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I'm always curious how other cappers come about their biggest plays... I know for some it is number crunching, systems, trends, and for many it is a gut-feeling.
I always pick 10-12 NCAAB games that I have a good feel for, and using numbers, past games, and all handy statistics, I divine a line and a total for each, before I ever see the official line. For anybody else who does this, you know that it is not difficult to get very near the Vegas number on most all of the games.
Here are a few examples for tonight's games:
Indiana@PennSt MY CAP: PSU -8 ACTUAL: PSU-10
ArkLR@Fla Atl MY CAP: FLa Atl -6 ACTUAL: FL AT -7
Loyola@ Siena MYCAP: Siena -16 ACTUAL: Siena -16.5
Furman@Charleston MY CAP: Char -12 ACTUAL: Charl -10
This is how it goes. I can cap a game within 3 or so points about 80 - 85% of the time, and it is rare for something to be EXTREMELY different from my read. So, as it is, none of these games are going to be plays for me.
Then there was this.
EasternIllinois@Murray State MY CAP: Murray -19 ACTUAL: Murray -11
There is nothing I don't love about this line. Take it from me, because I have studied it: Eastern Illinois is the worst 4-4 team in any conference in the country.
Eastern Illinois has collected 4 wins from the 4 bottom teams in the Ohio Valley, and they are a couple stray shots away from being a 1-7 conference team, which would better suit their actual skill level. Have a look at a few games played against common opponents.
EIllini beat Jacksonville State by 2 points at HOME.
Murray beat Jville State by 24 points at HOME.
EIllini beat Tennessee State by 2 points on the ROAD.
Murray beat Tennessee St by 21 points on the ROAD.
EIllini beat Tenn Tech by 4 points at HOME.
Murray beat Tenn Tech by 22 points at HOME.
Oh, and Murray already defeated E. Illinios by 16 this year, and has won its last 7 conference games by more points than this spread. I do not see this as a letdown spot, as the truth is, this is by no means a last place team.
Bottom line: There has been no better conference road team in the country than Murray this season, and I think they will pound a team that they already outrebounded 39-31, and against whom they made it to the free throw line 31 times.
Murray State -11 very large.
Good luck.
I always pick 10-12 NCAAB games that I have a good feel for, and using numbers, past games, and all handy statistics, I divine a line and a total for each, before I ever see the official line. For anybody else who does this, you know that it is not difficult to get very near the Vegas number on most all of the games.
Here are a few examples for tonight's games:
Indiana@PennSt MY CAP: PSU -8 ACTUAL: PSU-10
ArkLR@Fla Atl MY CAP: FLa Atl -6 ACTUAL: FL AT -7
Loyola@ Siena MYCAP: Siena -16 ACTUAL: Siena -16.5
Furman@Charleston MY CAP: Char -12 ACTUAL: Charl -10
This is how it goes. I can cap a game within 3 or so points about 80 - 85% of the time, and it is rare for something to be EXTREMELY different from my read. So, as it is, none of these games are going to be plays for me.
Then there was this.
EasternIllinois@Murray State MY CAP: Murray -19 ACTUAL: Murray -11
There is nothing I don't love about this line. Take it from me, because I have studied it: Eastern Illinois is the worst 4-4 team in any conference in the country.
Eastern Illinois has collected 4 wins from the 4 bottom teams in the Ohio Valley, and they are a couple stray shots away from being a 1-7 conference team, which would better suit their actual skill level. Have a look at a few games played against common opponents.
EIllini beat Jacksonville State by 2 points at HOME.
Murray beat Jville State by 24 points at HOME.
EIllini beat Tennessee State by 2 points on the ROAD.
Murray beat Tennessee St by 21 points on the ROAD.
EIllini beat Tenn Tech by 4 points at HOME.
Murray beat Tenn Tech by 22 points at HOME.
Oh, and Murray already defeated E. Illinios by 16 this year, and has won its last 7 conference games by more points than this spread. I do not see this as a letdown spot, as the truth is, this is by no means a last place team.
Bottom line: There has been no better conference road team in the country than Murray this season, and I think they will pound a team that they already outrebounded 39-31, and against whom they made it to the free throw line 31 times.
Murray State -11 very large.
Good luck.
NBA is a joke
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