Super Bowl Line

[ravenmaniac]

My local opened his Super Bowl line yesterday with the Colts
-4'. I was talking to him a little while ago and he told me he took in 20 plays yesterday with 17 being on the Colts. As a result he now has the Colts at -6. I like the Saints in this game and think I am gonna lock in in today. My question is do any of you guys think this spread reaches 7 or higher by game time. I myself don't think so but was interested in what everyone else thinks. Thanks

[bryce]

I do not think it will reach 7--maybe 6.5 but I think it will close at 6 or what it is right now at 5.5 (bookmaker). Anything is possible as I believe the Super Bowl is the biggest one day event for bettors that do not wager all the time like us degenerates.....that in itself could raise a line pretty quickly if everyone throws down on the favorite.
Can't see it though----just my two cents..

[savage1]

I know one thing-if I wanted to bet the game and liked the Saints, there is no way I would take 4 1/2 when I could get 5 1/2.
Sure 5 and 5 1/2 are oddball numbers and the score probably won't close there but it could-I wouldn't take the chance.
In addition on game day if your local has 4 1/2 and the line elsewhere in 5 1/2 and you wanted to tease it with the total or possibly a basketball game, that extra point could very well make a difference between winning and losing.
In direct answer to your question, I think line will close at 5 1/2 or maybe 6 in some places.

[Chado1]

The under in this game is gonna be easy money. Every Joe blow from here to the Atlantic will bet the over. Wait right until gametime and pound the under!!! $$$$$$$$

[Chado1]

I know one thing-if I wanted to bet the game and liked the Saints, there is no way I would take 4 1/2 when I could get 5 1/2.
Sure 5 and 5 1/2 are oddball numbers and the score probably won't close there but it could-I wouldn't take the chance.
In addition on game day if your local has 4 1/2 and the line elsewhere in 5 1/2 and you wanted to tease it with the total or possibly a basketball game, that extra point could very well make a difference between winning and losing.
In direct answer to your question, I think line will close at 5 1/2 or maybe 6 in some places.

Another savage ramble...blah blah blah 4.5 to 5.5 in football makes no difference and you even say it doesnt matter and then say but maybe LOL too funny..

[savage1]

Another savage ramble...blah blah blah 4.5 to 5.5 in football makes no difference and you even say it doesnt matter and then say but maybe LOL too funny..

It is no ramble my friend;I was simply trying to give him something to think about it.
Let me ask you a question buddy:
Lets say you or he took 4 1/2 with NO and wanted to buy the line to 6, 6 1/2 or 7.
Now the question is would it be cheaper to buy it to that number, from 4 1/2 of from 5 1/2?; there are some lifelines out there if you need some help with this question.

[peanutgallery]

The under in this game is gonna be easy money. Every Joe blow from here to the Atlantic will bet the over. Wait right until gametime and pound the under!!! $$$$$$$$

Don't be so sure... I know I wasn't the only one who went big on the under in the Minny/ New Orleans game thinking the exact same thing...

The fact of the matter is the line between squares and wise guys is severely blurred in events like this... There is so much money coming from all angles that it is very hard to tell anything... At least, that's my opinion...

I will say the New Orleans offense is struggling nowadays... And that's an understatement! I am in agreement that you should probably take the points because as someone in this forum said: I don't see either team being able to pull away from the other... BUT, I do see Manning scoring on 75% of his possessions... I just want a good game!!!

[bryce]

I am a firm believer on Indianapolis killing clock. If they get the lead I will agree with Chad that this game is an UNDER game...If New Orleans comes out firing and scores quickly that under will be suspect quickly. I bet a lot of halftimes---I don't know what the stat is but look if INDY had a lead at the half how many games went UNDER the total.
I don't know if someone has the time or figures right in front of them but I would wager to say Under came in most games with INDY leading at the half.

[ravenmaniac]

I think it's funny how people's perceptions are based on the what have you done for me lately theory. Everyone is jumping on Indy based on what they did to the Jets and how the Saints looked Sunday against the Vikings causing the spread to go up to -6. Thus, I think there is a lot of value in New Orleans. What do you think the line would have been had the Super Bowl teams been decided the previous week when the Colts beat the Ravens 20-3 and the Saints destroyed the Cardinals. I bet Indy would have been at most a 3 point favorite, maybe even less.

[callyman]

All valid points- but I see Manning tearing apart the secondary. Indy wins by 10

Cally--

[HAS_Ltd]

If you're taking the Saints then I would grab the +6. I doubt you will see it any higher.

[NoCashMcgraff]

if this was ANY game other than the SB I would agree with you 100%..Public MUUUUUUUUUUUUUURDERS the superbowl, believe me, I have learned the HAAAAAAARD way.

[MtrCtyPimp]

I think it's funny how people's perceptions are based on the what have you done for me lately theory. Everyone is jumping on Indy based on what they did to the Jets and how the Saints looked Sunday against the Vikings causing the spread to go up to -6. Thus, I think there is a lot of value in New Orleans. What do you think the line would have been had the Super Bowl teams been decided the previous week when the Colts beat the Ravens 20-3 and the Saints destroyed the Cardinals. I bet Indy would have been at most a 3 point favorite, maybe even less.

You are absolutely correct. Before the playoffs started the AFC was a very slight favorite to win the SuperBowl (less than a FG)

Now if I told you Indy -2.5 over New Orleans how do you think betting would go?

The line for this game was set weeks ago and it was 2.5. They tried to be slick and open it at 3.5 (-20) and guess what happend? People still bet like crazy on the Colts and even at 5.5 Colts bets are still outnumbering Saints tickets.

As far as where the line goes from here I dont think it gets above 5.5 because at that number they might get pumped with Saints action still waiting on the sidelines and they might get middled from all the pro gamblers who pounded th opener with the sole intention of playing for a middle.

Would you want to middle 3.5 and 5.5 or 3.5 & 6.

All of the above is pure speculation on my part though.....dont take it as gospel.

PEACE

[RnJ_VIP]

i would take BIG on UNDER. MEDIUM play on SAINTS. MEDIUM PLAY 6pt teaser SAINTS & UNDER. MEDIUM play 4team 10pt teaser AFC, OVER, SAINTS, UNDER!!!

[MtrCtyPimp]

i would take BIG on UNDER. MEDIUM play on SAINTS. MEDIUM PLAY 6pt teaser SAINTS & UNDER. MEDIUM play 4team 10pt teaser AFC, OVER, SAINTS, UNDER!!!

Personally I like the over in this game.

Go look at the Colts schedule....they only played 3 decent offenses all season. Arizona in week 3 who kept shooting themselves in the foot in that game on Sunday night.

Pats on Sunday night who moved it up and down the field on them. Houston at home who missed a FG to tie it and send it to OT and at Houston who hung 27 on em and collapsed late.

Colts can be had on defense against the right offense. Colts played a ridiculously easy schedule especially against offensively challnged teams.

PEACE