Announcement

**pm530** · 02-01-2010, 01:59 PM

NFL
Dunkel Index

New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
The Colts look to build on their 7-1-1 ATS record in their last 9 games as a favorite. Indianapolis is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7

Game 101-102: New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 132.929; Indianapolis 139.129
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6; 57
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5; 56
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5); Over

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**pm530** · 02-01-2010, 02:00 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 7

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NEW ORLEANS (15 - 3) vs. INDIANAPOLIS (16 - 2) - 2/7/2010, 6:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History

INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**pm530** · 02-01-2010, 02:01 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, February 7th

Super Bowl XLIV TV: CBS

New Orleans vs. Indianapolis, 6:25 ET

New Orleans:
8-0 ATS vs. AFC
7-0 Over in playoff games

Indianapolis:
5-0 ATS on grass field
5-1 Under if total is 49.5 or more

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**pm530** · 02-01-2010, 02:02 PM

NFL

Sunday, February 7

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Trend Report
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6:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. INDIANAPOLIS
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Indianapolis is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games

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**pm530** · 02-01-2010, 02:03 PM

NFL

Sunday, February 7
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Super Bowl over/under line reaches 57 at multiple books
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The highest total in Super Bowl history is still climbing. The over/under number for Sunday's NFL finale opened at 55.5 but several shops are now dealing 57.

Oddsmakers set a total at 50 or higher in just six of the prior 43 Super Bowls. The under cashed in four of those games.

Previous to this year, the largest over/under number was 54.5 two years ago when the New England Patriots played the New York Giants. The final score, 17-14, was well below the closing total.

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**pm530** · 02-03-2010, 02:42 AM

NFL

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NFL - News and Notes
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Injured Freeney still hopes to play in Super Bowl

February 2, 2010: MIAMI (AP) - Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney still hopes to play in the Super Bowl despite a torn ligament in his right ankle.

"Hopefully, towards the end of the week it starts to get better,'' Freeney said at Tuesday's media day. "The decision will come later on in the week. It's kind of early now.''

An All-Pro player, Freeney wore a pair of flip-flops to the morning session. His injured ankle was unwrapped.

"Very discouraging'' was how he described his inability to practice for Sunday's NFL title game against the New Orleans Saints.

"The competitor in me says they'll never stop me from being on the field,'' he said with a laugh before adding: "There's some pain there definitely, with throwing everything at it, all types of techniques, to find the best thing to get this thing as good as possible. You name it, I've probably done it.''

Freeney injured the ankle in the AFC championship game against the New York Jets and said the chances of working out later this week weren't good.

He's the only starter on either team who might miss the game because of injury.

Freeney said he's enlisted the help of chiropractors, slept in an oxygen chamber, used ice, regular therapy and anything else team doctors prescribed, to try to get the ankle to heal.

Despite everything, his teammates still believe Freeney will be on the field Sunday.

Defensive lineman Raheem Brock, who would replace Freeney in the lineup, took it a step further.

"I think he'll be back and playing third downs. And I think he'll be effective, until I see something different,'' Brock said.

Freeney, the former league sacks champ, led the Colts with 13 1/2 sacks and is considered the team's defensive leader.

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**pm530** · 02-05-2010, 12:52 AM

NFL

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NFL - News and Notes - Update
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February 4, 2010

Report: Freeney will test ankle in Friday's practice

Indianapolis Colts injured defensive end Dwight Freeney is planning to test his injured ankle in Friday's practice, according to the Associated Press.

Freeney has not practiced since suffering a Grade 3 sprain of his ankle in the closing minutes of the AFC championship vs. the New York Jets.

The five-time Pro Bowler told ESPN he will attempt to play in Sunday's Super Bowl XLIV against the New Orleans Saints.

Colts rookie coach Jim Caldwell said his star defensive end, who recorded 13.5 sacks this season, is rapidly improving.

Freeney has at least a 50 percent tear of at least one ligament in the joint. He said he has been walking on the Miami beaches to strengthen the joint and also is receiving electric stimulation to hopefully speed the healing process.

"As long as I can go out there and have some agility and be able to push off ... I'll be fine," Freeney told ESPN. "If I do have to alter my game, so be it. I'm going to try everything in my power to go out there."

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**pm530** · 02-05-2010, 01:19 AM

NFL

Sunday, February 7

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Misc. Super Bowl Information
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Miami hosts this year’s Super Bowl XLIV matchup between New Orleans and Indianapolis, and being as how the Colts’ Super Bowl win in the same city three years ago was marred by quagmire-like conditions, a game that went under the total, it would be a wise move to check the forecasts on Sunday morning before hitting the confirm button on you wagers. Ironically, the pointspread for that game (Colts -6.5 over Bears) is similar to this year’s contest (Colts -5.5 over Saints), despite the fact that again, the NFC team boasts better all-around stats from the season. Does that mean we should expect a repeat of that game, or is New Orleans fully capable of pulling the upset? While we’re thinking of it, is there anything else from past Super Bowl action that can be used to handicap this year’s game? Let’s dig through the history of the Super Bowl and see what we can come up with.

Before beginning, one word of caution always has to accompany an article surrounding Super Bowl handicapping, and that is to remember that it is simply one game, the singular most wagered event in all of sports, and thus heavily weighted by oddsmakers to attract public action. How else could one explain that Indy is the favorite of 5.5-points, despite having a lesser scoring differential against a weaker schedule? Let’s face it, the line was initially set up at Indy -4 because of the “Peyton Manning Factor”, and has been bet upward since due to bettors’ fascination with him. Still, being as how it is just one game, I caution you to wager wisely, as no one game should outweigh a season’s worth of hard work or a springtime of gambling debt.

The Super Bowl game line is set up differently than one in the regular season, simply because of the vast number of amateurs partaking in the betting festivities for perhaps their only time all year. It’s kind of like going to church on Christmas, with the priest adjusting his message for the rare visitors. In the same way, oddsmakers adjust their line-setting policies. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. If you do a search on “NFL Power Ratings” currently, you’ll find that most sites indicate the line for this year’s game should be between Indy -2 and New Orleans -2. The current line is much higher. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side. That is the reason for the inflated line.

The other challenge that faces bettors is that the Super Bowl offers some variation from the normal handicapping routine. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. If you choose to wager on numerous different options, be prepared to find yourself conflicted near the end of the game. As always, it does pay off to do your homework.

Hopefully, with everything we’re offering for Sunday’s New Orleans-Indianapolis showdown, you will at least go into the betting process prepared. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 43 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to make educated selections.

Super Bowl Stat Angles

Because of the extra week of preparation and the neutral field environment, neither team in a Super Bowl game will have any artificial advantages. Both are quality teams with exceptional coaching staffs, so they will be prepared to play. As was proven two years ago in the Giants mega-upset of the Patriots, there is no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl. What I’m getting at is that winning games of this magnitude comes down to execution. Some teams might show up planning to pull a few gimmicks, but they won’t be able to do so for the full 60 minutes. The eventual winner is the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays, and avoids catastrophic mistakes like turning the ball over. In past Super Bowls, the team that accomplished these goals has nearly always came out on top. Those familiar with the Stat Fox Sheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.

Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that I like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.

Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-8 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).

Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 38-5 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).

In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (85%). Amazingly, the last three times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last three world championships.

Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-12 SU & 30-10-3 ATS (75%).

Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-2 SU & 32-5-1 ATS (86%). In ’09, Arizona ran for more yards, turned the ball over fewer times, and possessed the ball longer than Pittsburgh to cover the pointspread, yet lost on the scoreboard.

Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.

Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems

Last year I cited the 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh as the game that dramatically changed the route to becoming a champion in the NFL. That was the first time a #6 seed emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. Since then we have seen wildcard teams Indianapolis & the Giants win titles. In last year’s game, we had a team that won just nine games in the regular season come within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. While the Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion, they still managed to cover the pointspread, again defying all that we had come to learn about Super Bowl handicapping prior to ’06. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs. Well, thankfully, order has been restored to the NFL playoff system, as two #1 seeds will be playing for all the marbles on Sunday, for the first time in 16 years.

With that cautionary note out of the way, here are some historical Super Bowl trends, stats, and other tidbits that you can either use to handicap Sunday’s game, or at the very least, offer up at your parties to show off in front of game-watching friends. While on that subject, you can start off by “wow-ing” your company with this bit of interesting Super Bowl history: In the last nine Super Bowl games, there have been NINE different NFC representatives, but just four from the AFC. Enjoy the trends, where appropriate I will give the most recent game trend.

ATS and Money Line Trends

Favorites in the Super Bowl are 30-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-19-3 (52.5%). However, over the past eight years, the underdog owns a 6-2 ATS (75.0%) edge. The only two favorites to win and cover in that span were Indy in ’07 and Pittsburgh in ’06.

Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. It doesn’t appear that this year’s line will reach that high, but be sure to follow throughout the week.

The straight up winner is 34-6-3 ATS (85%) in the 43 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-3 ATS the past six years.

The NFC holds a 22-21 SU and 22-18-3 (55%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in ’03.

#1 seeds from the NFC are on a 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS slide since 2001 in the Super Bowl.

The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-11-2 ATS (8.3%) in the last 14 Super Bowl games! This would be our golden nugget except for the fact that both Indianapolis and New Orleans were #1 seeds out of their respective conferences.

The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

Teams playing in their first Super Bowl against an experienced club are 5-2-1 ATS in their L8.

In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.1 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.4 PPG, an average winning margin 14.7 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.

There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).

Over/Under Trends

The most important point to note about the total for this year’s Super Bowl, set at 56.5 at presstime, is the HIGHEST EVER in the history of the game.

Overall, in the 25 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the OVER is 15-9-1.

There have been 45.4 PPG scored in the Super Bowl on average, however, over the last five years, that figure is just 40.6. In fact, last year’s game snapped a string of four straight UNDER’s, and was the highest scoring Super Bowl since ’04, despite having the lowest total.

The last five Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 47 or higher have gone UNDER.

The ’09 Super Bowl was one of only 10 in history that saw both teams reach the 20-point mark. All seven that had totals were OVER’s.

The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 15 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 21.5 PPG. However, a caveat, the last two OVER games (’04 & ’09) were decided by 3 & 4 points.

NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis

In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles by round in the playoffs, here are some trends and the qualifying play for this Sunday’s game based upon teams’ stats headed into the big game. If the stat isn’t listed here, there wasn’t any significant trend forming.

Teams with the edge against the line on the Stat Fox Outplay Factor Rating have lost four straight games against the spread.

- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS

The team with the better won-lost record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-9-2 ATS (31%) slide.
- Qualifiers for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS

The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 1-8-1 ATS (10%) over the last decade.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS

The team that converts a better percentage of 3rd down attempts headed into the Super Bowl is just 2-7-1 ATS (20%) in the L10 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS

The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per rushing attempt on offense is 9-5-2 ATS (64%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: On NEW ORLEANS

The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per passing attempt on offense is just 4-8-2 ATS (64%) in the L14 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS

The team with the edge in offensive yards per point is on a 2-6 ATS (25%) slide in the L8 Super Bowl games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS

The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 0-6 ATS (0%) over the L6 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS

The Super Bowl team that allows yards per rushing attempt on defense is 3-8-2 ATS (27%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS

If you were counting, that was five Against New Orleans, and four either Against Indianapolis or On the Saints. Is that a hint of what’s to come? Enjoy the action, and good luck from everyone at Stat Fox!

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**pm530** · 02-05-2010, 01:24 AM

NFL

Sunday, February 7

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NFL Weather Report
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Super Bowl XLIV weather report: No rain on Sunday

There is rain in the forecast for the greater Miami area this weekend, but it should stop sometime Saturday and allow Super Bowl XLIV to be a dry affair.

The long-range forecast calls for clouds moving in Friday, with rain in the evening - likely well after the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints holds their final practices - and thundershowers overnight.

The rain will continue into Saturday morning, when the teams will conduct final walkthroughs, but stop by midday. No more precipitation is scheduled for the area until Wednesday.

Temperatures will be in the 50s on Saturday night, move into the 60s during Sunday and back into the 50s for gametime, helping to dry the field and create good conditions for a pair of teams that rely on players with quick bursts of speed such as Reggie Wayne and Reggie Bush.

Oddsmakers have Super Bowl's total as high as 57 points heading into the weekend. The Colts are currently 4.5-point favorites.

The last time the Colts were in the Super Bowl was three years ago, when the game was also in Miami, and played in a steady rain for the first time in history. The weather did not seem to significantly impact the Colts, who amassed 430 total yards in a 29-17 win over the Chicago Bears that just played under the 47-point total.

Super Bowl VIII between the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings at Rice Stadium in Houston had some intermittent drizzle but no heavy rain.

Outdoor games are not common for either the Colts or Saints, both of whom play their home games in climate-controlled domes. However, both teams won games at Miami during the regular season.

In Week 2, the Colts had the ball for less than 15 minutes but made the most of it and Peyton Manning hit a pair of long touchdown passes in a 27-23 win over the Dolphins as 3-point favorites in a Monday night game.

In Week 7, the Saints dug themselves a 24-3 hole in the second quarter but stormed back for a 46-34 win over the Dolphins as 6-point favorites in a late afternoon Sunday game, overcoming a season-high three interceptions by Drew Brees.

The Colts played just five outdoor games during the season, with road contests at Arizona, St. Louis and Houston. They won and covered the first four before resting their regulars for most of a 30-7 loss at Buffalo in the regular-seaosn finale.

It was 12 degrees for the game in Buffalo but at least 56 degrees for each of their other outdoor contests.

The Saints also played six outdoor games, with two of their road contests at domes in St. Louis and Atlanta. They were 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread, escaping with a 33-30 win at Washington as 9-point favorites in Week 13 and losing 23-10 at Carolina as 10-point underdogs in Week 17, when they also rested their starters.

It was 36 degrees for the game in Washington and 30 degrees for the contest in Carolina. All of their other road games were at least 64 degrees.

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**pm530** · 02-07-2010, 03:52 AM

NFL
Write-up

Super Bowl XLIV

Indianapolis hasn't lost a game this year when they've gone all-out to win; in the NFC title game, the Saints forced five turnovers, and were life-and-death tp win, even at home. They ain't getting five turnovers against the Colts, who are an offensive machine led by one of the greatest QBs of all-time. New Orleans will score, especially if Freeney's ankle keeps him from being a factor in pass rush, but hard to imagine Colts losing this game. I'll say Colts win 38-31.

From: Armadillo
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**pm530** · 02-07-2010, 04:20 AM

Bettors best friend: Sunday's wagering tips
(edited for NFL info.)

Sunday, February 7

Line to keep an eye on

More and more books are moving their Super Bowl spreads upward. By Saturday evening, the majority of shops were offering -5 in favor of the Colts with a few 5.5s on the board and even one 6.

In Vegas, Hard Rock and Planet Hollywood were both working with 5.5 on Saturday night.

The Super Bowl total appears to be on the rise with a handful of books now carrying 57 and most of the other dealing 56.5.

Who’s hot

Indianapolis is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games.

Who’s not

Jeremy Shockey has totaled 15 receptions, 170 yards and one TD in his last six games.

Game of the day

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 56.5)

Notable quotable

"I think he'll be back and playing third downs. And I think he'll be effective, until I see something different."

-- Colts lineman Raheem Brock said when asked if he expects Dwight Freeney to play on Sunday. Brock would see the majority of the playing time at defensive end if Freeney is limited in the Super Bowl.

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**pm530** · 02-07-2010, 05:10 AM

NFL

Sunday, February 7

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What bettors need to know: Super Bowl XLIV
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New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 56.5)

In what is expected to be the most widely viewed Super Bowl in NFL history, the hype is nearly suffocating.

The New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts will meet in Super Bowl XLIV for a chance to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy and be crowned world champions.

The Colts appear in their fourth Super Bowl in franchise history and all three prior championships were played in Miami.

New Orleans secured its first Super Bowl berth and, amid the city’s recent hardships, many are calling the Saints a team of destiny.

Weather or not

Showers smattered South Florida during the week leading up to the Super Bowl, but weekend thunderstorms that were expected have been removed from the forecast.

The weather at kickoff is projected to be around 63 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures will dip into the upper 50s as the game goes on and a north-northwest wind (diagonally across field) of 5-7 mph will be present.

"We're prepared for anything," Colts linebacker Gary Brackett said. "Obviously, you play in Miami for that great weather; but if it's rain, we've done that before and we'll know how to handle ourselves.”

Line dance

The line for the game has incurred the greatest degree of fluctuation in recent Super Bowl history.

And despite the current economic climate, Vegas insiders expect this to be the most wagered on championship game ever.

The majority of sportsbooks on the strip opened with a spread of 3 or 3.5 points in favor of the Colts. The earliest of action actually came in on the Saints, but within a half hour sharps had bumped the spread to 4.5 or 5.

This is where the spread became available to most consumers via the offshore market and by Monday morning after the conference championship games the number had elevated to 5.5 or 6.

The spread remained stagnant until the Monday of Super Bowl week when the significant injury of Dwight Freeney was announced. At this point, Saints backers surfaced and the number dipped back down 5 at most shops.

By Thursday morning, the majority of books were offering 4.5 points and all the favorite-heavy outlets had dropped to 5. Currently, a few places are still holding the handful of points but most are working with 4.5.

The Super Bowl total opened in Vegas at 55 or 55.5 while most offshore books posted an initial number of 56.

With two high-octane offenses set to square off, the total steadily crept upward during the past two weeks and a few 57s can be found out there but most windows have held the number of 56.5.

Moneylines got up to as high as -230 for the Colts, but have come back down to as low as -180 (Saints +160) during this week’s overall decrease.

Earlier in the week, three experts in the industry projected where the spread would settle at kickoff and one guessed 4, the other 5.5 and a third 6, further driving home the point that this is a volatile game for bettors. Another Vegas oddsmaker predicted the apex for the total would be 57.

The midweek numbers collected revealed that 68 percent of the spread action was coming in on Indianapolis and 76 percent of the money for the total was taking the over.

Infirmary report

The most impactful injury surfaced Monday when news broke that All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney had torn a ligament in his ankle.

Considered by many to be the Colts best player on the defensive side of the ball, Freeney has not fully tested the ankle since the injury. The team’s medical staff has been treating the injury with an oxygen chamber and Freeney has attempted to strengthen the ankle by walking barefoot on South Beach.

Historically, players have sucked it up and played in the Super Bowl because it is the biggest game of their careers. Guys like Hines Ward, Tom Brady and Terrell Owens all came into the game injured but played.

“This is the biggest game there is and I am going to try to do everything in my power to go back out there,” Freeney said. “If (team officials) say Saturday, 'You can do this, but it would really be risky to your career,' then I'm not going to do that.”

The fact that Freeney has never once come out and unequivocally stated he was playing has to leave some doubt of his availability. At media day on Tuesday, Freeney was reported as saying, “If I'm not playing, we should be all right."

Later in the week, Freeney reiterated his intention to play but again, it came with a disclaimer, “As long as I can go out there and have some agility and be able to push off…I'll be fine.”

Colts starting cornerback Jerraud Powers is also questionable for the game with a left foot injury. The rookie practiced on Friday this week and insists he will be ready.

"It's coming along fine," Powers said. "I'm starting to cut and move on it, and there's no doubt in my mind that I'll be out there Sunday.”

Reggie Wayne aggravated his knee in Friday’s practice but it wasn’t a major setback. Starting left guard Ryan Lilja was added to the Indianapolis injury report with a sore back but returned to practice Friday and is expected to play.

The Saints roster heads into the game healthy for the most part. Only fourth-string running back Lynell Hamilton missed practice Wednesday but a few other key players were limited.

Tight end Jeremy Shockey, safety Darren Sharper and linebacker Jonathan Vilma have all been dealing with knee problems throughout the postseason but went through the primary drills in limited fashion during practice this week.

Shockey’s gingerly manner displayed on the field the last two games has translated into an adjustment with the Super Bowl props. Shockey caught a single pass during the NFC championship and registered only three receptions in the Divisional round. Oddsmakers have given Shockey an over/under reception total of 3.

Stat pack

New Orleans boasted the top-ranked total offense in 2009 with 403.8 yards from scrimmage per game. The Saints also had the No. 1 scoring offense (31.9 ppg), fourth-best passing offense (272.2 ypg) and a sixth-ranked rushing offense (131.6 ypg).

Indianapolis flaunted a Top-10 total offense as well at 363.1 yards per outing and the No. 2-ranked passing offense with a 282.2 ypg average. The team’s scoring proficiency wasn’t as prolific as in years past, but still managed to post 29.0 ppg.

The ground game was the crutch of the Colts offensive attack, ranking last in the league at 80.9 ypg and 3.5 yards per attempt. The last team to finish last in rushing and reach the Super Bowl was the 2008 Arizona Cardinals.

Both teams ranked in the bottom half of the league standings in team defense with Indy surrendering 339.2 ypg and New Orleans giving up 357.8 ypg.

The Saints struggled against the pass this season, finishing ranked 26th in the league with 235.6 ypg relinquished through the air. The Colts defensive deficiencies came in the run-stopping department where they gave up more than 125 yards per outing.

New Orleans ranked No. 4 in the league in kick return average (24.4 ypr) this year and will look to attack Indy’s kick return defense that finished second-to-last (25.3 ypr).

The Colts defense has flexed its muscles this postseason, much like it did during the Super Bowl run in 2007. Indianapolis has held its two opponents to an average of 10.0 ppg and recorded three interceptions.

The Saints, who have one of the most opportunistic defenses in the NFL, also have three picks during the playoffs as well as five forced fumbles.

Both teams have experienced a surplus of points this postseason with the Colts averaging 25.0 points in their two games and the Saints totaling 38.0 ppg.

Manning exposed the league’s top-ranked pass defense in the conference championship game for 377 yards and a trio of scores while Drew Brees has thrown for three touchdowns in each of the Saints playoff games.

So we meet again

The last time these two teams met was in Week 1 of the 2007 campaign. While there has been some turnover from those rosters, many of the core players and coaches remain the same.

The Colts crushed New Orleans at the RCA Dome, 41-10, as 5.5-point favorites. Manning completed 18-of-30 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns. Wideout Reggie Wayne hauled in seven receptions for 115 and two scores while Joseph Addai rumbled for 118 yards and touchdown.

The Saints offense could only muster a field goal in the game with the team’s only touchdown coming from a 55-yard fumble return.

Brees threw for a measly 192 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. New Orleans was outscored 31-0 in the second half.

"It just felt like we never got in sync," Brees said after the game.

"Our inability to convert third downs and keep the ball hurt us,” said coach Sean Payton.

Bulletin board material

While there haven’t been any guarantees or much trash-talking from the players heading into this Super Bowl, a couple of coaches have provided some locker room motivation.

Last week, Saints defensive coordinator Greg Williams outlined one way to beat the Colts.

"The big thing is that [Manning] throws the ball so early that we're going to have to do a good job of finding ways to get to him and when we do get to him we're going to have to make sure he gets a couple 'remember me' shots when we get there,” he said. “And the only thing you’d like for me to say is that if it happens you hope he doesn’t get back up and play again.

"A lot of times guys are going to try to go down and not take a shot. We want to beat them to the ground. We say they're not down until they bounce twice.”

Former Colts head coach, Tony Dungy, was obviously biased when predicting the winner of the Super Bowl but gave a confident declaration Indianapolis would emerge victorious.

"I think they're going to be so far ahead that people are going to say, 'Oh, ho-hum, [Manning] played a good game, they won by two scores, the Colts won their second championship.

"He's going to have those rings Sunday night. I don't think [the game] is going to be close."

Prop shop

Prop bets have become an appendage of Super Bowl betting. Some sportsbooks offer close to 500 of them and just about anything one can imagine can be wagered on.

Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton said a Drew Brees touchdown total prop has seen the most action this week. The over/under is set at 1.5 TDs and the juice at midweek was -180. Brees failed to reach the two-touchdown mark in only six of his 18 games played this season.

Another popular prop bet is the Eli Manning appearance total. The number of 2.5 (-150) moved to 3 (-160) overnight this week at Bodog.com. In the final few minutes of the 2008 Super Bowl when Eli was leading his team down the field, the TV cameras cut to Peyton four times.

Facts and trends

- If a team scores more than 32 points in the Super Bowl they are a perfect 18-0 straight up. The Saints have averaged 38.0 ppg this postseason while the Colts team total for the game is set at 31.

- Super Bowl favorites that score less than 30 points are 3-11 ATS in the last 20 years.

- The NFC has only won one Super Bowl in the last six years.

- The NFC is 6-2 SU when the same seeds face each other in the Super Bowl.

- Teams that lead at halftime in the Super Bowl are 33-8 straight up.

- In the 43-year history of the Super Bowl, only nine times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the spread.

- The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight Super Bowls.

- Teams that win the Super Bowl time of possession battle are 30-10-3 ATS.

- The average total in Super Bowls played in Miami is 45.9 points.

- The total has gone over in 15 of last 23 Super Bowls.

- Four Super Bowls in Miami were determined by four points or fewer.

- Not one Super Bowl has gone into overtime.

- Indianapolis went 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS versus the NFC in 2009, winning those games by a margin of 19.5 points.

- New Orleans went 4-0 SU and ATS against the AFC this season with a 16.8 ppg winning margin.

- The Saints are 1-6 ATS since beating the Patriots on Nov. 30

- The Colts went 7-1 ATS when they scored 30 points or more this season

- Indianapolis is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games on grass.

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**pm530** · 02-07-2010, 05:23 AM

NFL

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NFL - News and Notes - Update
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Saturday, February 6

Report: Freeney to be active barring setback

The Indianapolis Colts will activate injured defensive end Dwight Freeney for Sunday's Super Bowl XLIV barring any setbacks, according to ESPN.com.

Freeney will test the ankle for the first time in two weeks before the game against the New Orleans Saints and will likely suit up unless his Grade 3 sprain worsens.

Freeney, the Colts' top pass rusher, will likely be limited to third-down situations only. Veteran Raheem Brock will play the majority of downs in his place.

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**Udog** · 02-07-2010, 11:00 AM

NFL

Sunday, February 7

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Tips and Trends
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New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts [CBS | 6:25 PM ET]

Saints: Many casual fans and experts alike think this New Orleans team is a a team of destiny. Based on their performance in the NFC Championship, it would be hard to disagree. The Saints were able to overcome many obstacles in their improbable 31-28 SU win against the Vikings. The Saints enter their 1st Super Bowl ever with a record of 15-3 SU and 9-9 ATS this entire season to date. New Orleans was 8-2 SU at home, and 7-1 SU on the road this season. The Saints were 4-4 ATS on the road this season, having lost their past 3 road games ATS. In fact, the Saints have lost 6 of their past 7 games ATS heading into the Super Bowl today. Today will mark only the 2nd time this season the Saints will be the listed underdog, losing their only previous attempt both SU and ATS this season against Carolina. New Orleans is averaging 38 PPG during the postseason, after averaging nearly 33 PPG during the regular season. The Saints easily had the most prolific offense in the NFL this season thanks to the arm of QB Drew Brees.

Saints are 1-6 ATS last 7 games overall.
Over is 19-9 last 28 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - DE Dwight Freeney (ankle) is questionable.
WR Reggie Wayne (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Colts (-5, O/U 57): Indianapolis has had more than just a super season, as they have been on top of the NFL all season long. The Colts were undefeated for the majority of the season, before pulling their starters in Week 16 in a SU loss to the Jets. Indianapolis stands at 16-2 SU and 12-5-1 ATS this season. The Colts were an impressive 9-1 SU at home, and 7-1 SU away from home. Indianapolis was also 7-1 ATS away from home, losing their last game of the regular season ATS in a meaningless game. The Colts have been the listed favorite in 15 of their 17 games this season. Indy is 9-4-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this entire season. QB Peyton Manning directed the NFL's 2nd strongest passing offense, averaging 282 YPG this season. The Colts also averaged 29 PPG this season, while their defense has only allowed an average of 10 PPG during the postseason. The Colts were 7-1 ATS when they scored 30 PTS or more this season.

Colts are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - DE Charles Grant (tricep) is out.
TE Jeremy Shockey (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (Side of the Day)

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes – Super Bowl XLIV (February 7)

NFL Trends and Indexes – Super Bowl XLIV (February 7)

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