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Yesterday
NCAAB 1-2 -10.40 units
NBA 0-1 -2.20 units
NHL 0-1 -4.80 units
Another terrible day yesterday. Thought I was turning it around too! But then I was reminded how unlucky I've been when my big system play lost by the hook and my NBA play lost by a single point. Damn it's been tough...
NCAAB
8 units - [717] Cleveland State Vikings +10
And now, some thoughts on the Beavers-Ducks. At first glance, I thought, "Whoa, nine and a half is too many points to give.
But then I looked at it closer. Vegas has the line set at 9 1/2. That is very telling. That tells me that despite what I've been led to believe, Vegas does not think it will be very close. What's more telling is the reaction of the public to this line. At wagering sites I've looked at, it's very closer to a 55/45 split (with a little bit more bettors taking the points).
When I read the previews, breakdowns, sip-its... it seems to me that they are baiting the public to take OSU. Oregon State leads the Pac-10 in [fewest] turnovers. Oregon State leads the Pac-10 in 3rd down conversion. Oregon State leads the Pac-10 in 4th down conversion. Despite Oregon's offense, the Beavs actually average more yards per game. How do you leave reading that pointed article? Well after learning that, taking 9.5 sounds like the correct play, right... The Ducks have been an ATM to me all year. Having said that, I'm sitting this one out. I have too much emotional investment in this game. But if I didn't, I'd make the play on Oregon.
Sorry for rambling. Maybe you take something from that. I just think stats don't mean anything in a game like this. Don't get caught up in that. BEST OF LUCK on whatever you play. Aloha!
NCAAB 1-2 -10.40 units
NBA 0-1 -2.20 units
NHL 0-1 -4.80 units
Another terrible day yesterday. Thought I was turning it around too! But then I was reminded how unlucky I've been when my big system play lost by the hook and my NBA play lost by a single point. Damn it's been tough...
NCAAB
8 units - [717] Cleveland State Vikings +10
And now, some thoughts on the Beavers-Ducks. At first glance, I thought, "Whoa, nine and a half is too many points to give.
But then I looked at it closer. Vegas has the line set at 9 1/2. That is very telling. That tells me that despite what I've been led to believe, Vegas does not think it will be very close. What's more telling is the reaction of the public to this line. At wagering sites I've looked at, it's very closer to a 55/45 split (with a little bit more bettors taking the points).
When I read the previews, breakdowns, sip-its... it seems to me that they are baiting the public to take OSU. Oregon State leads the Pac-10 in [fewest] turnovers. Oregon State leads the Pac-10 in 3rd down conversion. Oregon State leads the Pac-10 in 4th down conversion. Despite Oregon's offense, the Beavs actually average more yards per game. How do you leave reading that pointed article? Well after learning that, taking 9.5 sounds like the correct play, right... The Ducks have been an ATM to me all year. Having said that, I'm sitting this one out. I have too much emotional investment in this game. But if I didn't, I'd make the play on Oregon.
Sorry for rambling. Maybe you take something from that. I just think stats don't mean anything in a game like this. Don't get caught up in that. BEST OF LUCK on whatever you play. Aloha!
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