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**StarDust Bum** · 02-28-2010, 10:50 AM

The rest of the NBA Schedule:

Milwaukee - 6:00 PM ET Milwaukee +7.5 500 ( NBA POD )
Atlanta - Over 190 500

Washington - 6:00 PM ET New Jersey +1.5 500
New Jersey - Over 192.5 500

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Toronto +7.5 500 ( UNDERDOG OF THE DAY )
Oklahoma City - Under 207 500

Miami - 7:00 PM ET Orlando -12.5 500
Orlando - Under 183.5 500

L.A. Clippers - 9:00 PM ET L.A. Clippers +3 500
Sacramento - Under 204 500

New Orleans - 9:30 PM ET Dallas -7.5 500
Dallas - Over 200.5 300

**StarDust Bum** · 02-28-2010, 10:54 AM

NBA Hoops with a Western flavor

Four of the top seven teams in the highly competitive Western Conference will be on display Sunday afternoon before a national television audience. Phoenix starts the day with southwest theme, traveling to face their postseason nemesis San Antonio. Later, two of the three division leaders from the West, Denver and the L.A. Lakers, will meet for a second time this month. This should be two quality contests and who knows; maybe Phil Jackson will give a parabolic dissertation during a break talking to ABC sideline reporter.

Suns are hot

The Phoenix Suns (37-23, 33-26-1 ATS) are at their highest winning percentage in two years and look to make it six wins in a row. Phoenix has won six of seven and is doing it in a way nobody thought possible, with defense. The suddenly defensive-minded Suns have held last seven opponents to 97 points per game, a jaw-dropping 8.2 points below season average. Coach Alvin Gentry is going to hate to see February disappear since his club is 9-2 SU and 9-2 ATS this month, performing like a ruling dictator, with a perfect 9-0 record when leading by 10 points or more in a contest.

Don’t dismiss San Antonio (32-24, 26-29-1 ATS) just yet. A measure of a team’s strength is their margin of victory. The Spurs might have just the seventh best record in the West, but they are fourth in point differential at +4.o, ahead of division leading Dallas (+2.1). They have blown an uncharacteristic number of leads and suffered defensive meltdowns at inopportune times. This team might not resemble the won that won four NBA titles is nine years, but there core players are still intact, making the Spurs dangerous. San Antonio is just 1-3 in previous four tries and is 22-10 ATS at home after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last three seasons.

Sportsbook.com has the Spurs favored by 3.5-points with total of 208.5 and after losing to Houston Friday, is just 1-8 ATS after a division game this season. Phoenix beat the Clippers two days ago 125-112 and is 20-11 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season.

The opening game is set for 1:00 Eastern with the Suns 4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits.

Revenge is best served cold

The Lakers (44-15, 25-32-2 ATS) lost at the Staples Center just over three weeks ago to Denver 126-113 and will be thinking payback. The great orator coach Jackson, seldom passes up an opportunity to play with opponent’s minds and recently said, “Some of these guys' (the Lakers) sentiment is Utah is going to outplay Denver,". Phil, Phil, Phil.

Los Angeles has been meandering most of the month with 7-4 (3-8 ATS) record and players have wondered aloud about their own effort. “Maybe we weren't going to get the ball with the will necessary." -- Pau Gasol, on the Lakers getting outrebounded in Dallas and Memphis this past week.

The Lakers defeated Philadelphia in last contest 99-90 as 11-point favorites and is 3-8 ATS off a home no-cover were the team won straight up as a favorite.

The Nuggets (39-19, 27-28-3 ATS) start a strenuous week, beginning with the Lakers, followed up at Phoenix and home to Oklahoma City. Denver understands the way to beat the Lakers, you have to be more aggressive, limit mistakes and not let them control the lane. In the last contest, they took the game to L.A. shooting 57.1 percent and doing a better job in half court sets in shot selection. Denver comes in 12-1 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.

L.A. is a 6.5-point favorite and total is posted at 208.5. They may have the edge since Denver is 3-11 ATS playing their third game in four days this year. The Lake show is 22-8 UNDER on Sunday’s since last season. Mark this matchup for 3:30 Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-28-2010, 10:58 AM

Sunday Tips

The Sunday NBA card is loaded with action, including several dynamic early tips. Two Western Conference showdowns highlight the matinee matchups, while the surprising Bucks look to finish off a tough stretch with a win in Atlanta.

Suns (37-23 SU, 34-26 ATS) at Spurs (32-24 SU, 26-29-1 ATS)

Phoenix and San Antonio meet up for the second time this season, tipping off locally at noon at the AT&T Center. The Suns have been one of the hottest teams in the league both SU and ATS as of late, compiling an 11-2 mark. The Spurs try to rebound after a 109-104 setback at Houston on Friday.

San Antonio has played just one home game since the start of February, thanks to the annual "Rodeo Road Trip," which kicked the Spurs out of their building for over two weeks. Gregg Popovich's club came home from the road trip on Wednesday and picked up a 95-87 victory over Oklahoma City, covering as 4 ½-point home favorites.

The Suns were struggling away from the Valley from late December through January, putting together a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS mark. Starting with an overtime victory at Houston on January 31, the Suns have run off six road victories (and covers) in their last seven on the highway. Phoenix owns a sharp 5-1 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog in this stretch, including triumphs at Denver, New Orleans, and Oklahoma City, while snapping the Thunder's nine-game winning streak.

Phoenix topped San Antonio at home in the teams' first meeting back on December 15, as the Suns won 116-104 as two-point 'chalk.' Last season, the Spurs knocked off the Suns three of four times, while splitting the two contests in San Antonio. The Spurs are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS this season at home following a road loss, with the lone defeat coming to the Jazz in mid-November.

Nuggets (39-19 SU, 27-28-3 ATS) at Lakers (44-15 SU, 25-32-2 ATS)

The Western Conference Finals rematch from a season ago enters round three, as both the Lakers and Nuggets are coming off non-covers in home victories on Friday. Denver sits 4 ½ games behind Los Angeles for the top seed in the West, trying to secure the season series with a win at Staples Center.

The Nuggets are in their groove with Carmelo Anthony back in the lineup, winning five of their past seven since the star forward returned on February 9. Two games prior to Melo's comeback, the Nuggets rallied past the Lakers in L.A., 126-113, cashing as eight-point 'dogs. Denver ripped up Los Angeles from long distance, drilling 15 of 22 shots from three-point range, including nine treys from Chauncey Billups.

The Lakers have been pointspread poison lately, failing to cover in five straight games. The Champs are 2-1 SU since the return of Kobe Bryant to the lineup, beating the Grizzlies and Sixers. The 'under' has hit at a nice pace for the Lakers, cashing in seven of the last eight games.

Playing at Staples Center hasn't guaranteed covers for the Lakers, with the Purple and Gold stumbling to a 1-5 ATS mark the last six at home. Coincidentally, the sole victory came over the Spurs without Bryant and Andrew Bynum in the lineup back on February 8.

Denver is 5-1-2 ATS the previous eight as a road underdog, including wins over the Lakers, Cavs, and Spurs. The Nuggets are riding a 7-2 'over' run, while allowing at least 100 points in each of the last five contests.

Bucks (29-28 SU, 36-21 ATS) at Hawks (36-21 SU, 34-23 ATS)

Milwaukee will be concluded an exhausting stretch, playing its fourth game in five nights, as the Bucks head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks. Mike Woodson's team is looking to bounce back following Friday's home overtime loss to the Mavs.

Since the acquisition of swingman John Salmons at the trade deadline from Chicago, the Bucks are 6-0 SU/ATS, including Saturday's blowout of Miami. Milwaukee owns a strong 10-1 ATS mark the last ten away from the Bradley Center, while going 17-3 ATS the last 20 overall.

The Hawks have been 'fade' material of late, owning a 4-8 ATS record the last 12 games, including a 1-4 ATS run at home. Atlanta is 3-2 SU the last five at Philips Arena, with the largest margin of victory being ten points over Chicago on February 5. The Hawks are a strong 13-5 ATS against teams with no rest this season, including an 8-1 ATS ledger at home.

This will be the first meeting this season between these teams, but it's been all about the home club, who is 8-1-1 ATS the last ten matchups. In four of the last five home wins for the Hawks, Atlanta has won by double-digits. The 'over' has been nailed in five straight meetings, with the winner tallying at least 110 points four times.

What else to watch for:

-- The Heat and Magic lock horns in Orlando at 7:00 PM EST. Dwyane Wade is likely 'out' for the Heat, the fifth straight game he'll miss with a calf injury. Miami has covered each of the last four as a road underdog, including the last two without Wade at Memphis and Dallas. Orlando will be playing with double-revenge after Miami pulled off a pair of underdog victories over the Magic the first two months of the season. Stan Van Gundy's club is coming off Friday's come-from-ahead loss at New Orleans, but it's not a bad thing for the Magic. Orlando is 20-1 SU and 14-7 ATS since November 2008 as a home favorite off a road loss.

-- The Hornets continue to compete without the services of Chris Paul, going 6-7 SU and 8-5 ATS over the last 13 games. New Orleans travels to Dallas to battle a Mavs team that is red-hot, winners of six straight since a 13-point loss at Oklahoma City. Caron Butler is expected to return to the Dallas lineup after missing the last two games with a bad reaction to medicine. Even though the Mavs covered against the Lakers in their last home game, Rick Carlisle's squad is still 2-20 ATS the last 22 as a home favorite. On the flip side, the Hornets are 7-1 ATS the previous eight when receiving points on the road, but were blown out at Milwaukee the last time they were in the road 'dog role.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-28-2010, 10:59 AM

Trend Report - Sunday

Suns at Spurs – The Spurs are 0-8 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since March 31, 2009 after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Tim Duncan had a double double. The Spurs are 7-0-2 ATS (5.1 ppg) since May 25, 2008 after a loss on the road in which Manu Ginobili shot worse than 33% from the field.

Bucks at Hawks – The Bucks are 9-0-1 ATS (8.3 ppg) since January 05, 2010 before playing at home. The Hawks are 0-11 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since November 27, 2004 with at most one day of rest after a home loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points.

Nuggets at Lakers – The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS (-7.3 ppg) since March 02, 2008 before playing the Suns. The Lakers are 9-0 ATS (14.1 ppg) since April 09, 2009 at home when facing a team they lost to as a favorite in their previous same-season match-up. The Lakers are 9-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) since April 14, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss in which fewer than 50% of their baskets were assisted.

Heat at Magic – The Magic are 11-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since November 25, 2006 when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss as a favorite. The Magic are 6-0-2 ATS (10.6 ppg) since March 18, 2009 with at most one day of rest off a loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter. The Magic are 6-0-2 ATS (6.9 ppg) since December 31, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

Hornets at Mavericks – The Hornets are 10-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since March 29, 2000 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The League is 8-0-1 ATS (7.9 ppg) since February 26, 2008 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they attempted at least 10 fewer three pointers than their season-to-date average. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since February 27, 2006 at home with at least one day of rest off a win in which they trailed by 15+ points.

Wizards at Nets – The Wizards are 0-10 ATS (-4.8 ppg) since February 08, 2008 with at most one day of rest off a home loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since April 21, 1996 with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they had at least thirty assists.

Raptors at Thunder – The Raptors are 0-7 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since December 07, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Raptors are 0-7 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since November 26, 2008 when they lost their last two games and both were at home. The Thunder are 6-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since November 17, 2009 after a game in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

Clippers at Kings – The Clippers are 0-7 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since April 03, 1999 on the road after a road loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Clippers are 0-6 ATS (-15.4 ppg) since February 09, 2009 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-28-2010, 11:00 AM

Sunday's Tip Sheet

The Madness of March doesn’t officially heat up until the next couple weeks when most of the conference tournaments begin but gamblers following college basketball have already been attacking the books. The marathon of the season takes a slower pace on Sunday, with only 16 games on the card, but a handful of them are quality tilts. Let’s take a closer look at four contests that will be featured nationally on television.
Big East Barometer

When Connecticut (17-11 SU, 11-14 ATS) head coach Jim Calhoun returned to the sidelines after a leave of absence for medical reasons, his troops treated him with an embarrassing home loss to Cincinnati (48-60) on Feb. 13. Calhoun ripped up the team for their effort in a classic tirade and apparently his rant worked.

Since the setback, the Huskies have ripped off three straight wins and covers, which included impressive victories as underdogs against Villanova (84-75) and West Virginia (73-62). The offense has averaged 77.7 PPG during this stretch, which is a big improvement over their previous six contests (63.7 PPG).

On Sunday, the Huskies will get another stiff test at home when Louisville (18-10 SU, 8-15 ATS). According to the latest Bracketology, both schools are penciled into the field of 65 for the NCAA Tournament, but they’re each listed as a No. 12 seed.

Rick Pitino and the Cardinals stopped UConn 82-69 on Feb. 1 as 6 ½-point favorites in a wire-to-wire victory from Freedom Hall. Louisville drilled 10 bombs from 3-point land, which helped the combined 151 points easily jump ‘over’ the closing total of 144. Since this win and cover, the Cardinals are 4-2 SU but only 1-5 ATS in their last six.

Playing outside of Louisville (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) hasn’t been kind to Pitino’s kids this year and that includes a 2-4 mark both SU and ATS in Big East. UConn has produced a 14-3 SU record in Stoors this season, but they’ve only managed to go 6-9 ATS.

Total players should make a note that both Louisville and UConn enter this game with 5-1 ‘under’ runs in their last six spots.

Tip-off is set for 2:00 p.m. EST, and CBS will provide national coverage.

Moving forward in West Lafayette

The race for first place in the Big Ten heats up Sunday when Michigan State (21-7 SU, 10-15 ATS) faces Purdue (24-3 SU, 12-12 ATS) from West Lafayette. This will be the second game of a doubleheader on CBS, which starts at 4:00 p.m. EST.

Purdue took a major hit on Tuesday when its best player, Robbie Hummel, went down with a season-ending knee injury in the team’s 59-58 road victory at Minnesota. Brian Edwards broke the story on VI and got some in-depth answers on how the loss of Hummel will affect the betting board in Las Vegas. CLICK HERE.

The Boilermakers will look to sweep the Spartans on Sunday, after capturing a 76-64 win on Feb. 9 in East Lansing as three-point underdogs. Hummel had 15 points in the win, but he was overshadowed by other Purdue standouts, E’Twaun Moore (25 points, 6 assists) and JaJuan Johnson (19 points, 7 rebounds). The other pair of juniors might not get as much publicity as Hummel but they’re just as good.

Including Tuesday’s win against the Golden Gophers, the Boilermakers have now won 10 consecutive games (5-5 ATS), five of them coming at home. Purdue has only suffered one setback on its homecourt and that came on Jan. 12 to Ohio State (66-70).

The Spartans have dealt with their share of injuries this year as well, but head coach Tom Izzo has still managed to right the ship. The school has dropped seven games and five of them have come on road or neutral courts. In Big 10 encounters away from home, the Spartans have gone 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in these affairs.

Sticking with totals, the ‘under’ has been the right side in eight of the last 10 meetings between the Spartans and Boilermakers.

Road Tests in the ACC

Clemson at Florida State

Florida State (20-7 SU, 8-14 ATS) and Clemson (19-8 SU, 11-12 ATS) are both expected to earn bids to the upcoming NCAA Tournament but a better seed could be earned by the winner in this battle from Tallahassee.

The Seminoles will be looking to avenge a 77-67 road loss to the Tigers on Feb. 10 as five-point underdogs. Neither team shot lights out from the field in the contest, but Clemson was helped with a 29-of-38 performance form the free throw line. Prior to this defeat, FSU had won three in a row and four of the last five meetings against Clemson.

Another trend that was shaken up in the February meeting was the total. The combined 144 points easily eclipsed the closing number of 132, which saw the ‘over’ cash for just the second time in the last 10 battles between the ‘Noles and Tigers.

Clemson has struggled on the road in ACC play, going 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS, with the lone victory coming at N.C. State (73-70). The defense has given up 70-plus in four of the five setbacks, which included an 88-79 loss at Maryland this past Wednesday.

FSU owns a solid 12-2 record from Tallahassee but it has burnt gamblers with a 2-8 ATS mark. In the 10 games at home that featured a point-spread, the Seminoles have only won by 10 or more twice, the last instance happening two weeks ago against Boston College (62-47).

Fox Sports Network continues its Sunday double-header action with this tip beginning at 5:30 p.m. EST.

Duke at Virginia

The last game on Sunday’s board looks like a serious mismatch when fifth-ranked Duke (24-4 SU, 16-10 ATS) travels to Charlottesville for an ACC road battle against Virginia (14-12 SU, 10-11 ATS).

Mike Krzyzewski’s team hasn’t been great outside of Durham in true road contests (4-4 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) but his team does enter this tilt with seven straight victories and six of them have come by double digits. The Blue Devils have produced a 3-2-2 ATS record during this stretch.

While Duke has been on fire, UVA has been ice cold. Tony Bennett’s first year with the Cavaliers started out well but it’s been anything but lately. The team has dropped six in a row and eight of their last 10 and the two wins came against the two worst schools in the ACC, N.C. State (59-47) and North Carolina (75-60). During the recent losing skid, Virginia is 1-5 ATS and four of the losses have come by 12 or more points.

The head-to-head series between the pair has been lopsided, with Duke capturing nine of the last 10 encounters. The Blue Devils are only 4-5-1 ATS during this stretch but they have covered the last three against the Cavaliers. The ‘under’ is on a 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

If you’re looking for an angle to back Virginia in this situation, you could play the look-ahead spot with Duke traveling to Maryland on Wednesday but that’s a big if. Gametime is set for 7:45 p.m. EST and FSN will provide coverage.

**myrjimmy3** · 02-28-2010, 12:09 PM

gl bum

**vols fan** · 02-28-2010, 12:14 PM

Good luck Bum

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