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**BettorsChat** · 03-04-2010, 05:44 PM

gl Stardust

**shoeman530** · 03-04-2010, 06:09 PM

Good luck bum

**StarDust Bum** · 03-04-2010, 06:26 PM

MIDWEEK UPDATE

A quick glimpse at some highlights (and lowlights) from earlier this week...

Bubble Trouble...It's getting to be nervous time for a few teams hovering in the danger zone. Minnesota can surely kiss its at-large hopes goodbye after an ugly 83-55 Tuesday night loss at Michigan, which has disappointed this season (not even John Beilein can win with a team that can't shoot from the perimeter). Although a few Big Ten observers believe the Wolverines could be a pesky darkhorse in next week's Big Ten Tourney at Conseco Fieldhouse. Illinois is officially in trouble after losing on Tuesday at Ohio State; if the Illini can't beat Wisconsin this weekend, they enter the Big Ten Tourney with 13 losses, which is probably too many to secure an at-large bid. Despite getting some not-so-discreet aid from the officials (we were humored by Vandy HC Kevin Stallings halftime comments to ESPN's Jeanine Edwards, when the coach indirectly took a swipe at the refs by saying "We usually get to the free throw line" while referencing the non-calls), Florida is now on a 3-game losing streak after losing on Tuesday vs. Vanderbilt, and will be on a 4-game skid entering next week's SEC Tourney at the Sommet Center if it can't beat Kentucky this weekend. We hope for Billy Donovan's sake that he brings the same refs to Rupp Arena who worked the Vandy game after only 10 fouls (which was unbelievable if you watched the game) were called on the Gators vs. the Dores. Wake Forest is now on a 4-game slide after Wednesday night's close loss at Florida State and is in danger of playing itself out of the at-large picture if it can't beat Clemson on Sunday at Winston-Salem. Georgia Tech's at-large hopes could hinge on a Saturday win over Virginia Tech; the Yellow Jackets have already played themselves out of a first-round bye in the ACC Tourney with 7 losses in 8 ACC road games, including Tuesday's setback at Clemson.

Still breathing...Don't look now, but Notre Dame keeps winning without Luke Harangody, who missed his fifth straight game Wednesday night at South Bend vs. UConn. But the Irish won for a third straight time, 58-60, as Mike Brey seems to have stumbled upon a winning formula by slowing the pace and getting others involved in the offense, namely G Tory Jackson, who has emerged as the Irish go-to threat minus Big Luke after scoring 22 vs. the Huskies. A win Saturday at Marquette gets ND to 21 wins and 10-8 in the Big East, and we dare say locks up an at-large bid. Rhode Island officially ended Charlotte's at-large hopes with an 80-58 win on Wednesday night at Kingston, temporarily reviving the Rams' flickering Big Dance hopes. Also lurking on the edge of the bubble is Memphis, quietly surging down the stretch with 6 wins in its last 7 games, including a crucial 70-65 triumph at UAB on Wednesday night behind 18 points from Doneal Mack and 17 from Elliott Williams. Reversing either of the close losses to Kansas and Tennessee in non-conference play would probably have Josh Pastner's team in safe territory, but UM has at least given the Selection Committee something else to think about in C-USA.

Player of the night (Wednesday): Tory Jackson, G, Notre Dame... After a slow first half (when he scored only 2 points) that reflected some awful offense by the Fighting Irish (who missed 26 of their first 34 shots), Jackson completely dominated the second half against UConn, scoring 20 points in the final 20 minutes of a crucial 58-50 win by the Irish that pus them close to securing a Big Dance at-large bid. The 5-11 senior has emerged as Notre Dame's go-to threat in the absence of injured C Luke Harangody, with Jackson scoring 16 ppg his last four games, while hitting 61% from the floor in the process.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-04-2010, 06:28 PM

MVC Tourney Preview

The Missouri Valley deservedly received a lot of attention a few years ago as the cream of the crop among the non-BCS conferences but that stature had faded a bit the last three years. Northern Iowa has clinched the regular season title and appears to be relatively safe for an at-large spot should the Panthers falter in the conference tournament which could be a wide open affair. The Panthers lost to last place Evansville last week so surprises in the conference tournament that starts this week should be expected. Wichita State and Illinois State have been the next best teams in the league but both would fall short in the eyes of the NCAA tournament selection committee so a lot will be on the line in what will be a very meaningful and likely closely contested tournament.

With ten teams playing over the course of four consecutive days the bracket for the Missouri Valley tournament lines up neatly with the top two seeds, Northern Iowa and Wichita State, earning byes. All games are being played at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. The bottom four teams will play Thursday with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals against the top two seeds and forming a standard eight-team bracket. The #1 seed has won the tournament the past two years with Northern Iowa winning last season and Drake winning in 2008 but prior to that the top seed had failed to earn the automatic bid in nine straight years. The top two seeds have met in the championship five times in the past twelve years but 2008 was the only year in that span where the #1 seed won that match-up.

Drake and Southern Illinois face off in the opening #8/9 match-up on Thursday night. In the regular season Drake won both meetings, winning by five on the road and by seven at home. The Bulldogs did close the year poorly however, losing seven of the final ten games including dropping the home finale against last place Evansville. Southern Illinois was not any better in the final ten games as the Salukis closed the season in a 6-12 rut after starting the year 9-2. Both of these teams won their bracket buster match-ups and did produce upset wins against some of the upper echelon teams in the league so both would be more than capable of posing a threat to top seed Northern Iowa in the next game, although the Panthers did sweep both teams in the regular season.

Northern Iowa can not feel completely safe about its NCAA tournament prospects despite an impressive 25-4 campaign. The bracket buster win over Old Dominion was likely the strongest victory of the season as non-conference wins over Boston College, Iowa State, Iowa, and Siena did not pan out to be as strong as they appeared at the time. It would be a surprise and a mistake to leave the Panthers out of the NCAA tournament field but this team has given its detractors some ammunition to work with. Northern Iowa lost two of its final five games both to marginal teams, 15-14 Bradley and 9-20 Evansville. A third bad loss in the opening Missouri Valley tournament game could push the Panthers to the bubble even with a convincing regular season league title.

The late game on Thursday features Missouri State and Evansville. Losing the final game of the season in overtime to Indiana State was costly for the Bears and led to this seeding and the extra game. Missouri State started the season strong, opening 10-0 and then 12-1 including a couple of solid non-conference wins, beating Auburn, Tulsa, and St. Louis but the conference season proved very difficult. If any team is the ultimate dark horse in this tournament it could be the Bears who finished 8-10 in league play but seven of those losses came by six-points or less. The two games with Wichita State were both losses for Missouri State but the combined margin of defeat was only five points in the two games and the Bears also played close in both losses to Northern Iowa.

Evansville won only three games in league play but all three came in the last month and included home upsets over both of the top two teams in the conference. Evansville won the final two games of the regular season so the Aces will have a little bit of momentum for a last place team. Evansville lost by double-digits in both regular season meetings with Missouri State however so this could be a tough opening game to get by. Wichita State closed the season just 4-4 in the final eight games with slim margins on most of the victories. The Shockers were a great home team this season but went just 2-7 S/U in conference road games so this could be a team that is vulnerable in this tournament as a #2 seed even in the opening game against a much worse seeded squad.

Creighton and Bradley will meet in the afternoon quarterfinal on Friday and this should prove to be a closely contested match-up as the #4/5 seeding would suggest. Creighton finished league play at 10-8 and it certainly was a down year for a Blue Jays team that is accustomed to being among the top teams in this conference. The 16-14 overall record looks questionable but this team ended up playing a very tough non-conference schedule as teams like New Mexico, Xavier, and Dayton all had strong seasons. Creighton beat Bradley in both meetings this season including the home finale less than a week ago but it can be very difficult to beat a team three times in a season. Bradley started the conference season poorly but picked up big wins down the stretch including home victories against the top two seeds. Bradley did not have great success in road games this season however so it will be tough to expect a great run from the Braves.

The #3/6 match-up features Illinois State against Indiana State. These teams split in the regular season with the home teams winning comfortably in both meetings. Illinois State closed the season with wins in six of the final seven games but probably needed to upset Northern Iowa in the regular season finale to make a legitimate case on the bubble. Still if the bubble expands significantly and the Redbirds can play to the conference tournament final, there may a case to be made with the great late season play. Indiana State played in four overtime games in the conference season and this was a very competitive team in most games. One of the uncompetitive affairs was the most recent meeting between these two teams which Illinois State won by 17 just over a week ago. The Sycamores did win six of the final ten games but only one of those wins came on the road.

The Missouri Valley Conference tournament will not have a lot of drama in terms of teams playing their way into the NCAA tournament as this should clearly be just a one-bid league if Northern Iowa wins the automatic bid and a two-bid league if another team wins it but it should serve up compelling and entertaining basketball. This conference has only sent one team to the NCAA tournament in the last two years and both teams saw a first round exit but in very close games. Over the past four years the Missouri Valley has produced three Sweet 16 teams however so this is a conference to keep an eye even if the league is not getting the attention of years past.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-04-2010, 06:33 PM

Inside the Paint - Thursday

College basketball usually rules the hardwood in March but Thursday’s TNT double-header in the NBA continues to offer up some intriguing matchups. This week’s pair starts with a quality non-conference battle between the Lakers and Heat from American Airlines Arena in South Florida. The nightcap takes place from the desert when the Jazz visit the Suns in a potential first round playoff matchup. Also on the card tonight is a contest between the Grizzlies and Bulls from “The Windy City.”
Before we delve into tonight’s slate, gamblers should be aware of the surprising ‘over’ run in March. It’s known that late in the season some clubs pack it in and put defense second, but this is definitely a little early. Monday and Tuesday saw the ‘over’ produce a 10-3 mark and with 12 games last night, most would’ve expected the pendulum to swing back the other way. That wasn’t the case as the ‘over’ went 7-5 in the dozen contests, pushing the three-day mark to 17-8 (68%).

Let’s break ‘em down.

L.A. Lakers (46-15 SU, 27-31 ATS) at Miami (30-31 SU, 29-32 ATS)

Los Angeles was fortunate begin its season with 17 of its first 21 games played at Staples Center and not surprisingly, the team produced an 18-3 record over this span. The hot start helped the Lakers build a nice lead in the Western Conference, which now stands as a six-game cushion over Dallas. While the top seed in the West seems very likely for L.A., Phil Jackson’s team is just one game behind Cleveland for the best record in the league but a daunting finish could have the Purple and Gold come up short. The defending champions have 21 games left on their schedule and 14 of them will be on the road.

On Thursday, the Lakers will embark on their final road trip to the East Coast as they play three games in four nights. The first matchup happens in South Beach, where Miami will be looking to avenge a 108-107 road loss to Los Angeles on Dec. 4, when the Lakers’ Kobe Bryant drilled a game-winning 3-pointer off the glass as time expired. Including this triumph, Los Angeles has won six of the last eight against the Heat but the two losses did come at Miami.

Miami closed the first-half of the season strong and it came out of the break strong as well, winning five straight (4-1 ATS), four coming by double digits. Unfortunately, All-Star Dwyane Wade (calf) was hurt during the win streak and he missed four games, which saw Miami go 1-3 both SU and ATS. Even though Wade returned Sunday, the club still came up short in a loss at Orlando (80-96). The Heat snapped their four-game slid on Tuesday after stopping Golden State (110-106) at home.

Miami failed to cover as a 10-1/2 point favorite against the short-handed Warriors, which was its third straight non-cover at home. On the season, the Heat has gone 15-14 SU and 12-17 ATS at home. As a home ‘dog, the club has gone 2-2 both SU and ATS. Tonight, Miami is listed as a five-point underdog versus the Lakers.

The Heat’s win over Golden State watched the combined 216 points jump ‘over’ the closing number of 200. Prior to that game, the ‘under’ was on a 9-1 run in the last 10. L.A. was on a solid ‘under’ streak (8-1) as well before the team saw the ‘over’ cash in its 122-99 victory against Indiana on Tuesday.

Utah (38-22 SU, 37-21 ATS) at Phoenix (39-24 SU, 36-26 ATS)

If the playoffs started today, the Jazz and Suns would be squaring off in the first round. The two will meet tonight for the second time this season, with tonight’s venue taking place from US Airways Center. Utah rallied past Phoenix 124-115 on Jan. 25 from Salt Lake City as a seven-point favorite and the combined 239 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 221 ½. The home victory by the Jazz was the fifth straight for the host in this head-to-head series.

When breaking down this game, most gamblers look at the point guard matchup between Steve Nash and Deron Williams. In the January encounter, Nash had 15 points and 15 assists, while Williams dropped in 18 points and 11 assists, which most would consider a push. The key to Utah’s win was its advantage on the glass (48-31), plus it’s fair to say that Phoenix was fortunate to stay in the game with a 17-of-30 (57%) performance from 3-point land. Will the trends continue in the desert?

If you’ve followed Phoenix lately, then you’re away of how hot the team has been. The Suns have quietly gone 13-3 SU and 14-2 ATS in their last 16, which includes a 6-1 SU and ATS mark at home. Alvin Gentry’s troops will be playing on zero days rest tonight after blasting the Clippers 127-101 in L.A. on Wednesday. The club has struggled to a 6-9 record both SU and ATS on no rest this season. However, only five of those 15 instances were played at home and the Suns have gone 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in that span. Even though Phoenix has been on a crazy roll, the oddsmakers only opened the club as a one-point favorite over Utah.

Overall, Phoenix has gone 23-7 SU at home but its only 13-16-1 ATS. It’s well known that Utah has always played better at home, yet Jerry Sloan’s team has managed to go 14-14 SU and 16-11 ATS outside of Salt Lake this season and they just saw a hot road streak come to a close. Utah had ripped off seven straight wins and covers away from home, but they suffered bad road losses to the Kings (99-103) last Friday and Clippers (104-108) recently on Monday.

Including the first battle this season, the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Suns. Phoenix has watched the ‘over’ go 4-2 in its last six after watching eight straight go ‘under’ the number. Utah enters this game with five straight ‘over’ tickets. The total for tonight is hovering around 213 points.

Bullies at Home

The other game on the board tonight has Chicago (31-29 SU, 30-28 ATS) welcoming Memphis (33-30 SU, 33-27 ATS) to the United Center. Vinny Del Negro’s team has been a solid wager on their homecourt this season (19-10 SU, 15-12 ATS). Even though the Bulls lost to the Hawks (92-116) at home on Monday, the club has gone 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 from the Windy City.

The Grizzlies could be a little fatigued for this matchup after beating New Orleans 104-100 on Wednesday, which was their fifth straight victory and cover on the road. Memphis was once an automatic fade in the backend of two-game sets this year, but things have changed lately. After going 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS in its first 12 encounters on zero days rest, Memphis has quietly ripped off three straight wins, all coming on the road too.

Sticking with the road talk, the Grizzlies’ offense (104 PPG) has been better away from FedEx Forum this season. Unfortunately the defense (107 PPG) has gotten worse, which has produced a 19-9 ‘over’ record.

Memphis has gone 13-9 against the Eastern Conference this season, while Chicago has produced a 12-11 ledger versus the West. Tonight’s battle will be the first meeting between the pair this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-04-2010, 09:09 PM

Bowling Green - 7:00 PM ET Ohio -7.5 500 ( MAC POD )
Ohio - Over 135.5 500
( WINNER )

Southern Illinois - 7:05 PM ET Drake +3.5 500 ( MVC DOG )
Drake - Over 134.5 500
( WINNER )

**bryce** · 03-04-2010, 09:49 PM

Good job and gl with the rest!

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