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NFL Trends and Indexes – Conference Championships (January 24)

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  • NFL Trends and Indexes – Conference Championships (January 24)





    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, January 24

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Last edited by pm530; 01-21-2010, 06:47 AM.

  • #2
    NFL
    Dunkel Index



    NY Jets at Indianapolis
    The Jets look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games as an underdog. New York is the pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by only 6. Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+8). Here are all of this week's picks.

    SUNDAY, JANUARY 24

    Game 301-302: NY Jets at Indianapolis
    Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 141.004; Indianapolis 146.897
    Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6; 42
    Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 8; 39
    Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+8); Over

    Game 303-304: Minnesota at New Orleans
    Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.779; New Orleans 140.363
    Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 8 1/2; 59
    Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Over

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    Comment


    • #3
      NFL
      Long Sheet



      Note: If there updates for the “Top Trends” sections, we will re-post.

      Sunday, January 24

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      NY JETS (11 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (15 - 2) - 1/24/2010, 2:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
      NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      MINNESOTA (13 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (14 - 3) - 1/24/2010, 6:40 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      NEW ORLEANS is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
      MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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      Comment


      • #4
        NFL
        Short Sheet



        Sunday, January 24th

        AFC Championship Game TV: CBS

        NY Jets at Indianapolis, 3:00 ET

        NY Jets:
        22-9 Under off 3+ SU wins
        86-60 Under off an Under

        Indianapolis:
        8-2 ATS off ATS win
        20-8 ATS revenging loss by 14+ pts


        NFC Championship Game TV: FOX

        Minnesota at New Orleans, 6:40 ET

        Minnesota:
        21-9 Over Away off BB home games
        8-2 Over vs. New Orleans

        New Orleans:
        11-3 Over off home win
        24-12 Over vs. conference

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        Comment


        • #5
          NFL


          Sunday, January 24

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          Trend Report
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          3:00 PM
          NY JETS vs. INDIANAPOLIS
          NY Jets are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
          NY Jets are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
          Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
          Indianapolis is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games

          6:40 PM
          MINNESOTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
          Minnesota is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games
          New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
          New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

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          Comment


          • #6
            NFL


            Sunday, January 24


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            AFC Championship: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
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            It will be a David vs. Goliath-like battle when the Final 2 from the AFC battle for the Lamar Hunt Trophy on Sunday.

            The Indianapolis Colts, who are “supposed to be in the AFC title game,” will host the New York Jets, who “weren’t even supposed to make the playoffs” and on top of that, we’ll see the tried, tested and true QB Peyton Manning dueling with the rookie signal-caller Mark Sanchez.

            Online sportsbooks opened Indy as a 7.5 point favorite (a couple books opened Indy -7 early but it immediately went to 7.5 across the board), and now has moved to -8. The total is set at 40.5.

            The betting action has leveled off after the initial spike of Colt money early. If you’re thinking about betting on the Jets you might as well wait, as this line isn’t going to come down and could continue to rise a little.

            Let’s look at some numbers from this matchup.

            Indy is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games (remember they didn’t care about the last couple of games on their schedule).

            Note that in their most recent eight games vs. teams from the AFC East, the result has been 6 Overs and 2 Unders.

            However, bettors who played the Colts haven’t seen much of a payout in Indy’s last 10 games against the Jets, going 3-6-1 ATS.

            You don’t have to look too far back to their last meeting.

            It was a controversial game a few weeks ago that resulted in a road win for the Jets, as they handed Indianapolis its first loss of the regular season (by a final of 29-15) but many of the Colts starters were on the bench in the second half of the game.

            The Jets covered as 4-point road ‘dogs and the Total went Over 41.

            In their last nine home games in January, the Colts have been a solid 6-3 ATS.

            The Jets have been road warriors in their last 10 away from the Big Apple as they are 7-3 ATS and are currently on a five-game ATS win streak in that situation.

            In the green and white’s last eight games overall, they are a red-hot 7-1 ATS, including going 2-0 ATS so far in these NFL playoffs.

            In the Jets’ last eight games when listed as underdogs of 8-points or less, they are 7-1 ATS.

            Will Peyton Manning go for the second Super Bowl of his career or will Mark Sanchez cap his rookie season with a Super Bowl appearance?

            We’ll see this weekend.


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            Comment


            • #7
              NFL


              Sunday, January 24


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              NFC championship: Vikings at Saints
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              While the AFC championship features greenhorn Mark Sanchez against wily vet Peyton Manning, the NFC title game will see two experienced QBs going head to head in the New Orleans Saints’ Drew Brees and the Minnesota Vikings’ Brett Favre.

              Going into Sunday’s tilt, online sportsbooks have New Orleans listed as a 3.5-point home fave and the Total is currently 53.

              The Saints are favored by a field goal in first half betting and the Total for the first two quarters is set at 26.5.

              Furt Smeckly is reporting balanced action on this game, much more so than the AFC matchup between the Jets and Colts.

              The NFC’s Top 2 seeds performed similarly in the divisional round, handily defeating their opponents.

              The Saints covered as 7-point home faves as they defeated the Arizona Cardinals 45-14 and the Vikes stopped Tony Romo and the surging Dallas Cowboys in a 34-3 win — Minnesota covered as a 3-point home favorite.

              Let’s look at some betting numbers from this matchup:

              NFC Championship Trends:

              - In their last nine games overall, Minnesota has the edge over New Orleans, going 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread.

              - The last nine games between these two teams have produced 1 Over, 7 Unders and 1 Push. .

              - New Orleans has a record of 14 Overs and 3 Unders in their last 17 starts vs. teams from the NFC North.

              - The Saints are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 starts.

              - The last 11 January road games have not been kind to Minnesota and its bettors, as the Vikings are 1-10 SU and 1-10 ATS.

              - The Saints haven’t been too sharp either though in January, as they are only 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS.

              - The last 13 times New Orleans has been favored by 4-points or less, it has been a boon for bettors, as they boats a record of 10-3 ATS. In this situation, they have scored 11 Overs and 2 Unders.

              - Minnesota, on the other hand, has burned a hole in bettors’ pockets in their last 13 games when underdogs of +4 or less; as they have a record of 3-10 SU and 3-8-2 ATS in that situation.

              Super Bowl Odds:
              In Super Bowl XLIV futures betting, the Saints are +200 favorites while the Vikings are +400.

              Both teams have a lot of offensive weapons so the NFC title game should be a good one.

              Good luck.


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              Comment


              • #8
                NFL


                Sunday, January 24


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                NFL total bias: Conference Championships
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                It took just a few minutes of me gawking at recent trends to come to an easy conclusion – I am so over championship games.

                The past three years, the over has gone a remarkable 5-1, including a sparkling 3-0 in the NFC. The only game over that span that failed to surpass the number was New England’s 21-12 win over San Diego in 2008 that fell well short of the mark of 48.

                And while I won’t call them shootouts, teams usually show up offensively in these big games. The Chargers in 2008 were the only team that failed to score at least two touchdowns over the six-game sample and just three teams have failed to crack the 20-point mark over our six-game sample.

                Which brings us to our first game – the NFC Championship at the Metrodome.

                Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 52.5)

                No one will get this game confused with a bare-knuckled, defensive, grind-it-out, slobber-knocker. The total is set at a robust 52.5 points and why wouldn’t it be? The Saints and Vikings combined to average more than 60 points during the regular season and didn’t miss a beat last week in the divisional round.

                Minnesota remained aggressive through the final gun and hung a 34-spot on the Cowboys, who entered the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league with arguably the top defense in the NFC. The Saints ran over, around and through the Cardinals en route to a 45-14 beatdown over the defending NFC champions.

                And why shouldn’t this trend continue? If Minnesota is smart, it will continue to pound stud running back Adrian Peterson (18 TDs) and hammer the Saints and their poor rush defense. This could shorten the game, but expect New Orleans and the Vikings both to be too reliant on their deep passing game, something each team has become increasingly reliant on.

                Both teams also feature home-run threats in the return game – Percy Harvin and Reggie Bush – and have incredibly reliable kickers.

                Defenses also should be able to make their fare share of plays, especially Minnesota’s fantastic pass rush, but expect this to only make the offenses more aggressive.

                Now let’s take a look at the AFC.

                New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, 39)

                Defense has dominated this conference the past few seasons, notching the only championship game under the past three years and giving us last year’s 23-14 slugfest when the Steelers outlasted the Ravens and rode a late interception return for a touchdown by Troy Polamalu. It was also a big return for over players, which saw the total of 35 fall when the safety crossed the goal line.

                This season sportsbooks see another defensive battle in the making. New York touts the league’s top-ranked unit and Indianapolis isn’t too shabby either, holding the white-hot Ravens to a meager field goal last week.

                But let’s dig deeper. The Jets love to pound the ball, control the clock and ease the load on rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. However, the team touts a legitimate deep threat in receiver Braylon Edwards, and the emergence of rookie running back Shonn Greene has added an explosive dimension to the team’s running game. And don’t forget about New York’s Wildcat package featuring former Missouri signal-caller Brad Smith. Overall, six of the Jets past nine postseason games have passed the total.

                Meantime, the Colts made the most of their field position last week against the Ravens and cashed in on two touchdowns late in the first half. The team tends to play more conservative in the postseason, but simply needs to cash in on several short fields it will get against the Jets to push the total past this relatively low number.

                During Championship Weekend it’s time to handicap like a champ – play the overs and get ready for the Super Bowl.


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                Comment


                • #9
                  NFL


                  Sunday, January 23


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                  What bettors need to know
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                  Jets at Colts

                  New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, 39)

                  Sunday’s AFC Championship will feature an incredible contrast in style, and in more ways than one.

                  Indianapolis, an offensive juggernaut, has been one of the Super Bowl favorites right from the start. New York, a defensive force, appeared to have little chance of even reaching the playoffs less than a month ago.

                  The Colts (15-2, 10-5-1 ATS) started the season 14-0, rested their starters for the majority of the final two games and then bounced back after a bye week to hammer Baltimore 20-3 in the Divisional round.

                  The Jets (11-7, 11-7 ATS) were 7-7 after a December 20 home loss to the Falcons, but they snuck into the playoffs on a two-game winning streak and have since scored road wins over Cincinnati and San Diego.

                  Line movement

                  The Colts opened as 7.5-point favorites at most betting sites and the line has experienced almost no fluctuation. The total opened between 40 and 41 at most shops but has crept down to 39.

                  Hamburger helper

                  New York and Indianapolis squared off one time this season, on December 27, but the Colts limited their starters and fell 29-15 at home for their first loss. They led 15-10 midway through the third quarter before coach Jim Caldwell decided to bench Peyton Manning and the rest of his top players.

                  The Jets ran for 202 yards – 105 from Thomas Jones and 95 courtesy of rookie Shonn Greene. Of course, a lot of that yardage came at the expense of a second-string Colts defense.

                  New York also controlled the clock for more than 33 minutes, and they will once again try to keep the Indianapolis offense off the field by featuring a ground game that is tops in the NFL (172.2 ypg during the regular season). The Colts, meanwhile, were No. 24 in the league in run defense, allowing 126.5 yards per contest.

                  Coach Rex Ryan, however, knows this trip to Indianapolis will have little resemblance to the last.

                  “Yes, we got some hamburger helper in that game,” Ryan admitted. “But we'll just go in there and try to win another ballgame.”

                  Wayne’s World?

                  Something will have to give on Sunday because the second-best passing offense in the NFL is going up against the league’s top passing defense.

                  Manning (393-for-571, 4500 yards, 33 TDs, 16 INTs) recently became the first player in NFL history to win the Associated Press MVP Award four times. His favorite down-field target, Reggie Wayne, hauled in 100 passes for 1,264 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.

                  Against heralded Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, Wayne was limited to 33 yards on three receptions in less than three quarters of action. Wayne, however, clearly had Revis beat on several pass plays before Manning missed the throws.

                  Sure to play all four quarters this time around, Wayne is eager for another shot at the NFL’s runner-up Defensive Player of the Year.

                  “He understands the game,” Wayne said of Revis. “He understands routes. He understands combinations. Now we've got a whole game to play each other. May the best man win.”

                  Infirmary report

                  The Jets had almost no notable injuries to report until safety Kerry Rhodes collided with a teammate during Thursday’s practice and departed with his right knee heavily wrapped. Ryan, however, assured that it was just a “bump” and that Rhodes, who contained tight end Antonio Gates last week and could have the task of stopping Dallas Clark, is good to go.

                  Clark was limited at Wednesday’s practice, but he returned in full a day later and is listed as probable on Indy’s injury report.

                  The news is less encouraging for the Colts starting secondary. Cornerback Jerraud Powers is questionable with a foot injury and cornerback Antoine Bethea is questionable with a bruised back.

                  Trending topics

                  New York is not only riding a four-game surge, but the upstart team is also on fire against the spread. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last five road trips and 5-0 ATS in their last five against AFC opponents.

                  The Colts have fared quite well ATS in their own right. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine against the AFC and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home outings. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games.

                  Head-to-head, New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams. The over is 5-1-1 in the last seven encounters.

                  Neither the Jets (8-9-1 O/U) nor the Colts (9-8 O/U) have been strong over/under plays this season. The over however, is 4-1 in Indy’s last five games overall and 6-2-1 in New York’s last nine against the AFC.



                  Vikings at Saints

                  Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 53)

                  In a battle between the league’s highest-scoring teams and the two highest-rated quarterbacks, the Vikings and Saints face off for the NFC Championship in New Orleans’ Superdome.

                  This is the Saints second NFC title game in team history, having lost to Chicago three years ago, 39-14, as 2.5-point dogs. The Vikings are 3-4 straight up and 2-4-1 against the spread in conference championships, losing their last four SU and ATS.

                  Line movement

                  New Orleans opened as a 4-point favorite and the line increased to 4.5, but has since dropped to 3.5 and could be as low as 3 by kickoff. The total opened at 53 and can be found at 52.5 in some markets.

                  More than four out of five bettors wagering on the moneyline are taking Minnesota at +160. For those who like New Orleans, laying the points and not considering the moneyline seems like the smart choice for this particular game (see the first “trend” at the bottom).

                  Significant injuries

                  According to the Star Tribune, Minnesota rookie Percy Harvin missed Thursday’s practice due to a migraine.

                  Migraines caused the star wide receiver to miss a regular-season game six weeks ago and also slowed Harvin the following week. The two consecutive games in mid-December Harvin missed, were Brett Favre’s two worst (as far as passer rating) of the season.

                  “[I] expect [Harvin] to be OK,” said Minnesota head coach Brad Childress. “He has to take care of [the migraine]. It’s not something you can fight through.”

                  Harvin was named the Associated Press NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year this season and set a team record for all-purpose yardage (2,081).

                  No place like home

                  While the Vikings were 9-0 this season at home in the comfy confines of the Metrodome, they have only a 4-4 record on the road and haven’t won an away game in nearly three months.

                  In their last three road games – losses to Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago – Minnesota was more than a touchdown favorite on average but lost the three contests by an average of nearly two touchdowns.

                  The Vikings must perform under the pressure of the Superdome, regarded as one of the loudest and most intimidating environments in the NFL.

                  “Not only are you playing the Saints, but you’re playing their fans,” said Favre.

                  Last week, the Superdome crowd was considered the loudest it has been all season and was certainly a factor in New Orleans’ 31-point win over Arizona. This week, Favre and the Vikings can expect it to be even louder.

                  Run, Adrian, Run

                  Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson has not rushed for 100+ yards in eight consecutive games after gaining 100 or more in 19 of his first 39 regular-season games in the NFL.

                  The three-time Pro-Bowler is due for a breakout game, especially considering the last time these two teams played (Oct. 6, 2008) Peterson had one of the worst performances of his career (21 carries, 32 yards).

                  The Saints biggest weakness may be its run defense. New Orleans allowed 122.2 rushing yards per game (21st in NFL) and 4.5 yards per carry (26th) during the regular season.

                  Establishing the run and riding Peterson would help quiet the raucous crowd and keep Saints quarterback Drew Brees and the explosive New Orleans offense off the field.

                  Key matchup

                  Safety Darren Sharper spearheads a Saints secondary that held Kurt Warner in check after he had arguably the best passing performance ever in NFL playoff history the week before against Green Bay.

                  Statistically, Favre is having the best season of his illustrious, 19-year career; however, the 40-year-old quarterback and his teams have often struggled in the playoffs (4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS since 1997).

                  If New Orleans’ defense, and end Will Smith in particular, can apply consistent pressure, Favre, as he has demonstrated in past playoff games, may become rattled, force the football into coverage and commit turnovers.

                  Trends

                  Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, the winning teams of the conference championship games (NFC and AFC) are 65-0-2 ATS when the line is less than 10 points.

                  In 38 of the 78 conference championship games, or nearly half, the margin of victory has been 14 points or more.

                  Minnesota is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS versus New Orleans since 1992; the over is 8-2 in these 10 games.

                  New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points.


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                  Comment


                  • #10
                    NFL
                    Write-up



                    Conference championship games

                    Jets @ Colts-- OK, Indy led Jets 15-10 in Week 16, when with 5:36 left in the third quarter, Painter replaced Manning at QB and Colts' regular season ended, replaced by 5.5 quarters of garbage time. First Jet TD in that game was a kick return by Smith (106 yards). Way to beat Indy is to run ball ball, eat clock, keep Manning's offense off field, then win game late. Jets are 1-6 this year if the opponent scores 16+ points, but last team to do that was Patriots back on Nov 22 (Week 11). Colts had covered five games in row before Week 16 loss; I like the huge edge Indy has at QB, the home field, the fresher legs from a team that wisely rested its starters when it could. If you bet the Jets, money-line them; if they cover the spread, they'll win the game.

                    Vikings @ Saints-- Neither team has won a Super Bowl; Saints have not been to one, so this could be best day in franchise history. Crowd noise figures to be factor; Viking players have earplugs to help block it out. Saint defense had more energy in easy win over Arizona last week; time off got them healthier, so their three straight losses to end regular season are forgotten. Favre won his Super Bowl in this building; he's from the Gulf Coast area (Mississippi), but his Vikings lost last three road games, giving up 11 TDs on 36 drives- their last road win was Nov 1 at Lambeau. Key is whether Viking pass rush can get after Brees the way they did Romo last week; if not, Saints will hang 38 up again. Superdome was supposedly built on ancient Cajun burial grounds; 43 years of mostly futile football could be forgotten today with one big win.

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                    Comment


                    • #11
                      NFL


                      Sunday, January 24


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                      Tips and Trends
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                      New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts [CBS | 3:00 PM ET]

                      Jets: New York is the hottest team left in the playoffs as they've won 7 of their past 8 games SU. The Jets have won both of their playoff games SU as the listed underdog. The Jets are currently 11-7 both SU and ATS this season. The Jets have the unique record of having exactly the same record SU and ATS in each game this season. The Jets are 5-2 ATS this season as the listed underdog. Taking this a step further, New York is 1-2 ATS as the listed underdog of more more than a TD this season. Over the past 8 games, this Jets defense has held their opposition to 15 PTS or fewer, with the Colts being the team that scored 15 PTS. For the season, the Jets lead the NFL in both PPG and YPG, 14.8 and 252 respectively. Offensively, RB Thomas Jones leads the top ranked rushing offense averaging 172 YPG. Jones rushed for more than 1,400 YDS and had 14 TDs to help relieve pressure to rookie QB Mark Sanchez.

                      Jets are 8-2 ATS last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
                      Under is 4-0 last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

                      Key Injuries - LB Bart Scott (ankle) is probable.
                      DE Shaun Ellis (hand) is probable.

                      PROJECTED SCORE: 17 (Side of the Day)

                      Colts (-8, O/U 39): To say this is an interesting conference championship would be an understatement. For the 1st time in NFL history, we have two 1st year coaches meeting in a conference championship game. Motivation will be a factor, considering the Colts pulled their starters in the middle of a game, giving life to their current opponent today. The Colts were undefeated for most of the season, currently standing 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS. Indianapolis is 8-1 SU and 4-4-1 ATS at home this entire season. Indianapolis was 2-3 ATS as a favorite greater than 7 PTS this season. QB Peyton Manning leads this Colts offense, as he threw for 4,500 YDS and 33 TDs against 16 INTs. Manning was recently named the MVP of the season, the first player ever to have won it 4 times. Indianapolis has allowed 3 of their past 4 opponents to score more than 28 PTS.

                      Colts are 4-0 ATS last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
                      Under is 7-2 last 9 playoff games.

                      Key Injuries - DE Dwight Freeney (foot) is probable.
                      TE Dallas Clark (illness) is probable.

                      PROJECTED SCORE: 21



                      Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints [FOX | 6:40 PM ET]

                      Vikings: Brett Favre is doing it again, as he has taken another team to the brink of another Super Bowl. Favre is coming off one of his greatest performances ever, as he threw for a personal playoff high 4 TDs. Favre threw for more than 4,200 YDS with 33 TDs and only 7 INTs this season. Favre had the 2nd best QB Rating in the league at 107.2, trailing only Drew Brees. RB Adrian Peterson has struggled of late, as he hasn't rushed for 100 YDS or more in 8 straight games. Overall, this Vikings offense is truly special, as they averaged 29.4 PPG which trailed only the Saints. This Vikings defense is prone to making big plays, as they lead the NFL in sacks with 48. Pro Bowler DE Jared Allen led the NFC in sacks at 14.5. The Vikings enter tonight with a record of 14-3 SU and 10-6-1 ATS this season. It's been 3 months sine the Vikings won a road contest, but they are 4-4 both SU and ATS this season. The Vikings are 1-1 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season.

                      Vikings are 1-4 ATS last 5 playoff road games.
                      Over is 8-2 last 10 games as a road underdog.

                      Key Injuries - WR Percy Harvin (migraine) is questionable.
                      DT Kevin Williams (knee) is probable.

                      PROJECTED SCORE: 27

                      Saints (-3.5, O/U 53): This is the biggest game in New Orleans history, as they host the NFC Championship game for the opportunity to play in their 1st ever Super Bowl. QB Drew Brees appears to be the perfect QB to lead this team to the promise land. Brees threw for an NFL high 34 touchdowns and nearly 4,400 YDS. Rivers has a diverse group of targets to throw to, as he threw TD passes to 10 different receivers this season. The Saints averaged nearly 32 PPG, the only team in the NFL to average more than 30 PPG. The Saints are 14-3 SU and 9-8 ATS this season, including the playoffs. The Saints are 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS at home this season. New Orleans is also a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home favorite of a TD or less this season. The Saints will need to improve their run defense, as they were 21st in the league this year allowing more than 120 YPG this season.

                      Saints are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
                      Over is 4-0-1 last 5 playoff games.

                      Key Injuries - S Darren Sharper (knee) is probable.
                      TE Jeremy Shockey (knee) is probable.

                      PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (OVER - Total of the Day)


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