Announcement

**Chado1** · 01-21-2010, 02:05 PM

GL with the action today BUM!!!

**Tnbreakers** · 01-21-2010, 02:54 PM

Gl Bum!

**StarDust Bum** · 01-21-2010, 03:25 PM

Thursday Tips

The Thursday night TNT card is a small one, with only two games to choose from. The early matchup isn't lacking star power, when the Cavs host the Lakers. The late tip involves the suddenly-hot Nuggets battling the up-and-down Clippers.

Lakers (32-9 SU, 18-22-1 ATS) at Cavs (32-11 SU, 20-22-1 ATS)

Whenver Kobe Bryant and LeBron James hook up on the basketball court, the nation's eyes will be fixated on the game. The Cavs ran out the Champs on Christmas Day, 102-87 as five-point underdogs at Staples Center. That victory by Cleveland avenged a season sweep by Los Angeles last season, with the Lakers winning each meeting by double-digits.

The Cavs' blowout of the Lakers on December 25 was punctuated by 53.5% shooting from the floor, including 28 points from Mo Williams and 26 from James. The Lakers were limited to just 36.5% from the field, but Bryant pumped in a game-high 35 points.

Cleveland finished a 3-2 West Coast trip with both losses coming by a combined three points. The Cavs returned to Quicken Loans Arena and held off the Raptors, 108-100, but failed to cover as ten-point home favorites on Tuesday. Williams sprained his shoulder in the win over Toronto, and will miss tonight's game as Delonte West will start at point guard.

The Lakers begin a season-long eight-game road trip with this contest, as L.A. is riding a three-game winning streak. Phil Jackson's club is off a six-point victory over the Magic on Monday night, but the Lakers are 1-4 SU the last five on the road. Los Angeles owns a dreadful 1-7 ATS road mark against teams currently above .500, but the Cavs will be the first over .500 team the Lakers will face from the Eastern Conference away from Staples Center.

Seven of the last nine meetings have been covered by the underdog, including each of the last four in Cleveland. The Cavs are riding a 2-6 ATS run at the "Q," but only two of those games came as a favorite of less than nine points (1-1).

Clippers (19-22 SU, 20-20-1 ATS) at Nuggets (27-14 SU, 18-21-2 ATS)

The other Los Angeles basketball team (sorry Clippers) plays the second end of a back-to-back in the altitude of Denver, battling the Northwest-leading Nuggets. George Karl's team will also play with no rest, coming off Wednesday's overtime victory at Golden State.

The Clippers have been a surprise to bettors as of late, going 10-2 ATS the last 12 games. However, four of those games were played without center Chris Kaman, who was out with a back injury. If we tighten that number to the games in which Kaman played, the Clips are 8-0 ATS and 7-1 SU, including last night's win over the Bulls.

The Nuggets have also dealt with injuries lately, but both Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony are back in business, as Denver is riding a three-game winning streak. Denver is just 3-6-1 ATS the last ten as a home favorite following a 5-1 ATS start at the Pepsi Center.

The theory about road teams going into Denver with no rest and struggling is true and the numbers back it up this season. The Nuggets are 8-1 SU and 5-3-1 ATS at home against teams with no rest. But what about Denver heading home on the second of a back-to-back? The Nuggets are 1-1 SU/ATS in this spot, beating the Bulls by 19, while losing to the Sixers by three. The loss to Philadelphia does have a built-in excuse (or two) as both Billups and Anthony missed the game due to injury.

The Nuggets will try to avenge a 106-99 setback at Staples Center back on November 20 as nine-point favorites. Denver squandered a 12-point lead in that loss, allowing Rasual Butler to come off the Clippers bench to score 27 points.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- The Pacers are healthy again, but that doesn't necessarily mean they have turned the corner. Indiana is 2-15 ATS this season as an underdog of 6 ½ points or less, meaning they play to or down to the competition. However, the Pacers have been pointspread gold when receiving at least nine points, going 6-1 ATS in that situation, including Wednesday's backdoor cover at Orlando.

-- The Celtics' window to another championship may be closing with age and injuries being a major factor. Boston has especially struggled in one role this season - facing teams off a loss. The C's are a league-worst 3-13 ATS when playing teams that lost their last game, including a 1-8 ATS mark at home following Monday's setback to the Mavericks.

-- The Raptors continue to be inconsistent, owning a 21-22 record after Wednesday's loss at Milwaukee. Toronto is 1-8 SU/ATS on the road with no rest, losing four of those games by at least 19 points.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-21-2010, 03:27 PM

Thursday's Tips

**Louisville at Seton Hall**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Louisville (12-6 straight up, 5-8 against the spread) as a one–point favorite. However, as of early this morning, most books had the Pirates as one-point favorites. Fast-forward to this afternoon (1:30ish p.m. Eastern) and the Cardinals are once again one-point favorites with a total of 158 1/2.

--Rick Pitino’s team has lost back-to-back games, including an 82-77 overtime loss at Pittsburgh this past Saturday. The Panthers took the cash as 1 ½-point home favorites. Samardo Samuels had a team-high 25 points for the Cardinals in the losing effort.

--After winning its first eight games of the season, Seton Hall (10-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) has lost six of its last eight contests, including last Thursday’s 85-73 loss at Georgetown as a 6 ½-point underdog. Junior guard Jeremy Hazell had 17 points in defeat.

--Bobby Gonzalez’s squad is 8-3 SU and 2-4 ATS at home. As for Louisville, it has played four true road games, compiling a 1-3 record both SU and ATS.

--U of L is 3-2 in Big East play, while the Pirates are 1-4 against conference foes. They beat Cincy at home but also lost to Syracuse and West Va. (in OT) at the Prudential Center. The Cards beat USF and St. John’s at home, Providence on the road. In addition to getting beat at Pitt, they lost to Villanova at Freedom Hall.

--Samuels leads the Cards in scoring and rebounding, averaging 16.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Hazell leads the Pirates in scoring at a 22.9 PPG clip.

--When these teams collided at Freedom Hall last year, Louisville captured a 95-78 win but the Pirates escaped with the spread cover as 17 ½-point underdogs. The ‘over’ cashed and is on a 4-0 run in the last four encounters between these Big East rivals.

--The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive Louisville games and is 10-2 overall.

--The ‘under’ is 3-2-1 for Seton Hall in its six home games with a total, 4-4-1 overall.

--ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Indiana at Penn State**

--LVSC opened Penn St. (8-9 SU, 6-8-1 ATS) as an 8 ½-point favorite. As of early this afternoon, most betting shops had PSU up to 10 with the total in the 131-132 range. IU is plus-400 to win outright (risk $100 to win $400).

--Indiana (8-9 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) improved to 2-3 in Big Ten play with Sunday’s 81-78 overtime win over Minnesota. The Hoosiers hooked up their backers as 11-point home underdogs. Verdell Jones III was the catalyst for IU, producing 24 points, seven rebounds and three assists. Christian Watford added 16 points and 10 rebounds.

--Indiana has played a slew of neutral-court games but just two true road assignments. The Hoosiers got slammed in both of those spots, losing 79-54 at Ohio St. and 69-45 at Michigan.

--Penn St. has lost five in a row since Big Ten play started, including Saturday’s 67-64 loss at Iowa as a 3 ½-point road favorite. Talor Battle had 31 points and seven rebounds in the losing effort.

--Battle, who led the Big Ten in scoring last season as a sophomore, is averaging 18.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game.

--PSU is 6-3 SU at home but just 2-5 versus the number. The Nittany Lions are 2-4 ATS as home favorites.

--The ‘over’ is 7-6 overall for PSU, but the ‘under’ is 4-3 in its home games.

--The ‘under’ has been a winner in each of the last four PSU-Indiana meetings.

--ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Florida at Arkansas**

--LVSC opened Florida (12-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) as a two-point favorite. As of early this morning, most books had UF as a 1 1/2-point 'chalk.' Now at 1:30ish p.m., most spots have adjusted the side to a pick 'em with the total at 146.

--Arkansas (8-9 SU, 5-5 ATS) is coming off a 71-59 win over Alabama as a 1 ½-point home favorite. The victory snapped a four-game losing streak for the Razorbacks but in the same vein, extended their ATS winning surge to four games. Marshawn Powell had 18 points and 10 rebounds against the Crimson Tide, while Rotnei Clarke and Michael Washington added 17 points apiece. Washington also pulled down a team-high 13 boards.

--I’ve said this a few times this month and I’ll say it again now: Gamblers should completely dismiss ALL of Arkansas’ results prior to its spread-covering loss at home against Texas on Jan. 5. That’s because sophomore point guard Courtney Fortson missed the team’s first 14 games before returning against the Longhorns.

--Since being reinstated to the team following the suspension, Fortson is averaging 17.0 points, 7.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game. More importantly, his ball-handling skills and ability to get into the lane off the dribble makes things easier for all of his teammates, especially Clarke, who is most effective coming off screens for catch-and-shoot opportunities. Clarke is the SEC's second-leading scorer (18.4 PPG) and leads the conference in 3-point shooting, draining 61-of-125 attempts from beyond the arc for 48.9 percent.

--Billy Donovan’s team lost its first two SEC games (95-87 at Vandy and 89-77 vs. Kentucky) before beating LSU 72-58 Saturday night as a 10 ½-point home favorite in Gainesville. All five UF starters scored in double figures led by freshman Kenny Boynton’s 18 points. Erving Walker had 14 points and six assists, while Vernon Macklin finished with 14 points and eight boards.

--Although Florida has wins over Michigan St., FSU and N.C. St., it also has a home loss to South Alabama and a loss to Richmond in the state of Florida (Sunrise). The Wolfpack beat Duke last night, which is a good thing for the Gators, but the Spiders lost at home to Charlotte as seven-point favorites. Therefore, UF is a bubble team right now that can't afford to fall to 1-3 in SEC play.

--In preparation for facing his former assistant John Pelphrey's team tonight, Donovan told GatorBait.net, "When you have eight scholarship players and Dan Werner has the flu, you have seven guys, how do you make practice competitive and at the same point how do you at least somehow have some sensitivity to the amount of minutes (Erving) Walker and (Kenny) Boynton are playing in the backcourt?"

--Werner played with the flu in the win over LSU and will be in uniform tonight. Kenny Kadji will not be, however, and it appears his season could be done. The sophomore center has a bulging disc in his back. Erik Murphy is also playing with a shoulder injury, while Ray Shipman recently missed a game with a sore knee.

--Florida swept a pair of meetings between these SEC rivals last year, including a 73-58 win at the SEC Tournament as a nine-point favorite. Dan Werner led the Gators with 15 points and 13 rebounds. The ‘under’ cashed in that game like it has in the last four UF-Arkansas head-to-head meetings.

--Totals have been a wash for the Hogs – 4-4 overall, 2-2 in their home outings.

--The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Gators, 1-1 in their two true road games.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Washington at UCLA**

--LVSC opened Washington (12-5 SU, 5-12 ATS) as a 1 ½-point favorite. However, as of early this morning, most spots had the Huskies at 3 ½.

--UCLA (7-10 SU, 6-8 ATS) is in the midst of its worst season since the last of Steve Lavin’s tenure. The Bruins, who are in 2-3 in Pac-10 play, have lost three of their last four games both SU and ATS. They are looking to bounce back from a 67-46 home loss to arch-rival USC as one-point home favorites.

--Lorenzo Romar’s squad goes back on the road for this spot after posting back-to-back blowout wins at home. The Huskies spanked Stanford 94-61 and also beat up on Cal, 84-69.

--Prior to the wins over the Cardinal and the Bears, Washington had lost three in a row SU and five straight versus the number. The Huskies won their league opener against Oregon St., but then lost vs. Oregon, at Arizona and at Arizona St. The Ducks beat Washington down by 11, but the Wildcats and Sun Devils really put on the woodshed treatment with each collecting 17-point victories.

--UCLA is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog this year, beating Arizona St. outright and covering in a loss to Kansas.

--Washington has covered the spread in five straight head-to-head meetings against UCLA. When these teams met at Pauley Pavilion last year, the Bruins won by an 85-76 count, but the Huskies took the cash as 9 ½-point road underdogs.

--Ben Howland’s team is 6-4 SU and 4-3 ATS at home.

--The ‘over’ is 8-6 overall for UCLA, 4-3 in its home games. The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for Washington.

--Tip-off is slated for 10:30 p.m. Eastern on FSN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--For you bet-happy night owls, take note of San Diego at Saint Mary’s scheduled to come off the board at 11:00 p.m. Eastern. Most importantly, the Toreros and Gaels will be televised on ESPNU. Randy Bennett's team was a 14-point home 'chalk' as of early this a.m.

--Gonzaga will play host to Pepperdine on Thursday at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. FSN will provide the telecast. Mark Few's team is a 24-point home favorite.

--I finally hit a decent money-line winner last night with Western Carolina for a plus-175 return (risk $100 to win $175). The Catamounts improved to 15-3 with their 77-67 win at Davidson. They have a win at Louisville and their only losses have come at Texas, at Clemson and at Ga. Southern.

--Another nice money-line winner last night was Wake Forest. When bettors who follow me on twitter found at that UNC's Ed Davis would not play against the Deacs more than 30 minutes before tip-off, the tempting plus-230 payout had to be a consideration. Dino Gaudio's squad was in control from the get-go and cruised to an 82-69 win as a six-point underdog. With Tyler Zeller already out, the Tar Heels were extremely vulnerable sans Davis. Zeller is out for a month, while Davis is nursing a sprained ankle and is day-to-day.

--UF fans remember Christian Drejer, that slimy snake in the grass who bolted on the Gators in the midst of the 2003-2004 campaign. And now Iowa St. has its own version of Drejer. His name is Lucca Staiger.

--Speaking of snakes in the grass, Tim Floyd tells the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he left USC because of his relationship with the AD rather than the O.J. Mayo scandal. Earth to Tim: The comment about you "doing things the right way for four years" made me chuckle.

--I love how Kansas St. head coach Frank Martin has handled his squad’s huge win over top-ranked Texas earlier this week. During Jim Rome is Burning Wednesday on ESPN, Martin told Rome, “We aren’t looking for parades in January."

**Dat Boi E** · 01-21-2010, 04:13 PM

good luck on the action tonight, Bum!

Announcement

The Bum's Thursday's PODS !

The Bum's Thursday's PODS !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment