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**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 01:02 AM

Big Ten Quarterfinals

Six teams started the Big Ten Tournament off in Indianapolis’ Conseco Field House on Thursday. Now three of those teams have been sent back to campus to think about what could have been. Friday’s quarterfinals slate is loaded with matchups that could potentially change the NCAA Tournament landscape.

Ohio State vs. Michigan – 12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has listed Ohio State (24-7 straight up, 16-12 against the spread) as an 8 ½-point favorite with a total of 122.

The Buckeyes would have to be considered the hottest team in the Big Ten right now. After all, they’ve won 10 of their last 11 contests. Yet OSU has gone just 6-5 ATS in that stretch, but that is a bit misleading. Thad Matta’s program is coming into this quarterfinal match having gone 3-1 SU and ATS to close out the regular season.

Ohio State was clicking in its 73-57 regular season finale over the Fighting Illini as a 10-point home favorite on March 2. The Bucks were able to hit 44 percent of their shots from the field, while stealing the ball eight times from Illinois. Evan Turner pushed through 16 points and 12 rebounds to help pace the Buckeyes.

Matta’s crew is still in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in spite of losses to North Carolina, Butler, Minnesota and West Virginia.

Michigan (15-16 SU, 13-13-1 ATS) is coming into this tilt after dumping the Hawkeyes 59-52 as a seven-point favorite in Thursday’s opening round. Manny Harris was the driving force for the Wolverines with 22 points, nine rebounds and three steals.

The Wolverines did beat Ohio State in Ann Arbor as a two-point home “chalk” 73-64 on Jan. 3, but that was when Turner was out with his back injury. When the Buckeyes had Turner at full strength on Feb. 27, they won as 12 ½-point home favorites 66-55.

Ohio State has been practically automatic when listed as the “chalk,” evidenced by a 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS this season. The ‘under’ is also a healthy 11-6 in that time frame.

Michigan has gone just 3-7 SU this year when posted as an underdog. But they have been a gambler’s best friend by going 8-2 ATS. The ‘under’ is 8-1 in this situation for John Beilein.

Wisconsin vs. Illinois – 2:30 p.m. EST, ESPN

LVSC has opened this contest up with Wisconsin (23-7 SU, 16-11 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 122.

The Badgers have been riding high as they’ve won four straight games, covering in three of them. A lot of Wisky’s success is in playing stingy defense, which is giving up 56.1 points per game this year. Only Princeton and Northern Iowa have allowed fewer points to opponents. That efficiency on defense led to wins over No. 4 Purdue, No. 5 Michigan State and No. 6 Duke in Madison for the Badgers. And that play style for Bo Ryan’s team has turned into one of the better ‘under’ clubs to wager on with a 17-9 mark.

Illinois (18-13 SU, 11-18 ATS) finds itself precariously resting on the NCAA Tournament bubble after losing five of its last six contests to close out the regular season. Gamblers have done well to fade them during this skid as the Fighting Illini are 2-4 ATS in that stretch.

All is not bad for the Illini though as they have home wins over Michigan State and Vanderbilt. Plus they have a win at the Kohl Center against Wisconsin (its only home loss this year) and rallied from 23 down to beat Clemson back on Dec. 2.

While Weber’s crew has those wins to their credit, they’ll need a win on Friday to get themselves off of the bubble. Illinois does have a road win against the Badgers, but you’re only as good as your last game. The Illini were lacking in a lot of areas last Sunday in a 72-57 loss to Wisconsin as three-point home pups. Wisky was able to out rebound the Illini 40-29 and that will help actuate the fact that they only hit 36 percent from the field. Mike Tisdale did score 16 point for Illinois, but Jordan Taylor was the top performer. The Badgers’ guard picked up 20 point and eight rebounds.

We shouldn’t be shocked by Wisconsin’s domination in that game as they’ve gone 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five fixtures.

Illinois has not been a great underdog this season, evidenced by a 5-8 SU and 7-6 ATS mark. The ‘over’ has gone 8-5 in those contests as well.

Purdue vs. Northwestern – 6:30 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network

Purdue (26-4 SU, 12-16-1 ATS) might be without Robbie Hummel, but they look like they’re ready to move on strong. The Boilermakers closed out the season with two straight wins against Indiana and at Penn State. Matt Painter’s club was a 5 ½-point road favorite against the Nittany Lions in its 64-60 win last Saturday. JaJuan Johnson took over in that contest with 21 points and 10 rebounds.

While things are looking strong for the Boilermakers in terms of a national title run, they are failing bettors. Purdue has failed to cover the spread in five straight fixtures. The ‘under’ has been a great wager with them though as it’s on a 6-1 run.

Northwestern (20-12 SU, 17-9 ATS) continues to cling onto its NCAA Tournament hopes after rallying to upend the Hoosiers 73-58 as a nine-point favorite on Thursday night. John Shurna led the Wildcats to their first tourney win since 2005 with 14 points and seven boards. The combined 131 points went just ‘under’ the closing total of 134 ½. That closed off an 8-0 ‘over’ run.

There is a chance that all the Wildcats need to make it to their first Big Dance is one more win. And luckily for them they are going up against a Purdue side that they dumped 72-64 on Jan. 16 as 7 ½-point home ‘dogs.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 01:03 AM

SEC Tourney Quarterfinals

The SEC Tournament quarterfinals will tip off at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Friday in Nashville at the Bridgestone Center. Kentucky will have its legion of fans firmly behind it in what will truly amount to a home game in terms of crowd noise in favor of the beloved Wildcats, who face Alabama. Then Tennessee and Ole Miss will go at it in a game the Rebels absolutely have to have in order to be considered by the Selection Committee. Let’s take a look at these early games.

**Kentucky vs. Alabama**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Kentucky (29-2 straight up, 16-13 against the spread) as a 12-point favorite with a total of 134. However, as of late Thursday night, most books had UK favored by 9 1/2 with a total of 134 1/2.

--Alabama (17-14 SU, 13-13-2 ATS) advanced to the SEC Tournament quarterfinals by virtue of Thursday’s 68-63 comeback win over South Carolina as a two-point ‘chalk.’ The Crimson Tide trailed by 18 in the second half, only to rally to victory in stark contrast to the many leads they let get away during the regular season. Mikhail Torrance dropped in a team-high 17 points for the winners, while Justin Knox added 16 points and seven rebounds.

--Kentucky is the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament for the first time since 2005. The Wildcats are also going to be a top seed in next week’s NCAA Tournament. They have the Player of the Year candidate in Wall, who leads UK in scoring (16.9 points per game) assists (6.1 APG) and steals (1.8 per game). Most importantly, Wall has demonstrated a propensity for making a plethora of winning plays at crunch time.

--Anthony Grant’s team owns a 5-7-2 spread record in 14 games as an underdog.

--When these teams met at Rupp Arena on Feb. 9, UK won a 66-55 decision but the Tide took the cash as a 15-point underdog. John Wall scored a game-high 22 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. Tony Mitchell had 13 points and seven boards for ‘Bama.

--The ‘under’ is 17-9-1 overall for the Tide, while UK has watched totals turn out as a wash (14-14 overall) for bettors.

--The SEC Network will have the telecast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Ole Miss vs. Tennessee**

--LVSC opened Tennessee (24-7 SU, 12-15-1 ATS) as a 2 1/2-point favorite, but the number was down to one at most books by late Thursday night. The total was 137.

--Although Tennessee is a lock for the NCAA Tournament and Ole Miss (21-9 SU, 16-9-1 ATS) is on the bubble, it was the Rebels who had the first-round bye and watched the Vols in action on Thursday. UT looked lethargic from the get-go and the overall play set the sport back several years. Nevertheless, Bruce Pearl’s team advanced by beating LSU 59-49, but the Tigers covered the number as 11 ½-point underdogs. Needless to day, the ‘under’ was an easy winner.

--Wayne Chism was one of UT’s few bright spots against LSU, finishing with 17 points and 11 rebounds. The win was the fourth straight for the Vols, but we should not their 3-6 ATS mark in their last nine outings.

--Ole Miss (SU, ATS) got nothing but good news for its at-large hopes Thursday. For starters, Memphis and UAB lost to most likely doom their NCAA hopes. Also, Cal stayed alive in the Pac-10 Tournament, while Kansas St. – which represents the Rebels best non-conference victory – destroyed Oklahoma St. in the Big 12 Tourney. These developments put Andy Kennedy’s team in better position for Selection Sunday, assuming of course, that it can knock off the Vols.

--Ole Miss has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s crucial comeback win at Arkansas by a 68-66 score. Chris Warren was the catalyst with 31 points, as the Rebels hooked up their backers as 1 ½-point favorites.

--When these schools collided in Knoxville back on Jan. 16. Tennessee prevailed in overtime by a 71-69 count. However, Ole Miss covered the spread as a seven-point underdog. Chism dominated in the lane, producing 26 points and 12 rebounds. Warren had a team-high 19 points in the losing effort, but he was just 5-for-18 from the field.

Editor’s note: Please check back later for previews of Florida-Mississippi St. and the to-be-determined opponent for Vandy.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 01:04 AM

Big East Semifinals

The bank was open until nearly midnight at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. Da’Sean Butler took an inbound pass with three seconds left, dribbled to his left and faded away before burying a game-winning trey with Cincinnati’s Lance Stephenson all up in his grill. Butler’s shot got backboard first, then nets to lift West Va. to a 54-51 win in the nightcap game of the Big East Tournament quarterfinals.

The Mountaineers advanced to tonight’s semifinals to face Notre Dame. They led Cincy for 39 minutes and 54 seconds, but it appeared the Bearcats might pull out a nail-biter for a third straight night in the final minute. Stephenson, the freshman back at home in New York, had carried Mick Cronin’s team back into the game in the final minutes. He scored on a variety of drives to the rim and a dead-on 3 that tied the game at 51-51.

After an ugly possession by WVU, Cincy had the ball on the far baseline with six ticks left. However, sophomore Dion Dixon lost control of his dribble and eventually lost the ball out of bounds. (Am I the only one that wanted to see a replay from a different angle because official Jim Burr clearly got baited into the call by Bob Huggins and didn’t see whether the ball went off Dixon’s leg or not?)

The underdogs had been barking at MSG all day and night. Georgetown started the day by beating Syracuse 91-84 as a six-point underdog. Chris Wright scored a game-high 27 points for the Hoyas, who closed at plus-220 for money-line plays (paid $220 on $100 bets).

In the other day game, Marquette sent Villanova home early thanks to the heroics of Lazar Hayward, who scored 20 points and hit a monster trey at crunch time to propel his team to an 80-76 win. The Golden Eagles won outright as five-point underdogs to hook up money-line backers with a plus-180 payout (paid $180 on $100 wagers).

Notre Dame stayed hot by beating Pittsburgh 50-45 for its sixth straight win. The Irish have covered the number in seven straight outings after beating the Panthers as two-point puppies. Even better, the parlay combination of Notre Dame and the ‘under’ has been good in its last six assignments.

Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson scored 12 points apiece for the winners. ‘Gody’s free throws in the final seconds put the game on ice.

The Irish move on to face Bob Huggins’ bunch. There was no overight line for this contest. Mike Brey’s team knocked off the Mountaineers 70-68 as a 4 ½-point home underdog way back on Jan. 9.

The Notre Dame defense stymied Butler into a miserable 4-for-20 shooting performance at the Joyce Center. Harangody scored 24 points on the ‘Neers, while Ben Hansbrough had six points, nine rebounds and 10 assists.

As for Georgetown-Marquette, most books had the Hoyas as three-point ‘chalk’ as of early this morning. The total was in the 130-131 range. These schools met back on Jan. 6 in Milwaukee, where the Golden Eagles collected a 62-59 win as 1 ½-point home favorites.

The underdogs went 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS in the Big East quarterfinals. The 'over' hit in the two early games, but the night games saw the 'under' prevail twice.

ESPN will have television coverage of tonight's Big East doubleheader at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 01:46 PM

Missed the early morning games.....Was very busy with other things.......but here is the 2nd half of the morning games and early noon games......7pm games eastern posted a bit later...good luck !

Friday, March 12Game Score Status Pick Amount

Illinois - 2:25 PM ET Wisconsin -8 300
Wisconsin - Over 119 300

Rhode Island - 2:25 PM ET Saint Louis +4 500 ( A-10 DOG )
Saint Louis - Over 129 400

Miami-Florida - 2:25 PM ET Virginia Tech -3.5 300
Virginia Tech -

Tennessee - 3:15 PM ET Mississippi +2.5 200
Mississippi - Over 138 500 ( SEC TOTAL )

Alabama St. - 3:30 PM ET Under 124 300
Arkansas-Pine Bluff -

Tulsa - 4:00 PM ET Tulsa +3 400
Texas-El Paso - Over 133.5 500 ( CUSA TOTAL )

Lafayette - 4:45 PM ET Lafayette +7 400
Lehigh - Under 142.5 500

Hampton - 6:00 PM ET Over 134.5 300
Morgan St. -

Dayton - 6:30 PM ET Xavier -3 500 ( A-10 POD )

Xavier - Under 134 500

Houston - 6:30 PM ET Southern Mississippi +2 400
Southern Mississippi - Under 132.5 400

Northwestern - 6:30 PM ET Northwestern +8.5 500 ( BIG 10 DOG )

Purdue - Over 128.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

Friday, March 12Game Score Status Pick Amount

L.A. Clippers - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte -10 500
Charlotte - Under 188.5 300

Cleveland - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland -7.5 300
Philadelphia - Over 198 500

Indiana - 7:30 PM ET Indiana +9 400
Boston - Under 204.5 200

Chicago - 7:30 PM ET Miami -11.5 400
Miami - Under 191 400

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Washington +6 500 ( NBA DOG )

Detroit - Over 191 500

New York - 8:00 PM ET New York +7.5 400
Memphis - Over 210.5 300

San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +6.5 300
Minnesota - Over 203 400

Denver - 8:00 PM ET Denver -5 500 ( NBA DOG )
New Orleans - Over 210 500

New Jersey - 8:00 PM ET New Jersey +11 500 ( NBA BIG DOG )
Oklahoma City

Utah - 8:30 PM ET Milwaukee -1 500
Milwaukee - Over 196 300

L.A. Lakers - 9:00 PM ET Phoenix +2 500
Phoenix - Over 212.5 500 ( NBA TOTAL OF THE NIGHT )

Portland - 10:00 PM ET Sacramento +1 500
Sacramento - Under 192.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

Friday, March 12Game Score Status Pick Amount
Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey -119 500
New Jersey - Under 5.5 500

Tampa Bay - 7:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +286 500 ( BIG DOG )
Washington - Over 6.5 500

Minnesota - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo -196 500
Buffalo - Under 5.5 500

NY Rangers - 7:30 PM ET Atlanta +108 500
Atlanta - Over 5.5 500

Los Angeles - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -109 500
Dallas - Under 5.5 500

Nashville - 10:00 PM ET Nashville +131 500 ( POD )
Anaheim - Over 5.5 500

Good Luck and watch for upgrades.............

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 03:10 PM

Big XII Semifinals

The Big XII Quarterfinals were the domain of the favorites as they all wound up winning to play another day. Yet the underdogs were the strong play once again as they went 3-1 against the spread to send their backers to the window.

Kansas (30-2 straight up, 12-16-1 against the spread) finds itself in the semifinals after upending the surprisingly game Red Raiders 80-68 as a 17 ½-point favorite yesterday afternoon. The win gave the Jayhawks one more feather in their cap (bad pun) as they were the third team to pick up 2,000 wins. Only traditional powerhouses Kentucky and North Carolina have more wins in Division I basketball.

The Jayhawks made it past Texas Tech thanks to hitting 44 percent from the field and winning the rebound battle 44-30. But what really helped Bill Self’s crew is the fact that they can run 13 players out there on a given night. And out of those 13 ballers, five posted double-digit scoring. Cole Aldrich was the top performer for the kids from Lawrence by picking up 12 points and a game-high 18 rebounds.

Texas A&M (23-8 SU, 18-9 ATS) had to work late for its 70-64 win over the Cornhuskers last night as a eight-point “chalk.” The Aggies never trailed in this game, but Nebraska cut the lead to 62-58 win 95 seconds left in the second half. Bryan Davis put the game out of reach by putting in a layup and draining a free throw. Donald Sloan was the strong man for A&M by dropping in 23 points with three boards and four helpers.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants have posted the Jayhawks as 9 ½-point favorites with a total of 134. Bettors can take the Aggies to win outright for an extremely healthy plus-425 return (risk $100 to win $425). The Big XII Network has this game starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.

If you think that money line wager is too much to play on Texas A&M, then remember that they lost 59-54 to the ‘Hawks as a 6 ½-point home pup back on Feb. 15.

Kansas has only been a single-digit favorite eight times this season. In that frame, they are 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 5-3 in those contests as well. The Aggies are 4-6 SU and 7-3 ATS when posted as underdogs. The ‘under’ has cashed in for a 6-3-1 mark.

In the 9:30 p.m. EST tip-off on Big XII Network, Kansas State (25-6 SU, 17-8-1 ATS) will take on the Bears.

K-State wanted to make an example of the Cowboys yesterday and they did just that in an 83-64 romp as a 7 ½-point favorite. Jamar Samuels ran roughshod over Oklahoma State for 27 points, 10 rebounds and an assist. The Wildcats stifled the Cowpokes’ attack by allowing them to shoot just 40 percent from the field and 36 percent from three-point land.

Baylor (25-6 SU, 16-8 ATS) comes into his battle after dumping the Longhorns 86-67 in a matchup that most betting shops had as a pick ‘em. Ekpe Udoh was a machine against Texas, scoring 25 points with eight boards and three assists.

Most sportsbooks have tabbed Kansas State as a two-point “chalk” with a total of 144.

While some folks might think that spread is a bit too close, you have to realize that the Wildcats won 76-74 in Waco as 1 ½-point road pups back on Jan. 26. Plus, the Bears are 3-2 SU and ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings. The ‘over’ has been a top play for this battle as it has gone 4-2 in the last six matchups.

K-State has been almost automatic as a single-digit favorite this season, evidenced by a 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS record. The ‘over’ holds a slight 7-6 edge this year for total bettors.

Baylor has gone just 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season, with the ‘over’ going 5-2 in that time.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 03:13 PM

SEC Tourney Quarterfinals

**Gators and Dawgs advance**

In all likelihood, Florida’s win over Auburn last night will put it in the NCAA Tournament field, especially when considering Thursday’s losses by bubble teams like Memphis, UAB and Arizona State. (Washington also was trailing by nine at halftime against Oregon St.)

The Gators took the cash against the Tigers in a 78-69 win as 5 ½-point favorites. They advance to face Mississippi St. tonight at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. There was no overnight line for this contest.

Alex Tyus was the catalyst for UF, which snapped a three-game losing streak and improved to 21-11 overall. Tyus finished with 24 points on 11-of-16 shooting, while Chandler Parsons chipped in with 21 points.

Gamblers should take note of the Gators’ perfect record against SEC West schools this year. They knocked off Mississippi St. 69-62 as a three-point home favorite on Feb. 6. Vernon Macklin came out of nowhere to score 20 points in the lane against the NCAA’s all-time leading shot blocker, Jarvis Varnado, who had only one rejection on that day. Macklin has been a steady force offensively since emerging against the Bulldogs.

MSU sophomore point guard Dee Bost, who committed nine turnovers in the loss in Gainesville, has a hip injury that may slow him.

After last night's win over Auburn, one that likely will result in Jeff Lebo's dismissal, Billy Donovan told the Associated Press, “(Mississippi State is) a team that really has great speed, great athleticism. They really stretch you on defense because they do shoot the 3 from four different positions and they have a guy they can throw it inside to in (Jarvis) Varnado.”

Georgia ended a turbulent season for Arkansas sometime after midnight this morning. Trey Thompkins enjoyed a stellar performance, finishing with 23 points, 14 rebounds and six assists to lead UGA to a 77-64 win as a 1 ½-point underdog.

Mark Fox’s team will now face Vanderbilt. The Dawgs spanked the Commodores 72-58 in Athens and let a late lead get away in regulation at Vandy. Kevin Stallings’ squad eventually won 96-94 in overtime, but the Dawgs covered the spread while catching 12 points.

Friday Update at noon Eastern: Most books are listing Mississippi St. as a 1 1/2-point favorite against UF with the total in the 132-133 range. Also, most spots have Vandy favored by 7 1/2 over Georgia with a total of 141 1/2.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 05:52 PM

Your Evening games........

Georgetown - 7:00 PM ET Marquette +3.5 500 ( BIG EAST DOG )
Marquette - Under 130.5 500

Georgia Tech - 7:00 PM ET Maryland -4 400
Maryland - Over 144 300

Texas A&M - 7:00 PM ET Kansas -9.5 400
Kansas - Over 136.5 400

Western Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Western Michigan +3.5 300
Akron - Over 133.5 500

Florida - 7:30 PM ET Mississippi St. -1.5 300
Mississippi St. - Under 133 400

South Carolina State - 8:20 PM ET South Carolina State +2 500 ( POD )
Delaware State -

Massachusetts - 8:55 PM ET Massachusetts +10 400
Richmond - Under 132 400

Minnesota - 8:55 PM ET Minnesota +3 400
Michigan St -

UCLA - 9:00 PM ET UCLA +8 400
California - Over 139 500

San Diego St. - 9:00 PM ET New Mexico -2.5 300
New Mexico - Over 134.5 300

Louisiana Tech - 9:00 PM ET Utah St. -7.5 500 ( WAC POD )
Utah St. -

Grambling State - 9:00 PM ET Texas Southern -12 300
Texas Southern - Under 134.5 300

Notre Dame - 9:25 PM ET Notre Dame +5 500 ( BIG EAST SHOCKER )
West Virginia - Over 126.5 500

N.C. State - 9:30 PM ET N.C. State +6 500 ( ACC DOG )
Florida St. - Over 122 500

Baylor - 9:30 PM ET Baylor +2 400
Kansas St. - Under 146.5 400

Ohio - 9:30 PM ET Ohio -1.5 500 ( MID AM POD )
Miami (OH) - Over 128.5 500

UC Davis - 9:30 PM ET UC Santa Barbara -4.5 300
UC Santa Barbara - Under 130 400

Georgia - 9:45 PM ET Georgia +7.5 400
Vanderbilt - Over 141 500

Long Beach St. - 11:30 PM ET Pacific -3.5 500
Pacific -

Stanford - 11:30 PM ET Washington -8.5 500 ( PAC 10 POD )
Washington - Over 144.5 500

Brigham Young - 11:30 PM ET Brigham Young +1 400
UNLV - Over 147 400

New Mexico St. - 11:59 PM ET Nevada -6 500 ( WAC BLOWOUT )
Nevada - Over 160.5 500

**Sirporkie** · 03-12-2010, 05:57 PM

GL star! quite the write up

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 06:03 PM

SIR......just hope all those write up helps more then hurt you.......any edge we can get helps i suppose.....

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 06:04 PM

Trend Report - Friday

Clippers at Bobcats – The Clippers are 0-8 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 27, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a game on the road after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent. The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since November 05, 2008 after a game in which they had at least 15 fewer shot attempts than their opponent. The Bobcats are 6-0-1 ATS (8.0 ppg) since March 28, 2009 after a game on the road in which they shot at least 50% from the field.

Jazz at Bucks – The Jazz are 7-0 ATS (6.1 ppg) since December 21, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a game in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted. The Bucks are 13-0-1 ATS (8.5 ppg) since January 05, 2010 before playing at home. The Bucks are 9-0 ATS (6.0 ppg) since December 02, 2009 after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

Pacers at Celtics – The Pacers are 7-0 ATS (6.0 ppg) since January 07, 2009 on the road when they had at least ten more assists in their previous game than in the game before. The Celtics are 0-10 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since November 03, 2006 when playing the second game of a two game homestand after losing the first. The Celtics are 0-9 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since April 04, 1997 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they controlled 40% or less of the available rebounds.

Knicks at Grizzlies – The Knicks are 11-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since April 02, 1998 after a double digit loss against the Spurs. The Knicks are 7-0-1 ATS (5.6 ppg) since February 23, 2003 on the road with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Grizzlies are 10-0-1 ATS (10.8 ppg) since February 21, 2000 with at least one day of rest after a double digit road win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points.

Bulls at Heat – The Heat are 0-8 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since April 06, 2006 at home after a home win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Heat are 0-7 ATS (-12.3 ppg) since November 12, 2008 after a game at home in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.

Nuggets at Hornets – The Hornets are 8-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since December 19, 2007 after a game on the road in which they scored at least 25 fewer points than in the game before. The Nuggets are 0-6-1 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since March 18, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

Trailblazers at Kings – The Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since March 11, 2008 and when facing a team they beat in their first two match-ups of the season. The Kings are 8-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since December 28, 2001 with at least one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls.

Wizards at Pistons – The Pistons are 0-14 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since March 22, 2009 after a game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Pistons are 0-9 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since January 13, 2009 at home after a double digit loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

Cavaliers at 76ers – The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since January 15, 2008 on the road with 3+ days rest.

Lakers at Suns – The Lakers are 6-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since April 20, 1999 on the road off a home win that broke at least a three-game losing streak. The Suns are 0-8 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since December 19, 2000 with two or more days of rest after a game in which they had at least 10 shots blocked.

Nets at Thunder – The Nets are 7-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since February 03, 2010 on the road when facing a team they lost to in their previous same-season match-up. The Thunder are 7-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since November 17, 2009 after a game in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

Spurs at Timberwolves – The Timberwolves are 0-9 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since February 24, 2008 at home after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 06:06 PM

Inside the Paint - Friday

Even though most gamblers will be turning their attention to college basketball on Friday, the NBA does provide 12 opportunities for your wagering interest. While the Lakers-Suns matchup looks like the best battle on paper, this writer believes the Game of the Night happens from the Bradley Center when the Bucks and Jazz square off. We’re going to take a closer look at this matchup between the red-hot clubs and look at some other key angles too.
Let’s break ‘em down!

Utah (42-22 SU, 41-21 ATS) at Milwaukee (34-29 SU, 42-21 ATS)

Gamblers are forced into a tough spot on Friday because the Jazz and Bucks have been beating the spread on a regular basis lately. Milwaukee enters this game with 11 straight covers and is 22-3 against the spread in its last 25. Meanwhile, Utah has won and covered four in a row, plus its 10-3 both straight up and against the spread over the last 13.

Utah already ripped Milwaukee 112-95 on Jan. 16 as a 10-point home favorite. The combined 207 points easily surpassed the closing number of 194 ½.

Friday’s line opened as a pick ‘em, while the total is 195 ½. Utah has been a beast on the road (17-14 SU, 19-11 ATS) and Milwaukee has been a solid wager at home (21-9 SU, 20-10 ATS). The best bet here could be a pass and then fade each club in their next meeting, which happens Sunday. The Jazz head to Oklahoma City, while Milwaukee hosts Indiana.

Booed in Boston

The Celtics were embarrassed at home by Memphis (91-111) on Wednesday and the fans at TD Garden ripped the team at halftime and eventually emptied out midway through the fourth quarter. Losing at home (18-12 SU, 7-23 ATS) this season for Boston hasn’t been a big surprise but by 20 is a little stunning. To make matters worse for gamblers, the Celtics have posted a 7-23 ATS ledger on their homecourt. Do the trends continue or do you lay the wood with Boston against Indiana tonight? The Pacers are 1-3 SU in their last four against the Celtics but they are 4-0 ATS during this stretch.

Head-to-Head Dominance

Washington at Detroit: The Pistons have captured five in a row (4-1 ATS) against the Wizards and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS mark this year. Washington lost to Atlanta (99-105) last night but did cover as a seven-point home underdog. Make a note that this will be the second game in two nights for the Wizards plus they play again tomorrow at home versus Orlando. Thursday's game against the Hawks was a make-up contest, which created the brutal three games in three nights scenario.

San Antonio at Minnesota: San Antonio has won 10 consecutive meetings against Minnesota and that includes five in a row at Target Center. Greg Popovich’s team has gone 6-4 ATS over this span.

Portland at Sacramento: The Trail Blazers rallied past the Warriors for a 110-105 victory last night behind a 29-7 fourth quarter spurt. The club is playing two games in two nights on Friday, but that might not make a difference against the Kings. Portland has won five straight against Sacramento, including two wins this season.

Slumping Squads

Chicago opened up the second-half of the season with a 6-1 run both SU and ATS. Of those victories, only one (Portland) came against a team with a winning record. Since that stretch, the Bulls have dropped six in a row and five came by double digits, the other by nine. Last night, the Bulls were pasted 111-82 by the Magic and now they face Miami on Friday. Vinny Del Negro’s team has gone 6-10 SU and ATS on zero days rest this season. In Thursday's loss, point guard Derrick Rose sprained his wrist and he could miss some time. Injuries have plagued the team all year and the loss of Joakim Noah (foot) has been evident in the six-game losing skid. The defense has given up 114.3 PPG during this stretch.

The L.A. Clippers continue to be the laughing stock of the NBA, especially after reading about the Mike Dunleavy situation that happened this week. On the court, things have been just as worse. The Clips have given up 111.8 PPG in their last five games, which has produced an ugly 0-5 record. All of the losses have come by double digits and they failed to cover all five too.

Big Bad Bully

We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but Oklahoma City should earn a playoff spot this season. All-Star Kevin Durant has been playing above the rim and the team has been healthy for the majority of the season. Another key factor for the Thunder is their ability to beat up on bad teams, which is always a strong sign of a good club. Letdowns happen in every sport but the Thunder rarely play down to their competition. OKC is 20-11 SU and 17-14 ATS at home this year and the only real bad loss was to the L.A. Clippers (93-101), and that happened in November. More importantly, the team has covered 70 percent (7-3) of their games as a home favorite of seven or more. Tonight, they’re laying digits to New Jersey and Oklahoma City already beat the Nets 105-89 on the road in late December.

Total Trends

-- Seven of the last eight between the Bulls and Heat gave gone ‘under’

-- Washington has scored under 100 in five of its last six. The ‘under’ is 5-1 during this drought

-- Three of the last four between the Cavs and 76ers have gone ‘over’

-- New York is on a 4-0 ‘under’ run

-- The Jazz have seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 in the last eight

-- The previous six encounters between the Nets and Thunder have gone ‘under’

-- The Trail Blazers and Kings have seen their last four encounters go ‘under’

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 06:07 PM

Friday Game of the Day

Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns (9:00 p.m. EST)

Healing Time

Phoenix has won 14 of their last 18 games after a 3-8 stretch in mid-January. They’ve vaulted themselves back into 5th place in the Western Conference playoff standings and had a nice rest heading into Friday’s meeting with the Lakers.

The Suns have had the last five days off, having not played since last Saturday’s home win over Indiana. That extra time has given key players some needed rest.

Guard Leandro Barbosa is expected to make his return from wrist surgery against the Lakers on Friday after missing 21 straight games. He was averaging 10.6 PPG off the bench before his injury.

Barbosa said his right arm is still "a little weak" and there is some swelling. He added, "I'm very hungry to come back and help my teammates," he said. "We'll see what happens."

Barbosa – along with Steve Nash and Goran Dragic – used this time to rehab their nagging injuries. Nash was dealing with back and abdominal injuries while Dragic was dealing with an ankle injury.

The NBA suspended Suns center Channing Frye one game without pay for his part in an altercation that took place last Saturday. They will be without their spark-plug off the bench and his 11.6 PPG and 5.2 RPG and his ability to stretch the defense (leads team in 3-pointers made).

Tough Days for L.A.

The Lakers hadn’t lost three straight games since acquiring Pau Gasol from Memphis in February of 2008, at least until a three-game road trip through Miami, Charlotte and Orlando ended that streak. They nearly made it four straight in a home game against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday.

But, of course, Kobe Bryant had the answer, nailing a game-winning baseline jumper with 1.9 seconds on the clock – his 7th game winning shot this season. Although the Lakers won game in exciting fashion, there was a somber mood in the locker room afterwards.

Coach Phil Jackson, when asked if this team had the same consistent urgency of last season, he said, "I don't think so. We don't have that. Not that we can't reclaim it at some point. That's what we're trying to do." Jackson later added, simply, "The urgency of playing well has not struck us yet."

Other contenders now believe they can beat the Lakers, which is the first big step toward doing so.

"What's crazy about it is that these teams are getting confidence they can beat us," said forward Lamar Odom. "You can see it in their body language. There's a lot more talking. There's extra animation, even when they come here."

They are just 3-5 in their last 8 games and just 8-9 overall this season against potential contenders (teams currently in the top four spots of Eastern & Western conference standing).

The Lakers, losers of four straight away from home, have three straight Western Conference road games on the upcoming schedule – starting with Phoenix on Friday.

Head to Head

The last meeting between these two was on December 28th in Phoenix. The Suns held a lead nearly the entire game (led by as much as 22 at one point) and shot 48.9% to beat the Lakers by 15 points.

The Lakers have won four of the last six meetings (all at home) by an average margin of 17.5 PPG. Phoenix has won two straight home games over the Lakers but has dropped 7 of the last 10 vs. LA.

The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings but the Lakers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Phoenix.

Key Statistical Information – Last Five Games

PPG
Los Angeles: +1.0
Phoenix: +7.8

FG%
Los Angeles: -2.9%
Phoenix: +6.0%

Rebounding
Los Angeles: -1.8
Phoenix: +7.4

Trends

Los Angeles is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Pacific division games and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Phoenix is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 division games (NBA Pacific). The added rest may not be a good thing for the Suns, they are just 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 06:08 PM

Five for Four Spots

College basketball certainly deserves more attention right now but the Eastern Conference appears to be lining up for an excellent playoff chase, particularly in the bottom half of the seeding. Five teams are currently separated by just three games in the standings playing for the final four spots in the Eastern Conference playoffs. As usual it does not take a record far above .500 to make the playoffs in the East but that will not mean that these teams will not be threats in the playoffs.

Keep in mind that although these teams may not be considered title contenders they can still become serious threats in the playoffs from both S/U and ATS perspectives. Three of the eight first round series in the Eastern Conference over the past two years have gone to seven games with Atlanta and Miami in a tough #4/5 match-up last season, and Boston needing seven games each of the last two years against the Bulls and the Hawks respectively, despite playing as a #2 seed last season and a #1 seed in 2008. The recent fade for the Celtics will also make Boston an attractive first round opponent for whichever of these five teams will face them.

Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks earned some positive attention early in the season, mainly for some of the big numbers put up by rookie Brandon Jennings. While Jennings was carrying the load for Milwaukee the team showed flashes of success but ultimately was not consistent enough to be considered a viable playoff threat. A lot has changed in the last month however as the Bucks are now one of the most dangerous teams in the NBA. The patience with the Scott Skiles defensive system, the rise of Andrew Bogut as an elite center, and the addition John Salmons are three big reasons why Milwaukee is the one team that the top seeds will not want to face in the opening round.

In the last 20 games the Bucks are 16-4, and they have been even better on the ATS numbers for those that have caught on to how well this team is playing. The schedule has been favorable in this stretch as only six wins have come against winning teams, and four of those wins came against teams that are just barely over .500 but what has been impressive is an 8-2 road record in that span. Home wins last week against Cleveland (albeit without James) and Boston helped to legitimize the run. Milwaukee certainly has the momentum to be considered the favorite of this group to take the #5 spot or even a long shot to move up and the schedule ahead should be reasonable. Eleven of the remaining 19 games are in Milwaukee where the Bucks are 21-9. Eleven games are against winning teams however including a very tough final three games that could potentially be playoff series previews, playing Boston twice surrounding the final home game with Atlanta.

Toronto Raptors: A month ago the Raptors looked like the unquestioned #5 team in the East and a team that might even push to break the top four. It has been a rough stretch for Toronto however, losing seven of the last eight games and looking like a team that could slide further. The schedule has been very tough in this span for the Raptors but the play has not led to a lot of optimism about this team improving down the stretch. The Raptors did not make any moves to improve the team at the trade deadline and with the pending departure of Chris Bosh after the season, things are not looking up for this franchise even though there was some promise early in the year. Former top pick Andrea Bargnani has shown significant improvement and rookie DeMar DeRozan has played capably but this team looks like a likely candidate to fall out of the playoff picture.

There may be hope for the Raptors in the schedule. Toronto has been a horrible road team with a 10-21 S/U mark but there are only ten remaining road games on the schedule and half of them come against weak competition. The Raptors also close the season with six of the final nine games against losing teams so a strong finish in a race that could be tight should be available for Toronto. While this team may look like a sinking ship, Toronto closed last season with solid results down the stretch through a very tough schedule.

Charlotte Bobcats: After a rough month of February where the Bobcats went 4-7, Charlotte seems to be back on track with four consecutive wins, including impressive wins over Los Angeles and Miami. Charlotte has been active with personnel moves this season, acquiring Stephen Jackson and Tyrus Thomas to boost the scoring production and both have shown improved numbers since the move. Charlotte is one of the lowest scoring teams in the NBA, averaging just over 94 points per game but the Bobcats also have allowed the fewest points per game in the entire NBA under Coach Larry Brown.

Charlotte would make the playoffs if the season ended today, something that has rarely been said during the brief franchise existence. Charlotte will have to weather a difficult stretch of road games in the middle of March but will also have a five-game home stand at the end of the month featuring three losing teams and the two teams currently just ahead of the Bobcats fighting for the #5 spot. The Bobcats will play very few games against the elite teams down the stretch and this should be a schedule that allows the Bobcats to maintain playoff positioning.

Miami Heat: The Heat have been incredibly streaky this season and the playoff spot for Miami will likely depend on which type of streak is working late in the season. Miami has a superstar in Dwyane Wade that is capable of carrying his team in the playoffs but getting there will not be easy. The Heat added Rafer Alston at the trade deadline but did not complete a bigger move to make a more significant push. 2nd year player Michael Beasley has emerged as a quality contributor and this team has decent depth with a nice mix of veterans and young players but this team has had two losing streaks of at least four games in the last six weeks. Miami has recently won four of the past five to get back into the temporary playoff picture however.

Based just on scheduling Miami looks like a clear lock to make the playoffs assuming the team wins the games they should win. While eight of the final twelve games will be on the road, Miami only has five remaining games against teams that have winning records. Four of those five games will be at home so the Heat has the potential to finish with a really strong record down the stretch. Miami will have several games against some of the worst teams in the league and the Heat could enter the playoffs with momentum, though be aware it may be phony momentum built by a weak closing schedule.

Chicago Bulls: The Bulls are currently the odd team out in the playoff race, sitting a game below .500. The Bulls are riding a five game losing streak and although the last four losses all have come at home, the competition has been stiff. Statistically the near .500 record should be no surprise as the Bulls are near the dead center in the league in many categories. This is a team that has to feel like a serious disappointment however considering the great playoff effort last season, taking Boston to seven games. The Bulls basically folded at the all star break, giving up John Salmons and picking up Hakim Warrick and Ronald Murray rather than going for a bigger move to seriously boost the team. Still this is team that can make the playoffs on the strength of 2nd year player Derrick Rose and a still solid supporting cast.

Unless Toronto continues to fade the Bulls are probably the team that misses the playoffs in this group. The remaining schedule is tough with the next five all against playoff contenders including four in a row on the road. The year closes with six of the final seven games against winning teams as well. Chicago only has five remaining games against teams that currently have losing records and only one of those games is at home so things may get worse before they get better for the Bulls, a team that should have a more exciting off-season than postseason.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-12-2010, 06:20 PM

Not as easy as it looks for favorites

Underdogs ruled the day on Thursday, covering over 58 percent of games played by teams that typically have their contests with lines from oddsmakers. With the stakes increase as the tournaments move along, are the favorites more or less vulnerable as these conflicts move ahead? Here are wagering aspects to consider about tonight’s varied line-up and what might occur for those in the favored position.

Starting in the ACC, Florida State won five of last six contests to move up to third seed in the conference and tries to return to championship game for a second straight year. Sportsbook.com has the Seminoles as six-point favorites, which is possible dicey situation since they are 8-17 ATS this season, having dropped their last three.

North Carolina State provides the opposition and they are 4-1 SU and ATS in last five games, shooting over 50 percent three different times. The Wolfpack have been ordinary at best again this season with 18-14 record, however off upset of Clemson last night, they own 14-4 ATS record on Friday’s (the ACC doesn’t play on Friday’s in the regular season), which suggests Florida State could have trouble on their hands.

Michigan State might have tied for the Big Ten championship, but those setting the numbers are far from impressed. The Spartans face a Minnesota squad that also failed to meet expectations this campaign with 19-12 record, nonetheless, the Golden Gophers are burying opponents with 5-2 finish and six covers. Minnesota is long and lost twice to Michigan State by six points and one point and realizes who’s to blame.

"Last time we played Michigan State we lost by one point and we made a lot of mistakes in the last four minutes, so I definitely think we can pull off the upset," said Gophers Devoe Joseph.

The Spartans have won eight straight over Minnesota, covering seven of them, but Minny has shot 58 percent or higher in last two games and is 6-0 ATS after a contest where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.

UTEP won its first outright conference title in 23 years and is hardly being rewarded for it in Conference USA. Normally, the league champion plays the earliest game in the quarterfinals, not the C-USA, they had the Miners in the last game of the day and their reward is having to play Tulsa in their home town, about 16 hours after soundly defeating Central Florida 76-54 as 10-point favorites in the first semi-final. "No other tournament in the country is doing that," said Miners coach Tony Barbee.

UTEP has won 16 in a row (10-6 ATS), which included a pair of wins over Tulsa. The Miners are 3.5-point favorites and 7-0 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more since last season. The Golden Hurricane will have revenge and partisan crowd in this quasi-home game and Tulsa is 12-3 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick.

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