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**moondog22** · 02-23-2010, 05:21 PM

good luck Bum

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2010, 07:48 PM

Super Tuesday

Are Billy Donovan and the Gators headed back to the NCAA Tournament? Some folks quickly forget that Florida has missed the Big Dance the past two years and that comes after winning back-to-back national championships.
“Florida appears to be in good shape right now, but of course, these things can change rapidly. When you look at the Gators’ last four games, I think the first three are toss-ups and we can most likely chalk up an ‘L’ for the trip to Rupp Arena against Kentucky. As long as it wins at Georgia and splits the two home games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt, it should be in good shape regardless of what happens at the SEC Tournament. Now if the Gators lose three of four down the stretch, they can probably salvage a bid with a win and decent loss (non blowout) at the SEC Tourney,” explained VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards.

The home game against Tennessee happens tonight from the O’Connell Center, one of the tougher places to play in college basketball.

Florida isn’t alone as the only bubble team left standing. Just ask Louisville and Illinois. According to Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet, they should both receive at-large bids if Selection Sunday happened two days ago. Marshall believes the pair has a good shot facing one another in his latest Bracketology Update.

All three of those schools play on Tuesday, and two of them are laying points against ranked opponents, which is usually a hint by the oddsmakers.

Let’s take a closer look!

Georgetown (18-7 SU, 11-10 ATS) at Louisville (18-9 SU, 8-14 ATS)

Even though the Hoyas are ranked 11th in the latest AP Top 25, the Cardinals are clearly playing better basketball at this point in the season and that’s why they opened up as four-point favorites. Louisville closed January on a bad note by losing three of four, but there was optimism for head coach Rick Pitino and company. All of the setbacks were on the road and they were by a combined 11 points. Since then, the Cardinals have gone 5-1 (2-4 ATS) and that includes three wins at Freedom Hall, where tonight’s game takes place.

The Hoyas haven’t played since last Thursday when they fell to Syracuse (71-75) as a two-point home favorite. The game wasn’t as close as the final score until the end when Georgetown made a late rally which came up short. One of the weaknesses on the Hoyas is the lack of an inside presence on defense and it’s shown lately. In the last seven games, G-Town has given up 70-plus in every game, which has translated into a 3-4 record both SU and ATS.

Due to Big East scheduling, this will be the only meeting this season. Since the Cards entered the conference, they have gone 3-1 SU and ATS against the Hoyas. The total has gone 2-2.

After losing its four battles of the season against ranked opponents, Pitino and company have won and covered both of their last two encounters against Top 25 schools. Will Tuesday be the third? Find out on ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. EST.

Illinois (17-10 SU, 10-15 ATS) at Michigan (13-13 SU, 11-11 ATS)

The Big 10 takes center stage on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. EST, when the Fighting Illini and Wolverines square off in Ann Arbor. Illinois might be viewed as a “Bubble Team” but VegasInsider.com handicapper Matt Fargo points out some good notes on the squad from Champaign.

He said, “The Illini just concluded a stretch of four straight games against Top 15 opponents so the fact that they went 2-2 isn’t that bad. With a game now finally not against a ranked team, Illinois has a good shot to bounce back and there will be no letdown following two straight losses.”

The two wins came against Michigan State (78-73) and Wisconsin (63-56), with the setbacks against Ohio State (53-72) and Purdue (65-75). Even though the Illini came up 10 points short to the Boilermakers last Saturday in West Lafayette, the team did have a three-game road winning streak intact before the loss.

Michigan’s chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament are shot unless it wins the Big 10 tournament. The NIT is a possibility but the school needs to finish at .500 or better, and that’s going to be tough too. Of the 13 wins for the Wolverines, nine have come at home and they do own a couple against quality opponents in Ohio State (73-64) and Connecticut ((68-63).

Despite the disparity in records, Michigan opened as a three-point favorite but the number has dipped a half-point at most books. The total is hovering right around 127 and that seems fair considering Michigan has seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 at home.

Tennessee (20-6 SU, 10-12 ATS) at Florida (19-8 SU, 12-10 ATS)

Bruce Pearl and the Volunteers have owned this series, winning six straight against the Gators, which includes a 61-60 victory in Knoxville on Jan. 31. Tennessee failed to cover as an eight-point favorite and could’ve easily lost the game if it wasn’t for a couple near misses at the end by Florida’s frontcourt.

Bruce Pearl and the Vols have won six straight against the Gators. (AP Images)

Even though the Vols have won both of their last two trips to Gainesville, this year’s squad is just 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road. Pearl’s team is coming off a solid 63-55 win at South Carolina on Saturday, which stopped a two-game losing skid on the road.

Florida owns a respectable 12-3 SU and 5-6 ATS mark at home, but none of the victories really stand out and two of the three losses came against quality opponents in Kentucky (77-89) and Xavier (64-76). It’s fair to say that Tennessee is nestled somewhere between that pair.

The Vols and Gators were once known as high-scoring teams, especially with the up-tempo styles of Pearl and Donovan. However, both coaches are lacking the sharpshooters on the outside and it has certainly hurt their production this season. Tennessee (32.4%) and Florida are ranked (30.9%) 10th and last in the SEC this year from 3-point land.

Florida has been installed as a three-point ‘chalk’ for Tuesday while the total is listed at 136, which is the lowest number in the previous 10 encounters between the two. Be sure to follow the expected slugfest at 9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.

Look Ahead Spots?

It’s hard to make a case against Syracuse tonight when it plays Providence, considering what the school has done outside of the Carrier Dome this season and the Friars recent fade. Jim Boeheim’s team has gone 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in road or neutral games, plus Providence has dropped six consecutive (2-4 ATS) contests. However, make a note that Syracuse will host No. 7 Villanova in a national primetime showdown this Saturday. The Orange are laying eight against the Friars and the total has opened at 162, which has been close to the norm for Providence’s up-and-down game.

Another possible road trap on Tuesday happens in the Mountain West Conference when Colorado State welcomes No. 10 New Mexico. Head coach Steve Alford and the Lobos have won 11 straight (7-3-1 ATS) and sit atop the conference standings. Awaiting them on Saturday is a matchup in Provo against No. 13 Brigham Young. New Mexico opened as an 8 ½-point road favorite against CSU. Gamblers can tune into this game at 10:00 p.m. EST on The Mountain Network. If you’re looking for more insight on the MWC, check out Joe Nelson’s column Mountain West Matters.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2010, 07:49 PM

Mountain West Matters

The NCAA Tournament went poorly for the Mountain West Conference last season but this year the league appears to have two teams in line for solid seeding in the Big Dance with two more fighting for at-large positions and the automatic berth from the conference tournament. Twice in the last five years the Mountain West has had a team in the Sweet 16 so this conference is capable of being dangerous even though the league’s reputation has suffered in recent years.
Last season Utah won the automatic bid but was stuck in a tough 5/12 match-up with Arizona, losing by 13 despite being the superior seed. While many felt Arizona did not deserve to be in the tournament, the Wildcats were a talented team and opened as the favorite in the match-up, eventually playing its way to Sweet 16. In 2009, BYU was matched up with Texas A&M in an 8/9 match-up for the second straight year and it again proved to be a tough game for the Cougars, falling 79-66. Utah’s #5 seed was the highest seed for a Mountain West team in the past five seasons and this year both BYU and New Mexico could reach that level or higher as both sit at 25-3 while being well regarded in both national polls.

The Mountain West has had a few recent examples of dangerous postseason teams with UNLV winning the first two rounds in 2007, beating Georgia Tech and #2 seed Wisconsin before losing narrowly to Oregon. That year BYU also played tough with a Xavier squad that nearly beat eventual finalist Ohio State the following game. In 2005 #6 seeded Utah advanced to the Sweet 16 as well with wins over Utah and Oklahoma before falling against Kentucky. The league also has some rich history with great runs by Utah in the late ‘90s and UNLV in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s. This could be another strong year for the Mountain West in the NCAA tournament.

New Mexico won the first meeting with BYU, a matchup between the top two contenders 76-72 at home. Both teams have two losses in conference play with a meeting this Saturday in Provo. New Mexico has momentum with eleven straight wins entering this week but there have been a few close calls, including OT wins against San Diego State and Utah as well as a surprisingly narrow win at home against Air Force last weekend. New Mexico certainly has produced a worthy resume for solid seeding consideration as there are several decent quality wins, beating California, Louisiana Tech, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Dayton, and Creighton in non-conference play. The two conference losses came against the two bubble teams in this league and the only somewhat bad loss came on the road against Oral Roberts.

BYU gets the re-match game at home so they should be the favorites to win the regular season title and the top seed in the conference tournament. New Mexico currently has a slightly higher RPI than BYU but some of the other computer numbers like the Pomeroy Ratings favor the Cougars as the superior team. The only non-conference loss for BYU came at Utah State and that will be the calling card win for the Aggies as they maintain their own bubble hopes. BYU has not lost at home all season as they also lost on the road at UNLV in addition to the narrow loss at New Mexico. In non-conference play there are not many high quality wins but several decent quality wins and many of those games came away from home. Highlight wins came at home against Arizona State, at Arizona and at UTEP, as well as neutral games with Nevada and Nebraska.

San Diego State did not look like a NCAA tournament team for most of the season but the Aztecs have gained some late season momentum. The Aztecs split with New Mexico this season and this week’s game at BYU could be a critical game for the at-large bid chances for this team. The biggest issue for San Diego State will be the lack of non-conference wins as wins over Drake and Arizona did not pan out to be as impressive as they once looked. St. Mary’s and Pacific could well be tournament teams but losses to those teams will not help as those teams are not pulling enough weight to make a really strong case for this team. A conference loss at Wyoming will also be crippling for the Aztecs so another marquee win is probably needed this week and possibly as well as in the conference tournament.

UNLV has slid back to the bubble with recent three-game losing streak. The losses to New Mexico and San Diego State could probably be justified but for the second time this season the Rebels lost to Utah. UNLV has a big win against Louisville early in the season to help its cause and losses to Kansas State and USC do not hurt the resume at all and actually gives UNLV a schedule strength edge against many of its bubble peers. The Aztecs also have wins over Arizona, SMU, Weber State, and conference wins against the top two teams winning at New Mexico and at home against BYU. UNLV will be heavily favored in its final three games so the Rebels should actually finish in fine shape barring a major upset, likely going 11-5 in a decent quality league and having enough ammunition to get a bid. The conference tournament is also in Las Vegas so the Rebels should be in a favorable position to be a sleeper for the automatic bid.

By most measures the Mountain West rates as the top non-BCS league so the selection committee should give the bubble teams some benefit of the doubt. In year where the major conference teams will not hog the at-large bids due to limited depth in the Big Ten and ACC as well as a very down Pac-10. Barring major collapses, the NCAA tournament should feature the best Mountain West representation in years and the league will be a viable threat to have a team still playing after the opening weekend.

UNLV and San Diego State do not have a huge margin for error but overall both teams look like they will end up in good position for the NCAA tournament. San Diego State can basically clinch a spot with an upset over BYU but could also probably survive a loss with a strong finish and a good conference tournament showing. Currently the Bracketology pundits at ESPN has New Mexico as #3 seed, BYU as a #4 seed, and UNLV as a #8 seed while San Diego State has the undesirable designation as the first team out. That all will change and assuming the bubble does not squeeze too hard with upsets in conference tournaments, all four teams can get in making a great year for the Mountain West.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2010, 08:06 PM

Trend Report - Tuesday

Hornets at Cavaliers – The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since March 27, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since November 21, 2001 at home with at least one day of rest off a loss as an away dog in which they led at the end of the third quarter.

Knicks at Celtics – The Knicks are 0-7-1 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since March 10, 2008 after a game at home in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted. The Celtics are 0-10 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since November 01, 2009 at home after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Celtics are 0-9 ATS (-5.9 ppg) since March 04, 2009 after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

Lakers at Grizzlies – The Lakers are 9-0 ATS (14.0 ppg) since April 08, 2005 on the road when seeking revenge for a 1-3 point loss. The League is 11-0-1 ATS (10.2 ppg) since January 04, 2009 as a home dog with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they had at least 12 steals. The Grizzlies are 9-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since February 18, 2003 at home off a road win in which they trailed by 10+ points.

Timberwolves at Heat – The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since February 17, 2009 after a home loss in which their DPS was positive. The Heat are 7-0 ATS (13.6 ppg) since January 23, 2004 at home with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent.

Pistons at Kings – The Pistons are 7-0 ATS (14.3 ppg) since November 08, 2005 on the road with at least one day of rest after a home win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since April 11, 2003 on the road with at most one day of rest off an overtime win. The Kings are 0-6 ATS (-12.3 ppg) since February 11, 2007 after winning the previous matchup on the road in which Kevin Martin was the Kings' high scorer.

Trailblazers at Nets – The Trailblazers are 10-0 ATS (5.0 ppg) since November 27, 1996 on the road with at most one day of rest off a loss in which they led by double digits at the end of the first quarter. The Trailblazers are 9-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) since December 05, 2006 when they lost their last two games and both were at home. The Nets are 9-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since January 31, 2006 after a loss in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them.

Suns at Thunder – The League is 9-0-1 ATS (10.6 ppg) since April 16, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they attempted at least 10 fewer three pointers than their season-to-date average.

76ers at Warriors – The 76ers are 8-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since November 14, 2009 on the road after a game in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since February 10, 2009 when facing a team that covered by double digits against them in their previous same-season meeting on the road.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2010, 08:07 PM

Tuesday Tips

The Tuesday night NBA card has eight games on the slate for gamblers to wager on. The Cavs try to end a three-game skid, while the Thunder looks to stay red-hot against the Suns. We'll start things off in Cleveland with the suddenly slumping Cavs hosting the Hornets.

Hornets (30-26 SU, 28-28 ATS) at Cavs (43-14 SU, 28-28-1 ATS)

One week ago, the Cavs were the hottest team in the NBA, owning a 13-game winning streak. Since the All-Star Break, Cleveland is the only team in the league that has not covered a game, going 0-3 both SU/ATS. The Hornets invade Quicken Loans Arena, as New Orleans has suddenly won two straight.

Antawn Jamison makes his home debut for the Cavs following road losses to the Bobcats and Magic. Cleveland is 3-0 ATS this season coming off a three straight non-covers, winning each game by double-digits. The Cavs are 5-3 ATS the last eight at home, but are just 3-3 ATS the last six when laying double-digits at the "Q."

The Hornets went 3-1 SU/ATS on their four-game homestand, including wins over the Celtics and Rockets. New Orleans has been money as a road underdog recently, compiling a 6-0 ATS mark the last six when receiving points away from the Big Easy.

The Cavs have finished 'over' the total in five of the last six, but have allowed at least 100 points in each of the last four contests. The Hornets are just 1-6 ATS the previous seven games on the front end of a back-to-back, as New Orleans heads to Milwaukee on Wednesday.

The home team is 5-1 SU/ATS the last six meetings, as the Cavs topped the Hornets last January at the "Q," 92-78 as 2 ½-point favorites.

Lakers (42-14 SU, 25-29-2 ATS) at Grizzlies (28-27 SU, 29-25-1 ATS)

The Champs look to get Kobe Bryant back in the lineup as the Lakers embark on a two-game road trip through the Southwest Division. The first stop takes place in Memphis, battling a Grizzlies team that has dropped four straight games at home. Coincidentally, the last time the Grizzlies were victorious at FedEx Forum, they topped the Lakers, 95-93 back on February 1.

The Lakers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS with Bryant resting his sprained ankle, including road victories at Portland and Utah. L.A.'s defense has stepped up without Bryant (or at least their pace has slowed down), finishing 'under' the total in each of the last five contests. Phil Jackson's club has limited ten of their past 11 opponents to 100 points or less, with the Nuggets dropping 126 on the Lakers back on February 5.

Since knocking off the Lakers to start the month, the Grizzlies are 2-6 SU/ATS, including all four home defeats coming by double-digits. Memphis needed a monster rally to knock off lowly New Jersey on Sunday, holding an opponent to less than 100 points for the first time in seven games.

The two-point victory over the Lakers ended a five-game winning streak Los Angeles had over Memphis dating back to the start of last season. The Lakers are just 4-8 ATS this season when laying 5 ½ points or less.

Suns (34-23 SU, 31-26 ATS) at Thunder (33-21 SU, 33-21 ATS)

Oklahoma City owns the longest current winning streak in the league. Yes, the Oklahoma City Thunder has won nine in a row, looking to extend its streak against Phoenix. The Suns haven't been too shabby as of late, going 8-2 SU/ATS over the last ten contests.

The Thunder has cashed during the streak, putting together a 5-2 ATS mark the last seven wins. However, OKC failed to cover in close victories over New York and Minnesota on the road. The Thunder continues to knock off solid competition at the Ford Center, beating the Mavs, Nuggets, and Hawks over the last month.

Steve Nash is not expected to play for the Suns, as the former MVP is out with abdominal and back pain. Goran Dragic will get the start at point guard for Phoenix, the first time Nash hasn't started all season. The Suns are 4-1 ATS the last five as a road underdog, but their defense has also stepped up, nailing the 'under' in eight straight games.

The Thunder outgunned the Suns in Phoenix, 117-113 on December 23, as OKC easily cashed as 8 ½-point 'dogs. Oklahoma City will have to do a better job slowing down Amar'e Stoudmire, who lit up the Thunder for 35 points and 14 rebounds.

What else to watch for:

-- The late games aren't spectacular, but there are still solid wagering opportunities. The Kings return home to host the Pistons, as Sacramento looks for its first win after the All-Star Break. The Kings finished off a three-game road trip at 0-3 SU/ATS, while averaging just 88.5 ppg in losses to the Clippers and Suns. Sacramento is 3-10-1 ATS the last 13 at Arco Arena, but the Kings did knock off the Pistons at the Palace, 103-97 as four-point 'dogs on February 10. The Pistons are 5-13 ATS as an underdog of 5 ½ points or less, so tread lightly with Detroit.

-- The Sixers head out west to Oracle Arena to battle the Warriors. Golden State is coming off a huge victory at national television over Atlanta, rallying from an 18-point deficit to shock the Hawks, 108-104. Philadelphia is fresh off an embarrassing 122-90 loss at Chicago on Saturday. The Sixers are a solid 6-1 ATS this season as an underdog of a double-digit loss. The Warriors own a 1-5 ATS mark the last six at home when facing a team with at least one day of rest, as the lone win was the comeback over Atlanta.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2010, 11:50 PM

Phoenix - 8:00 PM ET Phoenix +6.5 500 ( POD )
Oklahoma City - Under 204 500
( WINNER )

Georgetown - 7:00 PM ET Georgetown +4 500 ( BIG EAST DOG )
Louisville - ( WINNER )

Kansas St. - 8:00 PM ET Kansas St. -5.5 500 ( BIG 12 BLOWOUT )
Texas Tech - ( WINNER )

Philadelphia - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -1 500
Golden State - Under 217.5 500 ( TOTAL OF THE NIGHT ) ??

New Mexico - 10:00 PM ET Colorado St. +7.5 500 MT. WEST SHOCKER ) ??
Colorado St. - Under 134.5 300

**StarDust Bum** · 02-24-2010, 01:15 AM

New Mexico - 10:00 PM ET Colorado St. +7.5 500 MT. WEST SHOCKER ) ( WINNER )

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The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets + Pod's !

The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets + Pod's !

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