Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 03-02-2010, 07:33 PM

Super Tuesday

From those schools like Duke, Purdue and Kansas St. who are vying for a No. 1 seed to schools looking to wrap up at-large invites like Marquette, Louisville and Florida, the pressure is on to collect as many wins as possible down the stretch. The Gators, fresh off a heartbreaking loss at underrated Georgia, return to the court tonight vs. Vandy.

Cincinnati is in desperation mode when it hosts Villanova, while Marquette and Louisville also square off in a crucial Big East showdown. Let's look at these three contests and much more on tonight's college hoops card that has 27 board games, including the opening-round games in several small conference tournaments.

**Vanderbilt at Florida**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Florida (20-9 straight up, 13-11 against the spread) as a 2 ½-point favorite. As of early this morning, most betting shops had UF favored by three with a total of 146 1/2.

--Billy Donovan’s team saw its three-game winning streak snapped Saturday at Stegeman Coliseum in Athens. Georgia held off the Gators 78-76 to take the cash as a two-point home underdog. UF’s Chandler Parsons scored a game-high 29 points and nearly led his team back from a 45-30 halftime deficit. The Gators easily covered the spread for second-half wagers in which they were four-point favorites, equating to plus 11 for the game when considering the 15-point deficit. Kenny Boynton drained 6-of-9 shots from 3-point range and finished with 22 points.

--Vanderbilt (22-6 SU, 14-12 ATS) has won five of its last six games, although we should note its shaky 3-6 spread record in its last nine games. The Commodores are coming off a dominant performance Saturday at Arkansas, where they destroyed the Razorbacks by an 89-72 count as two-point road favorites. Jeffery Taylor had a team-high 18 points for Vandy, while A.J. Ogilvy had 14 points, six rebounds and a pair of blocked shots in just 14 minutes of playing time due to foul trouble.

--UF is 13-3 SU and 6-6 ATS at home this year. The Gators have lost to South Alabama, Kentucky and Xavier at The O-Dome.

--Kevin Stallings’ squad is 11-3 in SEC play, leaving it one game back of Kentucky in the SEC East. However, the ‘Cats won both head-to-head meetings and would therefore win the tiebreaker. UF is 9-5 in league play, leaving it in a third-place tie with Tennessee in the East.

--Vandy owns a 5-1 record both SU and ATS in six games as a road underdog. The ‘Dores have won at Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at South Carolina, at Alabama and at Saint Mary’s.

--Florida has posted a 4-3 spread record in seven games as single-digit home ‘chalk.’

--The ‘over’ is on a 10-2 run for Vandy in its last 12 games and is 16-8 overall.

--The ‘under’ is 11-9 overall for the Gators, 5-4 in their home games.

--When these schools met at Memorial Gym in Nashville back on Jan. 9, Vandy captured a 95-87 win as a six-point home favorite. The 182 combined points leaped ‘over’ the 141-point total. Ogilvy paced the Commodores with 24 points and eight rebounds, while Jermaine Beal added 22 points and five assists. Boynton had 28 points for the Gators, while Walker added 22 points and six assists.

--ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Villanova at Cincinnati**

--LVSC opened Villanova (23-5 SU, 17-10 ATS) as a four-point favorite. As of early this morning, most spots had 'Nova as a 3 1/2-point 'chalk' with a total of 149.

--Cincinnati (16-12 SU, 7-16 ATS) has won 12 of its 15 home games, but it has an atrocious 1-9 ATS record at home. The Bearcats have failed to cover in nine consecutive home assignments.

--Mickey Cronin’s team is looking to bounce back from Saturday’s 74-68 loss at West Va. The Bearcats covered the spread as 13-point underdogs, but they couldn’t maintain a six-point halftime lead and get what would’ve been a monster road win to improve their profile.

--Cincy is 7-9 in the Big East and has an RPI of 59. With a pair of wins over UConn and victories over Vandy and Maryland on a neutral court, the Bearcats still have hopes of garnering an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. With that said, they are most likely “out” if today was Selection Sunday, but a win over ‘Nova (RPI: 9) would obviously put them back into the conversation.

--Jay Wright’s team has lost three of its last four games and is also mired in a 2-6 ATS slide. The Wildcats took woodshed treatment Saturday night at the Carrier Dome, where the ‘Cuse cruised to a 95-77 victory in front of a record crowd. The Orange covered the number as a 4 ½-point home favorite.

--Villanova is 3-3 versus the number in six games as a road favorite. In 11 road games (regardless of 'dog or 'chalk'), the Wildcats are 6-5 ATS.

--The ‘under’ is 12-10 overall for Cincy, but the ‘over’ is 6-3 in its nine home games with a total.

--The ‘over’ is 17-10 overall for ‘Nova, but the ‘under’ is 5-4 in its last nine games.

--ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Louisville at Marquette**

--LVSC opened Marquette (19-9 SU, 14-7-1 ATS) as a three-point favorite. As of early this morning, most books had the Golden Eagles at two with a total of 137 1/2.

--Louisville (19-10 SU, 9-15 ATS) has won six of its last eight games to most likely put itself in line for an NCAA Tournament invite. A win in this spot would almost certainly seal that deal. The Cardinals have won three straight on the road, including Sunday’s 78-76 victory at UConn. They cooled off the red-hot Huskies with the outright win as four-point underdogs. Samardo Samuels led four U of L scorers in double figures with 14 points.

--Buzz Williams’ squad has won three in a row and eight of its last nine, including Sunday’s 84-83 win at Seton Hall as a 2 ½-point road underdog. The Golden Eagles had to go into overtime for the third straight game in order to garner the ‘W.’ Lazar Hayward was the catalyst with 23 points, eight rebounds and three blocked shots.

--Marquette is 12-3 SU and 5-4 ATS at home this year.

--Louisville has beaten Marquette four straight times and in seven of the last eight head-to-head encounters. The Cards are 5-3 ATS in those eight games.

--The ‘under’ is 5-2 in Louisville’s last seven games, but the ‘over’ is 14-9 overall for the Cardinals this year.

--The ‘over’ is 12-10 overall for Marquette, but the ‘under’ is 5-4 in its home outings.

--The 'under' has cashed in four consecutive head-to-head meetings between these schools and six of the last seven.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Everybody said the right things and head coach Matt Painter refused to make any excuses but, sadly, it was clear – and I mean crystal -- that Purdue is no longer a viable candidate to go to the Final Four without junior forward Robbie Hummel. As we discussed last week, Hummel is now out for the season with a torn ACL. Without him, the Boilermakers lost a 53-44 decision at home to Michigan St. on Sunday. If Purdue plays its best basketball the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, yes, it can still be a Sweet 16 squad. But that’s if the Boilers are clicking on all cylinders. In other words, their room for error(s) has been dramatically reduced.

--Minnesota invades Ann Arbor tonight in dire need of a win. The Gophers were one-point road favorites at most spots this morning. They will face Michigan on the Big Ten Network at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. Tubby Smith’s team has covered the spread in four straight games, including Saturday’s 62-60 win at Illinois as a three-point underdog.

--The ‘under’ has cashed in eight consecutive Michigan home games.

--Ohio St. can clinch the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament with a home win tonight vs. Illinois. The Buckeyes have been installed as 9 ½-point favorites as of early this morning. They already thumped the Illini this year, capturing a 72-53 win as two-point road favorites on Valentine’s Day.

--LVSC opened Clemson as a five-point home favorite for tonight’s game vs. Ga. Tech. However, the Tigers were rich seven-point ‘chalk’ as of early this morning. They are 9-3 ATS at home. Oliver Purnell’s team has won four of its last five games, including Sunday’s come-from behind win at FSU, 53-50, as a five-point underdog.

--According to multiple reports, Oklahoma guard Willie Warren will undergo season-ending surgery on his ankle tomorrow. Warren, a sophomore, was averaging 16.3 points and 4.1 assists per game.

--Three Predictions:
1-Georgia is going to beat Kentucky outright tomorrow night in Athens.
2-Xavier is going to make it to the Elite Eight, maybe further.
3-Cornell is going to the Sweet 16.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-02-2010, 07:35 PM

Weekend Rewind

Well, maybe college basketball can finally get the stage to itself, at least for a few weeks.

For those who thought the composition of the Final Four was a fait accompli, last weekend should change your mind. The college season wasn't exactly turned inside-out (except for one particular high-ranking team...more on that in a moment), but anyone who pegged Kansas or Kentucky as untouchables has something else to consider after Saturday, when both went down to stinging road defeats (the Jayhawks at Oklahoma State, the Wildcats at Tennessee).

But Kansas and Kentucky supporters can feel fortunate that they're not instead backing Purdue, whose very-real title hopes were dealt a lethal blow with last Wednesday's season-ending knee injury suffered by versatile star jr. F Robbie Hummel. Depth was not a strength of this Boilermakers team in the first place, and when Purdue laid an egg on Sunday in its first game post-Hummel, losing at home to Michigan State by a 53-44 count, the air was suddenly out of the Boilermaker balloon. Although Purdue is still capable of winning a game or two in the Big Dance, its days as a serious title contender this season are history without Hummel.

Other interesting developments over the weekend...

1) Here comes...Notre Dame? Absolutely. The Irish are back in bubble territory and into the at-large mix after Saturday's 78-64 romp past Georgetown at the Verizon Center, Notre Dame's second straight win minus injured frontliner Luke Harangody, who has now missed four games with a bruised knee. But after beating ranked Pitt and the Hoyas in the last week, we wonder if HC Mike Brey is really going to want to hustle big Luke back into the lineup, especially since the coach has confirmed observations by us and others by admitting that the Irish might be a bit better defensively without Harangody in the lineup. Notre Dame is not into the Big Dance yet, and has a couple of tough games on deck vs. UConn and Marquette. Meanwhile, Brey has said there is a chance Harangody might not return for the rest of the season, professing caution with this sort of knee injury that could be a precursor ro a microfracture problem.

2) Bubble trouble for Florida?...After last Tuesday's win over Tennessee, Florida's at-large case looked to be pretty solid. But by stumbling on Saturday at underrated Georgia, the Gators are back in plenty of bubble trouble, especially with Vanderbilt (at Gainesville) and Kentucky (at Lexington) on deck this week. For the moment, we've kept Florida in our field of 65 (check out our attached and updated "Bracketology" report), but the situation is going to be fluid all of the way until Selection Sunday. There are now plenty of ways to envision the Gators missing out on the Dance for a third straight year.

3) Pac-10 not a one-bid league after all?...Maybe not, especially with Cal securing the top seed in the upcoming Pac Ten Tourney and clinching no worse than a tie for the conference regular-season crown with last weekend's sweep of the Arizona schools. Considering that the Bears were minus one of their high scorers, 6-6 F Theo Robertson (14 ppg), for a 6-game early-season stretch that saw Cal lose to Syracuse, Ohio State, and New Mexico, the Committee might cut the Berkeley boys a bit of slack for some of those early defeats. But it might not have to, since the Bears' computer numbers suggest they're in solid at-large territory even if they lose in the Pac-10 Tourney. Which means that the Pac-10 could easily become a 2-bid league if someone other than the Bears wins next week at Staples Center. By the way, the Pac-10 event looks like one of the most wide-open major conference tourneys we can ever recall, with any of the nine entrants (Southern Cal not participating) apparently having a shot.

4) But before jumping on a Pac-10 bandwagon...The sorry state of affairs in the Pac-10 was nonetheless underlined by the fact that a lowly Oregon team could come into the L.A. schools last weekend and sweep USC and UCLA, which the Ducks also managed in late January in Eugene. Oregon, one of the league's weaker defensive teams, held the Trojans to a hard-to-believe 12 points in the second half of Oregon's 54-44 win last Thursday. For SC, it was the middle of an awful 3-game offensive sandwich in which Troy failed to crack 47 points and committed almost as many turnovers (47) as field goals (53) while dropping games vs. Washington State and Oregon State as well as Ernie Kent's Ducks. Oregon sr. G Tajaun Porter, who was truly been from the penthouse (Elite 8 team as a frosh, NCAA team as a soph) to the outhouse during his career in Eugene, burned the-team formally-known-as-UCLA with 29 points in a 70-68 win on Saturday at Pauley Pavilion. The Ducks had lost 5 straight and 10 of 12 entering last weekend's set in L.A., yet amazingly exited town being considered as a possible darkhorse for the tourney next week, down the street from the Galen Center at Staples Center. Could Ernie Kent yet save his job?

5) More bubble trouble...Virginia Tech, now on a 3-game losing streak after losing in double OT vs. Maryland, 104-00; Wake Forest, also sliding with three straight losses, the last two of those vs. ACC cellar-dwellers NC State and North Carolina; Illinois, which continues to make it hard on itself after bowing at home, 62-60, vs. Minnesota on Saturday; UConn, which had put itself into position for a late run at an at-large berth only to succumb on Sunday vs. Louisville, 78-76, as a hail of turnovers (a recurring problem for the Huskies, with 22 total vs. the Cards, 11 combined by Jerome Dyson & Stanley Robinson) proved costly at Storrs; and Rhode Island, fading late again and now a loser of four of its last five after dropping a damaging 81-74 verdict at St. Bonaventure.

Player of the Weekend: Greivis Vasquez, Maryland...Although he had an extra 10 minutes to pad his point total in the Terps' 104-100 double OTwin at Virginia Tech, Vasquez' 41 point effort at Blacksburg deserves special recognition. It wasn't as if Vasquez started off in ball of fire at Cassell Coliseum, missing 8 of 10 shots and scoring only 8 points in the first half, but he erupted for 33 in the second half and the overtimes to pace Maryland to an important road win that now has the Terps thinking about a protected seed on Selection Sunday.

Game of the Weekend: New Mexico 83 - BYU 81 at Provo...This Mountain West showdown lived up to its billing and then some, with the Lobos displaying all of their resourcefulness while fighting back and then repelling the determined Cougs in the final minute. BYU was compromised in the second half when star G Jimmer Fredette missed all but a few seconds of action while suffering from the flu...but maybe it really wasn't compromised all that much, as Fredette's backup Michael Loyd Jr. scored all 19 of his points in the final 20 minutes. Still, almost every New Mexico player had a key moment down the stretch, especially star F Darrington Hobson, who blocked Noah Hartsock's potential game-tying shot in the final seconds. The action included an incident between Hobson and Cougar senior Jonathan Tavernari in the final minute, which carried over tot he postgame handshakes when Tavernari exchanged words with other Lobos including HC Steve Alford, although the BYU swingman made amends by apologizing to all afterwards in the New Mexico locker room. Just another non-eventful afternoon in Provo.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-02-2010, 07:37 PM

Trend Report - Tuesday

Warriors at Heat – The Warriors are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since December 07, 2007 after a home win in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Warriors are 0-8 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since March 10, 1997 on the road off a win as a favorite in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since December 03, 2002 with two or more days of rest after a win in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.

Pacers at Lakers – The Pacers are 0-5 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since April 04, 2004 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Lakers are 0-5-1 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since January 06, 2010 after a home win in which their DPS was negative.

Celtics at Pistons – The Celtics are 0-10 ATS (-5.9 ppg) since March 04, 2009 after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Celtics are 9-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since February 15, 2000 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since November 22, 2009 when they lost their last two games and both were on the road.

Kings at Thunder – The Kings are 6-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since January 02, 2009 after a home win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Kings are 0-6 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since December 01, 2006 on the road after a win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Thunder are 5-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since December 29, 2008 at home when seeking revenge for a 1-3 point loss.

Announcement

The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets + Pod's !

The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets + Pod's !

Comment

Comment

Comment