Announcement

**pm530** · 01-12-2010, 01:43 PM

NFL
Dunkel Index

Arizona at New Orleans
The Cardinals look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Arizona is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+7). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 16

Game 109-110: Arizona at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 134.110; New Orleans 135.929
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2; 55
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+7); Under

Game 111-112: Baltimore at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.997; Indianapolis 143.727
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6; 44
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6); Over

SUNDAY, JANUARY 17

Game 113-114: Dallas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 139.269; Minnesota 138.643
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over

Game 115-116: NY Jets at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 138.784; San Diego 146.708
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 8; 46
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+9); Over

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**pm530** · 01-12-2010, 01:44 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 16
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ARIZONA (11 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 3) - 1/16/2010, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (10 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (14 - 2) - 1/16/2010, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 17
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DALLAS (12 - 5) at MINNESOTA (12 - 4) - 1/17/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (10 - 7) at SAN DIEGO (13 - 3) - 1/17/2010, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**pm530** · 01-12-2010, 01:45 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Saturday, January 16th

NFC Divisional Playoff TV: FOX

Arizona at New Orleans, 4:30 ET

Arizona:
6-0 ATS as an underdog
13-2 ATS if 50+ points were scored last game

New Orleans:
11-25 ATS at home off loss by 10 or more
6-0 Under at home off ATS loss

AFC Divisional Playoff TV: CBS

Baltimore at Indianapolis, 8:15 ET

Baltimore:
31-15 ATS off a road win
12-4 ATS off an Over

Indianapolis:
4-12 ATS off BB losses by 10 or more
8-0 Under in Saturday games

Sunday, January 17th

NFC Divisional Playoff TV: FOX

Dallas at Minnesota, 1:00 ET

Dallas:
5-1 ATS off home division win
6-1 Under off division game

Minnesota:
17-5 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less
0-7 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards

AFC Divisional Playoff TV: CBS

NY Jets at San Diego, 4:40 ET

NY Jets:
21-9 Under off 3+ SU wins
3-10 ATS off BB wins by 10 or more

San Diego:
19-8 ATS off an Over
17-5 ATS off BB SU wins

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**pm530** · 01-12-2010, 02:19 PM

NFL

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 16

4:30 PM
ARIZONA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Arizona is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games
Arizona is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

8:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Sunday, January 17

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. MINNESOTA
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas

4:30 PM
NY JETS vs. SAN DIEGO
NY Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
San Diego is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets

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**pm530** · 01-14-2010, 10:32 PM

NFL

Saturday, January 16

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What bettors need to know:
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Cardinals at Saints

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-7, 57)

In the NFL divisional playoffs, the Cardinals and Saints meet in New Orleans for only the 11th time ever (Saints 6-4 straight up); the victor will face the winner of the Cowboys-Vikings on Jan. 24 for the NFC championship.

In a game perceived as a high-scoring affair, Arizona enters coming off a long, emotional playoff win only six days prior while New Orleans is well rested, clinching its spot in the postseason weeks ago.

Line movement

New Orleans opened as a 7-point favorite; the line has not moved whatsoever. The total opened at 56.5 and has increased only slightly by a half point.

The betting public is overwhelmingly favoring the Arizona money line (+240), which is being wagered almost 20 times more than the other side.

Significant injuries/suspensions

Cardinals wide receiver Anquan Boldin, who suffered both knee and ankle injuries, is a game-time decision according to coach Ken Whisenhunt. Boldin finished the regular season second on the team in receiving just behind Pro-Bowler Larry Fitzgerald.

On Tuesday, Boldin said he was “definitely” optimistic about playing against the Saints.

If Boldin isn’t able to go Saturday, Arizona appears to be in good shape without him. Since the start of last season, the Cardinals are 17-13 SU and averaging approximately 24 points per game with Boldin in the lineup and curiously 6-1 SU and averaging nearly 34 without him.

No dome-field advantage

The Louisiana Superdome has the reputation for being one of the loudest and most hostile environments in the NFL. However, the Saints are only 59-82 ATS (41.8 percent) at home since 1992, including 4-4 this year.

Maybe more telling, New Orleans has hosted five playoff games in its history, winning just two and covering only one.

The Cardinals have proven not to be intimidated when playing on the road or in an underdog role. Dating back to last season’s playoffs, Arizona is 8-2 SU and a perfect 10-0 ATS as an underdog, playing seven of the 10 games away from home.

Turnovers

New Orleans was second in the NFL in turnovers gained (39) and third in turnover margin (+11). Safety Darren Sharper leads the Saints with nine interceptions—three have been returned for touchdowns. His 376 interception return yards are a single-season NFL record.

"I've played against [Arizona quarterback] Kurt [Warner] a couple of times. I know what he likes to do," said Sharper.

Although it committed only one turnover in last week’s 51-45 victory over Green Bay, Arizona was next to last this season in turnover giveaways (36) and the only playoff team of the 12 with a negative-turnover margin.

Tuckered out team

The Cardinals’ stop unit, which ranked 20th in the league in total defense during the regular season, allowed 493 yards last week, including more than 300 passing in the second half alone.

Saints quarterback Drew Brees completed more than 70 percent of his passes this year for 4,388 yards and 34 touchdowns while his passer rating was the seventh highest in NFL history in a single season.

While Arizona is coming off a short week, Brees hasn’t appeared in a game since two days after Christmas. One cannot help to think that the Cardinals could be emotionally and physically spent, especially when facing a quarterback with the ability of Brees.

Key matchup

Warner was fourth in the NFL in passing rating this season when opposing defenses blitzed. More notably, he was sacked less than six percent of the time in these situations.

Spearheaded by Will Smith (13 sacks in ’09), Anthony Hargrove (five), and Bobby McCray (filling in for injured Charles Grant), the Saints, as they’ve done all season, will attempt to apply pressure on Warner.

If successful, New Orleans should force Warner into turning the ball over; however, he may instead be able to sit comfortably in the pocket, as he did against Green Bay, and pick the Saints apart.

Trends

Arizona is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games and the under is 11-6 in its 2009-10 season.

New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and the under is 7-2 in its last nine games.

Since the NFL shifted from a 10 to a 12-team playoff format in 2002, playoff teams coming off a bye are 7-9 SU and 4-12 ATS; the last four consecutive seasons, at least two of the four home teams in the divisional playoffs have lost.

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Ravens at Colts

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 44)

One of the league’s perennially prolific offenses faces one of the top defensive units of the last decade when the Indianapolis Colts host the Baltimore Ravens in a AFC playoff semifinal Saturday.

Line changes

The opening line of Indy -7 has gone down to -6.5 on most boards, while the total of 44 points has remained unchanged.

Welcome to Thunder Dome

Mother Nature will not be a factor inside the Colts’ Lucas Oil Stadium. As far as playing indoors goes, Indianapolis went 7-1 at home and didn’t play indoors on the road, while Baltimore’s lone game inside was a 33-31 loss at Minnesota on Oct. 18.

The Ravens are 0-4 inside the RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Stadium and have lost seven straight games to Indianapolis heading into the weekend.

"It's all about finishing against Indianapolis," Ravens receiver Mark Clayton told CBS. "Finishing means doing the little things and we haven't done that when we've played them. But just because we've lost to them before doesn't mean anything. We have great leadership and we're confident."

Run the ball, stop the run

If running the ball and stopping the run are the keys to postseason success, then the Colts are in trouble. Indy ranks dead last in rushing yards (80.9 per game) and is 25th in stopping the ground game, at 126.5.

"You've got to understand that in this offense you've got to pass first, run second. We know that," running back Joseph Addai told the Indianapolis Star. "I feel in the right situations we can run the ball."

If owning the ground is the key, Baltimore was made for this. The Ravens have the fifth-best rushing game in the NFL (137.9 per game) and the fifth-best rush defense (93.2). Against the Patriots, Baltimore totaled 234 yards rushing including scoring a 83-yard rushing touchdown on the first play from scrimmage.

"I was certainly watching the game on TV, and saw Rice's run," Colts quarterback Peyton Manning told the media. "You felt like that really sent a jolt through their team and their defense fed off that."

Peyton’s place

The Colts haven’t needed much of a run game with the second-best passing attack in the league (281.6), led by four-time MVP Peyton Manning, who threw for 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns. Indianapolis still hasn’t lost a game this season in which Manning wasn’t pulled.

Wideout Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark each caught 100 passes this year. Baltimore has been trying to get aging linebacker Ray Lewis, 34, off the field during passing downs. But the Colts will pass in any situation, which could open up some mismatches. That could mean a big day for Clark in the middle of the field.

Pass deficient

As usual, Baltimore is led by a punishing defense that ranked in the Top 10 in every major statistical category. And while the rushing game has been strong, led by the one-two punch of Ray Rice (1,339 yards, seven TD) and Willis McGahee (544 yds, 13 TD), the passing game, headed by quarterback Joe Flacco, ranks 18th (213.3 ypg).

In last week’s 33-14 win at New England, Flacco completed just four passes for 34 yards with an interception and finished with a quarterback rating of 10.0 (the Ravens rushed for 234 yards).

"I don't care. If we win, we win," Flacco told USA Today of his limited action versus New England. " … Quarterbacks like to throw the ball and do it that way, but it doesn't matter. … C'mon, we were up 24 points after the first quarter.

"You really think we're going to throw the ball 30 times? I don't think so."

Flacco has been nursing a sore hip and quadriceps, but insists it will not limit him Saturday and is not listed on the injury report.

First half the key?

Because of the different styles and strengths of the two teams, whichever team jumps out to a first-half lead could have a big edge.

While halftime trends are difficult to prove in regards to the Colts – they were 14-0 in games that the starters played throughout – they are clear in regards to the Ravens.

When Baltimore leads at halftime, it is 9-1. When the Ravens trail at halftime, they are 0-5. They’re 1-1 if the game is tied at the half.

Injury report

Baltimore’s stellar tight end, Todd Heap, was listed as questionable after suffering back spasms against New England Sunday. No other major players are listed on the injury report. Coach John Harbaugh indicated Heap would likely play, but would not be 100 percent.

Amazingly, Baltimore has 12 players who have been lost for the season. Six of those were knocked out in November or later. Staring tackle Jared Gaither (ankle) is expected to play.

Other notes

These two teams met in Baltimore Nov. 22, with Indy earning a 17-15 win. The Ravens’ points came on five field goals.

Indy is 0-3 in playoff games following a bye week.

Trends

Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in its last nine playoff road games.

The under is 6-2 in Baltimore’s last nine games against AFC opponents and the under is 6-2 in Indianapolis’ last eight playoff games.

Indy is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games.

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**Udog** · 01-15-2010, 11:29 PM

NFL

Saturday, January 16

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Total bias: NFL Divisional Playoffs over/under plays
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Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 44)

I’ve been called many things in my 26 years.

I’ve been called crazy, I’ve been called an idiot and I’ve been called nuts.

This weekend, simply call me “Wacko for Flacco.”

That’s right. I am firmly behind the underdog Ravens and their ability to push the final score spiraling past the over this week when they travel to Indiana to face the Colts.

Sure, some people want to point out that Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco is a product of a ball-control attack that masked a hideous performance in a 33-14 win at New England – going 4-for-10 for 34 yards and an interception, a record-tying performance for fewest yards in a postseason victory.

But let me point out why it’s actually those naysayers who are the crazy ones.

Flacco has led a balanced Baltimore attack to at least 20 points in the team’s past four games, including a 33-point outburst last week despite nursing a contusion on his right leg. The sophomore signal caller also is 3-1 all-time in the postseason with all victories coming on the road.

During the regular season, this above-average Joe completed 63 percent of his passes for 3,613 yards with 21 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. Behind the former Delaware standout, the Ravens offense averaged more than 24 points and 351 yards per game.

And Baltimore needs Flacco to show that he has mastered the controls behind the Baltimore attack. In the previous six meetings between the teams, Baltimore has scored more than 10 points only once and is averaging a meager 10.1 points per game.

“The bottom line is we want to put points on the board, and it doesn’t matter if they’re long or short,” Flacco told the media. “I see where you’re coming from, but at the same time we just want to put points on the board.”

Meantime, the Indianapolis offense has had no problems finding the endzone this season.

The Colts are averaging 26 points and more than 361 yard per game entering Sunday’s tilt, despite resting the majority of the team’s starters each of the past two games. In the team’s past six contests, five have hit the over, including four straight overall.

So what’s the reason for the offensive surge? Try the man who owns a record four NFL MVPs, quarterback Peyton Manning.

The former Tennessee star has been outstanding once again, throwing for 4,500 yards with 33 touchdowns against 16 interceptions. Even more impressive, he has posted those same great numbers with one of his most mediocre supporting casts since his rookie year.

With no Marvin Harrison running comebacks and curls, Manning has elevated the play of receivers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon and eased the transition of rookie running back Donald Brown.

“That's the main thing: don't go out there and look like you haven't played the game in six months,” Reggie Wayne, the Colts four-time Pro Bowl receiver told Colts.com. “As long as you can go out there and play football, play all four quarters, somewhere in there you'll have an opportunity to win the game.”

And all four quarters were unkind to under players last week. Entering last weekend, the under went 8-4 against the total the past three years. But on Saturday and Sunday, each game took its turn passing the number for a staggering 4-0 over/under mark.

The Ravens and Colts also both tout opportunistic defenses that love to give their offenses short fields to work with, but Flacco and Manning have a wealth of experience against the best players in the league on defense.

The difference in this game will be that Flacco finally has matured enough to give the Ravens offense yet another boost in a close game. It might not be enough to help the birds soar to a second straight AFC title game, but it sure will be enough to put points on the board and keep up with Manning.

Pick: Over

Overall: 23-29

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**Udog** · 01-15-2010, 11:33 PM

NFL

Saturday, January 16

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Where the action is: Saturday’s Divisional round
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Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-7 -105, 57)

Opening Line: 7, 56.5

Where the early action is:

- Pointspread: 59 percent - Cardinals

- Moneyline: 90 percent – Cardinals

- Total: Split 50-50

- Teasers: 59 percent - Saints

Comments: The popular opinion here is Arizona can win this game outright. Cardinal backers looking for the best value are passing on the 7 points and betting the big underdog moneyline price (+245). The Saints haven’t looked good since Week 12 when they beat the Patriots 38-17 at home, but an argument could be made they were hampered by injuries at the time. Tight end Jeremy Shockey, receiver Lance Moore and running back Pierre Thomas were out down the stretch but are all expected to play Saturday.

The Cardinals surprised the betting world last week by beating the road-favored Packers 51-45 in what ended up being the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history. However, Arizona’s defense allowed the Packers to score 35 points in the last quarter and a half to force the overtime. The Cardinals are coming off just five days rest.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-6 -120, 44)

Opening Line: 6.5, 44

Where the early action is:

- Pointspread: 81 percent – Colts

- Moneyline: 90 percent - Ravens

- Total: 56 percent - Under

- Teasers: 71 percent - Colts

Comments: This line opened at 6.5 and all the early pointspread money went to the Ravens. Since dropping the line to 6, the money has shifted to the Colts. These two teams played a very close game back in Week 11 in Indianapolis where the Colts squeaked by 17-15.

The Ravens shocked the betting world last week by easily beating the Patriots 33-14. That convincing win brought on some early Ravens moneyline action but the majority of the action isn’t in yet and we expect to see it sway back towards the Colts.

Ravens’ All-Pro tight end Todd Heap suffered a back injury late in the game last week, however, he did practice Wednesday and Friday and is listed as probable to play. Also quarterback Joe Flacco played last week with a right hip contusion but looked “stiff and gimpy” during Tuesday’s practice. Flacco isn’t listed on any injury reports. The Ravens are also coming off just five days rest.

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**Udog** · 01-16-2010, 12:08 PM

NFL

Saturday, January 16

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Tips and Trends
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Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints [FOX | 4:30 PM ET]

Cardinals: Arizona comes off the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history. QB Kurt Warner has stated this is his last playoff run, and so far he's responded exceptionally well. Warner is 9-3 SU all time in the playoffs. Including the playoffs, the Cardinals are 11-6 SU and 10-7 ATS this year. The Cardinals are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS on the road this season. Arizona is an impressive 6-1 SU as the listed underdog this season, including a perfect ATS record of 7-0. The Cardinals have scored 30 PTS or more in 4 of their past 6 games. Warner threw for more than 3,750 YDS with 26 TDs against 14 INTs this season. RBs Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower are often overlooked, but they combined for over 1,375 rushing YDS with 15 TDS this year. Speaking of tandems, WR's Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin each had 1,000 receiving YDS this season. Defensively, Arizona has given up at least 24 PTS in 4 of their past 5 games.

Cardinals are 6-0 ATS last 6 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - WR Anquan Boldin (ankle) is questionable.
T Mike Gandy (hernia) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Saints (-7, O/U 57): While New Orleans is coming off their bye week, the Saints legitimately face more questions than the Cardinals do entering today. The Saints raced out to a 13-0 SU record before losing their final 3 games of the season. QB Drew Brees led an offense that was by far the best in the NFL with 31.9 PPG. However, this Saints offense was held to 17 PTS or fewer in each of their last 3 games. Brees threw for nearly 4,400 YDS while completing more than 70% of his passes this season. 4 different receivers had more than 500 YDS receiving this year, led my WR Marques Colston. Colston had nearly 1,075 receiving YDS with 9 TDs. In total, 8 different players caught multiple TD passes. The Saints lost their final 5 games ATS to finish at 8-8 ATS this year. New Orleans finished 4-4 ATS at home this season. New Orleans was 6-2 ATS as a single digit favorite this season.

Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - S Darren Sharper (knee) is probable.
CB Malcolm Jenkins (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts [CBS | 8:15 PM ET]

Ravens: Baltimore is starting to consider themselves a team of destiny. The Ravens had to win 3 of their final 4 games SU just to qualify for the playoffs. They dominated the Patriots in their Wild Card game to the tune of 33-14 on the road. Baltimore has used their running game to carry them of late, rushing for more than 1,000 YDS in their past 5 games on 5.5 YPC. RB Ray Rice had over 2,000 total YDS from scrimmage this year, with 1,339 coming on the ground. Rice and fellow RB Willis McGahee combined for 22 TDs this season. LB Ray Lewis defies age, as he is still the emotional leader of this Ravens defense. The Ravens have held 4 of their past 5 opponents to 14 PTS or fewer. The Ravens were 9-7 SU and 8-7-1 ATS this season. Including the playoffs, the Ravens are 4-4-1 ATS away from home this year. Baltimore is also 3-3-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season including their playoff game last week.

Ravens are 7-2 ATS last 9 playoff road games.
Over is 4-1 last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Key Injuries - T Jared Gaither (ankle) is probable.
TE Todd Heap (leg) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Colts (-6.5, O/U 44): The Colts had an impressive 14-2 SU record this season, but questions still remain about them. Most notably is the fact that this team hasn't played a meaningful game for nearly a month. The Colts and QB Peyton had to be happy to see the Ravens as their playoff opponent considering they've won 7 consecutive games against them. Manning threw for exactly 4,500 YDS this season, with 33 TDs against 16 INTs. The Colts had the 2nd best passing offense in the NFL, averaging 282 YPG this season. Along with their 14-2 SU record, the Colts were 10-5-1 ATS this season. Indianapolis was 7-1 SU and 3-4-1 ATS at home this year. The Colts were 7-2-1 ATS as a touchdown or less favorite this season. The Colts limited their opposition to only 19.2 PPG, the 8th best in the league. The Colts struggled with stopping the run, as they allowed nearly 127 rushing YPG this season.

Colts are 2-5 ATS last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Key Injuries - DE Keyunta Dawson (knee) is probable.
T Ryan Diem (elbow) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)

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**Udog** · 01-17-2010, 03:02 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 17

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What bettors need to know:
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Sunday, January 16

Cowboys at Vikings

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 44)

Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo led Dallas to its first postseason victory since 1996 last week. Up next? Future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC playoff semifinal on Sunday.

Line changes

The opening line of Minnesota -3 has gone down to -2.5, while the total of 46 also has dipped slightly to 45.5 with most books.

No home like Dome

The Vikings haven’t just been good at home this season – they have been virtually unbeatable. Minnesota is a sparkling, 8-0 SU and a solid 5-2-1 ATS in its own back yard this year. And a solid 14-1 SU and 8-6-1 ATS the past two seasons.

"As far as the success we've had at home, it's due to a bunch of things,” Minnesota center John Sullivan told the Star Tribune. “Crowd, comfort level, we have a good routine, especially playing Sunday noon games.”

But the Cowboys put up a fight on the road. Dallas is 5-3 SU and a respectable 4-4 ATS when it doesn’t sleep in its own beds the night before a game.

Under pressure

Any idiot knows that a quarterback facing a strong pass rush is more likely to commit costly turnovers than one who is able to have all day to find receivers. Don’t expect either Romo or Favre to have much time Sunday.

The Vikings have sacked opposing passers a league-high 48 times and have their rush led by stud defensive end Jared Allen, who is second in the league with 14.5 quarterback takedowns.

But Dallas also knows how to collapse the pocket.

The Cowboys led the league with 59 sacks last year and posted a solid 42 this season. The team is led by outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware, who has a team high-11 sacks.

"When we look at this team, the train of thought is, 'Hey, you got any tips for playing Dallas? Yeah, block [Spencer] and [Ware] and [Ratliff] first, and go on from there,'" Favre told the Associated Press. "Easier said than done."

Variety is the spice of life

Don’t expect the Vikings to be able to shut down Dallas’ attack by simply taking away tight end Jason Witten or stacking the line of scrimmage.

In four straight wins, Dallas has outscored opponents, 99-31. During that span, its 12 touchdowns have been scored by three running backs and five receivers. Romo’s ability to distribute the ball also has been a huge factor. The face of America’s Team completed 63.1 percent of his passes this season for 4,483 yards with 26 touchdowns against nine interceptions.

"It's problematic when all of the sudden you see Patrick Crayton catching balls on third down, then you see Tashard Choice getting a first down, then you see Roy (Williams)," Romo told the Associated Press. "It's tough, and that's part of what you try to do as an offense.”

Nowhere to run

This may come as a shock, but the Vikings have a very middling running game. The unit ranked a distant 12th during the regular season, averaging just 119.1 yards per game and just 4.1 yards per carry.

With a stud back like Adrian Peterson (1,389 yards, 18 TDs), this just can’t happen, especially against a Dallas defense that will be geared to attack the team’s passing game.

“Frankly, as offensive linemen, I don’t think we’ve given [Peterson] an opportunity to do that as much as he needs to do that the last couple of weeks,” Vikings left guard Steve Hutchinson told the Star Tribune. “We got a little bit back on track.”

Injury report

Dallas running back Marion Barber is probable to start against the Vikings despite aggravating a knee injury each of the past two weeks. He last just three carries last week and Felix Jones was a beast in his place, rushing for 148 yards and a score on 16 carries.

Other Notes

Dallas is 3-0 SU and ATS in the past three meetings against Minnesota.

Trends

Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its past five road playoff games.

The under is 8-2 in Dallas past 10 games overall and is 6-2 in the past eight Minnesota games as well.

Minnesota is just 2-3 ATS in its past five games overall.

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Jets at Chargers

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-7, 42)

Two of the hottest teams in football will be going head-to-head when the Jets visit the Chargers Sunday afternoon. Combined, they have won an unbelievable 17 of their last 18 games.

New York (10-7, 10-7 ATS) won its last two games to just barely snag a playoff spot, then went into Cincinnati and handled the Bengals 24-14 last weekend. The Jets have won six of their last seven.

San Diego (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS) started the season 2-3 but is currently riding an incredible 11-game winning streak.

Line movement

The Chargers opened as 8 or 9-point favorites at most betting sites, but the line has since descended to just a touchdown. The total opened at 42.5 and rarely wavered outside of one-point range between 41.5 and 42.5.

Weather or not

Sunny skies and calm wins should be the order of the day for this one. Weather will not be a factor.

Injury report

If the Jets are looking good on the field, the Chargers are looking even better. Same goes for the injury report.

Linebacker Bart Scott was New York’s only player who did not fully participate in Friday’s practice. Despite an ankle injury, Scott is still listed as probable. Quarterback Mark Sanchez, RB Thomas Jones, LB David Harris and DE Shaun Ellis are all good to go.

San Diego is not only the hottest team in football, but also arguably the healthiest. The Chargers list just one player—punter Mike Scifres—on their injury report. Scifres (groin) was a full participant in Friday’s practice and he has been upgraded from questionable to probable.

Charged up

San Diego is eager to reverse what has been a disappointing playoff trend. After winning 10 straight games to earn a first-round bye in 2006, the Chargers lost their playoff opener at home to New England.

One season later they were riding an eight-game winning streak before losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The Chargers managed to advance one round in last year’s playoffs, but after taking out Indianapolis, their five-game winning streak was halted by Pittsburgh.

If Shawne Merriman has anything to do with it, San Diego is not about to let the postseason pressure get in the way of yet another hot streak.

“We've been there before,” Merriman told reporters. “We've been the popular pick to win the Super Bowl before and haven't. Our whole mentality this year is completely different, in not looking too far ahead down the road. That's been the big key this year altogether, is not looking too far down the road.”

Merriman has the tough task of leading the Charger defense against a New York rushing attack that was No. 1 in the NFL in rushing, averaging 172.2 yards in 16 regular-season games.

A Rivers runs through it

Philip Rivers (317-for-486, 4254 yards, 28 TDs, nine INTs) is enjoying a second straight outstanding season, shredding defenses left and right. In his last eight games, he has thrown for 14 touchdowns and a mere three interceptions. The Chargers finished the regular season at No. 5 in the NFL in passing offense.

But something will have to give when San Diego and New York go head-to-head.
The Jets were the No. 1 overall defense this season (252.3 ypg) and tops against the pass as well (153.7 ypg). That is thanks in large to cornerback Darrelle Revis, who finished second in NFL Defensive Player of the Year voting and will go up against Chargers WR Vincent Jackson (68 rec., 1167 yds, nine TDs).

“I think they're the best defense we're going to play,” running back LaDanian Tomlinson told the media.

Trending topics

The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine outings as underdogs and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as road underdogs.

The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning SU records and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine overall. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff showdowns.

New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings between the two teams, but they have faced each other just once since 2005.

The over is 6-1-1 in the Jets’ last eight games against AFC competition. The over is 4-0 in the Chargers’last four against the AFC, 4-0 in their last five home outings, and 5-1 in their last six games overall.

San Diego (10-5-1 O/U) has been a strong over play this season, but the same cannot be said for New York (7-8-1 O/U).

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**Udog** · 01-17-2010, 03:06 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 17

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Where the action is: Sunday’s Divisional round
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Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5 -120, 45.5)

Opening Line: 3, 47

Where the early action is:

Point Spread: 69 percent - Vikings
Money Line: 65 percent – Cowboys
Total: 70 percent - Over
Teasers: 61 percent - Cowboys

Comments: Coming off four straight wins and only allowing an average of 7.75 points in those games, the Cowboys are running hot at the right time. Tony Romo completed 66.7 percent of his passes, had six touchdowns and carried a 100.0 QB rating during that winning streak.

The Vikings also finished off their regular season strong by beating the Giants at home 44-7 where Brett Favre went 25-of-31 for 316, four touchdowns and no interceptions.

The odds suggest this will be a close game with the home team only getting a slight edge, but the Vikings are undefeated at home this year. The total has been creeping down all week long, due to a combination of small money and market. We should see some over money and we’ll look to adjust the line back up quickly. There is only a slim chance the line gets bumped up to the key number 3 closer to game time.

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-7 -105, 42)

Opening Line: 7.5, 42.5

Where the early action is:

Point Spread: 54 percent – Chargers
Money Line: 91 percent - Jets
Total: 89 percent - Over
Teasers: 79 percent - Chargers

Comments: Huge test here for the Jets. There are a lot of analysts saying how well the Jets matchup against the Chargers. It’s the combination of the Jets No. 1 running offence versus the 20th-ranked Chargers rushing defense and the Jets No. 1 ranked passing defense vs. Chargers No. 5 ranked passing offense.

However, the Chargers are on an 11-game sizzle and have had an extra week to rest and prepare for this game. You can bet they know the ball is coming up the middle. Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez tossed up 20 interceptions this season and because of that, the Chargers game plan is to get Sanchez to throw as often as possible. This line won’t move off of the key number 7.

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**Udog** · 01-17-2010, 10:37 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 17

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Tips and Trends
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Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings [FOX | 1:00 PM ET]

Cowboys: Dallas is feeling pretty good about themselves after winning their 1st playoff game in 13 years last week. Dallas has won 4 straight games, with their offense playing a huge role in their success. Dallas has outscored their opponents 99-31 during their current winning streak. QB Tony Romo is doing a great job of getting the Cowboys in the end zone, as they've scored 12 TDs in their past 4 games. Gaining yards offensively hasn't been an issue this year, as the Cowboys finished the regular season 2nd in the NFL with 399 YPG. Romo threw for nearly 4,500 YDS this season with 27 TDs against 9 INTs. WR Miles Austin had a career year with 1,320 receiving YDS with 11 TDs this season. Dallas finished the season at 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS. Dallas was 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS away from home this season. The Cowboys were 2-0 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this year.

Cowboys are 1-4 ATS last 5 playoff road games.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - RB Marion Barber (knee) is probable.
T Marc Colombo (leg) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)

Vikings (-3, O/U 45.5): The Vikings finished the season at 12-4 SU, earning a bye thru the 1st round of the playoffs. That bye enabled this team to rest and get healthy, a welcome sight to QB Brett Favre and others. The rest was also notable for RB Adrian Peterson, as he was able to rest some nagging injuries. Peterson rushed for nearly 1,400 YDS this year, but hasn't had a 100 yard rushing game since Thanksgiving. The Vikings are 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS this season at home. Minnesota has won each of their past 5 home games by at least 17 PTS. The Vikings are 4-5 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Defensively, the Vikings finished 10th in the NFL allowing 19.5 PPG. They were 6th in the NFL in yards allowed, only allowing 305 YPG this year. The Vikings only allowed 87 rushing YPG, the 2nd best in the league. This Vikings defense is also capable of making the big play, as they led the NFL with 48 sacks this season.

Vikings are 0-4 ATS last 4 games as a favorite up to a field goal.
Under is 17-4 last 21 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Key Injuries - NT Pat Williams (elbow) is questionable.
TE Visanthe Shiancoe (quadricep) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers [CBS | 4:40 PM ET]

Jets: New York is looking for the same result they had the last time they visited San Diego in the playoffs. In 2005, the Jets beat San Diego in overtime in a complete stunner of a game. The Jets have won 6 of their past 7 games SU entering today. Including the playoffs, the Jets are 10-7 both SU and ATS this year. The Jets have had the same end result both SU and ATS in every game they've played this season. The Jets are 6-3 both SU and ATS on the road this year. New York was also 4-2 SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Jets win games with defense, as they have the overall #1 defense in the NFL. New York has held 7 straight opponents to 15 PTS or fewer. New York is 1st in the league in both PPG allowed and YPG allowed (14.8 and 252) respectively. Offensively, the Jets have the best rushing attack in the NFL at 173 YPG. This rushing attack led by RB Thomas Jones takes pressure off of rookie QB Mark Sanchez.

Jets are 9-3 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games in January.

Key Injuries - RB Thomas Jones (knee) is probable.
LB Bart Scott (ankle) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Chargers (-7, O/U 42): San Diego enters the playoffs as the hottest team in the NFL, as they have won 11 consecutive games ATS. The Chargers finished the regular season at 13-3 SU and 8-7-1 ATS. San Diego is 6-2 SU and 3-4-1 ATS at home this year. The Chargers were 4-3-1 as a single digit favorite this season. QB Philip Rivers has had an NFL MVP caliber type season, leading his offense to 28.4 PPG for the year. Rivers threw for more than 4,250 YDS with a completion percentage of 65%. Rivers also had 28 TDs to only 9 INTs this season with the 3rd best QB Rating in the NFL. Despite a prolific passing game, the Chargers only averaged 3.3 yards per rush this year which was the worst in the NFL. RB Ladainian Tomlinson was held under 1,000 rushing YDS this season for the 1st time in his career. Despite allowing teams to rush for nearly 120 YPG against them, the Chargers have had success in the past stopping the Jets running game.

Chargers are 4-1 ATS last 5 playoff games.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - DE Jacques Cesaire (elbow) is probable.
P Mike Scifres (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 01-17-2010, 10:41 AM

NFL
Write-Up

Sunday, January 17

Cowboys @ Vikings-- Dallas used win over 13-0 Saints in Superdome to shed December demons, then they beat Eagles twice in row- they've held their last four opponents to 10 for 46 on 3rd down conversions, with 15 sacks in those four wins. Last team to run for 100+ yards vs Pokes was Thanksgiving Day vs Raiders (124); only other team all year to run for more than 124 against Dallas was Tampa Bay (174) Opening Day. Vikings are 8-0 at home, with last five home wins all by 17+ points. NFC East road underdogs are 3-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC North home favorites are 6-8 out of division.

Jets @ Chargers-- Two road teams today playing best defense of anyone still in playoffs; Jets held last seven opponents to 15 or less points- they're 1-6 if they allow more than 15 points. Chargers won last 11 games- they didn't score less than 20 points all season. San Diego's last loss was October 19, when they gave up KR and PR for TDs in 34-23 loss to Denver. Interesting to see if the Chargers challenge Revis down field with taller WR Jackson. This is first time since October 25 Jets are playing on grass; they're 4-2 vs spread as underdog this season. Partly cloudy skies, 63 degrees expected at kickoff. Historically this has been the round for favorites; yesterday was no exception.

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NFL Trends and Indexes – Divisional Playoffs (January 16 – 17)

NFL Trends and Indexes – Divisional Playoffs (January 16 – 17)

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