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**StarDust Bum** · 03-07-2010, 12:04 AM

Sunday's Slate

**Florida at Kentucky**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Kentucky (28-2 straight up, 16-12 against the spread) as a 12-point favorite. As of late Saturday, most books had UK as a 12-point 'chalk' with a total of 140.

--Kentucky bounced back from last Saturday’s loss at Tennessee to thump Georgia 80-68 Wednesday at Stegeman Coliseum. The Wildcats hooked up their backers as eight-point road favorites. John Wall was the catalyst with 24 points, six assists and three steals. Patrick Patterson added 17 points and 10 boards.

--Florida (20-10 SU, 13-12 ATS) has lost back-to-back games and is in danger of ending the regular season on a three-game losing slide. That scenario would most likely leave the Gators needing to win at least one game in the SEC Tournament. However, Billy Donovan’s squad can remove all doubt by winning outright Sunday at Rupp Arena.

--UF had the ball with a chance to win on the last possession of both aforementioned losses (at UGA and vs. Vandy) in the last week. Trailing 78-76 at Georgia last Saturday, Dan Werner passed on a clean look at a 15-foot jumper on the baseline with about 2-3 ticks remaining. Werner elected to pass the ball and a deflection sent the ball out of bounds with just 0.1 seconds left. In Tuesday’s 64-60 home loss to Vandy, Kenny Boynton had a clean look at a trey from the right wing that would’ve given the Gators the lead in the waning moments. The Gators went the last nine-plus minutes of the second half without making one bucket from the field.

--Florida owns a 5-4 spread record in nine games as an underdog. This is UF’s first double-digit ‘dog situation.

--John Calipari’s team is undefeated in 18 home games with an 8-8 spread ledger. The ‘Cats are 8-9 versus the number when listed as double-digit ‘chalk.’

--UF has an RPI of 52, while UK is No. 3 in the RPI.

--When these schools met at the O-Dome in Gainesville on Jan. 12, Kentucky collected an 89-77 win as a 3 ½-point road favorite. UK freshman guard Eric Bledsoe, who had Florida as his leader in the recruiting process before Calipari left Memphis for UK, torched the Gators for 25 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three steals. Wall added 19 points and six assists. In the losing effort, Erving Walker had a team-high 20 points.

--The ‘over’ is 14-13 for the ‘Cats, 9-6 in their home assignments. With that said, the ‘under’ is 5-2 in UK’s last seven games (regardless of the venue).

--The ‘under’ is 12-9 overall for the Gators, 4-4 in their eight true road games.

--CBS will provide television coverage at noon Eastern.

**Clemson at Wake Forest**

--LVSC opened Wake Forest (18-9 SU, 14-10 ATS) as a one-point favorite. As of late Saturday, most spots had the Demon Deacons favored by one with a total of 137.

--Clemson (21-8 SU, 14-12 ATS) is playing its best basketball of the season, winning five of its last six games. The Tigers come to Lawrence-Joel Coliseum in Winston Salem after pulling away from Ga. Tech for a 91-80 home win Tuesday as 6 ½-point home favorites. Trevor Booker enjoyed his Senior Night by erupting for 21 points, nine rebounds, five assists and three blocked shots.

--Unlike Clemson, Wake Forest is slumping at the wrong time. The Demon Deacons have lost four in a row, although it did take the cash in Wednesday’s 51-47 loss at FSU as 7 ½-point underdogs. Al-Farouq Aminu took a bagel in 28 minutes of play before fouling out. Also, L.D. Williams produced just four points and one board in 34 minutes.

--Dino Gaudio’s team is 12-2 SU and 6-5 ATS at home this year.

--Wake Forest has covered the number in eight consecutive head-to-head meetings. The Deacs stroked the Tigers 96-88 as 4 ½-point home favorites in last year’s regular-season finale.

--Clemson sophomore guard Tanner Smith is “questionable” with a sprained ankle. Smith averages 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game.

--The ‘under’ is on a 9-2 run in Wake’s last 11 games. The ‘under’ is 14-9 overall for the Deacs, but the ‘over’ is 6-5 in their home games.

--The ‘under’ is 15-9 overall for Clemson.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. Eastern on FSN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Saturday’s Biggest Bubble Winners:
1-Louisville (78-68 vs. Syracuse)
2-Notre Dame (63-60 at Marquette in overtime)
3-Ole Miss (68-66 at Arkansas)
4-Va. Tech (88-82 at Ga. Tech)
5-Memphis (75-53 vs. Tulsa)

--Saturday’s Biggest Bubble Losers:
1-UConn (75-68 at USF)
2-Ga. Tech (88-82 vs. Va. Tech)
3-Rhode Island (69-67 at UMass)
4-Mississippi St. (75-59 vs. Tennessee)
5-Dayton (71-66 vs. Saint Louis)

--South Carolina has really been limping down the stretch this year, but it went into Music City on Saturday and stunned Vanderbilt by a 77-73 count as a 10 ½-point road underdog. Devan Downey was the catalyst, raining deep 3’s at crunch time to propel his team into the winner’s circle with 27 points. Bettors backing the Gamecocks to win outright at the Las Vegas Hilton cashed monster plus-500 tickets (risk $100 to win $500). The costly loss might end the Commodores’ hopes of garnering a No. 3 seed unless they get to the SEC Tournament finals next week.

--With Alabama beating Auburn 73-61 as a 5 ½-point home favorite, the Tide earned the No. 4 seed in the SEC West for the league tourney in Nashville. The Tigers will now face Florida in a first-round game Thursday, with the winner advancing to face Mississippi St. in the quarterfinals on Friday.

--Don’t rule out West Virginia as a potential No. 1 seed yet. If the Mountaineers win the Big East tournament, their case for a top seed will be decent depending on what schools like Duke, Purdue and K-St. do in their respective conference tourneys.

--Winthrop garnered the second bid to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Big South Tournament by virtue of Saturday’s 64-53 win over Coastal Carolina as a 9 ½-point underdog. The Eagles hooked up money-line backers with a payout as generous as plus-425 at the LV Hilton (risk $100 to win $425).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-07-2010, 12:06 AM

Early Sunday Tips

The Sunday NBA card has six games on the slate and is highlighted by an NBA Finals rematch between the Magic and Lakers from Orlando. Most teams have 20 games or less in the regular season as we head down the stretch towards the playoffs.

Lakers (46-17 SU, 26-34-3 ATS) at Magic (43-20 SU, 33-29-1 ATS)

The Champs are riding only their third two-game losing streak of the season, going for the season sweep of the Magic. Orlando is on fire right now with wins in six of its last seven contests, including a ten-point victory at New Jersey on Friday.

The Lakers will try to avoid a winless trip through the Southeast Division following losses at Miami and Charlotte. The Heat outlasted L.A. on Thursday in overtime, 114-111, as the Lakers failed to cover as five-point 'chalk.' The Purple and Gold stubbed their toe the next night in Charlotte with a 98-83 loss to the Bobcats, the fourth straight non-road cover for the Lakers.

The reigning Eastern Conference champs are 17-5 SU and 13-9 ATS since a 98-92 loss at Staples Center on January 18. The Magic have protecting their kingdom with a 10-2 SU ledger at Amway Arena following a three-game skid in road losses to the Nuggets, Blazers, and Lakers. Stan Van Gundy's club has turned into an 'under' machine recently, cashing the 'under' in seven of the last eight games, including the 97-87 victory over the Nets.

The Lakers are 1-3 ATS this season after scoring 86 points or less, but have won three of those games straight-up. Phil Jackson's team has struggled ATS against above .500 teams on the road, failing to cover at Denver, Oklahoma City, Boston, Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, and Memphis (twice). The few covers the Lakers have on the road against this kind of competition came against the Mavs in early January, while cashing without Kobe Bryant at Portland and Utah prior to the All-Star Break.

Los Angeles managed a push in the six-point triumph over Orlando on MLK Night, as the Lakers needed a late rally to capture the win. L.A. used a 15-0 spurt to start the final quarter to pull away from an Orlando team that went on a 20-2 run in the third quarter. The Lakers covered all three road meetings in last summer's NBA Finals, while winning the last two games outright as underdogs.

Rockets (31-30 SU, 28-33 ATS) at Pistons (21-41 SU, 26-34-2 ATS)

Houston completes the second end of a back-to-back, heading to the Palace of Auburn Hills to take on Detroit. The Pistons picked up a wire-to-wire cover as 12-point 'dogs at Cleveland on Friday, but Detroit suffered its sixth straight defeat.

John Kuester's team jumped out to a 21-point lead before a massive Cavs' rally and a 99-92 victory by Cleveland. The loss took a back seat to the condition of guard Rodney Stuckey, who left the game in the fourth quarter after collapsing on the bench. Stuckey was taken to a local hospital, but is back in Detroit and doing better. The former Eastern Washington guard will sit out against the Rockets, as the Pistons begin a three-game homestand.

Houston had dropped three of four away from the Toyota Center heading into Saturday's win at Minnesota. Playing with no rest has been a detriment for the Rockets, as Rick Adelman's squad is 1-8 ATS and 2-7 SU the last nine on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Detroit's numbers on rest as of late have dwarfed its record when playing with no rest. The Pistons are 6-2 ATS the last eight with at least one day of rest, but are 0-6-1 ATS the previous seven without rest.

The Rockets handled the Pistons in the first meeting back in Houston on December 15, as Houston easily covered as 5 ½-point favorites, 107-96. Houston shot 55% from the field, while winning without Trevor Ariza, who is listed as 'questionable' on Sunday with a hip injury.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- The Mavs are the hottest team in the league, but still have problems covering at home. Following Friday's non-cover against Sacramento, Dallas owns a 2-22 ATS mark the last 24 games as a home favorite. Only once in this 24-game stretch have the Mavs won a game by double-digits, which includes ATS losses to the Wolves (twice), Pacers, Warriors, and Kings. Dallas returns to the American Airlines Center on Wednesday for a four-game homestand which includes games against New Jersey, New York, and Chicago. Keep an eye on this moving forward, but the Mavs will still be a threat in the postseason.

-- The Bucks have covered ten straight games following Saturday's victory over the Cavs. Milwaukee continues a four-game stretch at the Bradley Center on Tuesday against Boston, owning an 9-2 ATS mark the last eleven at home. How much of a difference does one player make? Since Michael Redd's season-ending knee injury on January 10, the Bucks are 23-5 ATS, while forging above .500 in the Eastern Conference.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-07-2010, 12:07 AM

Inside the Paint - Sunday

Gamblers looking to chase or press their bets Sunday night have limited options, which include three games on the pro hoops hardwood. The Wizards and Celtics tip off the festivities at 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN, while Denver and Portland conclude the televised double-header at 10:35 p.m. EST. One other board game starting at 9:00 p.m. EST features Oklahoma City visiting Sacramento.
Let’s take a closer look!

Washington (21-38 SU, 23-33 ATS) at Boston (39-21 SU, 23-36 ATS)

The Wizards showed a little bit of fire after unloading half their roster at the trade deadlines. Flip Saunders and company went 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS with the new faces, which included impressive home wins over the Bulls and Nuggets. Unfortunately, Washington’s talent gap has started to show and it was evident in a home-and-home sweep to the Bucks (87-100, 74-102) this week.

Now the Wizards will try to get back on track Sunday against a Boston squad that is quietly coming together again. After going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in three straight games at home the previous week, the Celtics have won and covered three in a row. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com opened Boston as a healthy 13-point favorite against Washington.

Boston has gone 17-11 SU at TD Garden this season, but its 7-21 ATS ledger is the worst in the league. Washington brings a 9-19 SU and 11-14 ATS road record into Sunday’s battle.

As expected the Celtics are big favorites in this matchup against Washington. Including the two meetings this season at Verizon Center, Boston has won five straight (4-1 ATS) in the head-to-head series against the Wizards. The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 ‘over’ this stretch.

Washington’s attack has been held under 100 points in four of its last five, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1. Boston was on a 5-0 ‘over’ roll but its defense (83 PPG) stepped up in the last two wins and both games went ‘under.’ The total on tonight’s matchup is hovering between 193 and 194 points.

After this battle, Boston gets a nice test on Monday with a visit to Milwaukee. Washington returns home for a battle versus Houston.

Portland (37-27 SU, 35-27 ATS) at Denver (41-21 SU, 28-31 ATS)

Sunday’s finale from Denver could be a potential first round playoff battle, depending how each team finishes the last quarter. This will be the third meeting between the pair this season, and the first played in Colorado. The Nuggets captured a 97-94 decision at the Rose Garden on Oct. 29, but the Trail Blazers avenged that loss with a 107-96 victory on Christmas. The total went 1-1 in the first two encounters.

Portland shouldn’t have any issues with fatigue for this matchup, since its last matchup came on Wednesday when the club blasted Indiana 102-79 as a nine-point home favorite. Even though the victory was against the Pacers, it was still impressive considering the team just returned from a five-game road trip that saw the team go 4-1 both SU and ATS. The Blazers are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on three days of rest or more this season.

Including those recent four wins away from home, Nate McMillan’s squad has produced a solid 17-14 SU and league-best 20-10 ATS ledger on the road. Despite the quality record, wining at Denver has been a tough out for every team this year. The Nuggets have outscored opponents by an average of 10 PPG (112-102) at home this season, which has produced a 27-5 SU and 16-15 ATS record.

The Nuggets are coming off a wire-to-wire 122-114 home victory over the Pacers on Friday. Denver gave up a bit in the final 12 minutes (32-25), which helped Indiana backers cover the 11-point number. ‘Over’ bettors saw their tickets cash for the fourth straight home game for Denver, as the combined 236 easily eclipsed the closing number of 221.

Denver has been installed as a six-point ‘chalk’ for Sunday, while the total is sitting at 206.

Looking at the Nuggets’ upcoming slate, most would believe that the team would have a strong sense of urgency against Portland. After this battle, the team gets two days off before starting a four-game road trip that will be played over six days. None of the opponents seem scary (Wolves, Hornets, Grizzlies, Rockets) on paper, but the Nuggets’ road mark (14-16 SU, 12-16 ATS) is below average.

Portland has a welcoming schedule on the horizon too, with the next five battles against the Kings twice, Warriors, Raptors and Wizards.

Sunday Sandwich

Nestled between these televised games is another Western Conference showdown between Oklahoma City (37-24 SU, 36-25 ATS) and Sacramento (21-41 SU, 33-27 ATS) from ARCO Arena.

If the playoffs started today, Kevin Durant and the Thunder would earn the sixth seed in the Western Conference. Along with Durant’s talent, the main reasons for Oklahoma City’s success can be pointed to a solid road record (18-13 SU, 20-11 ATS) and their ability to beat up on sub .500 clubs.

Since the All-Star break, Oklahoma City has gone 7-3 SU and 4-6 ATS. Of those seven wins, the only eye-opening victories came against Dallas (99-86) and Toronto (119-99), but keep in mind Chris Bosh didn’t suit up for the Raptors. The other five wins were against hacks, including a home win versus Sacramento (113-107) this past Tuesday.

The Kings lost, but they did manage to cover as 10 ½-point favorites. Unless you follow the NBA nightly, you probably wouldn’t be aware that Sacramento is on a 5-0 ATS run (3-2 SU) and three of the covers came on the road.

ARCO is always a tough venue for opponents and Sacramento (15-14 SU, 15-13 ATS) has taken advantage of the atmosphere this season. Despite those numbers, Oklahoma City has been tabbed a 3 ½-point road favorite against the Kings.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-07-2010, 12:09 AM

Playoff Positioning

When analyzing the rest of the NBA schedule and the playoff bound teams we find some great statistical information for you to sink your teeth into. Who has the easiest remaining schedule and who should only improve their current seeding? Who is going to struggle down the stretch with a tough schedule as we head towards the postseason? Keep reading and we'll answer those difficult questions for you based on each team's schedule.

Two teams we won't talk about are the Lakers and Cavaliers since they have the two best records in the league and are destined to meet in the finals. Yes, some other teams might beg to disagree with that statement but there's no reason for me to think otherwise as they've easily been the two best teams in the league this season without question.

The way things are shaping up right now we could see a great playoff race in the East between the 2, 3 and 4 seeds along with the 5-8 seeds. The second seed in the East right now is the Orlando Magic with a 42-20 overall record. Third is Atlanta at 39-21 followed by Boston who is 38-21. The bottom half of the East (teams #5-#9) are all separated by just three games.

Shifting gears to the West here's how things are shaping up on the 'left coast.' The Lakers are set as the top seed but a great race is heating up for the #2 through #6 seeds. The Mavericks are currently sitting at the #2 seed but they better not get too comfortable as they lead the Nuggets by just a half game, the Jazz by a game and a half, Phoenix by three and Oklahoma City by four. San Antonio and Portland are five games back of Dallas, with Memphis on the outside looking in for the 9th spot in the West.

Easy

Orlando Magic: The Magic have 20 games remaining and only 9 of those twenty are against teams currently with better than .500 records. Of the nine games they play against winning teams, only four are away. They also get 11 of their remaining games at home where Stan Van Gundy’s team has posted a 24-6 SU record. The one minor negative for the Magic is that they play four sets of back-to-back games, yet they are 19-12 SU (17-14 ATS) when playing without rest the past two seasons.

Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks also have a VERY easy schedule remaining and could move up from the third overall position in the East to the second ahead of Orlando, should the Magic stumble. Atlanta has 21 games and only nine of those are versus teams with winning records. Five of those nine are at home where the Hawks are 24-7 SU on the year, 58-20 SU dating back to the start of last season. Atlanta also has the 6th best scoring differential in the league at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 8.6 points per game.

Miami Heat: The Heat are currently in the 8th and final playoff spot in the East but only 1.5 games separate them and the Raptors for the 5th seed. Looking over their shoulders, they have the Bobcats just 1.5 games behind them. But the Heat may have the easiest remaining schedule of all the teams in the NBA. Just eight of their final 21 games come against teams with winning records, plus five of those eight are at home. They benefit from playing the worst team in the league New Jersey twice and the second to last team in the league Minnesota once. They also get 22-38 Philly two times, 21-39 New York, 20-41 Indiana and 21-40 Detroit twice. In other words, 10 of their last 21 games come against teams that combine for a .285 percent winning margin this season.

Tough

San Antonio Spurs: The elderly Spurs have to play 24 games in 40 days and they will have to play without rest six different times. To make matters worse they have to play four games in a six-day span on three separate occasions. The older Spurs haven't done well when playing the second night of a back-to-back this year (4-6 SU ). Of their 24 remaining games, 14 are on the road and 10 of those games are against playoff-bound teams. The Spurs are lucky they have a four-game lead over the Grizzlies, who have a tough schedule remaining too or the Black and Silver might not make the post season this year.

Boston Celtics: The Celtics have all but assured themselves a home series in the first round as they currently sit 4th in the East with a seven-game cushion over the rest of the East. But they'll more than likely have to win a road series after that to advance further than the first round. Boston trails the #3 seed Atlanta by just a game but they have a brutal schedule to close the season out. The Celtics have 23 games to finish the season with 15 of those coming against teams with a .500 or better record. Eight of those 15 games against winning teams are also on the road. They have five different back-to-backs and play a really tough four-game stretch that will have them visit Houston, Dallas and Utah before coming home against Denver in a six day span.

Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets have 21 games remaining on their schedule and 16 are versus .500 plus teams. They have to close out the season by playing nine of their last 10 games against teams with winning records. They have a four and five-game road trips remaining and must play without rest on six different nights. Eight of the Nuggets last 11 road games are against playoff caliber teams which isn't good news for Denver as they are just 14-16 SU on the road this season.

Best of luck with all of your NBA wagers the rest of the way!

**StarDust Bum** · 03-07-2010, 08:44 AM

Sunday, March 7Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 12:30 PM ET Detroit +152 500 ( NHL UPSET )
Chicago - Over 5.5 500

Boston - 3:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -178 500
Pittsburgh - Over 5.5 500

Vancouver - 3:00 PM ET Nashville +115 500
Nashville - Under 5.5 500

Calgary - 3:00 PM ET Minnesota -127 500
Minnesota - Under 5 500

Carolina - 5:00 PM ET Carolina +115 500 ( NHL DOG )
Atlanta - Over 6 500

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Toronto +210 500
Philadelphia - Over 5.5 500

New Jersey - 8:00 PM ET New Jersey -205 500
Edmonton - Under 5.5 500

Montreal - 8:00 PM ET Montreal +149 500 ( NHL DOG )
Anaheim - Under 5.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-07-2010, 09:21 AM

I have a question to anyone who reads or stops by my place here....does these short articles i place here help or hinder your wagering......would just seeing what my plays are be better......i feel the more information we all have the better off we maybe.......then again we all have our own ways of capping games...............please let me know your thoughts ....thank you...........

**videoman** · 03-07-2010, 10:22 AM

As always I am very appreciative of the write-ups. I've got some great info that helped me decide which side or stay away. It's so hard to try to handicap all games deciding which ones are the best of the lot. Any input and knowledge you've got to share is a big help. I always try to play your top plays and some of the other plays help me decide which direction.

**Chado1** · 03-07-2010, 11:07 AM

GL with the action today BUM!!!

**StarDust Bum** · 03-07-2010, 11:08 AM

Cool........then its not a waste of my time.....anyone else?

**Jimmy The Greek** · 03-07-2010, 11:12 AM

yes sir.......

i follow your pod n love ummmmmmm lol .......... sitting waiting to see who you like today lol thanks bum

**StarDust Bum** · 03-07-2010, 11:25 AM

Sunday, March 7Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 12:00 PM ET Toronto -7 500
Toronto - Under 208 500

L.A. Lakers - 2:30 PM ET Orlando -2.5 500 ( NBA POD )
Orlando - Under 194 500

Houston - 6:00 PM ET Detroit +2 500
Detroit - Under 196.5 500

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Washington +12.5 500
Boston - Under 193.5 500

Oklahoma City - 9:00 PM ET Sacramento +3.5 500
Sacramento - Under 203 500

Portland - 10:30 PM ET Portland +6 500 ( NBA DOG )
Denver - Over 206.5 500 ( NBA TOTAL )

**StarDust Bum** · 03-07-2010, 11:26 AM

Am sitting along also waiting for all these lines to come out on these college games..........

**Jimmy The Greek** · 03-07-2010, 11:28 AM

me too lol you like kentucky? only noon game -11.5

**StarDust Bum** · 03-07-2010, 11:42 AM

Right now for those wanting a Opinion on the Florida/Kentucky game:

Am liking Florida and the 12 pts....game to go OVER 140.5

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