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One big play for me on a card full of some big numbers. If the dogs are barking at you tonight, I certainly understand it, but a legend of the capping game taught me a few years ago: Maximize your understanding of the numbers behind the numbers, and minimize your selections, and that advice has changed my life, so tempted as I am by Ga Southern +16 and James Madison +10, I am going to be a one-trick pony tonight on the play that I like more than any other.
UNCGreensboro/WCarolina UNDER 145
Here is a numbers behind numbers stat for me:
UNCGreens points per game ON ROAD: 60.5
WCarolina points per game allowed AT HOME: 57.6
Even if we put UNCG on their average of 60 (accumulated mostly against softer defensive teams than WCar), that would allow for 84 points to the home side, and it still stays under.
WCarolina is coming off of a very bad loss to a lesser GaSouthern team, and the reason they lost is that they allowed a mediocre offensive team to shoot 54% from the field and a crazy 56% from 3 point (9/16). What do you guess Coach Hunter has been screaming at them about at practice all week? I don't think UNCG will sniff anything above 40%.
Bottom line: Western Carolina is a Southern conference power who has the ability to stifle opponents defensively. Against a team that has struggled mightily to score points on the road, I think this sets up to be a 10-20 victory for the home-side, and given the sort of score these averages suggest, an UNDER ought to follow.
UNCG/WC UNDER 145
Good luck.
UNCGreensboro/WCarolina UNDER 145
Here is a numbers behind numbers stat for me:
UNCGreens points per game ON ROAD: 60.5
WCarolina points per game allowed AT HOME: 57.6
Even if we put UNCG on their average of 60 (accumulated mostly against softer defensive teams than WCar), that would allow for 84 points to the home side, and it still stays under.
WCarolina is coming off of a very bad loss to a lesser GaSouthern team, and the reason they lost is that they allowed a mediocre offensive team to shoot 54% from the field and a crazy 56% from 3 point (9/16). What do you guess Coach Hunter has been screaming at them about at practice all week? I don't think UNCG will sniff anything above 40%.
Bottom line: Western Carolina is a Southern conference power who has the ability to stifle opponents defensively. Against a team that has struggled mightily to score points on the road, I think this sets up to be a 10-20 victory for the home-side, and given the sort of score these averages suggest, an UNDER ought to follow.
UNCG/WC UNDER 145
Good luck.
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