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As someone who seeks out golden opportunities in UNDERS, I am well aware of what the books are aware of with Ball St and Miami Ohio -- they have been paying off bettors of the UNDER in a big way. Miami Ohio has hit Under the total in 10 of 14 games this season, and Ball St has gone under in 7 of 11 marked games.
So, what happens? In a rare case of the total bleeding too far in the low direction, the books over-react. This total opened at 113 and has fallen to 112. How many games in an entire season are down in this paltry range? Very few.
In five conference games, an average of 113 points have been scored in Ball State games, and an average of 123 points have been scored in Miami/Ohio games. So, from a very simple numbers standpoint, this total should have fallen at about 118. Yes, non-conference games factor in to the total, but Miami Oh's totals against Cinci, Xavier, or Kentucky are not nearly as indicative of the likelihood of today's game as much more similarly matched conference games.
A few more things jump out: Ball State scored 71 and 75 in their last 2 home tilts, against Toledo and W Michigan. MiOH is favored in this game, and when MiOh wins this season, their opponents average 58/points per game.
The last thing that really stands out to me about such a low total is that it is likely to be a very close game. The line is 3, and it could easily be a pick em game. Even offensively challenged teams have a funny way of scoring 10-15 points in the final 2 minutes of undecided games.
I think it will be close, I think it will be ugly, and I think it will be a total that lands comfortably in the 120s.
Miami OH/Ball State OVER 112 big.
Good luck.
So, what happens? In a rare case of the total bleeding too far in the low direction, the books over-react. This total opened at 113 and has fallen to 112. How many games in an entire season are down in this paltry range? Very few.
In five conference games, an average of 113 points have been scored in Ball State games, and an average of 123 points have been scored in Miami/Ohio games. So, from a very simple numbers standpoint, this total should have fallen at about 118. Yes, non-conference games factor in to the total, but Miami Oh's totals against Cinci, Xavier, or Kentucky are not nearly as indicative of the likelihood of today's game as much more similarly matched conference games.
A few more things jump out: Ball State scored 71 and 75 in their last 2 home tilts, against Toledo and W Michigan. MiOH is favored in this game, and when MiOh wins this season, their opponents average 58/points per game.
The last thing that really stands out to me about such a low total is that it is likely to be a very close game. The line is 3, and it could easily be a pick em game. Even offensively challenged teams have a funny way of scoring 10-15 points in the final 2 minutes of undecided games.
I think it will be close, I think it will be ugly, and I think it will be a total that lands comfortably in the 120s.
Miami OH/Ball State OVER 112 big.
Good luck.
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