Tweet
Absolutely HORRIBLE day yesterday, we'll try to rebound with some good value.
Tennessee -6.5
Buffalo +3
Houston +6
NY Jets -4.5
Tennessee Titans (-6.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
This is one of those strange games where the Titans should be 10-14 point favorites. Instead, they are laying just 6.5 points to a Falcon team that blew a 17-point lead last week to New Orleans. Why is the line so small? There are 4 scenarios with AT LEAST a 75.6% success rate that the Falcons find themselves in today.
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record.
(32-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.1%)
Play On - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season.
(32-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.2%)
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ATLANTA) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points.
(27-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%)
Play Against - Road favorites (TENNESSEE) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season.
(31-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.6%)
It is extremely rare that you will ever find such an overwhelming set of trends that apply to a game that seems to have blowout written all over it. Are we taking Atlanta here getting just below a TD? No way!! TENNESSEE is 10-1 ATS in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA since 1992 .
TENNESSEE is 3-0 straight up against ATLANTA since 1992 .
We’ll take our chances here and let the Falcons beat McNair and Co. SU. That’s the only way we can see Tennessee not covering!!
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (+3.5)
Is Buffalo really as bad as they have looked over the last 5 games? I mean, when you lose to Houston AT HOME and don’t score but 1 TD in 3 games, you have problems. So why then is the line at 3? Indy should spank them right? WRONG! Drew Bledsoe seems to step up in these division rivalries and today will be no exception. The Bills D has given up an average of just 11.6 PPG at home while scoring 20.6. WR Marvin Harrison (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game, that’s certainly bodes well for Buffalo. There are more injuries on Indy than usual and they will be starting players that are deep on the depth chart. Here are some trends that apply to this game that give Buffalo the edge:
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
(34-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%)
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(27-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.4%)
Play Against - Road favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 200 or more total yards in their previous game.
(30-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.1%)
We like Buffalo in this spot for the upset simply because too many injuries+ a banged up Colts team+ Indy looking forward to 2 consecutive conference games against New England and Tennessee= Buffalo covering!
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (+6)
Too many injuries to prime players like Ted Johnson, Deion Branch, Tom Brady, Roosevelt Colvin, and Troy Brown. New England's D is pretty good but Tony Banks and Domanick Davis have this Texan team playing fairly well. Add in potential rookie of the year Andre Johnson and this team looks poised to upset at home!!
Good luck,
The Ham mer
Tennessee -6.5
Buffalo +3
Houston +6
NY Jets -4.5
Tennessee Titans (-6.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
This is one of those strange games where the Titans should be 10-14 point favorites. Instead, they are laying just 6.5 points to a Falcon team that blew a 17-point lead last week to New Orleans. Why is the line so small? There are 4 scenarios with AT LEAST a 75.6% success rate that the Falcons find themselves in today.
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record.
(32-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.1%)
Play On - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season.
(32-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.2%)
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ATLANTA) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points.
(27-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%)
Play Against - Road favorites (TENNESSEE) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season.
(31-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.6%)
It is extremely rare that you will ever find such an overwhelming set of trends that apply to a game that seems to have blowout written all over it. Are we taking Atlanta here getting just below a TD? No way!! TENNESSEE is 10-1 ATS in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA since 1992 .
TENNESSEE is 3-0 straight up against ATLANTA since 1992 .
We’ll take our chances here and let the Falcons beat McNair and Co. SU. That’s the only way we can see Tennessee not covering!!
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (+3.5)
Is Buffalo really as bad as they have looked over the last 5 games? I mean, when you lose to Houston AT HOME and don’t score but 1 TD in 3 games, you have problems. So why then is the line at 3? Indy should spank them right? WRONG! Drew Bledsoe seems to step up in these division rivalries and today will be no exception. The Bills D has given up an average of just 11.6 PPG at home while scoring 20.6. WR Marvin Harrison (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game, that’s certainly bodes well for Buffalo. There are more injuries on Indy than usual and they will be starting players that are deep on the depth chart. Here are some trends that apply to this game that give Buffalo the edge:
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
(34-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%)
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(27-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.4%)
Play Against - Road favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 200 or more total yards in their previous game.
(30-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.1%)
We like Buffalo in this spot for the upset simply because too many injuries+ a banged up Colts team+ Indy looking forward to 2 consecutive conference games against New England and Tennessee= Buffalo covering!
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (+6)
Too many injuries to prime players like Ted Johnson, Deion Branch, Tom Brady, Roosevelt Colvin, and Troy Brown. New England's D is pretty good but Tony Banks and Domanick Davis have this Texan team playing fairly well. Add in potential rookie of the year Andre Johnson and this team looks poised to upset at home!!
Good luck,
The Ham mer
Comment