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**StarDust Bum** · 03-17-2010, 11:17 PM

Session I, Thursday

The 2010 NCAA Tournament begins Thursday afternoon with a trio of games starting with BYU and Florida in Oklahoma City at 12:20 p.m. Eastern. Five minutes later, Old Dominion and Notre Dame will square off in New Orleans. Then at 12:30 p.m., Robert Morris will take on Villanova in Providence, RI. Let’s take an in-depth look at all three of these contests and more…

**Florida vs. Brigham Young**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened BYU (29-5 straight up, 18-13 against the spread) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 145. As of Tuesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Cougars listed as 4 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 146. Bettors can take the Gators to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

--Florida (21-12 SU, 15-13 ATS) has won 12 consecutive NCAA Tournament games. Of course, those numbers stem from the 2006 and 2007 events when Billy Donovan’s program captured back-to-back national championships. Since then, UF had to settle for a pair of NIT bids and a possible third seemed possible on Selection Sunday. As it turned out, however, the Gators were somewhat comfortably ‘in’ as evidenced by their No. 10 seed.

--BYU is one of four teams in the field from the Mountain West Conference, the most the league has ever sent. The Cougars haven’t tasted a victory in the NCAA Tournament since 1993 when they beat SMU in Chicago as a No. 7 seed. They are seeded seventh for the first time since then this year, a welcome change when considering three straight losses as an eighth seed. BYU had lost to Texas A&M in the 8-9 game the last two campaigns.

--Dave Rose’s team was probably in line for a better seed, perhaps as high as a No. 5, until it lost to UNLV 70-66 in the MWC Tournament semifinals. In fairness to BYU, we should mention that the game was in Las Vegas at the Thomas & Mack Center, essentially making it a road assignment. In the losing effort, Jimmer Fredette scored a game-high 30 points.

--BYU freshman guard Tyler Haws, who averages 11.4 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, did not play against the Rebels after suffering a fractured orbital bone in Thursday’s win over TCU in the MWC Tourney quarterfinals. Haws was considered “questionable” for the UF game as of Tuesday morning.

--Fredette averages a team-high 21.7 points per game for BYU. Donovan raved about him on Monday, telling the Gainesville Sun, “We’ve seen two great point guards in our league in (South Carolina’s Devan) Downey and (Kentucky’s John) Wall, and I’m not so sure those two guys can have the impact in a game like this guy can. He goes to Arizona and gets, I think, 49. In the first round of the conference tournament, he gets 45. He is an unbelievable player and they obviously have a lot of good pieces around him who are very good players.”

--Florida lost its last three regular-season games and has dropped four of its last five. The Gators beat Auburn 78-69 as 5 ½-point favorites in the first round of the SEC Tournament in Nashville this past Thursday. Alex Tyus paced UF with 24 points against the Tigers. But Florida went down by a 75-69 count to Mississippi St. as a 1 ½-point underdog in the SEC quarterfinals.

--Florida owns a 6-5 spread record in 11 games as an underdog this season. Meanwhile, BYU has compiled an 8-4 ATS mark in 12 games as a single-digit favorite.

--BYU lost five of nine games against teams in the NCAA field, while Florida went 3-8 against the field with wins over Michigan St., FSU and Tennessee.

--Only one UF player – senior Dan Werner – has any NCAA Tournament experience.

--The ‘under’ is 13-11 overall for the Gators, although they have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in their last six games.

--The ‘over’ is on a 7-3 run for the Cougars, who have watched the ‘over’ go 15-14 overall.

--The winner will face the Kansas State-North Texas winner on Saturday. The Wildcats are the No. 2 seed in the West region.

**Notre Dame vs. Old Dominion**

--LVSC opened Notre Dame (23-11 SU, 17-10-1 ATS) as a four-point favorite with a total of 116. As of Tuesday afternoon, most books had adjusted the Irish to a two-point 'chalk' with a total of 122.

--Old Dominion (26-8 SU, 13-17 ATS) has won five in a row and eight of its last nine, including a 60-53 win over William & Mary in the finals of the Colonial Tournament. However, the Tribe took the money as a nine-point underdog. Darius James led a balanced attack for the Monarchs with 12 points, four assists and three rebounds.

--ODU is 1-6 both SU and ATS in seven games as an underdog. The Monarchs picked up their lone victory by winning 61-57 at Georgetown as nine-point underdogs back on Dec. 19.

--Mike Brey’s team is 5-4-1 ATS in 10 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’ The Irish are 7-2 ATS in nine games against teams in the NCAA field.

--Notre Dame was on the bubble a couple of weeks ago, but this squad caught fire at just the right time to get a solid sixth seed in the South region. After a 91-89 overtime loss at Louisville on Feb. 17, the Irish ripped off six straight wins until dropping a 53-51 heartbreaker to West Virginia in the Big East Tournament semifinals. Most importantly, they have covered the spread in eight straight games.

--Notre Dame senior All-American Luke Harangody (23.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG) sustained a knee injury on Feb. 11 against Seton Hall, causing him to miss five consecutive games. Harangody returned to the court and came off the bench to play sparingly in an OT win at Marquette in the regular-season finale. But he got more minutes at MSG in the league tourney. In fact, ‘Gody went off for 20 points and 10 rebounds in just 24 minutes of playing time in a 68-56 win over the Pirates to start the Irish’s run in NYC. He finished with 12 and 10 points against Pitt and WVU, respectively.

--The ‘under’ is 17-13 overall for ODU, but the ‘over’ is 7-1 in its last eight outings.

--The ‘under’ has been on fire for the Irish, cashing in seven straight games. For the season, the ‘under’ is 16-11 overall for Notre Dame.

**Robert Morris vs. Villanova**

--LVSC opened Villanova (24-7 SU, 18-12 ATS) as a 20-point favorite with a total of 142. As of Tuesday afternoon, most spots had ‘Nova as a 19-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 147 1/2.

--Jay Wright’s squad has limped down the stretch, especially for our purposes. The Wildcats have lost five of their last seven games, including an 80-76 loss to Marquette as five-point favorites in the Big East Tourney quarterfinals.

--‘Nova is in the midst of a 2-6 ATS slide in its last eight outings. With that said, the Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit favorites.

--Robert Morris (23-11 SU, 3-4 ATS) won the Northeast Conference’s automatic bid by besting Quinnipac 52-50 in the finals of the league tournament. The Colonials won outright as 4 ½-point underdogs. Karon Abraham paced the winners with a team-high 16 points.

--Robert Morris has split four games against teams in the NCAA field, but that factoid is extremely misleading. The Colonials beat Ohio (81-79) and Morgan St. (78-75) at home in a pair of non-lined affairs. However, they got blasted 100-60 at Syracuse as 18 ½-point ‘dogs and also lost 77-53 at Pitt in a non-lined game.

--‘Nova is led by senior guard Scottie Reynolds, who averages a team-high 18.5 PPG and garnered first-team All-Big East honors. Reynolds is just 49 points shy of overtaking Kerry Kittles as the school’s all-time leading scorer. His backcourt mate, junior Corey Fisher, has been filling it up from 3-point land recently. Fisher drained 6-of-7 treys in the Big East Tourney loss to Marquette and is 12-of-19 from beyond the arc in the last three games.

--Villanova sophomore forward Taylor King, a transfer from Duke, was benched for the team’s regular-season finale and only played two minutes against Marquette. Wright’s reasoning for the benching was termed a “teaching moment.” King is the team’s fifth-leading scorer (7.5 PPG) and he also pulls down 5.6 rebounds per contest.

--The ‘over’ is 18-12 overall for Villanova, but the ‘under’ is 4-2 in its last six outings.

--The ‘over’ is 2-1 overall for the Colonials.

--The winner will advance to face the St. Mary’s-Richmond survivor on Saturday.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-17-2010, 11:18 PM

Session II, Thursday

The hits keep on coming on Thursday afternoon as the 2010 NCAA Tournament rolls through its second session of the day. We’ll open up in San Jose as Vanderbilt and Murray State square off at 2:30 p.m. EDT. Kansas State will open its tourney run the Mean Green in Oklahoma City 20 minutes later. It all concludes with a quality first round battle between UTEP and Butler back at the HP Pavilion.

Murray State (13) vs. Vanderbilt (4) – 2:30 p.m. EDT

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has posted Vanderbilt (24-8 straight up, 16-14 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 140 ½ for this contest. Bettors wanting to take the Racers for the outright upset can expect a plus-130 return on their money (risk $100 to win $130).

The Commodores come into this game as one of the four teams to make the tournament from the Southeastern Conference. Vandy finished the year second in the East Division, but closed out with two losses in its last three games. The ‘Dores found themselves on the short end of a 62-52 decision against Mississippi State last Saturday as two-point favorites. They shot just 35 percent from the field, but only had seven offensive rebounds. Festus Ezeli put in just eight points and six boards to lead the team. A.J. Ogilvy, who is averaging 6.2 rebounds per game, had just four picks off the glass and two points against the Bulldogs.

Murray State (30-4 SU, 14-14-1 ATS) comes into this game having won 21 of its last 22 contests of the season en route to the Ohio Valley Conference championship. The Racers are one of the more complete teams in the NCAA Tournament as they’re the only conference champ to lead their league in offense (77.5 PPG) and defense (60.5 PPG).

In their OVC title-winning game, the Racers dropped Morehead State 62-51 as four-point favorites last Saturday. It was the third time in MSU’s last four games that they covered the spread. The ‘under’ has gone on a 5-1 run to close out the conference season. In the win over the Eagles, Isaiah Canaan pushed through for Murray State with 16 points and five rebounds.

Murray State has been tabbed as an underdog just twice this season, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, with the ‘over’ cashing in on both occasions. The lone cover came in the season opener for the Racers as they fell to California as 14-point road pups 75-70 on Nov. 9. Over the last two years, Murray State is 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS as an underdog. The totals have gone 4-4 in that time as well.

Vanderbilt has gone 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS when posted as a single-digit favorite this season. The ‘over’ has cashed in a lot for bettors by going 7-2-1 in that stretch.

When you look at how these teams did against the rest of the NCAA field, then you’d point to the Commodores and their 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS as the ‘over’ went 5-2. Murray State is 2-0 SU and 0-1 ATS against teams that are going dancing.

The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in Vandy’s last 10 games, while the Racers have watched the ‘under’ go on a 7-3 run.

Either the Miners or Bulldogs will face off with the winner of this contest.

North Texas (15) vs. Kansas State (2) – 2:50 p.m. EDT

LVSC opened Kansas State (26-7 SU, 18-9-1 ATS) as heavy 16-point favorites with a total of 148 ½. If the Mean Green pull off the upset, they’ll be paying off at plus-1500 (risk $100 to win $1500).

North Texas (24-8 SU, 17-6-2 ATS) comes into this opening round contest having won the Sun Belt title for the second time in four years. The Mean Green have won 11 straight fixtures, covering the number in seven times. They came up with a thrilling last-second 66-63 win over Troy in the conference title game, where it was a pick ‘em at the betting outlets. Eric Tramiel poured in 20 points and 10 rebounds. George Odufuwa snared 17 boards and 11 points in a winning effort.

Gamblers taking the Mean Green have enjoyed backing them when they’re listed as underdogs, going 4-5 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in those nine times that it happened. The ‘under’ went 4-3 in that situation for North Texas.

The Wildcats were still in the running for a top seed in this tourney if they could win against intrastate rival Kansas in the Big XII title game. K-State couldn’t get past the Jayhawks, losing 72-64 as a six-point pup last Saturday. Denis Clemente racked up 17 points, two boards and four assists in a losing effort.

We shouldn’t cry too much for K-State for being the No. 2 team in the West Region. After all, they are listed at 5/1 to make it to Indianapolis.

Kansas State has been a quality team to back when they’re tabbed as a favorite, going 17-2 SU and 13-5-1 AST this season. When listed as double-digit faves, the ‘Cats are 5-1 SU but just 3-3 ATS. The totals went 2-2 that had a number on the board.

The ‘Cats are 9-5 SU and 9-4 ATS against other teams that made the NCAA Tournament. The ‘under’ is 7-6 in those contests.

The ‘under’ is 11-9 for the Mean Green this season, while K-State has watched the ‘over’ go 12-10.

Either Brigham Young or Florida await the winner of this game.

Sam Houston State (14) vs. Baylor (3) – 2:55 p.m. EDT

LVSC installed Baylor (25-7 SU, 16-9 ATS) as an 11-point “chalk” with a total of 150 ½. Bettors interested in backing the Bearkats to win outright can expect a plus-550 (risk $100 to win $550) return.

Sam Houston State (25-7 SU, 3-2 ATS) is making its first trip to the Big Dance since 2003 after beating the Lumberjacks as a three-point favorite 64-48 last Saturday. The ‘Kats dominated against Stephen F. Austin with Gilberto Clavell leading the way with 21 points, five boards and four helpers.

The Bearkats played only one game against someone in the field of 65. In that game, they were beaten by Kentucky 102-92 in Lexington back on Nov. 19.

Baylor enters the tournament having just had its five-game win streak snapped in an 82-75 loss to the Wildcats as a 2 ½-point pup in the Big XII Semifinals. The Bears actually shot better than K-State in that contest (54%-46%), but turned the ball over 18 times to seal their fate. LaceDarius Dunn has 26 points, while Ekpe Udoh scored 18 point with 11 rebounds. That loss also snapped a four-game ATS winning streak for bettors that were backing Baylor at the close of league play.

The Bears have posted an 8-5 SU and 6-6 ATS mark against other teams that made it into the NCAA Tournament. The ‘over’ went a strong 8-3 in that stretch.

These two clubs have played once in recent memory with the Bearkats winning 81-64 in Waco in 1999. That was Dave Bliss’ first year with Baylor…well before he found fun and exciting ways to sully a dead player’s name by claiming he was a drug dealer.

The ‘over’ has gone 15-7 for Baylor this season. And it is currently on a 5-1 run as we head into this tourney.

Notre Dame or Old Dominion awaits the victor of this contest.

St. Mary’s (10) vs. Richmond (7) – 3:00 p.m. EDT

Richmond (26-8 SU, 18-11-1 ATS) has been installed as a two-point favorite with a total of 134 ½. The Gaels are listed at plus-110 (risk $100 to win $110) to pull off a minor upset.

St. Mary’s (26-5 SU, 20-10 ATS) was largely considered a bubble team before the West Coast Conference Tournament began. They eliminated all doubt of getting an invite by securing the league’s automatic berth with an 81-62 win over the Zags as a 4 ½-point underdog on March 8. Mickey McConnell led the Gaels to the title with 26 points and six assists.

The Gaels has had the backs of gamblers as of late, covering the spread in four of their last five contests. The ‘over’ is 15-10-1 for St. Mary’s this season. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in on an 8-2 run to close out the regular season and conference tourney play.

Richmond thought they were in some danger of missing out on the Big Dance after falling to the Owls 56-52 on March 14 as a four-point ‘dog. A body of work that included wins over Mizzou, Florida and Mississippi State helped the Spiders gain one of the 65 spots in the tourney.

The Spiders have a defense that is giving up just 62.2 PPG this season to rank 42nd nationally. And they’re 17th in defensive field goal percentage by allowing the opposition to hit just 39.2 percent of their shots. On the attack, look no further than Kevin Anderson to get things on track. Anderson leads the team with 17.8 PPG and almost three helpers per game this season.

Even though Richmond has a strong ATS mark on the year as a whole, they are just 3-3-1 ATS in its last seven contests. The ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run for the Spiders right now as well.

You’re going to be hard pressed to find a team for our purposes that fared better against other NCAA Tournament qualifiers than the Spiders. They are 5-3 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in eight games against teams in the Big Dance. And the ‘over’ has gone 5-3 for totals players.

The Gaels are 4-3 SU and ATS in seven contests against other NCAA tourney teams. The totals went 3-3 in those spots.

The winner of this test will get to take on either the Fighting Irish or Monarchs in the second round on Sunday.

Texas-El Paso (12) vs. Butler (5) – 4:55 p.m. EDT

LVSC has tapped Butler (28-4 SU, 13-19 ATS) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 130. The Miners are currently listed at plus-125 (risk $100 to win $125) on the money line.

The Bulldogs had very few problems running the table in the Horizon League this season with an 18-0 record. That solid play continued into the conference tourney, culminating in a 70-45 victory over Wright State as 7 ½-point favorites on March 9. Matt Howard led a unit that shot 52 percent with 14 points and nine boards.

You’ll understand if other bettors are gun shy when it comes to saddling up with Butler since they’re 4-7 ATS over its last 11 contests. Also, the ‘over’ is 15-12 for the year. Yet in the last 10 games for the Bulldogs, the ‘under’ has gone 7-3.

UTEP (26-6 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) lost 81-73 to the Cougars as a 7 ½-point favorite for the Conference USA championship last Saturday. That setback shouldn’t deter people from the fact that the Miners went into that contest having won 16 straight games, covering the number in 10 of those matches. The over’ is 12-10 for the year for Texas-El Paso and 5-3 in its last eight contests.

There is some value in taking Butler to win the West Region at 15/1 on Sportsbook.com. Meanwhile, the Miners can pay you off with a 40/1 return if they cut down the nets at the EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah.

The Miners may have a strong body of work, but they are just 3-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their seven matches against other NCAA Tournament foes. The totals were 3-3 in the six that had a number assigned to them.

Butler has posted a 3-3 SU and ATS record against other NCAA qualifiers. That record is a little misleading as they’ve got wins over the Buckeyes and Musketeers – two of the better teams in this field.

Vandy or Murray State awaits the winner of this first round battle.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-17-2010, 11:19 PM

Session III, Thursday

Thursday’s evening session features four games on tap and gamblers will be facing a pair of double-digit spreads, plus two contests that have numbers listed close to a pick ‘em. The first battle starts at 7:10 p.m. EDT and the last contest of the third session tips 15 minutes later at 7:15 p.m. EDT. Let’s break ‘em down!

Midwest Regional at Oklahoma City - No. 8 UNLV vs. No. 9 Northern Iowa (7:10 p.m. EDT)

If you’re looking for an old-school basketball matchup to watch in the opening round, then check out Northern Iowa (28-4 SU, 20-11 ATS) battle UNLV (25-8 SU, 19-12 ATS) from the Ford Center. Unfortunately, the winner of this matchup will most likely meet the top overall seed from the tournament, Kansas, if it doesn’t fall to No. 16 Lehigh in the first round.

The Panthers won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season and tournament behind a defense (54.3 PPG) that frustrates opponents into mistakes. Head coach Ben Jacobson and his troops are no strangers to the Big Dance, making their fifth visit since 2004. Unfortunately for Northern Iowa, they haven’t won any of its four previous trips but they did go 3-1 ATS. Looking at the four losses closer, UNI lost all four by exactly five points and the opponents – Purdue, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech – were all top-tier programs.

Fast forward to this March and UNI is still an underdog albeit a short one (+1) against UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after losing in the Mountain West Conference championship to San Diego State (45-55), an opponent that plays a similar style to UNI. The Rebels can play fast or slow but head coach Lon Kruger has decided to put defense (63.6 PPG) first in the desert.

Offensively, UNLV goes as Tre’Von Willis goes. The shooting guard leads the team with 17.7 PPG and a lot of his points come from the free throw line (86%). Unfortunately the rest of the attack has been inconsistent, which is why defense has become the key in Las Vegas.

The Panthers are by no means an offensive juggernaut (63.3 PPG) but they play smart and they make their free throws (75.4%) too. UNI has a lot of experience, returning all five starters from last year’s team, plus nine of the top 10 players. Jordan Eglseder, a 7-foot center, has been capable in the frontcourt for UNI, plus they have six players that have notched 20-plus bombs from 3-point land.

The total on this game is listed at 113 points, which is the lowest ‘over/under’ in the 32 first round games. UNI has watched the ‘under’ go 21-7 (75%) on the season and the majority of totals were listed at 125 or less. Bettors playing totals on UNLV have seen the total split at 15-15 but the ‘under’ closed with a 7-3 run to end the season. Tournament trends for UNI have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 in their last four appearances.

East Regional at New Orleans - No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 16 ETSU (7:15 p.m. EDT)

The New Orleans Arena will get to see head coach John Calipari and Kentucky (32-2 SU, 17-15 ATS) start its tournament run against East Tennessee State (20-14 SU, 2-1 ATS). It’s safe to say that the Wildcats should advance in this spot but will they be able to cover the 19 ½-point spread?

ETSU won the Atlantic Sun Tournament and finished the season with six straight victories. When trying to gauge how the Buccaneers will do against Kentucky, you can point to some non-conference clashes. They beat Arkansas (94-85) but lost to Louisville (56-69), Tennessee (66-78) and UAB (52-74). The problem with the Bucs is their offense (69.2 PPG), which has struggled shooting from the field (43.5%) plus their accuracy from the 3-point line (31%) and free throw stripe (66.3%) is pretty ugly. Now the A-Sun champs face Kentucky, who are ranked fourth nationally in rebounding and fifth in defensive field goal percentage (38%).

Laying 20-plus points with Kentucky this season has produced a 1-4 ATS record. Even though it’s a different squad in Lexington, we’d be remiss not to look at Calipari’s performance with Memphis in the first round over the last four years. Coach Cal and the Tigers went 4-0 as double-digit favorites in their NCAA Tournament opener during this span, but were just 1-3 ATS.

The total on the game is sitting at 138 and the Bucs don’t posses the firepower to keep up with the ‘Cats, so a low-scoring affair could be in order. However, Kentucky does have the athletes and shooters, if they’re on, to explode for 80-plus on anybody.

Barring a major upset, Kentucky would meet either No. 8 Texas or No. 9 Wake Forest on Saturday.

East Regional at San Jose - No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Washington (7:20 p.m. EDT)

If you handicap this game based on the conferences, then Marquette (22-11 SU, 14-18 ATS) would be a no-brainer since it played in the highly regarded Big East and Washington (22-11 SU, 16-10 ATS) played in the Pac 10, which was awful this season. However, you still suit up for 40 minutes and if you look at the big picture, the Huskies could be the play in this spot.

For starters, Washington is the Pac 10 champion, whether you feel that’s an accomplishment or not. Lorenzo Romar’s team does enter the tournament with a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) and their 12-2 the last 14. The non-conference schedule wasn’t exactly tough but they were competitive in a loss to Georgetown (66-74) and the Huskies beat Texas A&M (73-64), even though the Aggies lost their second-leading scorer Derek Roland to a devastating leg injury.

Take away those outcomes and the Huskies have proven that they’re still a talented squad. Quincy Pondexter (19.8 PPG) and Isaiah Thomas (17.1 PPG) lead an offense that averaged 79.8 PPG and the attack shoots a decent percent (72) from the free throw line as well. Washington likes to play in the seventies and eighties, while Thursday’s opponent wouldn’t mind a game in the low sixties.

Marquette has some names to follow too, most notably Lazar Hayward (18.1 PPG). The senior leader helped the club rebound from a 2-5 start in conference play and eventually took them to the Big East semifinals, where they ran out of gas against Georgetown (57-80). The Golden Eagles finished conference play with an 11-7 mark, which seems good on paper and to the amateur player. If you investigate further, only two (Georgetown, Louisville) of those 11 wins came against the seven other Big East teams that were invited to the tournament.

Buzz Williams is a solid coach and he’s done a lot with this squad that lost three key players last year, but facts are facts folks. Sure they went 7-3 in their last 10 but four of those games were overtime affairs, which saw Marquette go 3-1. Are the Golden Eagles legit or just lucky?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence offered up some quality trends that favor Marquette in this situation. He said, “Big East clubs won all three meetings against Pac 10 teams this year, plus schools from the Big East have gone 6-0 against the number in the tournament against Pac 10 foes the last two years.”

The Huskies (7-7) and Golden Eagles (9-7) didn’t exactly boast stellar records outside of their homecourt this season, but they didn’t have losing marks either.

Marquette has been installed as a short favorite (-1.5) in this contest and the total (143) is geared towards Washington’s pace. The Golden Eagles can play either way but running with the Huskies might be dangerous for Williams’ squad. Plus you have to factor in the environment of San Jose too, which is in Pac 10 country. Traveling from Seattle is a lot easier than making a long-distance trip from Milwaukee.

A second round battle against No. 3 New Mexico or No. 14 Montana will be on deck Saturday for the winner.

Midwest Regional at Providence - No. 3 Georgetown vs. No. 14 Ohio (7:25 p.m. EDT)

When you size Georgetown (23-10 SU, 17-12 ATS) up on paper against Ohio (21-14 SU, 18-12ATS) it looks like a mismatch, which is why the oddsmakers have listed the Hoyas as 13 ½-point favorites. However, the looks may be deceiving here.

Head coach John Thompson III and the Hoyas boast some serious talent in both the frontcourt and backcourt. The four-headed monster of Austin Freeman (16.7 PPG), Greg Monroe (16.1 PPG), Chris Wright (14.8 PPG) and Jason Clark (10.6 PPG) all have potential to play at the next level. However, the team is lacking depth after this quartet and it showed in their record. Some pundits are a little surprised that a No. 3 seed has 10 losses, which is pretty high if you think about it especially when you consider that 45 of the 65 teams in the field has less than 10 losses.

Ohio wasn’t expected to win the MAC Tournament but it rallied for an 81-75 overtime victory against Akron in the championship. Armon Bassett, an Indiana transfer with tournament experience, scored 25 in the finale and will be looked upon for leadership against the Hoyas.

Gamblers will face a tough predicament here since both schools have been golden versus the number lately. The Hoyas closed the year on a 5-0 ATS run and that was against much tougher outs. Meanwhile, Ohio blasted the bookmakers with an 11-1 stretch to end the seasons, which included three straight covers in the conference tournament.

Even though the Hoyas’ defense will be more athletic, the ‘Cats have been known to put the ball in the hoop (74.2 PPG). And their defense (68.7 PPG) isn’t a brick wall either. When you look at those facts, an ‘over’ play might be the call here. The total is hovering around 138 points and if Georgetown hits its shots from the outside, this one could be ‘over’ early.

The winner of this game will advance to the second round for a meeting against Tennessee or San Diego State.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-17-2010, 11:20 PM

Session IV, Thursday

Bettors have a quartet of late-night games to wager on Thursday. Let’s take a look at all four of those matchups and more…

**Lehigh vs. Kansas**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Kansas (32-2 straight up, 14-16-1 against the spread) as a 27-point favorite with a total of 150. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had the Jayhawks as 26-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 146.

--Lehigh (22-10 SU, 3-0 ATS) won the Patriot League’s automatic bid by capturing a 74-59 win over Lafayette in the finals of the conference tournament. The Mountain Hawks took the cash as 6 ½-point favorites. C.J. McCollum had a game-high 20 points and seven rebounds, while Zahir Carrington finished with 18 points, 10 boards and four blocked shots.

--Lehigh has only faced one team in the NCAA Tournament field. The Mountain Hawks lost a 65-53 decision at Richmond in the season opener of a game that was off the board.

--Since losing at Oklahoma St. on Feb. 27, Kansas has won five in a row while going 4-1 versus the number. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 Tournament by beating Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Kansas St. They beat the Wildcats for the third time this year in the finals, winning a 72-64 decision as six-point favorites. Marcus Morris had 18 points and eight rebounds to lead KU past K-St.

--Bill Self’s team has failed to cover the number in six straight double-digit ‘chalk’ spots. For the season, KU is 8-12-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

--KU advanced to the Sweet 16 last season before losing to Michigan St. If the Jayhawks and Spartans get that far this year, they’ll square off again. This time around, they would meet in the Midwest Region semifinals in St. Louis.

--Senior guard Sherron Collins is the catalyst for the nation’s top-ranked team. He averages 15.6 points and 4.4 assists per game, but those numbers don’t tell the real story. Collins is the backbone of this squad with no fear whatsoever. He can take and make big shots and perhaps most importantly, he’s “been there, done that” in terms of playing a crucial role in KU’s run to the national title two seasons ago.

--A No. 1 seed has never lost to a No. 16 seed in NCAA Tournament history. Assuming this game is no exception, Kansas will take on the No. Iowa-UNLV winner on Saturday night in Oklahoma City.

--Sportsbook.com has KU listed as the plus-200 ‘chalk’ to cut the nets down in Indianapolis (risk $100 to win $200).

--The ‘under’ is 18-12 overall for KU, 4-1 in its last five games. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ went 2-1 in Lehigh’s only three games with a total.

**Wake Forest vs. Texas**

--This ACC/Big 12 battle will be waged in New Orleans and tip off approximately 30 minutes following the conclusion of the Kentucky-East Tennessee St. game. The winner gets the UK-ETSU winner.

--LVSC opened Texas (24-9 SU, 10-19 ATS) as a two-point favorite with a total of 148. As of Wednesday afternoon, most spots were listing the Longhorns as five-point favorites with the total reduced to 146. Gamblers can take the Demon Deacons on the money line for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

--Wake Forest (19-10 SU, 15-11 ATS) limps into the NCAA Tournament with five losses in its last six games, including an embarrassing 83-62 loss to Miami in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. The Hurricanes, who led 41-27 at intermission, never let the Deacs cut the deficit to single digits in the second half and won going away as 3 ½-point underdogs. Ish Smith had 14 points and five assists for Wake in defeat.

--Dino Gaudio’s team has been an underdog nine times this year, compiling a 6-3 spread record.

--Texas is in the midst of an atrocious 3-17 ATS slide and has dropped five in a row versus the number. As single-digit favorites this year, the Longhorns are 5-6 ATS.

--Rick Barnes’ club has played 12 games against teams in the field, winning five of those contests. Keep in mind that the ‘Horns lost three times to Baylor. As for Wake, it won (outright, that is) six of its 10 games against NCAA Tourney teams.

--The ‘over’ has cashed in four consecutive games for Texas and is 17-11 overall for the ‘Horns.

--The ‘under’ is on a lucrative 10-2 run in Wake Forest games. For the season, the ‘under’ is 15-10 overall for the Deacs.

**Montana vs. New Mexico**

--LVSC opened New Mexico (29-4 SU, 18-12-2 ATS) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 135. As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Lobos as nine-point ‘chalk’ with zero movement in the total. The Grizzlies are plus-350 to win outright (risk $100 to win $350).

--Montana (22-9 SU, 17-11 ATS) won the Big Sky’s automatic bid thanks to a spectacular performance by Anthony Johnson in the finals of the league tournament. The Grizzlies rallied from a 20-point deficit at halftime to beat Weber St. 66-65 thanks to Johnson’s game-winning jumper with 10 ticks remaining. Johnson finished with 42 points, outscoring the Big Sky’s regular-season champs 34-25 in the second half. He scored the Grizzlies’ last 21 points to propel them to a No. 14 seed in the Big Dance.

--Steve Alford’s squad garnered the No. 3 seed in the East Region by winning the Mountain West’s regular-season title. However, the Lobos had their 15-game winning streak snapped by San Diego St. in the MWC Tourney semifinals. The Aztecs captured a 72-69 victory as 2 ½-point underdogs.

--New Mexico has been a solid money-making team to support this year, but we’d be remiss if we didn’t note its recent 1-5 ATS slump.

--Montana has thrived in the underdog role, cashing tickets at a 5-2 ATS clip. The Grizzlies faced just one school in the NCAA field, losing by a 63-59 count at Washington. With that said, they easily took the money as 19-point road underdogs. We should also note a 68-55 win at Oregon as 13 ½-point ‘dogs.

--Johnson is the only Montana player who scores in double figures, averaging 19.3 points per game.

--Juco transfer Darington Hobson has been the spark throughout UNM’s breakout campaign. Hobson leads the Lobos in scoring (16.2 PPG), rebounding (9.2 RPG) and assists (4.6 APG).

--The ‘over’ has cashed in five straight games for the Lobos, but they have seen the ‘under’ go 14-12-1 overall this year. The ‘over’ is 6-4-1 when their totals are in the 130s.

--The ‘over’ was on a 7-0 run for Montana before the ‘under’ hit in each of its last two outings. For the season, totals have been a wash (11-11) for the Grizzlies. The ‘under’ is 6-4 when their totals are in the 130s.

--The winner will face the Marquette-Washington survivor in a second-round matchup Saturday in San Jose.

**Tennessee vs. San Diego State**

--LVSC opened Tennessee (25-8 SU, 13-16-1 ATS) as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 133. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had the Vols listed as three-point ‘chalk’ with the total reduced to 126. Bettors can take the Aztecs to win outright for a plus-140 return (risk $100 to win $140).

--San Diego State (25-8 SU, 17-13 ATS) has been a bubble team the last couple of years, but it removed all doubt of making the NCAAs last weekend by beating UNLV 55-45 in the finals of the MWC Tourney at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Steve Fisher’s team won outright against the Runnin’ Rebels as a four-point underdog. Kawhi Leonard was the catalyst with 16 points and 21 rebounds for the winners.

--Tennessee saw its five-game winning streak snapped Saturday in Nashville, where Kentucky crushed the Volunteers 74-45 in the SEC Tournament semifinals. The Wildcats took the cash as 4 ½-point favorites.

--Bruce Pearl’s squad is the only one in the field that can claim a win over a pair of No. 1 seeds in Kansas and Kentucky. (Louisville has a pair of wins against a top seed but both came over the ‘Cuse.) With that in mind, UT’s players were baffled by a No. 6 seed. “A six seed? A six seed? That’s definitely motivation, knowing we deserved more,” Scotty Hopson told The Tennesseean.

--The Vols have a veteran team and a balanced offensive attack. Senior center Wayne Chism averages a team-high 12.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game.

--San Diego St. owns a 6-4 spread record in 10 underdog situations this season. Meanwhile, UT has posted a 4-5 ATS mark in nine games as a single-digit favorite.

--The ‘under’ has cashed at an incredible 18-7-1 overall clip for the Vols.

--The ‘over’ is 15-12-1 overall for the Aztecs.

--The winner will face the winner of Georgetown-Ohio on Saturday in Providence, RI.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--I’m not into women’s hoops at all, but I have fielded a number of e-mails inquiring about future odds for the gals’ NCAA Tourney. Sportsbook.com has UConn as the overwhelming minus-800 favorite (risk $800 to win $100), while the field (EVERY other team) is a plus-500 wager (risk $100 to win $500).

--Check out ESPN’s Bobby Knight lobbying for a head-coaching job for the second straight year. At this time last year, the NCAA’s all-time leader in wins was expressing interest in a pair of SEC jobs at Georgia and Alabama.

--Siena’s Clarence Jackson (14.0 PPG) was upgraded from “questionable” to “probable” on Wednesday afternoon. Jackson rolled his ankle at practice this past Saturday. The Saints have won first-round games over Ohio St. and Vandy the last two years. They are a No. 13 seed that’ll face fourth-seeded Purdue in the first round.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-17-2010, 11:22 PM

Location Advantages

While it is generally regarded that travel and location make a big difference in the regular season for college basketball it can often be an overlooked factor in the neutral site NCAA tournament games. While many may have had gripes about the seeding in this year’s bracket there really were few overwhelming location advantages for the first round games. In most years there are some clear advantages, such as Duke or North Carolina playing in Raleigh or UCLA playing in Anaheim but these venues should mainly be neutral courts this season, although they certainly are not all created equally. Here is a look at some of the location advantages for the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament.

Providence, Rhode Island
Villanova is the top seeded team in this grouping and the Wildcats have a very manageable trip clocking in around 271 miles from Philadelphia. First round opponent Robert Morris must cross the state of Pennsylvania but all things considered this is not bad draw for the Colonials our of Pittsburgh. Should Villanova advance as expected the advantage would be more significant as St. Mary’s is making a long trip across the country and while Richmond is on the east coast, it is solid trek north of around 514 miles. Richmond will have a big advantage over St. Mary’s in terms of location with Moraga, California over 3,000 miles away from Providence. San Diego State obviously is making a long haul with the furthest distance traveled for any team in the tournament but it is not exactly an easy trip for Tennessee. Georgetown gets to stay out east but will not enjoy a major location advantage as they did a few years ago.

New Orleans, Louisiana
At first glance Baylor looks to have drawn a very favorable location draw playing in New Orleans but its first round opponent is actually significantly closer as Sam Houston State is just 393 miles from New Orleans. Should the Bears advance to the sweet 16 a serious location edge could kick in playing in Houston but Waco is still 516 miles from the Big Easy, where a few of the key players for Baylor hail from. Texas is slightly closer to New Orleans than Wake Forest but it is not exactly a short trip either. Kentucky would face a slight location disadvantage against the Longhorns in a potential round 2 match-up, but it would not be as significant as it looks. Notre Dame and Old Dominion are both a long ways from home for a very neutral site for that opening match-up.

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Kansas draws this region in Big XII country and it should be a manageable trip for the Jayhawk supporters. Kansas State also will open in this arena and those two rival schools should dominate the crowd. The first round foe for the Wildcats will actually be making a much shorter trip however as Denton, Texas is just 167 miles from Oklahoma City so North Texas will face one of the shorter first round trips in the field. Florida and BYU both travel significant distances to meet in the middle of the country but the timing may favor the east coast team with the morning start time. Northern Iowa will also enjoy a slight location edge in the first round match-up with UNLV but it still a significant journey.

San Jose, California
With the Pac-10 down this season there just were not a lot of quality teams out west to fit into this region so the result is long travel for many of the teams in this part of the bracket. Butler has to travel nearly twice as far as UTEP but it is still no real advantage for the Miners. Vanderbilt and Murray State are both making long trips and although Montana and New Mexico are western schools geographically, both still will surpass 1,000 miles to get to San Jose. The one big edge in this region may be for Washington. Seattle is still quite the trip to San Jose at 841 miles but it is almost a third of the distance that Marquette must travel. Marquette will play an evening game on the west coast which could make for a difficult set-up but the Golden Eagles survived a similar situation last year.

Buffalo, New York
While Syracuse was given the fourth #1 seed and is generally being regarded as the most vulnerable of the top seeds, the Orange draws the biggest location edge. Buffalo is only 150 miles from Syracuse and although the first round opponent Vermont will make a reasonable trip the second round opponent will be at a great disadvantage. Gonzaga certainly can make a fair complaint about being seeded poorly as a #8 seed but doing so right near the home den of the #1 seed makes the draw even more of a challenge. Florida State would also be heavily silenced in a very Orange heavy crowd. West Virginia also drew a nice venue in Buffalo, going just 287 miles to get here. First round foe Morgan State did not have travel much further coming from Baltimore but the potential second round foe, either Clemson or Missouri would be at a significant disadvantage. Should Syracuse advance in the tournament they will face the other end of the location situation, getting shipped out west to Salt Lake City. While that will mean daunting travel, few teams seeded highly in the bracket are western teams with the exception of #7 seed BYU, who would enjoy a nearly unfair advantage playing close to home should they get through the first two rounds.

Jacksonville, Florida
Duke is the top team in this grouping and this is a manageable trip for the Blue Devils as there are no teams in this region that will be really close to home. Wisconsin fans travel well generally but this will be a long trip for the Badgers and first round foe Wofford is coming from just 377 miles away in their attempt for an upset. Temple, Cornell, Louisville, and California all have long trips and there should be no real edge in those games as this arena should be Duke dominated in the crowds.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Ohio State fans should take over this arena, coming just 448 miles from Columbus. Xavier and Minnesota are playing about as true of a neutral site game as possible at least geographically as Minneapolis and Cincinnati are nearly the exact same distance from Milwaukee. It will be interesting to see if the Buckeyes crowd backs the home state Musketeers or if a Big Ten country arena is pulling for the Gophers. Pittsburgh has a reasonable trip to this venue but would face a location disadvantage in round two against either Minnesota or Xavier. Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech will be treated to a de facto road game most likely with this Midwest crowd.

Spokane, Washington
Houston and Maryland, and Purdue and Siena will face neutral crowds as all will face daunting travel. Utah State jumps out as an immediate location edge and it is true that the Aggies had to be pleased to draw this location. Logan is still over 650 miles away however as traversing the state of Idaho the long way is no small journey. That said, it is less than a third of the distance that Texas A&M fans must travel. New Mexico State draws Michigan State in a western venue but both schools are a significant distance from this arena. This is a venue where none of the top teams fit in and thus two #4 seeds were displaced here with long travel.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-17-2010, 11:24 PM

Consensus Final Four Picks

There might not be a more enjoyable time for gamblers out there than the NCAA Tournament, which tips off on Thursday. Bettors will have 32 games on the slate to get some instant gratification on at the betting shops. Yet some folks will be focusing more on long-term profits as well. So for the fourth straight year, VegasInsider.com has polled its best and brightest college basketball handicappers for their fearless predictions on the upcoming event.

Over the past three seasons, our experts have provided their selections for who will be in the Final Four and the eventual champion as well. In 2007, one-third of our stable correctly picked the Gators to cut down the nets in Atlanta. Six of our ‘cappers backed Kansas to win it all in 2008.

Brian Gabrielle, Doc’s Sports and Jimmy Boyd were closest to picking all four of last year’s national semifinalists with three teams. Meanwhile, 12 of our handicappers successfully tabbed the Tar Heels to win the national championship.

A quick glance at who our guys have going to Indianapolis will show that they don’t particularly believe in fairy tale endings. Out of the 22 handicappers we asked, it is the opinion of 14 of them that this is the Jayhawks tournament to lose. Kentucky was a distant second with our experts as just four of them pick John Calipari’s team would cut down the nets in Indianapolis.

Jason Johnson and Doc’s Sports are the only two experts boldly selecting all four top seeds to make it to the Final Four.

It isn’t hard to see why the majority of our ‘cappers took Kansas in this tourney. The Jayhawks were listed as the No. 1 overall seed for this year’s tournament. To give you an idea of how much our guys loved Bill Self and his team, consider that 20 of our 22 polled handicappers took them to come out of the Midwest Region.

“Kansas has played well all season long and with solid guard play, a big man in the paint, and a veteran coach that already has a national title under his belt, this team has everything you need to win. Plus, they have the added benefit of avenging their loss to Michigan State in the regional semis from a year ago," says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Jason Johnson. It’s not hard to back Sherron Collins, Xavier Henry and the rest of the Jayhawks to win their second championship in three years a 2/1 return on your money.

Barry Holthaus concurs, “Overall, it is hard to pick against Kansas. The Jayhawks are the total package. Guard Sherron Collins can take over a game in the final minutes and can hit clutch free throws. This year's tournament reminds me of last year's where North Carolina was the team to beat, and they got the job done.”

What is interesting about Kentucky in this year’s tourney is the fact that they were not only second-most picked team to win the national championship; they were the second-most picked team to win the East Region. The Wildcats received 10 votes to win in Syracuse, while No. 2 seed West Virginia were tabbed by 11 of them.

Syracuse was the top choice of our guys to emerge with a ticket punched for Lucas Oil Stadium out of the West Region with eight votes. The South Region is split even between the top-seeded Blue Devils and Baylor with eight nods apiece. Villanova also got some love from coming out of the Big East with five handicappers choosing them to win the South.

The Bears were one of the more popular picks to be a “sleeper” in this year’s bracket with three handicappers. While it’s strange to show a three-seed in this spot, it goes to show how top heavy this tournament is for our experts.

“Baylor is the most undervalued team in the tournament despite gaining a #3 seed and find themselves in the weakest of the 4 regions, the West,” says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper James Manos. “The Bears have only one bad loss (at Colorado) and were extremely competitive in every single one of their defeats. Baylor has the pieces for a deep run into March as they have a quality, experienced backcourt and a solid big man in (Ekpe) Udoh.”

As if Manos’ thinking isn’t enough to sway gamblers to take Baylor, consider that you can bet them at a 5/1 price (risk $100 to win $500) at Sportsbook.com.

Andy Iskoe believes that a team from the woefully bad SEC could raise a few eyebrows on people as they drink from a straw. “Tennessee is a talented though erratic team capable of being upset by SDSU in the first round or playing well enough to make the Elite Eight or even the Final Four. They are the only team to have defeated both Kansas and Kentucky this year, a pair of No. 1 seeds that are each 32-2. They are in what I consider to be by far the toughest of the four brackets as they'd likely have to face Georgetown, Ohio State and either Maryland or Kansas to reach the Final Four but as they showed a few times this year the Vols have the talent to compete and succeed at the highest lever -- they can also stumble as they've shown by losing three games as favorites of -6 or more.”

The sixth-seeded Vols don’t have a terribly difficult trip to make for their games this season. Bruce Pearl’s club starts its run at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center in Providence and then would go out to St. Louis for the Regional Rounds, so they aren’t going to suffer much jet lag. And if they can get out of the Midwest Region, the trip to Indy isn’t too long for the good folks of Knoxville. If you like the Volunteers, you can bet them to win their region at 25/1 (risk $100 to win $2500) at Sportsbook.com.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-18-2010, 01:13 PM

San Diego State (25-8) vs. Tennessee (25-8)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Dunkin' Donuts Center (12,600) -- Providence, Rhode Island. Television: CBS. NCAA Tournament Record: SDSU 0-5, Tennessee 13-18. Series Record: Tennessee leads, 2-0.

GAME NOTES: In search of their first-ever NCAA Tournament win, the 11th-seeded San Diego State Aztecs take aim at the sixth-seeded Tennessee Volunteers in the first round at the Dunkin' Donuts Center. The survivor of this Midwest Regional pairing will tangle with either Georgetown or Ohio University in the second round on Saturday.

The Aztecs have won nine of their last 10 games and included in that run is a victory over UNLV in the Mountain West Tournament title game on Saturday. It marked the third MWC Championship for SDSU, which is making its sixth NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2006. The Aztecs however, have yet to advance past the first round, although they came close in an 87-83 loss to Indiana in their last appearance.

On the flip side, the Vols received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after they were thrashed by Kentucky, 74-45, in the semifinals of the SEC Championship on Saturday. That loss obviously hurt the team's seeding, as Tennessee is sixth despite 25 wins, including triumphs over Kansas and Kentucky, two No.1 seeds in this event. The Vols are making their 18th NCAA Tournament appearance and fifth straight. Tennessee is 13-18 all-time in the event, including a 9-7 mark in the first round.

Tennessee has won both prior meetings with SDSU on the hardwood, with the last clash coming back in 1988.

If the Aztecs are to spring the upset tonight they will have to do so behind stingy defense and solid rebounding. Those are two areas the team has fared well in, as SDSU is holding foes to 61.8 ppg, while outrebounding them by 6.7 rpg. Kawhi Leonard has recorded 15 double-doubles on the season and he paces SDSU with 12.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg and 45 steals. The MWC Freshman of the Year showed his dominance on the glass by ripping down a whopping 21 caroms in the tourney title game. Malcolm Thomas also provides help on the boards with 7.8 rpg and he even chips in with 11.0 ppg. Billy White tacks on 11.2 ppg and 4.4 rpg for SDSU, while D.J. Gay contributes 10.3 ppg and 3.2 apg.

The Vols are averaging 73.6 ppg, but not at the expense of any defense, as they are forcing 16.8 turnovers per game and holding opponents to just 39.4 percent shooting from the field. Wayne Chism and Scotty Hopson are tied for the team-lead in scoring at 12.5 ppg, with Chism is also ripping down a team- high 7.1 rpg and Hopson recording 34 steals. Bobby Maze adds 9.6 ppg and 3.0 apg to the rotation for Tennessee, while J.P. Prince logs 9.3 ppg and a team- high 52 steals.

This should be an interesting game, as SDSU's ability to dominate the boards gives it a chance for an upset. The Vols though, have the talent and athleticism to overcome the Aztecs in the end.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-18-2010, 02:47 PM

Thursday, March 18Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +125 500 ( NHL DOG )
Boston - Over 5.5 500

St. Louis - 7:00 PM ET St. Louis +111 500
NY Rangers - Over 5.5 500

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Carolina +133 500 ( NHL DOG )
Carolina - Over 6 500

Ottawa - 7:00 PM ET Ottawa -114 500
Atlanta - Over 5.5 500

New Jersey - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey -115 500
Toronto - Under 5.5 500

Buffalo - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo -123 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5.5 500

Phoenix - 7:30 PM ET Phoenix -135 500
Florida - Under 5.5 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +150 500
Nashville - Under 5.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:30 PM ET Dallas +102 500
Dallas - Over 5.5 500

San Jose - 10:00 PM ET Vancouver -134 500
Vancouver - Over 5.5 500

Chicago - 10:30 PM ET Los Angeles -115 500
Los Angeles - Over 5.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, March 18Game Score Status Pick Amount

Orlando - 7:00 PM ET Miami +2 500
Miami - Under 188 500

New Orleans - 9:30 PM ET New Orleans +14.5 500
Denver - Over 217 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-18-2010, 02:55 PM

Your evening pod's:

Northern Iowa - 7:10 PM ET UNLV -1 500 ( POD )
UNLV - Over 116 500

East Tennessee St. - 7:15 PM ET Kentucky -18.5 300
Kentucky - Over 136 300

Washington - 7:20 PM ET Washington +1 500 ( POD )
Marquette - Under 140 500

Ohio - 7:25 PM ET Ohio +13 500
Georgetown - Under 137.5 500 ( TOTAL OF THE NIGHT )

Southern Mississippi - 8:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi +3.5 500
Louisiana Tech - Over 124.5 500

Lehigh - 9:30 PM ET Lehigh +25.5 200
Kansas - Over 146.5 300

Wake Forest - 9:35 PM ET Texas -5 300
Texas - Under 148 300

Montana - 9:40 PM ET New Mexico -8.5 500 ( BLOWOUT OF THE NIGHT )
New Mexico - Over 133 500

San Diego St. - 9:45 PM ET Tennessee -3.5 500
Tennessee - Over 127 500

Good Luck Gang !

**StarDust Bum** · 03-18-2010, 06:23 PM

Opening Night NCAA Intrigue

Top seeds Kansas and Kentucky don’t figure to have a lot or work on their hands in their opening games and No.3 seeds New Mexico and Georgetown are expected to move on and play on Saturday, but what about the other four games. This is where close contests are not only presumed, but upsets are thought to be a real possibility. Bring the shovel and start digging.

Are six seeds secure?

Marquette and Tennessee will both wear the favorite’s hat, but is it a snug fit or one that could be blown off under uncertain conditions. The Golden Eagles (22-11, 17-10 ATS) have won six of the last eight games, however have had issues with teams that prefer to play at fast pace. In three games in this stretch, the height-challenged Marquette squad has surrendered 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.

In comes Washington, on a serious roll (7-0, 6-1 ATS) as Pac-10 postseason champs. The Huskies average 79.8 points per game and like to “floor it” on offense. Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) has covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games and No.11 seeds that that average over 73 points a game are prime material to pull first round upsets. Washington is receiving 1.5-points at Bookmaker.com with total of 143, yet keep in mind the former Warriors from Milwaukee are 7-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Prior to SEC semi-final contest, Tennessee (25-8, 13-17 ATS) had won five in a row and seven of eight and looking like a team on the come. The Volunteers brutally grotesque loss to Kentucky by 29-point evidently has left an impression against Mountain West team that won conference tournament on the road literally, with smallish spread.

Tennessee has covered their last four outings off a spread loss, however are only 3-7-1 ATS in Big Dance tournament games. The Vols play much better from the lead, since they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point land.

San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) is not terribly tall, yet super aggressive on the offensive boards, accounting for +7 rebound margin. Like Tennessee, the Aztecs playing outstanding defense (40.5 vs. 39.4 for Vols) and they convert on 47.7 percent of shot attempts. S.D. State stifled UNLV on their own floor in MWC title tilt, holding them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy and they are 22-9 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with only three covers the last 10 times they were the preferred choice.

8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8 who knows

In the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed has held a slight edge with 23-21 SU record and 23-19-2 ATS mark. That would give Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) a narrow margin in theory and they are one-point dogs to UNLV.

The Panthers are balanced and go 10 deep and don’t beat themselves. Northern Iowa is never in a hurry offensively, with C Jordan Eglseder and F Adam Koch the inside presence and bombers like Ali Farokhmanesh to do the scoring. UNI also can tie-up teams up on defense, holding them to 54.3 points per game (40.3 percent) and are willing to do the work for the entire shot clock if necessary. This patient club is 8-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) had their six game winning streak snapped in the MWC finals. The Rebels have a stellar backcourt with Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield; however do not have a starter more than 6’8 to go against Northern Iowa’s big guys. UNLV is 15-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Lon Kruger the last three seasons, which gives this the feel of last basket wins conflict.

The other 8 vs. 9 matchup is more about survival than just being close encounter. Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) has wallowed losing five of six. Al-Farouq Amino is their most productive offensive weapon and the Demon Deacons do a descent job working the glass, but lack consistent scoring from the guard spots. Wake is just 1-10 ATS in previous NCAA tournament tilts.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) fell like housing values, going from No.1 in the country to an eighth seed in the course of the season, an unprecedented event. As the year has worn on, its crystal clear this team lacks chemistry, focus and dreadful point guard play exacerbates the situation. Texas is a five point favorite for whatever reason and is 3-11 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or contests have been played this season. Anybody have a coin?

**StarDust Bum** · 03-18-2010, 06:27 PM

Thursday Tips

The Thursday NBA card will likely be overshadowed by the first day of March Mayhem, but TNT will televise a pair of games, allowing bettors an alternative to college hoops. The battle of the Sunshine State leads off the double-header with the Heat hosting the Magic, followed by the Nuggets entertaining the Hornets.

Magic (48-21 SU, 37-31-1 ATS) at Heat (35-33 SU, 34-34 ATS)

These two Southeast Division rivals meet for the final team in the regular season as Orlando tries to even up the series at two games apiece (7:00 PM EST). The Magic will be playing with no rest following Wednesday's home win over the Spurs. San Antonio ran out Miami on Tuesday in the opening leg of a trip through Florida, as the Heat fell to the Spurs, 88-76.

The Magic have improved greatly on the road since a mid-season slump away from Amway Arena. Orlando is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS the last nine on the highway, even though its last three victories are over the Wizards, Nets, and Sixers. Stan Van Gundy's squad has limited eight of the last nine opponents to 100 points or less, while ten of the previous 13 games have finished 'under' the total.

Miami's six-game winning streak at the AAA was halted by San Antonio, but the only positive sign from the loss was the Heat allowing less than 100 points for the sixth consecutive game. The 'under' against the Spurs did end a six-game 'over' streak at home for the Heat, while Erik Spoelstra's team is now 5-2 ATS the last seven in South Florida.

The Heat owns the upper-hand in the series with a pair of victories over the Magic during the first two months of the season. Miami edged Orlando in central Florida the night before Thanksgiving, 99-98 on a late Michael Beasley tip-in. The Heat cashed as 9 ½-point 'dogs, the first win in Orlando since February 15, 2006. Miami chased Orlando out less than a month later at home, 104-86, again covering easily as four-point home underdogs. The Magic avenged those two losses with a 96-80 pasting of the Heat in late February, cashing as 11 ½-point favorites.

Hornets (33-36 SU, 31-37-1 ATS) at Nuggets (46-22, 31-32-5 ATS)

New Orleans continues a five-game road trip with the final meeting against Denver, trying to beat the Nuggets for a second time. The Hornets will be on the second of a back-to-back after Wednesday's ten-point loss at Golden State. The Nuggets, meanwhile, had to slug through a lackluster 97-87 win over the Wizards on Tuesday, the first home game following a four-game roadie.

The Hornets have nearly dropped out of playoff contention in the Western Conference after losing nine of their previous 12 games. The month of March has not been a pleasant one for backers of New Orleans with a 1-7 ATS run. Jeff Bower's club has struggled against the best teams in the West, going 5-16 SU and 8-12-1 ATS versus the top seven clubs in playoff contention.

The Nuggets have won seven of eight with the only hiccup coming in a three-point road loss to the Rockets. Denver has failed to cover back-to-back games for only the second time since early January, going 10-2-1 ATS the last 13 off an ATS loss. George Karl's team is just 4-6 ATS the last ten at Pepsi Center, but seven of those games have finished 'over' the total.

Denver topped New Orleans, 102-95 in the Big Easy on March 12, as the Nuggets closed out the game with a 29-20 fourth quarter. The Hornets managed covers in the first two meetings, including a 116-110 overtime setback at the Pepsi Center as 12-point 'dogs in late January. New Orleans has not won in Denver since Thanksgiving Night in 2008, a span of six games.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- It's amazing how the tables have turned in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff race over the last month. The Bucks needed to make a run, while the Bobcats were slowly disappearing in the race. Both these teams have straightened things out, while the Raptors and Bulls can't get out of their own way. Toronto has dropped nine of eleven, but bounced back with Wednesday's last-second victory over Atlanta. Chicago is dealing with a multitude of injuries, while losing nine straight games. Following Wednesday's setback at Dallas, the Bulls have been listed as a double-digit underdog four consecutive times.

-- One team that has definitely not turned the corner is the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves. Kurt Rambis' squad is riding an 11-game losing skid, while dropping 17 of 18 since a four-game winning streak in February. The low point of this slump was Sunday in a 14-point loss at Sacramento, in which the Wolves trailed by as many 34 points. That was trumped two days later when Minnesota allowed a season-high 152 points at Phoenix, the second time the Wolves have yielded at least 146 points this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-18-2010, 06:28 PM

Trend Report - Thursday

Magic at Heat – The Magic are 0-6 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since March 21, 1997 as a favorite with no rest after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Heat are 0-6 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since December 02, 2007 after a game at home in which they scored at least 25 fewer points than in the game before.

Hornets at Nuggets – The Hornets are 0-5 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since January 03, 2009 as a road dog with no rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since December 25, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Nuggets are 6-0-1 ATS (6.4 ppg) since January 22, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.

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