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Been up most the night :
And got bored so I thought I would share some things with you , I again had a decent night going 10-4 on the units and stand at 16-6 & 4-2 (sides&totals) in NCAA basketball .
Capping this is one heck of a challenge because thier are potentially 327 teams that could see a line nightly , but this also means the oddsmakers have to set lines and keep-up with them .
The biggest advantage a capper has on the odds is he can pick and chose his poison on the games " he " wants to play , the house has to play them " all " . The soft lines are always there in this sport , one just has to look for them .
Its simply to much for the oddsmakers to keep up with at this time of the year ( NFL , NHL , NBA , NCAA foots , and now throw this in the mix ) and they rely on power rankings at first and hope the public is wrong. Thats we we come in , its imperative to take advantage of the smaller conferences and lesser known teams.
Central Mich. , Weber St. , UNC-Wilmington , Wisconsin-Milwaukee , Siena , Austin Peay , SW Missouri St. , Chareston , Marquette , Wisconsin where by far and away the best bets last year going 183-82 ATS for 69%. Its no coincidence that 9 of those teams reside in mid-major or lower conferences with only Wisconsin being from a major. When you look at the higher profile teams you get a sick stomach with thier outputs , Duke @ 10-19-2 ATS ( 235TH) , Maryland @ 11-17 ATS (217TH) , Cincinnati @ 10-17 (232nd) , Georgetown @ 12-17-1 ( 202th). One can clearly see that spotlight teams are not always the place for your money.
College hoops is like a revolving door , the players come and go quicker than ever now . So what do we do about it ?
Unlike football when a team loses one player it means it loses 20% of it production and likely to affect the play of the entire team , so what I emphasize is leadership and experience. Finding teams that are chauk full of seniors and juniors is rare , but finding them with experience is not !
Returning a decent core of players I submit the following :
Gonzaga , Mich. St. , St Joes , Ill.-Chicago , are all deep with players who have seen many minutes and return strong . But has anyone paid attention to a MAC sleeper that could win-out thier conference { Bowling Green } who won just 13 games last year but have two fifth year seniors and probably the most under-rated center in the country Kevin Netter , I think these guys sneek up on the bookies this year like Central Michigan did last year ( 24-7 ATS ).
Staying away from teams with a new coaching staff early has always been a peeve of mine . These young players are easily influenced and yet easily confused also , so with a new staff comes new complexity also ! The Tar-Heels in Matt Dohertys first season where a 67% ATS ( play against ) his first year , and Bill Self in his opening at Ill. went on to lose 5 of the first 8 and go 17-17 ATS.
Aside from Kansas , N.C. , Illinois , UCLA , watch Pitt. , Iowa St. , Penn St. , Washington St. who all have new coaches and could prove to be good early fades.
What Mid-Majors should we be looking at ?
U. Ill. Chicago - early dates with Evansville & Illinois
Akron - early dates with Cincinnati , N. Carolina
Manhatten - Syracuse ?
Pepperdine - early dates with Maryland , Dayton , Utah , Okla. St.
Florida St. - thats right , they will kick some booty this year ( a pointspread monster last year )
More to follow ( pups need me )
G.L.
***MMM***
:cool: :cool: :cool:
Capping this is one heck of a challenge because thier are potentially 327 teams that could see a line nightly , but this also means the oddsmakers have to set lines and keep-up with them .
The biggest advantage a capper has on the odds is he can pick and chose his poison on the games " he " wants to play , the house has to play them " all " . The soft lines are always there in this sport , one just has to look for them .
Its simply to much for the oddsmakers to keep up with at this time of the year ( NFL , NHL , NBA , NCAA foots , and now throw this in the mix ) and they rely on power rankings at first and hope the public is wrong. Thats we we come in , its imperative to take advantage of the smaller conferences and lesser known teams.
Central Mich. , Weber St. , UNC-Wilmington , Wisconsin-Milwaukee , Siena , Austin Peay , SW Missouri St. , Chareston , Marquette , Wisconsin where by far and away the best bets last year going 183-82 ATS for 69%. Its no coincidence that 9 of those teams reside in mid-major or lower conferences with only Wisconsin being from a major. When you look at the higher profile teams you get a sick stomach with thier outputs , Duke @ 10-19-2 ATS ( 235TH) , Maryland @ 11-17 ATS (217TH) , Cincinnati @ 10-17 (232nd) , Georgetown @ 12-17-1 ( 202th). One can clearly see that spotlight teams are not always the place for your money.
College hoops is like a revolving door , the players come and go quicker than ever now . So what do we do about it ?
Unlike football when a team loses one player it means it loses 20% of it production and likely to affect the play of the entire team , so what I emphasize is leadership and experience. Finding teams that are chauk full of seniors and juniors is rare , but finding them with experience is not !
Returning a decent core of players I submit the following :
Gonzaga , Mich. St. , St Joes , Ill.-Chicago , are all deep with players who have seen many minutes and return strong . But has anyone paid attention to a MAC sleeper that could win-out thier conference { Bowling Green } who won just 13 games last year but have two fifth year seniors and probably the most under-rated center in the country Kevin Netter , I think these guys sneek up on the bookies this year like Central Michigan did last year ( 24-7 ATS ).
Staying away from teams with a new coaching staff early has always been a peeve of mine . These young players are easily influenced and yet easily confused also , so with a new staff comes new complexity also ! The Tar-Heels in Matt Dohertys first season where a 67% ATS ( play against ) his first year , and Bill Self in his opening at Ill. went on to lose 5 of the first 8 and go 17-17 ATS.
Aside from Kansas , N.C. , Illinois , UCLA , watch Pitt. , Iowa St. , Penn St. , Washington St. who all have new coaches and could prove to be good early fades.
What Mid-Majors should we be looking at ?
U. Ill. Chicago - early dates with Evansville & Illinois
Akron - early dates with Cincinnati , N. Carolina
Manhatten - Syracuse ?
Pepperdine - early dates with Maryland , Dayton , Utah , Okla. St.
Florida St. - thats right , they will kick some booty this year ( a pointspread monster last year )
More to follow ( pups need me )
G.L.
***MMM***
:cool: :cool: :cool:
:cool:
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