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**larryonion** · 01-17-2010, 12:29 PM

good luck bum

**Dat Boi E** · 01-17-2010, 12:31 PM

good luck today, Bum!

**jt4545** · 01-17-2010, 12:45 PM

Good luck

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2010, 01:08 PM

Are the Jets ready for San Diego?

Before the playoffs even started, Jets head coach Rex Ryan stated that he believed his team should be favored to win the Super Bowl this season. His squad will get a chance to gain a few more believers this Sunday at 4:30 p.m. EST on CBS when New York (10-7 straight up, against the spread) heads to Southern California to face the Chargers.

The Jets are certainly backing up their coach’s big words after picking up their second straight win over Cincinnati as 2 ½-point road pups last Saturday, 24-14. The win improved Gang Green to 4-2 SU and ATS when posted as road underdogs this season.

New York moved onto the second round of the postseason on the legs of rookie running back Shonn Greene. The first-year rusher from Iowa racked up 135 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Greene has seen his number called a lot more often in the later stages of the season as he’s gained 292 yards on 50 carries over the last three weeks.

Greene, along with Thomas Jones, have helped the Jets field the No. 1 rushing attack in the NFL. They averaged 172.2 rushing yards per game during the regular season. The closest playoff qualifier to them is the Ravens, who are fifth overall at 137.5 YPG.

Mark Sanchez came away with a relatively mistake-free performance, completing 12 of his 15 passes for 182 yards and a score. Perhaps most important is the fact that he didn’t get sacked once by the Bengals last Saturday. There is no doubt that offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is reigning in the rookie signal caller to keep him from screwing up.

Even if Sanchez does wind up dropping a deuce on the field, Ryan has football’s best defense at his disposal. The Jets are eighth against the run (98.6 YPG) and No. 1 defending the pass (153.7 YPG). They also have amassed 31 takeaways (17 interceptions, 14 fumbles) during the regular season. The Jets even picked up a fumble and pick against Cincy last week, translating into seven points.

New York’s top defender is cornerback Darrelle Revis. The third-year defender out of Pittsburgh has picked off six passes for 121 yards and a touchdown. Revis also leads the NFL with 37 passes defended.

As good as Revis has been this season, he is still just one man. How does the rest of the team fare this weekend? “Darrelle Revis certainly deserves the credit he is receiving but the rest of the defense for the Jets will be seriously tested this week with San Diego’s (13-3 SU, 8-8 ATS) depth in pass catchers,” says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Joe Nelson.

”Vincent Jackson is the biggest deep threat and Revis will likely limit some of his big play potential but 6'5" Malcolm Floyd really emerged in the second half of the season and allowed the team to part ways with veteran Chris Chambers.” Nelson concludes, “Legedu Naanee also has made some big catches and the running backs are also threats out of the backfield in the passing game. The biggest concern has to be Antonio Gates, however, as he enters the playoffs healthy, seemingly for the first time.”

Nelson is spot on about Gates. The Kent State product is 16th in the NFL with 79 receptions, picking up 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns. Gates was also the top tight end to move the chains with 77.2 percent of his receptions resulting in a first down.

Jackson has proven to be San Diego’s best deep threat for the year with nine scores and rests in the Top 10 with 17 catches for at least 20 yards. He’ll no doubt be the man that Revis will be marking on Sunday.

Regardless of who is making the catches, odds are pretty damn good that Philip Rivers will find the open target. Rivers has completed 65 percent of his passes for 4,254 yards with 28 touchdowns to nine interceptions. He is also third-most efficient quarterback in the NFL with a QB rating of 104.4.

San Diego also has a potent running game with LaDainian Tomlinson in the backfield. Tomlinson has rushed for 730 yards and 12 touchdowns. While the scores are comparable to last season (11 TD in 2008), his yardage is way down from the 1,110 yards gained on the ground in 2008. That’s mainly because the Bolts are passing team that uses running backs as safety valves. Darren Sproles is a perfect example of this with 343 rushing yards and three scores to go along with 497 receiving yards and another four touchdowns.

We have a pretty good idea that the Chargers are good on the attack, but they’re no slouches on stopping the opposition. San Diego is 20th against the run (117.8) and 11th in defending the skies (209.2).

The teams might seem like they could be pretty even, but the sportsbooks beg to differ. Most outlets are pushing the Bolts as seven-point home favorites with a total of 42. Gamblers can back the Jets for the outright upset at plus-250 (risk $100 to win $250).

According to Sportsbook.com, bettors are falling over themselves to play on New York. The public has put 87 percent of its money on the Jets to win outright. Meanwhile, Gang Green is fielding 59 percent of the cash there to cover the spread. It almost goes without saying that this game is picked up the betting public’s attention.

Bodog’s sportsbook manager Richard Gardner sums it up best, “This game is already seeing the most handle early even though it will be the fourth game played.”

Gardner’s unit has listed San Diego as an eight-point home “chalk” with a total of 42 at the time of publication.

“The Jets-Chargers game is an interesting one for the books as San Diego was the hottest team at the end of the season and were continually being bet heavily regardless of the line and opponent. The Jets on the other hand were bet heavy in Week 17 but the book actually needed them to cover the number in last week’s playoff game, although the Jets have far and away seen the most action on future bets after Coach Ryan's bold statements.” Gardner adds, “So obviously we take both factors in but we look more at the power ratings and how the teams will match up when setting the line. The Chargers well balanced offense has the ability to take an early lead and force the game in to the hands of Mark Sanchez which as a book we still treat as a wild card factor.”

One factor gamblers should keep in mind is the fact that San Diego has gone 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS this season at Qualcomm Stadium. The ‘over’ posted a promising 6-2 mark as well.

After last week’s win, the Jets are 6-3 SU and ATS away from the Meadowlands in 2009. If you look at their mark as road pups over the past two years and you’ll see that they are also 6-3 SU and ATS. The ‘over’ has gone 6-2-1 in that stretch.

What could prove problematic is the fact that New York is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS when posted as a road underdog against a team coming off of a bye.

If there is one thing that we can say about the Bolts is that they haven’t been the strongest team coming off of an open date. San Diego has gone 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS as a home fave after a bye since 1995. If you’re just looking since Marty Schottenheimer’s last year in 2006, then the Chargers are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in that run.

The recent head-to-head meetings are trending heavy towards the Jets as they’re 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven matches. The ‘over’ has posted a small advantage at 4-3 in that time.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2010, 01:09 PM

Cowboys, Vikes set for battle

Debates are always going to be part of our lives. “Ginger vs. Mary Ann,” “Great Taste vs. Less Filling” and “Kirk vs. Picard” have permeated through every level of conversation amongst the general public. The current debate now is to find out if it is better to have a week off after the regular season or keep momentum going by playing in the Wild Card round.

We’re going to see which side of that last argument will have more ammo on Sunday as the Cowboys head to the Metrodome to face Minnesota (12-4 straight up, 9-6-1 against the spread) at 1:00 p.m. EST on FOX.

Dallas (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) is coming into this weekend’s showdown after dumping the Eagles as a four-point home “chalk” 34-14 on Jan. 9. It was the final “bugger off” the Cowboys could do to Philadelphia as they’ve won all three meetings this season – the 13th time that has happened in NFL history.

When you look at the stats from last week’s game, they’re close in terms of total yardage with Dallas winning that battle 426-340. But the Eagles were held to just 56 rushing yards, which brings them up to 93 yards over the last two weeks.

Tony Romo had another solid outing against Philly, completing 23 of his 35 passes for 244 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s been very good over the last four games with a 66.7 completion percentage, 288.3 passing yards per game, six scores and two interceptions.

Romo was able to ration the aerial assault effectively with five receivers having at least 27 yards last Saturday. Miles Austin showed his worth once more with 82 yards and a touchdown on seven catches. Roy Williams even looked good with five receptions for 59 yards.

Dallas was also able to pick up 198 rushing yards against the Eagles. Felix Jones proved to be a force to be reckoned with, gaining 148 yards and a score on 16 carries last Saturday.

The Cowboys’ defense had no problems pushing around the running game as previously mentioned. That play kept Philadelphia to converting only two of its 11 third downs in the Wild Card round. Dallas should be considered with the fact that they allowed 284 yards through the air.

Dallas’ stoppers will need to be on top of its game because the Vikings have one of the more dominant offenses in the NFL.

The Vikes were already a playoff team entering this season with Tavaris Jackson under center. That was before they got America’s favorite flip-flopper Brett Favre into a purple jersey.

Favre has dramatically improved the offense in his first year in Minnesota. Last season, the Vikings were gaining 330.5 YPG with 184.8 YPG come through the air. With John Madden’s muse under center, they’re fifth in the league with 379.5 YPG and 184.8 passing YPG.

That increase helped Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin become Pro Bowlers. Rice is picking up 15.8 yards per reception this season, taking eight of them to the house in his best year to date. Harvin has enjoyed a great rookie campaign with 790 receiving yards and six scores. Also, Visanthe Shiancoe has proven to be one of the NFL’s top tight ends with 56 catches for 566 yards and a team high 11 touchdowns.

Harvin earned his stripes this year as a kick returner by bringing back 42 kickoffs and punts for 1,156 yards, scoring twice. Only two returners had a better average yardage per return than Harvin’s 27.5 YPR.

When you have an offense throwing the ball around with success, the running game would understandably take a tumble. Minnesota is picking up just 119.9 YPG on the ground in 2009 to rank 13th overall. Last year, they were gaining 145.8 rushing YPG to rank fifth.

The funny thing about those numbers is that fans don’t give a damn because Adrian Peterson doesn’t let you focus on them. Peterson picked up 1,383 yards this season, which is down from the league leading 1,760 yards he picked up on the ground in 2008. But he’s found the end zone 18 times in his sophomore campaign; Peterson had just 10 touchdowns in ’08.

It also doesn’t hurt that the Vikings have one of the NFL’s top defenses. This unit is in the Top 10 in points allowed (19.5), rushing defense (87.1) and total yards (305.5). They also lead the league with 48 sacks. Minnesota’s resident redneck Jared Allen has accumulated 14.5 sacks this year to rank second only to Denver’s Elvis Dumervil. Allen has already brought Romo down twice in his career with five solo tackles against the Cowboys.

Given how closely these teams match up, the sportsbooks have made the line just as close with Minnesota listed as a 2 ½-point home favorite with a total of 45 ½. Bettors can back the Cowboys to win outright for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

“This line wasn't hard to make. We knew going in that no matter what, versus the Cowboys... the Vikings were going to be the home favorite and never by more than three-points,” says betED’s sportsbook manager Randy Scott. “And now because Dallas is running red hot right now that automatic -3 for the home team isn't going to surface, instead it's -2 ½. Some books have added extra juice on the -2 ½ (-115).”

“The action we are getting right now is pretty much two-way. There is a lot of buying points on both sides of this line as well as teasing the number both ways,” concludes Scott.

If we’re looking at just amount of money on a particular side, then Dallas is king. According to Sportsbook.com, 86 percent of the cash on the money line is backing the ‘Boys. They’re also hold a 55 percent majority on covering the spread.

Bettors are no doubt paying attention to Dallas being on a 3-0 SU and ATS run against the Vikes. The most recent meeting coming in the preseason with the Cowboys winning as three-point road pups 35-31.

What those gamblers may not be aware of the fact that the Vikings boast a perfect 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS mark (14-1 SU, 8-6-1 ATS in last two seasons) at home in 2009. Of course, gambler may not want to lay $140 to take them to win outright.

When you factor Minnesota as a home “chalk” coming off of a bye, then they are 9-0 SU and 5-3-1 ATS. The ‘over’ is also 7-2 during those matches as well.

Dallas has done fairly well on the road this season by going 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. The ‘over’ went 5-3 as well. As road pups over the last five years, however, the Cowboys are just 7-9 SU and 9-7 ATS.

What backers of the Cowboys have to be hopeful about is the fact that they are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS when listed as road underdogs against a team coming off of an open date.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2010, 01:11 PM

Sunday Tip Sheet

It’s a relatively quiet day in college hoops where the Top 25 are concerned with just three games showcasing them on Sunday. Two of those contests will be on television. Let’s take a quick look at those contests we can sweat on the comfort of our own couches.

Connecticut at Michigan – 1:30 p.m. EST, CBS

The Huskies are desperately trying to show that they are a good team. The only problem for them is that they have yet to show that they can beat the best competition this season. Connecticut (11-5 straight up, 5-8-1 against the spread) has gone 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.

UConn has suffered two straight losses on the road to the Hoyas and at home against the Panthers. The most troubling problem for Jim Calhoun is the fact that his club was fairly light on the boards. The Huskies lost the rebounding battle 36-31, but their Big 3 players (Stanley Robinson, Jerome Dyson and Kemba Walker) accounted for 10 boards – only two of those were off of offensive glass.

Michigan (9-8 SU, 5-8 ATS) seems to be gaining its footing in league play with three wins in its last four games. The Wolverines enjoyed DeShawn Sims scoring 20 points and getting 21 points out of Manny Harris for a 69-45 beating of Indiana as 14-point home favorites.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants initially opened the line for this game with the Huskies as two-point road favorites.

That line is a far cry from the 16 ½-points UConn was favored by at home against the Wolverines last year. Yet Michigan got 20 points from Stu Douglas and 15 points from Harries to easily cover in a 69-61 decision.

Connecticut hasn’t been all that great away from Storrs this year, going 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in road and neutral affairs. The ‘under’ is 3-2 in those matches, but the ‘over’ has hit in two straight road outings.

The Huskies have at least performed well against Big Ten competition, as evidenced by a 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS mark since 2004. The last game they played, however, was against Michigan State in the Final Four. UConn lost that game as a 4 ½-point “chalk,” 82-73.

Michigan has enjoyed good success at home this year with a 7-2 SU mark. Bettors haven’t had a great time backing them as they’re just 2-3 ATS in five games that were on the board.

When facing Big East foes, the Wolverines are skating by with a 4-4 SU record. Gamblers, however, have taken notice to fade them as they’re 2-5 ATS.

John Beilein’s club has gone 5-3 SU and ATS when posted as a home pup since 2006.

Wake Forest at Duke – 8:00 p.m. EST, Fox Sports Net

Wake Forest (12-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) may not be getting a lot of attention, but they are keeping themselves relevant. The Demon Deacons have gone 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS in their last nine games after dropping two straight to start December.

The Deacons appear to have found the guy that is willing to take that last shot in Ishmael Smith. The senior guard made the game-winning jumper that propelled Wake to a 85-83 win against the Terrapins in overtime. Unfortunately for gamblers, the Deacs didn’t cover the number as 3 ½-point home faves.

Smith will no doubt get plenty of chances to drain buzzer-beaters with Wake Forest having final margins of no more than four-points in its last four contests.

Duke (15-2 SU, 10-5 ATS) isn’t about to say that they know how to win in every situation, but last Wednesday’s 79-59 win over the Eagles was might make them want to do so. The Blue Devils lived and died by the three-pointer last season. Against Boston College, however, they had to figure out how to overcome hitting just one shot beyond the arch. They muscled their way to a 40-25 rebound victory against BC, with nine steals to boot.

LVSC has taken sides for this game by making the Blue Devils as 12 ½-point home favorites.

It’s not hard to see why the oddsmakers would set the line as they did given a little history.

Duke is a perfect 10-0 SU and 6-3 ATS in true home games this season. That certainly overshadows Wake Forest’s 4-2 SU and ATS record in road tilts. The ‘over’ is 5-4 in the Devils’ home dates, while the Deacons have seen the ‘under’ go 4-1 in road fixtures.

Wake Forest definitely isn’t helping itself out on the road in the Atlantic Coast Conference, going a paltry 5-12 SU and 9-8 ATS in league games on the road since 2007. The Blue Devils, on the other hand, is 17-2 SU and 10-7-2 ATS in home ACC tilts.

One thing to keep an eye for the gambler is the fact that the home team has gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The ‘over’ is 6-4 in that stretch.

**Wake Man** · 01-17-2010, 01:37 PM

Good Luck Bum!! The Duke/Wake game might be interesting, Think Duke is second in conf. with 3-point shooting off. and Wake is 1st in conf with 3-point shooting defense. None of the Wake players have ever won in Cameron and I expect that to continue tonight, but I do feel Wake will stay within the spread. (might be wishful thinking)

Good Luck on all your plays!!

**daveyd** · 01-17-2010, 01:38 PM

good luck today, with you on sdg

**Tnbreakers** · 01-17-2010, 02:15 PM

Gl Bum!

**tech fan** · 01-17-2010, 10:09 PM

i was on the wrong side also buddy

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2010, 10:23 PM

Another CHOKE JOB by the Chargers and Norv Turner.......

Rex Ryan was right.....maybe the Jets ought to be favored in all these games.........

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The Bum's Sunday's PODS + Playoff GOY !

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