Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 02-22-2010, 05:50 PM

Breaking Down Big Monday

This week’s edition of Big Monday brings us two of the nation’s best teams. It also gives us a pair of programs that we’re used to seeing being up in the rankings, but are having a fairly lean year. Let’s take a quick look at both battles on the hardwood.

West Virginia at Connecticut – 7:00 p.m. EST

West Virginia (21-5 straight up, 10-15 against the spread) might be in the Top 10 as of this writing, but a pair of losses to ranked teams like the Wildcats and Panthers shows they may not be ready for the big time.

The Mountaineers did fire right back with consecutive wins on the road against Providence and at home versus Seton Hall. Bettors taking Bob Huggins’ club in the last two tests have walked away with ripped up tickets. Nobody should be surprised by that since they are only 3-8 in their last 11 games.

Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones both led West Virginia with 16 points apiece and combined for 15 rebounds. Jones is averaging 13.7 points per game, while Ebanks has scored 12.1 PPG this season.

Connecticut (16-11 SU, 10-14-1 ATS) hasn’t had the season that they thought they would have at this point. They could pin some of the blame on losing Jim Calhoun on the bench for a little bit. That would make sense as the Huskies are 2-1 SU and ATS since he returned from his medical leave on Feb. 11.

The Huskies had their hands full in the first-half in Piscataway against Rutgers with just a 31-28 halftime lead. Bettors were able to come back strong on UConn for a second-half play as a 3 ½-point favorite for the final period. And Calhoun’s club helped out by outscoring the Scarlet Knights 45-30 in the second-half to win 76-58.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this game as a pick ‘em.

West Virginia has fared well in true road affairs at 6-3 SU, but 4-5 ATS for our concerns. The ‘over’ is a solid 6-3 in those contests.

The home court has been an advantage for UConn as they’re 13-3 SU in Storrs this season. Gamblers haven’t thought much of the Huskies at home this year with a 5-9 ATS mark. The ‘over’ is only 7-6 as well.

If recent history will repeat itself, then the ‘Neers are the play. The road team has won and covered the last two meetings between these clubs. The ‘over’ has been a safe play to make as it’s 5-2 in the past seven head-to-head matchups.

Oklahoma at Kansas – 9:00 p.m. EST

I think we all knew that Oklahoma (13-13 SU, 9-14 ATS) would have a rough first year without Blake Griffin. Yet, this was not as bad as we thought the Sooners would have it. Oklahoma has dropped four straight games both SU and ATS.

The expectation for the Sooners was that Willie Warren would help make a difference after coming back from mononucleosis. He did score 18 points coming off of the bench in OU’s 77-67 setback last Wednesday. Warren never made the floor on Saturday against Kansas State in an 83-68 beating. Although, I’m not sure he would have done a damn bit of good considering they shot 43 percent from the field after winning the rebounding battle (33-26). Even worse is that they had 14-8 advantage on the offensive glass.

Kansas (26-1 SU, 10-13 ATS) hasn’t looked back after its 76-68 loss on the road to the Volunteers on Jan. 10. Since that defeat, the Jayhawks have won 12 straight games. The bettors that have backed them since that setback have gotten used to eating Top Ramen as they’re 4-7-1 ATS.

LVSC is expecting a blowout as they’ve listed Kansas as a heavy 21 ½-point home “chalk.”

Even though OU has been pretty good over the past few years, KU has been the better team when they’ve faced off. The Jayhawks are on a 5-0 SU run, covering in the last three games. In fact, the home team is 7-3 SU and ATS over since the 2001-2002 campaign.

Oklahoma is only 1-9 SU and 2-7 ATS when playing in true road tests this season.

Kansas has gone a pristine 16-0 SU in Lawrence this season. Yet they’re just 6-7 ATS in those games at home that were on the board. The ‘over’ is 7-5 as far as totals players are concerned.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-22-2010, 05:51 PM

9 Teams to Watch

Get your dancing shoes out. With just three weeks remaining in the regular season portion of the 2009-10 college basketball campaign talk of the NCAA Tournament becomes more and more a matter of serious discussion.

For teams that are sitting ‘on the bubble’ it becomes crunch time and with it the pressure begins to mount. As Elvis said, “it’s now or never.” And while there are always post-season conference tournaments for most teams to impress the NCAA tournament committee, the truth is most teams’ fate are virtually sealed well before these events tip off. Let me explain.

Outside of winning a conference tournament the fact of the matter is unless teams own both a winning overall and winning conference record for the season the chance of being invited to the ‘dance’ is slim and remote. Teams who post 20 wins for the season often times find that unless they were a ‘double-winner’ the NCAA is likely to kick them to the curb. And for a lot of the right reasons, we might add. They recognize the fact that 20-win teams that ended up the season with a losing record in conference play likely picked up the bulk of the victories against inferior non-conference competition and it just doesn’t cut the mustard in the panel’s eyes.

With this thought in mind, I present of group of nine teams from lined conferences that all have a shot at 20 wins this season who are all currently .500 or worse in conference play in games through February 21. They are:

ACC – Georgia Tech
Big East: Connecticut, Notre Dame, South Florida
BIG 10 –Minnesota, Northwestern
CUSA: Southern Mississippi
Missouri Valley: Missouri State
SEC – Mississippi

Notice that any of the nine teams outlined above could catch fire and close out the season a double-winner (20 wins and winning conference log). Their performance to date, however, says otherwise. Collectively, this unit has posted a sterling 96-20 SU and 54-30 ATS outside the conference this season. In conference play, though, they are just a combined 55-67 SU and 59-58-5 ATS.

Worse, in conference games as a ‘pick’ or favorite these wannabes are just 28-35-2 ATS this season, including 6-14-1 ATS when facing an opponent off a spread loss of five or more points. Put these same group of guys up against a foe that scored 77 or less points in its last game and they nearly drop off the radar screen, going 2-13-1 ATS this season.

Thus, unless they suddenly change their ways – and I can't recall the last time a leopard changed its spots – its likely this group of nine will perform not-so-great under the pressure of laying points and having to win over the course of the next three weeks. The heat is on. Let’s watch and see…

**StarDust Bum** · 02-22-2010, 06:22 PM

Trend Report - Monday

Bobcats at Clippers – The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS (4.8 ppg) since December 06, 2004 on the road versus the Clippers. The Clippers are 0-10 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since February 11, 1997 after a double digit win in which they had more turnovers than assists.

Hawks at Jazz – The League is 0-8 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since November 19, 2008 at home with at most one day of rest after a road win in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Jazz are 8-0-1 ATS (10.9 ppg) since February 02, 2009 when their opponent is playing in at least their fourth straight road game.

Bucks at Knicks – The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (3.8 ppg) since November 07, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Bucks are 6-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since January 17, 2003 on the road with at least one day of rest off a win in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points. The Knicks are 8-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since January 19, 2008 when seeking revenge for a home loss in which they led at the half. The League is 8-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since January 11, 2009 with at most one day of rest off an overtime home loss in which they held a double digit lead.

Pacers at Mavericks – The Pacers are 9-0-1 ATS (7.8 ppg) since February 04, 1998 after a double digit road win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since February 10, 2008 after a game at home in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.

Bulls at Wizards – The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since November 18, 2008 after a double digit win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Wizards are 0-9 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since January 07, 2009 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-22-2010, 06:23 PM

Monday's NBA Tips

Bettors have a five-game NBA slate to work with Monday. Let’s take an in-depth look at both games out West and then touch on the others in Bonus Nuggets.

**Hawks at Jazz**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Utah (36-19 straight up, 34-18-3 against the spread) as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 199 ½. As of early this morning, the Jazz were still at 5 1/2 with the total reduced to 197. Bettors can take the Hawks to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

--Atlanta (34-20 SU, 33-21 ATS) started the week in Tinseltown, stroking the Clippers 1110-92 as a seven-point road favorite. Al Horford was the catalyst in 33 minutes of work, scoring 31 points to go with six rebounds, four assists, three steals and just one turnover. The two-time national-title winner at the University of Florida, who earned his first All-Star Game invite this year, made 12-of-15 shots from the field and 7-of-9 at the charity stripe.

--Mike Woodson’s team couldn’t follow up on its win at Staples Center, losing 88-80 Friday night at Phoenix. The Suns took the cash as four-point home favorites. Josh Smith had a team-high 21 points and four blocked shots in the losing effort. Then last night, the Hawks let an 18-point lead late in the third quarter get away at Golden State. Stephen Curry sparked the Warriors to a 108-104 win with his game-high 32 points. Don Nelson's team took the cash as a five-point underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a plus-180 payout.

--Since Jan. 9, Jerry Sloan’s squad has been on fire with 17 wins in its last 19 games. During this surge (and beyond by two games), the Jazz have hooked up their backers at a 16-2-3 ATS clip.

--Utah returns home in this spot after a perfect four-game road trip that started after the All-Star break. The Jazz won at Houston and New Orleans before capturing Friday’s 100-89 victory at Golden St. as a five-point road ‘chalk.’ Carlos Boozer dominated the Warriors with 30 points and 16 rebounds. It was Boozer again last night, producing 22 points and 23 boards to guide his team back from a double-digit deficit to an overtime win.

--As usual, Utah has been outstanding at home, compiling a 22-7 SU record to go with a 18-9-2 ATS ledger. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 13-13 SU and 15-11 ATS on the road.

--Both teams are in back-to-back spots here after playing Sunday night. The Hawks are 6-7 ATS in such situations, while the Jazz are 7-3-1 ATS.

--The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Utah games. However, the Jazz have watched the ‘over’ go 29-25-1 overall, 16-13 in its home games.

--The ‘over’ is 30-23-1 overall for the Hawks, but totals have been a wash (13-13-1) in their road assignments.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. Eastern.

**Bobcats at Clippers**

--LVSC opened Charlotte (27-27 SU, 30-24 ATS) as a four-point favorite with a total of 191 ½.

--Los Angeles (22-33 SU, 25-29-1 ATS) had not only lost its first five games under new interim head coach Kim Hughes, but it lost all five by double-digit margins. Until Saturday night, that is, when the Clippers pounded Sacramento by a 99-89 count as 1 ½-point home underdogs. Eric Gordon scored a game-high 30 points and dished out six assists, while Chris Kaman had a double-double with 22 points and 16 rebounds. In his second game as a Clipper, Steve Blake had 11 points and 12 assists.

--Blake, along with Travis Outlaw, was acquired from Portland in exchange for Marcus Camby. The Clippers also dealt away Al Thornton and Sebastian Telfair and got Drew Gooden in return. Gooden, who was averaging 8.9 points and 6.9 rebounds in 46 games with Dallas, is expected to make his L.A. debut against Charlotte.

--L.A. guard Baron Davis (back injury) has missed two straight games and is “questionable” in this spot. Davis averages 15.6 points and 7.8 assists per game.

--Larry Brown’s team is trying to make the playoffs for the first time in the franchise’s six-year history. The Bobcats are currently holding the East’s eighth and final playoff spot thanks to a stellar home record. They have been abysmal on the road, losing 20 of 27 games, but that hasn’t had a negative impact on their backers. In fact, Charlotte is a profitable 15-12 ATS on the road.

--Charlotte is coming off Saturday’s 93-88 loss at Milwaukee as a three-point underdog. Stephen Jackson was sensational in defeat, tallying 35 points, five rebounds and five assists.

--L.A. has a 15-12 SU record and a 13-13-1 ATS mark at home this season.

--The ‘under’ is 29-26 overall for the Clippers, 18-9 in their home games.

--The ‘over’ is 32-22 overall for the Bobcats, 16-11 in their road assignments.

--Tip-off is slated for 10:35 p.m. ET.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--If you had any action on the Miami-Memphis game Friday night, it will have to go down as one of those ‘all-timers’ you’ll never forget about. And I’m talking about every type of wager you can fathom had a wild result in this contest. For starters, Dwyane Wade was “doubtful” but with the way NBA injuries go, gamblers weren’t 100-percent certain the perennial All-Star wouldn’t play. As tip-time approached, most books had the Grizzlies favored by 6 ½ with a total of 189. The Heat were at around plus-220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220). Miami raced out to a 46-31 lead at intermission, prompting betting shops to make Memphis a seven-point favorite for second-half wagers. The Grizzlies were tempting in that scenario, catching eight points (down 15, minus seven) when initially favored by 6 ½ for 14 ½ points of line value from the original number. Well, Memphis backers for second-half wagers were looking great, as the Grizzlies made a quick third-quarter run to get back in the game. They ended up forcing overtime, making gamblers with Miami money-line bets start to sweat missing out on a plus-220 payout. Bettors on the ‘under,’ who had been comfortable all night, had to get anxious all of a sudden as well. Then the game went into double overtime, with Miami eventually winning by a 100-87 count. Therefore, those ‘under’ backers (189) deservedly cashed tickets, but not without anxious moments galore. As for those on the Heat for the generous money-line return, they also came away smiling. However, those taking Memphis in the second half suffered a tough beat. Without a doubt, this wild double-OT affair demonstrated why we call it gambling – in more ways than one.

--Washington will play host to Chicago on NBA-TV at 7:05 p.m. Eastern. LVSC opened the Bulls as three-point road favorites. As of Sunday night, most books had adjusted Vinny Del Negro’s team to a two-point ‘chalk.’ Chicago has won four in a row and six of its last seven both SU and ATS.

--Most spots had Dallas listed as a 9 ½-point home favorite for its home game against the Pacers. This contest will come off the board at 8:35 p.m. ET. Remember, the Mavs are an atrocious 1-19 ATS in their 20 games as home favorites.

--Sunday’s Best Bet: Memphis went to intermission trailing the Nets by 11, prompting oddsmakers to make the Grizzlies six-point favorites for halftime wagers. That equated to Memphis being a five-point underdog instead of a six-point favorite (the original line). That’s 11 points of line value but most importantly, you’re in a situation of catching points against a 5-win team 56 games into the season. The Grizzlies predictably rallied to win at New Jersey by a 104-94 score.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-22-2010, 07:40 PM

Oklahoma at Kansas 9:00E ESPN

Kansas (26-1, 10-13-1 ATS) is trying to sweep the Big 12 this year with its talented club and has three remaining games that will put them to the test, however that doesn’t begin until Feb.27, as they figure to have little resistance against Oklahoma (13-13, 9-14 ATS). The Jayhawks may not always play their best, but master recruiter and motivator Bill Self always finds a reason for the team or individual players to test themselves to perform at a higher level. The high flying Jayhawks are 19-5 ATS when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last two years.

To say it has been an eventful campaign in Norman, is like saying the Mid-Atlantic States have seen a little snow the last few weeks. Losing streaks, selfish play, underachieving players, suspensions, you name it, coach Jeff Caple has been going up and the emotional elevator all season. If there has been a bright spot on dismal year, it has been the late maturation and emergence of freshman guard Tommy Mason-Griffin. Opposing teams have picked up on Mason-Griffin is a deadly three-point shooter and been forced to account for him, opening up areas in the lane for the Sooners to have easier shoots. Oklahoma will need him and others since they are 13-25 ATS as an underdog the last few years.

Kansas has covered the spread just once on last seven tries, though could have on at least two other occasions, opening up big leads against large numbers and coasting to victory. The Jayhawks are 22-point favorites with total of 147.5 and are 16-5 ATS in last 21 Monday assignments. It will be intriguing to see what kind of fight Oklahoma actually has as the basketball program, since they have mirrored their football brethren from this past season and are 15-36-3 ATS on the road.

Kansas has swept six straight over the Sooners at Allen Fieldhouse with .500 spread record and own the nation’s longest home winning streak at 57 games and the UNDER is 6-2 in Lawrence for Boomer Sooner’s last eight visits.

Announcement

The Bum's Monday's Best Best + PODS !

The Bum's Monday's Best Best + PODS !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment