Announcement

**Udog** · 12-15-2009, 10:06 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

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Thursday, December 17

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INDIANAPOLIS (13 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (7 - 6) - 12/17/2009, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 19

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DALLAS (8 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 0) - 12/19/2009, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, December 20

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GREEN BAY (9 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 7) - 12/20/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (7 - 6) at TENNESSEE (6 - 7) - 12/20/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (8 - 5) at BUFFALO (5 - 8) - 12/20/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-65 ATS (+18.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (8 - 5) at DETROIT (2 - 11) - 12/20/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
DETROIT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (9 - 4) - 12/20/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (6 - 7) at NY JETS (7 - 6) - 12/20/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (5 - 8) at BALTIMORE (7 - 6) - 12/20/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHICAGO is 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (2 - 11) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 10) - 12/20/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (6 - 7) at ST LOUIS (1 - 12) - 12/20/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 104-137 ATS (-46.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 104-137 ATS (-46.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 81-109 ATS (-38.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (9 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (10 - 3) - 12/20/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (4 - 9) at DENVER (8 - 5) - 12/20/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 20-41 ATS (-25.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-39 ATS (-24.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 12) at SEATTLE (5 - 8) - 12/20/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (11 - 2) at CAROLINA (5 - 8) - 12/20/2009, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 78-53 ATS (+19.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 21

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NY GIANTS (7 - 6) at WASHINGTON (4 - 9) - 12/21/2009, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-15-2009, 10:08 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, 12/17/2009

INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE, 8:20 PM ET NFL
INDIANAPOLIS: 6-0 ATS on Thursdays
JACKSONVILLE: 3-12 ATS in home games

Saturday, 12/19/2009

DALLAS at NEW ORLEANS, 8:20 PM ET NFL
DALLAS: 1-8 ATS the last 4 weeks of the regular season
NEW ORLEANS: 8-1 Over at home vs. NFC

Sunday, 12/20/2009

(TC) GREEN BAY at PITTSBURGH, 4:15 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 13-1 Over off 4+ ATS wins
PITTSBURGH: 8-0 Over at home off 3+ SU losses

MIAMI at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 1-6 ATS off BB ATS wins
TENNESSEE: 11-3 Under off home win

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 18-5 ATS after gaining 175+ rushing yards
BUFFALO: 7-0 Under after allowing 150+ rushing yards

ARIZONA at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: n/a
DETROIT: 14-5 ATS off loss by 28+ points

SAN FRANCISCO at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: n/a
PHILADELPHIA:

ATLANTA at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 5-1 ATS off SU loss
NY JETS: 1-6 ATS off SU win by 21+ points

CHICAGO at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
CHICAGO: 0-6 ATS 2nd half of season
BALTIMORE: 12-4 ATS as favorite

CLEVELAND at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 5-1 ATS off ATS win
KANSAS CITY: 19-4 Over off 3+ ATS losses

HOUSTON at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 10-3 Over in dome games
ST LOUIS: 2-14 ATS off road loss

CINCINNATI at SAN DIEGO, 4:05 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 6-0 Under in December
SAN DIEGO: 16-4 ATS off BB SU wins

OAKLAND at DENVER, 4:05 PM ET
OAKLAND: 3-0 ATS playing with revenge
DENVER: 5-17 ATS off an Over

TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 0-6 ATS off BB Unders
SEATTLE: 8-0 ATS at home if the total is between 38.5 and 42 points

MINNESOTA at CAROLINA, 8:20 PM ET NBC
MINNESOTA: 0-6 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards
CAROLINA: 6-0 ATS at home in December

Monday, 12/21/2009

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
NY GIANTS: 5-1 ATS off BB division games
WASHINGTON: 0-7 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards BB games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 12-15-2009, 10:12 PM

NFL

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 17

8:20 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

Saturday, December 19

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. NEW ORLEANS
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

Sunday, December 20

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. DETROIT
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Arizona is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NY JETS
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing Atlanta
NY Jets are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. BALTIMORE
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Chicago is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games at home
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games
Kansas City is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. ST. LOUIS
Houston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Houston is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. TENNESSEE
Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing Miami

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. SAN DIEGO
Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games on the road
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

4:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home

4:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. PITTSBURGH
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SEATTLE
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

8:20 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CAROLINA
Minnesota is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Monday, December 21

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games
NY Giants are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games
Washington is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Washington is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Giants

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**Udog** · 12-16-2009, 11:35 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 17

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What bettors need to know: Colts at Jaguars
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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 42)

The Indianapolis Colts (13-0) have locked up the division title, a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Jacksonville (7-6) controls its own playoff destiny. If the Jaguars win out they’ll make the playoffs because they hold tiebreaker edges on the rest of the 7-6 AFC teams. A Jags’ loss and their playoff hopes are just about over.

Drawing the line

With all the uncertainty about the Colts’ plans, even the offshore books were afraid to post a number here. Convinced that the Colts' starters will play, they finally listed Indy as a 3-point favorite with the total of 42.

Weather

The forecast calls for scattered showers with temperatures in the lower 60s.

Rest vs. Rust

Indy coach Jim Caldwell has said that Peyton Manning and Co. will play the entire game.

"We're going to approach the 14th game exactly as we did [games] 1 to 13," Caldwell said. "We're going to go out and play just like we have done the previous 13."

Should we believe him? If the Colts started resting their stars now, they wouldn’t play a meaningful game for 34 or 35 days and first-year coach Caldwell knows that’s too long. Look for Manning, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai to begin their vacations next week against Jets.

The only disturbing statement in the entire matter was made by Manning himself, who said he hoped the coaching staff didn’t announce its game plans publically as it has in the past.
Still, all signs point to Manning going the distance here especially since he no longer has Jim Sorgi to back him up. Sorgi was put on IR a week ago leaving rookie Curtis Painter as Manning's back-up and he has not played all season.

The Marshall Plan?

Jacksonville wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker, who was listed as doubtful last week with a calf injury but still played the entire game, practiced fully for the first time in weeks on Tuesday. MSW was a non-factor in the team’s first meeting but has since become the leading wideout for the Jags with 53 catches, 758 yards and six TDS.

Sims-Walker has struggled mightily the past two weeks. He has just two catches despite being targeted 16 times in that span. He’s still the only Jag receiver with the size and speed to take advantage of a Colts secondary that watched Denver's Brandon Marshall catch a record 21 balls in last week's game.
Jags in disarray

The Jaguars may be gunning for a playoff berth but they sure aren't sharp. Last week the Jags had 12 men on the field twice and on a crucial fourth-down play in the fourth quarter they had only 10 men on offense. When Miami safety Yeremiah Bell realized he didn't have a receiver to cover because the Jaguars were short a player he freelanced and knocked down a pass to Sims-Walker that ended the drive at the Dolphins 45.

Colts-Jags part deux

Manning threw for 301 yards as Indy edged Jacksonville 14-12 in Week 1 as the road team covered for the fifth straight time in the series.

The Jaguars have given up 20 TD passes on the season and have just 14 sacks and that should mean that Manning, who leads the NFL with 3,905 passing yards will have a lot of time to throw.

Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 97 yards on 21 carries in the opener and should get a ton of touches in this one. He has scored 14 of the Jags’ 27 TDs.

Injury report

One thing’s for sure, anyone seriously injured for the Colts won’t play for the rest of the regular season. That should eliminate back-up running back Donald Brown, who’s been sidelined for several weeks with a chest injury.

Joseph Addai is not 100 percent but will play. Mike Hart will also get some carries.

DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are questionable and were among 10 players who did not participate in practice on Tuesday.

Jacksonville will be without fullback Greg Lewis (ankle). Montell Owens is expected to start. Cornerback Rashean Mathis is also questionable with a groin injury.

Short week, no problem

The Colts have played four games on Thursday after playing the previous Sunday and won them all. They’ve also scored at least 31 points in each of the games including a 31-24 win at Jacksonville last year.

Trend-setting

The Colts have won 13 of 17 in this series. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.

Indianapolis is the best team in the NFL against the spread. The Colts are 9-3-1 against the number while the Jaguars are one of the worst at 5-8.

Jacksonville has scored less the 20 points eight times this year and is averaging a woeful 9.2 points in losses.

The over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Jacksonville.

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**Udog** · 12-16-2009, 11:51 AM

NFL
Write-Up

Week 15 NFL games

Thursday, December 17

Colts (13-0) @ Jaguars (7-6)-- Not sure how lomg Indy plays starters here at Jacksonville team fighting for playoff spot; Jags (+7) lost 14-12 in opener at Indy in Week 1, outrushing Colts 114-71 but gaining just 228 yards for game. Colts are 6-0 vs spread on road, winning away games by 4-21-22-36-2-8 pts. Jaguars scored three TDs on last 31 drives; in last five games, they have total of just 17 second half points. Game sold out, first Jacksonville home game to do so this season. Last four Jaguar games stayed under total. Visiting teams are 6-3 vs spread in AFC South games.

Saturday, December 19

Cowboys (8-5) @ Saints (13-0)-- Skidding Dallas allowed 9.1/8.1 ypa in last two games, bad news vs explosive Saints, who gained 7.2+ ypa in six of their last seven games. Pokes lost last two home games, 17-7 at Packers, 31-24 at Giants. In their last seven games, Saint defense gave up five TDs. FG on first drive of game, so they're giving inferior foes a chance. Saints are 4-2 as a homw favorite, winning at home by 18-14-21-8-10-21 pts/ NFC South home faves are 7-3 vs spread in non-division games; NFC East road dogs are 1-3. Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total.

Sunday, December 20

Packers (9-4) @ Steelers (6-7)-- Two teams going in opposite directions, as Pack won last five games, allowing 13.3 ppg in last three, while Steelers are in 0-5 freefall, with losses to lowly Chiefs-Raiders-Browns. Pitt is 19 for last 67 on third down, and defense has three takeaways (no INTs) in last five games, as Polamalu's absence takes its toll. NFC North road teams are 6-9 vs spread out of its division (favorite 12-3 vs spread in those games). AFC North home teams are 8-9. Five of last seven Pittsburgh games, four of last five Packer tilts stayed under the total.

Dolphins (7-6) @ Titans (6-7)-- Red-hot Tennessee won six of last seven, but Young's hamstring injury has this off board as I type this; Titans won four in a row at home, scoring 34.5 ppg; they've run ball for average of 188.9 yards in last eight games. Miami won four of last five games, with three of four wins by four or less points. Fish converted 30 of 62 on third down in last four games, held last two foes under 100 yards rushing. Three of last four games for both teams stayed under total. AFC South home teams are 8-7 vs spread in non-division games, AFC East home teams are 10-6.

Patriots (8-5) @ Bills (5-8)-- NE is 0-5 in true road games this year, only win away from home was over Bucs in England; Patriots won season opener 25-24 in Buffalo (-11.5); Brady was 39-53/368 passing, converting 10-16 third down plays. Buffalo is 2-2 under Fewell, allowing 15.3 ppg, allowing only two TDs on 25 drives in last two games. Under is 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games, 3-0 in Patriots'last three. AFC East home underdogs are 5-1 vs spread. Patriots lost three of last five gmaes; will be interesting to see Moss' level of interest here, after he sleptwalked thru Carolina game last week, and got called on it.

Cardinals (8-5) @ Lions (2-11)-- Long trip on short week for Redbird squad that was awful in loss at Candlestick Monday; Arizona is on road for fourth time in last five weeks- their loss to 49ers was just second in seven games on road, but second in row. Detroit gave up 308 rushing yards last week in 48-3 debacle at Baltimore; they've completed less than 50% of passes in each of last three games. Last four Arizona games stayed under total. NFC West favorites are 5-4 vs spread in non-division games (0-0 on road); NFC North underdogs are 5-8, 4-1 at home.

49ers (6-7) @ Eagles (9-4)-- Red-hot Philly won last four games, scoring 32.5 ppg (3-1 vs spread); they're 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home faves, winning at home by 20-19-23-3 points. Eagles scored 12 TDs on last 43 drives, as McNabb has lot of weapons to throw to, and Vick has given spark as Wildcat QB. 49ers are 5-0-1 vs spread this season when dog, but they've lost last five road games, by 3-3-4-6-3 points. Niners close with Lions/Rams; upset here positions them for 9-7 finish. Over is 9-4 in Eagle games this season. NFC East home favorites are 7-7 vs spread. NFC West road dogs are 10-6 vs spread.

Falcons (6-7) @ Jets (7-6)-- Status of both starting QBs has game off board in mid-week; fading Atlanta lost four of last five weeks, taking ball away twice (one INT) in five games. Falcons lost last four road games by 16-9-8-3 points, with 34-31 OT loss to Giants on this field four weeks ago their last road game. Jets won last three games, giving up total of 22 points (one TD on 37 drives, with 16 3/outs). NFC South road dogs are 6-6 vs spread; AFC East favorites are 6-4 vs spread at home. Last three games for both sides stayed under total. Atlanta ran ball for 90-75-61-89 yards in last four games. Not good.

Bears (5-8) @ Ravens (7-6)-- Skidding Chicago is 2-7 since early bye; they've failed to cover six straight and eight of last nine games, going 1-5 on road, 0-4 as road dog- theur only road win was at Seattle, when Hasselbeck sat out with back injury. Ravens are 4-2 as home favorite (5-2 SU) winning home games by 14-31-23-3-45 points. In last five games, Bears gave up average of 149.3 yards on ground, bad news vs Raven squad that ran ball for 308 yards against Lions last week. Last five Bears, six of last seven Raven games stayed under total. NFC North road underdogs are 1-7 vs spread in non-division games.

Browns (2-11) @ Chiefs (3-10)-- KC has already lost at home to Raiders and Bills, they're favored for first time since Week 2 loss to Raiders. Browns had three extra days to prep after upset of hated Steelers; they've covered four in a row, seven of last ten games, are 3-4 as road dog, losing away games by 21-31-13-24-1-9 points. Chiefs lost last three games, scoring 12.3 ppg (four TDs on last 30 drives); they're just 1-6 at home (beat Steelers in OT). AFC North road dogs are 5-5 vs spread in non-division games. AFC West home faves are 3-1 vs spread. Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Texans (6-7) @ Rams (1-12)-- St Louis lost both starting Gs, Bell (hamstring), Incognito (cut after too many dumb penalties); starting RT Smith is out with concussion, so no wonder Ram offense is so feeble (four TDs last 49 drives). Not much home field edge for team that is 6-39 since start of '07; Rams are 0-6 at home, losing by 19-28-36-5-8-10 points (2-4 as home dog). Unsure who QB is for Rams, not that it matters; rookie Null threw five picks in debut, but he's more accurate than Boller. Texans snapped four-game skid last week; they are 3-3 on road this season, with wins by 3-11-21 points.

Bengals (9-4) @ Chargers (10-3)-- Red-hot San Diego won last eight games, are on 16-game December win streak; they covered five of last six games, are 3-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 10-8-8-29 points. Bengals so concerned with Palmer's play that owner went to trainers and asked if his elbow was OK. It is. Bengals are 4-2 on road, but scored 18-17-10 points in last three on road, scoring three TDs on 30 drives. Last week was first time this year a favorite covered a Cincinnati game. AFC North road dogs are 5-5 vs spread outside its division. AFC West home favorites are 3-1 against the spread.

Raiders (4-9) @ Broncos (8-5)-- Denver (-2) won 23-3 at Oakland in Week 3, running ball for 215 yards, outgaining Raiders 372-137; Denver is a home fave for just second time all year (beat Browns 27-6 in Week 2, -3); they're 4-2 at home, with wins by 21-7-3-20 points. Oakland lost QB Gradkowski for year last week (knee) after he emerged as gritty leader, so QB is now huge liability agan, with either Russell/Frye under center. Raiders are 3-3 as road dog, with road losses by 23-37-8-17 points. Home teams are just 2-8 vs spread in AFC West games this year. Under is 9-3-1 in Denver games this season.

Bucs (1-12) @ Seahawks (5-8)-- Favorite is 11-1 vs spread in Seattle games in '09, with Seahawks 4-1 vs spread as favorite this year, winning home games by 28-41-12-3 points (4-2 SU home).Stumbling Tampa Bay lost last five games; they are 3-4 as road underdog, losing road games by 13-3-19-28-2-3-10 points. Seattle already has seven losses by 11+ points; three of their last four games stayed under total, as have Bucs' last four games. Tampa Bay doesn't have a TD in its last two games (25 drives). NFC South dogs are 7-13 vs spread out of its division, 6-6 on road; NFC West home favorites are 5-4.

Vikings (11-2) @ Panthers (5-8)-- Minnesota won five of last six games; they are 4-2 on road, 3-1 as road fave, winning away games by 14-14-28-12 points. Carolina scored just 49 points in last four games (three TDs on last 42 drives); Panthers are 3-3 at home, with home losses by 28-11-7 points. Carolina does have eight takeaways in last two games (+6). None of Minnesota's last seven games was won by less than 10 points. Last four games for both sides stayed under total. NFC North road favorites are 5-2 vs spread outside its division; NFC South underdogs are 7-13 vs spread, 1-7 at home.

Monday, December 21

Giants (7-6) @ Redskins (4-9)-- Big Blue lost six of last eight games, allowing average of 32.4 ppg; they've given up 31 TDs on opponents' last 90 drives; in season opener, Giants (-6.5) beat Redskins 23-17, with Manning averaging a hefty 8.3 yds/pass attempt. Redskins covered last five games (2-3 SU); their last three losses are by 1-3-3 points. Skins are 3-3 at home, with the dog 5-1 vs spread in those games. Six of last seven Washington games went over total, as have nine of 13 Giant games. Underdog is 8-2 vs spread in NFC East tilts this season, road teams are also 8-2.

**Udog** · 12-16-2009, 10:43 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 15

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
The Colts look to build on their 15-5-1 ATS record in their last 21 road games. Indianapolis is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 17

Game 301-302: Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 141.372; Jacksonville 130.995
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 10 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3); Over

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19

Game 303-304: Dallas at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.398; New Orleans 146.077
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7); Over

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20

Game 305-306: Green Bay at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.359; Pittsburgh 129.281
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 8; 42
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2); Over

Game 307-308: Miami at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 133.380; Tennessee 138.831
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 309-310: New England at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.937; Buffalo 130.866
Dunkel Line: New England by 9; 38
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Under

Game 311-312: Arizona at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 135.310; Detroit 120.164
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 15; 50
Vegas Line: Arizona by 11 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-11 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: San Francisco at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 133.656; Philadelphia 136.636
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 44
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+9 1/2); Over

Game 315-316: Atlanta at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 127.153; NY Jets 138.235
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 11; 36
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 317-318: Chicago at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 126.406; Baltimore 135.959
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 9 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 11; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+11); Under

Game 319-320: Cleveland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.911; Kansas City 123.471
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2); Under

Game 321-322: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.883; St. Louis 119.670
Dunkel Line: Houston by 15; 49
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 323-324: Cincinnati at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 133.320; San Diego 141.883
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 8 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6 1/2); Under

Game 325-326: Oakland at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.230; Denver 134.520
Dunkel Line: Denver by 12 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Denver by 14; 37
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+14); Under

Game 327-328: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 124.792; Seattle 126.581
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+7); Over

Game 329-330: Minnesota at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 137.721; Carolina 133.256
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9; 43
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9); Over

MONDAY, DECEMBER 21

Game 331-332: NY Giants at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 131.204; Washington 131.799
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Under

**Udog** · 12-17-2009, 02:36 PM

NFL

Thursday, December 17

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Tips and Trends
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Thursday, December 17

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars [NFL Network | 8:20 PM ET]

Colts (-3, O/U 43): What else can be said about the Colts other than perfection? Indianapolis has already clinched the number 1 seed in the AFC during the Playoffs. Along with a perfect 13-0 SU record, Indianapolis is also 9-3-1 ATS on the season. This includes a road ATS record of 6-0 this year. This Colts offense really comes alive on the road, as they've scored 27 PTS or more in 5 of their 6 road games. This offense is a huge reason they are 5-0 ATS as a road favorite on the season. QB Peyton Manning has been remarkable this season, throwing for more than 3,900 YDS, including 29 TDs. Manning leads the NFL with 3,905 passing YDS, which is a per game average over 300 YDS. As a team, the Colts are 5th in the NFL with 27.6 PPG this season. Defensively, the Colts allow only 16.7 PPG which is 2nd best in the entire NFL. The Colts scored a season low 14 points in Week 1 against the Jaguars.

Colts are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite.
Under is 5-1 last 6 vs. AFC South.

Key Injuries - DE Robert Mathis (quad) is questionable.
T Tony Ugoh (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23

Jaguars: Jacksonville is in desperation mode, needing to win their final 3 games to have any chance at making the playoffs. These two teams met in Week 1, with the Colts winning by 2 points. The Jaguars were +6.5 underdogs and easily covered. Jacksonville is 5-3 ATS as an underdog this year, including a perfect 2-0 ATS record as a home underdog. In both home games as underdogs this season, the Jaguars combined score is is 60-35. QB David Garrard has thrown for nearly 3,000 YDS this season at a completion percentage of 60%. RB Maurice Jones Drew has nearly 1,450 total YDS with 14 TDs. This Jaguars defense has started to come alive over the past 4 weeks, as they've held 4 consecutive opponents to 20 PTS or fewer. This defense will have to again be stellar to give their team a chance to beat a Peyton Manning led Colts team.

Jaguars are 10-2 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog up to a field goal.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games overall.

Key Injuries - CB Rashean Mathis (leg) is questionable.
WR Mike Sims-Walker (calf) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)

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**pm530** · 12-18-2009, 09:16 AM

NFL

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 15
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Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Why Cowboys cover: Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NFC. New Orleans has struggled with shaky performances in their last couple of weeks.

Why Saints cover: They've won and covered in each of the last five meetings. They’re expected to get both Mike Bell and Lance Moore back from injuries. DeMarcus Ware (nine sacks) might not play due to a neck sprain suffered last week. With back-to-back losses to New York and San Diego, Dallas' annual December swoon is in effect once again.

Total (53.5): Under is 5-1 in Cowboys' last six games overall.

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-10)

Why Bears cover: They've won two of three meetings. Baltimore's offensive line is banged up.

Why Ravens cover: They're 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Bears leading receiver Devin Hester will be a game time decision because of a calf injury.

Total (40.5): Under is 5-0 in Chicago’s last five games.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)

Why Patriots cover: They've won 12 straight meetings. They're 5-1 ATS in the last six against the Bills and 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Buffalo. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Why Bills cover: Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games. Randy Moss looked like he gave up last week and could spiral downward with all the controversy surrounding him. Bills covered as 13-point underdogs in a 24-25 loss in Week 1. Patriots have lost three straight road games.

Total (40.5): Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings and 8-3 in the last 11 matchups in Buffalo.

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+11.5)

Why Cardinals cover: They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings. Detroit will be without leading rusher Kevin Smith who has a torn ACL and QB Matthew Stafford. Daunte Culpepper (57.1 rating) has been terrible in place of Stafford.

Why Lions cover: Home team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. Kicker Neil Rackers will not play for Arizona because of a groin injury. WR Larry Fitzgerald will be limited by a knee sprain he suffered last week.

Total (46.5): Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)

Why Browns cover: They're 4-1 ATS in the last five road games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They are 4-1 ATS since Brady Quinn has reclaimed the staring QB role.

Why Chiefs cover: RB Jamaal Charles is averaging 5.3 yards per carry since talking over for Larry Johnson and has five touchdowns in his last five games. He gets to face Cleveland's 29th-ranked rush defense. With Mike Holmgren visiting Cleveland this week, current coach Eric Mangini's confidence could be shaken.

Total (36.5): Over is 9-3-2 in Chiefs' last 14 home games.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (-6)

Why Falcons cover: They've won three of the last four meetings. They're 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. They could get leading rusher Michael Turner back from his ankle injury. Chris Redman has played surprisingly well in place of Matt Ryan.

Why Jets cover: They're 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Darrelle Revis has become one of the best shut down corners in the league and he’ll likely prevent Atlanta wideout Roddy White from having a big day. New York has the NFL's best defense and rushing attack.

Total (40): Over is 5-0 in Falcons' last five road games.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)

Why 49ers cover: Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. They need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive and they’re coming off convincing 24-9 victory over Arizona as 4-point underdogs.

Why Eagles cover: They've won four of the past five meetings. Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Big play threat DeSean Jackson should exploit the 49ers’ 27th-ranked pass defense. San Fran has dropped five straight road games.

Total (43.5): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

Houston Texans at St. Louis Rams (+12.5)

Why Texans cover: They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Mario Williams has really stepped of his play lately and will face a Rams team that has allowed 26 sacks this season. St. Louis has not won a game at home this season. With Marc Bulger out and Kyle Boller hurt and sick, Keith Null, who threw five picks last week, could start at QB for the Rams. Rams are also dealing with swine flu.

Why Rams cover: Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on turf. Steven Jackson could dominate Houston's 20th-ranked rush defense.

Total (43.5): Under is 5-0 in Texans' last five road games and 5-1 in their last six games overall.

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-4)

Why Dolphins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Titans are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Vince Young might not be able to play because of a hamstring injury. Ricky Williams has averaged 104 yards per game since replacing injured Ronnie Brown.

Why Titans cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. RB Chris Johnson has been unstoppable and will test a Miami defense that allows over 106 rushing yards per game. Chad Henne's favorite target, Davone Bess has a sprained ankle.

Total (43): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14)

Why Raiders cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Denver and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings overall. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Why Broncos cover: They've won six of the last eight meetings. Charlie Frye, who has only attempted 33 passes since 2006, will start at QB for Oakland. Brandon Marshall (21 catches, 200 yards) is coming off a record setting performance against one of the league's better pass defenses.

Total (37): Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings and 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Denver.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-6.5)

Why Bengals cover: Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Shawne Merriman is dealing with plantar fasciitis in his foot. Carson Palmer threw for 440 yards and three touchdowns in his last game against SD. Team will be inspired to play well for WR Chris Henry who passed away this week.

Why Chargers cover: They've won seven of the last nine meetings. San Diego is on a roll right now winning eight straight (6-2 ATS) and outscoring its opponents by an average of 14 points per game during the streak.

Total (44): Over is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

Why Buccaneers cover: Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck continues to battle injuries on a weekly basis. Seattle has the league's 29th-ranked pass defense.

Why Seahawks cover: Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings. Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman is really in a funk. He has zero touchdowns and eight interceptions in his last two games. The Seahawks have outscored their opponents by 54 points in six home games.

Total (39.5): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)

Why Packers cover: They're 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. CB Charles Woodson is having the best season of his career and could make it hard on Pittsburgh's banged up receivers. The Steelers are reeling, having lost five straight games.

Why Steelers cover: They've won six of the last nine meetings. They're 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a league leading 47 times. RB Ryan Grant could have a tough time going against the NFL's top rush defense.

Total (39.5): Under is 4-1 in Packers' last five games.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+7)

Why Vikings cover: Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Carolina will be without both starting tackles. Carolina depends heavily on its running game which could struggle against the NFC's second-ranked rush defense.

Why Panthers cover: They're 2-0 ATS with Matt Moore at quarterback. Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Minnesota could be without standout rookie Percy Harvin. Due to injuries and suspensions, Minnesota's linebackers are depleted. Adrian Peterson hasn't cracked 100 yards rushing in his last four games.

Total (42.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+3)

Why Giants cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in Washington and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. Eli Manning is averaging 311 passing yards per game and has thrown eight TD passes since the Giants' Week 10 bye.

Why Redskins cover: They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games. Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. They are expected to get Pro Bowl defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth back from his ankle injury. New York's secondary has allowed 19 touchdown passes in the last eight games.

Total (42): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

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**pm530** · 12-18-2009, 09:26 AM

NFL

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NFL total bias: Hail to the Chiefs
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Before we get started, let me just bask for a second.

I’m coming off my first 3-0 week after getting tortured worse than an inmate at Guantanamo Bay all season. It feels good to be king – at least for one week.

Now, let me introduce you to the team that’s going to help me bum rush the .500 mark to end the season: Kansas City.

The Chiefs have been flying under the radar this season, slowly building an offense with a few intriguing weapons and a poor defense that forces them to be aggressive offensively to remain competitive.

If the Chief’s offense isn’t clicking, don’t worry. The way opponents move the ball against them, it shouldn’t be an issue to see points on the board. In fact, Kansas City has the second-best over record in the NFL, checking in at a surprising 7-4-2, just ahead of San Diego at 7-5-1 and trailing only Philadelphia at 9-4.

However, all the haters just pointed out the Chiefs lost a horrendous, 16-10 slap fight to Buffalo at home last week. But give me a second – put down the Hatorade and check out this stat: this season, Kansas City is 2-0-1 over/under in the following game after failing to crack the over the previous week. Overall, the Chiefs are 4-2 over/under in their past six games.

During that six-game stretch, the team is averaging a modest 16.8 points per game but that’s a full point higher than before its bye week. The biggest change since then is the role of running back Jamaal Charles, who took over the brunt of the carries from the cut Larry Johnson. In those games, he has 93 carries for 489 yards with four touchdowns to go with a receiving score and a kickoff taken back to the house.

The unit also should get a boost from the addition of underappreciated receiver Dwayne Bowe, who missed the past four weeks due to suspension. Through his 40-game career, he has 189 catches for 2,483 yards and 16 TDs

On defense, the team is allowing a pathetic 26.3 points per game this season – just enough to force their own offense to keep the accelerator down the whole game. And it’s not like the group has a glaring strength as opponents have scored 13 times on the ground and 22 times through the air this season.

And that doesn’t bode well as the Browns come calling this weekend. When’s the last time you heard someone say that line with a straight face? Cleveland’s offense can best be described as “peaking.” The unit set franchise and league records for futility earlier this year, but is averaging 20.5 points per game the past four weeks – way up from its season average of 12.2 per contest.

It’s kind of like seeing an unattractive girl from your graduating class lose 30 pounds and ditch the glasses while you are home for the holidays one year. Sure, she’s not a drop out, but now she’ll get the job done when it’s closing time. Welcome to the Cleveland offense.

At closing time this week, don’t miss your chance and back the over in Kansas City.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 37)

This one is virtually a lock for the over. Two teams with poor defenses and underachieving offenses ready to breakthrough. Cleveland is 3-1 against the number in games with a total of 38 or lower this year.

The Chiefs also should expect a rebound performance from quarterback Matt Cassel, who has no touchdowns against six interceptions the past two weeks. If he does virtually anything, this total easily beats the number.

Pick: Over

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 42.5)

Look for points, baby.

San Francisco is traveling across the country, but finally has an offense behind rejuvenated quarterback Alex Smith. Over the past four weeks, the pop-gun 49ers attack has scored at least 17 points each time out.

Meantime, the Eagles managed to hang 40 on the Niners in California last year. With even more weapons this year, Philly figures to be better offensively. Philadelphia also has seen the over hit in eight of its past 10 home games.

Pick: Over

Houston Texans at St. Louis Rams (+11.5, 43.5)

Raise your hand if you have any idea who will play quarterback for the Rams this week. At this rate, they will be bringing in homeless guys to check out their spiral. Yeah, good luck scoring points, even with stud running back Steven Jackson. The team also must replace the recently cut, but talented, guard Richie Incognito.

The Texans figure to take some deep shots and should hit some big plays with quarterback Matt Schaub and receiver Andre Johnson, but it’s highly unlikely they will score more than the 34 they hung on Seattle in Texas last week.

Any chance the Rams crack double-digits and find a way to push this number over the total? No.

Pick: Under

Last Week: 3-0

Overall: 17-25

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**Udog** · 12-19-2009, 09:15 AM

NFL
Dunkel - Sat. POD

Dallas at New Orleans
The Saints look to build on their 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games as a favorite between 3 1/2 and 10 points. New Orleans is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7).

**Udog** · 12-19-2009, 09:21 AM

NFL

Saturday, December 19

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What bettors need to know: Cowboys at Saints
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Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 53.5)

New Orleans (13-0) is looking to wrap up homefield advantage in the NFC playoffs, while Dallas (8-5) has lost two straight and is playing for its postseason life in the comfy confines of Louisiana’s Superdome.

Dallas still controls its own fate if it wins its final three games.

Line movement

New Orleans opened as a 7-point favorite, but the line has moved to 7.5 on most boards, and 8 in a handful. Vegas odds have remained unchanged. The total, which opened at 52.5, has gone up 1-2 points.

Other trends

Dallas is 2-6 ATS against opponents with a winning record. Oddsmakers have done a good job of picking the total – New Orleans’ home games have hit the over three times and the under three times. For two of those games, the final score was within one point of the number.

New Orleans has won the last five meetings against Dallas – all of those games came in December.

Dallas’ defense ranks a solid sixth in the NFL in points allowed (17.9 ppg) but is 21st against the pass (229.1 ypg).

Dallas is 9-1 ATS when allowing more than 250 yards passing in its previous game. The Cowboys allowed 268 in a 20-17 loss to San Diego last week.

New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in its 12 games when favored by 3.5-10, and 5-0 when the game is at home.

December swoon

Dallas has typecast itself as a poor December team. A loss to New Orleans would clinch a 13th straight losing record in the month.

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo has played well in his last two games, accounting for 641 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Though, both outings resulted in close losses. Romo is 5-10 in December starts for his career.

Don’t count on embattled Cowboys kicker Nick Folk for help in the close games. Folk is in a major funk, having missed six of his last nine field goal attempts.

Dallas’ offense has had no problems moving the ball, but scoring is another thing. While the Cowboys are third in the NFL at 403.5 yards per game, they’re 13th in scoring at 22.4 ppg.

Home sweet home

After two near losses at Washington (33-30 in OT) and at Atlanta (26-23), New Orleans returns home, where it has been unstoppable. The Saints’ offense is averaging a stunning 36.7 points per game in the Superdome. Outscoring the Saints does not seem like a viable gameplan for the Cowboys, who haven’t scored more than 24 points in their last six games.

Drew Brees has been impossible to contain at home. In the six games so far, Brees has thrown for 1,926 yards (321 per game) with 18 TD touchdowns and three interceptions.

Expect the homefield advantage to be amped up for this game. According to the New Orleans Times-Picayune, tickets for the Dallas game have the highest demand for any game in Saints history.

Injury report

The big storyline is the status of Cowboys Pro Bowl linebacker DeMarcus Ware, who is a game-time decision after sustaining a sprained neck against the Chargers last week. Ware, who last year led the NFL with 20 sacks, paces the Cowboys this season with nine.

Ware stretched with a trainer Thursday but did not don the pads or take part in any team drills.

In some good news for the Cowboys, safety Ken Hamlin is set to return after missing four weeks with a sprained ankle. Dallas starting running back Marion Barber declared himself “ready to go” despite a broken thumb and pulled quad has slowed him in recent weeks. He is not on the Cowboys’ injury report.

Dallas starting tackle Marc Colombo will miss his sixth straight game with a broken leg.

Meanwhile, the Saints are starting to get a little healthier. Tight end Jeremy Shockey and offensive tackle John Stinchcomb, both listed as questionable Wednesday’s injury report, returned to full practice Thursday.

Cornerback Jabari Greer will not play after undergoing hernia surgery last week. And the status of defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (knee) is also unknown. He did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. Running back Mike Bell (knee) and wideout Lance Moore (ankle), both listed on the injury report, practiced fully Thursday and are expected to play.

Linebacker Scott Fujita was back to a limited practice schedule after missing last week’s game against Atlanta after surgery for a staph infection in the left knee on Dec. 4. He remained questionable for Saturday’s game. The same goes for cornerback Tracy Porter, who’s missed the last four games with a MCL injury.

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**Udog** · 12-19-2009, 10:29 AM

NFL

Saturday, December 19

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Tips and Trends
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Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints [NFL Network | 8:20 PM ET]

Cowboys: The December struggles continue for the Cowboys, as they've lost both games this month SU and ATS. In fact, the Cowboys have lost 4 of their last 5 games ATS. Dallas can still win their division, but they must win their remaining 3 games. Today is only the 2nd game this season the Cowboys are an underdog. They were 3 point underdogs against the Eagles earlier this season and won SU 20-16. Dallas is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road this season. This Cowboys offense has been less that dynamic lately, as they've been held to 20 PTS or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games. QB Tony Romo has thrown for more than 3,550 YDS with 23 TDs on the season. WR Miles Austin continues to be the offensive game breaker for Dallas, as he has 999 receiving YDS along with 10 TDs this year. Dallas is 3rd in YPG with 391, but only have 22.8 PPG to show for it. The Cowboys defense needs to play better, as they've given up 51 PTS combined the past 2 weeks.

Cowboys 1-5 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games overall.

Key Injuries - LB Demarcus Ware (neck) is questionable.
TE Martellus Bennett (concussion) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

Saints (-7.5, O/U 53.5): New Orleans is still a perfect 13-0 on the season. The dream season marches on as they play their 2nd to last regular season game at home today. The Saints are 4-2 ATS at home this season, including a perfect 3-0 ATS when favored by single digits. New Orleans has been playing very close games of late, as they might be feeling some pressure to finish undefeated. New Orleans has lost 5 of their past 7 games ATS. QB Drew Brees leads an offense that is easily the best in the NFL. The Saints are the only team averaging more than 30 PTS on the season, currently with 35.8 PPG. They also lead the NFL in YPG, with 426. Defensively, the Saints have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 23 PTS or fewer. The Saints are 2nd in the NFL in interceptions with 24, including a league high 8 defensive TDs.

Saints are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Over is 12-4-1 last 17 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - TE Jeremy Shockey (toe) is questionable.
LB Scott Fujita (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (OVER - Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 12-19-2009, 11:06 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 20

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What bettors need to know: Vikings at Panthers
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Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+9, 43)

The playoff-bound Minnesota Vikings may have already locked up their second straight NFC North title by the time they kick off against the Carolina Panthers Sunday night.

Minnesota (11-2, 8-4-1 against the spread), coming off an impressive 30-10 win over the Bengals, would clinch the division with a Green Bay loss at Pittsburgh Sunday afternoon or a victory over Carolina.

The Panthers (5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS) are out of playoff contention after losing their past three games, including a 20-10 decision at New England last week.

Line movement

The Vikings opened as 7-point favorites but have since moved to 9-point chalk. The total was posted at 42 and has gone up a point to 43.

Injury report

The Vikings could be without one of Brett Favre's favorite targets, rookie Percy Harvin. The speedster, second on the team with 681 receiving yards and six touchdowns, sat out last week due to migraine headaches and his status for Sunday is uncertain. Harvin is also a dangerous weapon on special teams, ranking second in the league with 29 yards per kickoff return and two TDs.

The injury-plagued Panthers will again be without quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has missed the last two games with a broken finger. Carolina also lost right tackle Jeff Otah to a season-ending knee injury last week, meaning rookie Geoff Schwartz will get his first NFL start. Receiver Muhsin Muhammad (knee) and running back Jonathan Stewart (toe) are banged up, but are listed as probable. Defensively, corner Richard Marshall is questionable (ankle).

Weather

The temperature in Charlotte could dip down to as low as the mid-20s Sunday night. Rain is not in the forecast.

Favre from perfect

Favre's recent mediocre play has brought back memories of his late-season swoon of a year ago.

The aging gunslinger has been intercepted three times in the last two weeks, matching the number of picks he tossed in the first 11 games of the year. His outing last week against Cincinnati was the only time this season he's failed to throw for 200 yards.

Last year, Favre threw nine interceptions in his final five games. The Jets went 1-4 in those games and missed the playoffs after an 8-3 start. It was later discovered that Favre was playing with a torn biceps tendon during that stretch.

"I don't think I'm falling apart in December like most people seem to think," Favre said last week. "I don't feel much different than most guys in that locker room at this stage of the season."

Strength against strength

Carolina's only success on offense this year has come on the ground. Led by featured back DeAngelo Williams, the Panthers have the league's fourth-best running game with 149.9 yards per contest.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are known for their rushing defense. Minnesota allows only 86.9 rushing yards a game, ranking fourth in the NFL.

If the Vikes manage to stuff Williams and the Panthers' running attack, it could be a long night for Carolina. The Panthers' passing game averages less than 170 yards per contest and will be directed by backup Matt Moore for the third straight week.

Trends

Both the favorite and the home team have gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams.

Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine December contests, while the Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their last nine December games.

The under has cashed in Minny's last five games overall and is 7-2-1 in the Vikings' last 10 games as a road favorite. The Panthers have gone under in their last four home games and in each of their last nine home games against teams with winning road records.

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**pm530** · 12-19-2009, 11:58 PM

NFL

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NFL – News and Notes
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East Coast blizzard delays NFL kickoffs, totals drop

The 49ers-Eagles and Bears-Ravens games have been moved from a 1 p.m. ET kickoff to 4:15 p.m. ET due to heavy snow on the East Coast.

A Nor’easter created blizzard-like conditions in the Philadelphia area Saturday, but the snow is expected to stop by Sunday afternoon.

The long-range forecast in the Baltimore area is calling for up to 20 inches of snow and the delayed kickoff afforded crews of nearly 700 additional time to shovel snow out of the stadium, parking lot and nearby roads.

The Bears were scheduled to fly out of Chicago on Friday in hopes of avoiding the storm, but mechanical problems to the plane delayed takeoff and by the time the team switched carriers the window to arrive in Baltimore had closed.

According to report from the Chicago Tribune, the Bears sat on the delayed plane for two hours and did not return to their practice facility until 1:15 a.m. on Saturday morning.

The Baltimore airport closed temporarily Saturday because of the heavy snowfall, but Chicago is expected to fly out at 9 p.m. ET Saturday evening.

The 49ers also anticipated the inclement weather and arrived safely in Philadelphia Friday night.

Dan O’Brien of the Las Vegas Sports Consultants spoke Saturday afternoon regarding the news of the blizzard affecting the spreads and totals in these games.

“I was sure over the next 24 hours people would be taking a shot at the under,” O’Brien said of the Ravens' total. “I’m a little surprised it has only gone down to 39, but I expect the bet will keep going [down].”

The LVSC opened the total at 41 and before news of the weather surfaced the number had already dropped to 40.

“The Philly game had a similar drop, again, not as much as one might think,” stated O’Brien. “We were sitting at 41.5 this morning and now that’s dropped to 40.5. Almost the same move, just one point so far and it could very well keep going.”

If you are going to bet the under in either of these games, it is probably in your best interest to grab them now before they drop further on Sunday. O’Brien said he doesn’t expect any of the totals to go lower than 38 however.

One possible reason O’Brien pointed to for the lack of action on the under was the field condition in the Division-III national championship between UW-Whitewater and Mt. Union. The game was played in Salem, Va., and while temperatures were very cold with snow in the area, the field was clear and the two teams combined for 64 points.

San Francisco had a short week to prepare for Philadelphia after playing Monday night. The team got Wednesday off and only practiced two days leading up to the game.

“We had a good week this week, a couple of days of good practice,” said 49ers head coach Mike Singletary. “It is more about getting mental work this time of year. We are trying to get our guys healthy, fresh and ready for the game.”

“You have to be flexible always,” Bears head coach Lovie Smith said about practice schedules before the team was scheduled to leave on Friday. “This time of the year things can come up like this. For the most part, we’ll just do our regular routine, but do it up there.”

Of course when itineraries change, schedules are thrown off and team preparation takes a hit. O’Brien believes the public may recognize this which could ultimately alter the pointspread.

“You’re sitting at 11 (with the Ravens) and have a team that is basically out of it,” he said. “They are literally flying into a snowstorm during a snowstorm against the Ravens who really need it. I could see people putting two and two together and driving that up a little higher to the 12 or 13 range.”

A third game that could be affected by the wintry weather is the Falcons-Jets mathcup in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

The forecast on weather.com calls for a 30 percent chance of snow showers during the game with a kickoff temperature of 31 degrees. Winds from 14-16 mph are expected to blow from the northwest (sideline to sideline).

The total for the Jets game opened at 40 and has incurred heavy under action. Most shops are currently dangling a number of 36 - the lowest total on the board.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (12/17 - 12/21)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (12/17 - 12/21)

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