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In the name of full disclosure, I have a thing for unders. I look for them, and I play them more regularly than the side or over. I also win more often than I lose.
I have avoided the bowl season up until now, and, as Wyoming ML and BYU -20 would never have entered my mind, I am glad that is true.
Tonight, my wallet opens up in a big way because I think that Utah and Cal are both deceptively offensively challenged teams, and I think the offense that each will employ will lead to more running clocks than big plays.
Utah gives up 141 rushing yards/game on defense, which has to rank them as one of the worst of all bowl teams in this category. BUT, and this is a big but, that average is tilted hugely by 3 games. Utah gave up 342 rushing yards to TCU, 254 rushing yards to Air Force, and 217 to Oregon. Most interestingly, in the latter two games, in which Utah yielded very large yds/carry, but did not give up big plays, only 32 points were scored in regulation in the AF game and only 48 points were scored in regulation in the Ore game. Without Jahvid Best, Cal has a strong running game, but they are no TCU, and I think the Cal strategy will be to run the ball, and I think the Utah strategy will be to make sure that Vereen does not break off runs for huge gains.
Both of these defenses have defended the passing game well, and that is really bad news for 2 QBs, Kevin Riley (17 passing TDs in 12 starts) and Wynn (5 passing TDs in 5 starts!) who are not gunslingers by any means.
In the games early in the season when Cal's totals were sky-high, it was Jahvid Best 60 and 70 yard runs that were propelling the scoring. While Vereen has been great, and the offensive line is clearly a run-blocking machine, this is an offense that basically lacks any quick-strike threat.
Wynn may be the QB of the future, but his five starts do not remind anyone of the Alex Smith years at Utah. In his 3 starts against bowl teams, he threw 1 TD against Wyoming, 1 TD against TCU and 0 TDs vs BYU. That leaves the scoring onus on Eddie Wide, a very steady RB, who has topped 1,000 yards rushing this season, but whose longest rush in 182 attempts is just 37 yards.
To keep a long story long, these are two teams who have participated in some high-scoring games this season, but neither team boasts a quick-score threat. Weather should not be a factor, so 6 yard punts like we saw last night should not affect scoring, and I really think that two teams who will run more than they pass will keep the clock flowing, and 52 is a lot of points in such an affair. I think Cal can and should win this game, but I like the under a whole hell of a lot more.
CAL/UTAH Under 52 Good luck.
I have avoided the bowl season up until now, and, as Wyoming ML and BYU -20 would never have entered my mind, I am glad that is true.
Tonight, my wallet opens up in a big way because I think that Utah and Cal are both deceptively offensively challenged teams, and I think the offense that each will employ will lead to more running clocks than big plays.
Utah gives up 141 rushing yards/game on defense, which has to rank them as one of the worst of all bowl teams in this category. BUT, and this is a big but, that average is tilted hugely by 3 games. Utah gave up 342 rushing yards to TCU, 254 rushing yards to Air Force, and 217 to Oregon. Most interestingly, in the latter two games, in which Utah yielded very large yds/carry, but did not give up big plays, only 32 points were scored in regulation in the AF game and only 48 points were scored in regulation in the Ore game. Without Jahvid Best, Cal has a strong running game, but they are no TCU, and I think the Cal strategy will be to run the ball, and I think the Utah strategy will be to make sure that Vereen does not break off runs for huge gains.
Both of these defenses have defended the passing game well, and that is really bad news for 2 QBs, Kevin Riley (17 passing TDs in 12 starts) and Wynn (5 passing TDs in 5 starts!) who are not gunslingers by any means.
In the games early in the season when Cal's totals were sky-high, it was Jahvid Best 60 and 70 yard runs that were propelling the scoring. While Vereen has been great, and the offensive line is clearly a run-blocking machine, this is an offense that basically lacks any quick-strike threat.
Wynn may be the QB of the future, but his five starts do not remind anyone of the Alex Smith years at Utah. In his 3 starts against bowl teams, he threw 1 TD against Wyoming, 1 TD against TCU and 0 TDs vs BYU. That leaves the scoring onus on Eddie Wide, a very steady RB, who has topped 1,000 yards rushing this season, but whose longest rush in 182 attempts is just 37 yards.
To keep a long story long, these are two teams who have participated in some high-scoring games this season, but neither team boasts a quick-score threat. Weather should not be a factor, so 6 yard punts like we saw last night should not affect scoring, and I really think that two teams who will run more than they pass will keep the clock flowing, and 52 is a lot of points in such an affair. I think Cal can and should win this game, but I like the under a whole hell of a lot more.
CAL/UTAH Under 52 Good luck.
NBA is a joke
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