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**StarDust Bum** · 03-10-2010, 11:35 PM

SEC Tourney Primer

The SEC Tournament returns to Nashville this year and the home of the NHL’s Nashville Predators, Bridgestone Arena. Kentucky is the minus-125 ‘chalk’ (risk $125 to win $100) to cut the nets down Sunday in Music City. Those odds, and the following ones, are provided by Sportsbook.com.

Vanderbilt has the second-shortest odds with gamblers getting a chance to cash a plus-350 ticket (risk $100 to win $350) on the Commodores. Like Vandy, Tennessee is playing in its home state with plus-450 for its future number.

Going into the league tournament, UK, UT and Vandy are considered the only locks to hear their names called this Sunday night when the NCAA Tournament pairings are announced. However, we should note that the last two SEC Tournaments were won by schools that would’ve otherwise been nowhere near making the field.

In 2008, Georgia was the sixth seed in the East when it arrived at the Georgia Dome to face Ole Miss late Thursday night. The Dawgs would eventually win by a 97-95 count in overtime. The next night, a tornado rolled through downtown Atlanta and caused significant damage to the area.

Therefore, the rest of the tourney was moved to Ga. Tech’s arena, Alexander Memorial Coliseum, where only family members of the coaches and players along with media were allowed into the arena. On Saturday morning, UGA beat Kentucky 60-56 in overtime.

Later that day, the Dawgs beat Mississippi St. Finally on Sunday, Dennis Felton’s team knocked off Arkansas to earn the SEC’s automatic bid. Georgia AD Damon Evans had been prepared to fire Felton before the team’s improbable run that was fueled by tournament MVP Sundiata Gaines.

Then last season, Mississippi St. was the team to catch fire in Tampa at the St. Pete Times Forum, as the event took place in the Sunshine State for the first time since 1990. The Bulldogs beat Tennessee 64-61 in the finals as 5 ½-point underdogs.

The Bulldogs, who are the No. 1 seed from the SEC West this year, will face the Florida-Auburn winner in Friday’s quarterfinals matchup at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. Rick Stansbury’s team, by virtue of a loss at Auburn and a home setback against Tennessee to close the regular season, probably have to win the league’s automatic bid.

In fact, Ole Miss, which is the No. 2 seed in the West, has better at-large hopes than its in-state rivals, who actually beat the Rebels twice during the regular season. If Andy Kennedy’s team can beat the LSU-Tennessee winner, assuming that would be the Vols, it becomes a player in the conversation depending on how other bubble schools fare this week.

The Gators, who have been to the NIT in consecutive years after winning back-to-back national championships, are probably going to be in decent shape with a win over Auburn. Then again, if other bubble teams get busy this weekend, UF might also need to beat Mississippi St. Billy Donovan’s team prevailed over the Bulldogs when these schools collided in Gainesville last month.

Let’s take a look at all four of Thursday’s first-round games…

**South Carolina vs. Alabama**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Alabama (16-14 straight up, 12-13-2 against the spread) as a one-point favorite with a total of 138.

--Anthony Grant’s team garnered the No. 4 seed from the West division by beating Auburn 73-61 in Saturday’s regular-season finale. The Crimson Tide hooked up its backers as five-point home favorites. Freshman forward Tony Mitchell was the catalyst with 16 points and seven rebounds. MikHail Torrance finished with 13 points, 12 boards and six assists.

--South Carolina (15-15 SU, 10-17 ATS) took a six-game losing streak both SU and ATS into its regular-season finale Saturday at Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks brought that slide to an end behind the hot second-half shooting of Devan Downey, who sparked USC to a 77-73 win over the Commodores as a 10-point road underdog. Downey had 26 points, while junior forward Sam Muldrow tallied 20 points and nine rebounds.

--When these schools met in Columbia last Wednesday, ‘Bama captured a 79-70 win as a four-point road underdog. Torrance led the Tide with 17 points, eight assists and six rebounds, while Justin Knox chipped in with 17 points and seven boards. Downey went for 23 points, but Muldrow was limited to seven on 1-of-8 shooting from the field.

--JaMychal Green, ‘Bama’s sophomore star who averages 14.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per contest, was suspended for the win at S-Carolina for an unspecified violation of team rules. He came off the bench against Auburn but was limited to only one point, three rebounds and three turnovers in just 14 minutes of play.

--The ‘under’ has been a major money maker for both of these teams this year, going 17-9 overall for the ‘Cocks and 16-9 overall for the Tide.

--‘Bama and USC both have 60/1 odds to win the SEC Tourney at Sportsbook.com.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. The winner will take on Kentucky at 1:00 p.m. on Friday.

**LSU vs. Tennessee**

--LVSC opened Tennessee (23-7 SU, 12-14-1 ATS) as a 12 ½-point favorite with a total of 135.

--LSU (11-19 SU, 9-17 ATS) has endured a nightmare campaign after losing Marcus Thornton, Garrett Temple and Chris Johnson following last season’s trip to the NCAA Tournament’s second round before losing to eventual national champ, North Carolina. With that said, the Tigers have won two of their last four games and are 4-2 ATS in their last six outings.

--Trent Johnson’s squad won its regular-season finale 50-48 Saturday as a 1 ½-point home favorite. On his Senior Day, Tasmin Mitchell had a team-high 20 points to lead his team to its second SEC victory. Bo Spencer added 10 points, including a key go-ahead trey at crunch time.

--Bruce Pearl’s squad has won five of its last six games, including a dominating performance this past Saturday at The Hump in Starkville. The Volunteers slammed Mississippi St. 75-59 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. They hooked up money-line backers with a plus-150 payout (risk $100 to win $150). J.P. Prince scored a game-high 16 points, while Brian Williams had 10 points and 13 boards.

--Tennessee owns a 5-6 spread record in 11 games as a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile, LSU is 2-5 versus the number in seven double-digit underdog spots.

--When these teams met in Baton Rouge at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center back on Feb. 4, UT survived a game effort from the Bayou Bengals to win a 59-54 decision. However, LSU took the cash as a 6 ½-point home underdog. Wayne Chism was the only Vol in double figures with 20 points. Spencer had a game-high 25 points in defeat, while Mitchell went for 13 points and 17 boards.

--The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive LSU games and is 18-7 overall for the Tigers.

--Tennessee has seen the ‘under’ go 16-7 overall.

--This game will come off the board 30 minutes after the conclusion of USC-Alabama. The SEC Network will have the telecast around 3:30ish p.m. ET. The winner gets Ole Miss at the same time on Friday.

**Florida vs. Auburn**

--LVSC opened Florida (20-11 SU, 14-12 ATS) as a six-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 142.

--UF comes to Music City on a three-game losing streak but unlike the last two years, the Gators are playing well right now. Prior to the three-game slide, Florida had won nine of its previous 12 games. Two Saturdays ago, UF lost a 78-76 heartbreaker to Georgia in Stegeman Coliseum, the same arena where the Dawgs also knocked off Saint Louis, Ga. Tech, Vandy and Tennessee. Then last Tuesday, UF led Vandy for nearly the entire second half before going the last nine-plus minutes without a bucket from the field. Nevertheless, Kenny Boynton had a great look at a go-ahead trifecta in the waning seconds, only to misfire in a 64-60 loss.

--In Sunday’s regular-season finale at Rupp Arena, Kentucky ran out to an 18-point lead in the first half. But the Gators wouldn’t go away. In fact, they trimmed the deficit all the way to two at 62-60 in the final five minutes. UK withstood the charge, however, and pulled away for a 74-66 triumph. UF covered the spread as an 11 ½-point underdog.

--Auburn (15-16 SU, 12-11-2 ATS) is playing out the final chapter of Jeff Lebo’s unspectacular tenure here. Like Felton at Georgia in recent seasons, Lebo inherited NCAA sanctions from the Cliff Ellis Era. And according to multiple VI sources, Lebo was also like Felton in another way. He refused to cut corners or ever bend, much less break, any rules. The result, barring a run similar to Felton’s Dawgs circa ’08, will result in Lebo’s pink slip in the next week.

--When these teams met at the O-Dome on Feb. 18, UF captured a 78-70 victory as a nine-point home favorite. Chandler Parsons led the winners with 17 points, six rebounds and four assists. Erving Walker put the game on ice with a plethora of free throws in the final minute. The Brooklyn native finished with 14 points – all from the charity stripe – and six assists. DeWayne Reed had a game-high 22 points and six assists before fouling out in the losing effort.

--Auburn has been a lucrative squad to support in recent weeks, compiling a 9-3-2 spread ledger in its last 14 games. The Tigers are 7-5-1 ATS in 13 games as underdogs.

--UF owns a 4-6 ATS mark in 10 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

--UF has 12/1 odds to win its fourth SEC Tournament title in school history. All three previous titles came in succession from 2005-2007. Auburn’s future number for this tourney is 200/1.

--The ‘over’ is 15-7 overall for Auburn. On the flip side, the ‘under’ has gone 13-9 overall for the Gators.

--The SEC Network will provide television coverage at 7:30 p.m. ET.

**Georgia vs. Arkansas**

--LVSC opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 144.

--Georgia (13-16 SU, 16-12 ATS) was on a profit-producing 15-4 ATS run before dropping back-to-back games both SU and ATS to close the regular season. The Dawgs lost their home finale to Kentucky by an 80-68 score as eight-point underdogs last Wednesday. Then they went to Baton Rouge and lost a nail-biter, 50-48.

--Arkansas (14-17 SU, 12-12 ATS) has lost five in a row, going 1-4 ATS in the process. The Razorbacks raced out to a double-digit lead in the first half Saturday vs. Ole Miss and led the Rebels by 10 at halftime. But the home team couldn’t finish off Chris Warren and Co. Warren scored a game-high 31 points and hit a crucial 3-pointer at crunch time, as Ole Miss stayed alive in its quest for an at-large invite to the Big Dance with a 68-66 win. The Rebs also covered the number as 1 ½-point road ‘chalk.’

--I backed UGA when it hosted Arkansas as a 4 ½-point home ‘chalk’ on Feb. 3. I thought I had a winner in my pocket when the Dawgs went to intermission with a commanding 37-22 advantage. However, Hogs sophomore guard Courtney Fortson led his team back to win a 72-68 decision. Fortson finished with 27 points, while Michael Washington added 15 points and eight rebounds. For UGA, Trey Thompkins had 21 points and seven boards.

--If there’s a longshot to look at in this event, it says here that Georgia should be that team at 100/1 odds. As we mentioned, the Dawgs made an unlikely run at a similarly generous price just two seasons ago with Albert Jackson and Jeremy Price playing pivotal roles. Most importantly, the draw looks attractive for UGA, which would get Vandy in a potential second-round game. The Dawgs stroked the ‘Dores 72-58 in Athens before losing in overtime at Vandy in a game they should’ve won in regulation. The likely semifinal foe – MSU or UF – wouldn’t intimidate the Dawgs, who beat UF recently as mentioned and lost by just three to the Bulldogs in Starkville.

--Fortson missed the first 14 games of the year due to suspension. In the 17 games he’s played, Fortson has averaged 18.1 points, 6.0 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game despite usually being the smallest player on the court.

--This is Thursday’s late-night game that most likely won’t tip until around 10:00 p.m. ET.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The SEC Tournament will return to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta in 2011. In 2012, the event will be moved to the New Orleans Arena in the Crescent City.

--Auburn has certainly enjoyed pockets of hoops success during Sonny Smith’s tenure and at times on Ellis’s watch, but it isn’t the most attractive job in the SEC by any means. That will change to some degree with this coaching search since the Tigers are moving into a brand new arena next season.

--Ole Miss has 10/1 odds to win this tourney, while Mississippi St. has a 12/1 number.

--I still say Kentucky isn’t going to the Final Four even though it might have the nation’s best talent. The Fab Five at Michigan was even younger than these ‘Cats in the early 1990s, but the Wolverines were much mature than this outfit. Jalen Rose was wise beyond his years while Juwan Howard and Chris Webber were much steadier than the mercurial DeMarcus Cousins. John Wall, like Rose, is tremendous in the clutch but he allows himself to get frustrated when he’s not getting his shots or points. I just don’t see it happening for John Calipari’s squad.

All-SEC, First-Team:
John Wall (Kentucky)
Patrick Patterson (Kentucky)
Devan Downey (South Carolina)
Jarvis Varnado (Mississippi St.)
Chris Warren (Ole Miss)

Second-Team All-SEC:
Tasmin Mitchell (LSU)
Trey Thompkins (Georgia)
DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky)
Jermaine Beal (Vandy)
Jeffery Taylor (Vandy)

Third-Team All-SEC:
Wayne Chism (Tennessee)
Chandler Parsons (Florida)
Travis Leslie (Georgia)
J.P. Prince (Tennessee)
Erving Walker (Florida)

Fourth-Team All-SEC:
Dee Bost (Mississippi St.)
Terrico White (Ole Miss)
A.J. Ogilvy (Vandy)
Courtney Fortson (Arkansas)
Kenny Boynton (Florida)

SEC All-Freshman Team:
John Wall (UK)
DeMarcus Cousins (UK)
Kenny Boynton (UF)
Marshawn Powell (ARK)
John Jenkins (VANDY)

**StarDust Bum** · 03-10-2010, 11:37 PM

ACC Opening Round

The Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament tips off Thursday with its opening round action. Even though North Carolina won the NCAA Tournament last year and the conference has won four championships since 2000, this group is down and we mean really down this year.

If you take out fourth-ranked Duke, the other 11 teams don’t pose much of a threat. Perhaps you can make a case for No. 19 Maryland, who recently beat the Blue Devils at home, but it’s hard to dismiss non-conference losses by Gary Williams’ team to Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Villanova and William & Mary.

If the Blue Devils do lose at Greensboro Coliseum, it will most likely come from a poor shooting performance. Even then, it’s still tough to see an upset happening and the oddsmakers at Bodog.com agree.

Team/Odds

Duke - 2/3
Maryland - 3/1
Florida State - 13/2
Virginia Tech - 8/1
Wake Forest - 12/1
Clemson - 12/1
North Carolina -12/1
Georgia Tech -15/1
Field -15/1
Boston College - 30/1

In case you’re wondering, the Field Bet includes Virginia, Miami, Fl. and N.C. State. All three of those schools meet today, along with five others.

Let’s take a closer look at the four matchups.

No. 9 Virginia vs. No. 8 Boston College (12:00 p.m.)

BC (15-15 SU, 13-13 ATS) opened up as a five-point favorite against Virginia (14-15 SU, 10-14 ATS) and the line seems fair based on past history and current form. The Eagles have won three straight meetings against the Cavaliers, including a 68-55 decision last Wednesday from Chestnut Hill. BC opened up a big lead (37-24) at the break and did enough to hold off any late rally from UVA.

Including this loss, the Cavaliers have dropped nine straight games heading into the ACC Tournament. What’s even worse for UVA backers is that the team posted a 1-8 ATS run during this stretch and the lone cover came by a hook. The offense has only been able to surpass the 60-point plateau four times during this skid and head coach Tony Bennett just suspended Sylven Landesberg (17 PPG) for the season.

Boston College is by no means a powerhouse but it’s been a little more competitive than UVA. Al Skinners’ team closed the regular season with a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS run. Both losses came on away from home, and gamblers should make a note that the school is 4-9 SU and 6-7 ATS in road or neutral games this season.

The winner of this game will face Duke on Friday and that’s not good news. Virginia (0-1) and Boston College (0-2) were a combined 0-3 against the Blue Devils and two of the losses were by double digits.

Total players would most likely lean to the ‘under’ in this spot due to Bennett’s slow-it-down style, plus neither team has legit firepower on the outside. The total is hovering between 123 and 124.

No. 12 Miami, Fl vs. No. 5 Wake Forest (2:25 p.m.)

Wake Forest (19-9 SU, 15-10 ATS) and Miami (18-12 SU, 11-9-2 ATS) conclude the afternoon action from Greensboro in a matchup of slumping schools. The Demon Deacons and Hurricanes both enter Thursday’s tilt with 1-4 skids and both teams aren’t playing to the level of their overall records.

Miami might have 18 victories on the season but only four are in ACC play and eight of those wins were against the VegasInsider.com pick-up squad. We like to joke folks, but if you look at their team log, it’s very embarrassing for “The U.” Then again, it’s not a basketball school.

Wake Forest went 9-7 in conference play and it actually owns some solid non-conference wins over Gonzaga, Richmond and Xavier, the last two coming in overtime. The Deacons did beat Clemson (70-65) last Sunday to snap a four-game losing streak but will that effort carry over to Thursday?

The Hurricanes and Demon Deacons split the regular season series with the home team winning each battle. The ‘under’ has cashed in the last six encounters between the pair, including both games this season.

Virginia Tech awaits the winner of this matchup tomorrow. The Hokies went 2-1 against the Hurricanes (1-1) and Demon Deacons (1-0) this season.

No. 10 North Carolina vs. No. 7 Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m.)

The Yellow Jackets look to win their third straight game over the Tar Heels this season when they tangle in the primetime matchup. Georgia Tech (19-11 SU, 13-10 ATS) blasted UNC by 17 (68-51) in Atlanta and by two (73-71) in Chapel Hill. The ‘under’ easily cashed in both outings.

UNC (16-15 SU, 10-19 ATS) is still considered an elite program but this year’s squad is not close to being elite. Prior to last Saturday’s embarrassing 32-point (50-82) loss at Duke, the team did post back-to-back wins albeit against Miami and a struggling Wake club. On the road, the ‘Heels have gone 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS.

This game means a lot more for Georgia Tech, who is considered to be on the bubble. A win here would help but a loss would be devastating. The Yellow Jackets closed the year with just three wins in their last nine games. G-Tech hasn’t been a good bet in road and neutral games either, going 5-9 SU and 7-6-1 ATS.

The 143-point total seems doable considering the tempo that UNC likes to play, plus G-Tech has gone ‘over’ in four straight heading into this matchup. The only issue is the Tar Heels’ offense has been inconsistent, which has helped the ‘under’ go 18-8.

The winner here meets Maryland in the primetime matchup on Friday. The Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets both lost to the Terrapins in their only opportunity in the regular season.

No. 11 N.C. State vs. No. 6 Clemson (9:25 p.m.)

Clemson (21-9 SU, 14-13 ATS) is one of the tougher teams to gauge in the ACC. They have a talented big man in Trevor Booker but they tend to go away from him at times. When the Tigers do, they usually suffer like they did last Sunday at Wake Forest (65-70). Before that loss, Oliver Purnell’s team had won five of six, including two wins against FSU, which could be tomorrow’s opponent (see below).

The Tigers will face a less talented N.C. State (17-14 SU, 14-13 ATS) squad in Thursday’s finale but they’re playing better. The Wolfpack closed the regular season by winning three of four games.

Clemson beat N.C. State 73-70 on Jan. 16 in Raleigh but it failed to cover as a five-point road favorite. The Tigers led by 17 points at the half, but was outscored 42-28 in the final 20 minutes. The combined 143 points barely slid ‘over’ the closing number of 139.

Both N.C. State (13-11) and Clemson (16-9) were both considered ‘under’ teams this year, similar to a lot other squads in the ACC. Also, the Wolfpack are on a 6-1 ‘under’ run heading into tonight.

Florida State awaits the winner and gamblers should make a note that N.C. State (1-0) and Clemson (2-0) were both unbeaten against the Seminoles this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-10-2010, 11:39 PM

Primed for the Big Ten

There aren’t many places that treat basketball quite like they do in Indiana. Basketball is almost a religion in the Hoosier State and makes the perfect place for the Big Ten to stage its tournament.

The Big Ten Conference Tournament is widely considered a three-horse race between Ohio State, Michigan State and Purdue. Sportsbook.com has tabbed the Buckeyes as the favorite for the championship for a plus-175 return (risk $100 to win $175).

Tom Izzo’s Spartans are coming in at plus-225 for this week’s event, while the Boilermakers are stretched out to 9/2 to win the tournament. Wisconsin might be listed as the No. 4 seed, but they’re getting much better odds to win it all at 5/2.

Purdue’s station on the board no doubt coincides with the loss of Robbie Hummel to a knee injury. As bad as losing Hummel is, the Boilermakers are still posted as a No. 2 see for the NCAA Tournament by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Plus, Matt Painter’s club is the defending conference tournament champions.

Regardless of how the Boilermakers perform in this tourney, they know they’re going in with those three aforementioned teams into the field of 65. The Fighting Illini are also currently penciled in for a spot in the race for the national championship.

While we seem to have five teams for the Big Dance, the Big Ten tourney has been home to some close calls for at-large teams and bettors alike. There have been four teams in the 12 years of this event that were no higher than the No. 8 seed to make the championship game.

So who was the lowest seed ever to win the Big Ten Tournament? Iowa finished the regular season in sixth place, but wound up edging the Hoosiers 63-61 in 2001 for the league’s automatic bid.

The team with the most to gain from a strong run in this year’s tourney is the Golden Gophers, who are the No. 6 seed against Penn State. Minnesota will most likely have to win the whole thing in order to get into the show. Tubby Smith’s squad got swept by Michigan this year and dropped one to Indiana as well. I wouldn’t hold my breath on the Gophers at 20/1 as they’ve not won the Big Ten crown since 1982 (The ’97 title was vacated).

Let’s take a look at all three first-round contests.

Michigan vs. Iowa – 2:30 p.m. EST, ESPN2

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the line for this contest with Michigan (14-16 straight up, 13-13 against the spread) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 119.

The Wolverines had big expectations after making the NCAA Tournament last season. Cold shooting and porous defense have the Maize and Blue looking at this event being the postseason play they’ll have for the second time John Beilein’s three years in Ann Arbor.

Michigan limps into this game after going 3-6 SU and ATS in its final nine games of the regular season. In their 64-48 embarrassment to Michigan State last Sunday, the Wolverines shot just 35 percent from the field. You had an idea that things weren’t going to be good for Beilein’s crew when DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris registered just one shot apiece in the first half against the Spartans. Harris and Sims lead the team in scoring this year with 17.7 and 16.9 points per game respectively.

Iowa (10-21 SU, 11-17 ATS) comes into this game having lost two straight matches and nine of its last 11 matches. Bettors know that they were only able to cover the number in five of those games as well. The Hawkeyes didn’t do much to make their faithful believe they’ll make a run in the playoffs after getting drilled 88-53 as 14-point road pups to Minnesota on March 7. Aaron Fuller, arguably the best player Iowa has on its roster, put up 16 points on 55 percent shooting. Fuller’s teammates, unfortunately, shot just a combined 39 percent from the field.

Michigan swept the season series with the Hawkeyes, covering in one of them with the total going 1-1. The most recent meeting saw the Wolverines win as four-point road faves 80-78 in overtime on Feb. 16. Harris scored 20 points to go along with 10 rebounds. Sims also popped in with 27 points and 10 boards. Iowa’s Fuller tried to do it almost all on his own with 30 points and 13 rebounds.

Iowa has seen the totals go 13-13 for them this year, but are on a 4-2-1 ‘over’ run at the end of the regular season. The Wolverines have watched the ‘under’ go 17-8 this year, hitting in three of their last four matches.

Both of these teams are considered longshots to win the Big Ten Tournament with Michigan posted at 100/1 and the Hawkeyes at 1,000/1 by Sportsbook.com.

The winner of this contest will take on top-seeded Ohio State. Michigan did beat the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor as a two-point home “chalk” 73-64 on Jan, but that was when Evan Turner was out with his back injury. With Turner in the lineup on Feb. 27, OSU won as a 12 ½-point home favorite 66-55 against the Wolverines. Iowa lost both of its meetings with the Bucks this season outright, but did cover the number in both of them.

Northwestern vs. Indiana – 5:00 p.m. EST, ESPN 2

LVSC opened this contest up with the Wildcats listed as six-point favorites and a total of 130.

Northwestern (19-12 SU, 16-9 ATS) looked like they were actually going to make its first trip to the NCAA Tournament this year after starting 10-1. All that went for naught after posting a 7-11 SU record in Big Ten play. Bettors have enjoyed backing them for the most part in league play as the ‘Cats are 11-7 ATS.

We should note that it wasn’t always a lost cause for Bill Carmody’s crew. Until mid-February, the Wildcats still have a reasonable shot at the Big Dance, but closing out 2-4 SU and 2-3 ATS wasn’t good.

Indiana (10-20 SU, 12-15 ATS) has yet to find its way under Tom Crean, but it’s awfully hard to fix something that Kelvin Sampson broke. Yet there is hope for the Hoosiers here as they come into this game having snapped their 11-game losing streak.

Who did the Hoosiers beat to finish the regular season on a high note? Why, they beat Northwestern as five-point home ‘dogs 88-80 in overtime on March 6. Indiana played strong defense to win this game, winning the rebound game 41-31. Christian Watford cleaned the glass to the tune of 10 boards and 14 points. Jordan Hulls paced IU with 24 points, two rebounds and four helpers. John Shurna and Michael Thompson did their best to help the Wildcats keep in the game by scoring a combined 56 points. But those two couldn’t overcome the rest of their team shooting 28 percent from the field.

Northwestern hasn’t been favored too often this season, but have made the most of the chances. The Wildcats are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS as faves. The ‘over’ has been a handsome wager in that stretch by cashing in six of the eight contests that had a total posted. Plus, the ‘over’ has hit in eight straight games.

Indiana has seen its totals go 3-3-1 in its last seven tilts. But the ‘under’ has gone 11-8-1 over its last 29 games.

The winner of this contest makes it to the quarterfinals to face Purdue. The Hoosiers lost by three on Feb. 4 to Purdue in Bloomington, but has covered the spread in both games against their intrastate rivals this season. Northwestern has to like its chances against the Boilermakers since they won the only head-to-head meeting 72-64 as a 7 ½-point home pup on Jan. 16 they had with the league’s second seed.

Minnesota vs. Penn State – 7:30 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network

LVSC opened Minnesota (18-12 SU, 14-14 ATS) up as a 6 ½-point favorite with a total of 126.

The Golden Gophers were a team with big expectations after making the NCAA Tournament last season. However, going 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS to close out the season practically guaranteed that the only way Tubby Smith’s team will get back into the big tourney is to cut down the nets in Indy.

Minnesota’s last two games are a perfect microcosm of its season. On March 2, the Gophers allowed Michigan to shoot 60 percent from the field in an 84-55 loss in Ann Arbor for a game that closed as a pick ‘em. In their very next game, Smith’s club rolled over Iowa as 14-point home faves 88-53. In that regular season finale, Minnesota shot 56 percent from the field and went 12-for-19 from downtown. And its defense was dominant in giving up just 18 rebounds, five of which came on the offensive glass.

As far as Penn State (11-19 SU, 14-13 ATS) is concerned, this year has been a major disappointment. They won the NIT last season and figured to maybe have a chance to win this time around. And for the most part, Ed DeChellis’ team has been in their games this season, losing 14 games by no more than 10 points.

So where do place the blame for a team that loses so many games by such a close margin? It comes down to execution.

The Nittany Lions’ 64-60 loss as 5 ½-point home underdogs to Purdue on March 6 is a great example. PSU worked its way to trailing 63-60 with 10 seconds left in the game, but a Chris Babb missed three-pointer and Tim Frazier turnover helped them taste defeat for the third time in four games.

As bad as things might seem for the downtrodden Penn State alumni, they have reason to be optimistic in this game. The Lions lost 75-70 in Minneapolis on Dec. 29 as 13-point road pups and lost as four-point home pups on Feb. 6 in State College on a buzzer-beater 66-64.

Gamblers have done quite well in backing PSU over its last nine games, going 3-6 SU and 7-2 ATS. The totals have gong 4-4-1 in that stretch as well.

Minnesota has enjoyed some success as a favorite this season by logging a 14-5 SU and 11-8 ATS record. The ‘over’ went 10-7 in those contests as well. As single-digit favorites, however, the Golden Gophers are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS with the ‘under’ going 4-2.

Michigan State waits for the winner of this contest and both teams have had chances to upset them during the year. The Gophers lost to MSU on Jan. 23 as 1 ½-point home faves 65-64, while the Nittany Lions fell short in their upset bid as 13-point road pups 67-65 on March 4. Regardless of the opponent, the ‘under’ appears to be the right move as it is a combined 4-0 for Minnesota and Penn State.

As far as backing one of these teams for the league title, don’t bother. Penn State is coming in at 200/1, while Minnesota is at a much more manageable 20/1.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-10-2010, 11:40 PM

ACC Tourney Primer

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:
Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Clemson

THE WAY WE SEE IT:
DUKE will be looking to advance to the title game for the 11th time in 14 years (6-3-1 ATS playing for the cheese) and defend their ACC crown (beat FSU last year). The good news for the Blue Devils, who added yet another ACC regular-season trophy to their mantelpiece, is that the top seed has appeared in the championship game in 14 of the last 19 years.

The bad news is regular season champs have walked away with the title only six times. However, the Blue Devils’ 6-0 ATS mark versus opponents off a double-digit win and their 6-2 ATS record versus conference foes off a SU win this season calls for a repeat performance and a probable No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.

MARYLAND has been a dominant 8-1 ATS as conference favorites this season and an equally impressive 7-1 ATS as pick or favorites of les than 5 points in this event. While the Terps have bullied sub .690 opposition with a 14-0 SU and 9-1 ATS mark this season, keep in mind that they are just 9-7 SU and 8-8 ATS versus .690 or greater foes.

VIRGINIA TECH is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this tourney over the last two years but Seth Greenberg’s slumping Hokies are just 3-6 ATS as favorites of more than 5 points this season and 1-6 ATS as tourney favorites of more than 2 points. Keep a close eye on which role CLEMSON shows up in. The Tigers have been a solid 9-2 ATS as favorites 8 or more points this season but only 1-6 ATS when they arrive as dogs. Clemmie’s one-and-done showing in three of the last four years in this tourney is also cause for concern.

THE SLEEPER:
The North Carolina Tar Heels enter this event red-faced and that could spell danger for other teams. For openers, our database informs us that defending national champions in conference tourneys are: 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS against opponents off BB wins, 14-6 SU and ATS versus .633 or greater opposition and 11-3 SU and ATS versus No. 1, 2 or 3 seeds. Whew! We’re not anxious to fade numbers like that, not with Roy Williams, who has NEVER been an underdog in a conference tournament game. You know what to do.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On North Carolina as a ‘dog
See ‘The Sleeper’ writeup above and play accordingly. Remember, not only is UNC down this season but so, too, is the rest of the conference.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-11-2010, 01:42 AM

A few games are missing..i'll add as the day goes on....This is most games before 7pm Eastern.......

Thursday, March 11Game Score Status Pick Amount

Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Boston College -5 300
Boston College - Under 123 300

Western Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Central Michigan +1.5 300
Central Michigan -

Georgetown - 12:00 PM ET Georgetown +5.5 300
Syracuse - Over 139.5 500

Texas Tech - 12:30 PM ET Texas Tech +17.5 300
Kansas - Under 148 500

South Carolina - 1:00 PM ET South Carolina +1.5 300
Alabama - Under 135 300

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Memphis -6 500 ( CUSA POD )
Memphis - Under 151.5 500

Miami-Florida - 2:25 PM ET Miami-Florida +3.5 300
Wake Forest - Over 135 300

Eastern Michigan - 2:25 PM ET Eastern Michigan +7 300
Akron - Over 126 300

Iowa - 2:30 PM ET Michigan -8 300
Michigan - Under 116 300

Marquette - 2:30 PM ET Marquette +4.5 500 ( BIG EAST POD )
Villanova - Over 142.5 500 ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )

Boise St. - 3:00 PM ET Utah St. -11 300
Utah St. - Under 134 300

UCLA - 3:10 PM ET UCLA -1 300
Arizona - Over 136.5 300

Louisiana State - 3:15 PM ET Tennessee -11.5 400
Tennessee - Under 125.5 400

Alabama A&M - 3:30 PM ET Alabama St. -5.5 400
Alabama St. - Over 133.5 400

Indiana - 4:55 PM ET Northwestern -8 300
Northwestern -

Colorado St. - 5:30 PM ET Colorado St. +10 500
San Diego St. -

Fresno St. - 5:30 PM ET Fresno St. +4.5 500 ( WAC DOG )
Louisiana Tech - Over 131.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-11-2010, 01:51 AM

Top Four NCAA Seeds Set in Stone

One of the most anticipated televised programs for college basketball fans is this Sunday’s Selection Show on CBS. This is where the entire field of 65 teams is announced and college basketball teams anxiously await to find who, where and if they are part of the illustrious field. In most years, the top seeds are in question, pending the outcomes of conference tournaments. Most of the time a couple of the top teams are considered safe during Championship Week, however anywhere from four to eight teams come down the stretch with at least an outside chance to snag a coveted No.1 seed.

Until this year.

All season we have listened to the offerings of ESPN’s Jay Bilas telling us there are no great teams, which is partially correct, but sometimes true greatness isn’t measured until we’ve had time to reflect.

For the last couple of weeks, we have also been told that this year’s NCAA tournament could be “one of the wackiest ever” (from Dick Vitale) and as many as eight to 12 teams are capable of putting together a six game winning streak and be crowned champions.

Unless a catastrophic injury occurs, like what happened to Purdue, the four number one seeds are already locked. Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Duke will be at the top of each of the four regions, thus saving you from having to watch the first five minutes of the Selection Show should you so choose.

You can put in the book, even if all your teams were to lose their first game of the conference tournament, they would all still emerge as No.1’s.
What makes me so sure, all you have to do is look up the odds to win the national championship at Sportsbook.com. This is how it currently reads.

Kansas +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
Kentucky +300
Syracuse +300
Duke +700

They are the top four teams in every legitimate ranking service and the next group down is for the near-sighted.

Until last week, Kansas State still had a argument, sort of an under the radar choice, but losing to the Jayhawks in Lawrence and carrying that baggage around to falter against Iowa State at home a few days later, takes them out of contention.

Purdue had a very legit chance to crack this cluster, however the unfortunate loss of Robbie Hummel still leaves the Boilermakers high in the polls, but not to those placing futures wagers. Purdue is down to +3500 to be crowned champions, placing them below Wisconsin (+2500), but above Tennessee (+5000).

I asked COO Ken White of Las Vegas Sports Consultants what he would speculate Purdue would have been with healthy Hummel and he said “Purdue opened (the season) at 12-1 and if Hummel had not been injured, the Boilermakers would likely have been 7 to 1 or 8 to 1”.

West Virginia and Ohio State are among the favorites to win the Big East and Big Ten conference tournaments, however even if they did come away as titlist’s, the Mountaineers have six losses and until knocking off Villanova last week, there most impressive road was against Seton Hall (?). The Buckeyes have suffered seven defeats and the loss at North Carolina back in November doesn’t help the resume now and they were also beaten by West Virginia. Both teams are +1200 to win it all.

A case could be made for New Mexico, if they were 31-0 instead of 28-3. Much like a non-BCS conferences in football, the Lobos spectacular surprise season is outstanding, just not good enough to be top seed unless they were unscathed. Interestingly, New Mexico is +4500 to be national champions.

In the end, if there are truly no great teams, than what is the rest of the field? Is this the year a Villanova (’85) or N.C. State (’74) from yesteryear comes out of nowhere to pull a Buster Douglas and shock the world? We are about to find out, backed with the knowledge whom the top four seeds already are.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-11-2010, 01:53 AM

Need to Know Conference Tourney Betting Info

Conference USA Preview – March 10-13

It’s a brave new world in C-USA as they prepare for their 15th postseason tourney. UTEP is the regular season champion and will look to unseat Memphis, who has won the last four tournaments. In fact, if anyone other than the Tigers’ wins, it would be just the second different team to win, with all other previous champions in other leagues. UTEP is the favorite, as they are suffered just one conference loss all year and have first Top 25 ranking since 1992. The Miners are also 9-3 and 8-4 ATS away from El Paso.

UAB and Memphis are legitimate threats, the Blazers 11-4 SU away from home and the Tigers have pedigree and experience, plus coach Josh Pastner will talk up tradition. Marshall has the size (6’11 Lee Whiteside) and three-point shooting ability to be dangerous, having won eight of last nine and are 9-3 ATS as visitors. The venue change should benefit Tulsa, who will be playing before home town fans. Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh are dynamic duo. Of the teams below the top five, only Southern Miss looks capable. The Golden Eagles are 12-3 ATS away and 10-3 ATS as underdogs, however have only three wins.

Quarterfinals underdogs are 9-3 ATS, the last three years.

Prediction: UTEP vs Memphis final

Championship -11:30ET, CBS

Pacific 10 Preview - March 10-13

This conference has enjoyed all the appeal of a republican’s view of President Obama’s health care plan. The league was supposed to be down and didn’t even meet those substandard expectations this season. California has the best overall talent and is the top seed and has never won this event, finishing second in 2006. USC will be on the sidelines with suspension, meaning the 8 vs. 9 winner draws the Bears. Washington was expected to compete for title, but proved to be too young and senior Quincy Pondexter did not enjoy stellar senior season. The Huskies were dogs on the road with 4-7 SU and ATS mark.

Arizona State finished second in the league, thanks to great coaching by Herb Sendek, with limited ability and could make title game on smarts and guile, something lacking in this conference. Honestly, it’s hard to make a case for any other teams and the crowds are usually sparse at the Staples Center when the Pac-10 has four or five good teams, which means this could resemble a New Jersey Nets home game. Best advice here is play underdogs, as many of the teams as evenly matched (stink).

Favorites of three to six points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
Prediction: California and Washington final

Championship -6:00ET, CBS

Big 12 Preview - March 10-13

The 2010 tournament returns to original location, Kansas City, with a stacked field. Coach Bill Self’s club is the betting choice and they have been a consistent winner all season. This is not a great Kansas team (the one that won the title two years ago was better with more mature players), however that might be good enough in 2010. The scariest aspect of backing the Jayhawks is they have continually not buried teams. The 9-2 SU road record is impressive, however winning by 9.9 points per game is not.

Who can knock off Kansas? Baylor has quickness and strong front court, Missouri can score in bunches with pressing defense and Texas A&M has G Donald Sloan and adequate players in the paint. Oklahoma State has picked off the Jayhawks and has G James Anderson and other Cowboys’ sharp-shooters whom are treacherous. Texas has suffered too many injuries and still lacks guards to matter much. This leaves Kansas State, who has all the attributes to take down the Jayhawks, including great guard play. This should be fabulous tournament with several close games, lending value to underdogs, who could be better than average wagers.

Underdogs of six points or more are 37-21 ATS since 2000.

Prediction: Kansas vs. Baylor in final

Championship -6:00ET, ESPN

MAC Preview – Mar. 7, 10-13

Kent State has won this tournament four times since 2001 and will among the favorites again. The Golden Flashes have the mental makeup to win tight tilts and have blown out their fair share of MAC teams and are 5-1 SU and ATS as road favorites. The main competition figures to be division partner Akron, who is the defending champion. The Zips have plenty of zip and are 10-2 and 6-4 ATS off a spread loss. The West Division is strictly generic by comparison, however at least Central Michigan drew the higher seed as champ.

The first four games were played at higher seeded home sites this past Sunday and those winners will have the benefit of momentum, rest and preparation taking on teams at neutral site of Cleveland. Ohio U. and Buffalo can make noise being the top two scoring teams and Ball State is the best defensive team, holding opponents to 40 percent shooting. Nonetheless, Kent State and Akron have been so dominant this season, it’s difficult to look anywhere else for championship matchup.

The title tilt favorite is 9-3 SU and ATS and the SU winner is 12-0 ATS.

Prediction: Kent State vs. Akron in final

Championship -6:00ET, ESPN2

Mountain West Preview - March 10-13

The last few Mountain West tournaments have been little lackluster, however this 2010 version is setting up to be very competitive, as long as the chalk wins. New Mexico and BYU are the class the conference, both being ranked natioanlly the last seven weeks of the season. The Lobos are 11-2 and 7-4-1 ATS on the road and the Cougars are 13-3 and 11-5 ATS in same situation, winning by over 12 points per game. Just be careful with these two teams in the quarter-finals, as MWC favorites of nine or more an ordinary 8-7 ATS since 2002.

UNLV is again the host, which has been tremendous edge, emerging victorious three times and finishing second two other times on their home floor in seven years. San Diego State is also a threat because of their tenacious defense, allowing the fewest points in the conference. Difficult to imagine the Aztecs advancing far if they get in tight game, being last in the league in free throw shooting at just over 60 percent.

Favorites have done well in recent MWC tourneys, going 7-1 SU and ATS over the last three years in the semi-finals and title games.

Prediction: New Mexico and Las Vegas in final

Championship -7:00ET, Versus

Big East Preview - March 9-13

For the second straight season, all 16 members of the Big East will participate in this gala event. The first day will have the bottom eight teams in action and at least from talent perspective, Connecticut and Seton Hall are the best, but both have to play at faster pace to succeed. The four winners of the opening day move on to face seeds 5 thru 8 and this grouping is packing with some real quality. Though they might not be the most talented, Marquette and Notre Dame are playing the best, with the Golden Eagles 9-2 and 8-3 ATS and the Fighting Irish on 7-2 ATS run out.

In the quarterfinals, the heavyweights arrive and though it seems unlikely any in this group would lose, at least one underdog has won outright on average over the last dozen years. Let’s move Syracuse and Pittsburgh to semis, based on ability and Pitt’s exceptional record in March in New York. Looking for an upset, think Villanova, who is 2-3 in last five outings and 3-7 ATS since February.

This tournament has often seen one team make improbable run the last several years and only once has a team won back to back since 2000, which should eliminate Louisville. Favorites of seven or less are 9-2 SU and ATS the first two days.

Prediction: Syracuse and Pittsburgh in final

Championship -9:00ET, ESPN

Big West Preview – March 10-13

Many may not know or remember the Big West has held this annual event every year since 1976. One dependable aspect of this conference is 11 of the last 13 years, the champion or co-champion of the regular season has appeared in the championship game. That should mean UC-Santa Barbara or Pacific or both have a great chance to wind up playing for NCAA automatic bid. Cal-State Fullerton is the league’s top scoring team and is 8-3 ATS as a visitor, however lost all four games to the top two teams.

UC-Davis is up and down and their best trait is being 11-5 ATS against Big West foes. This competition will again be held in Anaheim. The previous five years, it’s been like nearby Disneyland for total players. Those on the UNDER are 23-9, 73.5 percent, with all the games coming in a full four points below the oddsmakers average total in games played.
This Big West bash is known for being competitive, as only 10 matchups have registered above 7.5-point spread in recent years and though the underdog is laughable 1-9, they are potent 8-2 ATS.

Prediction: UCSB and Pacific in final

Championship - 8:00ET, ESPN2

WAC Preview – March 11-13

Eight teams will be in Reno, NV for the WAC conference tournament. The University of Nevada finished tied for second in the league and will have the advantage of playing on their home floor. Utah State is the definite favorite as the league champion and was 11-5 ATS in conference action. Interestingly, all the other squads facing off in upstate Nevada are right around or above .500 against the spread, with the exception of the Wolf Pack who are 6-10 ATS. This could make underdogs a play with history to back it up.

Over the previous four tourneys, dogs have had plenty of bite with a 20-9 ATS record and the OVER has also been a strong play at 21-10. Beyond the top four seeds, Fresno State has the most talent, however difficult to throw much support their way since they are 3-12 SU as visitors. No. 4 Louisiana Tech will have chance to take down Utah State in semis should they get that far, having earned a split and covering both meetings. Nevada will have the home court edge over New Mexico State and last week won and covered over the Aggies. Nevada finished second to Utah State in last year’s tournament at the same Lawler Events Center and this could be the third meeting in five years with these same two schools.

Prediction: Nevada and Utah State in final

Championship -10:00ET, ESPN2

SEC Preview – March 11-14

This year’s SEC Tournament is like many from the past, with Kentucky a decided favorite as the top seed. Mississippi State also nabs a co-No.1 placement having won the SEC West. This year’s competition will still have a vast number of Wildcats fans in attendance, but it will also have a flavor of those from the Volunteer State, being played at the Sommet Center in Nashville, where Vanderbilt and Tennessee will be well represented.

The lesser teams in the conference are all obviously flawed, yet other than LSU, all have at least one positive attribute that makes them a dangerous dog. South Carolina has Devan Downey, Georgia is athletic (1-12 away from home however), Auburn and Arkansas are capable of scoring outbursts and Alabama is second in the conference in fewest points allowed. If any of these teams make the quarterfinals, consider them since underdogs are 8-3 ATS this round.

This still figures to be the Kentucky Invitational and teams in the title game are 8-1 UNDER with dog 5-3-1 ATS.

Prediction: Kentucky and Vanderbilt in final

Championship -1:00ET, ABC

Atlantic 10 Preview – March 9, 12-14

The A-10 tourney is known for mini-runs as only three teams (’97 St. Joseph’s, ’99 Rhode Island and ’03 Dayton) have not won consecutive championships or two of three since 1991. This year’s tournament could be one of the most exciting ever, with a number of strong teams at the top and the second level clubs capable of stringing together a number of wins. All season, two-time defending A-10 postseason champ Temple, Xavier and Richmond have shown to be the class of the conference. St. Louis, Charlotte and Rhode Island have all proven they can win a segment of games, with the Rams ability to score (2nd in the A-10) and winning road record (9-6) and the Billikens second in points allowed in the league.

The best teams will of course be favored and it could be profitable to watch them in the right situation, as double digit favorites are 9-0 and 7-2 ATS. The first round is always at the home higher seed and the home-standing favorite of seven or less points is 18-4 and 17-5 ATS. Once they get to Atlantic City, all bets are off (pun intended) and Temple and Richmond rematch from Feb. 6 (Spiders won 71-54) seems like a possibility.

Prediction: Temple and Richmond in final

Championship -1:00ET, CBS

ACC Preview – March 11-14

The Atlantic Coast Conference was created in 1953 and starting one year later, the ACC held a men’s postseason tournament, making it the one all others yearn to have for prestige and history. It has not been a banner year for the ACC, with a number of good squads, with just two standing above the fray. Duke and Maryland have been the finest, yet no team among the 12 members had a winning road record in conference. The Terps are 8-5 and 8-4 ATS on the road overall and the Blue Devils are 9-5 and 7-6-1 ATS in same spot.

The most intriguing team with the most to gain is North Carolina, who was playing better of late (until Duke massacre) and has to win out in order to defend their NCAA title. The other bottom teams in the standings seem to have little chance, as they have been in losing mode, with the exception of Boston College who has won primarily at home. Virginia Tech has bunched together wins to be considered for semi-finals and Florida State is a threat the way they play defense, if they can make shots.

Review this; ACC underdogs boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS since 2003.

Prediction: Duke and Virginia Tech in final

Championship -1:00ET, ESPN

Big Ten Preview – March 11-14

It really has been a maniacal year in the Big Ten. Teams lost when they had every reason to win on their home court and underdogs off deflating losses bounced back immediately to win as head-scratchers. In the end, one team stood above the rest playing their best basketball of the season, Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS) and have a versatile starting lineup led by Evan Turner that can thwart the opposition in various ways. Michigan State, despite its fine record, has disappointed, not being as strong as most thought. Purdue could very likely have won the Big Ten outright, however the loss of Robbie Hummel takes them from top five in the country to Top 20-30 range.

Two teams that are under the radar in this part of the world are Wisconsin and Illinois. The Badgers have their big man back in Jon Leuer and could put together a weekend streak and steal this deal. Illinois is physically capable with Demetri McCamey leading the Fighting Illini; it’s just a matter of the rest of the team being mentally strong to compete day after day. Pending seeds, nobody will want to see Penn State, who is 3-15 in league play, but 9-2 ATS on the road, losing by less than four points a game.

These games tend to wrestling matches and the UNDER has hit 60 percent the last three years.

Prediction: Ohio State vs. Michigan State in final

Championship -3:30ET, CBS

**myrjimmy3** · 03-11-2010, 09:47 AM

gl bum

**StarDust Bum** · 03-11-2010, 03:35 PM

The rest of the early afternoon games:

Nebraska - 3:00 PM ET Texas A&M -8 500 ( BIG 12 POD )
Texas A&M - Under 123 500

Air Force - 3:00 PM ET New Mexico -17.5 300
New Mexico - Over 120 400

Southern Mississippi - 3:30 PM ET Southern Mississippi +6 300
UAB - Under 116.5 300

Oregon - 5:30 PM ET California -10.5 500 ( PAC 10 POD )
California - Over 141 500

Maryland - E. Shore - 6:00 PM ET Maryland - E. Shore +7.5 500
South Carolina State -

**StarDust Bum** · 03-11-2010, 06:21 PM

Your Evening games:

North Carolina - 7:00 PM ET North Carolina +3.5 300
Georgia Tech -

Ohio - 7:00 PM ET Ohio +5 400
Kent St. - Under 138.5 400

Texas A&M CC - 7:00 PM ET Texas A&M CC +2 500 ( POD )
Stephen F. Austin - Over 120 500

Notre Dame - 7:00 PM ET Notre Dame +2 500 ( BIG EAST DOGGIE )

Pittsburgh - Under 126 500

Oklahoma St. - 7:00 PM ET Kansas St. -5 300
Kansas St. - Under 144.5 300

Auburn - 7:30 PM ET Auburn +5.5 400
Florida - Over 143.5 400

Penn St. - 7:30 PM ET Penn St. +6 400
Minnesota - Over 127 400

Tulsa - 7:30 PM ET Marshall +1.5 400
Marshall - Over 138 400

Hampton - 8:00 PM ET Norfolk State +5 300
Norfolk State -

Stanford - 9:00 PM ET Arizona St. -7.5 300
Arizona St. - Under 125 500

Texas Christian - 9:00 PM ET Brigham Young -16 300
Brigham Young - Under 144.5 300

Idaho - 9:00 PM ET Idaho +8.5 500 ( BIG 12 DOG )

Nevada - Over 143.5 500

Texas Southern - 9:00 PM ET Texas Southern -3 400
Prairie View A&M -

Cincinnati - 9:00 PM ET West Virginia -9 300
West Virginia - Over 128.5 300

Cal Poly SLO - 9:00 PM ET Long Beach St. -7 300
Long Beach St. -

N.C. State - 9:30 PM ET N.C. State +7 400
Clemson - Over 131 400

Buffalo - 9:30 PM ET Miami (OH) +1.5 200
Miami (OH) - Over 129 400

Texas - 9:30 PM ET Baylor +1 500 ( BIG 12 DOG )

Baylor - Under 145.5 500

Southeastern Louisiana - 9:30 PM ET Sam Houston St. -6 300
Sam Houston St. -

Georgia - 9:45 PM ET Arkansas -1.5 400
Arkansas - Under 143.5 400

Central Florida - 10:00 PM ET Central Florida +9.5 200
Texas-El Paso - Over 133 400

Cal St. Fullerton - 11:25 PM ET UC Davis +3 500
UC Davis - Under 143.5 500 ( BIG WEST TOTAL )

San Jose St. - 11:30 PM ET New Mexico St. -5 500 ( WAC BLOWOUT )

New Mexico St. - Over 157.5 500

Utah - 11:30 PM ET Utah +12.5 400
UNLV - Over 131.5 400

Oregon St. - 11:40 PM ET Oregon St. +9 500 ( PAC 10 DOG )

Washington - Over 133.5 500 ( TOTAL OF THE NIGHT )

**StarDust Bum** · 03-11-2010, 06:55 PM

Big XII Quarterfinals

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State – 7:00 p.m. EST, Big XII Network

LVSC opened the Wildcats as 7 ½-point favorites with a total of 147.

It certainly appears that Oklahoma State (23-9 SU, 15-9-1 ATS) is ready to give a serious run in the Big XII tourney after dropping the Sooners as a 7 ½-point favorite 81-67 on Wednesday night. The Cowboys were able to win the rebounding battle (30-22) and were able to take the ball away from Oklahoma 11 times in order to ensure the win. Keiton Page was the man of the match with 24 points, three assists and four steals. It’s the sixth time OSU has covered the number in its last eight contests.

Kansas State (24-6 SU, 16-8-1 ATS) undoubtedly needed the extra day off after closing out the regular season with two straight defeats. Frank Martin’s Wildcats were listed as 15-point home favorites in their 85-82 loss to Iowa State last Saturday. The most glaring problem for K-State was not only the fact that they hit 34 percent of its shots from the field, it is that they only have 12 offensive boards; they average 15 rebounds off of the offensive glass. Jacob Pullen did his part for the Wildcats by putting up 27 points with four rebounds.

The Wildcats don’t exactly have any guarantees about making it to the league semis since the lost their only meeting with Oklahoma State as 9 ½-point home faves on Jan. 23. The ‘Pokes were able to outshoot Kansas State in all aspects in the field, three-point s and on the free throw line for a 73-69 victory.

K-State has been a solid team to back as a favorite by going 17-3 SU and 15-4-1 ATS this season. The 'over' is just 9-8 in those games as well. As a single-digit "chalk," they are 12-2 SU and 10-3-1 ATS for the 2009-10 campaign, with the 'over' holding a slight 7-5 edge.

The Cowboys haven't been all that great to play on as underdogs this year, evidenced by a 3-8 SU and ATS record. The 'under' has gone 5-4 in that stretch as well.

That win wasn’t a fluke for OSU as they’re 8-2 SU in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, but just 5-5 ATS. Although, we should pay attention to the fact that the Cowboys are on a 5-1 ATS run against K-State. The ‘under’ is 4-2 during that recent stretch.

Texas vs. Baylor – 9:30 p.m. EST, ESPN2

LVSC has this matchup as too close to call by opening it up as a pick 'em with a total of 148.

We’re not sure what happened to Texas (24-8 SU, 11-17 ATS) this year after being No. 1 in the nation, but they look like they might be back on track. The Longhorns upended a game Iowa State team as nine-point faves 82-75 on Wednesday night. Damion James helped push the ‘Horns into the next round by posted 28 points and 16 rebounds. In fact, Texas held a 44-28 rebound advantage in the game. This was the Orange Bloods’ fifth win in their last eight games, but bettors know that they have covered the spread in two of those eight contests.

Baylor (24-6 SU, 15-8 ATS) finished last season in ninth place, but wound up making it to the conference title game. This time around the Bears enter their first game of the tourney having won four straight matches and seven of their last eight. Gamblers have cashed in three straight contests. Not bad for a team that was picked to finish 10th before the season started.

The Bears enter this game with plenty of swagger as they swept the season series with Texas. Baylor dropped the ‘Horns with a thud as a three-point home favorite to close out the regular season 92-77 on March 6. LaceDarius Dunn punished Texas with 30 points and six boards. Quincy Acy also did his part by registering 24 points against the Longhorns.

The total in both showdowns this season went well ‘over’ the closing numbers. In fact, the ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the last head-to-head meetings. Now we could say that Texas has a chance to bounce back here since they have won seven of those 10 meetings, but the Bears are 6-4 ATS and have won the last three tilts with UT.

The Longhorns have been good on the road or at neutral sites this year with a 9-6 SU mark. Gamblers, on the other hand, know that they are just 4-11 ATS. And the 'over' has gone 10-4 in those contests as well.

Baylor has posted a 9-5 SU and ATS record in both true road and neutral contests this season. The 'over' has gone 9-5 for the Bears and bettors.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-11-2010, 06:58 PM

Bulls at Magic – The Bulls are 0-5 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since January 03, 2009 when they allowed at least ten points more than their season-to-date average for two straight games. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since December 31, 2009 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Magic are 6-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since March 05, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Magic are 0-5 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since November 06, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

Trailblazers at Warriors – The Trailblazers are 0-7 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since February 12, 2009 on the road after a home win in which their DPS was negative. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since April 15, 2005 at home versus the Trailblazers. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since March 16, 2006 with two or more days of rest after a game on the road in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Warriors are 0-6 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since February 26, 1997 after a road loss in which they shot at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.

Hawks at Wizards - The Hawks are 11-0-1 ATS (7.0 ppg) since February 25, 2009 when facing a team they beat in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game next next. The Hawks are 0-7 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since January 18, 2008 on the road after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS (4.8 ppg) since April 11, 2001 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Wizards are 0-12-1 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since February 07, 2001 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a game at home after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-11-2010, 07:00 PM

Thursday Tips

The Thursday NBA card is normally a light one, but there are three games for bettors to wager on as opposed to the usual two. The Hawks and Wizards will make up a postponed game from February 6 due to inclement weather in the D.C. area. We'll lead things off with the pair of TNT contests, starting in central Florida between the red-hot Magic and stumbling Bulls.

Bulls (31-32 SU, 30-31-2 ATS) at Magic (45-20 SU, 34-30-1 ATS)

Chicago and Orlando hook up for the final time in the regular season with the season series tied at a game apiece. These two clubs are going in different directions as the Magic are riding a six-game winning streak while the Bulls have dropped five in a row.

Stan Van Gundy's squad is coming off a 113-87 blasting of the Clippers on Tuesday, the fourth cover in the last five opportunities as a double-digit favorite. The Magic is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS the last eight at home, while holding each of their last four opponents to 94 points or less.

Chicago's defense is nowhere to be found, allowing 100 points or more in eight straight games including the 132-spot to Utah on Tuesday. The 'over' has been a profitable play for the Bulls recently, hitting in five of the last seven games. Since a 6-1 SU/ATS run to start the second half of the season, Vinny Del Negro's team is 0-5 SU/ATS, with each loss coming by nine points or more.

The two teams split a pair of meetings at the United Center as the Bulls knocked off the Magic, 101-93 on January 2 as 3 ½-point home 'dogs. Orlando shot just 36% from the floor, but managed to knock down 14 three-pointers in the loss. The Magic got revenge in an easy 107-87 thrashing of the Bulls in the final game prior to the All-Star Break. Derrick Rose went down with a bruised hip that kept the reigning Rookie of the Year out the rest of the contest. The game was pretty much decided after Orlando put 41 points on the scoreboard in the first quarter, cashing comfortably as 4 ½-point road 'chalk.'

Blazers (38-28 SU, 35-30-1 ATS) at Warriors (17-46 SU, 35-27-1 ATS)

Portland enters its personal house of horrors when the Blazers invade Oracle Arena for the late tip against Golden State. Nate McMillan's club is 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS the last nine visits to the Bay Area dating back to April 2005. The Warriors return home from a winless five-game road trip, but Golden State managed a 3-2 ATS mark, including Monday's 135-131 shootout loss at New Orleans as six-point 'dogs.

The Blazers failed to cover in an 88-81 victory over the Kings on Tuesday as 8 ½-point home favorites, the fourth win in five games for Portland. The road 'chalk' role has been a profitable wager for the Blazers, cashing 10 of 13 times in this role. Portland has covered five straight when laying points away from the Rose Garden, while compiling a 10-3 ATS mark the last 13 on the road overall.

The Warriors are still short-handed with leading scorer Monta Ellis missing the last five games with back spasms and center Andris Biedrins likely out for the rest of the season with an abdominal tear. Playing without Ellis hasn't affected Warriors' backers in a negative way, as Golden State is 9-2 ATS this season when Ellis sits out. Ellis and his 25 ppg hopes to return to the court on Thursday. Golden State has struggled at Oracle recently, going 4-7 SU/ATS, while dropping six of eight games as home 'dogs.

The home team has split each meeting this season with the Warriors running out the Blazers, 108-94 at Oracle on November 20. Golden State allowed 37 first-quarter points, but held Portland to 57 points in the final three quarters combined to cash as eight-point home 'dogs. Portland exacted revenge at the Rose Garden on January 2 with a 105-89 blowout of Golden State, cruising to a cover as 3 ½-point favorites. In a similar scenario to the first matchup, the Warriors this time were scorching the nets with a 41-point first quarter. Portland's defense tightened up by limiting Golden State to 48 points in the last three periods.

Hawks (40-23 SU, 36-27 ATS) at Wizards (21-40 SU, 25-34-2 ATS)

The card expands by one game with the Wizards beginning a stretch of three games in three days when they host the Hawks at the Verizon Center. Atlanta will try to bounce back after a one-point loss in the final seconds at New York on Monday. Since losing Josh Howard for the season with a torn ACL on February 22, the Wizards are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS.

The Hawks are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS off consecutive losses this season, but do own a 2-1 SU/ATS mark on the road in this situation. Atlanta is just 4-7 SU/ATS since January 27 on the road, while averaging 96 ppg in the last two road defeats at Miami and New York.

The Wizards have turned into a solid 'under' play over the last eight games, cashing seven times, while not breaking the 90-point mark in any of the previous five contests. Washington held Houston to 38% shooting from the floor on Tuesday, but the Wizards tallied just 60 points through the first three quarters in a 96-88 loss to the Rockets as four-point home 'dogs.

Mike Woodson's team has claimed each of the last seven meetings, including the first two this season at Philips Arena. The Hawks downed the Wizards in late October, 100-89 as six-point 'chalk,' while the game easily finished 'under' the total of 202 ½. Atlanta won in similar fashion on January 13 by knocking off Washington, 94-82. The favorite/under combination cashed again when the Hawks covered as 11-point favorites and finished 'under' the total of 203 ½.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-11-2010, 09:25 PM

Results up to 7pm Eastern :

03/11/10 25-14-1 64.10% +3880 Detail

Sport Game Score Pick Amount Result Units

NCAAB Virginia 68 Boston College -5 300 LOSS -330
Boston College 62 Under 123 300 LOSS -330

NCAAB Miami-Florida 83 Miami-Florida +3.5 300 WON +300
Wake Forest 62 Over 135 300 WON +300

NCAAB Western Michigan 69 Central Michigan +1.5 300 LOSS -330
Central Michigan 60

NCAAB Eastern Michigan 89 Eastern Michigan +7 300 LOSS -330
Akron 97 Over 126 300 WON +300

NCAAB South Carolina 63 South Carolina +1.5 300 LOSS -330
Alabama 68 Under 135 300 WON +300

NCAAB Louisiana State 49 Tennessee -11.5 400 LOSS -440
Tennessee 59 Under 125.5 400 WON +400

NCAAB Iowa 52 Michigan -8 300 LOSS -330
Michigan 59 Under 116 300 WON +300

NCAAB Indiana 58 Northwestern -8 300 WON +300
Northwestern 73

NCAAB UCLA 75 UCLA -1 300 WON +300
Arizona 69 Over 136.5 300 WON +300

NCAAB Colorado St. 71 Colorado St. +10 500 WON +500
San Diego St. 72

NCAAB Boise St. 60 Utah St. -11 300 WON +300
Utah St. 84 Under 134 300 LOSS -330

NCAAB Fresno St. 66 Fresno St. +4.5 500 LOSS -550
Louisiana Tech 74 Over 131.5 500 WON +500

NCAAB Alabama A&M 45 Alabama St. -5.5 400 WON +400
Alabama St. 56 Over 133.5 400 LOSS -440

NCAAB Georgetown 91 Georgetown +5.5 300 WON +300
Syracuse 84 Over 139.5 500 WON +500

NCAAB Texas Tech 68 Texas Tech +17.5 300 WON +300
Kansas 80 Under 148 500 PUSH 0

NCAAB Houston 66 Memphis -6 500 LOSS -550
Memphis 65 Under 151.5 500 WON +500

NCAAB Marquette 80 Marquette +4.5 500 WON +500
Villanova 76 Over 142.5 500 WON +500

NCAAB Nebraska 64 Texas A&M -8 500 LOSS -550
Texas A&M 70 Under 123 500 LOSS -550

NCAAB Southern Mississippi 58 Southern Mississippi +6 300 WON +300
UAB 44 Under 116.5 300 WON +300

NCAAB Maryland - E. Shore 53 Maryland - E. Shore +7.5 500 WON +500
South Carolina State 59

NCAAB Oregon 74 California -10.5 500 WON +500
California 90 Over 141 500 WON +500

NCAAB Air Force 69 New Mexico -17.5 300 LOSS -330
New Mexico 75 Over 120 400 WON +400

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