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**StarDust Bum** · 02-20-2010, 11:19 AM

Early-Action Tip Sheet

Gamblers get to start early today with the college hoops action tipping off at 11:00 a.m. Eastern with the premier BracketBuster matchup between Siena at Butler. Just an hour later, Ole Miss and Florida will square off in a crucial bubble game for both SEC schools.

Let’s get you ready for your early-afternoon wagers!

**Siena at Butler**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Butler (24-4 straight up, 11-17 against the spread) as an eight-point favorite. As of early this morning, books had the Bulldogs at 7 1/2 or eight with a total of 141.

--Siena (22-5 SU, 14-10-1 ATS) bounced back from last Friday’s 87-74 loss at Niagara by trouncing Canisius 75-57 Sunday as an eight-point road ‘chalk.’ Alex Franklin exploded for 26 points and seven rebounds, while Ryan Rossiter had a double-double with 15 points and 17 rebounds.

--Brad Stevens’ team has won 16 in a row and hasn’t tasted defeat since a Dec. 22 loss at UAB. The Bulldogs are mired in a 2-5 ATS slump, but they are 5-4 ATS in nine games as single-digit favorites this year.

--Butler is coming off of Wednesday’s 73-55 home win over Illinois-Chicago, but it failed to hook up its backers as a 22 ½-point favorite. Matt Howard led four double-figure scorers with 17 points.

--Frank McCaffery’s team has won a first-round game in the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons, beating Vanderbilt two years ago and Ohio St. last season. The Saints, who have an RPI of 32, will almost certainly be in line for an at-large invite with a win at Butler in this spot.

--Siena has been an underdog three times this season, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Saints have lost at Northern Iowa (82-65), at Ga. Tech (74-61) and at Temple (73-69). They covered the number against the Owls as 4 ½-point road underdogs.

--Butler, with its RPI of 20, is 5-4 against teams in the RPI’s Top 100. The Bulldogs’ four losses have come against Minnesota, Clemson and Georgetown on neutral courts, in addition to the aforementioned defeat at UAB.

--The ‘over’ is 14-12 overall for Butler, 6-5 in its home games. This is the Bulldogs' second-highest total of the season. The previous high was 142 in a 70-69 loss to Clemson that saw the 139 combined points stay 'under' the total.

--Siena has seen the ‘under’ go 12-8-1 overall.

--ESPN2 will have the telecast at 11:00 a.m. Eastern.

**Florida at Ole Miss**

--LVSC opened Ole Miss (17-8 SU, 12-8-1 ATS) as a five-point favorite. As of late Friday night, most spots still had the Rebels as five-point 'chalk' with a total of 146. Look for the Gators to be available on the money line for about a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win 180).

--Florida (18-8 SU, 11-10 ATS) collected an absolutely mandatory victory Thursday night at the O-Dome, taking out Auburn by a 78-70 count. The Tigers took the money as nine-point road underdogs, however. Junior forward Chandler Parsons produced another stellar performance, tallying 17 points, six rebounds and four assists. Erving Walker went 0-for-6 from the field, but he made 14-of-16 free throws and had a 6-to-1 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

--Ole Miss has lost four of its last five games, compiling a 1-3-1 spread record. The Rebels suffered a costly loss Thursday night at home vs. Vanderbilt. The Commodores went into Tad Smith Coliseum and captured an 82-78 win as three-point road underdogs. In the losing effort, Rebels’ junior guard Chris Warren bounced back from a 1-for-9 shooting performance in last weekend’s loss at Mississippi St. to score a team-high 23 points on 7-of-13 attempts from the field.

--With Thursday’s win over Auburn, UF’s RPI improved a bit to No. 57. Meanwhile, Ole Miss saw its RPI fall to 54. The Gators are 7-4 in SEC play and in a third-place with Tennessee in the SEC East. The Rebels are 5-6 in the SEC, leaving them in third place in the SEC West, one game back of second-place Mississippi St. and two games behind division-leading Arkansas.

--Andy Kennedy’s team has won 10 of its 13 games at the Tad Pad in Oxford, but the Rebels are just 3-5-1 ATS at home. They are 1-2-1 ATS in four home games as single-digit favorites.

--Billy Donovan’s team is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS as a road underdog this year. The Gators have won outright as road ‘dogs at Alabama and at Arkansas.

--The ‘over’ is 11-9-1 overall for Ole Miss, 5-3-1 in its home games.

--The ‘under’ is 10-7 overall for UF.

--The ‘over’ is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head encounters between these SEC adversaries. UF has taken the cash in six of the last eight meetings.

--When these teams met in Gainesville last season, UF won a 78-68 decision but a banged-up Ole Miss team covered the number as a 13 ½-point underdog. In the last meeting in Oxford two seasons ago, the Rebels won 89-87 but the Gators covered as six-point underdogs.

--CBS will provide regional coverage at noon Eastern.

**Seton Hall at West Virginia**

--LVSC opened West Virginia (20-5 SU, 10-14 ATS) as an 11 ½-point favorite. As of early this morning, most spots had the Mountaineers installed as 12-point favorites.

--Seton Hall (15-9 SU, 6-12 ATS) has won three straight games, including Wednesday’s 59-50 win at St. John’s as a one-point road favorite. Jeff Robinson led the Pirates with 16 points, nine rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.

--The Hall’s win over the Red Storm was even more impressive when considering that the Big East’s second-leading scorer, Jeremy Hazell, left the game with 8:21 remaining in the first half and did not return. Hazell, who averages 21.9 points per game, suffered a deep cut between his middle finger and index finger on his shooting hand, leaving him “questionable” to play in Morgantown. Although Hazell’s scoring production can’t be questioned, his shot selection is often mediocre, as evidenced by his 43.8 shooting percentage from the field. His inability (or lack of desire) to distribute the ball is also in doubt, as you can see by his 1.5 assists-per-game average. In his freshman and sophomore campaigns, Hazell averaged less that one assist per contest. My point? Don’t be shocked if the Pirates play more together – and perhaps more effective – in Hazell’s potential absence.

--West Va. has won 10 of 12 home games but is just 4-7 versus the number in Morgantown.

--Bob Huggins’ team snapped a two-game losing streak (vs. ‘Nova and at Pitt in triple OT) by beating Providence 88-74 Wednesday as a 7 ½-point road favorite. Devin Ebanks led the Mountaineers with 21 points and seven rebounds, while Wellington Smith added 16 points and 10 boards.

--Seton Hall is 3-5 ATS in eight underdog spots this year. The Pirates have been double-digit underdogs just once, losing 81-71 at Villanova but taking the cash as 10 ½-point puppies.

--The ‘over’ is 12-10 overall for WVU, but the ‘under’ is 5-4 in its home outings. The ‘Neers have seen the ‘over’ cash in four consecutive contests (three on the road, one at home).

--WVU has won five in a row over Seton Hall, posting a 4-1 spread record. When these schools met at the Prudential Center in New Jersey back on Dec. 26, West Va. won 90-84 in overtime as a four-point road ‘chalk.’ Ebanks was the catalyst for the ‘Neers, tallying 22 points, 17 rebounds and seven assists. Hazell had 41 points for the Hall in the losing effort.

--ESPN will provide television coverage at noon Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--According to Joe Lunardi’s bracket projections on ESPN.com after Thursday’s results, the “last four teams in” the tournament field are Florida, Oklahoma St., Marquette and Saint Mary’s. The “first four out” included Mississippi St., Charlotte, South Florida and Cincinnati. Ole Miss was in the “next four out” along with San Diego St., Wichita St. and UConn.

--LVSC opened Washington as a 10 ½-point favorite for Saturday’s prime-time telecast against UCLA on ESPN at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. The Huskies suffered a costly home loss to USC on Thursday night, as the Trojans won outright as nine-point underdogs.

--Speaking of USC, it now owns a lucrative 8-1 spread record in nine underdog situations. The Trojans play Saturday at Washington St. in what LVSC opened as a pick ‘em affair.

--North Carolina’s Tyler Zeller is expected to return to the lineup when UNC faces Boston College in Chesnut Hill at noon Eastern on Saturday. CBS will have regional television coverage. Zeller, who is the Tar Heels’ third-leading scorer with a 9.6 points-per-game average, has missed 10 consecutive games with a broken bone in his foot.

--According to a tweet from Kyle Veazey of the Jackson Clarion-Ledger, Mississippi State guard Ravern Johnson will return to the lineup Saturday at LSU. Johnson, who was suspended from Tuesday’s overtime loss to Kentucky, is the Bulldogs’ leading scorer, averaging 13.7 PPG.

--Ryan Wittman dropped 27 points at Harvard last night to lead Cornell to a 79-70 win. Jeremy Lin had a team-high 24 points for the Crimson in defeat. The Big Red covered the spread as a three-point road favorite.

--Georgia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games, 9-1 in its last 10 home assignments at Stegeman Coliseum. The Dawgs play host to Alabama later today at 4:00 p.m. Eastern. Most spots have UGA as a two-point home 'chalk.'

**StarDust Bum** · 02-20-2010, 11:20 AM

BracketBuster Breakdown

The BracketBuster, originally a bright ESPN idea to bring some of the best "mid major" college basketball teams together on one day and televise all (12 to 14 in original plans) the games, has now grown into a two-day event, which was even moved to three days a couple of years back before the folks at "the mothership" somewhat came to their senses.

What was meant as a showcase for the best of the mid majors has now turned into a free for all, as nearly every team in the category is playing this weekend, which to me lessens the impact of the event, and certainly makes it lose much of its luster. I mean, really, do we need to know what is going to happen when Elon travels to Gardner-Webb, or Presbyterian visits Jacksonville State? Do not forget about the titanic tussle between Southern Illinois-Edwardsville at Cal-Fullerton, or my personal (sic) "favorite" * Marist at Cal-Irvine. I am sure Marist would rather save the travel money than fly out to the West Coast to get blitzed (my projections call for a 14 point Irvine win) by Irvine. I love college hoops, but so many of these games are "What is the point" type of contests, and as I said above this event would really be an "event" again if it were pared down.

Thankfully, there are good games as well, although not nearly as many as in the past, and even some of the potential marquee games have been hurt by injuries and/or suspension. I will present the top five games from this view (in order of tip off time), with point-spread opinions included when I have a definite side opinion on the game as I write this.

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa (Friday, 7pm EST * espn2) * Both of these teams should make the NCAA Tournament regardless of how this game ends up, but the winner has a chance at improving their seed for sure. I have both of these teams in my Top 50, but since NIU¹s second leading scorer will be serving a suspension for this one, it does lose some of its luster. NIU has dropped three in a row in the Bracket Buster, with the only win since 2005 coming in Overtime. ODU is 4-0 in the Buster series, but this is easily the best team they have faced in the event. The line should be about Pick¹em, and the only way I would be seriously interested in this one would be a line of four or more, and then I would take the dog.

Siena at Butler (Saturday, 11am EST * espn2) - Both of these teams are capable of playing on the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and to me this is the marquee game of the event, worth waking up for with the (weird) 11am start on the East Coast (I will be up at 8am to watch it here in Vegas.) Siena beat Northern Iowa in this event last year and is 3-1 SU in it the last four seasons. That record is even more impressive when noting that three of the four games were on the road, and the lone loss was in overtime.

This will be the last meaningful game for the Saints until the MEAC Tournament, and I do look for an excellent effort, especially since they have had the entire week to get ready while Butler (1-3 in BB, lost both at home) played a league game on Wednesday. Butler should be about a six point favorite here, and as long as it is +4 or more I will definitely be taking the underdog in this one.

Louisiana Tech at Northeastern (Saturday, 1pm, espn2) - This sets up VERY nicely for Northeastern as La Tech off a nationally televised road game against conference leader Utah State and now have to travel to the other side of the country to play Matt Janning and Northeastern. In that last game La Tech was in it until the very end, so it was both a physically and emotionally demanding game Northeastern is 3-1 in the BB, with two impressive home wins, and I look for more of the same in this one. I will be on Northeastern provided they are laying seven or less.

Akron at Virginia Commonwealth (Saturday, 4pm, ESPNU) - Akron an interesting team. They struggled in the non conference slate, going 4-3 to start the season and being just two baskets away from being 2-5 in those first seven games. However, they have going 16-4 in their last 20 contests and come into this one winners of six in a row. VCU presents a challenge, as they are 13-1 SU at home this season and have a potential star in 6-11 Larry Sanders, who should have no peer on this court today. It is also interesting that this game is a "Bracket Buster Rematch" as VCU went into Akron two years ago and won 57-52 and also won the contractually guaranteed comeback game by a 73-69 tally last season. Interested to see where this line actually comes out - my projections are for VCU to be favored by six. Lean is with the home team barring a massive number.

Wichita State at Utah State (Saturday, 11:59pm, espn2) - Utah State played poorly for 30 minutes on Wednesday night against Louisiana Tech and still got the win, as the crowd at the Smith Spectrum was unbelievably loud for the ESPN2 cameras. It figures to be loud and crazy here again on national TV against a well respected opponent. Shockers are not used to starting a game at (their body clock) 11pm and playing into the early morning hours, while this 9pm local time start is old hat for USU. Not surprisingly, the home team is 4-0 SU in Utah State Bracket Buster games the last four seasons (Aggies 2-2), but somewhat surprisingly since it was Missouri Valley team this event was created for, Wichita State is jus 1-3 SU in their last four Bracket Buster games. The above "handicap" of the game certainly points to home team, but with a projected line of -8 it does not look like I will be real heavily involved with this one; put me down for a small lean with Utah State.

Those are the biggest games of Bracket Buster Saturday, but there are others of interest. I will note each and give a quick note regarding the game, whether that note is general or specific to the point-spread:

Oral Roberts at Austin Peay- I actually have ORU as the better team here, yet the consensus is that Austin Peay will be laying points. If that is the case you can certainly mark me down for a play on the underdog. Drexel at Bradley- Another case of the road team being more talented but likely coming a dog, and if that is the case I will be on the Dragon's back for this contest.

Toledo at Cleveland State- Pending the result of CSU's game tonite (Thursday), the Vikings will either be 14-14 or 13-15 coming into this game.

Either way, it is a stark contrast to the 20-8 record they brought into the Bracket Buster last season when they lost to Wichita State in a game Coach Gary Waters knew would be trouble, as before the contest he called it a "no win situation" for his team. That is NOT the case this time around, as the Vikings cannot let an opportunity for a win slip by, as teams are only eligible for the post season if they have a better than .500 record. Toledo was not very good when they had their full roster, and now attrition and suspensions have robbed them of even more talent. This is going to be a big number, but lay it!

Cal-Poly at Hawaii and Fresno State at Cal-Santa Barbara - While this season Fresno and UCSB are better than their counterparts that will meet on the islands, in general all four schools fight for the same kids in recruiting. The two winners here will have a leg up, and the coaches know it, so expect good efforts from all four teams.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-20-2010, 11:22 AM

Road Traps Abound

Saturday’s college basketball slate features a ton of games on tap and even though the BracketBuster showdowns between the mid-major schools will get some publicity, the must-see matchups are in the big conferences. With Selection Sunday less than four weeks away, the committee continues to handicap the field of 65 for the NCAA Tournament. One big factor that is often weighed heavily with the group is road victories. Even if they’re ugly, wins outside of your own building go a long way.
This evening, five quality clubs face tough tests on the road and it’s more than likely that a couple will come up short. Who you ask? We’ll take a closer look and try to find out.

Let’s break ‘em down!

Kentucky at Vanderbilt

The only Top 25 showdown on Saturday happens in the SEC and it’s a good one, with No. 2 Kentucky heading to Nashville for a battle against No. 17 Vanderbilt. This series has been all about the home team lately, with the host winning and covering six straight and that last four haven’t been close, all decided by 10 or more. Kentucky ran past Vanderbilt 85-72 on Jan. 30 as an 8 ½-point home favorite in a game that was all but over at halftime (49-34). This victory for the Wildcats came right after John Calipari’s team lost its first game of the season to South Carolina (62-68).

Despite losing to the Gamecocks on the road, Kentucky still owns an 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS record in contests outside of Lexington. SEC Guru and VegasInsider.com expert Brian Edwards is high on the ‘Cats but he wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blue and White faithful lose again before the Big Dance.

"I think Kentucky has as much talent as any team in the nation, but I sense a hiccup coming soon and this will probably be it. The Wildcats dodged a bullet (and a few objects from the stands) in Starkville the other night, rallying from a seven-point deficit in the final 2 ½ minutes. But Vanderbilt has a better overall team than Mississippi St., and let’s not forget that Bulldogs’ guard Ravern Johnson was suspended for the UK game,” explained Edwards.

“Now one slight edge for the ‘Cats in this spot is that they played on Tuesday night, while the Commodores won a hard-fought contest Thursday at Ole Miss. So UK has had more time to rest and prep for Vandy. However, I think the homecourt advantage and deadly 3-point shooting will be the catalysts for the Commodores coming out on top.”

At home this season, Vanderbilt has gone 13-0 SU and 6-6 ATS from Memorial Gym.

Kansas State at Oklahoma

Since Frank Martin’s team lost to Kansas (79-81) in overtime on Jan. 30, the Wildcats have been tough to figure out. They’ve gone 4-0 in the last four but two victories were by double digits and the other two by exactly four points. What team shows up in Norman?

As expected, the Sooners are down this year and lately they’ve been bad. Oklahoma is mired in a 2-6 stretch, both SU and ATS. Both victories came at home and one was against Texas (80-71), who’s been slumping lately too.

K-State has gone 8-2 in road and neutral games this year and it has helped gamblers to a 5-4-1 ATS mark too. Total players should make a note that the ‘over’ has gone 8-2 over this stretch.

Missouri at Nebraska

The Tigers face a big let-down spot on Saturday when they meet the Cornhuskers in Lincoln. Missouri is fresh of an 82-77 home victory over No. 15 Texas on Wednesday. The win all but assured Mike Anderson and his team a spot in the NCAA Tournament, yet they can still improve their seeding. A road loss would hurt and the Tigers have been suspect (2-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) outside of Columbia this season.

Nebraska has gone 11-4 SU at home this year but make a note that eight of those victories came against cupcakes in non-lined games. In Big 12 play, the Cornhuskers have gone 1-4 and the lone win came against Oklahoma (63-46) a couple weeks ago. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in conference home games. The current form for Nebraska hasn’t been good either, with the team going 1-9 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in the last 10.

The head-to-head trends favor the Huskers here, with the home team winning and covering the last four meetings. Missouri stopped Nebraska 70-53 on Jan. 23 as a 13-point favorite and the combined 123 points watched the ‘under’ cash for the fourth straight encounter between the two schools.

BYU at Wyoming

The Cougars snapped a two-game road losing skid on Wednesday by blasting Colorado State 92-70 as a nine-point favorite. BYU was coming off road setbacks against New Mexico (72-76) and UNLV (74-88), two of the better teams in the Mountain West Conference. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about Saturday’s opponent, Wyoming.

An upset in this spot seems unlikely, especially if you look at the past history. BYU has won 10 consecutive (6-3-1 ATS) encounters against Wyoming and four of them came in Laramie, the last two by double digits. The pair met in Provo on Jan. 20 and BYU easily handled Wyoming 81-66 but failed to cover as a 23-point favorite. The game slipped ‘under’ the closing total of 155 and total players should make a note that the last five in this series has gone ‘under’ the number.

Being an underdog isn’t something new for the Cowboys and they haven’t been that great either. The school has gone 2-12 SU and 7-7 ATS in their 14 spots this year. However, the two outright wins did come at home, versus Utah (75-69) and San Diego State (85-83). Wyoming has gone 8-8 SU at home this season.

Gonzaga at Pepperdine

After posting back-to-back double-digit victories at home, No. 13 Gonzaga was stunned on Thursday in a road loss to Loyola Marymount, 74-66. The Lions were listed as 11-point home underdogs and some money-line players had a chance to cash big (+600) with the outright victory. Despite the loss for the Bulldogs, they still sit atop the West Coast Conference but they’ll need to win out if they desire a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Will Gonzaga bounce back two days later after the loss? Another outright loss would be very surprising, considering the Bulldogs have won 17 in a row over the Waves, and eight of those were on the road. What’s more impressive, the Zags have gone 13-3-1 ATS during this stretch.

On Jan. 21, Gonzaga beat Pepperdine 91-84 at home but didn’t come close to covering as a 23 ½-point favorite. Even though that effort should give the Waves confidence, they enter this battle with eight straight losses (1-6-1 ATS). Three of those came at home and they were by an average of 20 PPG.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-20-2010, 12:44 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

02/19/10 15-9-0 62.50% +2550 Detail
02/18/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail

Saturday, February 20Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Toronto -6.5 500
Toronto - Over 206 500

Oklahoma City - 7:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -5.5 500 ( POD )
New York - Under 203.5 500 ( TOTAL OF THE NIGHT )

Philadelphia - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -5 500
Chicago - Under 194.5 500

Miami - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -11 500 ( BLOW OUT OF THE NIGHT )
Dallas - Over 184.5 500

Indiana - 8:30 PM ET Indiana +8 500
Houston - Over 206 500

Charlotte - 8:30 PM ET Charlotte +3.5 500
Milwaukee - Under 188.5 500

Sacramento - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -1.5 500
L.A. Clippers - Over 202 500

**Spark** · 02-20-2010, 12:56 PM

Good info Bum

Good Luck

**StarDust Bum** · 02-20-2010, 04:17 PM

Big Ten Bubble

The Big Ten closed the 2009 season as one of the top rated conferences in terms of many of the computer ranking systems despite fighting the stronger reputations of the ACC and the Big East. Michigan State legitimized the strength rating of the conference with a run to the championship game as well. This year the expectations were high for the conference and the first ever victory in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge seemed to provide an early indication of success.

The conference has produced four quality teams that are locks to be in the NCAA tournament but the conference has not been as deep as last season and the teams on the bubble could be facing uphill battles to get into the tournament. For the purposes of this article we are assuming there is not a major collapse in store for Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, or Wisconsin as all four of those teams can feel comfortable about their NCAA tournament position and should all be considered threats to still be playing past the first weekend of the Big Dance. These are the four teams that technically are still alive to fight for an at-large spot although it will not be an easy road for any of these teams to expand the Big Ten share of the bubble.

Illinois:

Illinois surged to the forefront of the conversation last week with a narrow win at home against Michigan State and then a shocking upset at Wisconsin, the first ever loss for the Badgers to an unranked Big Ten team in the Bo Ryan era. The Illini could not sustain that run however, losing by 19 at home to Ohio State. While Illinois can not feel secure in its NCAA tournament position, the Illini are still alive in the Big Ten title hunt for the moment with a 9-4 conference record. The schedule has been a big reason why however as the nine wins include home and road sweeps against Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana, easily the three worst teams in the conference. Illinois is just 3-4 against the rest of the league and three of the final five games will be against the top four in the conference as well as two critical games against fellow bubble teams.

The computer numbers will not do Illinois any favors at this point as its RPI sits in the low-70s. That number could improve even if Illinois has a few losses in the coming games as the overall strength of schedule will improve dramatically. Illinois has six wins against the top 100 RPI teams but also has seven losses and three shaky non-conference losses will likely haunt the team if they end up NIT bound. Early in the year Illinois lost neutral site games to Utah, Bradley, and Georgia, by a combined total of nine points. Wins at Clemson and at home against Vanderbilt help to soften that impact but Illinois will likely need another marquee win or two down the stretch, probably needing to go 3-2 in the final five games plus a respectable showing in the Big Ten tournament. 3-2 would allow Illinois to get to 12-6 in the Big Ten standings it would be nearly impossible to leave them out with that record in a well regarded league.

Northwestern:

Amazingly the Wildcats are the only BCS conference team to have never made the NCAA tournament in its current format. Actually every team other than South Florida has made the tournament at least five times and the Bulls have made it twice despite only recently joining a major conference. Last season Northwestern was very competitive and made a close run at the tournament but this year really looked like the year. An early season injury to Kevin Coble was a major blow to the team but the Wildcats still looked like a threat with a 10-1 start in the non-conference schedule. The Wildcats also had a favorable Big Ten schedule waiting with only one meeting each with powerhouses Ohio State and Purdue. Northwestern has played in plenty of close games but ultimately it will not be the close losses that keep them out of the tournament, rather stunning February losses at Iowa and at home against Penn State.

With eight losses in conference play Northwestern figures to be in tough shape as a .500 conference mark likely will not cut it among a tough field of bubble squads. The final three conference games are favorable match-ups for the Wildcats but Northwestern is at Wisconsin this weekend in what might be a game the team needs to get back into the conversation. Northwestern’s profile has also been hurt by the teams that they beat early in the year as wins over Notre Dame, Iowa State, NC State, and Stanford all looked like quality wins at the time but now hold very little significance. Northwestern has a big win over Purdue under its belt and this team should be favored in its final four games hoping to get some momentum into the Big Ten tournament but they will likely need a serious run in Indianapolis to earn a potential shot in the Big Dance that also ends in Indianapolis. Northwestern’s RPI currently sits in the 90s so there is no real chance for the Wildcats unless they win out and do some damage in the conference tournament to get back in the conversation.

Minnesota:

The Gophers were a tournament team last season and were regularly ranked early in the season in the national polls but the wheels have appeared to fall off for this program. The distractions have been many with the top two incoming recruits in off the court trouble, eventually leaving the program and also point guard and top defensive player Al Nolen being ruled ineligible midseason. The Gophers are just 6-7 in Big Ten games but the closing schedule would allow Minnesota to get back in the picture should they finish strong. This team looked left for dead following crippling losses at home against Michigan and at Northwestern in overtime but a convincing win over Wisconsin could spark a late push. There is tremendous talent on this team so a strong finish to get to at least 10-8 in conference play should not be ruled out.

The remaining schedule features three home games and two road games with the toughest home game coming against Purdue, a win the Gophers would absolutely need. Road games at Michigan and Illinois will be key bubble battles and Minnesota needs to take care of business against Indiana and Iowa, as the earlier upset loss to Indiana in overtime put a major dent in Minnesota’s resume. A neutral site win over Butler will carry some weight but there are also losses to Portland and Miami in non-conference play. Getting back to the NCAA tournament is certainly a long shot for Minnesota given how inconsistent the team has been and considering how they have blown many games in the closing minutes but the path is there for Minnesota to have an opportunity as the schedule lines up with games that can really help the case.

Michigan:

With a 13-12 record it is hard to include Michigan on this list but the Wolverines have now won two in a row and will have the upset opportunities it needs to get back on the map. Michigan will play at Ohio State and at Michigan State, if they can win those games while taking care of business in the three remaining home games the Wolverines will be hard to ignore. Michigan has proven capable of a strong performance with three Big Ten road wins as well as a home win against Ohio State and a non-conference win against Connecticut. Losing to Kansas also helps the overall schedule ratings but ultimately there are far too many losses on the resume. Michigan has been a team that can beat anybody but can also lose to anybody so it would be too early to completely mail in the chances for this team.

There is no margin for error for Michigan but should the Wolverines win out they will finish 11-7 in conference play with wins over the likely top three teams in the conference including a sweep of Ohio State. The one-point loss to Michigan State and the blown lead at Wisconsin likely changed the trajectory of this team however as a win in either of those spots could have cancelled out a few of the ugly losses. This is a team that won a NCAA tournament game last season and could still be a threat in the Big Ten tournament should they finish well enough that there is still some hope and something to play for.

Ultimately this looks like a five-bid league with Illinois sitting in by far the best shape to be that fifth team. The Illini could be passed but it would take a miraculous run from one of the other fringe bubble teams and Illinois would not be immune to playing itself out of its tournament position as they face a brutally tough close to the regular season. The Big Ten may not be the deep league that many expected it to be this season but the top four teams all look legitimate and another Final Four team should be a strong possibility out of that group despite none of the four squads building separation as the frontrunner.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-20-2010, 04:23 PM

UPGRADED TO A BB POD

Rider - 4:00 PM ET Hofstra -7 500 ( BRACKETBUSTER POD )
Hofstra - Over 145.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 02-20-2010, 05:13 PM

Evening 5 unit games:

Central Florida - 8:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi -6.5 500
Southern Mississippi -

Western Carolina - 8:00 PM ET Kent St. -8.5 500
Kent St. -

Charleston - 8:00 PM ET Charleston +5 500 ( BB POD )
George Mason -

Western Kentucky - 8:05 PM ET Arkansas St. +3 500
Arkansas St. -

Illinois-Chicago - 8:05 PM ET Over 133 500
Evansville -

UCLA - 9:00 PM ET UCLA +11.5 500 ( PAC 10 DOG )
Washington - Under 144.5 500

Utah - 9:00 PM ET San Diego St. -11.5 500
San Diego St. -

Portland St. - 9:05 PM ET Northern Colorado -7.5 500
Northern Colorado -

UC Davis - 9:05 PM ET UC Davis +12 500
Boise St. -

Portland - 10:05 PM ET Portland -4 500
Loyola Marymount -

Drake - 10:05 PM ET Drake -1 500
CSU Northridge - Under 142.5 500

UC Santa Barbara - 10:30 PM ET UC Santa Barbara +7 500
Fresno St. -

Cal Poly SLO - 11:58 PM ET Cal Poly SLO +6 500
Hawaii -

Wichita St. - 11:59 PM ET
Utah St. - Over 128.5 500

===============================================

Other rated games and possible upgrades:

Brown - 6:00 PM ET Princeton -14 400
Princeton - Under 119 400

Yale - 7:00 PM ET Yale +3 300
Pennsylvania - Over 135.5 300

George Washington - 7:00 PM ET Richmond -9.5 300
Richmond -

Arkansas - 7:00 PM ET Auburn -3.5 300
Auburn -

Columbia - 7:00 PM ET Harvard -14 400
Harvard -

Cornell - 7:00 PM ET Cornell -19.5 300
Dartmouth -

Northern Illinois - 7:00 PM ET Northern Illinois +5 300
Eastern Illinois -

James Madison - 7:00 PM ET Canisius -4.5 300
Canisius -

NC-Wilmington - 7:00 PM ET NC-Wilmington +9 200
Radford -

Winthrop - 7:00 PM ET Winthrop +7.5 300
Eastern Kentucky -

Elon University - 7:00 PM ET Elon University -2.5 200
Gardner-Webb -

Marist - 7:00 PM ET UC Irvine -13.5 300
UC Irvine -

Tennessee Tech - 7:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech +12.5 300
Appalachian St. - Over 154 300

SIU - Edwardsville - 7:05 PM ET SIU - Edwardsville +20.5 300
Cal St. Fullerton - Over 143 300

South Alabama - 8:00 PM ET South Alabama +9.5 300
Middle Tennessee St. - Over 129 300

Indiana - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota -16.5 300
Minnesota -

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Houston +7.5 400
UAB - Under 143.5 400

Southern Methodist - 8:00 PM ET Southern Methodist +13 300
Memphis -

Marshall - 8:00 PM ET Marshall -7.5 300
Tulane -

Denver - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans +7.5 300
New Orleans - Under 116 300

Niagara - 8:00 PM ET Wis.-Milwaukee -4 300
Wis.-Milwaukee -

Presbyterian - 8:00 PM ET Jacksonville St. -12 300
Jacksonville St. -

Indiana St. - 8:00 PM ET Indiana St. +5.5 300
Wis.-Green Bay -

Louisiana-Monroe - 8:05 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe +11 400
Louisiana-Lafayette -

Drexel - 8:05 PM ET Bradley -3.5 300
Bradley -

Florida Atlantic - 8:30 PM ET Florida Atlantic +5 300
Troy - Over 150 300

Oral Roberts - 8:30 PM ET Austin Peay -1 300
Austin Peay -

Long Beach St. - 8:30 PM ET Long Beach St. +7 300
Idaho - Under 140.5 300

Eastern Washington - 8:35 PM ET Northern Arizona -7.5 300
Northern Arizona -

Gonzaga - 9:00 PM ET Gonzaga -16.5 300
Pepperdine -

Idaho State - 9:00 PM ET Weber St. -14.5 300
Weber St. -

Youngstown St. - 9:00 PM ET Youngstown St. +5 300
UC Riverside -

San Jose St. - 9:05 PM ET San Jose St. +3.5 300
Montana St. -

Loyola-Chicago - 9:35 PM ET Loyola-Chicago +10.5 300
Creighton -

San Francisco - 10:00 PM ET San Francisco +1.5 400
Santa Clara - Over 135 400

Wichita St. - 11:59 PM ET Wichita St. +7 300
Utah St. -

**StarDust Bum** · 02-20-2010, 08:51 PM

Trend Report - Saturday

Bobcats at Bucks – The Bobcats are 10-0-1 ATS (11.1 ppg) since April 04, 2007 on the road with no rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS (13.0 ppg) since November 10, 2004 as a dog after a double digit home win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Bucks are 0-8 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since November 24, 2001 as a home favorite after a game on the road after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.

Sixers at Bulls – The 76ers are 6-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since March 09, 2004 with at most one day of rest off a home win in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters. The Bulls are 0-8 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since March 29, 2007 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they led at the half.

Kings at Clippers – The Kings are 9-0-1 ATS (4.5 ppg) since February 13, 2001 with two or more days of rest after a road loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points. The Kings are 9-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since April 15, 2006 as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Clippers are 0-7 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since April 10, 2008 after a home loss in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.

Thunder at Knicks – The Knicks are 6-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since March 30, 1997 as a dog off a loss as a favorite in which they led by led by double digits at the half.

Heat at Mavericks – The Heat are 8-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since February 22, 2007 on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which fewer than 50% of their baskets were assisted. The Heat are 7-0 ATS (4.4 ppg) since March 11, 2003 on the road with no rest after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since May 29, 2003 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit road win in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less.

Wizards at Raptors – The Wizards are 0-9 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since January 22, 2003 as a road dog with at most one day of rest off a home win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Raptors are 0-6 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since April 04, 2003 at home off a road win in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points.

Pacers at Rockets – The Rockets are 0-9 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since January 30, 2001 as a favorite with two or more days of rest after a win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points.

Announcement

The Bum's Bracketbusters POD'S-Best Bets + GOY !

The Bum's Bracketbusters POD'S-Best Bets + GOY !

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