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**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 01:25 AM

Big Dance Notes

Folks, this is more what an NCAA Tournament should look like!

After an alarming drop in mid-major qualification for the Big Dance in recent seasons, this year's Selection Committee ought to be applauded for standing up for the "little guys" a bit more than we have been seeing in recent campaigns, when the trend was to make room for the BCS-conference schools whenever possible. But the Committee took a deep breath on Selection Sunday and properly rewarded the likes of Utah State, UTEP, and the Mountain West Conference when making sure all were properly represented (and deservedly so) in the final NCAA field of 65. Indeed, with eight at-large bids this season (twice as many as a year ago, and the most since 2006), the mid-major ranks posted their first improvement in that category since 2004, ending a six-year run of decreasing representation in the Big Dance.

(Don't worry, we'll eventually get around to talking about the top-seeded teams that will likely comprise most if not all of the Final Four. But for the moment, it's a bit more interesting to talk about the extremities of the 65-team field!.)

Still, the composition of this year's at-large field has come under a lot of scrutiny from the talking heads at ESPN, who universally condemned the overall quality of this year's "bubble" and at-large ranks, which some (notably Jay Bilas) labeled as the "softest" in history. Perhaps Bilas and others have a point, but it's worth noting that we were all saying the same sorts of things a year ago when decrying the 2009 "bubble" as one of the softest in memory, too. By us, however, this year's Selection Sunday was not too different from most seasons, where there is always controversy for the final few spots in the Dance and where, as usual, candidates for the final at-large slots had various degrees of flaws on their respective resumes'. The difference this season is that the Selection Committee rewarded achievement (UTEP and Utah State both winning regular-season conference championships when finishing strongly before being upset in conference tourney finals) over some of the computer and strength-of-schedule arguments that had tipped the scales in favor of BCS-conference schools in recent years.

One thing we do agree about with Bilas and his ESPN comrades is the desire for the tournament not to expand anytime soon to 96 teams, which would further dilute an event that has been conducted smoothly at the 64/65-team level since 1985. Although the usual Selection Sunday discussions that quibble about the final at-large bids are really often much ado about nothing, because teams barely slipping into the tournament rarely make deep runs in March anyway, given that their shortcomings often put them in bubble trouble in the first place. But it's a function of any cut-off point that debate will rage over the final invited teams. In this year's 65-team field, we were wondering about the Big Dance-worthiness of the likes of UTEP, Utah State, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, and Florida; there would be similar cut-line debate in a 96-team field, which this season would have likely meant Bilas, Gottlieb, Katz, and Digger Phelps arguing the merits of Missouri State, Weber State, Wright State, and Portland. Which would undoubtedly excite Jay Bilas and his buddies at ESPN no end, although we're sure we'd get a kick out of Rece Davis asking Bob Knight about the relative merits of Wright State and Portland's Big Dance credentials.

And, in essence, we have something of a 300-plus team event right now, with practically every Division I team having a shot at Big Dance qualification through the conference tournaments. Although Knight and some other old-timers still believe the conference tourneys are a waste of time, we have begun to appreciate their place in the college hoop calendar. The fact the Big Dance isn't bloated beyond its current 65-team level makes many of these conference tourneys special, because the reward is so tangible. We think the college hoop landscape would lose one of its most colorful aspects if the conference tourneys were made obsolete by an expanded Big Dance. Although we're bracing for some significant changes on the horizon with the NCAA apparently seriously considering expanding the event, and opting out of its current tourney contract with CBS and re-opening the process to the highest bidder(s), which could result in an expanded Big Dance. And soon... stay tuned.

At least the Sunday discussion among the ESPN pundits was a bit more civilized than a year ago, when Bilas and Dick Vitale in particular engaged in a prickly discussion about mid-major representation (and Saint Mary's exclusion a year ago in particular, which angered Vitale no end). Dickie V's main gripe this season was about Virginia Tech and poor Seth Greenberg once again being cruelly denied a Big Dance bid (does the Committee have something against bald guys like Greenberg, or Vitale, for that matter? ), and the exclusions of Illinois and Mississippi State were also discussed by Bilas and others, but that's just typical Selection Sunday fare.

(Were we involved, we might have questioned Florida getting a nod over Mississippi State, which last weekend sure looked like one of the 65 best teams in the land, and one of the 34 best at-large entries. We also sometimes wonder if SEC commissioner Mike Slive seriously promotes his league's basketball interests outside of Kentucky's; the SEC Tourney at Nashville last week was a war, but the event did little to help the SEC's bubble teams, with Florida rewarded for an early KO and the Maroon left with only the NIT despite their gallant run to the final vs. UK. But it's nothing we're going to lose any sleep over.)

Although the tone of the ESPN discussions take on a slightly sharper edge when Doug Gottlieb and Andy Katz get on camera. We would suggest they both take a lesson from studio host Rece Davis, and analyst Hubert Davis, each of whom seeming to put the events of the day in their proper perspective, talking a cue along from the way from the late Al McGuire, who also exhorted his colleagues to "have a little fun" with the basketball proceedings. Gottlieb's snarkiness works better on his ESPN radio gigs than in the TV studio, where his commentary often borders on disrespect (ex-Dookie Jay Williams could have been excused for having a word or two with Gottlieb after the latter's ongoing snide commentary on Selection Sunday), whereas Katz' demeanor seems a better fit for Face The Nation, where his dead-serious, no-humor, don't-you-dare-disagree-with-me commentary seems a better fit for being one of Bob Schieffer's Sunday morning guests discussing the economy or diplomacy in the middle east rather than being involved in any light basketball banter with Rece Davis & Co.

Although we applaud the Selection Committee for making room for a few extra mid-majors who could potentially add to the romance of the Big Dance, we didn't agree with everything done by Chairman Dan Guerrero and his colleagues, including the following;

1) Too much respect for the Big East? Like the Selection Committee, we also had eight Big East teams making the field in our final "Bracketology" projection, but thought they were generally pushed up a bit too high. Villanova (a 2 in the South) and Pitt (a 3 in the West) were, by us at least, each placed at least a line better than either deserved. A 12-loss Louisville (a 9 in the South) was the only Big East rep seeded lower than a 6. We also thought the Committee was a bit sloppy in placing the eight Big East teams, with only one in the Midwest and three in the South. There are also two (West Virginia and Marquette) in the same half of the East Region, when it would have been pretty easy and more uniform to just put two Big East teams in each region, with each of those in a different half. We did it in our brackets, why couldn't the Selection Committee do it as well?

2) Why give Duke the easiest region? Sorry, but we're not too impressed with the imbalance shown in some of the regions, with Duke an unwitting beneficiary. The Blue Devils' path to the Final Four looks a lot smoother than the other top seeds, especially with Robbie Hummel-less Purdue (playing more like a 7 or 8 seed, if that, the past few weeks), fading Villanova, and a dangerous but unproven NCAA entity Baylor (which hasn't posted a win in the Dance since the early 1950s) as the other "protected seeds" in Duke's South Region. Meanwhile, Kentucky (East) has to deal with heavyweight West Virginia, dangerous New Mexico, and no-nonsense Wisconsin as the protected seeds in its region, while Kansas will have to deal with another heavyweight, Ohio State, plus menacing Georgetown and explosive Maryland as the other top four seeds in the Midwest Region. What good was it for the Jayhawks and Wildcats to get the supposed "top two" seeds in the Dance, anyway?

3) Mid-majors vs. mid-majors. If there are enough mid-majors in the field, we'll usually get one or two at most two matchups between them in the first round. This year, we've got three (Butler vs. UTEP in the West, UNLV vs. Northern Iowa in the Midwest, and Richmond vs. Saint Mary's in the South), and a fourth if you want to include Temple vs. Cornell (East). Some cynics were wondering on Selection Sunday night if this wasn't a way for the Committee to simply protect some of the BCS-conference members from being exposed to an upset in the first round (although skeptics of those skeptics can point out that such matchups at least guarantee some mid-majors a chance to advance to the second round).

Other seeding observations...

It's bad to be an 8 or a 9 seed. The chances of any 8 or 9 seeds making it through the sub-regional are always worse than 11, 12, or 13 seeds that at least don't have to worry about facing a top seed until the second weekend. Thus, the 8s (Texas, Cal, UNLV, and Gonzaga) and 9s (Wake Forest, Louisville, Northern Iowa, and Florida State) that almost assuredly will be running into either Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, or Syracuse in the second round are probably not going to need to make any reservations for the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, the likes of 11s (Washington, Old Dominion, San Diego State, and Minnesota), 12s (Cornell, Utah State, New Mexico State, and UTEP), and even 13s (Wofford, Siena, Houston, and Murray State) each have a better chance of lasting until the second weekend than any 8s or 9s.

Best first-round matchup: Richmond vs. Saint Mary's (South Region, Thursday at Providence)...The 7-10 matchups are always intriguing, and this one could be the most interesting on the card, featuring a pair of very underrated mid-majors who could use a win in this game as a launching pad to the Sweet 16 or beyond, with laboring Villanova the likely second-round matchup. Richmond's dynamic backcourt combo of Kevin Anderson & David Gonzalvez spearheads a fascinating Spiders team put together by Pete Carril disciple Chris Mooney, whose troops implement a modified, more aggressive Princeton-style look on the attack end. Meanwhile, Saint Mary's features a legit "big" in 6'11 Omar Samhan (20.9 ppg), deadeye G Mickey McConnell (13.7 ppg and 52% triples), and the Gaels' latest Aussie import, 6-4 frosh Matthew Dellavedova (12.5 ppg), and recorded one of the most eye-opening wins of tournament week when blasting favored Gonzaga, 81-62, in the WCC finale at the Orleans Hotel Arena in Las Vegas..

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 01:26 AM

Mid-Majors to Watch

One unique phenomenon about first-round action is the chance to see some true David vs. Goliath matchups between reps from the "off" or "added" board conferences against some heavyweight opposition. While we haven't had a chance to get excited about a 16 seed upsetting a 1 seed for a long time (Purdue barely dodging the bullet against Western Carolina in 1996, 73-71, being the last truly close 1 vs. 16 call), we'd usually settle for some competitive showings by the longest shots in the first round. A year ago, 12 such "off" or "added" teams recorded a 5-6-1 spread mark in the opening-round games (excluding the play-in), though there have been years when these underdogs have collectively overachieved, and underachieved. As for what to look for in the first round, history indicates that Thursday’s point-spread performance is often a good indicator of what will happen on Friday; don't be afraid to jump on an emerging trend, either winning or losing, after the first day of sub-regional action, and Thursday often foretells Friday.

Lastly, every year, sub-regional action is spiced up with the presence of several "sleepers" who might be worth watching. Although we're not expecting any of the following to become "this year's George Mason" and make a run to the Final Four as Jim Larranaga's Patriots did in 2006, we'd still keep an eye on some of these under-the-radar reps who might be capable of pulling a first-round upset. And who knows...at this time four years ago, nobody was expecting George Mason to take a wild ride through the Dance, either.

Siena...The Saints are not a secret any longer after winning first-round games against Vanderbilt and Ohio State, respectively, the past two seasons, and survived a tougher-than-expected Metro-Atlantic race with only one blemish this season. Four starters from the lineups that wreaked Big Dance havoc in 2008 & 2009 return for one more shot as a seasoned, senior-laden team under HC Fran McCaffery, who ought to be on a short list for any schools looking to resurrect their programs (St. John's, perhaps? ). Bruising PF Alex Franklin (16.3 ppg) is a punishing force on the blocks, and along with skilled 6'0 jr. Ryan Rossiter (13.9 ppg) presents quite a frontline scoring combo, with each hitting better than 56% from the floor while maneuvering around the paint and baseline and rarely floating to the perimeter. Meanwhile, versatile 6-6 senior swingman Edwin Ubiles (15.2 ppg) remains a devilish matchup for smaller guards or slower forwards, sr. G Ronald Moore (7.8 ppg) is an experienced floor leader, and 6-3 wing Clarence Jackson (13.6 ppg) can loosen up any defense from 3-point land. We'll also bet that the CBS cameras will love McCaffery's wife Margie, who will be included in plenty of crowd shots from the Spokane Arena later this week.

Wofford...The Southern Conference has made its mark in the Dance lately, most notably Stephen Curry's Davidson team that advanced to the Elite 8 two years ago. We're not sure the Terriers (in their first-ever Big Dance) can advance that far, but this is a potentially-troublesome entry that beat both South Carolina and Georgia (at Athens) in pre-league play, played Pitt (albeit a bit shorthanded at the time) within three points in November, and was also competitive at both Illinois and Michigan State. Undersized, with no starters over 6'6, but extremely quick and well-disciplined. One of the "bigs" is PF Noah Dahlman, whose attack end work is limited to the paint but who nonetheless posted superb offensive numbers (16.8 ppg & 58% FGs), while Montana transfer G Cameron Rundles is one of many backcourt sparkplugs. The Terriers could prove a handful for first-round foe Wisconsin, which despite its protected seed status still didn't get assigned to its desired Milwaukee sub-regional and now must face Wofford in Jacksonville, not far from Terrier Country in South Carolina.

Montana...They're still talking about the one-man show that 6'3 sr. G Anthony Johnson displayed in the Big Sky Tourney finale at Weber State. All Johnson did was score the Grizzlies' last 21 points of the game en route to 42 on the night in a wild 66-65 win over the Wildcats, a game in which Montana once trailed by 22 points. Johnson, who enrolled in Missoula out of Yakima Valley JC because the Grizzlies were also going to offer a basketball scholarship to his hoops-playing wife, shot 51% from the floor (quite a feat for a G) while posting 19.6 ppg, and New Mexico HC Steve Alford will undoubtedly remind his Lobos how another recent Grizzlies team pulled a first-round shocker four years ago when beating favored Nevada at Salt Lake City.

New Mexico State...A lot of savvy hoops insiders believe the name of the game is offense these days, and wonder about the validity of the old "defense wins championships" saying. Exhibit A for the new wave of thinking could be the Aggies, who evolved into a dangerous outfit by New Year's and completed their remarkable transformation by upsetting favored Utah State in the WAC Tourney final at Reno. The Aggies have a couple of Gs in Jahmar Young (20.5 ppg) & Jonathan Gibson (17.5 ppg) who can go one-on-one and break down enemy defenses as well as shoot beyond the arc, while the midseason eligibility of 6'8 F Troy Gillenwater (14.4 ppg) added even more firepower to the strike force. Meanwhile, 6'11 Hamadu Rahman and 6'6 PF Wendell McKines provide a real presence on the blocks. WAC observers have noted that NMSU rarely goes on any scoring droughts with all of that available artillery, and it's hard for foes to string together momentum-changing blitzes since the Aggies began to click. Michigan State and Tom Izzo have been warned in the first round.

Oakland...The Golden Grizzlies present some size concerns for foes with 6'11, 261-lb C Keith Benson (27 ppg), who has NBA scouts interested, and 6'9 PF Will Hudson, while 6'2 St. John's transfer Larry Wright and quicksilver 5'11 sr. Johnathon Jones are a dynamite backcourt combo. Oakland enters the Dance very hot (20-1 SU its last 21) and wasn't afraid to play anybody this season while consistently on the Summit League trail, but it's worth noting the Golden Grizzlies weren't closer than 16 vs. the likes of Wisconsin, Kansas, Michigan State, and Memphis in pre-league play, and lost by 12 at Oregon. Oakland will hope to fare a bit better in its first-round game vs. Pitt at Milwaukee.

Murray State...For a time late in the season, the Racers had the nation's longest winning streak (18 games), and many Ohio Valley observers believe this is the league's best chance to win a first-round NCAA game since 1988, when the same Murray beat Jim Valvano's NC State. Still a bit of an unknown after a mostly low-key non-conference slate, with a 5-point loss at Cal in the Preseason NIT the one result vs. formidable opposition. But the Racers are spectacularly balanced, with five players scoring between 10.3 and 10.6 ppg, and Creighton transfer G Isacc Miles just behind at 9.5 ppg. Lots of backcourt speed with Miles and frosh Isaiah Canaan will pressure Vanderbilt Gs Jermaine Beal & Scott Tinsley in first-round action Thursday at San Jose.

Sam Houston State...Posted a couple of interesting non-league results, including playing Kentucky within 10 at Cancun back in November when the Bearkats hit an astounding 18 of 38 casts beyond the arc, and later winning 107-89 at Auburn. Star G Corey Allmond made John Calipari notice when bombing UK for 37 in November, and SHSU later hit on 15 of 28 triples when whipping host Auburn by 18. With bomber deluxe Allmond leading the way, the Bearkats hit on 8.9 treys pg (ranks 8th nationally), but sometimes that over-reliance on the triples can boomerang as it did in a 40-point loss at Wright State. That kind of potential firepower still might give Sam Houston a puncher's chance in the first round vs. Baylor, although the Bearkats are undersized, with no starter taller than goggle-wearing 6'6 juco F Gilberto Clavell, who hit Auburn for 34 in that December win at Beard-Eaves Coliseum.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 01:27 AM

Bracket Analysis

Another Selection Sunday has prompted yet another Bracket Analysis column, probably my favorite of each year. Let’s start by informing you of the No. 1 seeds – Kansas, Kentucky, Duke and Syracuse.

In a season in which so many big-time programs like North Carolina, Indiana, UCLA, Arizona and Oklahoma endured down years, we still have four of the country’s most storied college basketball programs as our No. 1 seeds.

Kansas spent most of the regular season as the nation’s top-ranked team and the committee rewarded it with the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. The Jayhawks, who beat Kansas St. to win the Big 12 Tournament, will face Lehigh in the first round. Remember, a No. 16 seed has never beaten a top seed in NCAA Tourney history.

Assuming it advances, KU would face the No. Iowa-UNLV winner for the right to go to the Sweet 16. Potential foes for Bill Self’s squad in the region semifinals include Michigan State and Maryland. Of course, the Spartans were last year’s runners-up and they have one of the premier coaches in NCAA Tourney history in Tom Izzo. Maryland is another dangerous team with veteran guards that could give KU issues.

If form holds and the top seeds advance to the Midwest Region finals, we would have Kansas colliding with Ohio St. in the Elite Eight. If I’m Bill Self, I certainly would’ve preferred facing a No. 2 seed like Villanova or Kansas St. rather than Ohio St. (or West Va.).

To further demonstrate how the committee seemingly didn’t do KU many favors for being the “No. 1 overall seed,” you only need to look at Syracuse’s draw. I feel like the ‘Cuse has the easiest path to the Final Four in Indianapolis. The Orange will start its march to Indy by taking on Vermont, which won’t have T.J. Sorrentine around like in 2005. Taylor Coppenrath won’t be in uniform for the Catamounts, either.

Five years ago, Sorrentine and Coppenrath helped Vermont stun the ‘Cuse in overtime of a first-round showdown in the ‘05 Tourney. This time around, Vermont will not be able to send Jim Boeheim’s team packing.

Syracuse has way too much firepower for the Catamounts, although we should note that Jim Boeheim said on Sunday that Arinze Onuaku was “unlikely” to play in the first weekend of the tournament.

That’s great news for FSU and Gonzaga, one of whom will be waiting on the Orange. Onuaku’s absence leaves Boehim with just a six-man rotation. Foul trouble could become a major concern for Syracuse. FSU goes through too many long stretches in which it struggles to get buckets, but the ‘Noles have great size and lots of big bodies to throw at the Orange.

Nevertheless, I think Andy Rautins and Wesley Johnson get Syracuse to the West Region semifinals. At that point, the Orange might be facing a double-digit seed. That’s right, UTEP and Murray St. are very capable of getting to Salt Lake City. In a potential Elite Eight game, Syracuse would get to face the weakest No. 2 seed in my opinion, Kansas St.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not advising ‘Cuse fans to book their trip to Indy for certain. When you only have six healthy players, nothing is for certain. But I like the Orange’s draw, certainly when comparing it to that of the other top seeds.

For instance, Kentucky might have to play a team as talented as Texas as early as the second round. Now for our purposes, all savvy bettors are aware of how great the Longhorns have been to fade recently, as evidenced by their atrocious 3-17 spread record in their last 20 games.

But every team has new life in the NCAA Tournament and Texas is not the type of matchup John Calipari wanted to see this early. Dexter Pittman might be the country’s only post player that can bang with UK’s DeMarcus Cousins. If Pittman isn’t in foul trouble, Cousins won’t command the double-teams he almost always draws.

If Damion James and Avery Bradley play well, the ‘Cats could be in trouble in a potential showdown with Texas. First, however, Rick Barnes’ bunch has to get past Wake Forest.

Since I’ve been saying for weeks that Kentucky isn’t going to make it to Indy, I was quite pleased to see a tough Wisconsin club in the Wildcats’ way. The Badgers, a No. 4 seed, might face UK in the Sweet 16 at the Carrier Dome. If we see that, I’ll be giving Wisconsin a huge edge in the coaching department with Bo Ryan going up against Calipari.

Should UK get to the Elite Eight, West Virginia is a potential opponent that I would like to send the ‘Cats back to the Commonwealth, where many plane tickets to Indy will be going to waste.

Duke’s path to Indy has plenty of potholes as well. The Blue Devils might play Louisville in the second round. Without a doubt, the Cardinals can play with anyone as evidenced by a pair of regular-season wins over Syracuse. A potential Sweet 16 foe is Purdue, which looked like a No. 1 seed before Robbie Hummel went down with a season-ending ACL tear. The Blue Devils could see Villanova in a potential Elite Eight game.

Every year I throw out a team or two that has a player good enough to carry it to six straight wins. We saw this in 1988 with Danny and the Miracles. Manning dominated the tourney and led Kansas to an upset win over Oklahoma in the finals. In 2003, we saw Carmelo Anthony, with plenty of help from Gerry McNamara and Hakim Warrick, guide Syracuse to a national-title win over Kansas.

I think Ohio State’s Evan Turner is that guy this year. Since the Buckeyes are a No. 2 seed, I’m certainly not breaking any news in the previous sentence, so let’s find more of an underdog story. Granted, Maryland is a No. 4 seed (‘Cuse was 3 in ’03, while KU was a 6 in 88), but I love how Grievis Vazquez can control a game with his scoring and passing for the Terps, who are going to be an extremely tough out.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--A few quick-hit predictions:
1-Xavier is going to the Final Four.
2-Cornell is going to beat Temple and will take Wisconsin to the wire.
3- Winthrop will win the play-in game and cover in a first-round loss to Duke.
4-Name to Learn: No. Iowa’s Ali Farokhmanesh, whose 3-point range will give KU concerns.
5-Only one No. 1 seed – Kansas – is going to make it to Indianapolis.

Best First-Round Games:
1-Temple vs. Cornell
2-Purdue vs. Siena
3-UTEP vs. Butler
4-FSU vs. Gonzaga
5-Florida vs. BYU

Best Potential Second-Round Games:
1-Maryland vs. Michigan St.
2-Duke vs. Louisville
3-Xavier vs. Pitt
4-Kentucky vs. Texas
5-Georgetown vs. Tennessee

Six Double-Digit Seeds Most Likely to make Sweet 16:
1-Siena
2-UTEP
3-San Diego State
4-Cornell
5-Florida
6-Washington

--Duke has a history with either of its potential second-round foes. In 1986, Louisville beat Duke in the finals behind the play of freshman center Pervis “Never Nervous” Ellison. And of course, the Blue Devils lost to California in the second round of the 1993 tourney in Bobby Hurley’s last career game in which he was outplayed by Cal’s Jason Kidd.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 01:28 AM

Session I, Thursday

The 2010 NCAA Tournament begins Thursday afternoon with a trio of games starting with BYU and Florida in Oklahoma City at 12:20 p.m. Eastern. Five minutes later, Old Dominion and Notre Dame will square off in New Orleans. Then at 12:30 p.m., Robert Morris will take on Villanova in Providence, RI. Let’s take an in-depth look at all three of these contests and more…

**Florida vs. Brigham Young**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened BYU (29-5 straight up, 18-13 against the spread) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 145. As of Monday afternoon, most betting shops had the Cougars listed as 4 ½-point ‘chalk.’

--Florida (21-12 SU, 15-13 ATS) has won 12 consecutive NCAA Tournament games. Of course, those numbers stem from the 2006 and 2007 events when Billy Donovan’s program captured back-to-back national championships. Since then, UF had to settle for a pair of NIT bids and a possible third seemed possible on Selection Sunday. As it turned out, however, the Gators were somewhat comfortably ‘in’ as evidenced by their No. 10 seed.

--BYU is one of four teams in the field from the Mountain West Conference, the most the league has ever sent. The Cougars haven’t tasted a victory in the NCAA Tournament since 1993 when they beat SMU in Chicago as a No. 7 seed. They are seeded seventh for the first time since then this year, a welcome change when considering three straight losses as an eighth seed. BYU had lost to Texas A&M in the 8-9 game the last two campaigns.

--Dave Rose’s team was probably in line for a better seed, perhaps as high as a No. 5, until it lost to UNLV 70-66 in the MWC Tournament semifinals. In fairness to BYU, we should mention that the game was in Las Vegas at the Thomas & Mack Center, essentially making it a road assignment. In the losing effort, Jimmer Fredette scored a game-high 30 points.

--BYU freshman guard Tyler Haws, who averages 11.4 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, did not play against the Rebels after suffering a fractured orbital bone in Thursday’s win over TCU in the MWC Tourney quarterfinals. Haws was considered “questionable” for the UF game as of Monday afternoon.

--Billy Donovan’s team lost its last three regular-season games and has dropped four of its last five. The Gators beat Auburn 78-69 as 5 ½-point favorites in the first round of the SEC Tournament in Nashville this past Thursday. Alex Tyus paced UF with 24 points against the Tigers. But Florida went down by a 75-69 count to Mississippi St. as a 1 ½-point underdog in the SEC quarterfinals.

--Florida owns a 6-5 spread record in 11 games as an underdog this season. Meanwhile, BYU has compiled an 8-4 ATS mark in 12 games as a single-digit favorite.

--BYU lost five of nine games against teams in the NCAA field, while Florida went 3-8 against the field with wins over Michigan St., FSU and Tennessee.

--Only one UF player – senior Dan Werner – has any NCAA Tournament experience.

--The ‘under’ is 13-11 overall for the Gators, although they have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in their last six games.

--The ‘over’ is on a 7-3 run for the Cougars, who have watched the ‘over’ go 15-14 overall.

--The winner will face the Kansas State-North Texas winner on Saturday. The Wildcats are the No. 2 seed in the West region.

**Notre Dame vs. Old Dominion**

--LVSC opened Notre Dame (23-11 SU, 17-10-1 ATS) as a four-point favorite with a total of 116. As of Monday afternoon, most books had adjusted the Irish to two and as low as 1 ½ at the Las Vegas Hilton.

--Old Dominion (26-8 SU, 13-17 ATS) has won five in a row and eight of its last nine, including a 60-53 win over William & Mary in the finals of the Colonial Tournament. However, the Tribe took the money as a nine-point underdog. Darius James led a balanced attack for the Monarchs with 12 points, four assists and three rebounds.

--ODU is 1-6 both SU and ATS in seven games as an underdog. The Monarchs picked up their lone victory by winning 61-57 at Georgetown as nine-point underdogs back on Dec. 19.

--Mike Brey’s team is 5-4-1 ATS in 10 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’ The Irish are 7-2 ATS in nine games against teams in the NCAA field.

--Notre Dame was on the bubble a couple of weeks ago, but this squad caught fire at just the right time to get a solid sixth seed in the South region. After a 91-89 overtime loss at Louisville on Feb. 17, the Irish ripped off six straight wins until dropping a 53-51 heartbreaker to West Virginia in the Big East Tournament semifinals. Most importantly, they have covered the spread in eight straight games.

--Notre Dame senior All-American Luke Harangody (23.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG) sustained a knee injury on Feb. 11 against Seton Hall, causing him to miss five consecutive games. Harangody returned to the court and came off the bench to play sparingly in an OT win at Marquette in the regular-season finale. But he got more minutes at MSG in the league tourney. In fact, ‘Gody went off for 20 points and 10 rebounds in just 24 minutes of playing time in a 68-56 win over the Pirates to start the Irish’s run in NYC. He finished with 12 and 10 points against Pitt and WVU, respectively.

--The ‘under’ is 17-13 overall for ODU, but the ‘over’ is 7-1 in its last eight outings.

--The ‘under’ has been on fire for the Irish, cashing in seven straight games. For the season, the ‘under’ is 16-11 overall for Notre Dame.

**Robert Morris vs. Villanova**

--LVSC opened Villanova (24-7 SU, 18-12 ATS) as a 20-point favorite with a total of 142. As of Monday afternoon, most spots had ‘Nova as a 19-point ‘chalk.’

--Jay Wright’s squad has limped down the stretch, especially for our purposes. The Wildcats have lost five of their last seven games, including an 80-76 loss to Marquette as five-point favorites in the Big East Tourney quarterfinals.

--‘Nova is in the midst of a 2-6 ATS slide in its last eight outings. With that said, the Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit favorites.

--Robert Morris (23-11 SU, 3-4 ATS) won the Northeast Conference’s automatic bid by besting Quinnipac 52-50 in the finals of the league tournament. The Colonials won outright as 4 ½-point underdogs. Karon Abraham paced the winners with a team-high 16 points.

--Robert Morris has split four games against teams in the NCAA field, but that factoid is extremely misleading. The Colonials beat Ohio (81-79) and Morgan St. (78-75) at home in a pair of non-lined affairs. However, they got blasted 100-60 at Syracuse as 18 ½-point ‘dogs and also lost 77-53 at Pitt in a non-lined game.

--‘Nova is led by senior guard Scottie Reynolds, who averages a team-high 18.5 PPG and garnered first-team All-Big East honors. Reynolds is just 49 points shy of overtaking Kerry Kittles as the school’s all-time leading scorer. His backcourt mate, junior Corey Fisher, has been filling it up from 3-point land recently. Fisher drained 6-of-7 treys in the Big East Tourney loss to Marquette and is 12-of-19 from beyond the arc in the last three games.

--Villanova sophomore forward Taylor King, a transfer from Duke, was benched for the team’s regular-season finale and only played two minutes against Marquette. Wright’s reasoning for the benching was termed a “teaching moment.” King is the team’s fifth-leading scorer (7.5 PPG) and he also pulls down 5.6 rebounds per contest.

--The ‘over’ is 18-12 overall for Villanova, but the ‘under’ is 4-2 in its last six outings.

--The ‘over’ is 2-1 overall for the Colonials.

--The winner will advance to face the St. Mary’s-Richmond survivor on Saturday.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 06:12 PM

Tuesday's NBA Best Bets + Pod's ( 3 - 0 Last Night )

Tuesday, March 16Game Score Status Pick Amount

Charlotte - 7:00 PM ET Indiana +2.5 500
Indiana - Under 197.5 500 ( NBA TOTAL )

Cleveland - 7:30 PM ET Cleveland -10 300
Detroit - Over 197.5 300

San Antonio - 7:30 PM ET Miami -1.5 300
Miami -

Atlanta - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey +6.5 500 ( NBA DOG )
New Jersey - Over 195 500

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Chicago +10.5 400
Memphis - Under 205 400

Washington - 9:00 PM ET Denver -14 500 ( NBA BLOWOUT )
Denver - Over 212 500

Minnesota - 10:00 PM ET Minnesota +12.5 400
Phoenix - Under 225.5 400

L.A. Lakers - 10:00 PM ET Sacramento +6 500
Sacramento - Over 207 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 06:28 PM

Tuesday's CBB Best Bets + Pod's !

Tuesday, March 16Game Score Status Pick Amount

Northeastern - 7:00 PM ET Northeastern +7.5 300
Connecticut - Over 123.5 300

VCU - 7:00 PM ET George Washington +3 300
George Washington - Under 139.5 300

Fairfield - 7:00 PM ET George Mason -1.5 500 ( POD )
George Mason - Under 133 500

Western Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina +11 500 ( BIG DOG )
Marshall - Over 151.5 500

Winthrop - 7:30 PM ET Winthrop -3.5 500 ( POD )
Arkansas-Pine Bluff - Under 113.5 500

N.C. State - 8:00 PM ET South Florida -3.5 400
South Florida - Under 126.5 400

South Dakota - 8:00 PM ET South Dakota +13.5 400
Creighton -

Coastal Carolina - 8:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina +11 500 ( POD )
UAB -

Texas Tech - 9:00 PM ET Seton Hall -9 300
Seton Hall - Over 161.5 500

Indiana St. - 9:00 PM ET Indiana St. +7.5 400
Saint Louis - Under 118 200

William & Mary - 9:30 PM ET William & Mary +8 400
North Carolina - Over 133.5 400

Jackson State - 10:00 PM ET Mississippi St. -20.5 500
Mississippi St. -

Jacksonville - 11:00 PM ET Jacksonville +14.5 400
Arizona St. - Under 127.5 200

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 06:34 PM

Tuesday, March 16Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Carolina -135 500
Carolina - Under 5.5 500

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo -134 500
Atlanta - Under 5.5 500

Montreal - 7:30 PM ET Montreal +134 500 ( NHL DOG )
NY Rangers - Over 5.5 500

Toronto - 7:30 PM ET Ottawa -172 500
Ottawa - Under 5.5 500

Phoenix - 7:30 PM ET Phoenix -125 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5.5 500

Washington - 7:30 PM ET Florida +139 500 ( NHL DOG )
Florida - Under 6 500

Colorado - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis -144 500
St. Louis - Under 5.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:00 PM ET Nashville -108 500
Nashville - Over 5.5 500

Edmonton - 8:00 PM ET Edmonton +231 500 ( NHL BIG DOG )
Minnesota - Over 5.5 500

San Jose - 8:30 PM ET San Jose -159 500
Dallas - Over 5.5 500

NY Islanders - 10:00 PM ET NY Islanders +235 500
Vancouver - Over 5.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 07:27 PM

Trend Report - Tuesday

Bulls at Grizzlies – The League is 8-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since November 07, 2007 on the road with two or more days of rest after a double digit loss in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Bulls are 0-7 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since February 27, 2010 when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games. The Bulls are 0-6 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since November 27, 2004 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS (-7.3 ppg) since November 28, 2003 at home with two or more days of rest off a loss as a dog in which they led by 10+ points.

Spurs at Heat – The Spurs are 0-8 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since December 10, 2006 on the road after playing the Clippers. The Spurs are 7-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since November 27, 2009 on the road after a game at home in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Heat are 0-8 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since February 09, 2006 with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

Lakers at Kings – The Lakers are 0-9-1 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since April 21, 2009 and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. The Kings are 8-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since February 19, 2008 as a dog when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they led by double digits. The Kings are 0-7 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since December 06, 2009 when their opponent is playing in at least their third straight road game.

Hawks at Nets – The Hawks are 9-0 ATS (5.0 ppg) since January 31, 2001 as a favorite after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Hawks are 0-8 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since November 16, 2001 on the road after a double digit win in which they shot at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Nets are 6-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since December 15, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

Wizards at Nuggets – The Wizards are 0-9 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since February 18, 2004 as a dog with no rest after a double digit loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since January 22, 2009 when playing the second of back-to-back road games. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since March 16, 2009 when facing a team that covered by double digits against them in their previous same-season meeting on the road.

Bobcats at Pacers – The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since January 13, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a road win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since December 09, 2009 at home after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.

Cavaliers at Pistons – The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since November 14, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Pistons are 7-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since January 28, 2007 at home when seeking revenge for a loss in which they led by a least fifteen points. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS (-5.0 ppg) since December 20, 2005 at home when playing their fourth game in five days.

Timberwolves at Suns – The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since November 23, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. The Suns are 5-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since January 31, 2010 and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 07:30 PM

Session II, Thursday

The hits keep on coming on Thursday afternoon as the 2010 NCAA Tournament rolls through its second session of the day. We’ll open up in San Jose as Vanderbilt and Murray State square off at 2:30 p.m. EDT. Kansas State will open its tourney run the Mean Green in Oklahoma City 20 minutes later. It all concludes with a quality first round battle between UTEP and Butler back at the HP Pavilion.

Murray State (13) vs. Vanderbilt (4) – 2:30 p.m. EDT

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has posted Vanderbilt (24-8 straight up, 16-14 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 140 ½ for this contest. Bettors wanting to take the Racers for the outright upset can expect a plus-130 return on their money (risk $100 to win $130).

The Commodores come into this game as one of the four teams to make the tournament from the Southeastern Conference. Vandy finished the year second in the East Division, but closed out with two losses in its last three games. The ‘Dores found themselves on the short end of a 62-52 decision against Mississippi State last Saturday as two-point favorites. They shot just 35 percent from the field, but only had seven offensive rebounds. Festus Ezeli put in just eight points and six boards to lead the team. A.J. Ogilvy, who is averaging 6.2 rebounds per game, had just four picks off the glass and two points against the Bulldogs.

Murray State (30-4 SU, 14-14-1 ATS) comes into this game having won 21 of its last 22 contests of the season en route to the Ohio Valley Conference championship. The Racers are one of the more complete teams in the NCAA Tournament as they’re the only conference champ to lead their league in offense (77.5 PPG) and defense (60.5 PPG).

In their OVC title-winning game, the Racers dropped Morehead State 62-51 as four-point favorites last Saturday. It was the third time in MSU’s last four games that they covered the spread. The ‘under’ has gone on a 5-1 run to close out the conference season. In the win over the Eagles, Isaiah Canaan pushed through for Murray State with 16 points and five rebounds.

Murray State has been tabbed as an underdog just twice this season, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, with the ‘over’ cashing in on both occasions. The lone cover came in the season opener for the Racers as they fell to California as 14-point road pups 75-70 on Nov. 9. Over the last two years, Murray State is 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS as an underdog. The totals have gone 4-4 in that time as well.

Vanderbilt has gone 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS when posted as a single-digit favorite this season. The ‘over’ has cashed in a lot for bettors by going 7-2-1 in that stretch.

When you look at how these teams did against the rest of the NCAA field, then you’d point to the Commodores and their 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS as the ‘over’ went 5-2. Murray State is 2-0 SU and 0-1 ATS against teams that are going dancing.

The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in Vandy’s last 10 games, while the Racers have watched the ‘under’ go on a 7-3 run.

Either the Miners or Bulldogs will face off with the winner of this contest.

North Texas (15) vs. Kansas State (2) – 2:50 p.m. EDT

LVSC opened Kansas State (26-7 SU, 18-9-1 ATS) as heavy 16-point favorites with a total of 148 ½. If the Mean Green pull off the upset, they’ll be paying off at plus-1500 (risk $100 to win $1500).

North Texas (24-8 SU, 17-6-2 ATS) comes into this opening round contest having won the Sun Belt title for the second time in four years. The Mean Green have won 11 straight fixtures, covering the number in seven times. They came up with a thrilling last-second 66-63 win over Troy in the conference title game, where it was a pick ‘em at the betting outlets. Eric Tramiel poured in 20 points and 10 rebounds. George Odufuwa snared 17 boards and 11 points in a winning effort.

Gamblers taking the Mean Green have enjoyed backing them when they’re listed as underdogs, going 4-5 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in those nine times that it happened. The ‘under’ went 4-3 in that situation for North Texas.

The Wildcats were still in the running for a top seed in this tourney if they could win against intrastate rival Kansas in the Big XII title game. K-State couldn’t get past the Jayhawks, losing 72-64 as a six-point pup last Saturday. Denis Clemente racked up 17 points, two boards and four assists in a losing effort.

We shouldn’t cry too much for K-State for being the No. 2 team in the West Region. After all, they are listed at 5/1 to make it to Indianapolis.

Kansas State has been a quality team to back when they’re tabbed as a favorite, going 17-2 SU and 13-5-1 AST this season. When listed as double-digit faves, the ‘Cats are 5-1 SU but just 3-3 ATS. The totals went 2-2 that had a number on the board.

The ‘Cats are 9-5 SU and 9-4 ATS against other teams that made the NCAA Tournament. The ‘under’ is 7-6 in those contests.

The ‘under’ is 11-9 for the Mean Green this season, while K-State has watched the ‘over’ go 12-10.

Either Brigham Young or Florida await the winner of this game.

Sam Houston State (14) vs. Baylor (3) – 2:55 p.m. EDT

LVSC installed Baylor (25-7 SU, 16-9 ATS) as an 11-point “chalk” with a total of 150 ½. Bettors interested in backing the Bearkats to win outright can expect a plus-550 (risk $100 to win $550) return.

Sam Houston State (25-7 SU, 3-2 ATS) is making its first trip to the Big Dance since 2003 after beating the Lumberjacks as a three-point favorite 64-48 last Saturday. The ‘Kats dominated against Stephen F. Austin with Gilberto Clavell leading the way with 21 points, five boards and four helpers.

The Bearkats played only one game against someone in the field of 65. In that game, they were beaten by Kentucky 102-92 in Lexington back on Nov. 19.

Baylor enters the tournament having just had its five-game win streak snapped in an 82-75 loss to the Wildcats as a 2 ½-point pup in the Big XII Semifinals. The Bears actually shot better than K-State in that contest (54%-46%), but turned the ball over 18 times to seal their fate. LaceDarius Dunn has 26 points, while Ekpe Udoh scored 18 point with 11 rebounds. That loss also snapped a four-game ATS winning streak for bettors that were backing Baylor at the close of league play.

The Bears have posted an 8-5 SU and 6-6 ATS mark against other teams that made it into the NCAA Tournament. The ‘over’ went a strong 8-3 in that stretch.

These two clubs have played once in recent memory with the Bearkats winning 81-64 in Waco in 1999. That was Dave Bliss’ first year with Baylor…well before he found fun and exciting ways to sully a dead player’s name by claiming he was a drug dealer.

The ‘over’ has gone 15-7 for Baylor this season. And it is currently on a 5-1 run as we head into this tourney.

Notre Dame or Old Dominion awaits the victor of this contest.

St. Mary’s (10) vs. Richmond (7) – 3:00 p.m. EDT

Richmond (26-8 SU, 18-11-1 ATS) has been installed as a two-point favorite with a total of 134 ½. The Gaels are listed at plus-110 (risk $100 to win $110) to pull off a minor upset.

St. Mary’s (26-5 SU, 20-10 ATS) was largely considered a bubble team before the West Coast Conference Tournament began. They eliminated all doubt of getting an invite by securing the league’s automatic berth with an 81-62 win over the Zags as a 4 ½-point underdog on March 8. Mickey McConnell led the Gaels to the title with 26 points and six assists.

The Gaels has had the backs of gamblers as of late, covering the spread in four of their last five contests. The ‘over’ is 15-10-1 for St. Mary’s this season. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in on an 8-2 run to close out the regular season and conference tourney play.

Richmond thought they were in some danger of missing out on the Big Dance after falling to the Owls 56-52 on March 14 as a four-point ‘dog. A body of work that included wins over Mizzou, Florida and Mississippi State helped the Spiders gain one of the 65 spots in the tourney.

The Spiders have a defense that is giving up just 62.2 PPG this season to rank 42nd nationally. And they’re 17th in defensive field goal percentage by allowing the opposition to hit just 39.2 percent of their shots. On the attack, look no further than Kevin Anderson to get things on track. Anderson leads the team with 17.8 PPG and almost three helpers per game this season.

Even though Richmond has a strong ATS mark on the year as a whole, they are just 3-3-1 ATS in its last seven contests. The ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run for the Spiders right now as well.

You’re going to be hard pressed to find a team for our purposes that fared better against other NCAA Tournament qualifiers than the Spiders. They are 5-3 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in eight games against teams in the Big Dance. And the ‘over’ has gone 5-3 for totals players.

The Gaels are 4-3 SU and ATS in seven contests against other NCAA tourney teams. The totals went 3-3 in those spots.

The winner of this test will get to take on either the Fighting Irish or Monarchs in the second round on Sunday.

Texas-El Paso (12) vs. Butler (5) – 4:55 p.m. EDT

LVSC has tapped Butler (28-4 SU, 13-19 ATS) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 130. The Miners are currently listed at plus-125 (risk $100 to win $125) on the money line.

The Bulldogs had very few problems running the table in the Horizon League this season with an 18-0 record. That solid play continued into the conference tourney, culminating in a 70-45 victory over Wright State as 7 ½-point favorites on March 9. Matt Howard led a unit that shot 52 percent with 14 points and nine boards.

You’ll understand if other bettors are gun shy when it comes to saddling up with Butler since they’re 4-7 ATS over its last 11 contests. Also, the ‘over’ is 15-12 for the year. Yet in the last 10 games for the Bulldogs, the ‘under’ has gone 7-3.

UTEP (26-6 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) lost 81-73 to the Cougars as a 7 ½-point favorite for the Conference USA championship last Saturday. That setback shouldn’t deter people from the fact that the Miners went into that contest having won 16 straight games, covering the number in 10 of those matches. The over’ is 12-10 for the year for Texas-El Paso and 5-3 in its last eight contests.

There is some value in taking Butler to win the West Region at 15/1 on Sportsbook.com. Meanwhile, the Miners can pay you off with a 40/1 return if they cut down the nets at the EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah.

The Miners may have a strong body of work, but they are just 3-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their seven matches against other NCAA Tournament foes. The totals were 3-3 in the six that had a number assigned to them.

Butler has posted a 3-3 SU and ATS record against other NCAA qualifiers. That record is a little misleading as they’ve got wins over the Buckeyes and Musketeers – two of the better teams in this field.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 07:53 PM

Winthrop favored in Play-In Game

About the last thing on the mind of the coaches of Winthrop and Arkansas Pine-Bluff early in the season was a NCAA Tournament game. The Eagles from Rock Hill, S.C. started the year 5-9 and the Golden Lions were 9-14 in the middle of February. However, tournament bids from the Big South and SWAC are earned by winning basketball games at the right time and each school did what they needed to survive and advance.

Winthrop (19-13) is the known commodity in this event, having been at the Big Dance five of the last six years, which included a memorable victory over Notre Dame three years ago. The Eagles were flying down the stretch, winning 14 of last 18, playing stifling defense, holding opposing teams to 39.7 percent shooting.

This helps overcome some real deficiencies in putting the ball in the basket, where they convert only 38.3 percent from the field and are dead last in the entire country in three-point shooting (not just the tourney teams) at 25.5 percent. It figures Winthrop had the Big South Defensive Player of the Year Mantoris Robinson, who can wipe the ball from offensive counterpart and block shots.

Arkansas Pine-Bluff (17-15) deserves a great deal of credit for courage. This senior-heavy team played their first FOURTEEN games on the road, five against teams in this field and a couple that just missed. Coach George Ivory was a miracle worker not to lose this squad after 0-11 start.
The Golden Lions are also modest offensively, averaging 64.4 points per game, with their leading scorer Terrance Calvin at only 10.4 points per game.

Winthrop is a 3.5-point favorite and because of each team’s offensive ineffectiveness, the total has tumbled from 116 to 113 at Bookmaker.com.
The best bet for the play in-game might be the total, as neutral court teams with a horrible offensive team, averaging less than 63 points a game (Winthrop), against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game are 36-13 UNDER the last 13 years.

ESPN has this contest starting at 7:30 Eastern from Dayton, with the winner moving on to face top seeded Duke.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 07:55 PM

Don't forget about NIT, CBI, & CIT Brackets

We all know the big draw at this time of year is the “Big Dance”. All of the best teams are there, playing in high profile games in high profile arena’s across the country over the next few weeks. However, the serious bettor might take a greater liking to the action in the NIT, CIT, and CBI tournaments if he or she chooses to analyze them. After all, the games in those tournaments are nothing more than glorified non-conference games, with the higher seeded teams playing at home in most cases. As such, the handicapper gets to apply many of the same strategies that they have been perfecting since the tip-off of the season some four months ago. With the thought of building our bankrolls for the main event, let’s take a look at the recent action in the undercard tournaments to see if we can uncover some winning information.

CollegeInsider.com Tournament
2010 marks the second annual CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT) featuring another 16 deserving teams who didn’t get the opportunity to play in the NCAA or NIT Tournaments. The CollegeInsider.com Tournament competes with the CBI Tournament for teams. Teams are seeded and games are played on campus sites, including the championship, with a single-elimination tournament format. In the inaugural edition of the tournament last spring, no power conference schools were included, and perhaps the most well-known teams came from the Missouri Valley Conference.

In any case, here are some of the things that happened in the 2009 CIT tournament, from a betting perspective.

Old Dominion won the tournament championship, beating Bradley on the road. The Monarchs were 3-1 ATS in their four tournament games.

Home teams were 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS in the CIT tournament in ’09, with every single one of them playing as a favorite.

OVER the total was 8-6-1 in the 15 CIT games last year.

There were distinctive breaks in the relationship between the pointspreads and the home team success last year. In CIT games with lines of -9 or more, home teams were 2-0 SU & 0-2 ATS. In games with pointspreads of 3-points or less, home teams were 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS. In between, they were 6-1 SU & ATS.

Despite being the biggest name conference in the CIT tournament last year, Missouri Valley teams Bradley, Drake, and Evansville combined to go just 1-5 ATS.

Only one first round road team pulled an upset last year (Belmont at Evansville), with hosts going 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS.

College Basketball Invitational Tournament
This year marks the third annual College Basketball Invitational and the tournament website claims the 2010 CBI is shaping up to be “even more exciting this year.” The CBI has a similar format to the CIT, 16 teams, seeded in four regions, with each game in the first three rounds played at home arenas in a single elimination format. However, the two teams eventually reaching the championship play a best-of-three series with the higher seed hosting two games should a third be necessary.

Last year, Oregon State and UTEP played for the CBI championship. After Oregon State won the first Championship Series game in Corvallis, the scene shifted to El Paso, where UTEP took the second game of the series before Oregon State emerged as CBI champs with an 81-73 road victory.

Tulsa won the ’08 championship, beating Bradley, 2-1 in the finals.

Here are some betting trends that have formed in the first two years of the College Basketball Invitational Tournament:

Home teams were 23-11 SU but just 15-19 ATS in the CBI tournaments of ’08 & ’09. Both marks represent declines from the success of the CIT hosts.

The CBI has been a high scoring tournament to date, with OVER the total owning a mark of 20-11-3 in the first two years.

First round CBI games have proven highly competitive with the home teams owning a 9-7 SU edge but visitors having covered the pointspread in 11 of 16 games.

Fortunes turn in round two of the CBI, with home teams having won seven of eight games while going 5-3 ATS.

Favorites of 6-points or more in the first two CBI tournaments have gone 9-3 SU but 3-9 ATS.

Home favorites of less than 3-points are an imperfect 0-5 SU & ATS in the CBI tournament over the last two years, while home underdogs are 3-0 SU & ATS.

Power conference teams, or the “Big 6” are 9-5 SU & ATS in the CBI tourney, negating any preconceived notion that they don’t care about these second-rate tournaments. Pac 10 teams are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS, not counting the game in which Oregon State and Stanford went head-to-head last March.

“D”-level conference schools (Ivy, Southern, MEAC, America East, etc) are 4-0 ATS.

In 18 past CBI games with totals posted at 140 or higher, OVER the total is 12-3-3.

National Invitation Tournament
The National Invitation Tournament, better known as the NIT, has been around since 1938 and is the longest running postseason college basketball tournament. The NIT is twice as big as the CIT & CBI in terms of teams, with 32, and only recently did it start seeding teams in four distinct regions on the bracket. The first three rounds are all played at home team sites, before the semifinals and finals are played at historic Madison Square Garden in New York. The last two NIT champions have come from the Big Ten Conference, Penn State and Ohio State.

Here’s a look at the betting story in the NIT, dating back to the 2007 tournament, the first going back to the current format of 32 teams.

Home teams have gone 13-3 SU in each of the last three years of first round NIT action. In the two most recent years, the ATS split was 8/8 between home & road teams. In 2007, the visitors held a 9-7 edge.

The home court advantage is even greater in the second round of the NIT tournament, as over the last three years, hosts are 20-4 SU & 17-6-1 ATS.

In the past three years, there hasn’t even once been a home underdog in the NIT tournament. Interestingly though, home favorites of 3-points or less are just 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS. UNDER the total is also 7-2 in those games.

Double-digit home favorites haven’t been a good bet either in the NIT since ’07, going 18-2 SU but 9-11 ATS.

The best line range in which to back home favorites in the NIT is at -3.5 to -9.5 points, 35-19-1 ATS over the last three years, including 12-4 ATS a year ago.

The “B” level conferences (Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Conference USA, WAC, Atlantic 10) have shown some distinct tendencies of late based upon the opponent they’ve faced. When on the road at “A”-conference teams, they are just 3-22 SU & 7-18 ATS over the L3 years of NIT action. When hosting “A” teams, they are 8-3 SU & 6-5 ATS. In matchups between two “B” teams, the visitor is a perfect 6-0 ATS. When hosting a lesser conference school, the “B” teams are a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS.

Big 12 teams are just 4-10 ATS in the L3 years of NIT play. Missouri Valley teams are 3-9 ATS. Big Ten teams are 10-4 ATS.

The semifinals and finals of the NIT are played in a neutral environment at MSG. Over the last three years, favorites in these games are just 3-6 SU & ATS, with no line exceeding 5-points.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 08:55 PM

UPGRADE:

Indiana St. - 9:00 PM ET Indiana St. +7.5 500

( POD )

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2010, 10:10 PM

Can anyone tell me what the heck happen in the Geo. Mason game..i left and they had a 20pt lead.........came home and now its in OT ....OMG

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