Announcement

**pm530** · 12-31-2009, 05:30 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

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Sunday, January 3
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INDIANAPOLIS (14 - 1) at BUFFALO (5 - 10) - 1/3/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (13 - 2) at CAROLINA (7 - 8) - 1/3/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (7 - 8) at CLEVELAND (4 - 11) - 1/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (11 - 4) at DALLAS (10 - 5) - 1/3/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 68-46 ATS (+17.4 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 51-26 ATS (+22.4 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
DALLAS is 26-43 ATS (-21.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (6 - 9) at DETROIT (2 - 13) - 1/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CHICAGO is 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 5) at HOUSTON (8 - 7) - 1/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 72-45 ATS (+22.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (8 - 7) at MIAMI (7 - 8) - 1/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (8 - 7) at MINNESOTA (11 - 4) - 1/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY GIANTS are 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (10 - 5) at NY JETS (8 - 7) - 1/3/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as an underdog this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 8) at ST LOUIS (1 - 14) - 1/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 105-138 ATS (-46.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 105-138 ATS (-46.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 76-107 ATS (-41.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (8 - 7) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 12) - 1/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 5-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (10 - 5) at ARIZONA (10 - 5) - 1/3/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
ARIZONA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (3 - 12) at DENVER (8 - 7) - 1/3/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
DENVER is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (8 - 7) at OAKLAND (5 - 10) - 1/3/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-40 ATS (-25.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (4 - 11) at SAN DIEGO (12 - 3) - 1/3/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (7 - 8) at SEATTLE (5 - 10) - 1/3/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
SEATTLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**pm530** · 12-31-2009, 05:30 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, January 3

INDIANAPOLIS at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 11-24 ATS L2 wks of regular season
BUFFALO: 14-4 Under off loss by 21+ points

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 7-0 ATS off loss by 6pts or less
CAROLINA: 10-1 ATS playing with revenge

JACKSONVILLE at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 14-2 Under after allowing 175+ rushing yards
CLEVELAND: 7-1 ATS off ATS win

(TC) PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS, 4:15 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 30-11 ATS revenging loss by 7 pts or less
DALLAS: 6-1 Over off double-digit road win

CHICAGO at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
CHICAGO: 9-2 Over in January games
DETROIT: 1-5 ATS playing with revenge

NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 72-45 ATS as an underdog
HOUSTON: 8-2 Under L10 games

PITTSBURGH at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 3-7 ATS vs. conference
MIAMI: 10-2 ATS after a game with 50+ pass attempts

NY GIANTS at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 5-0 ATS off loss by 21+ points as home favorite
MINNESOTA: 1-5 ATS vs. NFC East

(TC) CINCINNATI at NY JETS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
CINCINNATI: 7-1 ATS as an underdog
NY JETS: 35-61 ATS at home off a road

SAN FRANCISCO at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 23-10 ATS vs. St. Louis
ST LOUIS: 3-14 ATS off a road loss

ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 0-7 ATS off BB SU wins
TAMPA BAY: 61-37 Under in games where the line is +3 to -3

GREEN BAY at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 12-3 ATS off cover as DD favorite
ARIZONA: 3-13 ATS at home off BB SU wins

KANSAS CITY at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 10-2 ATS as double digit underdog
DENVER: 0-6 ATS off road loss

BALTIMORE at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 13-4 ATS as favorite
OAKLAND: 1-5 ATS vs. Baltimore

WASHINGTON at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 2-8 ATS vs. AFC
SAN DIEGO: 17-5 ATS off BB SU wins

TENNESSEE at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 7-0 Over as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
SEATTLE: 0-8 ATS as an underdog

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

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**pm530** · 12-31-2009, 05:31 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 3

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. BUFFALO
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CLEVELAND
Jacksonville is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON
New England is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New England is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. MINNESOTA
NY Giants are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games on the road
NY Giants are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games on the road
Minnesota is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. MIAMI
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Miami
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games at home
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
BALTIMORE vs. OAKLAND
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Oakland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore

4:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ARIZONA
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games at home

4:15 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games

4:15 PM
TENNESSEE vs. SEATTLE
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

4:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. SAN DIEGO
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
San Diego is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games at home
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NY JETS
Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

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**Udog** · 12-31-2009, 09:46 PM

NFL

Week 17

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Total bias: NFL Week 17 over/under plays
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It seems like just last week players were reporting for training camp, but now Week 17 is here and smart players are looking to finish the regular season on a winning note.

And the best tip I can give isn’t to make a small play - it’s to make a giant one. On the Giants.

New York’s defensive lapse this season has thrust them to the forefront of the league as the strongest over play this season. Quietly, the Giants have amassed a stunning over/under record of 10-4-1. The more amazing part is the fact the team has done it despite having only two totals below 42.5 this season.

So why have so many Giants game smashed oddsmakers expectations? A suddenly explosive passing attack combined with a defense that can’t keep opposing teams out of the end zone.

The Giants offense typically relies on a strong rushing attack, but scored a mediocre 13 rushing scores this year and averaged just 4.2 yards per carry. The result has been a rather dynamic passing attack led by injured quarterback Eli Manning. The signal caller has completed 61.7 percent of his throws for 3,880 yards with a career-high 27 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

Receivers Steve Smith (1,163 yards, 7 TDS), Mario Manningham (822, 5) and rookie Hakeem Nicks (795, 6) have emerged as one of the most consistent trios in the league and are a huge reason why the offense is averaging 26.3 points per game - eighth-most in the NFL.

But with the way the team has played defense, it needs all the points it can get each week.

The defense is allowing just 312 yards per game, the ninth-fewest in the league. Opponents, however, are making the most of their chances against the G-Men, scoring 25.5 points per game, the fifth-most. The result is five of the team’s past six games going over the total.

One of the biggest reasons for the glut of points allowed by New York is the team’s penchant for turning the ball over. The Giants are 23rd in the league in turnover margin at minus-5 and have given the ball away a staggering 29 times. Fourteen of those giveaways have happened in the past six games alone, the same span that has seen nearly every game surpass the number.

In the final week of the regular season, be sure to go big or go home and make the Giant play.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-9, 48)

This one is simple: the Vikings have everything to play for and have been having a hell of a time stopping almost anyone on defense lately. If Jay Cutler can look like an MVP candidate against the Vikings, why can’t Eli Manning?

The Giants have nothing to play for, but even Tom Coughlin knows well enough a 9-7 season looks a lot better than an 8-8 season with the New York media. Plus, Minnesota needs to get its sporadic offense on track in time for the postseason and is playing to lock up a high seed.

At first glance this line seems a big high, but this one should devolve into a shootout quickly with lots of big plays, turnovers and points.

Pick: Over

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 47)

Those few bettors out there who still think the Eagles are one of the top over teams in the NFL haven’t been following the trends. The team’s 10-5 mark against the total is solid, but the birds have gone 4-4 in their past eight and don’t resemble the team that started the season by laying the smack down on inferior squads by huge margins.

Meantime, the Cowboys have a 6-9 over/under record, but more importantly, have seen the under hit in seven of their past eight games. Of the teams past four meetings in Texas, three have gone under the total.

Pick: Under

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (-8, 46)

Somewhere along the way, New England became one of the best under plays in the league. The team’s beleaguered defense still is only allowing an average of 16.7 points per game and the squad has posted an over/under record of 4-10-1 this season. There also is a good chance the Patriots, who have clinched a playoff spot, may rest some starters late in this game.

Houston, however, needs to win and get help to make the postseason. Don’t look for the Texans to pull any punches and to play just as hard as any other point of the season. The Texans, though, are also one of the league’s top under plays this year, posting a 4-10-1 mark against the total.

Expect this game to feature points – just not enough to pass the total.

Pick: Under

Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 21-27

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**Udog** · 01-01-2010, 10:15 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17

Philadelphia at Dallas
The Eagles look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games against teams with a winning home record. Philadelphia is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 3

Game 301-302: Indianapolis at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 134.750; Buffalo 131.424
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 9; 35
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+9); Over

Game 303-304: New Orleans at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.080; Carolina 143.175
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 9; 51
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 305-306: Jacksonville at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.394; Cleveland 131.633
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 5; 34
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); Under

Game 307-308: Philadelphia at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 139.168; Dallas 135.973
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over

Game 309-310: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 124.060; Detroit 119.533
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under

Game 311-312: New England at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.658; Houston 137.881
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: Houston by 9; 46
Dunkel Pick: New England (+9); Over

Game 313-314: Pittsburgh at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.599; Miami 134.289
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under

Game 315-316: NY Giants at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.992; Minnesota 143.093
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12; 47
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9); Under

Game 317-318: Cincinnati at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 129.580; NY Jets 141.784
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 12; 38
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 10; 35
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-10); Over

Game 319-320: San Francisco at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 131.642; St. Louis 122.205
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 9 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 7; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-7); Under

Game 321-322: Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 129.738; Tampa Bay 133.916
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+2 1/2); Under

Game 323-324: Green Bay at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.585; Arizona 135.891
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3 1/2); Over

Game 325-326: Kansas City at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 120.869; Denver 131.791
Dunkel Line: Denver by 11; 37
Vegas Line: Denver by 13; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+13); Under

Game 327-328: Baltimore at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 138.673; Oakland 125.806
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 13; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-10 1/2); Under

Game 329-330: Washington at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 134.443; San Diego 140.737
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3 1/2); Over

Game 331-332: Tennessee at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 132.665; Seattle 126.581
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 40
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-4); Under

**Udog** · 01-02-2010, 09:18 PM

NFL
Write-Up

Week 17 NFL games

Sunday, January 3

Colts (14-1) @ Bills (5-10)-- Indy blew perfect season last week by pulling its starters with 15-10 lead in 3rd quarter, so doubt they try too hard here, in the meaningless finale. Hideous weather in western NY has total down to 32.5; if you thought Curtis Painter was awful at home vs Jets last week, wait until you see him on frozen tundra. Bills lost six of last eight games. scoring three TDs on last 45 drives (22 3/outs)- they're 2-5 at home, beating Tampa/Miami. Buffalo is just 14 of last 66 on 3rd down, 2-4-1 vs the spread as an underdog. Nine of last 11 Buffalo games stayed under total. Key question is how long Manning plays; I'm thinking not too long.

Saints (13-2) @ Panthers (5-8)-- Brees is #3 QB here, so Saints are mailing it in since they already have home field wrapped up thru NFC playoffs; they're 7-0 on road, with three of last four road wins by five or less points. Carolina won three of last four games, allowing five TDs on last 55 drives- they're 18 of last 32 on 3rd down. Saints scored 45 offensive TDs, 17 FGs in first 11 games, but in last four, scored only 10 TDs with nine FGAs, so lot of people nervous on Bourbon Street. Panthers covered seven of last nine games, have turnover ratio of +12 in last four. Saints won first matchup 30-20 five weeks ago, but Carolina had 182 rushing yards. Under is 5-1 in last six games for both sides.

Jaguars (7-8) @ Browns (4-11)-- Cleveland won last three games, covered last six; they didn't allow offensive TD in last two home games (24 drives); they've run ball for 685 yards in last three games, good for cold weather. Jaguars lost four of last five games, covered two of last nine; they're 2-5 on road, allowing 18 TDs on last 56 road drives, nine in last 16 drives overall. Jags covered one of last six as an underdog. Cleveland scored five TDs, tried six FGs on last 23 drives, major improvement. AFC South road teams are 10-7 vs spread; AFC North home teams are 9-10. Under is 5-1 in Jags' last six games, 4-1 in Browns' last five home contests.

Eagles (11-4) @ Cowboys (10-5)-- Winner takes NFC East; if Giants upset Vikings, Eagles are playing for bye next week, while Dallas would need more help to get that bye if they win. Cowboys won first meeting 20-16, forcing Eagles to start five of 10 drives 80+ yards from end zone (13-tard edge in FP). Cowboys won five of last six home games (Giants/Chargers beat them at home this year); they're 5-0 allowing less than 17 points, 5-5 otherwise. Eagles won last six games, scoring 34.3 ppg in last three road games (10 TDs on their last 31 road drives)- they outscored last three opponents 70-27 in first half. NFC East home favorites are 0-6 against the spread in divisional games this year.

Bears (6-9) @ Lions (2-13)-- Huge trap game for Chicago after emotional OT win vs Vikings Monday night, just their second win in last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they crushed Lions 48-24 (-10) first meeting, outrushing Detroit 151-90, running kick back for TD (game was 21-21 at the half). Lions lost last five games, four by 10+ points; they're 2-5 at home, but 3-2 as a home underdog. Detroit scored only two offensive TDs on last 37 drives. Bears lost last five road games, scoring two TDs on last 41 road drives. Six of last seven Chicago games stayed under total. Favorites are 6-0 vs spread in Bears' road games. Home underdogs are 1-3 vs spread in NFC North games this season.

Patriots (10-5) @ Texans (8-7)-- Brady said to be playing, which means other Patriots will too, but game means little to Pats, while Houston still has outside shot at playoff spot and can have first-ever winning season. Both teams won last three games, Patriots by combined score of 107-28- they allowed only 3 TDs on last 29 drives. Houston averaged 9.4/9.2/8.8 yards/pass attempt in last three games, but they're just 3-4 at home. Patriots are just 1-5 in true away games, winning at Buffalo. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Texan games, 5-0 in Patriots' last five contests. AFC South home favorites are 7-11 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 8-6.

Steelers (8-7) @ Dolphins (7-8)-- Pitt won last four games by combined total of four points, after losing five games before that; they're 2-5 on road, beating Denver/Detroit. Steelers ran ball for average of just 62.8 yards/game last three weeks- they;ve become finesse team, un-Steerlike. Miami lost last two games by 3-7 points, getting outscored 44-9 in first half of those games, then falling short in comeback bids; they allowed 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in three of last four games. Over is 7-3-2 in last dozen Miami games, 3-1 in Steelers' last four contests. Underdog is 6-0-1 vs spread in Steelers' last seven games; Pitt needs win plus help to get into playoffs and defend their championship.

Giants (8-7) @ Vikings (11-4)-- Minnesota is playing for bye next week; New Jersey is playing for pride. Giants are 3-7 in last 10 games after 5-0 start; they allowed 20 TDs on last 61 drives, lost three of last four on road, with losses all by 20+ points. Vikings are 7-0 at home, 4-2-1 as home favorite; their last four home wins are all by 17+ points. Giants are minus-7 in turnovers in their last five games, turning it over 13 times, but still scored 31+ points in three of last four games. Last four Giant games went over; six of last seven Minnesota tilts stayed under. NFC North home favorites are 5-8 vs spread, NFC East away underdogs are 2-3 in non-divisional games.

Bengals (10-5) @ Jets (8-7)-- Win and in for Jets; game means very little for Bengals; gametime temp expected to be 18- Sanchez threw one TD, eight INTs in first two cold weather games (none of his 16 college starts were colder than 55 degrees). Bengals didn't have anyone named to Pro Bowl though- Jets had three or four guys. Just have feeling Cincinnati won't go in tank in rare chance to play on national TV and impress future voters. Jets won four of last five, but scored only seven TDs on last 68 drives; they ran ball for 181.3 yds/game in last four weeks. Bengals lost last five times they allowed more than 14; they are 6-1 vs spread as dog. Underdogs are 13-1 vs spread in Cincinnati games.

49ers (7-8) @ Rams (1-14)-- Singletary trying for non-losing season; St Louis benefits from a loss, clinching 1st pick in draft (Nebraska defensive stud Suh). 49ers won first meeting 35-0 in Week 4 (-9), holding Rams to 177 yards and nine FDs, but game was scoreless until fluke TD on muffed punt just before half. Home teams are 8-3 vs spread in NFC West games (home dogs 2-1). San Francisco changed kickers for this game; Niners lost last six road games (10 for 67 on 3rd down), with five losses by six or less points- they're 4-2-1 as a fave this season. Rams lost last seven games, are 5-3 vs spread in last eight; they covered three of last four home games, losing by 5-8-10-3. St Louis is 14-29 on 3rd down last two games, as 3rd-string QB Null is a slight improvement.

Falcons (8-7) @ Buccaneers (3-12)-- Atlanta win or tie clinches consecutive winning seasons for first time in 44-year history of franchise; Falcons allowed one TD on 23 drives in winning last two games (10-7/31-3); they're 2-5 away from home (beat 49ers/Jets). Atlanta won first meeting 20-17 (-12); Redman was sacked six times by Bucs. Good sign for Tampa; they won last couple of games, outscoring foes 38-0 in second half (were outscored 43-6 in first half of last three contests). Home teams just 4-6 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Last five Falcon games, last six Buc games all stayed under total. Bucs are 1-5 at home, with four losses by 13 or more points.

Packers (10-5) @ Cardinals (10-5)-- Arizona playing for bye if Minnesota gets upset by Giants; otherwise, its Leinart Time and glorified preseason game as Flynn expected to play for Packers. These teams could play each other again next weekend in playoffs. Green Bay won six of last seven games, losing only at Heinz when Big Ben passed for 503 yards; they've scored 22 TDs on last 68 drives, have to consider themselves playoff-ready. Pack is 4-3 on road, but best team they've beaten on road is Chicago. Redbirds won last three at home, scoring 31-30-31 points (11 TDs on last 35 home drives); they scored eight TDs in last nine red zone drives. Five of last six Green Bay tilts went under.

Chiefs (3-12) @ Broncos (8-7)-- Denver has internal issues, as Marshall and Scheffler benched in game that could still decide playoff spot; Broncos won first meeting 44-13 at Arrowhead in Week 13 (-4.5), running for 254 yards in game where Cassel averaged just 2.8 yards/pass attempt. Home teams are just 2-9 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Chiefs not ending season well, allowing 235 rushing yards/game in last four weeks; they've been outscored in second half of last five games 86-38 and have 13 giveaways in last five games. KC is 6-4 vs spread in last 10 games as underdog. Denver is 2-6 in last eight games, 4-3 SU at home, with only two wins by more than seven points.

Ravens (8-7) @ Raiders (5-11)-- Baltimore in playoffs with win; they're 1-5 in last six road games (won at Cleveland), but 6-3 vs spread as favorite. Ravens have six wins by 14+ points. Oakland is 5-1 vs spread in game following its last six losses, but seven of their last nine losses are by 14+ points. Raiders are 2-5 at home, with three losses by 20+ points- they've had 45 penalties for 376 yards in last four games. Seven of last nine Baltimore games stayed under total; three of last four Raider games went over. AFC North road favorites are 1-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West home dogs are 7-4. Baltimore has had more penalty yardage than its opponents in 11 of 15 games this season.

Redskins (4-11) @ Chargers (12-3)-- Game means nothing to San Diego, so Rivers will make cameo; Volek will play most of game. Redskins just played national TV games with rivals Giants/Cowboys, don't figure to have interest in this one, especially with franchise cleaning house next week. Washington was outscored 38-0 in first half of last two games, but they're 5-2 vs spread on the road, 4-1 as road dogs. Only once this year have Redskins lost by more than 6 points on road. Over is 7-2 in last nine Washington games, 4-1 in San Diego's last five games. NFC East road underdogs are 2-3 vs spread in non-divsional games. Chargers won last 10 games, covered six of last eight.

Titans (7-8) @ Seahawks (5-10)-- Tennessee can finish .500 after 0-6 disaster at start of season; they're also trying to get Johnson to 2,000 rushing yards and as far up record charts as possible. Three of last four Titan wins are by exactly three points- their last three games all went over total. Seattle was outscored in last three games by combined score of 106-24- they're 0-8 as underdog in '09, as favorites are 12-2 vs spread in Seattle games this season. Despite success in second half of season, Titans are still 2-5 on road (beat 49ers/Jets), 0-1 as road favorite. Effort or lack thereof is why I like Tennessee in this game; they'll be out to get Johnson some records. Seattle doesn't figure to resist much.

**Udog** · 01-02-2010, 09:29 PM

NFL

Sunday, January 3

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 17
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Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7)

Why Colts cover: They're 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. They're 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Donald Brown should see plenty of action and should run over Buffalo's NFL-worst run defense.

Why Bills cover: The Colts will rest most of their starters. Curtis Painter was terrible in place of Peyton Manning last week against the Jets.

Total (38): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Buffalo.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

Why Saints cover: They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Carolina. The road team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings. Carolina's only offensive threat through the air is Steve Smith and he is out with a broken forearm. DeAngelo Williams is doubtful to play again this week.

Why Panthers cover: They've won six of the last eight meetings. Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. New Orleans will likely rest some of their starters. Matt Moore (7 TDs, 2 INTs) is playing for a chance to be the starter next season and has looked good in place of Jake Delhomme.

Total (N/A): Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and 6-0 in the last six meetings in Carolina.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Why Jaguars cover: Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Maurice Jones-Drew gets to face the league's 28th-ranked rush defense. Derek Anderson (3 TDs, 9 INTs) continues to struggle as the starting quarterback for Cleveland.

Why Browns cover: They're 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Jacksonville's defense has been a major disappointment this season. Jerome Harrison has flourished as the team's featured back in the last two weeks. He has rushed for 434 yards and four touchdowns wile auditioning to be next year's go-to guy.

Total (38.5): Under is 4-1 in Browns last five home games and 8-2 in Jaguars last 10 road games.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3)

Why Bears cover: They've won seven of the last nine meetings. Lions are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games and 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Daunte Culpepper, who has been horrible this season, is likely to start at quarterback for Detroit.

Why Lions cover: The underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings of this series. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman may miss the game due to a rib injury.

Total (45): Over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings of this matchup.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (-9)

Why Patriots cover: They've won both previous meetings. Houston struggles against some of the better offensive teams and has a history of blowing leads late in games. Pats can still clinch the No. 3 seed in the AFC. Tom Brady is expected to play the whole game.

Why Texans cover: They're 5-2-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. New England is expected to rest some of its starters. They need a win to have a chance at a playoff spot.

Total (46): Under is 7-1 in Patriots last eight road games and 5-0-1 in their last six games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+3)

Why Steelers cover: They've won four of the past five meetings and need to win to keep playoff hopes alive. Pittsburgh's stingy rush defense could make it hard for the Dolphins to run the ball which is their best offensive strength.

Why Dolphins cover: They're 4-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record. The Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. Hines Ward is battling hamstrung injuries and may not play. Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 47 times this year and could have trouble with Miami's pass rush.

Total (45): Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings of this series and 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Miami.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-9)

Why Giants cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Minnesota. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. The road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings. Minnesota cornerback Antoine Winfield is dealing with a foot injury and might not play. Adrian Peterson hasn't rushed for over 100 yards in six games and the Vikings have struggled because of their lack of offensive balance.

Why Vikings cover: They've won the last three meetings. They're 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games. Brandon Jacobs is out with a knee injury and Ahmad Bradshaw is questionable. The Giants were humiliated in last week's 41-9 loss to Carolina as 9-point faves and might have packed it in mentally, especially with nothing left to play for.

Total (48): Under is 4-0 in Vikings last four home games and 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+7)

Why 49ers cover: They're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in St. Louis. They can notch their first non-losing season since 2002 with a win. Alex Smith is trying to prove he is the franchise quarterback they expected when they took him No. 1 overall in the 2005 draft.

Why Rams cover: The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings of this series. Steven Jackson could return from his back injury and wants to finish the season on a high note.

Total (40.5): Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in St. Louis.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1)

Why Falcons cover: The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. They are looking for back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in team history. The Buccaneers defense is vulnerable and Matt Ryan could pick it apart.

Why Buccaneers cover: The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings. Atlanta will be without Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner. They are coming off back-to-back wins and gaining confidence with nothing to lose.

Total (41.5): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings of this series.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

Why Packers cover: They've won five of the past six meetings in this series and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Coach Mike McCarthy plans on playing his starters in an attempt to win the game.

Why Cardinals cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall. Coach Ken Whisenhunt said it is a game-time decision whether he will rest his starters or not because the Cardinals can still clinch the NFC's second seed with help. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked more than any other quarterback in the league.

Total (43.5): Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last six games.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-13)

Why Chiefs cover: The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the AFC and 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games. Denver's leading receiver Brandon Marshall will not play. Many players will want to finish strong while trying to land jobs for next season.

Why Broncos cover: They've won five of the last seven meetings. The home team is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings. The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in Denver. K.C.'s porous run defense will have problems stopping rookie running back Knowshon Moreno. They need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Total (38): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings of this series.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (+11)

Why Ravens cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Charlie Frye (49.2 rating) will start at quarterback for Oakland. Oakland's run defense is terrible and is likely to have difficulty containing Ray Rice. They can clinch a playoff birth with a victory.

Why Raiders cover: The home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Oakland has been playing teams tough over recent weeks as many players are vying to earn jobs next season. Joe Flacco has been sacked six times in his last two games as the Ravens offensive line struggles to protect him.

Total (38): Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.

Washington Redskins at San Diego Chargers (-4)

Why Redskins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. San Diego has nothing to play for in Week 17 and could rest some players. Jason Campbell is a free agent after this season and will be auditioning for another starting quarterback role in 2010.

Why Chargers cover: They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Washington's defense has been falling apart over recent weeks and even San Diego's reserves could give the Redskins a stiff test.

Total (39): Over is 4-1 in Redskins last five games and 4-1 in Chargers last five games.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (+4)

Why Titans cover: Seahawks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games. Chris Johnson is looking to set some new NFL rushing records and should have a good chance to do so against a bad Seattle defense. Matt Hasselbeck (2 TDs, 8 INTs) has not played well over the last two weeks and is suffering through the worst season of his career.

Why Seahawks cover: They've won five consecutive meetings in this series. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

Total (44): Under is 4-1 in Seahawks' last five home games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Why Eagles cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Why Cowboys cover: They're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 versus the NFC. Tony Romo is on fire. He has thrown for 1,548 yards, nine touchdowns and only two interceptions in his last five games. Dallas beat Philly 20-16 in Week 8 to cover as 3-point underdogs. Eagles center Jamaal Jackson is out with a knee injury.

Total (47): Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last eight games.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (-10)

Why Bengals cover: Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The Bengals can still clinch the No. 3 seed in the AFC. Chad Ochocinco will be looking for a big game after calling out Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis all week. Larry Johnson will get a chance to showcase himself for a team next season.

Why Jets cover: They've won six of the last seven meetings. They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Cincinnati is expected to rest some of its starters and the Jets can clinch a playoff berth with a win.

Total (35.5): Under is 4-1 in Bengals last five games and 4-1-1 in Jets last six games.

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**Udog** · 01-02-2010, 09:38 PM

NFL

Sunday, January 3

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Eye on the Skies: Week 17 Weather Report
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Week 17 of the NFL schedule is tough enough to cap without the weather having its say. Here’s an eye on the skies for the final Sunday of the regular season.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-9, 33)

At least Indy’s starters won’t have to play in this winter mess. The forecast for Orchard Park is calling for snow showers, 22-mph winds and game-time temperatures that will feel like it’s -5 inside Ralph Wilson Stadium. Books have already trimmed the total with all the Colts' weapons on the sidelines, setting the number at 33 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1, 36)

Ohio is getting similar weather, with game-time temperatures as low as three degrees. Winds are blowing at more than 20 mph out of the West, cutting the field in half. Snow is expected for Cleveland, putting the breaks on the warm-weather Jaguars and their star running back Maurice Jones-Drew. Books have also set this total at a cool 36 points, expecting the weather to slow down the offenses.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (+4, 45)

Staying focused in Qwest Field is hard enough with the die-hard Seahawks fans sitting on top of the play. Add to that some trademark Seattle showers and the Titans could have a tough time gaining ground with running back Chris Johnson and duel-threat QB Vince Young. Oddsmakers opened with the total at 43.5 but it has risen as high as 45 points. Bettors could see another move down before kickoff.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (-9.5, 35)

The Jets are fighting for their playoff lives at home in Week 17, as well as battling the elements. New Jersey is expected to get hit with some wet weather Sunday, with a mix of rain and snow forecast for the Medowlands. Temperatures will be in the low 20s but with a wind of over 20 mph ripping through Giants Stadium, it will feel more like nine degrees. Books have tagged another low total to this game with the Bengals starters taking a game off and the weather making things tricky for the offenses.

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**Udog** · 01-03-2010, 09:18 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 3

This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching “Cougar-Town”. Let’s take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.

Playoff Picture

• The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.

• The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik’s Cube is easier to figure out. As a public service here is here how it works out in the AFC if either the Ravens or Jets falter.

Real Life or Football

• Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager’s reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here’s the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they’ve been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.

Week 17 Angles

• Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)
• Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)
• In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland – Dallas- Arizona)
• In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland – Seattle –Note: these same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)
• Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants – Denver)
• Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans – Dallas)
• Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta –New England)
• The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.
• The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.
• The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.

Killer NFL Systems

• Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.
• Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.

Super Duper Trends

• Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.
• Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.
• Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.
• Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)
• The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.

Slippery Slope Situations

• The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.
• Cincinnati at New York Jets (See Sunday Night article)
• The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.
• Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division

**Udog** · 01-03-2010, 11:27 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 3

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Tips and Trends
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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys [FOX | 4:15 PM ET]

Eagles: Philadelphia is playing their best football of the season, having won 6 consecutive games SU in route to an 11-4 SU record. The Eagles are 5-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The Eagles are 1-2 ATS this season as the listed underdog. Philadelphia has scored at least 27 PTS over their last 5 games. For the entire season, the Eagles are 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 28.6 PPG. QB Donovan McNabb is looking to play better against Dallas, as he had his lowest QB rating of the season against the Cowboys in Week 9. WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin have combined for 112 receptions and 13 TDs this season. The young WR duo are gamebreakers, as they stretch out opposing defensive coverages. The Eagles have played good defense on the road, as only 2 of their 7 opponents have scored more than 20 PTS against them. The Eagles are 4th in the NFL in both INTs and sacks this season.

Eagles are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games as a road underdog up to a field goal.

Key Injuries - S Quintin Demps (ankle) is probable.
QB Michael Vick (quad) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)

Cowboys (-3, O/U 47): The NFC East title goes to the winner of this game today. The Cowboys have already beaten the Eagles SU this season as 3 point underdogs in Philadelphia. Dallas is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS at home this season. The Cowboys are 4-6 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. The Cowboys offense moves the ball up and down the field at will, averaging 394 YPG, which is 3rd most in the NFL. Unfortunately for them, 14 teams average more PPG than Dallas and their 22.5 PPG. QB Tony Romo has thrown for more than 4,150 YDS with 24 TDs against 8 INTs on the season. WR Miles Austin continues to be one of the best WRs in football, as he has at least 90 YDS receiving in 4 of his past 5 games with 4 TDs. The Cowboys defense is coming off a shutout of the Redskins and have only allowed 2 teams to score more than 21 PTS against them all season long.

Cowboys are 1-6 ATS last 7 games in January.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - S Pat Watkins (knee) is questionable.
T Marc Colombo (leg) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

New England Patriots at Houston Texans [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

Patriots: This game is absolutely meaningless for the Patriots, as they are locked in their playoff seeding since winning the AFC East last week. Because of this factor, the Patriots are likely to limit minutes to nearly all starters. The Patriots have won 3 straight games coming into today, limiting all 3 opponents to 10 PTS or fewer. New England has won only 1 true road game this season, going 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS on the season. This will be the 3rd time this season the Patriots have been the listed underdog, losing both games SU and not winning either game ATS. QB Tom Brady has thrown for more than 4,200 YDS with 28 TDs this season while completing better than 65% of his passes. WR Wes Welker has been arguably the best WR in football, with 122 receptions for 1,336 YDS, both of which rank him in the top 2 in the NFL. The Patriots defense is only allowing 16.7 PPG, which is the 3rd best in the NFL.

Patriots are 8-2 ATS last 10 games in Week 17.
Under is 7-1 last 8 road games.

Key Injuries - DT Vince Wilfork (elbow) is questionable.
T Nick Kaczur (head) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Texans (-8, O/U 46): Houston will come out extremely motivated today, as they have an outside chance of making the playoffs for the 1st time in franchise history with a win. The Texans have won 3 consecutive games SU to keep their playoff hopes alive. Houston has not played well at home, as they are only 3-4 SU and 2-4-1 ATS on the season. The Texans are only 3-5-1 as the listed favorite this year. QB Matt Schaub leads the entire NFL in passing yards with 4,467. His main target is WR Andre Johnson, who has caught an NFL high 1,504 receiving YDS making this duo the best pass catching duo in the game. This Texans offense averages nearly 380 YPG, which is the 5th most in the NFL. Defensively, the Texans are playing their best stretch of football as they've held 3 straight opponents to 20 PTS or less.

Texans are 14-5 ATS last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 10-2 last 12 games following a ATS win.

Key Injuries - RB Steve Slaton (neck) is out.
DB Eugene Wilson (toe) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (01/03/10)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (01/03/10)

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