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Good luck all. Might upgrade play. Props to follow.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
1* N.O. +6 (bodog) over Indy
It's here…the big game! This game is so analyzed that usually the oddsmakers are right on the money. But, sometimes they have to compensate for the abnormal large amount of money that will be wagered on the Super Bowl. I think that is what happened this year. My math system actually has this game at a pick 'em. Now, Vegas knows that if they made this a pick 'em that every square from here to Bangladesh would be all over the Colts (65% of wagers are on Indy as of Saturday afternoon). Bettors have too short of a memory. If this game was on a neutral field during week 14 (when they were undefeated) it would probably Indy -2 (to compensate for the nation's love of Peyton Manning). But, because the Saints have not been as dominant, they fail to look at the entire body of work. The Saints average 4.5 YPR (5th in the NFL) and Brees averages 8.3 YPPA (3rd). I think they will be able to run effectively versus a Colts D that allows 4.3 YPR (16th) and 127 YPG (24th). I dont think Freeney will play and if he does he won't be effective and it will hurt the Colts. On the other side of the ball Indy has the worst rushing offense in the league, but they had this all year and still failed to lose a meaningful game. As usual, it comes down to stopping Manning but here's a hint, nobody can do that. If you pressure him he'll hit the hot route and if you don't he just sits back and picks you apart. But, Manning has been known to choke in the postseason. Remember, Manning's record is only 8-8 in the postseason and he has thrown 26 TD's to his 17 INT's (as compared to a 2:1 TD:INT ratio during his regular season career). Even when the Colts won the Super Bowl he had a terrible postseason throwing only 2 TD's to his 6 INT's for an abysmal 66.8 passer rating. Peyton's brilliance stems from his study of film, but I think the Sean Peyton will have some different looks in store for him. In a game which neither team will effectively stop the other give me the points with the Saints! I think New Orleans has a good chance for an upset and I like the money line (+180) for a small play in addition to taking them +5.5.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
1* N.O. +6 (bodog) over Indy
It's here…the big game! This game is so analyzed that usually the oddsmakers are right on the money. But, sometimes they have to compensate for the abnormal large amount of money that will be wagered on the Super Bowl. I think that is what happened this year. My math system actually has this game at a pick 'em. Now, Vegas knows that if they made this a pick 'em that every square from here to Bangladesh would be all over the Colts (65% of wagers are on Indy as of Saturday afternoon). Bettors have too short of a memory. If this game was on a neutral field during week 14 (when they were undefeated) it would probably Indy -2 (to compensate for the nation's love of Peyton Manning). But, because the Saints have not been as dominant, they fail to look at the entire body of work. The Saints average 4.5 YPR (5th in the NFL) and Brees averages 8.3 YPPA (3rd). I think they will be able to run effectively versus a Colts D that allows 4.3 YPR (16th) and 127 YPG (24th). I dont think Freeney will play and if he does he won't be effective and it will hurt the Colts. On the other side of the ball Indy has the worst rushing offense in the league, but they had this all year and still failed to lose a meaningful game. As usual, it comes down to stopping Manning but here's a hint, nobody can do that. If you pressure him he'll hit the hot route and if you don't he just sits back and picks you apart. But, Manning has been known to choke in the postseason. Remember, Manning's record is only 8-8 in the postseason and he has thrown 26 TD's to his 17 INT's (as compared to a 2:1 TD:INT ratio during his regular season career). Even when the Colts won the Super Bowl he had a terrible postseason throwing only 2 TD's to his 6 INT's for an abysmal 66.8 passer rating. Peyton's brilliance stems from his study of film, but I think the Sean Peyton will have some different looks in store for him. In a game which neither team will effectively stop the other give me the points with the Saints! I think New Orleans has a good chance for an upset and I like the money line (+180) for a small play in addition to taking them +5.5.
5-2 on props, saints winner and saints ml winner! What an end to a year!
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