Announcement

**Udog** · 12-23-2009, 09:48 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

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Friday, December 25

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SAN DIEGO (11 - 3) at TENNESSEE (7 - 7) - 12/25/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 27

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SEATTLE (5 - 9) at GREEN BAY (9 - 5) - 12/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
GREEN BAY is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 124-94 ATS (+20.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (5 - 9) at CLEVELAND (3 - 11) - 12/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 27-55 ATS (-33.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-31 ATS (-23.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-39 ATS (-23.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (3 - 11) at CINCINNATI (9 - 5) - 12/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 9) at ATLANTA (7 - 7) - 12/27/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (7 - 7) at MIAMI (7 - 7) - 12/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (6 - 8) at NY GIANTS (8 - 6) - 12/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 79-53 ATS (+20.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 12) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 1) - 12/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-41 ATS (-26.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (7 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 5) - 12/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (8 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 7) - 12/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
PITTSBURGH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (8 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 4) - 12/27/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (1 - 13) at ARIZONA (9 - 5) - 12/27/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 105-137 ATS (-45.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 105-137 ATS (-45.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 76-106 ATS (-40.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 5-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (2 - 12) at SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 8) - 12/27/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (7 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (14 - 0) - 12/27/2009, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (9 - 5) at WASHINGTON (4 - 10) - 12/27/2009, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DALLAS is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 28

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MINNESOTA (11 - 3) at CHICAGO (5 - 9) - 12/28/2009, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHICAGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-23-2009, 09:54 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 16

Friday, 12/25/2009

SAN DIEGO at TENNESSEE, 7:30 PM ET NFL
SAN DIEGO: 13-3 ATS vs. AFC South
TENNESSEE: 8-1 Under after a win by 6 or less points

Sunday, 12/27/2009

SEATTLE at GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 0-7 ATS as an underdog
GREEN BAY: 14-1 Over off 4+ ATS wins

OAKLAND at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 27-55 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
CLEVELAND: 7-0 ATS after scoring 30+ points last game

KANSAS CITY at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 20-4 Over off 3+ ATS losses
CINCINNATI: 0-6 ATS as a favorite

BUFFALO at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 8-2 Under L10 weeks
ATLANTA: 0-6 ATS off BB ATS wins

HOUSTON at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 15-5 ATS in 2nd of BB road games
MIAMI: 0-9 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points

CAROLINA at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 9-2 ATS in December
NY GIANTS: n/a

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 0-6 ATS off road game
NEW ORLEANS: 7-0 ATS off SU loss

JACKSONVILLE at NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 0-6 ATS off division loss
NEW ENGLAND: 22-10 ATS last 2 weeks of the regular season

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 5-1 Over vs. Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH: 3-10 ATS as favorite

DENVER at PHILADELPHIA, 4:15 PM ET
DENVER: 1-11 ATS off an Over
PHILADELPHIA: 11-3 Over off an Under

ST LOUIS at ARIZONA, 4:05 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 5-1 Over off ATS win
ARIZONA: 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

DETROIT at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:05 PM ET
DETROIT: 4-14 ATS Away vs. NFC West
SAN FRANCISCO: 6-0 Under at home vs. Detroit

NY JETS at INDIANAPOLIS, 4:15 PM ET
NY JETS: 9-1 Under the last 4 weeks of the regular season
INDIANAPOLIS: 22-7 ATS off BB covers as favorite

DALLAS at WASHINGTON, 8:20 PM ET NBC
DALLAS: 2-9 ATS in December
WASHINGTON: 10-3 Under playing with revenge

Monday, 12/28/2009

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
MINNESOTA: 6-0 Under 2nd half of season
CHICAGO: 6-0 Under 2nd half of season

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 12-23-2009, 10:01 PM

NFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Friday, December 25

7:30 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. TENNESSEE
San Diego is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego

Sunday, December 27

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. ATLANTA
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NY GIANTS
Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home
NY Giants are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. MIAMI
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NEW ENGLAND
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CINCINNATI
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. CLEVELAND
Oakland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. GREEN BAY
Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games

4:05 PM
DETROIT vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Detroit is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Detroit is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games
San Francisco is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

4:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Arizona is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home

4:15 PM
DENVER vs. PHILADELPHIA
Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Denver is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
NY JETS vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Washington is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Dallas
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas

Monday, December 28

8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
Minnesota is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

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**Udog** · 12-24-2009, 10:57 PM

NFL
Dunkel

San Diego at Tennessee
The Chargers look to take advantage of a Tennessee team that is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games against teams with a winning record. San Diego is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 25

Game 101-102: San Diego at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 139.610; Tennessee 138.831
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Under

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27

Game 103-104: Seattle at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.006; Green Bay 137.088
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 14; 41
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+14); Over

Game 105-106: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.363; Cleveland 124.629
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 32
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: Kansas City at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 120.234; Cincinnati 134.952
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 14 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 13; 40
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-13); Under

Game 109-110: Buffalo at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.866; Atlanta 15.166
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 9; 41
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+9); Under

Game 111-112: Houston at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.881; Miami 136.103
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Under

Game 113-114: Carolina at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 129.848; NY Giants 139.870
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10; 46
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7); Over

Game 115-116: Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.806; New Orleans 141.190
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 14 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 14; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-14); Under

Game 117-118: Jacksonville at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 129.741; New England 140.658
Dunkel Line: New England by 11; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 7 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7 1/2); Over

Game 119-120: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 132.959; Pittsburgh 132.563
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 121-122: Denver at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 131.520; Philadelphia 140.306
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7); Over

Game 123-124: St. Louis at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.038; Arizona 135.891
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 16; 40
Vegas Line: Arizona by 14; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-14); Under

Game 125-126: Detroit at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 117.164; San Francisco 132.087
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 15; 33
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 12; 41
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-12); Under

Game 127-128: NY Jets at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.235; Indianapolis 143.727
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5); Over

Game 129-130: Dallas at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.860; Washington 131.614
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 6; 43
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Over

MONDAY, DECEMBER 28

Game 131-132: Minnesota at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 140.093; Chicago 127.060
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7); Over

**Udog** · 12-24-2009, 11:07 PM

NFL

Week 16

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 16
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San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Why Chargers cover: They're 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Titans won't have leading tackler Keith Bulluck who is out for the season with a knee injury. They can clinch a playoff bye with a win.

Why Titans cover: Since Vince Young has taken over as the Titans' starting quarterback, they are 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS and averaging 29.5 points per game. Chris Johnson needs 336 rushing yards in the final two games to break Eric Dickerson's NFL record of 2,105 in a season. San Diego has the league's 21st-ranked run defense.

Total (47): Under is 3-1-1 in the Chargers last five road games.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-9)

Why Bills cover: They're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Fred Jackson has challenged his offensive line to help him get to the 1,000-yards barrier this season. Michael Turner is unlikely to play this week after re-injuring his ankle.

Why Falcons cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. With injuries to Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm will start at quarterback for Buffalo. The Bills will be without the NFL's interception leader, Jarius Byrd, and starting cornerback, Terrence McGee, who are out for the season.

Total (41): Under is 4-1 in the Bills last five road games and 4-1 in the Falcons last five home games.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Jamaal Charles has been dominating opposing defenses by ripping off big runs for touchdowns.

Why Bengals cover: Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Cedric Benson should have a big day against a defense that has been getting torched on the ground in recent weeks. They can clinch the AFC North title with a victory.

Total (40): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings of this series.

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Why Raiders cover: Browns are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. With Brady Quinn out for the season, Derek Anderson (2 TDs, 9 INTs) will start under center for Cleveland.

Why Browns cover: They've won six of the last eight meetings in this matchup. They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings. With Mike Holmgren taking over in the front office, current head coach Eric Mangini is auditioning to remain the coach next season. Jerome Harrison is coming off a franchise record 286-yard rushing game and gets to face the Raiders who have trouble stopping anyone on the ground.

Total (38): Over is 4-1 in the Raiders last five games.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-14)

Why Seahawks cover: Packers kicker Mason Crosby has missed a field goal in four straight games and is struggling with his confidence. Ben Roethlisberger lit up Green Bay for 503 yards passing and three touchdowns last week.

Why Packers cover: They've won five of the last six meetings. They're 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. The Seahawks are 0-2-2 ATS in their last four meetings and 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. Seattle has been terrible the last two weeks, and may have packed it in mentally.

Total (41.5): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings of this series.

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-3)

Why Texans cover: They have won all four all-time meetings. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings of this series. Their second-ranked pass attack could pose problems for Miami's rookie-laden secondary. They need to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Why Dolphins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. They need to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Total (45): Under is 6-0 in Texans last six road games and 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (-7)

Why Panthers cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They're 3-0 ATS with Matt Moore at quarterback. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. After a slow start, Steve Smith has totaled 318 yards receiving and two touchdowns in three games since Moore has taken over at quarterback.

Why Giants cover: They are averaging 30.8 points per game over their last five. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings of this series. Eli Manning has thrown for 900 yards in three games in December with eight touchdowns and only one pick. Carolina running back DeAngelo Williams is banged up and might not play.

Total (42.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings of this series.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)

Why Jaguars cover: Tom Brady has not been his usual self over the last four weeks, completing only 58 percent of his passes with four touchdowns against six interceptions. Maurice Jones-Drew could have a big day against a Patriots defense that is allowing 4.41 yards per carry to opposing runners.

Why Patriots cover: They've won the last four meetings of this series. The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. David Garrard has struggled on the road this season. Jacksonville's inability to sack opposing quarterbacks will give Brady time to throw.

Total (42): Under is 4-1 in the Jags last five games and 4-0-1 in the Patriots last five outings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-14)

Why Buccaneers cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in New Orleans. The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings of this matchup. New Orleans has struggled in recent weeks, and now that their quest for a perfect season is over they might be in for a letdown game.

Why Saints cover: Buccaneers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games. Saints head coach Sean Payton says he won't rest his starters. Tampa Bay has given up the fifth-most passing touchdowns in the NFL and Drew Brees has thrown 33 so far this season. They can clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed for the playoffs with a victory.

Total (49): Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings of this series.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Why Ravens cover: They've won five of the last eight meetings in this matchup. They're 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Pittsburgh's defense has been struggling in recent weeks and coach Mike Tomlin has lost confidence in it.

Why Steelers cover: The Ravens are 2-5 ATS in their last seven versus the AFC. Baltimore historically has problems at Heinz Field and is only 2-8 there since it opened in 2001. The Steelers ran for 153 yards to cover as 9-point underdogs in a 20-17 loss to the Ravens in Week 12.

Total (41.5): Over is 6-1 in the last seven matchups of this series and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Pittsburgh.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-13)

Why Rams cover: The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings of this series. With a playoff spot already secured, Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt may opt to rest some of his starters. Steven Jackson continues to put up big numbers on a weekly basis despite playing with a back injury.

Why Cardinals cover: They've won six straight meetings in this matchup. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Arizona's once pass-heavy offense has become well rounded thanks in large part to the play of rookie running back Beanie Wells. The Rams only average 11.0 points per game.

Total (43.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Arizona.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-12)

Why Lions cover: The 49ers are 2-6 ATS versus a team with a losing record. Alex Smith has struggled in his last two weeks, averaging 160 passing yards per game and throwing five interceptions.

Why 49ers cover: They've won 11 of the past 12 meetings in this series. The Lions are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in San Francisco and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings overall. Drew Stanton (22.1 rating) will start at quarterback for the Lions. Detroit has lost 19 straight road games.

Total (41): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings of this series in San Francisco.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)

Why Jets cover: They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Indianapolis might rest some of their starters during the game. The NFL's best defense could make it hard for the Colts to move the ball, especially if the reserves play. New York will be inspired to ruin Indy's quest for a perfect season.

Why Colts cover: The home team is 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings of this series. The favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. The Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games in Indianapolis. Mark Sanchez has been picked off 20 times this season.

Total (40.5): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings of this matchup.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

Why Broncos cover: It will be a big game for Brian Dawkins who makes his return to Philadelphia for the first time after playing there for 13 seasons. The Broncos will need to rebound from last week's loss to Oakland in order to stay in the thick of the playoff race.

Why Eagles cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Philadelphia will get running back Brian Westbrook back from his concussion. They are averaging 31.4 points per game during their five-game winning streak.

Total (41.5): Over is 4-1 in Broncos last five road games and 8-2-1 in Eagles last 11 home games.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+6.5)

Why Cowboys cover: They're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at Washington. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings of this series. DeMarcus Ware sacked Drew Brees twice last week and will face a Washington offensive line that has given up 38 sacks so far this season.

Why Redskins cover: The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. The underdog is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings of this series. Jason Campbell said last week's loss was the worst experience of his career so he will be inspired to play well.

Total (42.5): Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Washington.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+7)

Why Vikings cover: They've won four of the past five meetings in the series. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Jay Cutler has only topped 200 yards passing once in his last five games (209) and has thrown eight interceptions during that stretch. The Vikings should get receiver Percy Harvin back from illness.

Why Bears cover: The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings of this series. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Chicago. There is bad blood flowing between Brett Favre and coach Brad Childress that could spill over into this game. Adrian Peterson hasn't rushed for 100 yards in his last five games and is only averaging only 3.1 yards per carry during that time.

Total (41): Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.

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**Udog** · 12-24-2009, 11:13 PM

NFL

Friday, December 25

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What bettors need to know: Chargers at Titans
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San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-3, 47)

The Chargers are undoubtedly the hottest team in the NFL. Winners of nine straight, SD has outscored the opposition 265-147 over that stretch. SD has locked up the division title and needs one more win or a Patriot loss to lock up the No. 2 seed in the AFC which comes with an all-important first-round bye.

Do you remember when the Titans lost at New England 59-0? Well, since then, they’ve won seven of their last eight games and are actually in the playoff picture at 7-7. Tennessee needs to win its last two games and get a lot of help to earn a playoff berth, but the fact that it even has a pulse is impressive.

The Line

Motivation has been the biggest factor for this number. SD opened as the logical 1-point favorite but Titan backers jumped on it and now Tennessee is the 3-point favorite. Even Las Vegas oddsmakers felt that the Chargers should be the favorites but because SD is in good shape to get the No. 2 seed even if it loses, the Titans are the choice. The total has risen a point to 47.

Injury report

The Titans lost top tackler Keith Bulluck (ACL) and linebacker David Thornton (shoulder). Bulluck, who’s career may be over after the injury, calls the defensive assignments and that chore will go to Stephen Tulloch. Veteran Jamie Winborne was signed to replace Bulluck.

San Diego center Scott Mruczkowski, who did a fantastic job filling in for starter Nick Hardwick, was placed on IR. Hardwick missed the last 13 games because of torn ligaments in his left ankle, but says he’s ready to return Friday against Tennessee.

Defensive backs Eric Weddle and Quentin Jammer should both be ready to play as will defensive end Jacques Cesaire. Linebackers Shaun Phillips and Kevin Burnett are both questionable.

They’re not Secret Santas

SD’s Shawne Merriman still insists that he suffered a serious knee injury as a result of cheap shot in a game against Tennessee two years ago. Several players were hurt in that game and four players were fined for the physical play.

San Diego also eliminated Tennessee from the playoffs that year.

“They’re a physical team,” SD quarterback Phillip Rivers said. “They thought they could punk us and we obviously aren’t going to get punked. That’s Jeff Fisher’s style of play.

“He wants tough guys, he wants guys that go out there and get physical and get nasty and get after it and try to intimidate the opponent. That’s just his style of play. You’ve got to love a guy for that.”

Fisher, who’s 0-5 against the Chargers as the Titans head coach, responded to the criticism.

“We’ve had some great battles, great matchups, and didn’t wind up on the winning side of any of them,” said Fisher. “ … But I know there are some other teams I’ve heard of that don’t particularly care for the Chargers. Maybe it’s them.”

Young at heart

Let’s face it, the Titans’ season was virtually over after losing their first six games of the season, most of them in embarrassing fashion.

With nothing to lose, Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher gave Vince Young a shot at starting quarterback and the rest is history. Young is 7-1 as a starter and he’s also passed for 10 TDs and rushed for 243 yards.

Young’s presence has kept defenses keying on running back Chris Johnson, who is threatening to set the NFL single-season rushing mark. Last week the Dolphins tried to take CJ out of the picture so Young capitalized, connecting on two long TD passes to WR Justin Gage.

MVP race

While all the talk has centered on Peyton Manning and Drew Brees for MVP for most of the season, Phillip Rivers has jumped into the picture.

Rivers has thrown for 3,891 yards with 25 TDs and only 9 interceptions. He’s also made a star of wide receiver Vincent Jackson (1,097 yards, 9 TDs). The Chargers no longer rely on LaDainian Tomlinson, instead it’s been Rivers-to-Jackson or Rivers-to-Gates continuously.

Chris Johnson also has to be in the MVP picture. He’s gone over 100 yards in nine straight games.

You’re talking about playoffs?

San Diego’s stars hope to win this one and get some extra rest for the playoffs.

Tennessee’s playoff plight, however, is eerily similar to Vince Young’s first year in the NFL. In 2006 the Titans started 0-5 and won eight of the next 10. They went into the final game of the season needing to win and also needed three other teams to lose.

That seemed like a long shot but what happened made Young shake his head in disbelief afterward. All three of the other teams lost their games but Tennessee was routed by New England ending its hopes.

“I’ll take it as a learning thing for myself. I know what I have to do all this week to prepare, to get myself ready, to lead this team out and come back to get a win on Christmas,” Young said.

Said Chris Johnson: “Some things are falling our way, but at the end of the day, you can only control what you can control. A couple of years before we got here, it was the same situation and they went out and lost. If they had won, they would have gone to the playoffs. So, this year, we’re just going in and taking care of what we have to take care of.”

Weather

The forecast calls for cloudy skies with chilly temperatures in the upper 30s.

Trend-setting

The Chargers have won 17 straight games in December and are 11-6 ATS in those contests.

San Diego has gone over the total in eight of the last 11 games against AFC competition.

Tennessee is only 1-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

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**pm530** · 12-25-2009, 04:20 AM

NFL
Write-up

Week 16 NFL games

Friday, December 25

Chargers (11-3) @ Titans (7-7)-- Long road trip on short week for San Diego team that is pretty much locked in as #2 seed in AFC after beating Bengals last week. Chargers won last nine games, last three by 7-3-3 points; Bolts passed for 11.4/14.3/8.1/7.4 yards per pass attempt in last four games. Tennessee is 7-1 in last eight games after 0-6 start, with five of seven wins at home; they're 3-4 vs spread as underdog. Chargers are 2-2 as road favorite. AFC West faves are 3-5 vs spread in non-division games, 0-2 at home. AFC South underdogs are 5-5 vs spread. Over is 8-5 in last 13 Titan games, 3-1 last four Bolt games.

Sunday, December 27

Seahawks (5-9) @ Packers (9-5)-- Green Bay had five-game win streak ended by last-second Roethlisberger TD pass last week; Packers won four of its last five home games- they're 4-3 vs spread as home favorite. Pack held last seven opponents under 100 rushing yards (average of 67.7 ypg); Rodgers has been sacked only seven times in last five games (41 times in first nine). Seahawks lost last two games 34-7/24-7; eight of their nine losses are by 11+ pts, with Seattle 0-6 as road underdog this year. Four of last five Seattle games, three of last four Packer games stayed under the total. NFC North home favorites are 4-8 against spread.

Raiders (5-9) @ Browns (3-11)-- Oakland (0-4) was outscored 115-23 in four games that followed its first four wins; this is fourth road game in five weeks for Raider team that won its last two road games, and is 3-2 in last five games. Browns covered last five games, winning last two 13-6/41-34; Cribbs ran two kicks back for TDs last week. Browns ran ball for 212.3 ypg last three weeks, with Harrison for 286 last week, 3rd-best in NFL history. Unsure what effect Holmgren hiring will have on team rest of year. AFC West road dogs are 6-8 vs spread in non-division tilts. AFC North home favorites are 7-6 vs spread. Four of last five Oakland games went over the total.

Chiefs (3-11) @ Bengals (9-5)-- Toughest of weeks for Bengal squad that had to go to Louisiana for Henry's funeral Tuesday; Cincy lost last two games but won last four home games, allowing 12.3 ppg (five TDs on 41 drives)- they're 0-4 vs spread as home favorite this year. Underdogs covered 12 of 13 Bengal games, with one pick 'em. Chiefs lost last four games (0-4 vs spread) by 29-31-6-7 points, allowing average of 36 ppg (12 TDs on 46 drives). Four of last five Chief games went over total; five of last seven Bengal games stayed under. AFC West road underdogs are 6-8 vs spread. AFC North favorites are 8-10 vs spread, 7-6 at home.

Bills (5-9) @ Falcons (7-7)-- Brohm gets first NFL start at QB against Falcon team that needs two more wins to have back/back winning years for first time in franchise history. Bills are 3-4 on road, 4-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 1-28-24-3 points- only twice in seven road games has Buffalo lost by more than a FG. Atlanta is 2-4 in last six games, losing last two at home, both with Redman at QB- they're 4-2 vs spread as favorite, 4-1 at home. NFC South favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 7-5 at home. AFC East underdogs are 7-9 vs spread, 7-5 on road. Last four Atlanta games, eight of last ten Buffalo tilts stayed under the total.

Texans (7-7) @ Dolphins (7-7)-- Elimination game in crowded AFC Wild Card race. Houston is 6-2 outside its division, winning last five non-divisional tilts; they're 4-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdog (only non-cover was a 28-21 loss at Arizona, when they tied game 21-all after being down 21-0 at half'). Miami is 4-2 at home, but is favored at home for just second time this year- Dolphins' last three games were all decided by four or less points. Texans outscored last three opponents 31-6 in second half. AFC South road underdogs are 5-5 this season. AFC East home favorites are 6-5 against spread. Six of Houston's last seven games stayed under the total.

Panthers (6-8) @ Giants (8-6)-- Big Blue needs two wins and help to get into playoffs; they scored 31-38-45 points in last three games (13 TDs on last 31 drives), are 2-3 in last five home games, 1-4 as home favorite, with home wins by 6-37-3-7 points. This is likely Giants' last game in this stadium. Carolina coach Fox could very well be Giants' defensive coordinator next year; Panther defense allowed four TDs on last 45 drives. Carolina is 2-5 on road, 3-3 as a road dog, losing away games by 8-14-10-11-10 points. NFC South road dogs are 8-6 against spread; NFC East home favorites are 8-7. Carolina's last five games all stayed under the total.

Buccaneers (2-12) @ Saints (13-1)-- Unlikely results last week, with Saints losing, Bucs winning. Saints are 4-3 as home favorite, with four home wins by 14+ points. New Orleans won first meeting 38-7 in Week 11; Saints had 183 passing yards, 187 rushing with four takeaways (+4). Bucs had scored three TDs on last 48 drives before upsetting Seahawks 24-7 last week; they're 4-4 as road underdog, losing away games by 13-3-19-28-2-3-10 points. NFC North home favorites are 2-3 vs spread in division games. Four of last five Saint tilts, last five Tampa Bay games stayed under the total. Saints need to win here to stay ahead of Vikings in race for home field thru NFC playoffs.

Jaguars (7-7) @ Patriots (9-5)-- Jags lost three of last four games; too bad they lost twice to Colts by total of six points- they're 3-3 as road dog, losing away games by 2-41-17-17 points (won at Texans/Jets). New England won all seven home games- they're 4-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 1-16-6-59- 10-17-10 points. Four of last five Jaguar games, last four Patriot games stayed under total. AFC East home favorites are 6-5 against spread. AFC South road underdogs are 5-5 vs spread. Patriots are 2-4 if they allow 20+ points, 7-1 if they allow less. Jaguars scored 20+ twice in their last five games. This game is way more important to Jacksonville, whose season depends in it.

Ravens (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)-- Pitt snapped five-game skid with unlikely win last week, scoring on last play of game for 37-36 win (Big Ben passed for 503 yards). Steelers lost 20-17 at Baltimore in Week 12 (-7), in game Big Ben was out for (backup Dixon was 12-26/145 passing). Ravens are 2-4 on road, with wins at Chargers/Browns- they're 2-3 vs spread as the dog. Baltimore won its last two games 48-3/31-7, but foes were doormats Chicago/Detroit. Seven of last eight Baltimore games stayed under total. Underdogs are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North games this season. This is the pivotal game of weekend in playoff race; Steeler win creates wild scenario going into Week 17.

Broncos (8-6) @ Eagles (10-4)-- Red-hot Philly won last five games (4-1 vs spread), with last three wins by 27-7-14 points; they've won five of last six home games, are 3-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 20-19-23-3-14 points. Denver needs wins to stay in front of pack in Wild Card chase; they're 2-6 in last eight games, losing last two games 28-16/20-19- they're 2-2 as road dog, with road losses by 23-10-12 points. AFC West road dogs are 6-8 vs the spread. NFC East home favorites are 8-7. Bronco DB Dawkins is one of all-time great Eagle players; he returns to Linc here. Five of seven Eagle road tilts went over the total.

Rams (1-13) @ Cardinals (9-5)-- Playoff-bound Arizona was killing Rams at half in first meeting 21-3, but Warner sat out second half (concussion) and it got close late, with Rams throwing pass into end zone on last play to try and tie game (Arizona won 21-13, -9). St Louis lost last six games (5-2 vs spread in last seven); they're 4-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 28-2-35-3-8-40 points. Cardinals clinched division title, could still move up to #3 seed for playoffs; they're 2-3 as home favorite, winning by 7-11-13 points (3-3 SU at home). Home favorites are 4-2 vs spread in NFC West games. Four of the last five Arizona games stayed under the total.

Lions (2-12) @ 49ers (6-8)-- QB Stanton gets first start for Lions; he played second half vs Arizona last week, when Detroit rallied from 17-0 deficit to tie Redbirds before losing 31-24. Lions are 1-5-1 as road underdog, losing on road by 18-24-26-12-17-10-45 points- they lost last four games overall, allowing an average of 34 ppg (allowed 10 TDs on last 25 drives). 49ers are 4-2 as favorite this year, winning home games by 13-35-4-17-5 points, losing to Falcons and Cardinals at Candlestick. NFC North road dogs are 2-8 vs spread outside of its division; NFC West home favorites are 5-5. Three of 49ers' last four games stayed under the total.

Jets (7-7) @ Colts (14-0)-- No idea how long Manning, other starters playing here, but fact that they've had 10 days since last game has to increase chances of their playing longer here. Jets had 3-game win streak snapped with an ugly home loss to Falcons last week; they're 4-3 on road, 1-2 as road dog, losing by 14 at Saints, 4 at Miami, 17 at Patriots. Jet defense allowed just two TDs on last 48 drives, but facing high-powered Colts (15 TDs on last 38 drives) is a major step up in class. Indy is 3-4 as home favorite, winning its home games by 2-17-4-3-1-10-12 points. AFC South home favorites are 7-9 vs spread in non-division games. Last four Jet games stayed under total.

Cowboys (9-5) @ Redskins (4-10)-- Washington had covered five games in a row before 45-12 debacle vs Giants Monday night; Redskins are 3-4 at home, beating Rams/Bucs/Denver- they're 6-3 vs spread as underdog, 2-2 at home. Dallas could miss playoffs if they slip up, Giants win twice; they beat Skins 7-6 in first meeting (-10) in Week 11 running ball for 153 yards but not scoring until 2:41 was left in game. Dallas is 4-3 on road; they're 1-3 as road favorite, winning away games by 13-6-4-7 points (4-3 SU). Underdogs are 8-2 against spread in NFC East games, 2-2 at home. Seven of last eight Washington games went over the total. Six of last seven Dallas games stayed under.

Monday, December 28

Vikings (11-3) @ Bears (5-9)-- Minnesota lost last two road games by 13-19 points (three TDs on last 23 road drives); they've allowed 27.3 ppg their last four road games (1-3). Vikings waxed Chicago 36-10 four weeks ago (-10.5), outrushing Bears 159-43, converting 12-18 on 3rd down (Favre was 32-48/378 passing). Cutler has been awful at night, Bears have been terrible since its bye, losing eight of last ten games (0-7 vs spread last seven games)- they're 1-7 vs spread as underdog this year, losing home games by 20-4-7 points (4-3 SU). Favorites are 7-2-1 vs spread in NFC North games, 3-0 on road. Last six tilts for both teams stayed under the total.

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**Udog** · 12-25-2009, 02:24 PM

NFL

Friday, December 25

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Tips and Trends
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San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans [NFL Network | 7:30 PM ET]

Chargers: San Diego has won an NFL record 17 consecutive games in December. They have also clinched their 4th consecutive Division title, yet they have plenty to play for today. With a win today, they clinch the #2 seed in the AFC and a 1st Round Bye. Lost in their 9 game winning streak is the fact that this Chargers teams is 6-1 SU on the road this year. San Diego is 2-1 both SU and ATS this season as an underdog. QB Phillip Rivers had directed an offense that has transformed into a passing attack this season. Rivers has thrown for nearly 3,900 YDS and has the 3rd highest QB Rating in the NFL at 102.8. Rivers has 25 TDs against only 9 INTs on the season. San Diego averages 27.8 PPG, which is the 5th most in the NFL. No team has scored more than 24 PTS against the Chargers during their current 9 game winning streak. They have allowed 5 straight opponents to rush for more than 100 YDS against them however.

Chargers are 20-6-3 ATS last 29 games as an underdog.
Over is 11-5 last 16 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - LB Shawne Merriman (foot) is questionable.
C Nick Hardwick (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

Titans (-3, O/U 47): Tennessee still has faint playoff hopes, so they will be laying it all on the line tonight. They have battled back to 7-7 SU on the year, quite an achievement considering they were 0-6 SU to start the season. The Titans are 5-2 SU at home this season, riding a current 5 game home winning streak. The Titans are led by RB Chris Johnson, who leads the NFL in rushing with 1,730 YDS. Johnson has had 9 consecutive games with at least 100 YDS rushing. QB Vince Young has been stellar as well since taking over the QB job from Kerry Collins. Young has led his team to a 7-1 SU record and has a QB Rating of 92.5 this season. Young has 10 TD passes to only 4 INTs. Young is also coming off a career high 3 TD passes in his last game. Defensively, the Titans have held 4 of their past 6 opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. The Titans are injury riddled on the defensive side of the ball.

Titans are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games as a favorite up to a field goal.

Key Injuriesw - WR Nate Washington (ankle) is questionable.
LB Keith Bullock (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 12-25-2009, 10:41 PM

NFL

Week 16

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NFL total bias: Don't get Buffaloed
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Reindeer shouldn’t be the most popular animal on the block this holiday season.

Try a Buffalo Bill.

The offensively- inept team from upstate New York has been a revelation for under players this season. Buffalo is 5-9 over/under, including going a staggering 2-8 the past 10 weeks. So what’s been the key to the Bills and their incredible ability to fall short of the number?

Try offense, or lack thereof.

Just look at some of the events the team has had to fight through on offense this season.

Buffalo fired its offensive coordinator just days before the season began - and this wasn’t the worst news.

Starting quarterback Trent Edwards, best described as serviceable, has battled a concussion and ankle injuries and is now out for the rest of the season. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, yeah, the guy from Harvard, is listed as questionable this week against Atlanta as he fights an ankle injury of his own.

Starting running back Marshawn Lynch has failed to supplant Fred Jackson for the starting job after returning from a three-game suspension to start the season. Seriously, he couldn’t beat out Fred Jackson.

And it’s not like the team can block anyone. Offensive linemen Brad Butler, Seth McKinney, Kendall Simmons, Demetrius Bell and Eric Wood all are expected to miss the rest of the season with injuries and tackle Jamon Meredith listed as questionable for Sunday. At this point, a turnstile, a banana peel and a traffic cone might offer better pass protection.

The numbers back up all of these disastrous developments. The offense averages a paltry 273.8 yards per game, third-worst in the league, and a meager 16.1 points per game, the fifth fewest.

And you haven’t even heard the best news yet: third-year signal caller Brian Brohm has taken the majority of the first team reps this week at practice.

To put into perspective how little experience he has, think of it this way: Bills punter Brian Moorman has more pro pass attempts this season (1) than Brohm has in his career (0). Good luck with that.

The Atlanta defense isn’t anything special, but proved what it could do against a green quarterback last week against the Jets when it held them to a mere touchdown in the Meadowlands. The Falcons also likely will be without starting running back Michael Turner again, taking a huge offensive weapon away from them.

Make an early New Year’s resolution: Don’t get Buffaloed. When it comes to the Bills, take the under.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-9, 41)

A banged-up Michael Turner is a huge development for this game. The Bills have the worst rush defense in the league, but the third-best pass defense.

Atlanta loves to run the ball to set up deep, play-action passes to Roddy White. But with Buffalo taking away deep shots, the team will have to keep the ball on the ground, running the clock and keeping the score low.

We already touched on the fact that Buffalo will have trouble scoring, if at all, and will try to keep this game low-scoring and win on a late mistake. Remember, don’t get Buffaloed.

Pick: Under

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5, 40)

I am going to continue riding the Chiefs and their remarkable over/under record of 8-4-2. Last week, Kansas City and Cleveland eclipsed the total before halftime.

The Bengals defense allowed 27 points last week to San Diego and has actually trended down as the season has progressed, allowing 20 or more points in three of their past five games.

Plus, the Bengals figure to continue to air the ball out and should have little trouble scoring against the pathetic Chiefs defense. And even if Cincinnati decides to run the ball, Cedric Benson should have little trouble replicating something similar to Jerome Harrisons record performance last week for the Browns.

This game will feature plenty of points and, one way or another, will find a way to surpass the total.

Pick: Over

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 42)

Here me out: the past five meetings in Pittsburgh have all gone over the total.

And both offenses are firing on all cylinders, with the Ravens averaging 28.3 points per game over the past four weeks and the Steelers averaging 21 points per game over the same span.

Baltimore knows to win in Pittsburgh it has to score and the Steelers have been one of the few teams to find success against the Ravens defense.

The trends don’t lie. Look for points to be put on the board this week in the Steel City.

Pick: Over

Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 19-26

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**Udog** · 12-26-2009, 10:39 PM

NFL

Week 16

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Eye on the skies: NFL Week 16 weather report
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Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-14, 41.5)

It’s perfect football weather in Wisconsin – which means snow and lots of it. The forecast is calling for snow showers and temperatures in the 20s at Lambeau Field. The Seahawks are used to bad weather, but playing in the snow is different from playing in the rain.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9, 43.5)

This isn’t the Sunshine State. Jacksonville finds itself in a winter rain storm in New England. The forecast is calling for rain and temperatures to dip to low 40s. The sloppy turf at Gillette Stadium could make running tough for Maurice Jones-Drew. Tom Brady and the boys seem to relish playing in weather like this.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5, 40)

The forecast is calling for snow showers in Ohio Sunday afternoon. Adding to the slick surfaces will be a 13-mph wind blowing WSW from corner to corner, chilling the field into the low 30s. The snow should make running slick and the wind could carry a couple passes off their mark. The under 40 points is looking very tempting.

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3, 38)

For a game this bad, you would only expect the weather to match the talent. While the Raiders and Browns stink it up on the field, Mother Nature does her worst with snow, cold and wind. Flurries and a 12-mph breeze will drop the temperature in Cleveland Stadium into the low 20s come Sunday afternoon.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-13, 41)

Even California can’t escape the bad weather this weekend. The forecast in San Francisco is calling for rain Sunday afternoon. The Lions are used to the dry confines of Ford Field and the trip to the West Coast could have Detroit feeling a little soggy. The Niners have played under the total in four straight games.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+7, 41)

They don’t call it the Windy City for nothing. The early forecast in Chicago calls for strong 23-mph winds ripping through Soldier Field Monday night. Temperatures will fall into the low 30s, taking some of the punch out of each team’s passing attack. Brett Favre may find himself handing the ball off to Adrian Peterson more than looking down field.

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**Udog** · 12-27-2009, 09:39 AM

NFL
Dunkel - Sun. POD

Carolina at NY Giants
The Giants look to take advantage of a Carolina team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. New York is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7).

**Udog** · 12-27-2009, 09:54 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 27

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Tips and Trends
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

Ravens: Baltimore controls its own fate in making the playoffs this year. They are 8-6 SU on the season, having won 3 of their past 4 games SU. The Ravens have already beaten the Steelers this year 20-17 as 9 point favorites. The Ravens are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road this season. The Ravens are also 2-3 ATS this season as the listed underdog. Baltimore has scored 79 PTS over their past 2 games to get back on track offensively. QB Joe Flacco is coming off a career game in his own right, and has over 3,300 passing YDS this season. RB Ray Rice has been a revelation this year, as he has nearly 1,800 YDS from scrimmage this year. The Ravens average 25 PPG, the 9th most in the NFL. This Ravens defense is still a force, as they've held 7 of their past 8 opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. Baltimore is 2nd in the NFL allowing only 16.1 PPG. This defense has also forced 15 turnovers over their past 5 games.

Key Injuries - Ravens are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog up to a field goal.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games as a road underdog up to a field goal.

Key Injuries - S Ed Reed (knee) is questionable.
T Jared Gaither (foot) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Steelers (-3, O/U 42): Technically, the Steelers are still in the hunt for a Wild Card berth into the playoffs. The Steelers are coming off a win to get to 7-7 SU on the year. The Steelers are only 4-10 ATS this year, including losing 5 of their last 6 ATS. Pittsburgh is only 2-5 ATS this year at home. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 YDS in his last game, and has nearly 3,850 YDS passing for the season with twice as many TDs as INTs. WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes have each gone over 1,000 YDS receiving for the season, combining for 9 TDs. This Steelers offense averages 22.5 PPG for the season. Defensively, the Steelers appear to be wearing down as they've given up 27 PTS or more in 3 of their past 5 games. The Steelers defense has been particularly vulnerable in the 4th quarter, as they've given up 121 4th quarter points, the 2nd most in the NFL.

Steelers are 0-5 ATS last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 10-1 last 11 games as a home favorite up to a field goal.

Key Injuries - WR Hines Ward (hamstring) is questionable.
S Troy Polamalu (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

Cowboys (-7, O/U 42): Despite a roller coaster season, the Cowboys can win the NFC East if they win their remaining 2 games. The Cowboys are coming off their best game of the season, an improbable win against the undefeated Saints in New Orleans. Dallas is 9-5 SU on the year, including a road record of 4-3 SU. Dallas faced the Redskins just over a month ago, and squeeked out a 7-6 victory at home as 11 point favorites. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS as the road favorite. QB Tony Romo has been playing great over his past 4 games, throwing 8 TDs against no INTs with a QB Rating of 111.9. WR Miles Austin is 2nd in the NFC in both receiving YDS and TD's this year, as he's enjoyed a breakout season. Defensively, Dallas is only allowing 17.9 PPG, which is 7th in the NFL. They held the Saints to a season low 17 PTS in their most recent game.

Cowboys are 0-4 ATS last 4 games as a road favorite.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games overall.

Key Injuries - TE Martellus Bennett (concussion) is questionable.
S Pat Watkins (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Redskins: Is there a better 4-10 SU team in the NFL? Washington is coming off a blowout SU loss, yet have still covered 5 of their last 6 games. The Redskins are 3-4 SU at home, with an ATS record of 2-5. Washington is 5-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season. including 2-2 ATS as a home underdog. The Redskins are in the process of getting their offense back on track, scoring 24 PTS or more in 3 of their last 4 games. QB Jason Campbell has 8 TD passes over his past 4 games against 5 INTs. Washington has struggled running the football since RB Clinton Portis went out with a head injury. The Redskins have been held under 100 rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games. Washington has given up nearly 30 PPG over their past 4 games. This defense is wearing down, and that is a huge reason why the Redskins have played to the over in 7 of their past 8 games.

Redskins are 5-0 ATS last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - DE Andre Carter (bicep) is probable.
WR Devin Thomas (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (Side of the Day)

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**Udog** · 12-28-2009, 11:15 AM

NFL

Monday, December 28

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Tips and Trends
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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

Vikings (-8, O/U 41.5): All is not well in Minnesota after a storybook beginning to their season. The Vikings have lost 2 of their past 3 games SU, and there are grumblings that QB Brett Favre is wearing down. The Vikings are still an impressive 11-3 SU, but all 3 losses have come on the road this season. Minnesota is 4-3 both SU and ATS this season, with the same result in each road game. The Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS as a favorite greater than 7 PTS this season. Favre had his best game of the season when he faced Chicago earlier this season, throwing for nearly 400 YDS and 3 TDs. RB Adrian Peterson has over 1,200 YDS rushing this season, but he hasn't rushed for more than 100 YDS in any of his past 5 games. Defensively, the Vikings have held 4 of their past 6 opponents to 10 PTS or fewer. The Vikings allow less than 90 rushing YPG, which is 4th in the NFL.

Vikings are 7-1 ATS last 8 games following a SU loss.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - CB Antoine Winfield (foot) is questionable.
G Steve Hutchinson (shoulder) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Bears: Chicago is clearly wanting this season to simply be over, as they've lost 8 of their last 10 games SU. That 10 game stretch also includes losing 9 of their last 10 games ATS, including 7 straight. The Bears are 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS at home this season. Chicago is only 1-7 ATS this year as an underdog. QB Jay Cutler has an NFL high 25 INTs this year, and is on pace to be the first QB in over 20 years to have 30 INTs. Cutler does have 3,100 passing YDS and 19 TDs on the season. RB Matt Forte is the main offensive weapon for the Bears, as he has over 1,000 total YDS this season. However, he is the only skill position player with at least 700 YDS this season. The Bears defense allows 23 PPG, as they struggle to stop the run this year. Chicago allows 128.5 YPG via the ground game. The Bears are playing on revenge, as they lost by 26 PTS earlier this season in Minnesota as 10 point underdogs.

Bears are 0-7 ATS last 7 games overall.
Under is 7-0 last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.

Key Injuries - LB Lance Briggs (back) is questionable.
WR Devin Hester (calf) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 10

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (12/25 - 12/28)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (12/25 - 12/28)

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