21 PM

Dayton (21-12) at Cincinnati (19-15)

DATE & TIME: Monday, March 22nd, 9:00 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Fifth Third Arena (15,176) -- Cincinnati, Ohio. Television: ESPN. NIT Record: Dayton 36-20, Cincinnati 8-9. Series Record: Cincinnati leads, 59-30.

GAME NOTES: Dayton and Cincinnati will collide in an Interstate 75 battle, as the Bearcats host the Flyers in second-round action of the National Invitation Tournament at Fifth-Third Arena.

The Flyers opened the NIT with a convincing, 63-42 victory over Illinois State in the first round. Dayton, which is playing in its 22nd NIT, is now 36-20 all-time in this event. Dayton won this tournament in 1962 and 1968, and comes into this matchup with a solid 21-12 record on the season.

As for the Bearcats, this is their 10th appearance in the NIT, but the team is just 8-9 all-time in this event. Cincinnati pushed its season record to 19-15 overall with a 76-62 decision over Weber State in the first round.

This will be the 90th meeting between the two schools on the hardwood, and the Bearcats currently own a 59-30 edge over Dayton in the all-time series. Recently the Bearcats have dominated the series, winning 14 of the last 16 contests.

The winner of this contest will move into the quarterfinal round and will take on either Illinois or Kent State.

The Flyers have used a tenacious defensive approach on the season, as the squad is holding the opposition to just 61.7 ppg on a 39.6 percent shooting effort. Dayton flexed its defensive muscle once again in its first round win over Illinois State, as the Flyers held Illinois State to just 42 points on a 33.3 percent shooting effort. At the other end of the floor the Flyers shot 48.1 percent from the floor and used a solid effort from Chris Johnson, who scored 13 points, to go along with nine rebounds. Chris Wright added nine points in the win and also pulled down a team-best 11 rebounds. Wright has been the most consistent offensive player for Dayton, as the forward is posting 14.0 ppg, to go along with 7.2 rpg. As for Johnson, he is contributing 11.5 ppg and 6.8 rpg for Dayton, which as a whole is producing 69.5 ppg.

The Bearcats were a tad inconsistent offensively, but they still put forth a strong enough effort to breeze past Weber State in first round action. Cincinnati shot just 39.1 percent from the floor, but finished 11-of-28 from behind the arc, and 15-of-16 from the foul line. Deonta Vaughn led the way in the win with 16 points and seven assists, while Lance Stephenson added 14 points. Stephenson is currently leading the team on the season with 12.3 ppg, and is also grabbing 5.3 rpg. Vaughn is contributing 11.2 ppg, and is pacing the team with 3.5 apg, but the guard comes into this matchup shooting just 38.1 percent from the floor. Yancy Gates has given the Bearcats a solid option in the paint, as the forward is posting 10.6 ppg, to go along with a team-best 6.0 rpg.

The Flyers have relied on their defensive play throughout the season, and should be able to put forth a stingy effort against Cincinnati. However, the Bearcats are a very tough team at home, and should earn a slim victory this evening.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2010, 02:23 PM

On College Basketball: Resetting the brackets

As we approach the Sweet Sixteen and Regional Finals, two things stand out in my mind. First, beware the mid- majors; and second, why are they even making Duke play?

As far as the non-mid-majors are concerned, I am most surprised by the team I one week ago dubbed "vastly overrated." Third-seeded Baylor has proved worthy of its seeding (keep in mind though, a three-seed in the south is like a six in the East or Midwest) and now carries my hopes of finishing Duke if Purdue cannot get it done. I think Purdue has been tremendously overlooked as a tournament contender, and probably benefited from that status to last longer in the south. Ideally, I would like to see St. Mary's defeat Baylor, but I know that is unlikely and also counterproductive to my overall goal of seeing anyone but Duke proceed to Indianapolis in the south region of this year's tournament bracket.

Looking ahead this week, below are my predictions as to who I believe will be filling those coveted four positions Sunday evening.

EAST

(12) Cornell and (11) Washington are far better than I had anticipated. However, neither team is talented enough to take down the likes of (1) Kentucky or (2) West Virginia. Washington has greater opportunity to advance strictly because Quincy Pondexter has such an overwhelming presence on the court. An on- day for him and an off for the Mountaineers could lead to another victory for the Huskies.

That does not mean Kentucky should not fear the Big Red. A team with everything to prove (and what seemed to be an easy defeat of veteran Bo Ryan's Wisconsin team) can easily lead to upset. In this instance though, I think the Cornell run will likely stop the minute they find themselves matched up with future NBA stars, John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson. John Calipari's biggest mistake though, would be to enter this game anything less than prepared.

In the 1 vs. 2 matchup I foresee, I predict Kentucky coming out on top. The Wildcats' talent is unparalleled, and it was the fact that Calipari left a bad taste in the mouths of many, in addition to UK's youth, that swayed popular opinion to Kansas as the consensus pick for 2010 National Champion (Calipari's pariah status also led Vanderbilt's Kevin Stallings to be named SEC Coach of the Year). I never believed the Jayhawks to be the next national champions because they were unbalanced at either ends of the court. Kentucky is dangerous competition for any team in the nation right now because they are playing well at all angles. So are the Mountaineers. This matchup will be the most difficult of any in the Regional Finals and although I believe the 'Cats have a better chance of coming out on top, I am far from certain in that calculation.

WEST

I know I just said that whole thing about "beware the mid-majors" but truthfully, we are too far into the tournament for the mid-major teams to make all that much noise. Sure, there will be at least one (maybe two) surprises heading into the Elite; but when Sunday evening rolls around, the phrase "mid- major" will be virtually void from tournament talk.

(6) Xavier beat Minnesota and Pitt. Solid and impressive wins. Well, not that impressive. Xavier is no stranger to the Sweet Sixteen and it is no shock that it made it this far. What will be a shock though, is if the Musketeers upset heavily favored Kansas State (2). Although, I cannot shake this feeling that K-State is just a little too good to be true.

(1) Syracuse playing (5) Butler brings one thing to mind. "Defense wins ball games." I have always replaced 'defense' with 'free throws' because it is absolutely true...anybody watch the Northern Iowa-Kansas upset? Butler has a sound offense but Syracuse is a heavy-D team that is playing its best defensive game in the tournament. The Bulldogs are going to put up a decent fight but will break under pressure.

As well as Syracuse has been playing, it is difficult for me to say the Orange will fall to the Wildcats. As far as star power goes, Wesley Johnson is one of the most well-rounded players in the nation. Kansas State does not boast a leader as powerful, although K-State is not lacking in depth or talent. For no reason other than I want to see them in the Final Four, I pick the Wildcats to advance. I realize this is not convincing evidence, but I have yet to truly convince myself.

MIDWEST

(6) Tennessee may appear to be a better team than you may have thought. Don't let them fool you. They cake-walked into the second round...wait a minute, they cake-walked out of the second-round too. San Diego State and Ohio are not proving you Final Four worthy in my book, Bruce Pearl (not that you ever were). Make no mistake, I would be perfectly happy seeing the Vols take out (2) Ohio State; but seeing how I doubted UT's ability to even make it into the Sweet Sixteen, I'm pretty sure OSU will walk away with this win.

I may be asking too much of the tournament gods to see the Northern Iowa Panthers upset another team, but I am going to anyway--mainly because it is a reasonable request. Michigan State would be my pick had Kalin Lucas not become injured against Maryland. Lucas' torn Achilles just may be the proverbial weak heel for the Spartans as well. The Spartans are not as talented as MSU tournament teams in the past. The injury is a major blow and the tremendous amount of pressure brought by tournament games makes a Spartan team recovery seem difficult.

(9) Northern Iowa took down Kansas, the President's pick for title winner. Surely they could take down Evan Turner's Buckeyes, right? If any team standing in the Midwest can take down Ohio State, it is the Panthers. The top- three defense will be able to run down OSU's limited bench, but do they have enough man power to take down Turner? If this game happens, that will be the biggest factor. I think Northern Iowa has a better chance than the Spartans, but I doubt the Panthers can remain rolling on the upset train into the Final Four.

SOUTH

Dear Purdue,

End this conspiracy, please. Without Robbie Hummel most of the nation has discarded you and although that is unfair, you may return an American Hero (in our eyes at least) if you put an end to this ridiculous and purposeful attempt at Duke's Final Four advancement.

(3) Baylor may defeat (10) St. Mary's, but I still find reasons to believe the Gaels may advance. I realize that a win over Villanova is hardly a defense as it faded late in the year and just barely beat Robert Morris, but I still like to believe that St. Mary's proved itself in the first two rounds.

Who am I kidding? I just do not trust Baylor to get the job done. Baylor will probably beat St. Mary's but I just cannot leave the important duty of restoring justice to the 2010 NCAA tournament up to either team.

A heavy weight has been cast upon your shoulders, Boilermakers. I beg you, reach deep into your bench and use it. E'Twan Moore, show up for the ENTIRE game and guide your team around the perimeter. If you stifle the Blue Devils with your superior defense you will be tournament heroes...no matter how many more teams Northern Iowa upsets.

With Gratitude,

Citizens for Fair Bracket Construction

**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2010, 02:24 PM

Monday, March 22Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +123 500 ( NHL DOG )
Detroit - Over 5.5 500

Ottawa - 7:30 PM ET Montreal -135 500
Montreal - Under 5.5 500

Colorado - 10:30 PM ET Los Angeles -150 500
Los Angeles - Over 5.5 500

**bryce** · 03-22-2010, 02:29 PM

Good reads as always Stardust---thanks!!

GL with the Pens!

**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2010, 04:51 PM

Monday, March 22Game Score Status Pick Amount

Orlando - 7:00 PM ET Orlando -7.5 500 ( NBA POD )
Philadelphia - Under 196.5 300

Miami - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey +6 300
New Jersey - Over 187 300

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -2.5 300
Chicago - Over 209.5 300

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee -5.5 500 ( POD )
Milwaukee - Over 190.5 500 ( TOTAL )

Toronto - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +4.5 400
Minnesota - Over 217.5 400

Dallas - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans +5 300
New Orleans - Under 201 300

San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -5 500
Oklahoma City - Over 195 500

Boston - 9:00 PM ET Utah -4.5 300
Utah - Under 200 500 ( TOTAL )

Memphis - 10:00 PM ET Memphis -2.5 300
Sacramento - Over 205 400

Phoenix - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +4.5 500 ( NBA DOG )
Golden State - Under 246 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2010, 04:57 PM

Monday, March 22Game Score Status Pick Amount

Nevada - 6:00 PM ET Nevada +8 300
Rhode Island - Over 156 300

Connecticut - 7:00 PM ET Virginia Tech -4.5 500 ( POD )
Virginia Tech - Over 136.5 500

Charleston - 7:00 PM ET Charleston +12.5 300
VCU - Over 153 300

Princeton - 7:00 PM ET Princeton +6.5 500 ( POD )
Indiana - Purdue - Over 116.5 500

Morehead St. - 7:00 PM ET Morehead St. +1.5 400
Boston U - Over 135 400

Appalachian St. - 7:00 PM ET Appalachian St. +9 500 ( DOG POD )
Marshall - Over 151.5 500

Kent St. - 8:00 PM ET Kent St. +8 400
Illinois - Over 134 400

Fairfield - 8:00 PM ET Fairfield +5.5 400
Creighton - Under 142 400

Louisiana Tech - 8:05 PM ET Louisiana Tech +8.5 500 ( WAC POD )
Missouri St. - Over 140.5 300

Dayton - 9:00 PM ET Dayton +3.5 500 ( A-10 DOG POD )
Cincinnati - Under 127 500

Wis.-Green Bay - 9:00 PM ET Saint Louis -6.5 500
Saint Louis - Over 120.5 500

Pacific - 9:00 PM ET Northern Colorado -1.5 500 ( POD )
Northern Colorado - Over 127.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2010, 06:09 PM

NIT Tournament

Date Matchup ATS Result
Illinois Bracket
Mar. 17 1 Illinois (-7) 76 at 8 Stony Brook 66 Favorite-Over (134)
Mar. 17 4 Kent State (-5) 75 vs. 5 Tulsa 74 Underdog-Over (133)
Mar. 17 3 Dayton (-7.5) 63 vs. 6 Illinois State 42 Faovrite-Under (130)
Mar. 17 2 Cincinnati (-10) 76 vs. 7 Weber State 62 Favorite-Under (140)
Mar. 22 1 Illinois vs. 4 Kent State
Mar. 22 2 Cincinnati vs. 3 Dayton
TBD
Date Matchup ATS Result
Virginia Tech Bracket
Mar. 17 1 Virginia Tech (-13) 81 vs. 8 Quinnipiac 61 Favorite-Under (142.5)
Mar. 16 4 Connecticut (-7.5) 59 vs. 5 Northeastern 57 Underdog-Under (126.5)
Mar. 17 3 Wichita State 70 vs. 6 Nevada (+8) 74 Underdog-Over (141.5)
Mar. 17 2 Rhode Island (-6) 76 vs. 7 Northwestern 64 Favorite-Under (141.5)
Mar. 22 1 Virginia Tech vs. 4 Connecticut
Mar. 22 2 Rhode Island vs. 6 Nevada
TBD
Date Matchup ATS Result
Arizona State Bracket
Mar. 16 1 Arizona State 66 vs. 8 Jacksonville (+14.5) 67 Underdog-Over (127.5)
Mar. 16 4 Seton Hall 69 vs. 5 Texas Tech (+9) 87 Underdog-Under (161)
Mar. 17 3 Memphis (-6.5) 73 vs. 6 St. John's 71 Underdog-Over (133)
Mar. 17 2 Ole Miss (-13.5) 84 vs. 7 Troy 65 Favorite-Under (150)
Mar. 20 5 Texas Tech (-8.5) 69 vs. 8 Jacksonville 64 Underdog-Under (149.5)
Mar. 19 2 Ole Miss (-4) 90 vs. 3 Memphis 81 Favorite-Over (149)
Mar. 23 2 Ole Miss vs. 5 Texas Tech
Date Matchup ATS Result
Mississippi State Bracket
Mar. 16 1 Mississippi State (-21) 81 vs. 8 Jackson State 67 Underdog-Over (129.5)
Mar. 16 4 North Carolina (-8.5) 80 vs. 5 William & Mary 72 Underdog-Over (134)
Mar. 16 3 South Florida 57 vs. 6 NC State (+3.5) 58 Underdog-Under (127)
Mar. 16 2 UAB (-11) 65 vs 7 Coastal Carolina 49 Favorite-Under (125.5)
Mar. 20 1 Mississippi State 74 vs. 4 North Carolina (+7.5) 76 Underdog-Over (144.5)
Mar. 20 2 UAB (-5.5) 72 vs. 6 N.C. State 52 Favorite-Over (124)
Mar. 23 2 UAB vs. 4 North Carolina
Date Matchup ATS Result
NIT Championship from Madison Square Garden
Mar. 30
Mar. 30
Apr. 1

CBI Tournament

Date Matchup ATS Result
First Round
Mar. 16 Indiana State 54 at Saint Louis (-7.5) 63 Favorite-Under (119)
Mar. 16 VCU (-2.5) 79 at George Washington 73 Favorite-Over (142)
Mar. 17 Wisconsin-Green Bay (+7) 70 at Akron 66 Underdog-Over (134)
Mar. 17 Charleston (+3.5) 82 at Eastern Kentucky 79 Underdog-Over (145.5)
Mar. 17 Boston University (+7) 96 at Oregon State 78 Underdog-Over (122)
Mar. 17 Colorado State 60 at Morehead State (-8.5) 74 Favorite-Over (132)
Mar. 17 IUPUI (+3) 74 at Hofstra 60 Underdog-Under (144)
Mar. 17 Duquesne 51 at Princeton (-4.5) 65 Favorite-Under (121)
Date Matchup ATS Result
Quarterfinals
Mar. 22 College of Charleston at VCU
Mar. 22 Princeton at IUPUI
Mar. 22 Morehead State at Boston University
Mar. 22 Wisconsin-Green Bay at St. Louis
Date Matchup ATS Result
Semifinals
Mar. 24
Mar. 24
Date Matchup ATS Result
Championship (Best-of-Three)
Mar. 29
Mar. 31
Apr. 2 (*If Necessary)

CollegeInsider.com Tournament

Date Matchup ATS Result
First Round
Mar. 16 South Dakota 78 at Creighton (-13.5) 89 Underdog-Over (150)
Mar. 16 Fairfield (+1.5) 101 at George Mason 96 Underdog-Over (133)
Mar. 17 Harvard 71 at Appalachian State (-2) 93 Favortie-Over (145)
Mar. 17 Western Carolina 88 at Marshall (-11) 90 Underdog-Over (151)
Mar. 17 Middle Tennessee State 79 at Missouri State (-9) 87 Underdog-Over (133)
Mar. 17 Portland 73 at Northern Colorado (+1) 81 Underdog-Over (136)
Mar. 17 Pacific (-1) 86 at Loyola Marymount 76 Favorite-Over (135.5)
Mar. 18 Southern Mississippi (-4) 66 at Louisiana Tech 57 Favorite-Under (127)
Date Matchup ATS Result
Quarterfinals
Mar. 22 Appalachian State at Marshall
Mar. 22 Fairfield at Creighton
Mar. 22 Louisiana Tech at Missouri State
Mar. 22 Pacific at Northern Colorado
Date Matchup ATS Result
Semifinals
TBD
TBD
Date Matchup ATS Result
Championship
TBD

**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2010, 07:51 PM

Monday Means all Systems Go in NBA

The NBA can reclaim the basketball bettors today after being in the background the previous four days. Ten games are available for wagering purposes with an unusually high six road favorites in action. Here is a look at five of them in the very best systems in professional basketball this evening. Sides and totals from Sportsbook.com.

Miami (-6, 187) at New Jersey 7:00E YES

As New Jersey continues to chase history, in the negative sense for the worst record ever in the NBA, they find themselves in terrible position. The Nets don’t shoot or defend and tonight’s foe Miami is off their best defensive effort of the season, holding Charlotte to 29.2 shooting as the Bobcats totaled only 71 points. In this instance, play against home teams shooting 43 percent or less, with a defense that allows 46 percent or more, against opponent that conceded 35 percent or less in previous outing. This system rings up in the Heat’s favor at 23-5 ATS.

Toronto (-4.5, 217) at Minnesota

The purple dinosaurs are 1-11-1 against the spread in last 13 tries, while trying to hang on to last playoff slot in the Eastern Conference. In a matchup of two of the worst defensive teams in the league (Raptors 28th, T-Wolves 29th in points allowed), the UNDER is 41-10 when the total is greater than or equal to 210 and a club like Toronto is beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55 percent on the season.

Dallas (-5, 203.5) at New Orleans

The Hornets just completed a 1-4 road trip and return home to play five games at home, with three of the team’s division leaders, which includes Dallas tonight. When two squads have plus/minus scoring average of three or less after 42 games, play against the home team if they trailed by 10 or more points in their last two encounters at halftime. Dating back to 1996, this system is 39-13 ATS.

Memphis (-2, 206) at Sacramento

The Grizzlies were the latest team to grill Golden State’s cavalier attitude towards defense, winning 123-107 as nine-point home favorites. Memphis attempted 98 shots in that contest, which was one off their season high. The Grizzlies are seventh in the NBA in scoring at 102.7 points per game and teams averaging better than 102 PPG off a blowout win of 15 or more points, taking on above average offense (98-102 PPG), with a line +3 to -3, are 32-10 ATS since 2005.

Phoenix (-4.5, 243.5) at Golden State

The Phoenix Suns have won their last four games at the purple palace and take to the road for the first since Mar. 3. With the way Golden State is playing defense, road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. division opponents, off three or more consecutive home wins are 45-17 ATS.

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