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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (12/17 - 12/21)

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  • #16
    NFL


    Sunday, December 20


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    Tips and Trends
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    Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers [CBS | 4:05 PM ET]

    Bengals: Tough situational spot here for the Bengals after the passing of Chris Henry. This team has shown character all season long, so we will see how they handle adversity today. The Bengals are 9-4 SU on the season, and have played especially well on the road this year. They are 4-2 away from home, including 3 outright wins as underdogs. In fact, the Bengals are 6-1 ATS as underdogs this year. A big reason for this underdog success is their defense. This Bengals defense allows the 2nd fewest points in the NFL at 16.7 PPG. Prior to last week, the Bengals had held 6 straight opponents to 20 PTS or fewer. Offensively, the Bengals have only scored more than 17 PTS twice in their past 6 games. RB Cedric Benson leads this team in rushing, but he is out with an injury. WR Chad Ochocinco is the only Bengals player with more than 500 receiving YDS.

    Bengals are 8-1 ATS last 9 games as an underdog.
    Under is 5-1 last 6 games as a road underdog.

    Key Injuries - CB Johnathan Joseph (undisclosed) is questionable.
    S Chris Crocker (ankle) is doubtful.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 14

    Chargers (-7, O/U 43.5): To say the Chargers are streaking would be an understatement. Outside of the Colts and Saints, nobody is hotter than the Chargers. They've won 8 straight games SU to be 10-3 on the season. In that 8 game winning streak, they are 6-2 ATS, with both their losses ATS coming as double digit favorites. San Diego is 3-3 ATS at home this season, including 4-2 ATS when favored by single digits this season. QB Philip Rivers in having an MVP caliber season, as he's thrown for nearly 3,600 YDS with 22 TDs against 7 INTs. TE Antonio Gates has over 1,000 YDS receiving, and has 3 TDs in his past 3 games. Overall, this Chargers offense averages 27.8 PPG which is 5th best in the NFL. Defensively, San Diego gives up 19.9 PPG. The Chargers haven't allowed any opponent to score more than 23 PTS against them during this current 8 game winning streak.

    Chargers are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a ATS win.

    Key Injuries - C Nick Hardwick (ankle) is doubtful.
    LB Shaun Phillips (ankle) is probable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)



    Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

    Vikings (-9, O/U 43): With a win today, the Vikings can clinch their division title. It's been a stellar year for the Vikings, as they are 11-2 SU on the season. They are also 8-4-1 ATS this year, including 7-3-1 ATS as the listed favorite. Better yet, the Vikings have only lost once ATS as a favorite of at least a touchdown. Lastly, the Vikings are 4-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. QB Brett Favre has had yet another brilliant season, as he's thrown for more than 3,300 YDS with 27 TDs against 6 INTs. However, 3 of those INT's have come in the past 2 games, as he has just as many INTs as TDs in those 2 games. RB Adrian Peterson has rushed for 1,200 YDS, which ranks him 4th in the NFL. The Vikings defense has only allowed 18.7 PPG this year, including a current 5 game stretch where they've held 4 of their opponents to 10 PTS or fewer.

    Vikings are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

    Key Injuries - WR Percy Harvin (migraine) is questionable.
    CB Karl Paymah (knee) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

    Panthers: Carolina is simply playing out their season, as they are 5-8 SU this year. They've lost 3 of their past 4 games to lose any hope of making the playoffs. Carolina is 3-3 SU at home this season, including an ATS record of 2-4. The Panthers are 1-1 SU and ATS this season as a home underdog, as they've been 1 point underdogs twice this season at home. The Panthers are 3-1 ATS as a double digit underdog this year. QB Matt Moore has taken over the responsibilities of QB for the Panthers, and he's been merely average his past 2 games. RB DeAngelo Williams leads a rushing attack that is 4th in the NFL with 149 YPG. Williams has over 1,100 rushing YDS along with 7 TD's this season. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 21.7 PPG this season. This Panthers defense really struggles to stop the run, as they allow 137 rushing YPG, which is the 7th worst in the NFL.

    Panthers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    Under is 9-0 last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

    Key Injuries - QB Jake Delhomme (finger) is doubtful.
    RB Jonathan Stewart (toe) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 10


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    • #17
      NFL
      Dunkel - Sun. POD



      New England at Buffalo
      The Patriots look to take advantage of a Buffalo team that is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games. New England is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: New England (-7).

      Comment


      • #18
        NFL

        Monday, December 21



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        Game of the day: New York Giants at Washington Redskins
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        New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1, 43)

        The 7-6 Giants desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive when they travel to the nation's capitol to face the 4-9 Washington Redskins.

        New York's hopes of winning the NFC East pretty much died last week with a 45-38 loss to the Eagles, but the Giants still have a decent shot at the postseason if they can win out.

        The Redskins have been playing some inspired football lately under lame duck coach Jim Zorn. Washington has won two of its past five games and its three losses during that span all came by a field goal or less.

        Line movement

        Books opened the Giants as 3-point favorites with the juice shaded to the Redskins. The G-Men are currently favored by 1 to 2.5 points. The total was posted at 42 and has moved up a point to 43.

        Weather

        The temperature is expected to dip into the 20s. No precipitation is expected.

        Injury report

        The Giants don't expect to have offensive tackle Kareem McKenzie (knee) and cornerback Corey Webster (knee) in the lineup this week. Cornerback Aaron Ross is questionable with a hamstring injury.

        Washington has many players listed as questionable this week, most notably cornerback DeAngelo Hall (knee) and fullback Mike Sellers (thigh). Offensive tackle Stephon Heyer, safety Kareem Moore and defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin are also unlikely to play. Defensive tackle and run-stuffer Albert Haynesworth, who missed last week with an ankle injury, is listed as probable.

        Playing spoiler

        The Redskins are guaranteed a last-place finish in the NFC East, but they could still spoil playoff chances for their division rivals.

        After this week's game with the Giants, Washington will be home to the Cowboys next Sunday.

        "I'd love to be the Grinch on their Christmas," rookie linebacker Brian Orakpo said. "That's what we're aiming for. Obviously we're not going to make the playoffs, but we would ruin some other people's seasons."

        Washington is one of only four teams in the NFL without a win in its division this season, going 0-4 against NFC East rivals so far.

        The last time the Redskins went winless in division games was 1994, when they finished with a 3-13 record under Norv Turner.

        Defensive doldrums

        The Giants' defense ranks eighth in total yards and ninth against both the run and the pass, but the team is 28th in points allowed this year.

        New York has surrendered 126 points in its last four games, and has given up 40-plus points three times this season.

        Once known for their fearsome pass rush, the Giants are 26th in the NFL with only 26 sacks. Mathias Kiwanuka has replaced defensive end Osi Umenyiora in the starting lineup the past two games.

        "It's evident that we haven't played our best," said defensive end Justin Tuck. "The fact is that somewhere or somehow we kind of got off pace as far as what we have been known for and what we normally do on defense."

        Big plays have killed the Giants recently. Last week, they allowed touchdowns on a punt return and a fumble return against the Eagles.

        Trends

        New York has won six of its last seven games against Washington and is 5-1-1 against the spread during that span. The Giants are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to FedEx Field. The favorite is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 games between these teams, and the road side is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.

        The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings, but the over has cashed in six of the last eight games in Washington. Six of the Redskins' past seven games have gone over the total.


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        • #19
          NFL
          Dunkel - Mon. POD



          NY Giants at Washington
          The Redskins look to take advantage of a Giants team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite. Washington is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Redskins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3).

          Comment


          • #20
            NFL


            Monday, December 21


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            Tips and Trends
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            Thursday, December 17

            Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars [NFL Network | 8:20 PM ET]

            Colts (-3, O/U 43): What else can be said about the Colts other than perfection? Indianapolis has already clinched the number 1 seed in the AFC during the Playoffs. Along with a perfect 13-0 SU record, Indianapolis is also 9-3-1 ATS on the season. This includes a road ATS record of 6-0 this year. This Colts offense really comes alive on the road, as they've scored 27 PTS or more in 5 of their 6 road games. This offense is a huge reason they are 5-0 ATS as a road favorite on the season. QB Peyton Manning has been remarkable this season, throwing for more than 3,900 YDS, including 29 TDs. Manning leads the NFL with 3,905 passing YDS, which is a per game average over 300 YDS. As a team, the Colts are 5th in the NFL with 27.6 PPG this season. Defensively, the Colts allow only 16.7 PPG which is 2nd best in the entire NFL. The Colts scored a season low 14 points in Week 1 against the Jaguars.

            Colts are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite.
            Under is 5-1 last 6 vs. AFC South.

            Key Injuries - DE Robert Mathis (quad) is questionable.
            T Tony Ugoh (knee) is probable.

            PROJECTED SCORE: 23

            Jaguars: Jacksonville is in desperation mode, needing to win their final 3 games to have any chance at making the playoffs. These two teams met in Week 1, with the Colts winning by 2 points. The Jaguars were +6.5 underdogs and easily covered. Jacksonville is 5-3 ATS as an underdog this year, including a perfect 2-0 ATS record as a home underdog. In both home games as underdogs this season, the Jaguars combined score is is 60-35. QB David Garrard has thrown for nearly 3,000 YDS this season at a completion percentage of 60%. RB Maurice Jones Drew has nearly 1,450 total YDS with 14 TDs. This Jaguars defense has started to come alive over the past 4 weeks, as they've held 4 consecutive opponents to 20 PTS or fewer. This defense will have to again be stellar to give their team a chance to beat a Peyton Manning led Colts team.

            Jaguars are 10-2 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog up to a field goal.
            Under is 4-0 last 4 games overall.

            Key Injuries - CB Rashean Mathis (leg) is questionable.
            WR Mike Sims-Walker (calf) is probable.

            PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)



            Saturday, Decemberf 19

            Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints [NFL Network | 8:20 PM ET]

            Cowboys: The December struggles continue for the Cowboys, as they've lost both games this month SU and ATS. In fact, the Cowboys have lost 4 of their last 5 games ATS. Dallas can still win their division, but they must win their remaining 3 games. Today is only the 2nd game this season the Cowboys are an underdog. They were 3 point underdogs against the Eagles earlier this season and won SU 20-16. Dallas is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road this season. This Cowboys offense has been less that dynamic lately, as they've been held to 20 PTS or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games. QB Tony Romo has thrown for more than 3,550 YDS with 23 TDs on the season. WR Miles Austin continues to be the offensive game breaker for Dallas, as he has 999 receiving YDS along with 10 TDs this year. Dallas is 3rd in YPG with 391, but only have 22.8 PPG to show for it. The Cowboys defense needs to play better, as they've given up 51 PTS combined the past 2 weeks.

            Cowboys 1-5 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
            Under is 5-1 last 6 games overall.

            Key Injuries - LB Demarcus Ware (neck) is questionable.
            TE Martellus Bennett (concussion) is questionable.

            PROJECTED SCORE: 27

            Saints (-7.5, O/U 53.5): New Orleans is still a perfect 13-0 on the season. The dream season marches on as they play their 2nd to last regular season game at home today. The Saints are 4-2 ATS at home this season, including a perfect 3-0 ATS when favored by single digits. New Orleans has been playing very close games of late, as they might be feeling some pressure to finish undefeated. New Orleans has lost 5 of their past 7 games ATS. QB Drew Brees leads an offense that is easily the best in the NFL. The Saints are the only team averaging more than 30 PTS on the season, currently with 35.8 PPG. They also lead the NFL in YPG, with 426. Defensively, the Saints have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 23 PTS or fewer. The Saints are 2nd in the NFL in interceptions with 24, including a league high 8 defensive TDs.

            Saints are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
            Over is 12-4-1 last 17 games as a home favorite.

            Key Injuries - TE Jeremy Shockey (toe) is questionable.
            LB Scott Fujita (knee) is questionable.

            PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (OVER - Total of the Day)



            Sunday, December 20

            Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers [CBS | 4:05 PM ET]

            Bengals: Tough situational spot here for the Bengals after the passing of Chris Henry. This team has shown character all season long, so we will see how they handle adversity today. The Bengals are 9-4 SU on the season, and have played especially well on the road this year. They are 4-2 away from home, including 3 outright wins as underdogs. In fact, the Bengals are 6-1 ATS as underdogs this year. A big reason for this underdog success is their defense. This Bengals defense allows the 2nd fewest points in the NFL at 16.7 PPG. Prior to last week, the Bengals had held 6 straight opponents to 20 PTS or fewer. Offensively, the Bengals have only scored more than 17 PTS twice in their past 6 games. RB Cedric Benson leads this team in rushing, but he is out with an injury. WR Chad Ochocinco is the only Bengals player with more than 500 receiving YDS.

            Bengals are 8-1 ATS last 9 games as an underdog.
            Under is 5-1 last 6 games as a road underdog.

            Key Injuries - CB Johnathan Joseph (undisclosed) is questionable.
            S Chris Crocker (ankle) is doubtful.

            PROJECTED SCORE: 14

            Chargers (-7, O/U 43.5): To say the Chargers are streaking would be an understatement. Outside of the Colts and Saints, nobody is hotter than the Chargers. They've won 8 straight games SU to be 10-3 on the season. In that 8 game winning streak, they are 6-2 ATS, with both their losses ATS coming as double digit favorites. San Diego is 3-3 ATS at home this season, including 4-2 ATS when favored by single digits this season. QB Philip Rivers in having an MVP caliber season, as he's thrown for nearly 3,600 YDS with 22 TDs against 7 INTs. TE Antonio Gates has over 1,000 YDS receiving, and has 3 TDs in his past 3 games. Overall, this Chargers offense averages 27.8 PPG which is 5th best in the NFL. Defensively, San Diego gives up 19.9 PPG. The Chargers haven't allowed any opponent to score more than 23 PTS against them during this current 8 game winning streak.

            Chargers are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
            Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a ATS win.

            Key Injuries - C Nick Hardwick (ankle) is doubtful.
            LB Shaun Phillips (ankle) is probable.

            PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)



            Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

            Vikings (-9, O/U 43): With a win today, the Vikings can clinch their division title. It's been a stellar year for the Vikings, as they are 11-2 SU on the season. They are also 8-4-1 ATS this year, including 7-3-1 ATS as the listed favorite. Better yet, the Vikings have only lost once ATS as a favorite of at least a touchdown. Lastly, the Vikings are 4-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. QB Brett Favre has had yet another brilliant season, as he's thrown for more than 3,300 YDS with 27 TDs against 6 INTs. However, 3 of those INT's have come in the past 2 games, as he has just as many INTs as TDs in those 2 games. RB Adrian Peterson has rushed for 1,200 YDS, which ranks him 4th in the NFL. The Vikings defense has only allowed 18.7 PPG this year, including a current 5 game stretch where they've held 4 of their opponents to 10 PTS or fewer.

            Vikings are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

            Key Injuries - WR Percy Harvin (migraine) is questionable.
            CB Karl Paymah (knee) is questionable.

            PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

            Panthers: Carolina is simply playing out their season, as they are 5-8 SU this year. They've lost 3 of their past 4 games to lose any hope of making the playoffs. Carolina is 3-3 SU at home this season, including an ATS record of 2-4. The Panthers are 1-1 SU and ATS this season as a home underdog, as they've been 1 point underdogs twice this season at home. The Panthers are 3-1 ATS as a double digit underdog this year. QB Matt Moore has taken over the responsibilities of QB for the Panthers, and he's been merely average his past 2 games. RB DeAngelo Williams leads a rushing attack that is 4th in the NFL with 149 YPG. Williams has over 1,100 rushing YDS along with 7 TD's this season. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 21.7 PPG this season. This Panthers defense really struggles to stop the run, as they allow 137 rushing YPG, which is the 7th worst in the NFL.

            Panthers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
            Under is 9-0 last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

            Key Injuries - QB Jake Delhomme (finger) is doubtful.
            RB Jonathan Stewart (toe) is questionable.

            PROJECTED SCORE: 10



            Monday, December 21

            New York Giants at Washington Redskins [ESPN| 8:30 PM ET]

            Giants (-3, O/U 43.5): New York is 7-6 SU on the season, and are fighting to stay in the Wild Card hunt. The Giants have already beaten the Redskins once this year, 23-17 in Week 1. After winning their first 5 games of the season, the Giants are only 2-6 SU since. The Giants have also lost 7 of their past 8 games ATS. New York is 3-3 both SU and ATS this year away from home. Defensively, New York has allowed more than 30 PTS in 4 of their past 8 games. For the season, the Giants are the 5th worst defense in the NFL allowing 25.4 PPG. On offense, the Giants simply can't hold onto the football as they have 9 turnovers in their past 3 games. QB Eli Manning is battling injuries, but still has 3,300 passing YDS with 23 TDs against 11 INTs. WR Steve Smith is the main target in the passing game, as he has 85 receptions for over 1,000 YDS which ranks him in the top 3 in the NFC in both categories.

            Giants are 11-4 ATS last 15 games as a road favorite.
            Over is 6-0-1 last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

            Key Injuries - CB Aaron Ross (hamstring) is questionable.
            CB Corey Webster (knee) is doubtful.

            PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total of the Day)

            Redskins : Washington is ending their season the right way, playing hard as a team in every game. Their record might only be 4-9 SU, but this Redskins team has won 5 consecutive games ATS. Washington is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog, including 2-1 ATS as a home underdog. The Redskins are also 3-3 SU at home this season. Washington is averaging nearly 30 PPG over the past 3 weeks, by far their best offensive stretch of the season. QB Jason Campbell has been pretty good over his past 7 games, as he has a QB rating of 92 during this stretch. WR Santana Moss is the only skill position player with more than 500 YDS either rushing or receiving. Defensively, the Redskins are 8th in the NFL in yards allowed at 305 YPG. They are also 4th in the NFL against the pass, allowing only 188 YPG through the air.

            Redskins are 4-0 ATS last 4 games as an underdog.
            Over is 5-1 last 6 games as an underdog.

            Key Injuries - DT Albert Haynesworth (ankle) is probable.
            DB DeAngelo Hall (knee) is questionable.

            PROJECTED SCORE: 24


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