Sunday Trends and Indexes 2/21 (NBA,NCAAB, Misc.)

[Udog]

NBA


Sunday, February 21

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Tips and Trends
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Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets [ABC | 3:30 PM ET]

Celtics: Boston appears reinvigorated since the All Star break, as they are unbeaten SU in 3 road games. They were the listed underdog to both the Lakers and the Blazers. Boston is 35-18 SU on the season, the 3rd best record in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are 20-9 SU and 15-14 ATS on the road this season. The Celtics are 6-2-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Boston has been playing unbelievable defense, holding 15 of their past 17 opponents to fewer than 100 PTS. The Celtics only allow 93.2 PPG, the fewest in the entire NBA. Opponents are only shooting 44% against Boston this season. Offensively, the Celtics average 98.4 PPG this season. Unfortunately, Boston has only reached the 100 point barrier once in their past 16 games. Ironically, the Celtics shoot 48.2% from the field, the 4th best in the NBA. Clearly this specific stat proves how Boston prefers to slow down the pace of play in each game they play. G Ray Allen averages 16.3 PPG this season, and typically plays his best against the Nuggets.

Celtics are 9-4 ATS last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % greater than .600.
Under is 5-0 last 5 road games.

Key Injuries - G Nate Robinson (flu) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 95

Nuggets (-4, O/U 199): Today is a huge revenge game for Denver, as the last time they hosted the Celtics at home they lost by 38 PTS. That 38 point debacle was the 2nd worst home loss in franchise history for Denver. The Nuggets have alternated SU wins and losses over their past 8 games. Proof of this inconsistency was in their past 2 games. Denver beat the Cavaliers on the road SU, only to follow that up with a SU loss to the Wizards. The Nuggets are 36-19 SU this season, the 2nd best record in the Western Conference. Denver is 23-5 SU and 14-13-1 ATS at home this season. The Nuggets are 9-6-1 ATS as a single digit home favorite this season. Denver has scored at least 100 PTS in 8 of their past 10 home games. The Nuggets average 107.3 PPG this season, the 3rd most PTS in the NBA. F Carmelo Anthony is 3rd in the NBA with 29.3 PPG this season. G J.R. Smith has scored in double figures in 6 of his past 7 games.

Nuggets are 7-1 ATS last 8 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Key Injuries - C Chris Anderson (back) is questionable.
F Renaldo Balkman (back) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 106 (SIDE of the Day)



Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers [ESPN | 10:30 PM ET]

Jazz (-1, O/U 192): The Jazz are the hottest team in the Western Conference, as they've won 16 of their past 18 games SU. In their past 20 games, the Jazz have only lost twice ATS. Utah is 35-19 SU for the season, which is the 3rd best record in the Western Conference. The Jazz have won 6 straight road games SU, and are 13-12 SU on the road this entire season. Utah is 15-9-1 ATS on the road this season, and they haven't lost a road game ATS since last December. THe Jazz are 19-10-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The only negative that's happened all year for the Jazz was the recent trade of G Ronnie Brewer. That front office decision raised eyebrows amongst the players, notably star PG Deron Williams. Williams leads the 7th highest scoring team in the NBA with 102.1 PPG this season. Williams averages 18.3 PPG and the 9.9 APG, the 3rd most in the NBA. F Carlos Boozer is averaging 19.4 PPG and 11 RPG this season, both team highs for the Jazz.

Jazz are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite.
Over is 5-0 last 5 vs. a team with a winning SU record.

Key Injuries - C Mehmet Okur (personal) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 100

Trail Blazers: The last team in the NBA that Portland wants to see today is the Utah Jazz. Portland has lost all 3 games SU to the Jazz this season, losing by double digits each time. Portland has been the listed underdog all 3 contests this season. The Blazers have played .500 basketball the past 6 games, and stand 32-25 SU on the season. Portland is currently sitting in the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Blazers are coming off a season low 76 PTS, including a franchise low 7 assists total at home to the Celtics. The Blazers are 19-12 SU and 14-16-1 ATS at home this season. Portland is 12-11 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Blazers average 97 PPG this season, with star G Brandon Roy leading the way with 22.3 PPG. Roy is coming off an injury, and has only scored 13 PTS in the past 2 games combined. The recent addition of C Marcus Camby should make the Blazers defense even stronger. The Blazers only allow 95.2 PPG this season, the 5th fewest PPG in the NBA.

Trail Blazers are 22-10 ATS last 32 games as a home underdog up to 4.5 PTS.
Under is 5-1 last 6 home games.

Key Injuries - C Joel Przybilla (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 101 (OVER - Total of the Day)


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[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet


Sunday, 2/21/2010

CLEVELAND at ORLANDO, 1:00 PM ET ABC
CLEVELAND: 17-4 UNDER on Sunday
ORLANDO: 11-1 ATS at home after a DD loss

BOSTON at DENVER, 3:30 PM ET ABC
BOSTON: 17-7 ATS as a road underdog of 6 or less
DENVER: 2-11 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days

SAN ANTONIO at DETROIT, 6:05 PM ET
SAN ANTONIO: 31-17 ATS after a non-conference game
DETROIT: 7-20 ATS after a division game

MEMPHIS at NEW JERSEY, 6:05 PM ET
MEMPHIS: 7-0 ATS Away when playing 4 or less games in 10 days
NEW JERSEY: 7-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5

HOUSTON at NEW ORLEANS, 7:05 PM ET
HOUSTON: 16-6 ATS after a DD loss
NEW ORLEANS: 8-18 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5

OKLAHOMA CITY at MINNESOTA, 7:05 PM ET
OKLAHOMA CITY: 17-2 ATS after an ATS loss
MINNESOTA: 4-13 ATS at home after playing as a home underdog

ATLANTA at GOLDEN STATE, 8:05 PM ET ESPN
ATLANTA: 7-0 ATS after scoring 85 or less
GOLDEN STATE: 18-6 OVER against Southeast division

SACRAMENTO at PHOENIX, 8:05 PM ET
SACRAMENTO: 74-47 ATS when playing with triple revenge
PHOENIX: 33-58 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12

UTAH at PORTLAND, 10:35 PM ET ESPN
UTAH: 9-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
PORTLAND: 16-7 OVER as an underdog

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NBA
Write-Up


Early Game

Sunday, February 21

Hot Teams
-- Orlando is 6-1 vs spread in last games following last seven games they didn't cover.


Cold Teams
-- Cavaliers lost last two games, covered one of last five.


Totals
-- Last five Cleveland games went over the total.
--

[Udog]

NBA
Write-Up


Sunday, February 21

Hot Teams
-- Orlando is 6-1 vs spread in last games following last seven games they didn't cover.
-- Celtics won last three games, by 3-1-20 points.
-- Nets are 8-3-1 vs spread in their last dozen games.
-- Thunder won last eight games, covered five of last six.
-- Suns won seven of their last nine games.
-- Utah won three in row, 16 of last 18 games.

Cold Teams
-- Cavaliers lost last two games, covered one of last five.
-- Nuggets covered one of their last four home games.
-- Spurs lost three of last four games, covered two of last nine.
-- Pistons lost three of their last four games.
-- Grizzlies lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Rockets lost four of their last five games. Hornets covered two of last nine home games.
-- Minnesota lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread).
-- Warriors lost 11 of their last 13 games. Hawks lost four of their last six road games.
-- Kings lost three in row, nine of last 12 games.
-- Trialblazers lost three of their last four home games.

Totals
-- Last five Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-5 in last sixteen Detroit games.
-- Three of last four Memphis road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven New Orleans games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Atlanta road games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-0-1 in last seven Phoenix games. Over is 7-3 in last ten Sacramento games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Portland games.

[Udog]

Sunday six-pack

According to Baseball America, the six baseball organizations with most minor league talent........

6) Red Sox-- Leaning towards international, high school players.

5) Phillies-- Rating was written before Michael Taylor was traded.

4) Giants-- Were ranked 23rd as recently as two years ago.

3) Indians-- Most of their prospects came thru trades, not draft.

2) Rangers-- Need some of their young pitchers to produce in bigs.

1) Rays-- All of a sudden, have a glut of solid young pitchers.


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Sunday's List of 13:

Wrapping up a college basketball Sunday

13) Weird set of Bracket Buster games this year-- seems like mid-majors aren't as strong as in past years, when a George Mason, North Dakota State, Siena or Northwestern State made noise in March. If I had to guess, would say New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech come closest to that level.

12) In other words, no one is going to have a gripe on Selection Sunday if they get sent to the NIT or CBI tourney. If you want to make the Field of 65, win more games now. Lot of parity in college hoops right now.

11) North Carolina is now tied for 10th place in the 12-team ACC; 14-13 overall, Tar Heels seem like a team looking for the season to end.

10) Halftime score: Washington 49, UCLA 26. Pac-10 games are not easy to handicap this year-- all ten teams are schizophrenic, or worse.

9) Maryland beat Georgia Tech with buzzer-beater on side out of bounds play, after Vazquez' 40-foot runner was waved off because Terps' bench had called a timeout. Not often you see a team hit two buzzer beaters in a 5-minute span. Very difficult loss for the young Yellow Jackets.

8) Kentucky shot 35.7%, Vanderbilt 32.1% in a fierce struggle Kentucky finally won 58-56 in Nashville. Wildcats were 17-30 from foul line, 3-16 on arc-- they got outrebounded by Vandy, but found a way to win.

7) Western Kentucky came back from down 10 at half to win in overtime at Arkansas State, putting North Texas a game up in Sun Belt West.

6) Best weekend in 20 years for LMU, which upset Gonzaga Thursday and beat Portland in OT last night; Pilots had beaten LMU by 40 in the first meeting. Coach Max Good is doing a solid job with his Lions.

5) Illinois coach Bruce Weber, a former Purdue assistant, got a technical in last minute at Purdue-- why? His Illini were 3-5 from the foul line, while Purdue was 24-28. Coach Weber was thinking his boys got hosed.

4) SMU coach Matt Doherty got into a verbal battle with Memphis fans after his 76-63 loss to Tigers, saying something to effect that "at least my players can get their own SAT scores." Someone needs to tell Doherty he's coaching in Conference USA, not the Patriot League.

3) Tough weekend for Colonial League, as Old Dominion, George Mason, William & Mary and Northeastern all got beat. On the other hand, Big West teams went 7-2, so a good weekend for that struggling league.

2) Wake Forest didn't make a 3-pointer in awful 68-54 loss at NC State Saturday, ending a 575-game streak dating back to 1992 where Deacons had made at least one trey in every game.

1) UConn won by 18 at Rutgers; Huskies still seem to have some life left in them, but its going to take lot of work for them to make the NCAAs. Tourney regulars like UNC, Oklahoma and UCLA are staying home.