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Write-Up
Friday, March 19
Friday's NCAA games
Vermont upset Syracuse in a 4-13 game five years ago, but Catamounts had better players then; America East teams lost last four tourney games by 13-27-19-24 points. Onuako is out for weekend, so Syracuse is thin, but that won't matter here, but they haven't won by more than 15 points in last nine first round games. Big East non-league favorites are 50-53.
Young Gonzaga comes all the way to western NY, their fifth trip east of Mississippi this year. Zags lost conference tourney final to St Mary's, got upset at San Francisco, both red flags. Florida State is best defensive team in country, according to kenpom.com, very athletic up front, but their last tourney win was '98- they're 0-4 vs spread in last four games.
West Virginia had emotional run thru Big East tourney, now has to crank up again against Morgan State team that lost at Minnesota by 30, Baylor by 16, Louisville by 9-- they won at Arkansas. Mountaineers are 3-6 in last nine games as favorite, 2-5 vs spread as non-conference double digit favorite. Three of last five MEAC tourney losses are by 11 or less pts.
Clemson lost last three first round games and were favored in all three- their last tourney win was '97. Clemson is 2-3 in last five games, was 2-7 on ACC road. Missouri lost three of last four games, scoring 57.8 ppg in the losses. Both teams like to press and go up and down, but Missouri's recent struggles scoring make pressing difficult. Big 12 underdogs: 18-15.
Cornell led in last 2:00 at Kansas, which is why Big Red is trendy pick for upset; that and lot of national media are Ivy grads, so they're on the Cornell bandwagon. Temple holds opponents under 30% from arc, but Cornell makes 42%+ from arc, so that will be key stat. Cornell lost by 15 to Syracuse, 10 to Seton Hall. Temple is 10-2 in last 12 as favorite.
Wofford won last 13 games, covered eight of last nine as underdog; they lost by 14 at Illinois, 2 at Bradley, 3 at Pitt, 12 at Michigan State, won at Georgia. Wisconsin had 4-game win streak snapped in first game of Big 11 tourney; they're 5-3 as double digit favorite, but 3-4 vs spread as a favorite overall. SoCon underdogs are 31-34 vs spread this season.
Ark-Pine Bluff held Winthrop to 29% Tuesday, 2-20 from arc, getting its first tournament win; Lions started season 0-11, playing seven teams in top 60, but none of the losses were by more than 20 points. Duke has to be preparing for second round game vs Louisville/Cal; they're 1-4 vs spread in last five first round games. Game means lot more to Pine Bluff.
California starts four seniors, shoots 3's well, which makes them live vs Louisville team that has to play zone because their man defense is awful. Pac-10 vs Big East bias gives Cal value. Bears won six of last seven, are 9-2 vs spread in last 11 games. Cardinals are 2-3 in their last five games, 3-7 vs spread in last ten. Cardinals are 4-8 in games outside of Louisville.
Ohio State plays seven guys; they've won last seven games, are 6-4 vs spread in last ten, Buckeyes played Sunday, could be flat vs UCSB club that won eight of last nine games and is 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight as a dog. Once-proud Big West lost last four tourney games by 12-35-15-11 points (1-3 vs spread). Big West underdogs are 26-25 against spread.
Rematch of 2004 national semifinal game, which Georgia Tech won; they went 3-1 in ACC tourney to make tournament after a 4-7 end to regular season. Jackets have two terrific big guys, but suspect guards. Oklahoma State split last six games; they were down 25 at half in last game, to K-State in Big 12 tourney. Big 12 favorites are 45-28 vs spread this year.
Pitt won seven of last nine games, is 4-4-1 as double digit favorite; they won last four first round games by 15-21-19-10 points (3-1 vs spread). Oakland lost to Syracuse/Michigan St/Memphis and Kansas, all by 30+ points- they lost to Mizzou by 16, so they're not likely to hang in here, but they did play #14-ranked non-conference schedule this season.
Minnesota got in tournament with strong Big 11 tourney, but played on Sunday- they're 8-2 vs spread in last 10 games, 7-3 SU, with two losses by 28-29 points. Xavier won seven of last eight games, losing in OT in conference tourney; Musketeers went 9-5 against #12-ranked non-conf schedule. Gophers' last tournament win came way back in 1997.
New Mexico State lost last three regular season road games before run in WAC tournament got them here; Aggies are 8-5 vs spread last 13 games as an underdog. Michigan State is 3-9 vs spread in last dozen games as a favorite, 2-6 as favorite in non-league games, 3-5 vs spread in last eight first round tournament games. WAC underdogs are 24-22 vs spread.
Houston was going to fire its coach a week ago, now they're in NCAAs after unlikely 4-day run thru C-USA tourney; Cougars were 4-8 in last 12 regular season games, losing at lowly Tulane. Maryland covered nine of last 11 as favorite, getting four-game win streak snapped in first game of ACC tourney. Terps won last four first round games by 2-3-12-13.
Utah State was one of last two teams in field after loss to athletic New Mexico State in WAC tourney; now they face an equally athletic Texas A&M squad that is 11-2 vs spread in last 13 games, 7-2 in last nine as a favorite. A&M won its last four first round games by 8-16-5-13 points. Utah State beat Wichita (Turgeon's old team) in Bracket Busters Feb 20.
Siena's best 3-point shooter sprained his ankle over weekend, had to use crutches Sunday night; status is ?? here, which almost offsets Hummel's torn ACL. Saints won first round game last two years, upsetting Ohio St in 8-9 game LY. Boilermakers trailed 37-11 at halftime of last game; they are 0-7 vs spread in last seven games, all as fave. MAAC dogs are 18-15.
Write-Up
Friday, March 19
Friday's NCAA games
Vermont upset Syracuse in a 4-13 game five years ago, but Catamounts had better players then; America East teams lost last four tourney games by 13-27-19-24 points. Onuako is out for weekend, so Syracuse is thin, but that won't matter here, but they haven't won by more than 15 points in last nine first round games. Big East non-league favorites are 50-53.
Young Gonzaga comes all the way to western NY, their fifth trip east of Mississippi this year. Zags lost conference tourney final to St Mary's, got upset at San Francisco, both red flags. Florida State is best defensive team in country, according to kenpom.com, very athletic up front, but their last tourney win was '98- they're 0-4 vs spread in last four games.
West Virginia had emotional run thru Big East tourney, now has to crank up again against Morgan State team that lost at Minnesota by 30, Baylor by 16, Louisville by 9-- they won at Arkansas. Mountaineers are 3-6 in last nine games as favorite, 2-5 vs spread as non-conference double digit favorite. Three of last five MEAC tourney losses are by 11 or less pts.
Clemson lost last three first round games and were favored in all three- their last tourney win was '97. Clemson is 2-3 in last five games, was 2-7 on ACC road. Missouri lost three of last four games, scoring 57.8 ppg in the losses. Both teams like to press and go up and down, but Missouri's recent struggles scoring make pressing difficult. Big 12 underdogs: 18-15.
Cornell led in last 2:00 at Kansas, which is why Big Red is trendy pick for upset; that and lot of national media are Ivy grads, so they're on the Cornell bandwagon. Temple holds opponents under 30% from arc, but Cornell makes 42%+ from arc, so that will be key stat. Cornell lost by 15 to Syracuse, 10 to Seton Hall. Temple is 10-2 in last 12 as favorite.
Wofford won last 13 games, covered eight of last nine as underdog; they lost by 14 at Illinois, 2 at Bradley, 3 at Pitt, 12 at Michigan State, won at Georgia. Wisconsin had 4-game win streak snapped in first game of Big 11 tourney; they're 5-3 as double digit favorite, but 3-4 vs spread as a favorite overall. SoCon underdogs are 31-34 vs spread this season.
Ark-Pine Bluff held Winthrop to 29% Tuesday, 2-20 from arc, getting its first tournament win; Lions started season 0-11, playing seven teams in top 60, but none of the losses were by more than 20 points. Duke has to be preparing for second round game vs Louisville/Cal; they're 1-4 vs spread in last five first round games. Game means lot more to Pine Bluff.
California starts four seniors, shoots 3's well, which makes them live vs Louisville team that has to play zone because their man defense is awful. Pac-10 vs Big East bias gives Cal value. Bears won six of last seven, are 9-2 vs spread in last 11 games. Cardinals are 2-3 in their last five games, 3-7 vs spread in last ten. Cardinals are 4-8 in games outside of Louisville.
Ohio State plays seven guys; they've won last seven games, are 6-4 vs spread in last ten, Buckeyes played Sunday, could be flat vs UCSB club that won eight of last nine games and is 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight as a dog. Once-proud Big West lost last four tourney games by 12-35-15-11 points (1-3 vs spread). Big West underdogs are 26-25 against spread.
Rematch of 2004 national semifinal game, which Georgia Tech won; they went 3-1 in ACC tourney to make tournament after a 4-7 end to regular season. Jackets have two terrific big guys, but suspect guards. Oklahoma State split last six games; they were down 25 at half in last game, to K-State in Big 12 tourney. Big 12 favorites are 45-28 vs spread this year.
Pitt won seven of last nine games, is 4-4-1 as double digit favorite; they won last four first round games by 15-21-19-10 points (3-1 vs spread). Oakland lost to Syracuse/Michigan St/Memphis and Kansas, all by 30+ points- they lost to Mizzou by 16, so they're not likely to hang in here, but they did play #14-ranked non-conference schedule this season.
Minnesota got in tournament with strong Big 11 tourney, but played on Sunday- they're 8-2 vs spread in last 10 games, 7-3 SU, with two losses by 28-29 points. Xavier won seven of last eight games, losing in OT in conference tourney; Musketeers went 9-5 against #12-ranked non-conf schedule. Gophers' last tournament win came way back in 1997.
New Mexico State lost last three regular season road games before run in WAC tournament got them here; Aggies are 8-5 vs spread last 13 games as an underdog. Michigan State is 3-9 vs spread in last dozen games as a favorite, 2-6 as favorite in non-league games, 3-5 vs spread in last eight first round tournament games. WAC underdogs are 24-22 vs spread.
Houston was going to fire its coach a week ago, now they're in NCAAs after unlikely 4-day run thru C-USA tourney; Cougars were 4-8 in last 12 regular season games, losing at lowly Tulane. Maryland covered nine of last 11 as favorite, getting four-game win streak snapped in first game of ACC tourney. Terps won last four first round games by 2-3-12-13.
Utah State was one of last two teams in field after loss to athletic New Mexico State in WAC tourney; now they face an equally athletic Texas A&M squad that is 11-2 vs spread in last 13 games, 7-2 in last nine as a favorite. A&M won its last four first round games by 8-16-5-13 points. Utah State beat Wichita (Turgeon's old team) in Bracket Busters Feb 20.
Siena's best 3-point shooter sprained his ankle over weekend, had to use crutches Sunday night; status is ?? here, which almost offsets Hummel's torn ACL. Saints won first round game last two years, upsetting Ohio St in 8-9 game LY. Boilermakers trailed 37-11 at halftime of last game; they are 0-7 vs spread in last seven games, all as fave. MAAC dogs are 18-15.
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