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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (12/10 - 12/14)

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  • #16
    NFL


    Monday, December 14


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    What bettors need to know: Cardinals at 49ers
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    Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 44.5)

    Despite reaching the Super Bowl last year, Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals (8-4) continue to fly under the radar. That may change after dominating the Vikings as home underdogs last week. A win tonight and they’ll clinch the NFC West.

    This is the last hurrah for Mike Singletary’s 49ers. Singletary promised the Niners would contend for a playoff spot, but at 5-7, they have to run the table and get some help to get there.

    All is calm

    Early reports call for perfect weather with light winds in the upper-40s. The Niners probably wouldn’t mind a little wind off the Bay to limit some of the Cardinals' downfield passing game.

    On the line

    Arizona opened as a 1.5-point favorite and immediately jumped to 3.5-point picks. The line has not changed the entire week and the total has remained 44.5.

    Injury front

    For Arizona, Tim Hightower, who caught 12 passes for 121 yards in the team's first meeting this season, is listed as questionable with a thumb injury. Beanie Wells will get a bigger workload if Hightower is limited.

    Warner is listed as questionable with a hip injury. He took a big hit on his very last pass of the game in Sunday night’s win over Vikings. He’s practiced so he should be fine but always check the injury report since Warner is just two weeks removed from a concussion.

    San Fran cornerback Nate Clements will not play with a shoulder injury. Offensively the Niners are healthy with the exception of tackle Joe Staley, who is out with a knee injury.

    No Nate, no problem

    Arizona's aerial attack could mean big trouble for San Francisco backers. The Niners' passing defense ranks at the bottom of the league and with top cornerback Clements on the sidelines, Shawntae Spencer will be the one handling All-Pro WR Larry Fitzgerald.

    Clements did a good job of limiting Fitzgerald's big plays. The wideout averaged just 5.8 catches and 65 yards in his last five games against San Fran.

    Spencer says he's not intimidated about covering his former Pittsburgh Panther teammate.

    "He's not the first big receiver I've played, and it's not the first time I've played against him," Spencer told the Sacramento Bee. "I played against Andre Johnson, and I played against Reggie Wayne. So I don't think that's going to be a problem for me."

    Stocking stuffers

    Remember back in 2004 when Kurt Warner's career was seemingly over? Well, Warner has passed for over 3,000 yards again this season, his third straight year eclipsing the lofty mark.

    He's thrown 23 touchdown passes this season and last week he clearly outplayed MVP candidate Brett Favre.

    Arizona has won seven of its last nines games and one of those games the Cardinals lost, Warner was inactive with a concussion. Anquan Boldin was spectacular last week giving Warner two of the league’s top targets.

    Second verse, same as the first?

    The first time these two teams met this season Arizona was a 5.5-point favorite but San Francisco posted a 20-16 victory. It was the second lowest point total of the season for the Cardinals.

    San Francisco went 80 yards for the game-winning drive in the fourth quarter but what bothered Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt even more was when his team got the ball back, penalties halted their potential game-winning drive.

    "I'm really more upset by getting the ball back in the fourth quarter in plus territory and going back 15 yards," he said. "That's horrible. That's unacceptable, and it's what causes you to lose football games."

    Since then things have changed on both sidelines. Warner has been red-hot, throwing for 10 TDs and over 1,000 yards in his last four starts and Alex Smith is starting under center for the Niners.

    New-look Niners

    In San Francisco's first six games of the season, the club's offense looked sad and predictable. Searching for a change, Singletary inserted Smith into the starting lineup and the Niners began to employ the spread offense.

    Smith immediately excelled. San Francisco passed the ball on 21 of its first 24 plays last week and Smith finished 27-for-45 for 310 yards and two touchdowns. Still, the 49ers lost at Seattle 20-17. They couldn’t convert on third downs and dropped nine passes.

    "In every situation we just found a way to screw it up," Singletary said. “Teams that talk about going to playoffs can't do that."

    Trend-setting

    If San Francisco can make some plays on offense this could be a high-scoring affair. Expect to see a lot of Michael Crabtree, who was targeted 12 times by Smith last week, and Vernon Davis, who has 10 touchdown receptions this year.

    The Cardinals, however, are 5-1 on the road this season (5-0 in Warner starts) and typically strong defensively on the road. They are allowing 15.2 points per game in road games, second only to the Colts' league-leading average (15.0).

    Arizona is 6-1 ATS the spread on the road in the last seven games.

    The 49ers have been Monday night monsters covering the spread 15 of their last 20 appearances. They've won their past two home games despite totaling only 30 points in them.

    The Cards have won six of the last nine meetings in the series.


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    Last edited by Udog; 12-14-2009, 11:16 AM.

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    • #17
      NFL


      Monday, December 14


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      Tips and Trends
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      Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

      Cardinals (-3.5, O/U 45): Arizona is 8-4 both SU and ATS on the season. The Cardinals have played 6 road games, and are an impressive 5-1 SU and ATS. This Cardinals defense has been especially stout away from home, as they have held each opponent to 21 PTS or fewer. Arizona has been a very opportunistic defense, as they've forced 6 turnovers in their past 4 games. They also are 3rd in the NFL with 35 sacks. Offensively, the Cardinals move the ball with the arm of QB Kurt Warner. Warner directs the 5th best passing offense in the NFL with 267 yards PPG. Warner has thrown for over 3000 YDS with 23 TDs against 11 INTs. WR Larry Fitzgerald is the main target for Warner, as he is tied for the NFL lead with 10 TD receptions as well as 975 receiving YDS. The Cardinals lost to the 49ers in Week 1 as -5.5 favorites.

      Cardinals are 6-1 ATS last 7 road games.
      Over is 13-5 last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

      Key Injuries - QB Kurt Warner (hip) is probable.
      DE Bertrand Berry (heart) is questionable.

      PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)

      49ers: This is a must win for San Francisco if they have any chance at a playoff berth. This Niners team is 5-7 SU and 7-3-2 ATS on the season. They are 4-2 both SU and ATS at home this year. San Francisco has not lost ATS as an underdog this season, going a combined 3-0-2 ATS. The Niners are in the midst of transforming their offense to a pass first spread offense. The main reason why is starting QB Alex Smith. Smith is again the franchise QB for this team, and he's led his team to a 3-3 SU record thus far. In his past 2 starts he's thrown for 4 TDs and no INTs with QB ratings in the mid 90's in each game. With his development and dedication to the passing game, the Niners have only averaged 14 rushing attempts per game over their past 3 games. The Niners only allow 19.4 PPG, and are 5th in the NFL at stopping the run, at 95.4 YPG. The Niners limited Arizona to 40 rushing yards their previous meeting this season.

      49ers are 6-0-2 ATS last 8 games as an underdog.
      Under is 9-4 last 13 games as a home underdog.

      Key Injuries - T Joe Staley (leg) is doubtful.
      WR Isaac Bruce (ankle) is doubtful.

      PROJECTED SCORE: 17


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