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**ntorreg88** · 02-11-2010, 06:20 PM

good luck star dust

**StarDust Bum** · 02-11-2010, 06:54 PM

Inside the Paint - Thursday

Gamblers betting on the NBA daily will catch a four-day hiatus after Thursday’s double-header on TNT, as the league takes an intermission for the All-Star break in Dallas this weekend. Tonight’s pair offers up two conference battles, which starts at 8:00 p.m. EST with a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals between the Magic and Cavaliers. The late-night battle between the Spurs and Nuggets takes place from the Mile High City with a tip time of 10:35 p.m. EST.
Orlando (36-17 SU, 24-24 ATS) at Cleveland (42-11 SU, 27-26 ATS)

After coming up short last year to Orlando in the playoffs, LeBron James and the Cavaliers have been on a serious mission this season. Cleveland has the best record in the league and it also currently owns the longest winning streak in the NBA at 12 games too. Mike Brown and his troops go for their 13th victory on Thursday when the Magic visit Quicken Loans Arena.

The Cavs haven’t perfect against the number during this run, but they have posted a decent 7-5 ATS record. Cleveland’s offense has posted the century mark in nine of the 12 games during this run, which has helped the ‘over’ go 8-4.

Cleveland has only lost three times at home this season in 23 games and two of the setbacks came in the first two weeks to Boston and Chicago. Since then, only Charlotte (88-91) was able to upend the Cavs and that happened back on Jan. 3.

Can Orlando be the fourth team? Since the Magic got beat up on a four-game West Coast trip (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) they’ve played pretty good basketball. Stan Van Gundy’s team has gone 10-2 since then and that includes a 4-1 record on the road. The two losses were by a combined six points. Defense has been the key during this recent stretch and its helped the ‘under’ go 9-3 in the last 12.

Last night, Orlando pasted Chicago by 20 points (107-87) in game that was over after the first 12 minutes (41-17). Thursday's game agaisnt Cleveland will be the second in two nights and fourth contest in five days. The Magic have gone 7-6 SU and 6-7 ATS on zero days rest. The ‘over’ has gone 8-5. It should be noted that Cleveland has produced an 9-4 record against opponents with no rest, but its just 5-8 ATS.

Cleveland and Orlando have only met once this season and the Cavs captured a 102-93 road win on Nov. 11. The combined 195 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 190 ½. Including last year’s conference finals, the ‘over’ is on a 6-1 run in this series.

San Antonio (29-21 SU, 24-26 ATS) at Denver (35-17 SU, 24-26 ATS)

Despite losing a bunch of starters to missed games all year, Denver continues to impress in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 7-3 in their last 10 and that includes a 36-point home victory (127-91) over Dallas on Tuesday. George Karl’s team has been a beast at home this year, going 23-4 SU and 14-12 ATS. The offense is averaging 112 PPG, which has produced a 15-12 ‘over’ ledger.

The Nuggets have a great shot to stay hot on Thursday when a struggling San Antonio team visits Pepsi Center. Denver has won and covered both of its meetings against the Spurs this season and both victories came on the road. The ‘under’ cashed in both meetings.

San Antonio has played a league-low 21 games on the road but it’s currently playing the annual “Rodeo Trip” that spans over eight games in 18 days. So far, Greg Popovich’s team has gone 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS and the victories were against the Kings and Clippers. The losses, like many of them this year, came against winning clubs in the Trail Blazers and Lakers.

The Spurs have struggled against teams at or above .500 this season, posting a miserable 10-19 record both SU and ATS. Delving into those numbers, we find out that the Spurs are 3-10 both SU and ATS against winning teams on the road.

Ironically, if the playoffs started today the Spurs and Nuggets would meet in the first round.

TNT Trends

Whether you pay attention to the national broadcast or not, we looked back at the past six telecasts of 2010 on TNT and we did find some interesting trends. We included this past Monday and the three games played on Martin Luther King Day.
The home team has gone 11-2 in the 13 games.
The favorite has gone 10-3 straight up. The three underdogs that have won outright were the Mavericks at Boston, Bulls at Boston and Trail Blazers versus San Antonio last Thursday.
Gamblers have watched the favorites and underdogs produce a 6-6-1 stalemate.
Total players have seen the ‘under’ go 9-4 during this run.
One other trend that has stood out relates to the Spurs. San Antonio has been on TNT six times this season and it has gone 1-5 over this span. And the club lost another game on Thursday this year to the Jazz.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-11-2010, 06:55 PM

Trend Report - Thursday

Magic at Cavaliers – The Magic are 0-7 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since March 09, 2009 when facing a team they lost to as a home favorite in their previous same-season match-up. The Magic are 6-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since December 27, 2008 before playing the Pistons. The Cavaliers are 11-0-1 ATS (8.2 ppg) since November 19, 1996 as a home favorite when they shot at least 50% from the field in each of their last two games. The Cavaliers are 0-9 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since February 07, 2008 after a win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since November 15, 2008 at home with at most one day of rest after a home win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.

Spurs at Nuggets – The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (5.8 ppg) since January 25, 2002 on the road when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss as a home favorite. The Spurs are 6-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since November 30, 1996 after a double digit loss in which they had at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since April 05, 2009 when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss. The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since November 11, 2001 at home with at most one day of rest after a win in which they controlled at least 60% of the available rebounds. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since January 20, 2009 at home with 3+ days rest upcoming. The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since December 08, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-11-2010, 06:56 PM

Thursday's Tips

**Ole Miss at Mississippi State**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Mississippi St. (16-7 straight up, 10-8 against the spread) as a 5 ½-point favorite, but most books had the Bulldogs reduced to 4 ½ with a total of 146 1/2 as of early this morning.

--With four losses in its last five games, Rick Stansbury’s team has fallen down to third place in the SEC West with a 4-4 record in SEC action. The Bulldogs came up empty last week in a pair of tough road games at Vanderbilt (75-72) and at Florida (69-62).

--Ole Miss (17-6 SU, 12-6-1 ATS) had lost back-to-back games and was trailing Alabama by 20 at intermission in Oxford this past Saturday. Down 40-20 at halftime, the Rebels rallied to not only win but also garner their backers a miraculous push. They eventually won 74-67 win as seven-point home favorites. Chris Warren had a team-high 21 points, while Terrance Henry added 20 points and eight rebounds.

--If the season ended today, Ole Miss would probably be invited to the NCAA Tournament. However, the same can’t be said for Mississippi St. The Rebels are 39th in the RPI Rankings, while MSU has dropped to No. 72.

--When these teams met at The Tad Pad earlier this season, Mississippi St. captured an 80-75 road win over the Rebels as a 3 ½-point underdog. Dee Bost was the spark for the Bulldogs, exploding for 25 points and six assists. Kodi Augustus chipped in with 13 points and 12 boards. Warren had a team-high 15 points for Ole Miss, but he was only 5-of-17 from the field.

--The ‘over’ is 10-2-1 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these in-state rivals.

--The ‘under’ is 10-8 overall for MSU, but the ‘over’ is 5-1 in its home games at The Hump.

--The ‘over’ is 10-8-1 overall for Ole Miss.

--Tip-off is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga**

--LVSC opened Gonzaga (19-4 SU, 11-8-1 ATS) as an eight-point favorite, but most books had the Bulldogs adjusted to six-point ‘chalk’ by early this morning. The total is 151, while the Gaels are plus-220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

--Saint Mary’s (21-3 SU, 15-7 ATS) has won six in a row since losing at home to Gonzaga. The Gaels are just 3-3 ATS during their winning streak, but they have covered the number in both road assignments, blowout wins at Loyola-Marymount (85-67) and at Pepperdine (87-71).

--Randy Bennett’s team can retain sole possession of first place in the WCC with a win here. The Gaels, who have an RPI of 44 this week, are 8-1 in league play. Meanwhile, Mark Few’s squad is 7-1 against WCC foes. A win would give the Gaels a 1 ½-game advantage over the Bulldogs.

--Gonzaga bounced back from a stunning overtime loss at San Francisco two Saturday ago to thump Portland before going to Memphis and emerging victorious. The Bulldogs punished the Pilots 76-49 last Thursday as nine-point home favorites. Matt Bouldin had a team-high 20 points in the win.

--Bouldin was also the catalyst in Saturday’s 66-58 win at Memphis with the ‘Zags catching 4 ½ points. They hooked up money-line backers with a generous plus-180 return (paid $175 on $100 wagers). Bouldin had 19 points against the Tigers.

--Saint Mary’s is coming off Saturday’s 73-57 win over San Francisco as a 16 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Omar Samhan dominated the Dons, finishing with 24 points, 10 rebounds and seven blocked shots. All five SM’s starters scored in double figures including Matthew Dellavedova, who had 11 points, seven assists, six rebounds and two steals.

--The ‘over’ is 14-6 overall for Gonzaga, 6-1 in its home games. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in three of the Bulldogs’ last four outings (regardless of venue).

--Saint Mary’s has seen the ‘under’ prevail in three straight games, but the ‘over’ is 13-7-1 overall for the Gaels.

--ESPN2 will have television coverage at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Memphis senior center Pierre Henderson-Niles has left the program in what first-year head coach Josh Pastner has termed a “mutual” parting of ways. Henderson-Niles was averaging 5.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game and had started 16 of 23 games for the Tigers. However, his minutes had decreased in recent weeks. Memphis played without Henderson-Niles for the first time last night, beating UCF 76-70. The Golden Knights easily took the money as 16 ½-point road underdogs.

--Jon Scheyer scored 24 points to propel Duke past North Carolina in Chapel Hill last night. The Blue Devils won 64-54 as 5 1/2-point road favorites, ending a three-game losing streak to UNC. The Tar Heels' loss makes it a given the defending champs must win the ACC Tournament in order to qualify for the Big Dance.

--Indiana had covered the spread in four straight double-digit underdog spots until Wednesday’s 69-52 home loss to Oho St. as a 10 ½-point ‘dog. The Buckeyes are looking dangerous.

--Wednesday’s Biggest Losers:
1-Northwestern
2-Florida
3-Charlotte
4-Rhode Island
5-FSU

--UF was an abysmal 10-of-23 from the charity stripe in last night’s 77-71 loss at South Carolina as a two-point road underdog. The Gators committed 20 turnovers in falling to 6-4 in SEC play. The Gamecocks kept their slim at-large hopes alive with the victory.

--Northwestern suffered a huge loss last night at Iowa (RPI of 193), going down 78-65 as a three-point road favorite. The loss drops the Wildcats to 5-7 in Big Ten play. They have a monster home game Sunday vs. Minnesota.

--I see three mid-majors capable of making surprise runs to the Sweet 16, and possibly beyond: Cornell, Siena and Richmond.

--Speaking of the Spiders, they went into Rhode Island last night and won by a 69-67 count. The Rams, with an RPI of 14, had previously only lost once at home (to Temple).

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The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets + GOM'S

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