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**StarDust Bum** · 02-25-2010, 07:53 PM

Thursday's Tips

The futures of many teams may come down to last night’s results in college basketball. Saint Louis and Minnesota blew golden opportunities to bolster their respective resumes, while Mississippi St. and Ole Miss kept their thinning at-large hopes alive with wins and fortunate covers for their backers.

Virginia Tech’s stock is falling after losing at Duke and then getting blasted at Boston College by an 80-60 count last night. Oklahoma St. had a chance similar to that of the Billikens and Gophers, but only for the first 25 minutes at Texas. Although the Cowboys were ahead of the number for much of the night, the Longhorns hit a late free throw to cover in a 69-59 win as nine-point favorites.

But the biggest news came out of Purdue's win at Minnesota. The victory was bittersweet for the Boilers, who appear to have lost junior forward Robbie Hummel for the rest of the season.

Looking to tonight, Kentucky will be looking to avenge its only loss of the year – at South Carolina. The Gamecocks come to Rupp Arena as a team that seems to be running on fumes. Also, gamblers get a late-night televised game from Spokane. Let’s look for some winners.

**South Carolina at Kentucky**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Kentucky (26-1 straight up, 14-11 against the spread) as a 14-point home favorite. As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Wildcats favored by 16 1/2 with a total of 145.

--South Carolina (14-12 SU, 9-14 ATS) put together its best effort of the season when the ‘Cats came to Columbia on Jan. 26. The Gamecocks pulled a shocker by beating UK 68-62 as seven-point home underdogs. Devan Downey was sensational all night, controlling the pace and outplaying Player of the Year candidate John Wall. Downey, the senior who transferred from Cincinnati back to his home state after Bob Huggins was pink slipped, scored 30 points, grabbed five rebounds, dished out three assists, made two steals and committed just a pair of turnovers against a relentless UK defensive effort aimed to stop him.

--Darrin Horn’s team has lost three consecutive games both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 63-55 loss to Tennessee as a 1 ½-point home underdog. Brandis Raley-Ross had a team-high 16 points for the ‘Cocks. Downey had 15 points but shot just 4-of-18 from the field.

--John Calipari’s squad is unbeaten in 17 home games, but it has been a far different story for UK backers. The ‘Cats are just 7-8 versus the number in 15 lined home assignments. They are 1-3 ATS in four games as double-digit home favorites against SEC foes.

--South Carolina is in its first double-digit ‘dog situation of the season. The ‘Cocks were 9 ½-point ‘dogs at Tennessee and got destroyed. In addition, they lost at 66-57 at Ole Miss as 8 ½-point puppies.

--The ‘over’ is 13-11 overall for UK, 9-5 in its home games at Rupp Arena. On the other hand, the ‘under’ is 15-7 overall for South Carolina.

--ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Santa Clara at Gonzaga**

--LVSC opened Gonzaga (22-5 SU, 13-9-2 ATS) as a 21-point favorite. As of early this morning, most spots had the Bulldogs at 21 with a total of 139.

--Santa Clara (11-18 SU, 11-13 ATS) hung in there against Mark Few’s team when these WCC rivals met back on Jan. 28. The Bulldogs emerged with a 71-64 win, but the Broncos covered rather comfortably as 12-point home underdogs. Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray scored 16 points apiece, while Elias Harris had 16 points and 14 rebounds for the winners.

--Gonzaga was the victim of an upset at Loyola Marymount last Thursday. The Lions captured a 74-66 win as 11 ½-point home underdogs. The ‘Zags responded by punishing Pepperdine 72-54 Saturday as 16 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ Bouldin had a team-high 18 points against the Waves.

--Gonzaga has won 11 of 12 home games, compiling a 4-4-1 ATS record. The Bulldogs have been double-digit home favorites four times, going 1-2-1 ATS in such spots.

--Santa Clara is 3-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog, 4-1 ATS when catching 9 ½ points or more.

--The ‘over’ is 15-9 overall for Gonzaga, 7-2 in its home assignments.

--The ‘under’ is on a 7-1 run for the Broncos, who have seen the ‘under’ go 14-7 overall.

--The ‘over’ has cashed a lucrative 15-3 clip in the last 18 head-to-head encounters between these WCC enemies.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--As of early this morning, most books had Vandy as an 11 ½-point favorite for tonight’s home game vs. Georgia. The Dawgs, who are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs, beat up on the Commodores 72-58 when they met in Athens a few weeks ago. ESPNU will have the telecast from Memorial Gymnasium in Music City at 7:00 p.m. ET.

--I mentioned how Ole Miss and Mississippi St. essentially earned ‘stay-alive wins’ last night. I didn’t want to include Marquette in a category with the schools from the Magnolia State because I believe the Golden Eagles are in much better position than the Rebels and Bulldogs. Buzz Williams team went into the Big Apple last night and collected a 63-61 win. Even better, Marquette took the money as a 1 ½-point road favorite.

--With last night’s cover against OSU, Texas stopped the bleeding for its backers that had been exposed to a 2-12 ATS slump.

--Maryland rallied from nine-point halftime deficit to top Clemson 88-79 as a 4 ½-point home favorite. The Terps improved to 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. With senior guards like Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes, Gary Williams’ team is going to be an extremely tough out in March.

--As of early this morning, most books had Duke as an 18-point home favorite for tonight’s home game against Tulsa. Tip-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2. The Blue Devils are unbeaten in 15 home games with a 10-3-1 spread mark.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-25-2010, 08:00 PM

Inside the Paint - Thursday

The one thing you learn when wagering on the NBA is things often balance out in the long run. If you follow the league nightly, in particular the last three days, then you would strongly agree with the statement.
Bettors taking the points or what some call “Dog Players” profited very nicely on Monday and Tuesday as the underdogs went 9-4 straight up and 11-2 against the spread.

Wednesday’s card featured 11 games and the favorites bounced back with an eye opening 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS mark. Portland was the lone underdog to win outright, capturing a 101-87 decision over Toronto at Air Canada Centre, on zero days rest too.

Tonight’s slate features three contests, including the weekly double-header on TNT. Cleveland visits Boston in the first showdown, while Denver and Golden State conclude the night from the Bay Area.

Cleveland (44-14 SU, 28-30 ATS) at Boston (36-19 SU, 21-34 ATS)

Two of the top contenders in the East square off from TD Garden when the Cavaliers and Celtics battle at 8:05 p.m. ET. This is a tough game to gauge since both teams are in a bit of funk, especially when you look at their numbers versus the point-spread.

Cleveland started the second-half of the regular season with three straight losses both straight up and against the spread but it stopped the bleeding on Tuesday with a 105-95 win against New Orleans. The Cavs failed to cover as 11 ½-point underdogs and are now in a 1-6 ATS slump in their last seven.

Despite the recent speed bump for Cleveland, it’s hard to ignore how good Mike Brown’s team has been on the road (19-10 SU, 16-13 ATS). And when you look at Boston’s home record (16-9 SU, 6-19 ATS), you can understand why the Cavs have opened up as 1 ½-point favorites in tonight’s battle. The number has bounced around a little bit but Cleveland is laying 2 1/2-points at most books.

The line has moved back in Boston’s favor, even though the team is just 5-5 in its last 10 at home. It’s fair to say the Celtics are a bully club this year, often beating the weaker squads but failing to step up when it matters. The five losses during this recent stretch came against the Bulls, Hawks, Mavericks, Lakers and Magic. With Cleveland owning the best record in the league, tonight’s game is a nice barometer.

The two teams haven’t met since opening night, when Boston held off Cleveland 95-89 as a five-point underdog on the road. The victory for the Celtics was big for a couple reasons because it ended an 11-game losing streak in Cleveland for Doc Rivers’ team and it snapped a 16-game skid by visiting teams in the head-to-head series.

The first meeting on Oct. 27 saw the combined 184 points barely slide ‘over’ the closing number if 183 ½. Low totals have been common in this series, but that could change tonight. The Cavs have watched the ‘over’ cash in six of their last eight, and the Celtics’ defense didn’t look good recently in a loss at Denver (105-114) on Sunday or in Wednesday’s close-call victory at home over New York (110-106) on Wednesday. Tonight, the total is hovering between 192 and 193 and that's the highest 'over/under' listed in the past 18 encounters.

The Celtics could be without Paul Pierce (thumb) on Thursday and Marquis Daniels (flu) is ‘questionable’ as well.

Denver (37-19 SU, 26-28 ATS) at Golden State (16-40 SU, 31-24 ATS)

The fourth and final meeting between the Nuggets and Warriors takes place tonight from Oakland and if this encounter is anything like the first three, then get ready to watch the scoreboard get lit up. The three previous battles saw both clubs put up 242, 245 and 241 combined points. Denver was the victor in all of the battles, but Golden State managed to cover two, including a 123-122 loss on Jan. 15 as a 5 ½-point underdog on Jan. 15 from Oracle Arena. The Nuggets opened as six-point favorites and the total is hovering between 227 and 228 points.

Twelve of Golden State’s 16 victories this season have come at home, and Don Nelson’s club owns a positive 16-13 record against the spread on their hardwood. Consistency has been a major issue for the Warriors and it’s showed in their last two home games. After rallying past the Hawks (108-104) on Sunday, the team was bounced by Philadelphia (110-102) in wire-to-wire fashion. The group has averaged 111 PPG, but also given up 110 PPG. The ‘over’ has gone 15-14.

Denver started the All-Star break with two solid victories against Eastern Conference contenders, beating Cleveland (118-116) on the road last Thursday before stopping Boston (114-105) at home on Sunday. Unfortunately, George Karl’s team had a hiccup in between on Friday, which resulted in a setback at Washington (97-107).

Most would agree that Golden State is on the same level with Washington as is Detroit, who visits the Pepsi Center on Friday to face the Nuggets. With that being said, does Denver come with its “A” game tonight and run the Warriors out of their own building? Even though the team hasn’t been 100 percent for the majority of their games, a 13-14 road record is disappointing. As a road favorite, Denver is 4-11 against the number.

The problem outside of Colorado has been the offense, which is averaging nine points less (112-103) than what it does at home. This drop has reflected in totals too, with the ‘under’ producing a 16-11 mark.

Another angle to weigh tonight is the let-down and look-ahead spot for Denver, who is off the victory against the Celtics plus it has a big showdown against the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. It’s still two days away but a win at Staples Center would help the Nuggets inch closer to the top seed in the West, plus they would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker over L.A. as well.

This will mark the 15th back-to-back set for Denver this season. Betting the Nuggets on zero days rest (6-8 SU, 5-7-2 ATS) hasn’t been a good investment this year, but backing the club in the first game has been very profitable (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS). The ‘under’ has gone 10-4 over this run.

Gamblers can follow along at 10:35 p.m. ET.

Buck it up!

Don’t look now but Milwaukee on fire! Scott Skiles team started the second-half of the season with a demoralizing home loss to Houston (99-127), which saw the Rockets hit 16 bombs from 3-point land. Since the setback, Milwaukee has responded with four straight wins and covers. Dare I say it but Andrew Bogut is playing great basketball, John Salmons was a nice pickup and this team has a good core of veterans in Jerry Stackhouse, Luke Ridnour and Kurt Thomas to keep things positive.

I was surprised to see Milwaukee play five games this week, which is the most I’ve seen all year. So far, two wins albeit against the Knicks and Hornets. Tonight, they head to Indiana but they’ve already defeated the Pacers twice this season. After this game, the team heads to Miami on Saturday and then back up to Atlanta on Sunday. It’s hard to fade a hot club but those spots will look very tempting.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-25-2010, 08:02 PM

Trend Report - Thursday

Cavaliers at Celtics – The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since March 10, 2008 when they had at least ten more assists in their previous game than in the game before. The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS (-7.0 ppg) since March 21, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since March 01, 2009 at home after a game in which they had at least thirty assists.

Bucks at Pacers – The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since December 02, 2009 after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Bucks are 0-7 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since January 27, 2001 as a favorite when they have won and covered their last four games. The Pacers are 6-0-1 ATS (6.4 ppg) since January 02, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

Nuggets at Warriors – The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since December 14, 2009 as a favorite after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since November 06, 2006 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field.

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