NFC/AFC Championship Weekend Picks and Notes !

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Championship Trends

It’s Championship Week in the NFL and with it two teams are one win away from playing in Miami for Super Bowl XLIV. Like most football fans nationwide, everyone has an opinion on who those two teams will be. Our database does, too.
There are generally two schools of thought when it comes to handicapping the final four teams on this week’s card. You can look at them statistically, or you can analyze them technically.

If we were interviewing handicappers we would have varying opinions on why any of the four teams will and advance. Ranging from players to fundamentals to situations, the answers would be all over the board.

But since our database has a language of its own, we are limited to asking questions and reading answers. Here are some of a half-dozen questions we posed to the database and the answers we found surround NFL Championship games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and since 1980, unless noted otherwise…

Q – How have home teams fared in this game?

A – NFC hosts are 21-8 SU and 18-11 ATS, while AFC home teams are 18-11 SU and 15-14 ATS.

Q –Who is the better money winner, favorites or dogs?

A – Favorites have owned the edge, going 38-19 SU and 32-25 ATS, including 29-17 SU and ATS when laying less than 10 points.

Q – How do teams that own the better record perform?

A – As the majority of time these are almost always the home team, the record for teams with a better win percentage are solid, going 37-16 SU and 31-22 ATS. When installed as dogs or favorites of les than 10 points these better record teams are 28-14 ATS.

Q – How do road teams playing off a road game fare?

A – Not all that well, as you might imagine. These guys are just 9-20 SU and 12-17 ATS and 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS when playing off back-to-back road games.

Q – How have teams that lost their final game of the regular season done in title games if they were playing with a week of rest after the loss?

A – Teams that were defeated in the their regular season finale are just 13-13 SU and 10-16 ATS in these games if they had a week off to prepare for their Division playoff game.

Q –How has the Over/Under fared in these games?

A – Surprisingly, games in which the posted totals have been at the opposite end of the ladder have gone ‘Over’ in title games since 1990. Games with a total of more than 46 points have gone ‘Over’ the number in 14 of 18 occurrences, while totals of less than 41 have gone 20-8-2 to the ‘Over’ as well.

There you have it. The database has spoken. Somewhere between its language and yours is a winner or two on this week’s card. Enjoy the games…

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AFC Title Game Odds

Nobody expected the New York Jets to make it this far. Well, nobody except maybe Rex Ryan, that is. But to go all the way to the final four of the 2009-10 NFL season? With Mark Sanchez at quarterback? Not many bet on that. If they did, they sure got down at better NFL odds than 13/2.

The Jets are still the long shot of the bunch when it comes to their futures odds to win the Super Bowl. Their upcoming opponents, the Indianapolis Colts, are the favorites to win it all at 6/5.

We don’t think it’s very likely the Jets will advance to the big game, let alone win it. (Then again, we had the Chargers by more than -8 against New York.) That said, Bodog opened the Colts at -7 but heavy action on Indy has moved the line, currently making them 8-point favorites in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game in Indianapolis. (With the Baltimore-Indy game, the book won on the moneyline and the under, but lost a big decision on the -7 Indy spread making this a good winner for Bodog's players.)

It would seem as though our clientele really, really likes Peyton Manning.

On Saturday, Indianapolis held the other team with the inexperienced quarterback, power running game, and formidable defense to a field goal in a 20-3 victory, so it’s not hard to understand why a lot of bettors like the Colts, even by more than a touchdown, against the Jets.

Come game time, we expect to see relatively balanced action on this matchup. As mentioned, the Colts have always been popular with our bettors, but the Jets have a huge New York audience that will be supporting them with both their hearts and wallets.

Jets backers have certainly fared well recently, with New York covering seven of its last eight games dating back to the regular season.

It’ll be interesting to see how much individual handicappers take into account the kicking game in picking this game. We all saw what happened to Nate Kaeding on Sunday. Well, he hadn’t missed a field in 20 tries before going 0-for-3 against the Jets. That’s what pressure can do to a guy.

Indianapolis kicker Matt Stover was perfect on Saturday, nailing one from 44 yards and another from 33. He’s also won a Super Bowl before, so he’s been in big situations before.

The big key for the Jets will be keeping the game close early, just like they did against the Chargers. That allowed them to stay patient on offense, even after failing to get a first down on their first few possessions.

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Betting the NFC Title Game

The New Orleans Saints came out of hibernation on Saturday with a huge 45-14 victory over the Arizona Cardinals to advance to Sunday’s NFC Championship game against the Minnesota Vikings.

Over at Bodog Sportsbook’s NFL betting lines we were cheering for New Orleans on the moneyline while hoping for Arizona on the spread (+7) and also the under.

The Saints had a great season overall but three straight losses to close the season, preceded by two squeakers no less, had a healthy contingent of Bodog bettors all over the Cards.

That was then.

Now that New Orleans has proven that the team that hammered the New England Patriots all the way back in Week 12 is still very much a reality, we felt we had to be pretty careful when we posted our point spread in the Vikings game.

We opened the Saints as 4.5-point favorites but have since moved to four. Our bettors seem to like Brett Favre right now as most of the money is coming in on the underdogs.

Both teams make a compelling argument for victory, both teams are popular with bettors, both teams have high-profile quarterbacks, and neither Minnesota nor New Orleans are big markets that can influence the spread.

The one trend that people will be talking about before this game is the Vikings’ record away from their own dome sweet dome. Minnesota was perfect at home this season, but dropped its last three road games of the year in Arizona, Carolina and Chicago.

Brett Favre was far from terrible away from the Metrodome. His quarterback rating on the road in 2009 was 96.2, compared to 118.1 at home.

It’s the defense that’s struggled for the Vikings without the raucous crowd on its side. Minnesota surrendered at least 20 points in six of their eight road games in the regular season, holding only Detroit and St. Louis to less.

Crowd noise can be a huge factor in football; just ask Tony Romo how difficult it was in the deafening conditions at the Metrodome. He was sacked six times on Sunday as the Cowboys were blown away 34-3.

Without the crowd noise to add to the confusion, that same Minnesota defense will have its hands full getting pressure on Drew Brees, who was only sacked 20 times all season. For their part, the Cards didn’t drop him once on the weekend.

As for the futures odds of the two remaining NFC teams, Bodog has the Saints at 2/1 and the Vikings at 4/1. I expect the most action to continue on Minnesota. That’s a pretty enticing payout for a very good team with no glaring weaknesses.

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Sanchez faces tough trend

Before there was Mark Sanchez, there was Joe Flacco. Before Flacco, there was Ben Roethlisberger. And before Big Ben, there was Shaun King.
Those four quarterbacks all have one thing in common: they all won at least one playoff game as a rookie quarterback. Come Sunday evening, the quartet could have another thing in common but it depends on this year’s rookie, New York’s Sanchez.

The former Southern California standout was selected with the sixth overall pick by the Jets in the first round of last year’s NFL Draft and was named the starting quarterback by head coach Rex Ryan. The young gun slinger has had his shares of ups and downs this season, but New York still managed advanced to next week’s AFC Championship game against Indianapolis after stopping San Diego 17-14 on the road last Sunday.

Ryan’s “Ground and Pound” approach is spearheaded by the top-ranked running offense and the league’s best defense. Saying they’ve been fortunate not to lean on Sanchez is an understatement according to VegasInsider.com handicapper and analyst Brian Edwards.

He explained, “It’s hard to take anything away from New York at this point, because it’s won two playoff games on the road. Sanchez was limited against the Bengals but he made big plays, two in particular to tight end Dustin Keller. Against the Chargers, he was handcuffed again and only passed for 93 yards.”

“Everybody knows that a sound running game and a great defense can win you championships, but what happens when you can’t run the football or your defense has a bad day, perhaps your special teams make a mistake? Is Sanchez the guy that can lead your team back from a double-digit deficit? From what I’ve seen so far, I find it hard to believe.”

Sanchez will get his chance to prove the doubters wrong on the Championship stage and hopefully he can do much better than the trio of signal callers mentioned above.

Last year, Baltimore won back-to-back playoff games on the road against Miami (27-9) and Tennessee (13-10). Standing behind center for the Ravens in those games was Joe Flacco, who didn’t do much to help his team in the victories, yet he didn’t hurt them either. The pair or wins helped the Ravens advance to the AFC Championship game at Pittsburgh. The Steelers captured a 23-14 victory and a large reason why the Ravens lost was because of Flacco, who went 13-of-30 for 141 yards and was picked off three times, one being returned to the house too. Pittsburgh eventually went on to defeat Arizona 27-23 in Super Bowl XLIII with Ben Roethlisberger as its starting quarterback.

The championship ring for Big Ben was his second in his short six-year career. It seems like yesterday that the six-foot-five giant was a rookie in 2004. During that season, starter Tommy Maddox was injured and the rookie out of Miami, Ohio stepped in and led Pitt to 13 consecutive regular season victories. In the Divisional Round of the playoffs the Steelers luckily edged the N.Y. Jets (20-17), which set up the Black and Gold for a home AFC Championship game against New England. Unfortunately for the Steelers, their defense didn’t show up and Roethlisberger didn’t help the cause with three costly interceptions against the Patriots. Two weeks later, New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 in Super Bowl XXXIX.

Another rookie who had a chance to shine in the conference championship was Tampa Bay’s Shaun King. In 1999, the Buccaneers squared off against the Rams in the NFC Championship from St. Louis. Like Flacco and Big Ben, King had a rough outing in the title game (13-of-29, 165 yards, 2 INTs) yet the Bucs only suffered an 11-6 decision to St. Louis because they had a scary-good defense. They picked off then-St. Louis quarterback Kurt Warner three times and held running back Marshall Faulk (53 total yards) in check. Tampa easily covered as 14 ½-point road underdogs and some folks will only remember this game for the “Bert Emanuel Rule.” We won’t waste space on the non-catch but did you really think King was going to win the game for Tampa Bay? Seven days after the Rams won this battle, they also held off the Tennessee Titans 23-16 to win Super Bowl XXXIV.

Can Sanchez end the streak Sunday and become the first rookie quarterback to play in a Super Bowl? Delving into the three previous situations further, you can make an argument that the Ravens, Steelers and Buccaneers were fortunate to reach the conference championship. They all caught lucky breaks and none of them won by more than three points in the Divisional Playoff round.

As Brian Edwards said above, you don’t want to discredit what the N.Y. Jets have done in the playoffs so far but could the Chargers have played any worse? Ten penalties, three missed field goals, two interceptions, and some poor coaching decisions will never help you win. Yet, San Diego still only lost by three points to the Jets.

If New York does lose, it might not fall on Sanchez’s shoulders but history has proven otherwise. And if Indianapolis keeps the trend rolling and puts another rookie in his place, then you might want to bet on Peyton Manning and the Colts two weeks later in Super Bowl XLIV.

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Jets, Colts and a spot in the Super Bowl

It’s not too often that a Week 16 game could come back and bite you in the ass, but that’s exactly what could happen in the AFC Championship Game on CBS at 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday.

Indianapolis (15-2 straight up, 10-4-1 against the spread) was en route to a 16-0 regular season and possibly even a history making Super Bowl championship to shut up the 1972 Miami Dolphins when they met the Jets at home in Week 16.

The Colts held onto a 15-10 lead with just over five minutes left in the third quarter when they decided to pull their starters. Backup quarterback Curtis Painter fumbled the ball when he was sacked by Calvin Pace, while Marques Douglas ran the ball back for the go-head touchdown. New York (11-7 SU, ATS) never looked back as they won as a 4 ½-point road pup 29-15.

Outside of that run at perfection, there wasn’t anything else Indy was playing for in that game since they had home field advantage wrapped up. The Jets, on the other hand, desperately needed to win that game to stay in the playoff hunt. Rex Ryan’s club took advantage of that win and a triumph in the regular season finale over Cincinnati (who didn’t have a damn thing to play for) to punch its ticket for the postseason.

Ryan actually took umbrage to the fact that his Jets were longshots to win it all at the start of the playoffs, but should he so miffed?

“As someone that was on the Jets in the regular season finale against the Bengals as well as their tainted win over the Colts, I would objectively make the case that they are overrated,” states VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Paul Bovi.

“This is a team that lost to the Jags, Falcons, Dolphins, and Bills at home this year and had the good fortune of facing two teams in Cincy and Indy that had next to no incentive to win their regular season games.” Bovi continues, “While they deserve credit for their playoff victories, it is hard to ignore the fact that the Chargers imploded on Sunday with costly penalties aside from their over all lack of execution.”

There is no doubt that the Jets have gotten lucky during the playoffs. This is a team that has seen its first two playoff opponents go 0-for-5 on field goals, when their kickers (Nate Kaeding and Shayne Graham) had missed five total field goal attempts during the regular season altogether. San Diego committed 10 penalties against the Jets last Sunday; they saw just under five yellow flags thrown against them during the regular season.

As lucky as Gang Green has been in the postseason, we should give credit where credit is due. New York had the best rushing offense in the NFL during the regular season at 172.3 yards per game. They’ve kept that pace up in the playoffs, averaging 170.0 YPG on the ground through their first two tests. Shonn Greene has been particularly impressive with 263 rushing yards and two trips to the end zone.

New York has needed its rushing game to perform because offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will be damned if he takes to the air with Mark Sanchez under center. Sanchez doesn’t have terrible stats for the playoffs (63.2 completion percentage, 282 yards, 2 touchdowns), but those numbers are misleading. The rookie signal caller only had 23 pass attempts against the Bolts, completing 12 of them for 100 yards for a score and a pick. In fact, he’s only had five games this year where he threw the ball more than 30 times.

Unfortunately for Sanchez and the rest of the Jets’ offense, Indy’s defense looked pretty darn good last week. The Colts gave up just 87 yards on the ground and 183 through the air to Baltimore in a 20-3 lambasting as 6 ½-point home favorites. They also got Joe Flacco to throw two interceptions, but that’s a bit misleading since they came in the final two minutes of the game.

Those numbers against the pass for the Colts last week makes sense as they were 14th in the league, giving up just 212.7 YPG. Plus, Sanchez only threw for 106 yards against them in Week 16. Against the run, however, Indianapolis will be tested by the best when you consider they have the NFL’s 24th-ranked rush defense, allowing 126.5 rushing YPG.

And if the defense doesn’t hold steady, it’s not that big a deal. At least it isn’t a big deal when you have the best quarterback the league has ever seen in Peyton Manning. All he’s done is rank in the Top 10 in efficiency (99.9 rating), completion percentage (68.8 percent), passing yards (281.3 YPG) and touchdowns (33).

Manning has even been able to do this with a rebuilt receiving corp. Now he’s still getting the major contribution out of Reggie Wayne (100 receptions, 1,264 yards, 10 TD) and Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TD). What we didn’t expect was Anthony Gonzalez being out for the season with a right knee injury. What we really didn’t expect was getting great performances second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (47 rec., 765 yards, 4 TD) and rookie target Austin Collie (60 rec., 676 yards, 7 TD).

Indy needs the passing game to click because its rushing offense is lacking. The Colts are the worst running attack in the NFL, gaining 80.9 YPG on the ground. Joseph Addai has done a decent job with 828 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Donald Brown has shown flashes of his days at Connecticut, but has only gained 281 yards on the ground with three scores.

Success for the Colts on the attack is definitely not guaranteed against the best defense in the NFL. The Jets are giving up 312.5 YPG in the playoffs right now, but are second to only the Ravens with three interceptions. Darrelle Revis has two of those picks to his credit, one coming against San Diego last weekend. It also doesn’t hurt that New York was the best pass defense in the league with an average of 153.7 YPG during the regular season.

Even though the Jets are leading a charmed life and have (for bettor or worse) won in Indianapolis, the Colts are still listed as 7 ½-point home favorites with a total of 39. Bettors can play on New York to keep jamming its foot into that glass slipper for a outright win at a plus-280 return (risk $100 to win $280).

The Colts were actually just 4 ½-point home favorites for that much talked about game in Week 16 against New York, but Bodog’s sportsbook manager Richard Gardner explains the difference. “In week 16, when the Jets played the Colts, the line was actually as high as -6, but with the signing of the third strong QB of the practice roster books realized that the Colts were not as interested in playing for the perfect season and the line dropped to -4 ½. This week obviously the Colts do have something to play for and there are no questions that the book has to answer about playing time for the stars. This game is a must win for both teams, not just one, so that allows for the 3 ½-point move from the last games closing line.”

Recent history for the AFC Title Game bodes well for the Colts as the favorites have gone 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the last seven bouts. The ‘over’ was a profitable 5-2 in that stretch as well.

Adding fuel to that fire is the fact that Indy has gone 23-3 SU in the last five years when they’re posted as a 7 ½-point home “chalk.” Bettors have watched them cover the spread in 11 of those contests though.

New York has shown an affinity for helping its backers cash in at the window when listed as a road ‘dog, as evidenced by a 7-2 SU and ATS mark. That includes a 4-2 SU and ATS record for the Jets on the road in Ryan’s first season.

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Vikings at Saints

The last obstacle to jump before heading to South Florida for Super Bowl XLII is winning the NFC Title Game. The top two seeds will battle it out under the Louisiana Superdome when the 13-3 Saints host the 12-4 Vikings.

Both teams are coming off impressive blowout victories in the Divisional Playoff round to advance this stage. New Orleans stomped Arizona, 45-14, moving on to its second NFC Title game in four seasons. Minnesota destroyed Dallas, 34-3 as 2 ½-point favorites, concluding the season 9-0 at the Metrodome.

The Saints stumbled into the postseason with three consecutive losses following a franchise-best 13-0 start. New Orleans rebounded nicely with the obliteration of the reigning NFC Champion Cardinals, snapping a 5-game ATS losing streak. After posting a 6-0 SU/ATS mark to begin the season, the Saints did very little favors to their backers, going 3-8 ATS, including a 2-4 ATS ledger the last six at the Superdome.

The Vikings saved their worst football for the final month of the regular season, posting 2-3 SU/ATS record the last five weeks of 2009. Minnesota's destruction of Dallas helped silence any question about the Vikings being a legit threat in the NFC. The Metrodome was the backdrop for nine Minnesota victories in which the Vikes scored at least 27 points in each win.

With Brett Favre and the Vikings hitting the road for this NFC Title Game, many bettors will point to Minnesota's struggles in losses at Chicago, Carolina, and Arizona over the last six weeks. The Vikes did have problems against the Panthers and Cardinals, but were edged by the Bears in overtime. Minnesota was listed as an underdog twice this season, splitting the two contests. The Vikings lost a back-and-forth game at Pittsburgh as six-point underdogs, while winning at Lambeau Field over the Packers as 3 ½-point 'dogs.

Minnesota's defense on the road wasn't spectacular over the last five games, allowing 29 ppg. That was in stark contrast to the 14 ppg allowed the first three away contests. The explanation is easy on why the defensive efforts suffered as the season wore on. The initial three games were against the Browns, Lions, and Rams - three of the seven worst offenses in the league.

New Orleans' biggest problems trying to cover numbers have been the inflated ones. The Saints are 4-7 ATS laying at least a touchdown, but own a perfect 5-0 ATS mark as a favorite of six points or less. Extending things back to start the 2008, Sean Payton's team is 10-1 ATS as 'chalk' of less than six points. Who do you think that lone loss was to? Yep, the Vikings on Monday Night last October. Minnesota held off New Orleans, 30-27 as three-point 'dogs, despite a pair of punt return touchdowns by Reggie Bush. The quarterback that led the Vikings to victory in the Big Easy was none other than...Gus Frerotte. And interestingly, Chester Taylor threw more touchdown passes than Frerotte (1-0).

VI capper Joe Nelson says this matchup is what most fans expected in the NFC, "These were the two teams that looked the best in the NFC for most of the season until some momentum was lost late in the year, but this game makes for an incredibly intriguing and potentially entertaining matchup. The Saints, meanwhile, lost twice at home late in the season and the home-field edge does not have quite the cache it once did."

The conference championships over the last five years haven't exactly been defensive battles. Four of the last five conference title games in each league have seen the 'over' hit, including each of the championships in 2008. Arizona and Philadelphia combined to score 57 points, easily eclipsing the "47" posted by the oddmakers. In the AFC, the Ravens and Steelers barely broke the 'over' of "35" with a 23-14 final.

The lone 'unders' in the previous five seasons in this round were the 2007 AFC Title Game between the Chargers and Patriots ('under' 48) and the 2004 NFC Title Game involving the Eagles and Falcons ('under' 37 ½).

The favorites have alternated covering the AFC Championship over the last five seasons, with the Steelers cashing as 'chalk' in '08. The underdogs are 2-0 SU/ATS the previous two NFC Championships with the Cardinals and Giants taking the down the money when getting points.

The two players to focus on will be the signal-callers, according to Nelson, "This match-up will be about the quarterbacks as both Favre and Drew Brees delivered incredible statistical seasons. The numbers are very similar with 37 touchdowns, while Brees had a slightly higher completion percentage and Favre threw fewer interceptions. The season statistics give a big edge to Minnesota on defense, yielding 55 fewer yards per game. The Vikings showed some vulnerability against Felix Jones and the Dallas rushing attack last week, but for the year allowed just 87 yards per game on the ground. Minnesota's pass rush has been dominant in big games with great efforts against the Packers and a huge day last week with six sacks while also forcing three turnovers."

This will be Favre's fifth conference championship appearance in his career, going 2-2 with the Packers. Location didn't matter, with Favre compiling a 1-1 record each at home and on the road in conference title games. Brees owns a 2-2 career playoff record, with three of those games coming at home.

Nelson says at least one of these teams will finally leap an elusive hurdle, "One thing is clear, the postseason demons for one franchise will be cleared up as New Orleans has never been to the Super Bowl and the Vikings have failed in prime opportunities, including four straight NFC championship losses. Minnesota's running game has not been able to perform in recent weeks and the Vikings will have a hard time keeping pace in a shootout in this environment. Look for the Saints to deliver at home as Minnesota got its big win when doubted last week, while the Saints will have big play potential."

The Saints are listed as 3 ½-point favorites in most spots, with the total set at 53. The game kicks off at 6:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on FOX.

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Championship Notebook

Wow...the New Orleans Saints, one step from the Super Bowl? Who Dat, indeed!
Forgive us for devoting more space than usual to one of the four remaining teams in contention for the Super Bowl. But, if nothing else, witnessing the Saints progress to the penultimate weekend is something of a landmark event, given that New Orleans is one of the few remaining NFL franchises never to reach the big game.

Well, sort of. The Saints once did reach the Super Bowl, but only on the big screen, not in real life. An underrated 1969 flick entitled Number One depicted New Orleans progressing all of the way to the Super Bowl, and featured several original Saints as themselves, including star wideout Danny Abramowicz and the veteran defensive end, giant Doug Atkins, not to mention the one and only Al Hirt, the famed local trumpeter, who was also a minority partner in the Saints during their formative years. And should Drew Brees steer the real Saints to the "Supe" on February 7, we might forever have to retire our favorite "Charlton Heston remains the only QB ever to take the Saints to the Super Bowl" line, one that we have often used in our annual.

The movie was based around Heston's character, veteran (washed-up?) QB Cat Catlan, who, in typical Hollywood fashion, had more things to worry about (including the usual vices, drinking and women) than enemy defenses. Although the flick didn't threaten to gain any Academy Award nominations, we've seen worse sports movies, and the supporting cast behind Heston was a rather distinguished one, including Bruce Dern, Jessica Walter, and Diana Muldaur, not to mention Hirt and those original Saints, Abramowicz and Atkins. In fact, we were just talking about the old movie a few months ago with legendary New Orleans Times-Picayune sports columnist Peter Finney, who recalled the production of Number One and regaled with his own tales about those exciting days when the actual filming took place. Like Finney, we couldn't believe that 40 years had passed since Number One's release...and that the Saints still hadn't reached the Super Bowl. Until, perhaps, this weekend.

Having been publishing since 1957, we have seen all of the AFC and NFC title games since the 1970 merger, as well as the previous championship gives in the NFL (at least from 1957) and AFL (from 1960). Some of pro football's all-time classic games have occurred in the conference championship round, and over the past two years we've rated the best of those since the merger, with the classic '81 NFC title game between Dallas and San Francisco, featuring "The Catch" by Dwight Clark in the 49ers' pulsating 28-27 win, ranking on top. Our top five was rounded out by the exhausting 2006 AFC title game in which Peyton Manning's Colts rallied from an early 21-3 deficit to finally collar the Patriots in the last minute and win by a 38-34 count; "The Drive" authored by Denver's John Elway in the '86 AFC title game at Cleveland, won in overtime by the Broncos, 23-20; "The Fumble" game in the subsequent '87 AFC title game rematch, again won by Elway's Denver over Marty Schottenheimer's Browns, 38-33; and the Falcons' 30-27 overtime white-knuckler in the '98 NFC title game at Minnesota. But since we've been publishing, we think the most memorable of these conference/pre-merger league title games came in the 1967 NFL title clash at Green Bay, the Packers' famed "Ice Bowl" win over the Cowboys by a 21-17 count at Lambeau Field. And it's a game in which we believe some of the real heroes of that day have been overlooked by a sports media that have instead continued to shower accolades on Vince Lombardi's Packers.

That's because we've always believed the better team that day at Lambeau Field was actually Dallas, even though we'd have a hard time convincing anybody other than Dan Reeves, Don Meredith, Bob Lilly, and any other old Cowboys of the same thing.

Remember, the conditions were deplorable that New Year's Eve afternoon in Green Bay, with the temperature dropping to -16 and field eventually freezing solid. Dallas' big play offense was having much more trouble dealing with the elements, and when the Pack had jumped to an early 14-0 lead thanks to a pair of Bart Starr-to-Boyd Dowler TD passes, Tom Landry's team could have been excused for throwing in the towel. Instead, the Cowboys gallantly made a game of it, not only clawing back thanks to a TD and field goal set up by their defense, but soon dominating the contest. And when Dan Reeves hit Lance Rentzel with a clever 50-yard halfback option pass for a TD on the first play of the 4th quarter, Dallas had amazingly surged ahead by a 17-14 count. Indeed, Green Bay had done little from early in the 2nd quarter until midway in the 4th Q, when finally moving into range for a potentially-tying 40-yard FG by Don Chandler that missed badly. When Starr got the ball back for one last drive beginning at his own 32-yard-line with 4:50 to play, the field had almost completely frozen over, at that stage giving an enormous edge to the Green Bay offense, which at least knew where it wanted to go on its plays; by that time the Cowboy defenders might as well have been wearing ice skates, having trouble keeping their footing, forced to react rather than their usual anticipate and attack mode that had stymied Starr & Co. when the traction was a bit better earlier in the game. Starr was able to methodically move the Pack downfield, mostly using short passes mixed with occasional runs featuring Donny Anderson and unsung star Chuck Mercein, although the Cowboys eventually made what was looking like a heroic goal line stand in the last minute. Until, that is, Starr sneaked across from the 1-yard line with 13 seconds to play to give the Packers a 21-17 win, on a play G Jerry Kramer (who famously took credit for the winning block instead of C Ken Bowman, who was just as instrumental on the play) appeared to jump before the snap, but was not whistled.

The only ongoing regret we have about the game remains the disappearance, save for a couple of early plays, of the original CBS telecast, described in the first half by the legendary Ray Scott (then announcing Green Bay's games on CBS) and in the second half by Hall-of-Famer Jack Buck (then Dallas' CBS play-by-play man), with Frank Gifford providing color analysis throughout. Scott and Buck had similarly split the play-by-play duties for CBS in the previous year's NFL title game at the Cotton Bowl (with Buck doing the first half and Scott the second half on that occasion), won dramatically by the Pack, 34-27. You'll have to trust our word that Buck, in particular, was never in better form, especially when describing the Packers' game-winning "Ice Bowl" drive. Radio play-by-play from both the Cowboys (featuring Bill Mercer) and Packers (featuring Ted Moore) broadcasts remain in their entirety, although neither capture the drama of the event as well as did Buck's CBS commentary, which has sadly been lost.

Nonetheless, the combination of the stakes of the game, the elements, the drama, and the storied combatants (in what was Lombardi's last season as Green Bay's coach) continue to enhance the memories of the "Ice Bowl" and rightfully place it as perhaps the most memorable game in NFL history. Even if we believe, 42 years later, that the better team might have lost that day.

As we enter conference championship weekend, we would be remiss if not offering a reminder about past results, which historically have been rife with lopsided scorelines and should offer caution to handicappers whose initial instincts are often to side with a top-quality team in what is a rare underdog role. Although we have been treated to some compelling conference title games in recent years (indeed, there's only been one romp in the past six conference title games, that being the host Bears over the Saints, making their first-ever conference title appearance, in the 2006 NFC Championship), the fact is that there have been countless one-sided affairs in this round over the decades. Almost half of the conference title games since the 1970 merger (38 of 78) have been decided by 14 points or more.

Following is a list of point-spread breakdowns of AFC & NFC Championships since 1970.

Favorites/Underdogs (one pick 'em): 42-33-2
Favorites straight up: 50-27
Favored by 1-3 points: 12-9
Favored by 3 1/2-6 1/2 points: 12-12-2
Favored by 7-9 1/2 points: 14-4
Favored by 10 or more: 4-8

Home teams straight up: 52-26
Home teams vs. spread: 44-32-2
Home favorites vs. spread: 36-25-2

Home underdogs vs. spread: 8-6
Home pick'em vs. spread: 0-1
Overs/unders (since 1986): 26-20

MARGINS OF VICTORY

1-3 points: 9
4-6 points: 10
7-10 points: 11
11-13 points: 10
14 or more: 38

[dss_pansat]

Nice note StarDust Bum. Thanks

[st bobby]

nice work

[StarDust Bum]

Thanks...I know lots of reading....but any edge we can have on a game or games can help..........hope all this information helps.....am willing to share whatever i find........

Good Luck !.............

[Chado1]

GL with the NFL this weekend BUM!!!

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Championships

Divisional Playoff Recap
After watching the ‘over’ go 4-0 in the Wild Card round, the pendulum swung the other way last weekend as the ‘under’ produced a 3-1 record in the Divisional Playoffs. The results were clear-cut and gamblers with winning tickets didn’t have to sweat at all. The Saints’ 45-14 victory over the Cardinals was the only game that went ‘over’ and that happened with both teams posting zeros on the scoreboard in the fourth quarter. Second-half players watched the ‘under’ go 3-1, and the lone ‘over’ in the final 30 minutes came in the Chargers-Jets battle, luckily too. Most books kept the number at 20 and the two teams combined for 21 in the final quarter. Through the playoffs the ‘over’ stands at 5-3 through the first eight battles.

AFC Championship – N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis

According to the early betting trends at Sportsbook.com, the public has leaned heavily toward the ‘under’ which has pushed the total from 41 to 39. The way the Jets are playing on both sides of the ball, it’s hard not to expect a low-scoring affair. Plus, Indianapolis plays possession football as well these days, evidenced by its 20-3 stifling victory over Baltimore last weekend.

The Jets own the top-ranked defense in the league and earned a little more respect when they held the Bengals and Chargers to 14 points in their first two road playoff games. The Colts’ unit is no slouch either and they have the numbers to prove it too, especially at home. If you toss out the 34-point explosion that New England posted at Lucas Oil Field in mid-October, no other opponent was able to penetrate the Colts’ defense. In meaningful games, Indy held the other seven teams to 17 points or less, which includes last week’s three-point effort versus the Ravens.


New York did put up 29 in Week 16 at Indianapolis but 14 of the points came off a kick return and a defensive touchdown. We won’t toss out that game completely because it does give us some nuggets, especially on the Jets. New York used its ground and pound attack to pile up 202 rushing yards, the majority coming in the second half. QB Mark Sanchez only passed for 102 yards and he remained handcuffed due to the help from his defense. The Jets’ offense only accounted for 10 points in this game, while Peyton Manning put up three scores in six possessions before he was yanked.

What happens if you give the league’s Most Valuable Player double the reps on Sunday? You do the math folks, and toss this note into your handicapping. The Colts offensive line has only allowed their signal callers to be sacked 13 times, which is the best in the league. In case you don’t know, the Jets don’t have a legit pass rush. Most would expect a serious blitz package and that could be dangerous against Manning.

Looking back at Sanchez, he’s done enough not to hurt the Jets but can he step up when necessary. Rookie quarterbacks haven’t fared well in championships according to past history and he hasn’t shown much in these playoffs. With that being said, betting the Jets team total ‘under’ looks pretty promising.

NFC Championship - Minnesota at New Orleans

The last time the NFC Championship saw a total in the fifties was during the 1998-99 season when Atlanta upset Minnesota 30-27 on the road as a 10 ½-point underdog. The ‘over/under’ on this contest was 55 and it’s fair to say that the Saints’ juggernaut is just as good if not better than the Vikings’ offense that season. We’ll find out for sure for this Sunday when the New Orleans faces a stout Minnesota defense that has been a beast at times, especially at home. On the road, well that’s been a different story for the Vikings.

Minnesota gave up an average of a 14.3 PPG in its first three road tilts albeit against the Browns, Lions and Rams. In the remaining five, the team surrendered 26 points or more in all five. Make a note that the Steelers posted two defensive touchdowns in their 27-17 home victory over Minnesota on Oct. 25. Throwing that game out, the Vikings just haven’t had the same energy outside of Minneapolis and now they head to New Orleans, who just put up 35 points in the first half during its 45-14 win over Arizona in the Divisional Playoffs.

Just looking at those numbers makes you believe that this game could be another clear-cut ‘over’ winner on the fast surface of the Superdome. And we haven’t even talked about quarterback Brett Favre and a Minnesota team that scored 27 points or more in 14 of 17 games.

Would it be foolish to bet the ‘under’ on this game? VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards answered, “Anytime you have totals posted of 50-plus, it only takes a couple drives ending in field goals to switch the pace of the game. Last week, the Saints and Cards put up eight touchdowns and four of them were big-play scores, which included a punt return touchdown.”

“On average, teams in the NFL get about 12-14 possessions during a game. Last week, New Orleans had a dozen and it converted half of them into scores, which is incredible. What happens when they only convert four or even five drives into points, and two of those turn into three-spots rather than seven on the scoreboard?”

Edwards makes a good point about tempo and even though the 59 points scored in the Saints’ win last week went ‘over’ the closing number of 57, the ‘under’ still owns an impressive 11-5 (69%) record in games this year that had a total of 50 or higher.

Right now, a 27-24 outcome is a winning ‘under’ ticket.

Championship Trends


The ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run in the NFC Championship, but that was preceded by a 4-0 ‘under’ streak.
The AFC Championship has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 the last 10 seasons. Also, the ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four title games that had a total of 40 or less.
The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five championship games, both AFC and NFC, played indoors.
Peyton Manning has played in two championships, and he’s seen the total go 1-1.
The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in championships with an ‘over/under’ of 50 or higher.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves

Action has been good thus far in Las Vegas Sports Books for this weekends Championship games, but the sharp money hasn’t shown its hand yet. Most of the action coming in has been small money from the public with a wide array of opinions.

Ticket counts at a few different properties indicate the type of betting patterns and action that will magnify about 90% more over the weekend, but it’s a good sample ratio of what’s to come, minus the sharp money.

The Colts are trending at about a 9-to-5 edge in overall tickets written. Some books are reporting that this game is similar to what we see every year in the Super Bowl, laying the points with the favorite and taking the money line with the 'dog.

Over at the Las Vegas Hilton, they opened the game Sunday with the Colts a 7-point favorite and a standard money line of Colts minus-330 with a very generous take back of plus-270. As the game moved to 7 ½, so did the money line, peaking at -400/+330.

By Tuesday, a few Sports Books had gone to Colts -8, but the money being dealt was still set as 7 or 7 ½ point favorite on the chart.

The Hilton has their money line currently set at Colts -340/+280, which is essentially a strong 7-point favorite line.

Every year in the Super Bowl, the favorite money line is always the best value of the year because the bettor gets about 20% to 30% value of what the true number is thanks to the majority of the public forsaking the points.

The Super Bowl is the ultimate public game where they determine which way the lines go and the sharp money has little bearing on anything, as opposed to the rest of the year when the sharps are very well-respected.

As long as everyone is taking the Jets on the money line, that line will drop no matter how high the spread goes.

The story is a little different for the Vikings-Saints game. Ticket counts are showing almost split action across the board with a slight lean towards the Saints. Many Vegas Books have flirted with moving the Saints to 4-point favorites, but quickly came back to 3 ½.

Most books like to have somewhat of a decision on the big games, while others are content to grind it out and juice out the public money. The Saints game is building up to be one of those games that the books won’t have to sweat on much, other than futures. They can grind out the parlay win and then hope the 'dog doesn’t win straight up to avoid increased odds payouts on straight and parlay wagers.

The ultimate hope for the Vegas Sports Books on Sunday will be the Jets covering the spread, but losing to avoid the money line combinations on the Jets. Once all the parlays and liability is known after the Colts game going into the late Saints game, it’ll be more clear to them what they want, but it’s likely to be the same -- 'dog covers, but doesn’t win.

As for the futures, not many are rooting for the Jets even though having a New York team in the Super Bowl would be better for Super Bowl handle. The Vikings always traditionally get bet on massively much in the same way the Cubs and Twins always do for World Series futures. Many books have said that the Vikings would be the second-worst outcome.

For Las Vegas Strip properties, the futures are a huge chunk of change. Textbook bookmaking says you don’t co-mingle and make decisions for one proposition to off-set the other, but if the risk is substantial, it’s hard to ignore.

These strip properties have nurtured the Super Bowl futures all season since last Super Bowl and watched folks come in every weekend from all corners of the world taking souvenir bet slips back home and now it’s close to paying up. Generally, the book will hold 35% to 50% of the entire Super Bowl future handle. Should the favored Colts win it all, that hold percentage will be closer to 75% hold.

[StarDust Bum]

AFC Championship

It’s not too often that a Week 16 game could come back and bite you in the ass, but that’s exactly what could happen in the AFC Championship Game on CBS at 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday.

Indianapolis (15-2 straight up, 10-4-1 against the spread) was en route to a 16-0 regular season and possibly even a history making Super Bowl championship to shut up the 1972 Miami Dolphins when they met the Jets at home in Week 16.

The Colts held onto a 15-10 lead with just over five minutes left in the third quarter when they decided to pull their starters. Backup quarterback Curtis Painter fumbled the ball when he was sacked by Calvin Pace, while Marques Douglas ran the ball back for the go-head touchdown. New York (11-7 SU, ATS) never looked back as they won as a 4 ½-point road pup 29-15.

Outside of that run at perfection, there wasn’t anything else Indy was playing for in that game since they had home field advantage wrapped up. The Jets, on the other hand, desperately needed to win that game to stay in the playoff hunt. Rex Ryan’s club took advantage of that win and a triumph in the regular season finale over Cincinnati (who didn’t have a damn thing to play for) to punch its ticket for the postseason.

Ryan actually took umbrage to the fact that his Jets were longshots to win it all at the start of the playoffs, but should he so miffed?

“As someone that was on the Jets in the regular season finale against the Bengals as well as their tainted win over the Colts, I would objectively make the case that they are overrated,” states VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Paul Bovi.

“This is a team that lost to the Jags, Falcons, Dolphins, and Bills at home this year and had the good fortune of facing two teams in Cincy and Indy that had next to no incentive to win their regular season games.” Bovi continues, “While they deserve credit for their playoff victories, it is hard to ignore the fact that the Chargers imploded on Sunday with costly penalties aside from their over all lack of execution.”

There is no doubt that the Jets have gotten lucky during the playoffs. This is a team that has seen its first two playoff opponents go 0-for-5 on field goals, when their kickers (Nate Kaeding and Shayne Graham) had missed five total field goal attempts during the regular season altogether. San Diego committed 10 penalties against the Jets last Sunday; they saw just under five yellow flags thrown against them during the regular season.

As lucky as Gang Green has been in the postseason, we should give credit where credit is due. New York had the best rushing offense in the NFL during the regular season at 172.3 yards per game. They’ve kept that pace up in the playoffs, averaging 170.0 YPG on the ground through their first two tests. Shonn Greene has been particularly impressive with 263 rushing yards and two trips to the end zone.

New York has needed its rushing game to perform because offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will be damned if he takes to the air with Mark Sanchez under center. Sanchez doesn’t have terrible stats for the playoffs (63.2 completion percentage, 282 yards, 2 touchdowns), but those numbers are misleading. The rookie signal caller only had 23 pass attempts against the Bolts, completing 12 of them for 100 yards for a score and a pick. In fact, he’s only had five games this year where he threw the ball more than 30 times.

Unfortunately for Sanchez and the rest of the Jets’ offense, Indy’s defense looked pretty darn good last week. The Colts gave up just 87 yards on the ground and 183 through the air to Baltimore in a 20-3 lambasting as 6 ½-point home favorites. They also got Joe Flacco to throw two interceptions, but that’s a bit misleading since they came in the final two minutes of the game.

Those numbers against the pass for the Colts last week makes sense as they were 14th in the league, giving up just 212.7 YPG. Plus, Sanchez only threw for 106 yards against them in Week 16. Against the run, however, Indianapolis will be tested by the best when you consider they have the NFL’s 24th-ranked rush defense, allowing 126.5 rushing YPG.

And if the defense doesn’t hold steady, it’s not that big a deal. At least it isn’t a big deal when you have the best quarterback the league has ever seen in Peyton Manning. All he’s done is rank in the Top 10 in efficiency (99.9 rating), completion percentage (68.8 percent), passing yards (281.3 YPG) and touchdowns (33).

Manning has even been able to do this with a rebuilt receiving corp. Now he’s still getting the major contribution out of Reggie Wayne (100 receptions, 1,264 yards, 10 TD) and Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TD). What we didn’t expect was Anthony Gonzalez being out for the season with a right knee injury. What we really didn’t expect was getting great performances second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (47 rec., 765 yards, 4 TD) and rookie target Austin Collie (60 rec., 676 yards, 7 TD).

Indy needs the passing game to click because its rushing offense is lacking. The Colts are the worst running attack in the NFL, gaining 80.9 YPG on the ground. Joseph Addai has done a decent job with 828 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Donald Brown has shown flashes of his days at Connecticut, but has only gained 281 yards on the ground with three scores.

Success for the Colts on the attack is definitely not guaranteed against the best defense in the NFL. The Jets are giving up 312.5 YPG in the playoffs right now, but are second to only the Ravens with three interceptions. Darrelle Revis has two of those picks to his credit, one coming against San Diego last weekend. It also doesn’t hurt that New York was the best pass defense in the league with an average of 153.7 YPG during the regular season.

Even though the Jets are leading a charmed life and have (for bettor or worse) won in Indianapolis, the Colts are still listed as 7 ½-point home favorites with a total of 39. Bettors can play on New York to keep jamming its foot into that glass slipper for a outright win at a plus-280 return (risk $100 to win $280).

The Colts were actually just 4 ½-point home favorites for that much talked about game in Week 16 against New York, but Bodog’s sportsbook manager Richard Gardner explains the difference. “In week 16, when the Jets played the Colts, the line was actually as high as -6, but with the signing of the third strong QB of the practice roster books realized that the Colts were not as interested in playing for the perfect season and the line dropped to -4 ½. This week obviously the Colts do have something to play for and there are no questions that the book has to answer about playing time for the stars. This game is a must win for both teams, not just one, so that allows for the 3 ½-point move from the last games closing line.”

Recent history for the AFC Title Game bodes well for the Colts as the favorites have gone 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the last seven bouts. The ‘over’ was a profitable 5-2 in that stretch as well.

Adding fuel to that fire is the fact that Indy has gone 23-3 SU in the last five years when they’re posted as a 7 ½-point home “chalk.” Bettors have watched them cover the spread in 11 of those contests though.

New York has shown an affinity for helping its backers cash in at the window when listed as a road ‘dog, as evidenced by a 7-2 SU and ATS mark. That includes a 4-2 SU and ATS record for the Jets on the road in Ryan’s first season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFC Championship

The last obstacle to jump before heading to South Florida for Super Bowl XLII is winning the NFC Title Game. The top two seeds will battle it out under the Louisiana Superdome when the 13-3 Saints host the 12-4 Vikings.

Both teams are coming off impressive blowout victories in the Divisional Playoff round to advance this stage. New Orleans stomped Arizona, 45-14, moving on to its second NFC Title game in four seasons. Minnesota destroyed Dallas, 34-3 as 2 ½-point favorites, concluding the season 9-0 at the Metrodome.

The Saints stumbled into the postseason with three consecutive losses following a franchise-best 13-0 start. New Orleans rebounded nicely with the obliteration of the reigning NFC Champion Cardinals, snapping a 5-game ATS losing streak. After posting a 6-0 SU/ATS mark to begin the season, the Saints did very little favors to their backers, going 3-8 ATS, including a 2-4 ATS ledger the last six at the Superdome.

The Vikings saved their worst football for the final month of the regular season, posting 2-3 SU/ATS record the last five weeks of 2009. Minnesota's destruction of Dallas helped silence any question about the Vikings being a legit threat in the NFC. The Metrodome was the backdrop for nine Minnesota victories in which the Vikes scored at least 27 points in each win.

With Brett Favre and the Vikings hitting the road for this NFC Title Game, many bettors will point to Minnesota's struggles in losses at Chicago, Carolina, and Arizona over the last six weeks. The Vikes did have problems against the Panthers and Cardinals, but were edged by the Bears in overtime. Minnesota was listed as an underdog twice this season, splitting the two contests. The Vikings lost a back-and-forth game at Pittsburgh as six-point underdogs, while winning at Lambeau Field over the Packers as 3 ½-point 'dogs.

Minnesota's defense on the road wasn't spectacular over the last five games, allowing 29 ppg. That was in stark contrast to the 14 ppg allowed the first three away contests. The explanation is easy on why the defensive efforts suffered as the season wore on. The initial three games were against the Browns, Lions, and Rams - three of the seven worst offenses in the league.

New Orleans' biggest problems trying to cover numbers have been the inflated ones. The Saints are 4-7 ATS laying at least a touchdown, but own a perfect 5-0 ATS mark as a favorite of six points or less. Extending things back to start the 2008, Sean Payton's team is 10-1 ATS as 'chalk' of less than six points. Who do you think that lone loss was to? Yep, the Vikings on Monday Night last October. Minnesota held off New Orleans, 30-27 as three-point 'dogs, despite a pair of punt return touchdowns by Reggie Bush. The quarterback that led the Vikings to victory in the Big Easy was none other than...Gus Frerotte. And interestingly, Chester Taylor threw more touchdown passes than Frerotte (1-0).

VI capper Joe Nelson says this matchup is what most fans expected in the NFC, "These were the two teams that looked the best in the NFC for most of the season until some momentum was lost late in the year, but this game makes for an incredibly intriguing and potentially entertaining matchup. The Saints, meanwhile, lost twice at home late in the season and the home-field edge does not have quite the cache it once did."

The conference championships over the last five years haven't exactly been defensive battles. Four of the last five conference title games in each league have seen the 'over' hit, including each of the championships in 2008. Arizona and Philadelphia combined to score 57 points, easily eclipsing the "47" posted by the oddmakers. In the AFC, the Ravens and Steelers barely broke the 'over' of "35" with a 23-14 final.

The lone 'unders' in the previous five seasons in this round were the 2007 AFC Title Game between the Chargers and Patriots ('under' 48) and the 2004 NFC Title Game involving the Eagles and Falcons ('under' 37 ½).

The favorites have alternated covering the AFC Championship over the last five seasons, with the Steelers cashing as 'chalk' in '08. The underdogs are 2-0 SU/ATS the previous two NFC Championships with the Cardinals and Giants taking the down the money when getting points.

The two players to focus on will be the signal-callers, according to Nelson, "This match-up will be about the quarterbacks as both Favre and Drew Brees delivered incredible statistical seasons. The numbers are very similar with 37 touchdowns, while Brees had a slightly higher completion percentage and Favre threw fewer interceptions. The season statistics give a big edge to Minnesota on defense, yielding 55 fewer yards per game. The Vikings showed some vulnerability against Felix Jones and the Dallas rushing attack last week, but for the year allowed just 87 yards per game on the ground. Minnesota's pass rush has been dominant in big games with great efforts against the Packers and a huge day last week with six sacks while also forcing three turnovers."

This will be Favre's fifth conference championship appearance in his career, going 2-2 with the Packers. Location didn't matter, with Favre compiling a 1-1 record each at home and on the road in conference title games. Brees owns a 2-2 career playoff record, with three of those games coming at home.

Nelson says at least one of these teams will finally leap an elusive hurdle, "One thing is clear, the postseason demons for one franchise will be cleared up as New Orleans has never been to the Super Bowl and the Vikings have failed in prime opportunities, including four straight NFC championship losses. Minnesota's running game has not been able to perform in recent weeks and the Vikings will have a hard time keeping pace in a shootout in this environment. Look for the Saints to deliver at home as Minnesota got its big win when doubted last week, while the Saints will have big play potential."

Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED, discusses the early line movement on this contest, "The line opened with the Saints -4 and quickly moved up to -4 ½. It stayed there for only a day before it's descent to -4, then -3 ½, all due to early Vikings action and no early Saints money. The total hasn't budged from opening 53."

There won't be much movement going forward, according to Scott, "The line looks to have settled on 3 ½, but we expect by game-time to have more money on the Saints. When that begins to happen, we won't look to move off of 3 ½, but rather add juice to the favorite and keep a 4-point differential into play. The over/under market is showing some 52 ½, but as long as we are taking more on the 'over' we won't look to drop the total."

The Saints are listed as 3 ½-point favorites in most spots, with the total set at 53. The game kicks off at 6:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on FOX.