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2X my standard play on NCAAB game

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  • 2X my standard play on NCAAB game

    2010 RECORD TO DATE: (for you, Chado)
    NCAAF (ie Bowl Season): 5-1
    NCAAB: 5-2
    NFL: 0-1

    I can't remember the last time I played two OVERs in a row, but I can't resist. Using the same logic as yesterday, this total is simply too low, and I don't think it is an honest reflection of the conference games these teams have been playing of late.

    Drexel/Northeastern OVER 117

    These two teams first met on Dec 5th, and Drexel handed NEastern their only conference loss, 49-47. In that putrid game, Northeastern managed 14 turnovers, Drexel 15 turnovers, and despite a combined 40 personal fouls, the two teams managed to make only 20 combined free throws. They were also a combined 2/11 from 3 point range. In other words, it was just a world of ugly, and as well as Northeastern has been playing, I don't expect that history will repeat itself from 7 weeks ago.

    How well has Northeastern been playing? They have won 7 consecutive home games, and in that stretch, they are averaging 70 ppg at home. 70! Teams that average 70 points a game don't have totals sitting at 117 very often. Northeastern is a 10 point favorite here, which means they are expected to dictate the pace of this game.

    Then, there's Drexel. Since defeating Northeastern, their totals against conference opponents have been as follows: 159, 120, 147, 121, 101, 119, 135, and 137. This means that exactly ONE out of EIGHT games since their no-offense affair against Northeastern has gone UNDER tonight's posted total.

    Both of these teams have posted some low numbers, including against each other, but since conference play heated up, both have been playing games that involve more scoring than this total signifies. I expect Northeastern to once again approach their home average of 70 points, and if they even come close, this paltry total will be easily eclipsed.

    Drexel/NEastern OVER 117 for tall stakes.

    Good luck.

  • #2
    Good luck

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    • #3
      GL Truck!
      NBA is a joke

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      • #4
        gl truck

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        • #5
          OK, I'll play along
          You can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning

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          • #6
            Good luck TT!!

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            • #7
              I'll play it too

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              • #8
                Not trying to be a dick but you are basically making a case for the under in this write up. These stats you speak of are common knowledge....doesnt it bother that the total is this low?

                PEACE

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                • #9
                  Nothing dickly about that at all MotorCity.

                  Totals are a much more straightforward business in something like the NBA. Everybody plays everybody, you take both teams average total, you average that... and you are pretty close to your number.

                  But that is because all games are essentially equal. When teams like Eastern Michigan run off and play Villanova, and then Drexel takes on Upstate New York Polytechnic, these totals get skewed. So, the number becomes much more subjective. It is a GUARANTEE that cappers are going to look FIRST at how these teams did H2H. When they do, they are going to think UNDER before anything else. I believe that psychology is a part of a total that is so low. I think that we can take advantage today of that first crazy final totaling 96 points, because all by itself it is going to create a pool of UNDER bettors that create a total we can top.

                  I do understand what you are saying, but I don't think this is a case (like Illinois +2 against PSU) in which ALL signs point to taking one single side. I just happen to think the things I pointed out outweigh the logic of the UNDER.

                  Good luck.

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                  • #10
                    GL Truck ! i see its up over 119 at alot of places now

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                    • #11
                      Yeah, wow. Seeing 120. My X2 play is big, but not THAT big. That is a lot of movement late on a very small-time game. Don't know what to think of it, but I definitely still like my 117.

                      Good luck.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by TruckeeT View Post
                        Yeah, wow. Seeing 120. My X2 play is big, but not THAT big. That is a lot of movement late on a very small-time game. Don't know what to think of it, but I definitely still like my 117.

                        Good luck.
                        Lots of movement because a certain service who is perceived to be good at totals played it. They always move the line 2-4 points
                        You can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning

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